The Journal for Interdisciplinary Middle Eastern Studies Vol. 2, Spring 2018 Print ISSN: 2252-347X Online ISSN: 2252-6959 https://doi.org/10.26351/JIMES2-12 President Trump and : The Effects of the Relocation of the American Embassy on the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process

Christine Sixta Rinehart

Abstract On March 21, 2016, in a political campaign speech to the American Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump vowed “We will move the American Embassy to the eternal capital of the Jewish people, Jerusalem” and, true to his word, a year after the election on December 6, 2017, he announced that the American Embassy would be moved from Tel Aviv to its new location in Jerusalem. The purpose of this article is to examine the reasons for this decision and to discuss the possible foreign policy implications of the transfer, particularly concerning the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process.

Keywords President Trump; Foreign Policy; Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process; Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu; President Mahmoud Abbas.

Author’s contact: Prof. Christine Sixta Rinehart, The University of South Carolina Union; [email protected]

23 Christine Sixta Rinehart

24 Introduction

(AIPAC), the Republican presidential candidate Donald John Trump vowed thatOn March America 21, 2016,would in “move a speech the to American the American Embassy Israel Publicto the Affairseternal Committee capital of the Jewish people, Jerusalem”. Later that day, in a rebuttal at AIPAC, the Democratic presidential candidate1 Hillary Rodham Clinton stated, “We need steady hands, not a president who says he’s neutral on Monday, pro-Israel on Tuesday, and who-knows-what on Wednesday because everything’s negotiable.” President Trump2 announced that Jerusalem would be the new location of the American Embassy True to and, his whileword, there a year were after cheers the election of jubilation on December in Israel, 6, a storm2017, of controversy immediately broke out across the Arab world. Many talking heads speculated that President Trump’s opportunity for solving3 the Israeli- table after the relocation of the American Embassy. PalestinianThe purpose conflict of this was article now inis tojeopardy examine as the the reasons Arabs would for moving never the come American to the embassy to Jerusalem and to consider the foreign policy implications of the embassy relocation, most particularly concerning the reactions to the move and the possibility of there being a new Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

The History of the Capital of Israel which designated a partition plan that envisioned Jerusalem as a separate 4“international city”, was passed byOn the November United 29,Nations 1947 but Resolution the war 181 that (II), followed Israel’s declaration of the new situation that had been created the United Nations revised its earlier independence in 1948 ultimately left Jerusalem as a divided city. Owing to Jerusalem “should be accorded special and separate treatment…and should decision and passed Resolution 194 on December 11, 1948 which stated that

Sarah Begley, “Read Donald Trump’s Speech to AIPAC,” Time

1 Ryan Teague Beckwith, “Read Hillary Clinton’s Speech to AIPAC,”, March Time 21, 2016, http://time. com/4267058/donald-trump-aipac-speech-transcript/ (Accessed on February (Accessed 6, 2018). on 2 , March 21, 2016, Stevehttp://time.com/4265947/hillary-clinton-aipac-speech-transcript/ Holland and Maayan Lubell, “Trump Recognizes Jerusalem as Israel’s Capital, ReversingFebruary 9, Longtime 2018). U.S. Policy,” Reuters 3 , December 6, 2017, https://www.reuters.com/ article/us-usa-trump-israel/trump-recognizes-jerusalem-as-israels-capital-reversing-The United Nations longtime-u-s-policy-idUSKBN1E01PS (Accessed on February 9, 2018). 4 “Resolution 181 (II). Future Government of Palestine,” , November 29, 1947, https://unispal.un.org/DPA/DPR/unispal.nsf/0/7F0AF2BD897689B785256C330061 D253 (Accessed on February 9, 2018). President Trump and Jerusalem be placed under effective United Nations control.”5 Following this resolution,25 most countries moved their embassies from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv which also became the center for the establishment of new embassies. of the western half of Jerusalem and in control of the eastern half- When the fighting ended in 1949, the armistice border left Israel in control which included the . Lt. Col. of the Israeli Army and Lt. Col. Abdallah al-Tal of the Jordanian6 Army drew the lines on a map after the war with a green wax crayon (the origin of the term the “”) and this map later became part of the Israel-Jordan Armistice Agreement of April 3, to be located in Jerusalem and the center of government activity moved from 1949. In 1950 Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion ordered the Israeli capital Tel Aviv where it had been functioning because of the dangerous situation in Jerusalem during the war. The United Nations’ General Assembly then stated that “Jerusalem should be placed under a permanent international responded by reconfirming Resolution 303 passed on December 9, 1949 which regime.”7 snipers on the city line between East and who frequently shot During the period from 1949 until the 1967 War the Jordanians placed at citizens and other targets making life in the adjacent Israeli neighborhoods despite the promises they had made in the armistice agreement, not only did very difficult because of the constant violence and gunfire. The Jordanians, not allow Jews free access to the holy sites, including the and the cemetery on the , but also desecrated Jewish holy sites during these nineteen years. 8 Old City from the Jordanians and, since this part of the city contains some of During the June 1967 War Israel took over control of and the the most important historical and holy sites for Jews, Christians, and Muslims, regardless of who controls it, it has continued to be a center of contention. In addition, directly after the end of the war, Israel expanded the municipal boundaries of Jerusalem by an additional 70 square kilometers to include 5 Eylon Aslin-Levy, “Jerusalem Already Has Plenty of Embassies—Just Not to Israel,” The Tower

Oren Libermann,, Issue 48 (March“Why Moving 2017), http://www.thetower.org/article/jerusalem-already-has-the US Embassy to Jerusalem is so Controversial,” CNN, plenty-of-embassies-just-not-to-israel/ (Accessed on February 28, 2018). 6 7 DecemberAslin-Levy, “Jerusalem 6, 2017, https://www.cnn.com/2017/01/24/middleeast/donald-trump-us-Already Has Plenty of Embassies.” embassy-israel-explainer/index.htmlIsrael (Accessed Ministry on February of Foreign 10, Affairs2018).

8 “Divided Jerusalem (1948-1967),” , 2013, http://mfa. gov.il/MFA/AboutIsrael/Maps/Pages/Jerusalem%20Before%20the%20Six%20Day%20 War%20-1949-1967-.aspx (Accessed on February 22, 2018). Christine Sixta Rinehart some26 of the surrounding West Bank area. Although Israel had made Jerusalem as more evidence by the Arabs and to be more evidence of the Israeliits capital state’s in 1950, desire the for post-war more land. additions9 to the city of Jerusalem were seen

passedIn July the 1980 United Israel Nations’ passed Security the Basic Council Law of passed Israel whicha resolution declared condemning Jerusalem Israel’sto be the annexation capital of ofthe East Jewish Jerusalem people. and Immediately declared the after law theto be 1980 a violation Law was of international law. Israel offered Palestinians living in Jerusalem the option of becoming permanent10 residents of the state of Israel but most Palestinians declined the offer as they refused to acknowledge Jerusalem as the capital of Israel while many Palestinians continued to refuse to recognize Israel’s right to exist11 at all. The United Nations and the European Union still assert the validity of

Jerusalem should be an international city that is administered by the United Nations.Resolution 181 (II) which was passed on November 29, 1947 and states that Arabs refused12 to accept allowing the Jews to have any presence in their ancestral homeland Whileand were the Jews so incensed accepted by this the with resolution anticipation that inthey 1947 went the toPalestinian war as a result of it. Now the Jews will neither give up control over Jerusalem to make it an international13 city administered by the United Nations nor will they split the city with the Palestinians. The opportune time for the Palestinians to have

Donaldpart of Jerusalem Trump passed Is Not in The 1947. First This is. . now. a moot point. Although President Trump has never publicly elaborated upon his reasons for moving the American Embassy back to Jerusalem, it is speculated that one purpose of the embassy move is to solidify his vote and support from the Christian right in the . The Conservative Christian right views the Jews as God’s chosen people and as a close ally of the United States in an often treacherous Middle East. The Christian right supports Israel as a beacon of

9 Ibid. Libermann, “Why Moving the US embassy to Jerusalem is so Controversial.” Beverley Milton-Edwards, The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: A People’s war (New York: 10 11 The United Nations Routledge, 2009), pp. 121-122. 12 “Resolution 181 (II). Future government of Palestine,” , November 29, 1947, https://unispal.un.org/DPA/DPR/unispal.nsf/0/7F0AF2BD897689B785256C330061D253Jerusalem Center for Public(Accessed Affairs on February 25, 2018). 13 Liora Chartouni, “70 Years after Resolution 181: An Assessment,” , November 26, 2017, http://jcpa.org/article/70-years-un-resolution-181- assessment/ (Accessed on February 25, 2018). President Trump and Jerusalem freedom and the last defense against Islamic terrorism and fundamentalism.27 Pastor John Hagee, an evangelical television preacher, has commented:

promise closely because if President Trump moves the embassy I can assure you that 60 million evangelicals are watching this into Jerusalem, he will historically step into immortality. He will be remembered for thousands of years for his act of courage to treat Israel like we already treat other nations. 14 Thus, if President Trump strengthens America’s already strong relationship with Israel, he can count on the votes of the Christian right but he also wants to create greater solidarity between the and the Americans since Israel is a strong ally with state of the art technology in the war against international terrorism. Unlike his predecessor President Obama, President Trump wants to have a great relationship with Israel and hopes to create a friend and colleague in Prime Minister Netanyahu. relocating the United States’ Embassy in Israel since a whole slew of other President Donald Trump is not the first American president to suggest American presidents have also suggested moving the American Embassy back to its original location, often promising to do this in their campaign speeches the Democratic primaries, declared that he supported Jerusalem as Israel’s and political debates. In February 1992 William Jefferson Clinton, during capital, criticized George H.W. Bush for having “repeatedly challenged Israel’s sovereignty over a united Jerusalem” and claimed that he and Vice President that he would move the embassy to Jerusalem the day that he was sworn in Gore would do better. In his 2000 election campaign George W. Bush stated but he also reneged on his promise. Barack Obama also promised to move the embassy stating that Jerusalem must not be divided and must remain the Israeli capital. Most likely15 these electoral promises were only made in an effort to secure Jewish votes from the American public or perhaps the previous presidents lost their nerve after being elected because of the international unpopularity of

Kaitlyn Schallhorn, “Why Trump’s Promise to Move US Embassy to Jerusalem is So Controversial,” Fox News 14 controversial.html , February 23, 2018, http://www.foxnews.com/ Katiepolitics/2018/02/23/why-trumps-promise-to-move-us-embassy-to-jerusalem-is-so- Pavlich, “Reminder: U.S. Presidents Have Promised to Move the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem for Decades,” (Accessed Townhall on March 12, 2018). 15 , December 6, 2017, https://townhall.com/tipsheet/ katiepavlich/2017/12/06/reminder-us-presidents-have-promised-to-move-the-us- embassy-to-jerusalem-for-decades-n2418654 (Accessed on February 10, 2018). Christine Sixta Rinehart moving28 the American Embassy to Jerusalem. Despite what the American press would have the public think, the only thing that is different about President

American presidents managed to stall the moving of the embassy by signing a Donald Trump is that he is fulfilling his promise. Each of these previous waiver every 6 months thus effectively ignoring the . requiringUnder thethe sponsorship United States of toSenator move Bob its embassyDole in 1955 to Jerusalem the American by December Congress, by a large majority, passed the Jerusalem Embassy Act (Public Law 104-45) While the purpose of this act was to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel 31, 1999 but no American president has ever actually implemented this law. relocation of the embassy. TIME even reported in its international edition that,successive although presidents both the have Clinton16 all signed Administration waivers every and the 6 months Israeli togovernment delay the “support the move to Jerusalem in principle, they would prefer to see the peace process more stabilized before confronting the explosive issue of Jerusalem.” Successive presidents were not able to muster enough courage to follow17 through on the relocation of the embassy and, even after President Trump signed the order to make Jerusalem the capital, he also quietly signed another

Most likely, President Trump was not yet politically ready or able to tackle the document waiving the 6 month period that was required for this to be done. At the present time the United States has a consulate general in Jerusalem onmassive David implications Flusser Street this while would the have embassy for the is locatedIsraeli-Palestinian on Hayarkon conflict. Street in Tel Aviv and it can choose to make several decisions in creating a new embassy. leasing from Israel and build an embassy in the empty lot. The second option thatThe the first United possible States choice has is to to exchange utilize the the plot American of land consulate that the USin Jerusalem has been for the embassy in Tel Aviv which would allow the two diplomatic institutions to just switch places creating a swift and easy relocation for the embassy. The buying a new building and a fourth option is to keep the embassy in Tel Aviv asthird it currently option is isto and start not from to do scratch anything. by finding The details a new have location not yet and materialized building or concerning the final plans for the American Embassy. Politifact 16 Louis Jacobson, “Is Donald Trump Correct About the History of the Jerusalem Embassy (Accessed Act?,” , December 6, 2017, http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2017/ dec/06/donald-trump/donald-trump-correct-about-history-jerusalem-embas/ inon IsraelFebruary to Jerusalem,”10, 2018). Time 17 Olivia B. Waxman, “The 1995 Law behind President Trump’s Plan to Move the U.S. Embassy , December 5, 2017, http://time.com/5049019/jerusalem- embassy-history/ (Accessed on February 10, 2018). President Trump and Jerusalem

According to speculation, while Trump’s Administration plans on opening29

forthe sitesnew embassyin the Holy in CityJerusalem and it inis believed2019, Benjamin that an Netanyahuexisting consular expects building to the see in the new embassy opened in 2018. The State Department has begun looking Secretary of State RexArnona W. Tillerson, may fit the on bill, the whichother hand,would has make stated it possible that the for process18 Ambassador of moving David the M. Friedman and his staff to move in by the end of 2018. embassy…probably would take scouting place first a site, by: commissioning a design and [then] building the embassy compound. [It] could take up to six years,

that’saccording pretty to ambitious.State Department officials, and cost $600 million to $1 billion [to be built]19 no earlier than three years out, and

theirBecause embassies of the constantly in Tel Aviv. brewing More conflictimportantly over theJerusalem United very Kingdom, few countries Turkey, Belgium,have located Spain their and embassies Sweden inall Jerusalem have consulates-general and, currently 86 located countries in haveEast Jerusalem while the consulates-general of the United States, France, Italy, and

East Jerusalem, and the Vatican also has an Apostolic Nunciature there. GreeceThe differenceare located between in West aJerusalem. consulate andThe anEuropean embassy Union is that has an anembassy office inis permanent and is led by an ambassador while a consulate is not permanent and includes a representative of one government to another government. There may be many consulates in a country and there may be several consuls who work in the consulate but there is only one ambassador who usually lives in an embassy and this is the major representative arm of the country in a foreign nation. The embassy is where the really important work is done and, to carry out the necessary daily tasks, the ambassador also has a large staff. What is problematic concerning the diplomatic arrangements in Israel is that the consulates-general are typically used to negotiating with the Palestinians and the embassies in Tel Aviv are used to working with Israel. The hullabaloo over the capital of Israel and the location of embassies causes many complications concerning the Israeli-Palestinian conflict since countries The New York Times 18 Markisrael-embassy-jerusalem.html Landler, “U.S. Presses to Relocate Embassy to Jerusalem by 2019,” Ibid. , January 18, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/18/us/politics/trump- (Accessed on February 22, 2018). 19 Christine Sixta Rinehart are30 virtually picking sides according to the choice they make about where to locate their embassy. While those countries that have consulates-general in Jerusalem do not recognize Israel’s authority over the city of Jerusalem, Israel treats the consulates as though they are normal in Israel without there being to any state since none of them have asked for an exequatur, which is the diplomaticany repercussions permission even that though is required these consulates by international are not law.officially The diplomaticattributed functions carried out by these consulates cover all of Jerusalem, apart from Israel, and even include the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. According to one Wikileaks cable, one consulate was “careful not to deal with20 any Israeli recognition of their claims to sovereignty over Jerusalem.” ministry official directly” even on a social basis, lest this 21be “interpreted as Policy Implications for the Palestinian Territories Arab reactions to President Trump’s statements concerning the embassy have been reactionary to say the least, perhaps one might even say over-reactionary. In January the Iraqi Shiite cleric, Muqtada al-Sadr, for instance, commented on his website that moving the US embassy to Jerusalem would represent a declaration of open war against Islam and called for the closure of the Israeli and US embassies in Islamic countries. The head of the Arab League Ahmed Aboul-Gheit called President Trump’s decision “dangerous and unacceptable”, that President Trump’s decision was “against international law and raised questionsa “flagrant aboutattack Americanon a political efforts solution” to support for the peace”Israeli-Palestinian between Palestine conflict and Israel. Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki added that Palestinians can no longer trust America in the peace process because it has “positioned itself as a party in a dispute and not as a mediator”. Al-Maliki then added, “America is being an aggressor against the Palestinian people and against international law.” Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said the decision put the “region on the verge of explosion” and Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar’s foreign minister, asked for “all possible measures under international law” to be taken while the Lebanese foreign minister called on the Arab League to impose sanctions on the United States saying: “Pre-emptive measures must be taken against the decision ... beginning with diplomatic measures, then

22 political, Aslin-Levy, then “Jerusalem economic Already and Hasfinancial Plenty ofsanctions.” Embassies—Just Not to Israel.” Ibid. 20 “Arab League Condemns US Jerusalem Move,” Al-Jazeera 21 22 , December 10, 2017, http:// www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/12/arab-league-condemns-move-dangerous- illegal-171209185754563.html (Accessed on February 10, 2018). President Trump and Jerusalem

Relations have soured between the Palestinians and the Trump31 Administration since President Trump’s declaration and the Palestinian Authority president, Mahmoud Abbas, who vowed never again to take part in peace negotiations brokered by the United States, in a recent speech, told President Trump, “May your house be destroyed.” The Trump Administration or half of the funding that the United States usually provides to a United in the usual tit for tat style response stated that it would withhold $65 million Nations agency that aids Palestinian refugees. From the standpoint of the rhetoric being used there is currently a stalemate.23 President Trump will most likely make some attempt to negotiate the Israeli- Palestinian peace process later in his presidency, just as every president has done before him, although it is likely that this attempt will take place after the embassy has been moved to Jerusalem in 2019 and would be greatly helped his rhetoric. Looking at the time frame, Israeli- Palestinian negotiations could if President Abbas was no longer in office or if he could at least tone down re-commence if President Trump is re-elected in 2020 – which could happen and, despite frequent squabbling in the Republican Party, the conservatives since it is very difficult to vote out an incumbent president in the United States keep the support of the party independents for his candidature. While the give President Trump an approval rating of close to 40 percent and24 he could election, President Trump must have a Republican majority in Congress to get Democratic Party is still struggling to rebuild itself after its loss in the 2016 anything done and this is possibly his most problematic concern. If all of the

The Palestinians have several diplomatic issues that they also need to above takes place President Trump would likely start the negotiations in 2021. resolve before the peace process can take place such as their problematic lack of organization that has led to a situation in which there is really no one in charge that can be a spokesperson for the people. In the Palestinian Territory there are several organizations that function as political parties, terrorist organizations and local political overlords. These include Hamas, the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Fatah, the PLO, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and various other groups all of which are vying for or a competent leader that can carry them through a peace process and, while control. There does not seem to be a unified voice coming from the Palestinians

Gallup 23 Landler, “U.S. Presses to Relocate Embassy to Jerusalem by 2019.” (Accessed on 24 “Presidential Approval Ratings – Donald Trump,” , February 25, 2018, http://news. gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx March 1, 2018). Christine Sixta Rinehart

Mahmoud32 Abbas is the President of the state of Palestine and the Palestinian National Authority, he is neither popular nor well-liked, and has never been able to unite the Palestinians because his party Fatah and the main opposing party Hamas have not been able to work together. Besides the lack of leadership issue, the Palestinians do not really know what they want from Israel with some wanting an independent state, some wanting the obliteration of Israel and some hoping that Palestine can replace the former state of Israel. Since the Palestinians tend neither to be particularly tolerant nor open to compromise there are also some who even want the extermination of the Jewish race. President Abbas himself has repeatedly stated that he will never make concessions to Israel and other Palestinian leaders have stated that there is no such thing as a Jewish25 race. When one side does not recognize the existence of the other side there is little26 to no room for negotiation and this is supported by the fact that no Palestinian leader has ever been given a mandate to make peace with Israel and the leaders that do try to seek a solution to the impasse are denounced as traitors. Subsequently the Palestinians must understand the importance of compromise and tolerance before they can hope to advance any steps towards peace in the region. The

achieveright atmosphere since most must Jewish first Israelis be established and Palestinians so that areboth segregated parties come from to birth the andtable prejudices with a minimum grow which of frustration contribute and tremendously hatred and tothis the will lack be of difficult trust and to the enmity that exists between the two groups.

Policy Implications for Israel The Israeli response to the embassy relocation has been euphoric but there was disappointment expressed by both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mayor Jerusalem Nir Barakat that the move was not going to occur sooner and the Minister of Education Naftali Bennett from the orthodox-nationalist Jewish Home party said:

There can be no peace based on the division of Jerusalem. Delaying the US Embassy move will in fact have an opposite effect

Arutz Sheva, August (Accessed on 25 Dalit Halevi & Elad Benari, “Abbas: We’re Not Making any Concessions,” Khaled7, 2013, Abu http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/169692 Toameh, “Why Palestinians Cannot Make Peace with Israel,” Gatestone Institute InternationalApril 10, 2018). Policy Council 26 palestinians-peace-israel , July 13, 2015, https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6142/ (accessed March 1, 2018). President Trump and Jerusalem

and damage the prospect of a lasting peace by nurturing false 33 expectations among the Palestinians regarding the division of Jerusalem, which will never happen. Only recognizing a united Jerusalem under Israeli sovereignty will end illusions and pave the way to a sustainable peace with our neighbors. 27 The Minister of the Environment Ze’ev Elkin and the Minister of Tourism Yariv Levin both expressed disappointment that the embassy relocation would not occur sooner. MK Zehava Galon, head of the left-wing Meretz party, on the other hand, welcomed the development by saying that the decision was right and timely and that the White House was indicating that the Trump Administration was trying to create a process with the Palestinians. West Jerusalem, she said, is the capital of Israel, and would be so with or without the embassy. Moving the embassy would not enshrine sovereignty and, if anything, it would only encourage more states to recognize the Palestinian state. Currently, however, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu28 is facing a political corruption scandal and his political future is murky at best. Shaul Elovitch, an Israeli telecommunications mogul and friend of Benjamin Netanyahu, is being for broadcasting positive media coverage of Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife investigated for reputedly being given millions of dollars’ worth of benefits Sara. The police have questioned the Prime Minister about this matter eight times during the last fourteen months and, if the police decide to press charges, this will be the third case involving Netanyahu that is being investigated. 29

The Israeli people will then have to find a new prime minister if Netanyahu is indicted and finding someone with as much experience and political influence may be not so easy to find so the Israelis could be at a disadvantage in the In his effort to support President Trump Mike Evans, the Christian pro- peace process if Netanyahu leaves office. Israel activist, has designated President Trump as Cyrus the Great and has even erected a series of billboards to this effect. In his moment of need, Prime 30 Raphael Ahren and Raoul Wottliff, “Israel Disappointed with Trump for Not Moving Embassy to Jerusalem,” The Times of Israel 27 (Accessed on February , June 1, 2017, https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel- Ibid.disappointed-with-trump-for-not-moving-embassy-to-jerusalem/ 28, 2018). 28 The New York Times 29 Isabel Kershner, “Benjamin Netanyahu Is Questioned in the 3rd Corruption Case in Israel,” , March 2, 2018 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/02/world/The New York Timesmiddleeast/israel-benjamin-netanyahu-corruption.html (Accessed on March 12, 2018). 30 Samuelembassy-israel.html Goldman, “With the Embassy Move to Jerusalem, a Biblical Trump?, , March 8, 2018 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/08/opinion/trump-jerusalem- (Accessed on March 12, 2018). Christine Sixta Rinehart

Minister34 Netanyahu has literally been riding this wave and has been calling President Trump “Cyrus the Great”, the king of Persia who was commanded by God to allow the Jews to return to their ancestral home and rebuild the temple, and comparing him to other Jewish-friendly leaders such as Lord Balfour. In a sense, by relocating the embassy to Jerusalem, President Trump has provided assistance to the recognition of Jerusalem as the internationally recognized capital of Israel but, according to the Palestinians, he is choosing

Israeli citizens also31 seem optimistic about the embassy move to Jerusalem sides in the conflict. although they are worried about the violence that might occur and this has been expressed by one female university student who said:

I’m really happy about it because from the beginning it needed to be in Jerusalem because it’s the . I think that because of Trump it’s a problem because people don’t like him. If it was Obama it wouldn’t be as much of a problem. So it’s very scary for me because there will be violence by the Palestinians. But it’s OK. We’re used to it.

Another woman who served in a combat role in the Israeli Defense Forces said:

It will be worth [the violence] to me because we need to win the war between Jews and Arabs inside Israel and put limits on them, so they can’t be violent every time they are upset. 32 Another man commented:

They [Palestinians] are insulted by everything, so what should

33 Ed Kilgore,we do? “Bibi They and arethe Christianinsulted Right by me Agree: being Trump here, is sothe should New Cyrus I go? the Great,” New York Magazine 31 the-christian-right-trump-the-new-cyrus-the-great.html , March 5, 2018 http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/03/bibi-and- Jerusalem,” The Jerusalem Post (Accessed on March 12, 2018). 32 Daniel K. Eisenbud, “Israelis Express Conflicting Emotions about US Embassy Move to , December 6, 2017 http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/ Ibid.Israelis-express-conflicting-emotions-about-US-Embassy-move-to-Jerusalem-517225 (Accessed on February 28, 2018). 33 President Trump and Jerusalem

It is evident that Israeli citizens fear the outbreak of a third intifada should35 the peace process not bear fruit and have little sympathy or tolerance for Palestinians because their only form of communication is often violence. Jewish American responses to Trump’s decision have, on the other hand, been somewhat varied. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee tweeted:

Todays actions @POTUS is an important, historic step, for which we are grateful. We urge the president to quickly relocate our Embassy to Israel’s capital.

Malcom Hoenlin, president of the Conference of Presidents of Major American commented that Donald Trump was “doing the right thing” and added: Jewish Organizations, which is made up of more than fifty Jewish organizations When President Trump visited the Western Wall and made a declaration recognizing Jerusalem as holy to the Jews after the denunciation of UNESCO, there was not even one warm-up, not one demonstration, because when you do the right thing, you do not have to ask questions, you just do it. 34 The Anti-defamation League, the Zionist Organization of America, the Smith Weisenthal Center, the Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC), and AIPAC have also been fairly supportive about the relocation as can be seen by Norm Coleman, the RJC’s Chairman’s comment:

President Trump is doing what he does so well: recognizing the reality on the ground. No more false news — Jerusalem is Israel’s capital. 35 Others have, however, not been so appreciative with the liberal Mideast policy group saying that President Trump’s decision was less likely to help

solve JTA, the“How Israeli-Palestinian US Jewish Groups are conflictReacting andto Trumps’ the New Recognition Israel of Fund Jerusalem and as Ameinu Israel’s Capital,” The Jerusalem Post 34 How-US-Jewish-groups-are-reacting-to-Trumps-recognition-of-Jerusalem-as-Israels- , December 7, 2017 http://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/ Ibid. capital-517280 (Accessed on February 26, 2018). 35 Christine Sixta Rinehart commenting36 that they thought Trump’s decision was a dangerous political

President Trump’s act of moving the American36 embassy to Jerusalem move and would lead to more conflict in the region. may well give the Israelis an even greater upper hand since, in addition to the wealth, power and military might it has, Israel, will now have the full backing of an American president that is not too concerned about what the rest of the world thinks. Although most media outlets in the United States and throughout the world would have their audiences believe that President Trump is universally hated by the American people, this is simply not true. Some Americans hate President Trump and yet other Americans love him. The silent component of the American population, that is those who elected Trump, did so because they perceived him to be honest and because he hit back at the critical liberal left. For Americans who believed that their country was heading in the wrong direction, President Trump became the answer and for many Americans his election was a great step in the right direction. The liberally biased American media which is still in disbelief, as evidenced by its come to grips with reality and stick to reporting the facts, they are in danger reporting, has still not come to terms with the 2016 election and, unless they of once again underestimating the outcome of the 2020 presidential elections While the Israelis have an excellent negotiator on their side in President as they did in the 2016 presidential elections. Trump they have already given a lot in their struggle for peace and one has to wonder whether they are now despondent about the prospects for peace. The younger generations who grew up in Israel during the intifadas are simply weary of the Palestinian violence and, if it ever existed, any “understanding” they may have had for Palestinian terrorism and sympathy for the Palestinian cause just does not exist anymore. The next component in the Israeli-Palestinian equation concerning the peace process is Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who is from the right wing party Likud done of Benjamin Netanyahu, he is not only pictured as being extremely37 ambitious and most . In political psychological profiles concerned about his personal success but also prepared to exploit other people to accomplish his agenda. He is considered to have a “lone wolf” personality and will “go it alone” if necessary, regardless of the criticism he receives along the way from the Israeli public and government. Netanyahu

Ibid.

36 Ofer Feldman and Linda O. Valenty (eds.), Profiling Political Leaders: Cross-Cultural Studies 37 Shaulof Personality Kimhi, “Benjamin and Behavior Netanyahu: A Psychological Profile Using Behavioral Analysis,” in

(Connecticut: Praeger, 2001), pp. 149-164. President Trump and Jerusalem believes his purpose is to safeguard his ancestral homeland from danger37 for him to consider the opinions and preferences of others. Despite the and, since he is uncompromising and steadfast to a fault, it is 38often difficult correct circumstances. aboveNetanyahu profile, however,will make Netanyahu peace with does the Palestiniansbelieve peace if ishe possible views peace under to the be key to the survival of his ancestral homeland of Israel and, while peace with the Palestinians will most certainly lead to the preservation of Israeli lives, are more important than public opinion in Israel. In this regard President Trumpthe prime and minister Prime Minister will also Netanyahupersevere alone may seeif he each finds other that hisas equals personal that goals are able to use each other to achieve their goals, and this, at least from the Israeli side, may make peace with Palestine possible for Israel. President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu will probably approach the negotiating table with the same mutual respect for each other that they publicly demonstrate. The next variable for the Israelis in any Palestinian-Israeli peace process39 concerns how much they are prepared to give. Since the Israelis are in a position of power it is important for them not to miss any reasonable chance to accommodate the Palestinians due to misled arrogance or grandstanding. If, for instance, the Palestinian acquisition of what they consider to be their right to Jerusalem is not an option, what might the Israelis be able to do for

Would it be possible to agree to increase the amount of territory the Palestinians the Palestinians to sweeten the offer besides agreeing to a two-state solution?

Wouldwill control it be inpossible the West to Bank,facilitate which the islocation where theyof industry should inmost Palestine likely allso live?that Can more water and other natural resources be provided to the Palestinians? package might accompany any offer of peace Israel might make since they will Palestinians can have jobs and a better standard of living? What type of aid could make in peace negotiations but it is clear that they will have to reach out muchhave to more ante since up the Palestine shekels? is Theresocio-economically are several concessions poor and thethat Israelis the Israelis have much to offer to improve their lot.

Ibid. The Times of Israel, 38 39 Raphael Ahren, “Trump and Netanyahu-A Match Made in Heaven?,” November 10, 2016 https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-and-netanyahu-a-match- made-in-heaven/ (Accessed on March 2, 2018). Christine Sixta Rinehart

38 The Eternal Capital of the Jewish People and the Israeli- Palestinian Peace Process under President Trump

If President Donald Trump can really solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, live in infamy be assured but many have speculated that the relocation he will be the first in history to do so and the legacy of his presidency will of the American Embassy to Jerusalem will put a damper on the Israeli- Palestinian peace process. While the political implications of the American embassy relocation to Jerusalem are vast this has not yet taken place and the

Although President Trump’s rhetoric and actions have appeared to put ramifications are still unknown. the Palestinians and the Arabs into a corner the actual bargaining at the negotiating table may not have been greatly damaged since the Palestinians and the Arab countries have, anyway, not taken many steps in the bargaining posturing which are part of the Palestinian culture. The closest that the Jews process but have utilized the usual inflammatory rhetoric, grandstanding and and Palestinians have ever come to an agreement took place under Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin when he and Yasser Arafat worked to establish the would say one thing to the public and express a completely different attitude Oslo Accords. Arafat was known to be extremely difficult to work with as he in private, yet Rabin was still able to make tremendous progress in the peace process until he was tragically assassinated by a far-right Israeli citizen before The Oslo Accords virtually collapsed at 40 the agreement could be finalized. Intifada began so that, even though the Roadmap for Peace idea was in the the Camp David Summit in 2000 and, immediately afterwards, the Second works at that time with a two-state solution, it too quickly fell apart. Four issues must be considered regarding the possibility of resolving the that President Trump can do this for the following reasons: Israeli-Palestinian conflict but, from a pessimistic standpoint, it is unlikely issue, as a man who is known to be both a negotiator and a man of his word, 1) While no United States’ president has resolved this almost impossible President Trump is probably the best man for the job and whatever he lacks in charisma, President Trump makes up for in determination.

2) Since the Palestinians have an all or nothing approach they are much more. The Israelis have gone as far as being prepared for a two-state solution more difficult to negotiate with than the Israelis who often offer to compromise but this has still not been enough. The Palestinians, with a religion and culture

Jacob Lassner and S. Ilan Troen, Jews and Muslims in the Arab World

40 (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, INC., 2007). President Trump and Jerusalem that encourage martyrdom, do not have much negotiating room when death39 is always on the table in the form of terrorism and, since they are never in a position of power at the negotiation table, they need to learn the art of compromise. The relocation of the embassy, however, does put the discussion other Arabs will come to the negotiation table with a sense of dissatisfaction of the peace process off to a difficult beginning since the Palestinians and the but millions of American aid dollars will most likely facilitate the process for them. The Israelis, on the other hand, will be emboldened by dealing with a supportive White House after eight years of dealing with a dismissive and somewhat unfriendly President Obama. table at the White House the stakes will be high from a geographical point 3) If President Trump does manage to bring both parties to the negotiating of view since all of Jerusalem will never be given to the Palestinians by the

Israelis - so that is a non-issue. The unification of the West Bank and the which would probably be impossible to sustain from a logistical standpoint. Gaza Strip would be most difficult as this would create a state within a state, One logical, but probably impossible, option would be to relocate people from the Gaza Strip and move them to the West Bank, thus creating a single independent Palestinian state but this would be extremely expensive and Israel would probably be expected to foot the bill although Western and MENA countries might make sizeable donations in the interest of peace. If the Gaza Strip citizens are moved it is likely that a third Intifada will begin and Israel would do best to expect this problem. Another possibility would be to unite the Palestinian population of the West Bank with Jordan and allow those Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip to either move to Jordan or become part of Israel. Since the Palestinian people are similar to the Jordanians this might be a possibility but the last time that the King of Jordan allowed Palestinians into his country it ended up with Black September trying to assassinate King Hussein which led to the removal of Palestinians from Jordan to Lebanon again although it is doubtful considering the vitality of the terrorist groups via Syria in 1971. Hopefully, the Jordanians will be willing to try this option still living in the Palestinian Territory. Yet another geographical possibility is Israel absorbing the Palestinian population41 but this option is most likely the least desirable option for all parties. The Israeli Jews and the Palestinians have lived entirely separately from each other and throwing them together does not seem like a great idea considering that having a separate territory in a state will probably not function very well.

Ibid.

41 Christine Sixta Rinehart

40 has been persistent in resisting and criticizing Israel for decades to the degree 4) One more negative wild card in this situation is the United Nations which that it almost seems as though the Palestinians can do no wrong. Unless the disregard the whole process and refuse to play a constructive role whether Palestinians receive a very beneficial deal the United Nations will most likely this be as a spokesman or negotiator in the possible Israeli-Palestinian peace process. For this reason and because of the danger that the United Nations might derail the process it should not be allowed to play any role in it. One positive thing that might make the Palestinian-Israeli peace process different this time around is the negotiating skills of President Trump since, regardless of the political baggage he carries, he is an excellent negotiator whose negotiating skills have been honed through years of owning businesses and expanding businesses. If he is willing to try and make a contribution to the peace process, there is a small chance that President Trump could work out some kind of deal that would satisfy both the Israelis and the Palestinians and bring about a peace that is always in the interest of every nation despite the temptations of achieving goals through war. The results expected of the embassy relocation from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem have been speculated upon regarding any possible future Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process that would include President Trump, President Mahmood Abbas, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The personalities of these men and their political priorities will play a fundamental role in whether any Israeli-Palestinian peace process will be successful since, although the stakes are high and the probability of such a success is low, peace is in the best interest of everybody. Only time will tell whether President Trump’s decision to move the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem has been an intelligent move or has not.

About the author: Christine Sixta Rinehart is an Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of Academic Affairs over the Laurens Location at the University of South Carolina Palmetto College. In addition to numerous articles and Volatile Social Movements and the Origins of Terrorism: The Radicalization of Change was published by Lexington Books book chapters, her first book Drones and in 2012 and subsequently in hardcover in 2014. Her second book, President Trump and Jerusalem

Targeted Killing in the Middle East and Africa: An Appraisal of American41 Counterterrorism Policies Her third book, Sexual Jihad: The Role of Islam in Female Terrorism will was published by Lexington Books in late 2016. terrorism, counterterrorism, Middle Eastern Politics, Latin American Politics, andbe published US Foreign by Policy. Lexington Books in 2018. Dr. Sixta Rinehart specializes in