Europe's Vaccination Battleplan Capital Gain—The

Europe’s vaccination battleplan Capital gain—the IPO boom An uninvited visit to Xinjiang High hopes: hydrogen-powered flight

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Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power & Peace By Hans Morgenthau

Nobel Perspectives

Knowledge is the Answer.

At Nobel Perspectives, UBS brings together some of the best minds in economics to discuss the ideas that are helping shape our global economies. With over 200 hours of personal interviews, from over 50 Nobel Laureates, you’ll discover why we are passionate about the thinking that makes markets, industries and societies thrive.

The world this week United States 11 A summary of political 29 BLM six months later and business news 30 Black entrepreneurs 31 Donald Trump’s Leaders deepening defeat 15 Inflation 31 The public-toilet shortage Will it return? 32 Anti-Semitism 16 Brexit trade negotiations Last tango in Brussels 32 The Fort Hood report 33 The right size of stimulus 16 The IPO boom Capital idea 34 Lexington When America and China went to war 18 Transgender medicine First, do no harm The Americas On the cover 20 The music industry Knock-knock-knockin’ 36 Nicaragua’s strongman Low inflation underpins on Jody’s door 37 A better dulce de leche today’s economic policies. 38 Bello Central American Governments should prepare Letters disasters in case it doesn’t last: leader, On race data, Galicia, page 15. How strong is the case 22 epidemiology, Bosnia, that inflation is about to companies, Jonathan return? Briefing, page 25. Sacks, China There are tentative signs that Asia productivity growth might 39 Covid-19 in Japan Briefing accelerate, page 69 40 Suicide in South Korea 25 Inflation • Europe’s vaccination 41 Tourism in Thailand Prognostication battleplan The EU prepares to and prophecy 41 Philippine policing receive its first batches of the 42 Banyan Thailand’s covid-19 vaccine. But supplies absolutist king and uptake are both uncertain, page 52. Why is the bloc so 44 Rohingyas in Bangladesh riddled with vaccine scepticism? Charlemagne, page 56 China • Capital gain—the ipo boom 45 Training foreign Raising equity is back in fashion: politicians leader, page 16. Companies have 46 Club culture expands issued more debt and equity in 47 Chaguan Xinjiang’s 2020 than ever before. What grim factories now? Page 63 • An uninvited visit to Xinjiang Our columnist turns up at a Middle East & Africa factory complex accused of 48 Zambia’s toxic mine dump using forced Uyghur labour: 49 Ghana votes Chaguan, page 47 50 Making nice in the Gulf Bartleby A new book 50 The Yazidis’ struggle argues that decency pays off in business as well as 51 The UAE scores in Israel in life, page 65

We are working hard to ensure that there is no disruption to print copies of The Economist as a result of the coronavirus. But if you have digital access as part of your subscription, then acti- vating it will ensure that you can always read the digital version of the newspaper as well as all of our daily journalism. To do so, visit economist.com/activate 1 Contents continues overleaf 8 Contents The Economist December 12th 2020

Europe Finance & economics 52 Vaccinating Europe 69 Productivity trends 53 Germany and covid-19 71 Buttonwood Investors’ 54 France and Islamism overconﬁdence 54 The Brothers of Italy 72 An end to oil restraint 55 Romania’s election 72 Mexico’s unbanked 56 Charlemagne On 73 Counting banks’ carbon anti-vaxxers 74 Free exchange Economic research Britain 57 Brexit and chemicals Science & technology 58 Assertive tech regulation 77 Hydrogen-powered ﬂight 58 Toppling statues 78 A megamegaphone 59 BLM and public schools 79 SpaceX’s latest launch 79 Gene therapy for sight 80 Bees v hornets

International 60 Transgender rights Books & arts and children 82 America’s far right 83 The Enlightenment 84 Johnson Accent discrimination 86 William Kentridge’s art

Business 63 A year of capital-raising Economic & ﬁnancial indicators 64 Facebook 88 Statistics on 42 economies 65 Bartleby Why fair play pays Graphic detail 66 SAP’s reset 89 What countries do economists study and why? 66 India’s lawsuits Obituary 67 Unautonomous Uber 90 Chuck Yaeger, test pilot 68 Schumpeter Unshackling France SA

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The world this week Politics The Economist December 12th 2020 11

The Supreme Court made its Opposition candidates made first foray into the jumble of gains in a parliamentary elec- Coronavirus briefs lawsuits from Republicans still tion in Kuwait, raising fears To 6am GMT December 10th 2020 trying to overturn the election that they will stand in the way Weekly confirmed cases by area, m result. In a one-line response of efforts to tackle a fiscal crisis with no dissents, it refused to caused by low oil prices and 2.0 Europe hear a case from Pennsylvania. the outbreak of covid-19. None 1.5 Joe Biden’s victory will be of the 29 female candidates Latin America US 1.0 officially confirmed on Decem- who ran won a seat. Other ber 14th, when the electoral 0.5

college meets to cast its vote. Ethiopian federal troops fired 0 at un workers who were as- DNOSAJJMAM Britain began the world’s first As Brexit trade talks went sessing roads to provide aid in vaccination programme for down to the wire, the British Tigray, a war-torn region. Confirmed deaths* covid-19 using a fully tested government announced an Fighting erupted in November Per 100k Total This week vaccine. Thousands of people, “agreement in principle” with between the central govern- Belgium 151.9 17,603 692 mostly the very elderly and the European Union over ment and Tigrayan forces, after Peru 110.4 36,401 435 frontline health workers, border controls between Ire- Tigray held what the govern- Italy 102.1 61,739 4,694 received the Pfizer/BioNTech land and Northern Ireland. ment called an illegal election. Spain 100.6 47,019 1,235 jab in hospitals. Family doctors Britain also agreed to scotch The government has shut Britain 92.2 62,566 2,867 will also administer the legislation that would allow it internet and telephone access Argentina 89.0 40,222 1,066 United States 87.0 288,018 15,851 injections, as will care homes to break international law. to the region. Thousands have Mexico 86.6 111,655 4,090 by Christmas. Canada became Boris Johnson, the prime died and perhaps 1m have fled France 86.2 56,293 2,826 the second country to approve minister, went to Brussels for a their homes. Czech Rep. 85.3 9,136 621 the Pfizer vaccine and will start dinner with Ursula von der Sources: Johns Hopkins University CSSE; UN; distribution soon. In America Leyen, the president of the Five people were killed in The Economist *Definitions differ by country regulators were on the verge of European Commission, but election-related violence in approving it. their meeting left a bad taste in Ghana. Both presidential and America reported more than the mouth for those hoping for parliamentary races were 3,000 deaths in a single day General Lloyd Austin was a breakthrough. close. Results showed that for the first time. Hospital- tapped by Joe Biden to be his Nana Akufo-Addo won a sec- isations also hit a new record. defence secretary. If con- France published details of a ond term as president, narrow- firmed, General Austin, who proposed new law designed to ly beating his predecessor, Most of California’s residents has led America’s command in combat the spread of radical John Mahama, who said the were told to stay at home, as Afghanistan and Iraq, will be Islam. The law, which will go to election was flawed. tighter restrictions were the first black person to hold parliament next year, was introduced in counties where the job. He will also be a former prompted by the beheading of Opposition leaders in India the virus is surging. military man in a position that a French schoolteacher for complained that the govern- by tradition goes to a civilian. showing children cartoons of ment was preventing them Officials in France said it was Donald Trump’s first defence the Prophet Muhammad. from joining farmers protest- now unlikely that a national secretary, James Mattis, also ing against recent agricultural lockdown will end on Decem- came from the armed forces. Venezuela’s dictatorial reforms, which would curb ber 15th. In Germany, Angela regime, led by Nicolás Maduro, price supports for crops. The Merkel said her country The House of Representatives reclaimed control of the protesters rejected an offer to should go into a hard lock- passed a defence bill, with 140 legislature, the one branch of revise the reforms. down before Christmas. Republican votes, that would, government it did not com- among other things, remove mand. The ruling psuv and its Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the Daily infections in India the names of Confederate allies won more than two- eldest son of Indonesia’s continued to fall, dropping generals that adorn some thirds of the votes in a legisla- president, Joko Widodo, was below 27,000 for the first time military bases. Mr Trump says tive election that was boycott- elected mayor of the city of in five months. he will reject the bill, but it has ed by most of the opposition. Surakarta, the job that been approved by a two-thirds The psuv’s victory means that launched his father’s career. A “cruise to nowhere” in majority, enough support to the opposition’s leader, Juan waters off Singapore, which override a presidential veto. It Guaidó, recognised as Venezu- Rarely can a mountain stretch allowed passengers to experi- now goes to the Senate. ela’s interim president by more its advantage over its rivals, but ence the fun of a cruise ship than 50 countries, will lose his this week Everest did just that. without disembarking, had to The House also passed a bill role as head of the assembly. Nepal and China, the two return to port when someone that would decriminalise countries that the “goddess tested positive on board (he marijuana and overturn the Tabaré Vázquez, who was twice mother of the world” straddles, subsequently tested negative sentences of those who have Uruguay’s president, died. A agreed that the correct height in a re-test). been convicted of non-violent doctor turned left-wing poli- is 8,848.86 metres above sea cannabis crimes. Its purpose is tician, Mr Vázquez’s victory in level, 86cm above the previous to redress the racial disparities 2004 ended more than 160 height, established in 1954 by a For our latest coverage of the in marijuana convictions years of rule by the National survey in India. China did its virus please visit economist.com/ (black people are more likely to and Colorado parties. His own estimate in 2005 and had coronavirus or download the be jailed for possession). It is second term ended in March insisted that Everest was four Economist app. unlikely to pass the Senate. this year. metres shorter. 12 The world this week Business The Economist December 12th 2020

America’s competition regu- had set out to investors, as it October 2009. A drop in food The World Economic Forum lator filed an antitrust lawsuit prepared to float on the Nasdaq prices, notably in pork, as pig changed the location of its against Facebook, alleging that exchange. stocks improved after a bout of annual meeting next year to it bought WhatsApp and swine fever, lay behind the fall. Singapore. The event, already Instagram, two social-media jd Health’s ipo was also a postponed from January to rivals, to suppress competi- success. The health-care In Japan the government began May, is normally held in Davos, tion. Separately, a coalition of division of jd.com, one of a fresh round of stimulus Switzerland, but the wef 46 American states, led by New China’s big e-commerce following earlier packages in thinks the risk from covid-19 is York, launched a similar law- companies, raised $3.5bn in April and May, and said it too high in Europe. suit against the company. Hong Kong, in the biggest thinks the latest measures will Facebook argues that the legal flotation of shares on the city’s boost gdp by 3.6%. As well as In what is thought to be the actions are an attempt to revise stockmarket this year. fighting covid-19, the money most lucrative deal for a single history, as the takeovers were will be spent on green and artist’s publishing rights, Bob scrutinised and approved by digital technologies. Dylan sold the copyright for regulators at the time. China’s exports more than 600 songs to Uni- 2020, % change on a year earlier* Société Générale became the versal Music. The price was not 20 Uber decided to sell its autono- latest big bank to recognise the revealed, but the troubadour

mous-vehicles subsidiary to 0 pandemic’s effect on changing and winner of a Nobel prize in Aurora, a startup that counts customer behaviour, as it set literature is said to have wrung Amazon among its backers. -20 out a restructuring plan with a $300m from Universal, cer- Uber spent billions on self- “fully digital banking model” tainly no simple twist of fate. driving cars, which it can no -40 at its heart. The French bank is longer afford as the pandemic NOSAJJMAMFJ merging its two retail-bank eats into its ride-hailing busi- Source: Haver Analytics *$ terms networks, which will result in A publishing sensation ness (it is also selling its flying- around 600 branch closures. Seventy years after it was first car division, Uber Elevate, to a China’s exports grew by 21% in published, ikea said it was separate startup). The project dollar terms in November over Ivan Glasenberg decided to “turning the page” and will no unnerved investors in 2018 the same month last year, the retire as chief executive of longer print a catalogue. ikea when one of its cars killed a fastest pace since February Glencore, a job he has held for used to distribute 200m copies woman in Arizona, the first 2018. Much of that came from almost 20 years. Under his of its book in 32 languages, but fatal collision involving an exports to the United States, leadership Glencore became a it has been surpassed by digital autonomous car and a pedes- which rose by half, despite the global powerhouse in com- browsing. Catalogues in gen- trian. Uber is not getting out of stiff tariffs imposed by the modities, expanding from eral are heading for the check- the business entirely. It will Trump administration in the trading into mining. Mr Gla- out. Argos, a British retailer, take a stake in Aurora and may countries’ trade war. senberg’s replacement when will stop printing its in Janu- eventually integrate the tech- he steps down next year will be ary. A family staple at Christ- nology with its platform. Meanwhile, China’s official Gary Nagle, who runs Glen- mas, the Argos catalogue was consumer price index fell by core’s coal business. He has once Europe’s most widely 0.5% in November from a year been tasked with a new com- printed publication, vying Back in the sky earlier, the country’s first pany plan to cut its emissions with the Bible for the title of The first commercial flight of a month of deflation since by 40% over the next 15 years. most-read book in Britain. Boeing 737 max took place, 20 months after the fleet was grounded worldwide following two fatal crashes. Gol airline flew passengers from São Paulo to Porto Alegre after its pilots completed training to fly the revamped jet, which has been certified as safe in Brazil and the United States. Meanwhile, Boeing delivered its first 737 max aircraft since the ban was lifted, to United Airlines, which will test the plane before entering it into service.

Huge investor appetite for the stockmarket debut of Door- Dash, America’s leading meal- delivery app, pushed its share price up by 86% on the ﬁrst day of trading, valuing it at $60bn. DoorDash raised $3.4bn from its ipo. Facing similar demand for its ipo, Airbnb priced its shares above the target range it Banking in the palm of your hands.

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1 Source: Global Cement and Concrete Association 2 Annual global cement production in 2019: 4.1 billion tons. Precast industry is 30% of total. Source: IEA. 3 Typical passenger vehicle emits around 4.6 metric tons of CO2 per year. Source: EPA. Leaders Leaders 15 Will inﬂation return?

Low inflation underpins today’s economic policies. Governments should prepare in case it doesn’t last conomists love to disagree, but almost all of them will tell placent. The Federal Reserve says it wants inflation to overshoot Eyou that inflation is dead. The premise of low inflation is its 2% target to make up for lost ground; the European Central baked into economic policies and financial markets. It is why Bank, which was expected to announce more stimulus after we central banks can cut interest rates to around zero and buy up went to press, may yet follow suit. Weighed down by the need to mountains of government bonds. It explains how governments pay for an ageing population and health care, politicians will in- have been able to go on an epic spending and borrowing binge in creasingly favour big budget deficits. order to save the economy from the ravages of the pandemic— Might these arguments prove correct? A temporary rebound and why rich-world public debt of 125% of gdp barely raises an in inflation next year is perfectly possible. At first it would be eyebrow. The search for yield has propelled the s&p 500 index of welcome—a sign economies were recovering from the pandem- shares to new highs even as the number of Americans in hospital ic. It would inflate away a modest amount of debt. Policymakers with covid-19 has surpassed 100,000. The only way to justify might even breathe a sigh of relief, especially in Japan and the such a blistering-hot stockmarket is if you expect a strong but in- euro zone, where prices are falling (though rapid changes in the flationless economic rebound in 2021and beyond. pattern of consumer spending may have muddied the statistics). Yet as we explain this week (see Briefing), an increasingly vo- The odds of a more sustained period of inflation remain low. cal band of dissenters thinks that the world could emerge from But if central banks had to raise interest rates to stop price rises the pandemic into an era of higher inflation. Their arguments getting out of hand, the consequences would be serious. Markets are hardly overwhelming, but neither are they empty. Even a would tumble and indebted firms would falter. More important, small probability of having to deal with a surge in inflation is the full cost of the state’s vastly expanded balance-sheet—both worrying, because the stock of debt is so large and central-bank governments’ debt and the central banks’ liabilities—would be- balance-sheets are swollen. Rather than ignore the risk, govern- come alarmingly apparent. To understand why requires peering, ments should take action now to insure themselves against it. for a moment, into how they are organised. In the decades since Margaret Thatcher warned of a vicious For all the talk about “locking in” today’s low long-term inter- cycle of prices and wages that threatened to “destroy” society, the est rates, governments’ dirty secret is that they have been doing rich world has come to take low inflation for the opposite, issuing short-term debt in a bet granted. Before the pandemic even an ultra- that short-term interest rates will remain low. tight jobs market could not jolt prices upwards, The average maturity of American Treasuries, and now armies of people are unemployed. for example, has fallen from 70 months to 63. Many economists think the West, and especially Central banks have been making a similar wa- the euro zone, is heading the way of Japan, ger. Because the reserves they create to buy which fell into deflation in the 1990s and has bonds carry a floating interest rate, they are since struggled to lift price rises far above zero. comparable to short-term borrowing. In No- Predicting the end of this trend is a kind of vember Britain’s fiscal watchdog warned that a apostasy. After the financial crisis some hawks warned that bond combination of new issuance and qe had left the state’s debt-ser- buying by central banks (known as quantitative easing, or qe) vice costs twice as sensitive to short-term rates as they were at would reignite inflation. They ended up looking silly. the start of the year, and nearly three times as much as in 2012. Today the inflationistas’ arguments are stronger. One risk is So while the probability of an inflation scare may have risen of a temporary burst of inflation next year. In contrast to the per- only slightly, its consequences would be worse. Countries need iod after the financial crisis, broad measures of the rich-world to insure themselves against this tail risk by reorganising their money supply have shot up in 2020, because banks have been liabilities. Governments should fund fiscal stimulus by issuing lending freely. Stuck at home, people have been unable to spend long-term debt. Most central banks should start an orderly rever- all their money and their bank-balances have swelled. But once sal of qe and instead loosen monetary policy by taking short- they are vaccinated and liberated from the tyranny of Zoom, exu- term interest rates negative. Finance ministries should incor- berant consumers may go on a spending spree that outpaces the porate risks taken by the central bank into their budgeting (and ability of firms to restore and expand their capacity, causing the euro zone should find a better tool than qe for mutualising prices to rise. The global economy already shows signs of suffer- the debts of its member states). Shortening the maturity of the ing from bottlenecks. The price of copper, for example, is 25% state’s balance-sheet—as in 2020—must only ever be a last re- higher than at the start of 2020. sort, and should not become the main tool of economic policy. The world should be able to manage such a temporary burst of inflation. But the second inflationista argument is that more In praise of mothballs persistent price pressures will also emerge, as structural disin- The chances are the inflationistas are wrong. Even the arch- flationary forces go into reverse. In the West and in Asia many monetarist Milton Friedman, who inspired Thatcher, admitted societies are ageing, creating shortages of workers. For years glo- late in his life that the short-term link between the money supply balisation lowered inflation by creating a more efficient market and inflation had broken down. But the covid-19 pandemic has for goods and labour. Now globalisation is in retreat. shown the value of preparing for rare but devastating events. The Their third argument is that politicians and officials are com- return of inflation should be no exception. 7 16 Leaders The Economist December 12th 2020

Brexit trade negotiations Last tango in Brussels

If a last-minute trade deal is done, it will be thin—yet even that would be better than no deal ith the Brexit trade talks deadlocked—again—Boris John- out of the customs union implies not just more bureaucracy and Wson flew to Brussels on December 9th to meet Ursula von customs controls but also checks on rules of origin for exports. A der Leyen. By having a fish dinner with the European Commis- trade deal that erects rather than pulls down barriers is an un- sion’s president, the prime minister hoped to replicate the last- usual beast. Industries ranging from broadcasting to chemicals minute deal that he struck in the Brexit withdrawal treaty in the (see Britain section) will suffer from being under a different reg- autumn of 2019 after he went for a walk in Cheshire with his Irish ulatory regime and losing hitherto frictionless trade. counterpart, Leo Varadkar. This time it seems not to have Then there is Northern Ireland. Under the withdrawal treaty, worked. As we went to press, the two had agreed that negotia- the province will stay in the single market and customs union in tions should continue until Sunday, but the dinner failed appre- order to avert the risk of a hard border with the Irish Republic. ciably to narrow any of the big gaps remaining. But this necessitates checks on goods crossing the Irish Sea. It is Contrary to many reports, the most intractable of these is not welcome that, after reaching agreement with the eu this week on over access to British fishing waters. For both sides, fisheries are how these checks should be done, the government has aban- politically important but economically insignificant, which doned its earlier plans unilaterally (and illegally) to rewrite the should make a compromise feasible. The big- Northern Irish provisions of the withdrawal gest difficulty concerns the so-called level play- treaty. But treating the province, which voted to ing field. This is the label for the European Un- remain in the eu, differently from Great Britain ion’s longstanding worry that post-Brexit inevitably raises questions about the future of Britain may undercut the social, labour, envi- the United Kingdom. Equally, the demand for a ronmental and state-subsidy rules that under- second independence referendum is rising in pin its single market. The eu’s wish to be al- Scotland, which also voted to remain. lowed to retaliate promptly if this happens runs Yet even a thin deal would be better than no slap against Mr Johnson’s claim that Brexit must deal at all. The economic differences between mean unfettered sovereignty and an absolute right to diverge the two count for something. Modelling by the independent Of- from regulations that are set in Brussels. If no compromise fice of Budget Responsibility finds that a deal would make gdp proves possible on the level playing field, the outcome is likely to some 4% lower than it otherwise would be: no deal would add a be that there will be no trade deal in place when the transition further 2 percentage point cut on top. Then there are the politics. period comes to an end on December 31st. Whereas a deal would create a base on which Britain could build The deal or no-deal argument skates over an important fact: other agreements with its largest and most important neigh- that even agreement would represent a hard Brexit. Avoiding ta- bour, the acrimonious blame game that would follow a failure in riffs and quotas on goods is certainly desirable, but it still entails the talks would poison relations for years. Not reaching a deal leaving the single market that Margaret Thatcher did so much to would complicate co-operation on such matters as domestic se- create. The deal does nothing for services, which make up 80% of curity, intelligence-sharing and foreign policy. And it would the economy. The eu is withholding decisions to grant Britain stand as a globally reputation-shredding failure of statecraft by the necessary equivalence for its financial regulation or to rule both sides. As he returns home from his Brussels dinner, Mr its data protection adequate so as to permit data transfers. Being Johnson should reflect on what a poor outcome that would be. 7

The IPO boom Capital idea

Why raising equity is back in fashion or over a decade many people in finance have worried about ery company, raised $3.4bn in an ipo. In Hong Kong shares of jd Fthe decline of the public company. Big firms were shrinking Health, a digital-medicine star, rose by over 50% on their first their capital bases by buying back shares. And fast-growing day of trading after its $3.5bn ipo. As we went to press Airbnb, firms, including several hundred tech “unicorns”—startups one of the largest unicorns, was listing at a valuation of over worth over $1bn—chose to remain in private hands rather than $40bn. Worldwide, some $800bn of equity has been raised in bother with an initial public offering (ipo). The result was riskier 2020 by non-financial firms, the highest sum on record. In corporate balance-sheets and the exclusion of ordinary inves- America in the last quarter the proceeds should roughly match tors from the ownership of the economy’s most exciting firms. the amount of shares that companies have bought back. This year has seen a reversal of this trend with an equity-rais- Equity is more expensive than borrowing, but has attractions. ing bonanza (see Business section). In the past few days Tesla has It is permanent capital that does not need to be repaid. And be- said it will sell $5bn of new shares, while DoorDash, a food-deliv- cause it does not come with interest payments it is flexible, mak-1

18 Leaders The Economist December 12th 2020

2 ing firms more resilient. It is back in fashion for several reasons. pandemic abates, firms may reinstate buybacks and dividends. Some firms need to repair the damage from the pandemic, for ex- The last danger stems from a cohort of firms having too much ample Rolls-Royce, an aircraft-engine maker, and Carnival cash. In the 1970s Michael Jensen, a scholar, argued that debt Cruises. The tech boom means unicorns can go public at sky- forced discipline on managers. His ideas were taken too far by high valuations. Frothy share prices allow the founders of firms Wall Street’s junk-bond salesmen, but the risk of executives that are already listed to raise capital without diluting their own wasting cash on deals or vanity projects is real. The five biggest stake by as much—something Tesla’s Elon Musk has spotted. tech firms have over $550bn sitting around. They might try big There are other factors, too. More Chinese firms are coming of takeovers—think of Apple buying Netflix. Meanwhile, some age. This year Nongfu Spring, China’s answer to Evian, floated, newly listed firms have oodles of cash, but give outside investors making its founder the country’s richest man. Investors are ex- only limited voting power, making managers unaccountable. perimenting with legal structures that they think are more effi- Governments should welcome the equity boom. For years lib- cient than ipos, including spacs (special purpose acquisition ertarians have argued that the only way to revive ipos is by water- companies). Finally, because covid-19 has led many firms to cut ing down corporate-governance rules. They have been proved their buybacks there is less equity being retired than normal. wrong. Many politicians long to ban buybacks, which they ac- Investors are euphoric but they face several risks. One is that cuse of all sorts of evils (in fact they are similar to dividends but prices are too high. Another is that it is not yet clear whether more flexible, which came in handy this year). If politicians real- overall corporate indebtedness will fall, partly because the dam- ly want to sustain healthy equity markets, they should instead age from lockdowns is still mounting. For non-financial compa- reform tax codes, which almost everywhere favour debt by mak- nies in America’s s&p 500 index, net debt (debt less cash), ing interest costs tax-deductible. Removing the tax break for dropped only slightly in the third quarter of this year, and re- debt and putting equity on a level playing field should be the pri- mains above its level in 2019. Some firms are still burning cash ority. It has the added advantage that the proceeds should help and perhaps a fifth of s&p 500 firms are overborrowed. As the governments repay their own colossal debts. 7

Transgender medicine First, do no harm

Other rich countries should learn from the Keira Bell case in England hat should you do if a 12-year-old girl says: “I am a boy”? If ment treatment may never be able to have children of their own, Wthe answer were simple or obvious, the question would or experience an orgasm; and the evidence of long-term benefits not be so explosively controversial. A good place to start, if you is extremely sketchy. The English court said it was highly unlike- are a parent, is to affirm that you love the child. It should go with- ly that someone of 15 could understand all this well enough to out saying, too, that no child should be bound by gender stereo- give informed consent to taking puberty blockers, which it types. Boys can wear dresses; girls can play with cars, or become called an experimental treatment. It suggested that in the case of plumbers. The question gets much harder, however, when chil- 16- or 17-year-olds, it might be wise for doctors to seek a court’s dren say they hate their body and want a different one. Gender permission before prescribing such drugs. Once they reach dysphoria (a feeling of alienation from one’s natal sex) is real, adulthood, young people in England and Wales are free to seek and the proportion of children and adolescents diagnosed with whatever hormones or surgery they choose. it in rich countries is rising for reasons that are poorly under- Many trans activists denounced the ruling as a travesty, or stood (see International section). One school of even a denial of the right of trans people to exist. thought, which has spread rapidly, is that you Their passion is understandable. Trans people should agree with youngsters who identify as have often been appallingly treated, and it is transgender, and offer them medical interven- right that societies should pass laws to protect tions, if they ask for them, to help their bodies them from discrimination, and from bullying in match what they regard as their true selves. schools. But given the available evidence, the England’s high court last week highlighted ruling is a reasonable attempt to set out guide- some of the problems that can flow from such lines in an area where there are as yet no good thinking. The case concerned Keira Bell, who solutions. Other countries should learn from it. says she was rushed into life-changing medical treatment when Some children and adolescents who express gender dyspho- she was 16, which she now regrets. The process began with drugs ria will never be happy with their natal sex. But studies suggest that delay puberty. These are typically described as reversible that 61-98% of children with gender-related distress, if allowed and a way to “buy time”. But at the Tavistock clinic, where Ms Bell to go through puberty without medical intervention, will be rec- was treated, most patients who took puberty blockers went on onciled to it. Many will realise that they are simply gay. Alas, also to take cross-sex hormones (oestrogen for males who want there is as yet no way to predict these outcomes. So the possible to grow breasts; testosterone for females who want to develop harm of delaying transition for those who might benefit from it male sexual characteristics). Many then proceeded to surgery. must be weighed against harm to the health and the emotional Some of the effects of this are irreversible. Skipping puberty lives of a larger number of people. The latter harm appears worse, causes sterility. Ms Bell’s breasts, which were removed when she so the English court was right to err on the side of preventing it. was 20, will not grow back. Those who undergo gender-reassign- It was also right to criticise the Tavistock for several failures. 1 Retail is going hybrid. How can you create flexible supply chains and predict demands with ease? With a smarter hybrid cloud approach. Get the tools, platform and expertise your business needs from IBM. The world is going hybrid with IBM. ibm.com/hybridcloud

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2 The clinic could not say how many of those referred for puberty Some Australian and American states have banned “conver- blockers had autism, which is common among those who ex- sion therapy” in relation to sexual orientation or gender identity; press gender dysphoria. It did not have good data on how many Canada is considering doing likewise. This conﬂates two issues move on to cross-sex hormones. Nor did it properly lay out for which are not the same. It is wrong to try to talk gay people into patients the alternatives to medical intervention. being straight. But the same principles applied to gender identi- Perhaps clinics in other rich countries do a better job of caring ty could criminalise counselling that raises the distinct pos- for the children and adolescents that attend them. But since they sibility that a particular trans-identifying child or adolescent are often subject to less scrutiny, it would be unwise to assume might one day desist. So such laws are a bad idea. Youngsters so. The number of transgender clinics has shot up in several who are trying to grapple with gender dysphoria need honest, countries. In America it has risen from one to more than 50 since caring therapy that sets out all the long-term options. Health ser- 2007—there are no national statistics on how many patients vices must do a better job of providing it. And before embracing seek treatment. And some activists are urging rules which, invasive procedures such as those undergone by Ms Bell, the though no doubt well-meaning, would make it harder to strike medical profession needs to gather evidence to establish the bal- the right balance when treating gender dysphoric children. ance of beneﬁts and harm they bring. 7

The music industry Knock-knock-knockin’ on Jody’s door

Selling your songs makes sound commercial sense. But it may not always fit the brand his week Bob Dylan sold his song catalogue to Universal Mu- That the live-performance industry is in severe recession? Tsic Publishing Group. Mr Dylan, like other musicians, has not Yes, ’n’ how many years can some people exist been able to tour during the pandemic. Cashing in now will spare Before they capitalise their ongoing revenues? him the bureaucracy of future tax payments. Universal’s chief The answer, my friend, is contained on p96 of the executive, Jody Gerson, has not disclosed how much the group offer document paid. Mr Dylan has put his thoughts about the deal into ballad- form. It came into our hands thanks to a Mr Tambourine Man. I ain’t gonna work on no one’s farm no more No, I ain’t gonna work on no one’s farm no more Hey! Ms Universal, Ma’am, play my songs for me Well, I tried my best In the clouded covid mourning I’ll sell ’em all to you To find the highest price My weariness amazes me, I’m branded on my feet And Universal wants me I have no one to sing to To sell it to them And the ancient empty street’s dead set for streaming So I ain’t gonna work on no one’s farm no more

We live in a commercial world Ring them opening bells at the nyse Love don’t have any place So the people will know Life is in mirrors, death disappears Oh it’s rush hour now Up the steps into the nearest bank Ring them closing bells for the chosen few who will judge when the dividend is due Papa’s bank book wasn’t big enough Bring them Nobels for the child that cries And I was standin’ on the side of the road When innocence dies Lord knows I’ve paid some dues gettin’ through Tangled up in red tape You say you’re lookin’ for someone Who’s never venal but always strong I never said nothing, there was nothing I wrote To protect you and defend you I went with the woman From the greed you think is wrong In the long black stretch-limo Someone to turn their back on Mammon’s law But it ain’t me, babe Oh, Bob said to Jody G, “Name me a sum” No, no, no, it ain’t me, babe Jody says, “Man, you must be puttin’ me on” It ain’t me you’re lookin’ for, babe Bob say, “No.” Jody say, “What?” Bob say, “You must pay what I want Jody How does it feel But next time they play my songs you’re in the mon How does it feel Ey.” Jody says, “When you want this payin’ done?” Like a complete tycoon Bob says, “In structured payments in the next three tax years.” Like a rolling stone?

How many roads must a man walk down Hey! Ms Universal, Ma’am, play my songs for me Before you call him a ﬁnancier? In the clouded covid mourning I’ll sell ’em all to you Yes, ’n’ how many deaths will it take till he knows ©Universal Music Publishing Group 7 WHAT DO YOU SEE?

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Porto. Thanks to the eu, we are Instead they have benefited ous male’s cubs. This also WEIRD science now more open to internation- greatly from them and been happens in companies, where You reported that a lack of data al trade than most Spanish very much aware of how diffi- projects and sometimes people on race hampers efforts to regions, and our economy is cult it is to forecast an epidem- linked with the previous boss tackle inequalities, and exhort- growing fast. In Galicia, at least ic in the face of limited and are “killed off” by the successor ed governments to ensure that on the economic front, our fast-changing data availability upon taking over. they start to gather this vital relationship with Portugal is as and quality. They also try to daniel weihs information (“Wanted: more important as it is with Madrid. collaborate with, and get feed- Haifa, Israel data”, November 21st). This Our languages are similar, back from, epidemiologists message also needs to be heard which helps us communicate and public-health researchers. by researchers. The over- or with 300m Portuguese speak- benjamin moll What Abraham said under-sampling of ethnic and ers around the world. Professor of economics Your lovely obituary of Rabbi social groups in research is enrique sáez London School of Economics Lord Sacks (November 21st) skewing our understanding of A Coruña, Spain mentioned that “Abraham, human behaviour and disease. ordered to sacrifice his son As of 2018, individuals includ- After the Dayton peace deal Isaac, had said three times to ed in the vital studies defining The economics of a disease “Dayton at 25” (November 21st) God, ‘Hineni’, ‘Here I am.’” In the genetic causes of diseases Although epidemiologists may depicted Bosnia correctly in fact, Abraham says Hineni to were 78% European,10% have sometimes failed to see several aspects. When I started God only once in that episode, Asian, 2% African,1% Hispan- how social behaviour influ- visiting the country12 years once more to God’s messenger ic, and less than1% for all other ences the spread of a disease ago, I was surprised to still see (or “angel”), and once to Isaac ethnic groups. A report in (Free exchange, November divisions among its people. himself. The story is about Science suggested that Western 14th), economists have often The war heroes on monuments Abraham’s fidelity and avail- bias in human genetic studies been slow to recognise how the in one place would be consid- ability to God, surely; but by is “both scientifically damag- social changes generated by ered war criminals just a few embedding the same word in ing and unfair”. In the field of the threat of a disease affects kilometres away. Car plates Abraham’s response to his son, psychology, the problem is so the economy. This is the sec- bear no indication of the re- the story itself presents the great—96% of data comes from ond time this century that gion of registration, probably tension between our obliga- 12% of the world’s citizens— economists have failed miser- to prevent trouble. Yet some of tions to the divine and our that the over-sampled privi- ably to anticipate how an the problems you pointed out obligations to our fellow hu- leged population has its own epidemic can be as much an are not necessarily attributable mans. It does not try to obscure acronym, weird (Western, economic crisis as it is a pub- to the current state structure: those tensions, but confronts Educated, Industrialised, Rich lic-health one, and to antici- mass emigration, poverty and the reader frankly with them. and Democratic). This weird pate how deep it would be once bad public services can be I met Rabbi Sacks only once, population has been shown it did emerge. found in several ethnically and very briefly. But from that across a number of traits to be You said, rightly, that homogenous countries. As encounter, I suspect that he poorly representative of the economics shows very little regards Milorad Dodik, he may would be delighted that the wider population. interest in crossing disci- well talk “of independence and obituary’s small slip gives us Missing data matter. This plines. More worrying is the integration with Serbia”, but he an opportunity to contemplate increases inequalities, espe- insistence of economists to will not follow this up with some of the fundamental cially when missing from rely on a limited set of meth- action. Any new armed con- dynamics he had dedicated his inputs to algorithmic decision- ods that, although rigorous, frontation is close to impos- life to communicating. making systems and artificial prevent us from investigating sible. Over time, the present charles mathewes intelligence, technologies that catastrophic risks. George differences will soften. In the Professor of religious studies have an impact on society. Akerlof recently criticised the future, Dayton at 50 might be a University of Virginia professor andrew morris “hard” methods that are rare example of a successful Charlottesville, Virginia caroline cake preferred in economics. case in state building. professor alastair ilan noy oleksandr ovchynnykov denniston Chair in the economics of Strasbourg So there Health Data Research uk disasters and climate change Chinese officials’ views of London Victoria University of America and its democracy Wellington The corporate jungle may be filled with “disdain” Wellington, New Zealand Writing about the change in (Chaguan, November 7th) but Borders melt away leadership at McDonald’s, there is something we can do One important thing to note Your column claimed that Schumpeter mused on new that China’s citizens cannot. about the Spanish region of economists like me and epide- bosses who are “overeager to We can change our president. Galicia is that things began to miologists “got off on the tear up the legacy of their And we did. improve when Spain joined the wrong foot” during the pan- disgraced predecessors” (No- roy girasa European Union and the bor- demic. The views you attribut- vember 14th). This is what I call Beaverton, Oregon der with Portugal disappeared ed to “economists” are those of the Simba Syndrome. Many (“Us Gallegos”, November 7th). a small but loud minority. Most new executives follow the The combined Spanish and economists I know value the model of the lion pride, formed Letters are welcome and should be Portuguese area in the north- work of epidemiologists and by a dominant male, several addressed to the Editor at The Economist, The Adelphi Building, west of the Iberian peninsula try to learn from them as much lionesses and their cubs. When 1-11John Adam Street, London WC2N 6HT has 12.5m people. Money from as possible. They do not a new male takes over by chas- Email: [email protected] Europe helped build a “intensely criticise” epidemi- ing off or killing the previous More letters are available at: motorway between Vigo and ologists’ models or their use. king he then kills off the previ- Economist.com/letters Executive focus 23

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Brieﬁng Inﬂation The Economist December 12th 2020 25

The agenda for a big conference on central Prognostication and prophecy banking to be held in February has copious space for financial instability, climate change and inequality but barely any for inflation—despite taking place in Ger- many, a country which, since Weimar, has all but fetishised sound money. Indeed a modest rise in inflation, rather than giving central bankers the vapours, How strong is the case that inflation is about to return? would have them sighing with relief. In re- n 1975 Adam Fergusson, a journalist on the number of “inflation surprises” in cent years, and most dramatically during Ithe Times, published a book called “When which the rate spikes (see chart 1 on next the worst of the crisis this spring, the threat Money Dies”. A history of hyperinflation in page). When “The West Wing”, a television of demand-sapping deflation loomed Germany in the early 1920s, it was written show, gave its fictional president a “secret large, especially in the euro area and Japan. with an eye to what was going on in the plan to fight inflation” in 1999 it was as a Some want central banks to aim for infla- then-present day. Inflation in Britain was joke, not a plot point. True to Mr Fergus- tion higher than the 2% target that most of not at the prices-soaring-day-by-day levels son’s belief that the experience of living them use, and America’s Federal Reserve seen in the Weimar Republic. But in 1975 it with inflation is “forgotten or ignorable has already said that it wants to overshoot reached an unprecedented 24%—grim when it has gone”, his book fell out of print. its 2% target in the recovery to make up for enough for Fergusson’s warning that the It was republished to acclaim at the end recent shortfalls. Recent experience sug- experience of inflation was “totally absorb- of the 2000s, when post-financial-crisis gests that may be hard: interest rates close ing, demanding complete attention while stimulus packages increased government to zero have left monetary policy hard-put it lasts” to hit home. debt prodigiously, and “quantitative eas- to push inflation back up even to 2%. Rapid, continuous increases in prices ing”, the process by which trillions of new arbitrarily take wealth away from savers dollars would be created, started to hit its Look behind you and devalue people’s wages. It is not just stride. Many worried that the stage seemed But if it is easy to ignore the prophets of the purchasing power of a unit of currency set for prices to surge in a way which had doom, it may not be wise. If 2020 has a les- that is eroded; it is the trust in a reliable fu- not been seen for a generation. son, it is that problems which many in the ture on which contracts and capitalism de- They did not. Over the 1970s rich-world world had broadly stopped worrying about pend. From the early 1970s to the 1980s inflation averaged 10% a year. In the 2010s can rear up with sudden and terrible force. more than 50% of Americans said “infla- the rate stayed stubbornly below 2% a year. And those sounding the alarm today are tion or the high cost of living” was the sin- That is one of the reasons that the small but right to point out that the circumstances of gle biggest problem facing the country. vocal band of economists and investors the covid pandemic do not offer a simple But by the 1990s the beast seemed to be that is once again worried about excessive re-run of 2009’s false alarm. vanquished. Average rates dropped; so did price rises is by and large being ignored. Some of today’s inflationistas predict a 1 26 Briefing Inflation The Economist December 12th 2020

2 possibly high but transitory spike in prices The private sector will thus find itself economist, points out that this means as consumer spending bounces back from flush with cash as vaccinated economies there is a “clash” between the two best- the pandemic. On December 3rd Bill Dud- reopen. Households and firms may remain known economic theories associated with ley, who was until 2018 a vice-chairman of cautious, sitting on their accumulated sav- the Chicago school. Milton Friedman said the Fed’s interest-rate-setting committee, ings. But amid the joy of reopening they sustained growth in the money supply warned Bloomberg readers that sharp price may instead go on a spending spree, mak- leads to inflation; Eugene Fama argued that increases might be necessary “to balance ing up for all the time not spent in theatres, market prices fully reflect all available in- demand with the available supply, which restaurants and bars during 2020. That formation. “If you believe that we are going the pandemic has undoubtedly dimin- would result in a lot of money chasing to have inflation now...the efficient-mar- ished.” The next day David Andolfatto, an goods and services that might not be in am- kets hypothesis would have to be wrong,” economist at the St Louis Fed, warned ple supply, resulting in a period of inflation Mr Christensen argues. Americans to “prepare themselves for a that would tail off as the purchasing power Most economists side with the markets temporary burst of inflation.” of the money involved fell, bringing things and Mr Fama. In general they no longer Others warn of more persistent infla- back towards the status quo. think about inflation as 1980s monetarists tionary pressure. Economists at Morgan did (indeed even Friedman, late in life, ad- Stanley, a bank, predict “a fundamental From the Black Death on mitted that modern central banking might shift in inflation dynamics” in America, Researchers from the Bank of England who have severed the link between the money with inflation rising to the Fed’s 2% target looked at 800 years of (admittedly patchy) supply and prices). Following the “New by the second half of 2021 and going on to records have concluded that inflation does Keynesian” framework of the 1990s they overshoot it. After a typical recession such typically rise in the year after a pandemic believe that the underlying driver of infla- a rebound takes three years or more. The begins. A recent paper by Robert Barro of tion is a combination of the public’s expec- most pessimistic group warns that com- Harvard University and colleagues finds tations of price rises, which are self-fulfill- placent or distracted central bankers will that the influenza pandemic of 1918-20 “in- ing, and the health of the labour market. allow such pressures to go unchecked, creased inflation rates at least temporar- Both currently point to low inflation. leading to a decade of stubbornly high in- ily”. By the time the effects of the covid-19 Neither survey data nor the financial flation comparable to the 1970s. pandemic are fully on the wane more firms markets suggest that the public expects Three main factors are deemed to be at will have joined the ranks of those which dramatic price rises. And most forecasts play: the after-effects of the stimulus mea- have already gone under and many of the suggest it will take some time for employ- sures taken by governments to cope with survivors will be struggling to run at full ment to find its pre-pandemic level, even the pandemic; demographic shifts; and tilt. Thus people’s willingness to spend in the economies which bounce back most changes in policymakers’ attitudes to- could easily rebound faster than their op- quickly. Goldman Sachs, a bank which has wards the economy. portunities to do so. There is already some been especially bullish about the prospects Take the stimulus packages first. Mone- evidence of bottlenecks where supply is for the American economy, does not expect tarism, which was the dominant economic falling behind demand. The price of ship- the unemployment rate to fall below 4% ideology over the period in the 1980s dur- ping an object from one country to another until 2024. And America’s economy is ex- ing which inflation was squeezed out of has jumped in recent weeks, while the pected to recover faster than most. Rela- rich-world economies, sees the root cause price of iron ore has risen by more than tively high unemployment—in the jargon, of inflation as an excessive supply of mon- 60% since the beginning of the year. an “output gap”—will give firms little in- ey. On that basis the fact that nearly a fifth This is the risk of which Mr Dudley centive to increase people’s wages, and of all the dollars in existence have been warns. In the aggregate, though, investors thus little need to raise prices. A “projected created this year clearly looks perturbing. seem unconvinced. The inflation expecta- large output gap should push global core Central-bank balance sheets in America, tions which can be derived from prices in inflation 0.5% percentage points below its Britain, Japan and the euro zone have risen financial markets have recently picked up a pre-crisis levels next year”, argue econo- by more than 20% of their combined gdp little thanks to the good news on vaccines mists at JPMorgan Chase, another bank. since the crisis began, mostly to buy gov- and the prospects for a rebound in the So even if there is a spending boom, ernment debt. This new money is paying world economy. But they still suggest that there will be plenty of economic slack for enormous stimulus programmes, in- investors think next year’s inflation is around to accommodate it. Some econo- cluding wage subsidies, furlough schemes more likely to be below the 2% central mists bridge the two views, predicting that and expanded welfare benefits that put banks target than above it (see chart 3 on the economy will get back to speed in fits money in pockets and purses. next page). Lars Christensen, a Danish and starts, some perhaps inflationary. But 1 This money creation differs from the burst seen after the financial crisis—the burst which, despite warnings, triggered A problem vanquished? no surge in inflation. That earlier burst began during a prolonged credit crunch. This Countries in which inflation rose by more 1 Broad-money supply* 2 meant that the new money created by cen- than four percentage points in a year % increase on a year earlier tral banks was making up for money that % of total was not being created by bank lending. 60 20 This time it is not just “base money”— Rich Non-rich OECD 15 physical cash and electronic reserves the 40 quantity of which is under central-bank 10 control—which has soared. Measures of 20 “broad money”, which includes house- 5 holds’ bank balances, have, too. Lending to the private sector has risen sharply as firms 0 World 0 have borrowed cash to continue opera- 191020009080701961 1988 20151005200095 tions. After 2009 the broad-money supply Sources: World Bank; Haver Analytics/Oxford Economics; The Economist *Cash and near-cash equivalents rose slowly; today it is spiking (see chart 2). The Economist December 12th 2020 Briefing Inflation 27

aged the most, puts paid to this idea. Infla- will respond to the prospect of inflation 3 Hardly ominous tion there has long been lower than any- rising above its target with higher interest Inflation expectations, five-year swap rate, % where else, despite Herculean efforts on rates, regardless of what politicians and 4 the part of the Bank of Japan. Mr Goodhart the public might want. and Mr Pradhan counter this argument by It is possible that these norms are weak- saying that a “global escape valve” stopped ening. In recent years there have already Britain* 3 inflationary pressures in Japan from been greater attacks on the independence United States 2 achieving much. Rather than stagnate, in- of central banks, such as President Donald vestment moved overseas as Japanese Trump’s exhortations that interest rates Europe 1 manufacturing firms took advantage of should stay low. And during the pandemic plentiful global labour. Cheap imports kept the relationship between central banks Japan 0 goods inflation down and the offshoring of and finance ministries has grown unusu- manufacturing jobs reduced workers’ bar- ally close. After it ends, politicians will face -1 gaining power. the problem of the debts left behind. 20191817162015 In fact, though, wage growth in Japan’s Where those debts are long-term, inflation Source: Bloomberg *Expectations for RPI not CPI manufacturing industries has been com- would be a handy way to reduce their real paratively strong. What is more, the au- value, easing the strain on budgets. Politi- thors concede that Japan’s ageing popula- cians may be more willing to entertain 2 for most, high joblessness and contained tion has not had quite the effect on the such an option for the reason identified by inflation expectations make forecasting dependency ratio that might be expected— Mr Fergusson—that, after a long period of continued low inflation a no-brainer. because many more elderly people are now low inflation, people forget how awful it What, though, if the New Keynesian working. The same phenomenon could yet can be. A third of the people currently liv- view is missing key parts of the story? In contain inflation elsewhere. ing in the rich world had not been born “The Great Demographic Reversal”, pub- The third argument for fearing a return when average inflation last exceeded 5%. lished last summer, Charles Goodhart, a of inflation is political. It rests on the idea former member of the Bank of England’s that governments and central banks are be- Doubting the future monetary-policy committee, and Manoj coming more tolerant of inflation, and that The Fed’s commitment to deliberately al- Pradhan of Talking Heads Macro, a re- they will become even more so as the ex- low inflation to exceed 2% during the research firm, provide an alternative view of tent of the pressure on government bud- covery is Exhibit A for this belief. Christine the past decades’ low inflation. It was not, gets becomes apparent. Lagarde, the president of the European they say, the result of a correct diagnosis of Back in the 1970s presidents and prime Central Bank (ecb), emphasises her man- the problem leading, in the hands of inde- ministers were happy to strong-arm cen- date is to “support the general economic pendent central bankers, to appropriate tral bankers into doing what they wanted. policies” of the eu, as well as ensure stable monetary policy. Rather, it was driven by Inflation was tamed only after Paul Volcker prices. Central bankers everywhere now global demography. proved the Fed’s commitment and inde- admit, if only under their breath, that as In recent decades the integration of Chi- pendence by pushing America into reces- well as maintaining price stability they are na, Europe’s formerly communist east and sion to slow price rises. A new paper by Jo- also trying to keep governments’ long- other emerging markets into the global nathon Hazell of Princeton University and term-borrowing costs low in order to facili- trading system provided the world econ- colleagues argues that post-Volcker “shifts tate fiscal stimulus. Should inflationary omy with millions of new workers. As in beliefs about the long-run monetary re- pressure start to rise while they are doing bosses found it ever easier to get their la- gime” have proved more important than so, will they abandon that effort? Central bour done in Guangdong or Bratislava the any other factor in conquering inflation. banks which put up borrowing rates under bargaining power of rich-country workers Their actions in recent decades have built the current circumstances would undoubt- fell, and price rises to cover increased up a firm expectation that central banks edly face opposition from the finance min- wages became a thing of the past. This fits istries that would pay the increased costs the finding that much more of the low in- and suffer in subsequent elections. Infla- flation seen in recent decades has come tionistas think that the politicians would from stable or falling prices for goods that win, as in many cases they constitutionally can have their site of production shifted should. Central bankers’ independence is than has come from services which have to granted by elected politicians. be delivered in situ. But this political argument, too, has its Things are now about to change, the au- weaknesses. The ecb’s independence is thors claim. As populations in the rich protected by treaty, and even though it has world and China age, the number of depen- become more willing to stimulate in recent dents per worker will soar, creating a la- years, it still exhibits a hawkish bias, toler- bour shortage in care industries. True, Afri- ating inflation expectations that are well ca and India have plenty of youngsters. But below target. Elderly people like to vote and rich-world politics may further increase tend to dislike inflation, argues Vitor Gas- the barriers to their migration. Workers in par of the International Monetary Fund. the rich world will thus acquire more bar- That should limit any political pressure for gaining power; wages will rise and prices higher inflation in ageing societies. will rise accordingly. As well as reigniting The doves and the markets currently inflation, these demographic forces will have the better of the argument. But the make Western countries more equal, Mr case for reflation in the world economy is Goodhart and Mr Pradhan argue: another stronger than it was after the global finan- seemingly inexorable trend reversed. cial crisis. A recovery from the pandemic It might seem that the recent experi- that is untroubled by excessive inflation ence of Japan, the rich country that has looks likely. But it is not guaranteed. 7 relevant investing

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support for the blm movement, founded seven years ago, soared to an unheard-of 67% in June, according to Pew researchers. It has slipped a bit since, but remains high. Voters, especially Democrats, responded. Joe Biden has concluded that more Afri- can-Americans must be seen in prominent jobs. His choice of Kamala Harris, who is part African-American, as his running- mate proved popular. This week he picked Lloyd Austin as defence secretary. If the retired four-star general is confirmed, he would be the first African-American to pre- side over the Pentagon. That matters, says the incoming president, to “make sure that our armed forces reflect and promote the full diversity of our nation”. His cabinet will be home to many non-white faces. Does this amount to a new wave for the civil-rights movement? blm looked bereft before the summer. Several activists say the national part of their movement had lost its way. Ms Ndgo, who is critical of national leaders, says it had become “a sham- bles”. Local chapters were passionate, but focused mostly on holding rallies in response to violent incidents by police. blm boasted of its grass-roots organising and decentralised, leaderless structure. But critics say that proved messy, bureaucratic, slow-moving and ineffective. Patrisse Cullors (pictured), one of blm’s three co-founders, bluntly blamed her movement’s “half-drawn blueprints and road maps that led to untenable ends”, as well as its lack of funds and vision. Black people, she wrote in September, had “paid dearly” for these shortcomings. Better fo- Black Lives Matter cus and organisation were needed. Some of that has changed. Start with the The George Floyd effect great fire-hose of money pointed at blm groups and sympathisers. The example of Niko Georgiades of Unicorn Riot, a non- profit, left-leaning media firm that posted early footage of protests in Minneapolis, is CHICAGO instructive. Thanks to online donations, Six months after mass protests started to rock America, a stronger black-lives within a couple of months his almost- movement may be emerging broke outfit went from $8,000 in the bank hen there’s a chance to make feeling new “validation” for her work. Olu- to nearly $650,000. That’s enough to keep “Wchange, we must be ready to take chi Omeoga at Black Visions Collective, a operating for another five years, he says it,” says YahNé Ndgo, a singer and activist grant-giving body in the same city, is also joyfully. Ms McKnight saw donations flood with Philadelphia’s chapter of Black Lives fired up, saying America has entered “a dif- in from people in America, Europe, Japan Matter (blm). Events over the past six ferent phase, one hundred percent”. Public and Brazil. Within a month of the protests, months, she says, have brought a rare blm’s national network had to scramble to chance to shape national affairs. Protests offer a first round of $6.5m in grants—far flared across America after footage spread Also in this section more than ever before—to city chapters, of the death of George Floyd, an African- gay-rights groups and others. 30 Hope for black entrepreneurs American who was choked for nearly nine That was just a start. Vastly larger prom- minutes by a policeman in Minneapolis in 31 The never-ending election ises and sums followed as employee and May. By one count over 8,500 civil-rights corporate donors, as well as rich individ- 31 The urinal is political demonstrations have taken place since. uals, joined the gift-giving. Donations to The sight of thousands of marchers, 32 Anti-Semitism accusations blm-related causes since May were usually young and mostly peaceful, helped $10.6bn. Exact sums received will be 32 The Fort Hood report to sway public attitudes in ways small and known when the central body overseeing big. Kenya McKnight, who runs a group in 33 How much economic stimulus? blm spending publishes its finances (con- Minneapolis educating black women fusingly it relies on another entity, a “fiscal 34 Lexington: America and China about finance, says she was invigorated, sponsor”, the Tides Foundation, to oversee 1 30 United States The Economist December 12th 2020

2 its books). A leading figure talks of “incred- sees blm as an offspring of the radical Black unlikely to end, but it is also doubtful that ible financial growth and capacity”, and a Power activism of the 1960s, but fears it is the disgruntled ten chapters can lure more huge surge in “the number of folks who instead becoming “vanilla”, ineffective and to their camp. Nobody owns the blm trade- want to throw down with us”, meaning co-opted by those who resist change. mark. Nor can anyone say convincingly long-term partners. Ms Ndgo is also upset at secrecy. She what counts as an official chapter of the Another change, the restructuring of warns that Ms Cullors, if she does emerge movement. That means both camps are blm, could turn out to be just as signifi- as the main blm leader, may be out of touch free to go on operating. Much will depend cant: power is to be centralised. Ms Cullors because “she is not on the streets, not on who has more resources to help activ- has stood up as the boss of blm’s Global grass-roots organising”. She complains ists or mount bigger campaigns. If the Network Foundation, which she calls the that the foundation has been woefully money keeps flowing to the foundation “umbrella organisation” for the whole opaque about its money. that Ms Cullors runs, then her more-organ- movement. In taking responsibility, as she The schism between the two camps is ised vision for blm may emerge stronger. 7 says, for the “onus of our successes and failures”, she appears to be claiming leader- African-American businesses ship of the once leaderless movement. That is because the foundation will control funds, dishing them out to officially re- Capital punishment cognised blm city chapters through another new body called blm Grassroots. The NEW YORK Long-suffering black entrepreneurs may soon have reasons for cheer foundation is also moving away from doing mostly on-the-ground work. For exam- lack entrepreneurs face a mighty ple, it is pressing Congress to pass legisla- Bstruggle. African-Americans make up tion, known as the Breathe Act, that would about 13% of the country’s population but order a big increase in federal spending on only 2% of its business-owners. Their public housing. Leaders of the foundation firms earn just 0.3% of total business were hoping to meet members of Mr Bi- receipts. Minority-owned businesses are den’s transition team this week. In October less profitable than comparable white- a blm political-action committee was owned firms, and have much higher rates launched, to “bring the power of our move- of failure. ment from the streets to the ballot box”. The pandemic has hit these firms That reflects new ambition, what Ms especially hard. Black-owned firms were Cullors has called “a totalising and unprec- nearly twice as likely to shut down (by edented transition” for blm. It has long fo- August, over two-fifths had done so) cused largely on police violence, mass in- because of covid-19 as small firms over- carceration and other criminal-justice all. Emergency aid often did not reach woes. The idea is to confront the way Afri- them, in part because the Small Business can-Americans live, not only their repres- Administration (sba) did not direct sion and deaths. banks to prioritise lending to such firms blm leaders plan, for example, to camas Congress intended. paign for more funding for the Postal Ser- Black entrepreneurs may now have tenth the assets of white ones. In addi- vice, a big employer of middle-class Afri- two reasons for cheer. One is top-down. tion, notes Katherine Klein of the Whar- can-Americans. Early next year it hopes to Past efforts by the federal government to ton School, they tend to have lower credit launch a bank to push capital to black- boost minority enterprises, a mix of loan scores. Black female entrepreneurs owned firms and non-profit groups. That guarantees and quota schemes, have receive less than 1% of all venture capital. reflects a wish to address problems of race fallen short. A recent analysis by McKin- So even a tenfold increase in govern- and economic inequality. sey, a consultancy, notes that although ment funding would not solve the pro- All that is appealing if the movement is the sba awarded some $2.3bn in federal blem, argues Shelley Stewart of McKin- to be more effective than just a protest out- contracts and backed about $210m in sey, without bottom-up fixes too. That fit. But the changes have upset radicals, loans for disadvantaged businesses in points to the second reason for cheer. In such as those who prefer the idea of abol- 2019, these schemes were “often imper- the wake of the Black Lives Matter prot- ishing capitalism over making banks work fectly implemented”. ests, corporate titans have made big better, or who reject electoral politics as in- The incoming administration is commitments to boost black businesses. trinsically ineffective. On November 30th promising a big revamp. Joe Biden vows JPMorgan Chase, a banking Goliath, says representatives of ten city chapters, in- to fund such firms to retain and rehire it will pour $30bn over five years into cluding large ones from Chicago, Denver, workers. After the pandemic, he wants to boosting black and Latino households Philadelphia and Washington, said they re- expand training, small-business in- and businesses. Citi, another giant bank, jected the recent changes as an undemo- cubators and innovation hubs for “black vows to take on “the racial wealth gap” cratic, secretive power-grab done without and brown entrepreneurs”. He also with a $1bn pledge. the backing of most blm members. promises to create a $30bn Small Busi- Sceptics worry this will prove mere One opponent, Vanessa Green, a blm ness Opportunity Fund and to direct “race-washing” and that Mr Biden’s organiser in Hudson Valley, New York, says additional billions to minority firms. efforts will get mired in red tape. But if nobody was consulted about launching the But the playing field for black en- they do take off, then black entrepre- political-action committee. Earlier com- trepreneurs is not level, argues Dana neurs might at last have a fighting plaints from smaller groups like hers about Peterson of the Conference Board, a chance. If they could achieve revenue the centralisation of power were brushed business-research firm: access to credit parity with comparable white-owned aside in the rush to change. “You have to in- is “too often determined by the colour of businesses, McKinsey reckons, it would clude every damn body,” she says. “To be ig- the skin”. Black households have just a boost their business equity by $290bn. nored, it feels like a slap in the face.” She The Economist December 12th 2020 United States 31

The never-ending election Mr Biden appeared to be nearly tied with the president on election night—a thin Final countdown margin of 1.5 points, or just 1.9m votes. Giv- en the electoral college’s inherent advantage for Republicans, Democrats struggled with their traumatic recollections of Mr Trump’s seemingly unimaginable defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016. NEW YORK AND WASHINGTON, DC In the end, the popular vote was not Donald Trump’s deepening defeat nearly as close as that (see chart). The pic- our years ago Democrats groused that ture changed partly because of the peren- FDonald Trump had secured victory in nial slow vote-counting in populous the presidential election through razor- Democratic strongholds such as California thin victories in three states, meaning that and New York, and also because of the 77,774 voters in effect swung the election. unusually large numbers of (mostly Demo- This time, regardless of a lopsided popular cratic-leaning) Americans who voted by vote in the Democrats’ favour, the elector- post in this cycle because of the covid-19 al-college margin was even thinner. The fi- pandemic. Mr Biden’s popular-vote margin nal, certified results show that had just has swelled to 4.5 points, or more than 7m 43,560 voters, or 0.03% of the total, in three Americans. states (Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin) That is a good bit healthier than Hillary The urinal is political changed their minds, there would have Clinton’s margin of 2.1 percentage points. been a tie in the electoral college. The out- Even so, Democrats came surprisingly Where have all the come would then have been decided by a close to losing the election as a result of still more arcane, less-majoritarian elec- America’s byzantine electoral-college toilets gone? tion in the House of Representatives, prob- rules, which inflate the value of small, typi- ably in Mr Trump’s favour—making it the cally Republican-leaning states and allo- third time in 20 years that Democrats cate votes on a winner-take-all basis. would have lost the presidency despite The president is still denying defeat, re- Long time passing winning the popular vote. fusing to concede or to go gently into that That nightmarish scenario for Demo- good night. His legal team has racked up an esterday’s outrage often slips away crats has been narrowly avoided, however. impressive record of one win and nearly 50 Yquietly. In 2016 a North Carolina law re- All states except Wisconsin finalised their losses challenging election results in state quiring transgender people to use the toilet results by December 8th. On December 14th and federal courts on its quixotic quest to of their birth sex upset the nation’s stom- the electoral college will meet and elect Joe overturn the outcome. ach. Companies pulled out of ventures in Biden as the 46th president of the United On December 8th Mr Trump got the es- the state, sports leagues called off games States. It will do so by a pledged margin of pecially sobering piece of news that the Su- and rock stars cancelled concerts. The law 306 votes to 232. This is exactly the same as preme Court, which he had been “counting was repealed and replaced with one which Mr Trump’s margin four years ago, which on” to look at the ballots and deliver him a prevented state and local agencies from he described as a “landslide” back then and second presidential term, had stamped out regulating who uses which toilet in public now decries as pure fraud. a wild lawsuit that sought to reverse his buildings, but barred local governments The full picture of the election has loss in Pennsylvania. The plaintiffs sought from passing non-discrimination laws emerged only slowly. Early on the evening to toss away the state’s entire mail-in bal- blocking private businesses from doing the of November 3rd, Mr Trump won the cru- lot, which would have disenfranchised same. On December 1st that ban expired, cial state of Florida with unexpected ease. 2.6m voters. The end came in a whimper: a meaning that local governments in North He looked stronger than anticipated in one-sentence order issued merely 34 min- Carolina can enact legislation to prevent Georgia and North Carolina. Rather than utes after the plaintiffs, a group of eight discrimination against lgbt people. leading by ten percentage points in the Pennsylvania Republicans, filed their last Thus closes another chapter in the poli- popular vote, as some polls had predicted, brief. No justices noted their dissent. tics of the toilet. The story is a long one. In As preposterous as this contention was, the 1950s and 60s civil-rights protesters de- it attracted the support of 23 House Repub- cried “whites only” latrines. An Oakland Slowly does it licans and Senator Ted Cruz, who had of- assemblywoman, Margaret Fong Eu, took a US presidential election, total reported votes cast fered to argue the case before the court. sledgehammer to a toilet wrapped in 2020, by date and time*, m And the brusquely rejected case did not chains outside the state capitol in 1969 to 85 even take the prize for the wackiest and protest against pay toilets in public build- most anti-democratic lawsuit. That hon- ings, arguing that they placed an undue Election Joe Biden 80 our goes to the state of Texas, which sued burden on women because urinals were of- Dec 8th four other states—Georgia, Michigan, ten free. Activists poured fake urine over 01:00 75 Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—in an at- the steps of Harvard’s Lowell Hall in 1973 Donald Trump 70 tempt to throw out Mr Biden’s victories on demanding “potty parity”, the equitable the day states were required to finalise distribution of male and female toilets. 65 their results. The Supreme Court will en- Grip bars in bathrooms were among the de- Nov 4th 01:25 60 tertain this chutzpah-laden request no mands of the disability protesters who oc- more than it did the other last-ditch effort. cupied a federal building in San Francisco In the words of Rick Hasen, a law professor for 26 days in 1977. 3101520253058 at the University of California at Irvine, the The feminist fight against pay toilets, Nov Dec move is merely “a press release masquer- and a campaign by a student group, the Source: Decision Desk HQ *Eastern Standard Time ading as a lawsuit”. 7 Committee to End Pay Toilets in America, 1 32 United States The Economist December 12th 2020

2 led to many states banning pay toilets in Their lawyer, Keisha Russell of First Liber- the 1970s. Vandalism and the cost of up- ty, a not-for-profit firm that specialises in keep shut down many public ones. Discus- religious-discrimination cases, said one sions about public toilets assume they are client spent $50,000 over two years trying still widely available, according to Taunya to get approval for a home extension. Lovell Banks, of the University of Mary- For the past decade the ultra-Orthodox land, but “free or low-cost public toilets op- (particularly the Hasidic) population has erated by government have largely disap- been growing in towns in upstate New York peared”, and access to toilets in and neighbouring New Jersey. Many of the government buildings has been reduced arrivals were priced out of their old neigh- since the Oklahoma City Bombing and 9/11. bourhoods in gentrified Brooklyn. The So those caught short must duck into a surging numbers and their demands for localbusiness andawkwardly askforrelief. land have often put them at odds with lo- “Restrooms are for customers only” signs cals. After battles over zoning and lawsuits, mean it often takes a penny to spend a pen- voters in nearby Monroe agreed in 2017 to ny, creating a barrier to the poor. Where allow a Jewish enclave to secede from the public urination is criminalised, the surrounding town to create a new town homeless may have no option but to risk called Palm Tree. There, most wanted to arrest by going in public places. In some replicate city life, living close together in states, this can land them on the sex-of- And no Jews? multifamily dwellings. fender registry. Closures of toilets during But most Orthodox Jews in Airmont live covid-19 have only added to the problem. ing any law. in single-family homes on large lots on The lack of accessible toilets has public- This is one of several examples of al- quiet streets. Yehuda Zorger, a community health consequences. Holding water for leged religious discrimination offered by activist, for instance, left Brooklyn in 2014 too long can lead to urinary-tract infec- the Department of Justice in its lawsuit for Airmont’s suburban lifestyle. He says it tions, and failure to defecate can lead to against Airmont. It asserts that the village has reached the point where even having constipation and haemorrhoids. This can adopted discriminatory zoning codes and extended family help fix his deck might be difficult for workers who lack easy ac- land-use practices that violate federal law draw the wrath of code enforcement. Had cess to toilets, such as taxi drivers, and dis- and previous court judgments. Airmont he known Airmont’s history before he proportionately affects women, who need claims the government is misinterpreting moved there, he says, he would have to go more frequently. No toilets also the village code. Yet this is the third time looked elsewhere for his coveted suburban means no soap. An outbreak of hepatitis A the federal government has filed a suit lifestyle. Now, he is not going anywhere. 7 linked to the lack of toilets led to the death against the village since it was incorporat- of 20 and the hospitalisation of hundreds ed in 1991. A jury unanimously found in in San Diego in 2017. 1995 that the village’s first mayor, trustees The Fort Hood report Public toilets are costly to install and and zoning board had engaged in a con- maintain, and can attract undesirable be- spiracy to deprive Orthodox Jewish resi- A look under haviour. But spurred on by America’s dents of their civil rights. One local said at homelessness crisis, some cities are an- the time: “the only reason we formed this the Hood swering the call. The right to urinate might village is to keep those Jews…out of here.” not be up there with the right to vote, but For much of its history, Airmont has having it guaranteed would be a relief. 7 been under investigation, in litigation or NEW YORK A review of one of America’s biggest under some sort of federal oversight. Its bases may change the army’s culture very creation, said Audrey Strauss, the act- Anti-Semitism accusations ing attorney for New York’s Southern Dis- anessa guillén, a 20-year-old soldier, trict, has its roots in animus against Ortho- Vtold her mother she had been sexually Here today, zone dox Jews. Its incorporation came about harassed for months by higher-ranking because some locals wished to impose zon- soldiers at her Fort Hood army base in Tex- tomorrow ing restrictions to prevent the growing as. She had refrained from reporting it out ultra-Orthodox Jewish population from of fear of retaliation. Not satisfied with the worshipping together at home. army’s response to her disappearance in AIRMONT, NEW YORK Since federal oversight expired in 2015, April, her family told local lawmakers and The federal government sues a village the latest lawsuit says, the village has dou- media that she had been harassed by supe- for religious discrimination (again) bled down on discriminatory land-use riors. Two months after she went missing, sukkah is a temporary hut built for zoning. The government claims the village her dismembered body was found buried ASukkot, a weeklong Jewish festival. It is unlawfully prevented the approval of an near a river 20 miles from the base. It later usually covered in branches. In September Orthodox Jewish school’s expansion. Air- emerged that one of the harassing soldiers 2017 the then mayor of Airmont, a village 35 mont implemented an 18-month village- allegedly murdered her. miles north of New York City, ordered the wide moratorium on development, which The hashtag #IAmVanessaGuillén, a fire inspector to the home of the mayor’s the lawsuit claims was targeted at the Or- military version of #MeToo, went viral. Ser- neighbours, an Orthodox Jewish family, to thodox Jewish community. When the mo- vice members and veterans shared their demand the family dismantle its sukkah. ratorium expired in 2018, the filing claims stories of sexual harassment and assault in According to a lawsuit filed by the federal land-use laws were amended and applied the army. President Donald Trump vowed government on December 2nd, the inspec- arbitrarily. Jewish homeowners were pro- to help the family. In recent years Fort tor, at the mayor’s direction, threatened the hibited from installing mikvahs, ritual Hood’s reputation has suffered as a result family with immediate eviction unless the baths used for religious observances. of sexual assaults, suicides, murders and sukkah was taken down. The family dis- Several rabbis jointly filed suit in a fed- two mass shootings as well as busts for mantled it, despite the sukkah not violat- eral court in 2018. The case is pending. prostitution and child-sex rings. Spurred 1 The Economist December 12th 2020 United States 33

2 by the outcry over Guillén’s death and pub- port also criticised the inadequate proce- Economic policy lic awareness of violence at the base, Ryan dures for missing soldiers, especially when McCarthy, the army secretary, commis- there are suspicious circumstances. The sioned an independent review of Fort absent soldier is often labelled a deserter. Picking a package Hood’s leadership. More than two dozen soldiers have gone The mostly civilian panel released its missing or died since the start of the year, How much stimulus is enough? scathing report on December 8th. It found including Gregory Morales, a murdered that Fort Hood’s commanders fostered a private who the army assumed went awol. n the spring America passed eco- “permissive environment”, which allowed His body was found near Fort Hood by in- Inomic-rescue measures worth sexual assault, harassment and violence to vestigators looking for Vanessa Guillén. $2.3trn this year (11% of gdp), a larger go unchecked. The panel called for staffing The panel made 70 recommendations. injection than in any other big, rich changes and better programmes to protect Nearly half are aimed at combating sexual country. With a slowing economy, soldiers. In response, the army removed or harassment and assault. It also recom- almost everyone agrees that more is suspended 14 military leaders, including mended new procedures for missing sol- required, yet for the past six months the major-general who headed Fort Hood at diers. In response, Mr McCarthy an- Congress has squabbled over a new bill. the time of Guillén’s disappearance. nounced that the army would take Democrats pushed for a deal worth over Fort Hood has much higher rates of viol- immediate action when soldiers are re- $2trn in 2021; Republicans insisted on ent sex crimes than other posts—75% high- ported missing and formed a task force to far lower amounts. As The Economist er than the army overall. As far back as 2014 map out a plan to tackle the problems iden- went to press, it looked as though an the base was identified as a high-risk in- tified in the review. Although the report fo- agreement might be in the offing. How stallation for sexual assault. The report cused on Fort Hood, he said, its conclu- much extra money is needed? said Fort Hood’s commanders did little to sions will have army-wide implications. To answer that question requires tackle the spectrum of criminal incidents. He predicted that the findings “will cause estimating two things: the size of the That led to underreporting of sex crimes. the army to change our culture”. “output gap” and the “fiscal multiplier”. Like Guillén, victims feared retaliation as Fort Hood’s dysfunction is not unique, Both are as hard to quantify as they are well as ostracism and career damage. Queta says Don Christensen, the air force’s for- to translate into plain English. The Rodriguez, a former marine who served on mer chief prosecutor who heads Protect output gap measures the difference the committee, called the number of unre- Our Defenders, an advocacy group. Sexual between the actual level of economic ported sex crimes at Fort Hood “shocking”. harassment and retaliation cut across all output and the amount the economy is The committee discovered 93 credible ac- services, from small air-force bases to na- capable of producing. Official data counts of sexual assault among the 507 val ships. “It takes a crisis to move the ball suggest that the gap was over 3% of gdp women it interviewed. Of those, only 59 forward,” he says. Joe Biden, the president- in the third quarter of the year, but it were reported. Of the 217 accounts of sexual elect, has said he would take a hard line has almost certainly narrowed since harassment, only half were reported. against sexual abusers in the forces. then. Other economists estimate the The panel found an extremely high It is rare for the army to allow an inde- gap using data on unemployment. A number of suicides, but because the post’s pendent review. Its findings are a wake-up rule of thumb is that it is twice the criminal investigators were inexperienced call not just for the army, but for Congress, difference between actual unemploy- and under-resourced, contributing causes too, which has a history of being hesitant in ment (6.7%) and full employment (with were not always examined. Fort Hood has pushing for change in the armed forces. a jobless rate of perhaps 3.5%), which the highest drug-test failure rate in the Guillén’s family hopes Congress will pass points to a figure of about 6% of gdp. army. Local police describe the base as hav- the I Am Vanessa Guillén Act, which would A stimulus package should aim to ing a “thriving drug culture”, but little allow outside investigators to handle mili- fill the output gap. But fiscal spending seems to have been done about it. The re- tary sexual misconduct. 7 does not necessarily translate one-for- one into increases in gdp. Estimating this “fiscal multiplier” is also tricky. Analysis by the Committee for a Re- sponsible Federal Budget, a public- policy organisation, suggests a multiplier of about 0.6 during the pandemic, meaning that $1of government spending translates into 60 cents of output. Many people saved rather than spent their stimulus cheques, for instance. They might be less cautious today, however, in part because more shops and restaurants are open now. Assume that the output gap is half- way between the gdp measure and the unemployment measure—4% or so— and that the multiplier is around one. If so, a package of $900bn-$1trn in 2021 would probably do the trick (further measures will almost certainly be needed in 2022 and beyond). But anyone pressing for a bigger or smaller stimulus can come up with their own, also plausible, estimates. Gone but not forgotten 34 United States The Economist December 12th 2020 Lexington When America and China went to war

The 70th anniversary of the first US-China battles in Korea holds lessons for both countries trated by the battlefield recollections Lexington heard this week from Jack Luckett, a 91-year-old retired marine. He was occupying a ridge above Chosin Reservoir, close to the northernmost point of MacArthur’s advance, on the night of November 27th 1950. Awak- ened by explosions, he saw a column of Chinese—eight men across—advancing in the glow of the defensive flares they had triggered. “We were vastly outnumbered,” he said. “We opened fire but they kept on coming. They were blowing bugles and firing on us while pouring down both sides of the ridge.” Mao’s intelligence chiefs had assured him that, for all their superior technology, American soldiers lacked the belly for a fight. The ensuing 17-day battle, which Mr Luckett fought through until frostbite laid him low, gave the lie to that. Surrounded by 120,000 Chinese, the 1st Marine Division broke out and made a heroic fighting retreat through the frozen mountains. The marines—and a small British contingent fighting alongside them—suffered terrible casualties; only 11of Mr Luckett’s company of 250 survived un- scathed. Yet they evacuated their wounded and equipment while inflicting a far heavier toll on the Chinese. Mr Luckett’s marine division was reckoned to have disabled seven Chinese ones. For a military institution whose small size, relative to the us army, has fuelled a tradition of mythologising and introspection, eventy years ago this month, Mao Zedong’s peasant army in- “Frozen Chosin” ranks alongside “Iwo Jima” in importance. “It’s Sflicted one of the worst military defeats on America in the coun- not an overstatement to say marines credit the marines who try’s history. Over two weeks his “volunteer” fighters drove an fought in Korea with ending the debate about whether there army of 350,000 American soldiers and marines and their Korean should be a marine corps,” says General Joseph Dunford, a former allies the length of North Korea, from the Chinese border to hasty marine-corps commandant (and recently retired chairman of the evacuations by land and sea. Though the Chinese suffered terrible joint chiefs of staff). His father celebrated his 20th birthday at Cho- casualties in the process and the war would continue for another sin reservoir on the day of the Chinese attack. three years (and technically has not ended), the American-led un In the soul-searching that followed the American retreat, notes force never again threatened to reunify the peninsula. Max Hastings, a British historian, it is possible to see a familiar de- This humiliation was made worse by the fact that General Dou- bate about the kind of superpower America should be. Deaf to the glas MacArthur, the force’s megalomaniacal supremo, had only entreaties of allies, MacArthur refused to accept the limits to weeks before assured Harry Truman that the Chinese would not American power that his incompetence had helped display. He cross the Yalu river. His commanders duly denied that they had. wanted to nuke the Chinese. Truman resisted and, after MacArthur When that became incredible, they claimed the cruelly ill- sneakily appealed to his Republican backers in Congress, sacked equipped Chinese—wearing cotton uniforms and canvas shoes for the revered general. It may have cost him a second term. It also set a high-altitude war fought at minus 30°C—were not a serious foe. a gold standard for civil-military relations that has since prevailed. An American general called them “a bunch of laundrymen”. Truman’s multilateralism and restraint were also vindicated It was classic superpower hubris, deserving of the contempt ex- when his Republican successor, Dwight Eisenhower, maintained pressed by Xi Jinping at a grand 70th-anniversary event in October. his conduct of the war. Better military leadership had by then sta- Having emerged victorious from the second world war, with fewer bilised the situation. America and China would both settle for casualties than any other major participant (America’s covid their initial aims: respectively, securing South Korea, which would death-toll is almost equal to its second-world-war combat toll), become one of the big successes of the late 20th century, and se- America in 1950 had a dangerous sense of impregnability, a racially curing a Korean buffer against America’s presence in Asia. Ameri- infused contempt for Asian capability and a few generals with ab- ca lost 40,000 lives in the process; China maybe ten times as many. surdly inflated status, including MacArthur. It might seem little wonder that America, consumed by the contemporary embarrass- First know your enemy ment of its president’s effort to steal an election, is barely com- That Americans are not more interested in this momentous past memorating its first and only war with China. ultimately reflects their restless democracy, which is too con- That does not denote shame, however. Notwithstanding Amer- sumed by contemporary dramas to dwell on history. Current ap- icans’ dewy-eyed view of their forces, public knowledge of their pearances notwithstanding, it is the source of American strength. victories and defeats is similarly thin. American schools do not Yet it is important to underline two lessons from America’s war teach much military history and democracies do not mobilise peo- with China. In a fog of misunderstanding, each side fatally under- ple through a militaristic view of the past. In the case of the Korean estimated the other. And each had a flawed idea of the other’s red war, the first “limited” war of the nuclear age, before that concept lines, the tripwires that turn competition into conflict. The situa- was well-understood, the forgetting has merely been especially tion today might look very different. The two countries’ inter- pronounced. Yet the war retains cautionary lessons for both sides. dependence and mutual awareness are on another plane. But their On one level it encapsulated the superpower’s enduring ability potential for underestimation and misunderstanding is still to self-correct. This was apparent even amid the debacle—as illus- hauntingly present; and perhaps growing with their rivalry. 7 “Between real estate expertise, a commitment to social impact and competitive rates, First Republic checks all the boxes for me.”

MARTIN MUOTO Founder and Managing Partner, SoLa Impact

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Nicaragua United States and the European Union imposed sanctions against officials and insti- Seeing off a strongman tutions after the crackdown in 2018, Nica- ragua is not quite the pariah in the West that Venezuela is. The imf agreed to lend it $185m to cope with the pandemic. Mr Ortega’s friends let him rig elections MANAGUA and take control of courts, the electoral au- To have any chance of defeating Daniel Ortega in an election next year, thority and the media. He governs with Ro- the opposition must unite now sario Murillo, who is both first lady and loaked in a hoodie, Camila found her- a respectable fight, it will have to settle its vice-president. The duo delivered political Cself bellowing anti-government slo- differences and find a leader soon. stability. Economic growth helped pay for gans along with scores of other people at a John Bolton, a national security adviser benefits, such as tin roofs, for the poor. crossroads in Managua, Nicaragua’s capi- under Donald Trump, branded Nicaragua’s But when aid from Venezuela dried up tal, in April 2018. The protest was part of la regime and those of Cuba and Venezuela as the government had to make painful re- crisis, which began in reaction to a proposal a left-wing “troika of tyranny”. But Nicara- forms, including the pension cuts that to cut pension benefits. In putting it down, gua is in some ways an exception. Mr Orte- sparked la crisis. The unrest hurt business the regime killed perhaps 450 people. Ca- ga’s revolutionary credentials are impecca- confidence and tourism, causing the econ- mila (not her real name) feared she would ble. His Sandinista Liberation Front omy to shrink by a seventh since 2017. The be spotted by government agents scanning overthrew the United States-backed So- number of formal jobs had fallen by a fifth, the crowd. As repression mounted, she fled moza dictatorship in 1979. He governed the even before the pandemic struck. from Nicaragua. Neighbours, part of the re- country until he lost an election in 1990. When it did, the Ortega government was gime’s network of local spies, later stopped But he is more an opportunist than an ideo- complacent. Before Nicaragua had con- by her family’s home to ask after her. Ca- logue. During his second stint in power, firmed cases, Ms Murillo held a rally for mila now studies in Europe. She will not go even as Nicaragua took billions of dollars “love in the time of covid-19” to show sol- back, she says, until Daniel Ortega, the re- from Venezuela, he formed an alliance idarity with less fortunate countries. Nica- gime’s leader, is out of power. with business and wooed the Catholic ragua responded to the pandemic’s onset Veterans of la crisis will have a chance to church by supporting family values and with the world’s laxest containment mea- remove him in a presidential election anti-abortion legislation. Although the sures, according to a stringency index put scheduled for November 2021. In a fair vote together by Oxford University. The death Mr Ortega, who has held power without in- toll, officially 162, is 6,000-7,500, according Also in this section terruption since 2007, would probably lose to an analysis by Confidencial, a newspaper, it. But he has long stopped practising fair- 37 Udder delight in Cuba of extra deaths attributed to diabetes, ness. The opposition is energised and de- pneumonia and heart attacks. Two hurri- 38 Bello: Central American disasters termined—but also divided. If it is to put up canes that struck in November left thou-1 The Economist December 12th 2020 The Americas 37

2 sands of Nicaraguans homeless (see Bello). be jailed for life. Opposition politicians lease of the 100-odd remaining political Mr Ortega’s popularity has plummeted. fear it will be used against them. prisoners and electoral reform. The crafty His odds of re-election depend on the co- But Mr Ortega is reluctant to steal elec- president will need to strike the right bal- herence of the opposition, and how much tions as flagrantly as his friend, Nicolás ance. Too little fairness may provoke isola- he is willing and able to undermine the in- Maduro, who on December 6th arranged tion and another uprising. Too much may tegrity of the vote. for Venezuela’s ruling party to wrest con- lead to his defeat. The opposition hopes to The opposition that burst into life in trol of the legislature from the opposition. exploit any miscalculation. 2018 lacked leaders and organisation. Without Venezuela’s largesse and oil re- It must overcome voters’ scepticism as Those emerged when Mr Ortega convened serves of its own, Nicaragua has turned to well as Mr Ortega’s manoeuvring. The op- a dialogue as a way to buy time. Students, Western financial institutions. The imf position “represent their own interest”, businessfolk and think-tankers founded loan is part of nearly $1bn in credits for cop- says Camila, the hooded protester. Unity the Civic Alliance. A peasants’ movement, ing with the pandemic and hurricane dam- might help correct that impression. It will formed earlier in the decade, took part in age. (At the insistence of the United States, be needed, even if Mr Ortega, who is 75, the dialogue. Blue and White National Un- the un and other bodies will administer wins. Nicaragua will still require a robust ity (unab), a grouping of more than 100 most of that money.) Brazen electoral fraud opposition as a bridge to the eventual re- student and civil-society outfits, sprang up would invite tough sanctions from the in- turn of democracy. after the talks. coming Biden administration. Full pariah Democracy alone may not heal Nicara- These groups all want to restore democ- status would further alienate the tycoons gua’s wounds. When Camila contemplates racy and obtain justice for the victims of who run much of the economy. returning, she wonders: “How do I live the crackdown. They are not natural part- For these reasons Mr Ortega may offer with my neighbour who came down to look ners. unab worries about inequality. “We olive branches. They could include the re- for me?” 7 see crony capitalism as part of the problem,” says unab’s leader, Félix Maradiaga. The Civic Alliance prioritises a quick eco- Cuba nomic rebound. Mistrust within the opposition is rife, partly because almost every- Udder delight one has at some point dealt with Mr Ortega. In January its separate elements joined to form a National Coalition. The Civic Alli- ance left nine months later, angry that a party in the coalition had come under the regime’s sway. (It now has new leaders.) A Cuban student finds a way to extend the shelf life of dulce de leche To have any hope in November’s election the opposition will need to unite. A ubans love dulce de leche. The confec- Adriana Rodríguez, a student of chemical candidate needs only a plurality to win. In Ction of thickened, sweetened milk is an biology, reported in her master’s thesis that an opinion poll in June, no opposition fig- ingredient of popular desserts, including she had solved the spoilage problem. Her ure was mentioned as the probable winner tarta de tres leches (three-milk cake) and al- research was prompted by complaints by more than 13% of respondents. “We lack fajores. In a country where fresh milk is from shoppers at stores supplied by Gran- a messiah,” says Juan Sebastián Chamorro, scarce, it is sold in the form of solid bars, a lac, a state-run dairy firm, which employs the head of the Civic Alliance. The opposi- sugary way to get a bit of milk protein. her. After two years of experimenting she tion has until June to register a candidate But the bars do not stand up well to concluded that the admixture of potassi- as the nominee of a party (perhaps the Cuba’s heat and humidity. Mould and yeast um sorbate, a common preservative, as small independent Citizens for Liberty). spot them, often well before the sell-by 0.11% of the product’s weight would in- Contenders include Mr Maradiaga, Mr date. So it was cause for excitement when crease its shelf life from a promised seven Chamorro and Medardo Mairena, the peas- days to 30. The new recipe also made the ants’ leader. It is not clear how the choice bars harder, and therefore less prone to will be made. In a stalemate Cristiana Cha- crumble. La Demajagua, a state-run news- morro, Mr Chamorro’s cousin and the paper, broke the news in November and daughter of Violeta Chamorro, who suc- other newspapers followed. Production of ceeded Mr Ortega in 1990, could become long-life dulce de leche is on its way. the opposition’s standard bearer. Mana- This is a rare success in a long and most- gua’s magnates would back her. ly thwarted quest to satisfy Cubans’ craving Mr Ortega is already harassing his for dairy foods. In a speech in 2007 Raúl would-be opponents. Mr Maradiaga says Castro, then the country’s president, de- he has lost three drivers in three months clared: “We must produce enough milk so because the police confiscated their li- that any Cuban who wishes to drink a glass cences. Last year Mr Mairena was convicted of it can.” His brother, Fidel Castro, the of attempting to overthrow the govern- founder of Cuba’s revolution, loved ice ment and sentenced to 216 years in prison, cream almost as much as cigars. In a fore- where he was tortured. He was eventually word to a book based on interviews with Fi- pardoned. Mr Ortega may not allow any del, Gabriel García Márquez recounts a credible candidate to challenge him. Sunday afternoon during which, after a The government has recently enacted large lunch, the leader gobbled 18 scoops. laws that would mete out prison sentences He also liked to quaff chocolate milkshakes for spreading “fake news” (as the regime at the Havana Libre hotel. In 1963 the cia defines it) and brand as “foreign agents” took advantage of this weakness by at- ngos that get money from abroad. Under a tempting to poison one. The plot failed be- new law, perpetrators of “hate crimes” can Another food-preservation triumph cause the pill to be slipped into Castro’s 1 38 The Americas The Economist December 12th 2020

Bello Natural and political disasters

Hurricane devastation in Central America is a problem for Joe Biden, too t is a month since Central America was state by self-serving elites. Government Honduras, it is “patchy”, says George Ihit in quick succession by two hurri- spending in both countries is the lowest Redman of Oxfam, a British charity. He canes. Parts of northern Honduras are per person in the region, after only Haiti. points out that not only was the govern- still under water: 50 bridges are down, Guatemala had protests in November over ment unprepared—just weeks before the and 120 roads and many hospitals and Mr Giammattei’s budget, which cut educ- hurricanes it appointed a reggaeton schools are still flooded. In all, some 200 ation spending while lavishing money on singer with no relevant experience to people died and 7m were affected by the insiders. Mr Hernández faced protests in head its disaster-relief organisation—but storms, most of them in Honduras and 2017, when opponents accused him of that the presence of street gangs Guatemala, according to the un. Tens of fraudulently winning a second term. complicates aid distribution. thousands of homes were destroyed, and Millions of Guatemalans and Hondu- Donors face a dilemma. The need is perhaps 175,000 people are living in rans have fled violence, poverty and clim- huge, but so is corruption. The former makeshift shelters. ate change (which has hurt farming). director of Invest-h, a supposedly cor- The hurricanes came at a bad time, Rather than raising taxes on the better-off ruption-proof agency that implements amid the pandemic and its economic to spend on health, education, security, foreign-financed projects, is being inves- slump. Whereas in Guatemala and Nic- disaster preparedness and climate-change tigated over misuse of foreign loans aragua they struck rural areas, in Hondu- mitigation, the rulers of both countries during the pandemic. Central America ras they devastated the Sula valley, the have preferred to rely on remittances from will thus be an immediate problem for country’s economic heartland. The the leavers, which account for 22% of gdp Joe Biden’s administration in the United Honduran economy was already set to in Honduras and 14% in Guatemala. Gov- States. Arrivals at the southern border shrink by 7%, and unemployment had ernments kicked out international bodies have risen since the covid-19 recession soared. Honduras, a country of 10m set up to tackle corruption and organised began. The new administration “will people, “is now facing the greatest cata- crime in both countries. Prosecutors in have to balance a desire for a more hu- strophe in its history”, says Gina Kawas, a New York say Mr Hernández took a bribe manitarian approach [to immigration] consultant at the Central American Bank from a drug-trafficker (he denies this). His with protecting the border”, says an for Economic Integration who is based in brother was convicted of drug-trafficking American official who has worked on Tegucigalpa, the capital. Total damage is by a court in New York in 2019. Central America. “It’s a challenge and it’s equivalent to 40% of gdp. Although a relief effort is under way in going to come quickly,” he says. With livelihoods destroyed, the flow Mr Biden has promised a $4bn plan to of migrants to the United States is likely deal with the root causes of migration to increase. So think the presidents of from Central America. This builds on a Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernández, and scheme he promoted when he was vice- Guatemala, Alejandro Giammattei. Both president. It aims to strengthen the rule have cited the likelihood of increased of law and democratic governance, partly migration when calling for North Ameri- by helping local anti-corruption cam- can help. “If we don’t want to see hordes paigners and prosecutors, who have had of Central Americans looking to go to some success. The need for foreign help countries with a better quality of life, we for reconstruction should offer leverage have to create walls of prosperity in for reform. One idea is to set up an inter- Central America,” said Mr Giammattei. national body to work with local public This is realistic—and an implicit auditors to track spending. But Honduras threat. Honduras and Guatemala are and Guatemala need political change, among the worst-governed countries in rather than just protest or individual Latin America. They offer a caricature of efforts. Sadly, this is not on the horizon. the region’s ills, of poverty, inequality, That is a problem for the United States, as racism, corruption and the capture of the well as for the countries themselves.

2 shake froze to the wall of the hotel’s freezer. bus, hoping to create hardy milk cows. Just bring relief to sweltering Cubans. Undaunted, Fidel made dairy goods a one of their offspring lived up to Fidel’s Things have not improved much. In Oc- symbol of the revolution. He wanted to hopes. Ubre Blanca (“White Udder”) set tober this year Marino Murillo Jorge, the prove that Cuba could churn ice cream as Guinness world records for daily and sea- economy and planning minister, said Cuba well as the Americans, and outdo the sonal milk production. When she was could import milk more cheaply than it French in making Camembert. In the 1960s slaughtered in 1985, aged 13, Granma, the could produce it. But since foreign curren- Coppelia, a sprawling outdoor ice-cream Communist Party’s newspaper, published cy is scarce, so is milk. Coppelia serves few- parlour in downtown Havana, served 50 a full-page obituary. er flavours: vanilla, coffee, coconut and flavours to 35,000 customers a day. Dairy disaster deepened in 1990, after tiramisu, recalls a recent visitor. The only But the island’s Creole and Zebu cows the former East Germany halted food ship- Cubans who can count on a daily glass of were lacklustre lactators. Fidel ordered the ments to the island and the Soviet Union milk are those younger than seven, who get import of Holsteins from Canada, but cut back on deliveries of butter. Fidel fam- a serving through the ration-book system. many perished in Cuba’s heat. Government ously chose to produce ice cream rather For sweet-toothed adults there’s dulce de breeders tried mating Holsteins with Ze- than butter, perhaps thinking it would leche, soon minus the mould. 7 Asia The Economist December 12th 2020 39

Covid-19 in Japan or so in America and Britain (see chart on next page). 3C epiphany Instead, the government tried to apply the lessons of the Diamond Princess. After trained quarantine officers and nurses were infected aboard the ship, despite following protocols for viruses that spread TOKYO through droplets, Mr Oshitani’s team con- Japan has had a milder epidemic than most countries, in part because health-care cluded that the virus spread through the officials understood the disease better air. As early as March, Japanese officials be- hen the Diamond Princess, a cruise “From the beginning we did not aim at gan warning citizens to avoid the san-mitsu Wship suffering from an outbreak of containment,” says Oshitani Hitoshi, a vi- or “3cs”: closed spaces, crowded places and covid-19, arrived in Japan in February, it rologist who sits on an expert panel advis- close-contact settings. The phrase was seemed like a stroke of bad luck. A small ing the government. That would require blasted across traditional and social me- floating petri dish threatened to turn the identifying all possible cases, which is not dia. Surveys conducted in the spring found Japanese archipelago into a big one. In feasible in a country of Japan’s size when that a big majority were avoiding 3c set- retrospect, however, the early exposure the majority of infections produce mild or tings. The publishing house Jiyukokumin- taught the authorities lessons that have no symptoms, argues Mr Oshitani: “Even if sha recently declared it “buzzword of the helped make Japan’s epidemic the mildest you test everyone once per week, you’ll still year” for 2020. among the world’s big economies, despite miss some.” Japan performs the fewest The Diamond Princess also inspired an a recent surge in infections. In total 2,487 tests in the g7: an average of 270 a day for early focus on clusters. The government set people have died of the coronavirus in Ja- every million people, compared with 4,000 up a cluster-busting taskforce in March. pan, just over half the number in China and These insights allowed the authorities fewer people than on a single day in Ameri- to make granular distinctions about risks, ca several times over the past week. Japan Also in this section opting for targeted restrictions rather than has suffered just 18 deaths per million peo- swinging between the extremes of strict 40 Suicide in South Korea ple, a higher rate than in China, but by far lockdowns and free-for-all openings. the lowest in the g7, a club of big, industri- 41 Nature conservation in Thailand Nishimura Yasutoshi, the minister over- alised democracies. (Germany comes in seeing the government’s response to co- 41 Policing in the Philippines second, at 239.) Most strikingly, Japan has vid-19, carries a device that monitors car- achieved this success without strict lock- 42 Banyan: Thailand’s absolutist king bon dioxide to measure the quality of downs or mass testing—the main weapons ventilation during his meetings. (The room 44 Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh in the battle against covid-19 elsewhere. where he and your correspondent meet 1 40 Asia The Economist December 12th 2020

therefore potentially more vulnerable to than those of any other oecd country ex- To test or not to test? covid-19, it is also very healthy. Only 4.2% cept Lithuania. In 2019 there were 27 deaths Daily covid-19 tests per 1,000 population of Japanese adults are obese, a condition from suicide for every 100,000 people, al- 2020, seven-day moving average known to make the disease more lethal. most four times the number in Britain and oecd Britain United States Italy France That is the lowest rate in the and a nearly twice as many as in America. In oth- Germany Canada Japan tenth of America’s. Japan also has a good er respects, however, South Korea follows 6 health-care system, with universal cover- global patterns: men and the elderly tend age and lots of well-equipped hospitals. It to be at higher risk of suicide than women even had lots of already trained contact- and the young—making the increase in 4 tracers, part of an established public- suicide among younger women all the health network dating back to the1930s. more puzzling. These advantages clearly have their lim- Sociologists tend to attribute the high 2 its. The virus has spread rapidly in recent overall rate to social and economic upheav- weeks, reaching record highs in terms both al. They argue that rapid economic devel- 0 of daily cases and daily deaths. The govern- opment combined with a clash between DNOSAJJMAM ment has had to dispatch medical person- traditional social expectations and the in- nel from the Self-Defence Forces to shore dividualism of modern life have plunged Source: Our World In Data up hospitals in the worst-hit spots. But at the country into the sort of confusion that the same time it has discouraged caution Emile Durkheim, a 19th-century sociolo- 2 registers 506 parts per million, safely be- with a scheme that subsidises domestic gist, called “anomie”, in which conflicting low the threshold of 1000 ppm that indi- tourism and meals out, in an effort to help social signals drive people to despair. That cates poor air flow. The interview takes the economy. Although this seems to have sort of tension may be particularly acute place across a large table, behind plastic contributed to covid-19’s recent spread, the for young women in contemporary South shields and with face masks on.) government has only curbed it rather than Korea, says Timothy Kang of the University Researchers deployed Fugaku, the scrapping it. And cold weather is now of Saskatchewan in Canada. Having been world’s fastest supercomputer, to model pushing people into 3c spaces, as it has brought up in the same competitive aca- different situations. Crowded subways been across the northern hemisphere. But demic environment as their male peers, pose little risk, if windows are open and in Japan, at least, the recent growth in the they then encounter discrimination in the passengers wear masks, Mr Nishimura in- number of cases has started from a dramat- workplace, sexist standards of beauty and sists. Sitting diagonally, rather than di- ically lower base. 7 pressure to marry and have children. rectly across from each other can reduce South Korean feminists argue that the the risk of infection by 75%. Movie theatres pressure on women has been compounded are safe, “even if viewers are eating pop- Suicide in South Korea in recent years by the use of the internet to corn and hot dogs”, Mr Nishimura says. propagate misogynistic views and to dis- While most cinemas in the West are closed, Deepening despair seminate illicitly obtained images of wom- “Demon Slayer”, a new anime flick, has en, often from spycams hidden in toilets been playing to full houses in Japan, be- and changing rooms. The country’s vocal coming the country’s second-highest women’s movement has faced an intem- grossing film ever. In addition to the 3cs, perate backlash from men who object to its the Japanese government warns of five SEOUL demands. “The relentlessness of the at- The number of young women killing more specific dangers: dinner parties with tacks is a big problem for women,” says themselves is rising booze; drinking and eating in groups of Shin Min-joo, an activist who has received more than four; talking without masks at s of december 10th, 564 South Kore- plenty of online vitriol herself. The sui- close quarters; living in dormitories and Aans had died of covid-19. Roughly twice cides in 2019 of two female celebrities fol- other small shared spaces; and using that number died by suicide every month lowing months of online trolling may have changing or break rooms. between January and September, the latest added to the trauma, she suggests. Of course, these insights would have month for which data are available. Half as Economic precariousness is another been for naught if ordinary people had ig- many again made the attempt and were factor. Sluggish economic growth over the nored them. But Japanese heeded the gov- saved by the emergency services. past few years has been harder on young ernment’s advice to stay home and to quar- High as these numbers are, they are women, who are more likely to be em-1 antine if showing any symptoms of the mercifully much lower than a decade ago, coronavirus, even though these admoni- when the suicide rate began to decline tions carried no legal force. “Sometimes we sharply. Unfortunately, this happy trend Young and hopeless are criticised for being an overly homoge- has recently gone into reverse (see chart). South Korea, suicides per 100,000 population neous society, but I think it played a posi- The reversal is largely driven by women in 40 tive role this time,” Mr Nishimura says. their teens, 20s and 30s. Between 2018 and And already spick-and-span Japan became 2019 the number of women in their 20s dy- Overall population even more punctilious about hygiene. ing by suicide rose by a quarter as the num- 30 While Americans argued over whether face ber of men of the same age killing them- coverings were an assault on personal free- selves stayed more or less constant. Data 20 dom, Japanese lined up outside Uniqlo for from the first three-quarters of 2020 sug- Men aged 20-29 the release of its new line of masks. During gest the suicide rate among young women 10 the first ten weeks of flu season this au- is rising still more. What is going on? OECD average tumn, Japan saw just 148 cases of common In most rich and middle-income coun- Women aged 20-29 influenza, or less than 1% of the five-year tries suicide rates have been low and de- 0 average for the same period (17,000). clining in recent years. Though South Ko- 2000 05 10 1915 Better yet, although the population of rea had begun to follow that trend, its Sources: Statistics Korea; OECD Japan is disproportionally elderly, and people are more likely to kill themselves The Economist December 12th 2020 Asia 41

2 ployed in the service sector and on short- home-schooling kids and looking after vember, officials vowed to expand support term contracts. The pandemic has proba- vulnerable relatives during the pandemic. for those at risk, particularly young women bly exacerbated these problems. The drop Past experience suggests that economic in precarious circumstances. The national in the share of women in work this autumn distress may raise the suicide rate: around suicide hotline, which has been under- compared with the year before has been the financial crisis in 2008, both young staffed, is recruiting more sympathetic three times bigger than that for men. “The men and young women took their lives in ears. Public-information campaigns have economic precarity and the social isolation greater numbers, with the rate among tried to reduce the taboos around mental that it causes are major problems for young women exceeding that among men for sev- health in recent years, and the government women, particularly those living on their eral years. has become a bit keener to combat sexism. own,” says Yun Kim Ji-yeong of Konkuk The government is taking the problem All of this is welcome. But if rising suicide University in Seoul. In addition, women more seriously than in the past. In a meet- rates are indeed the result of rapid social with families have borne the brunt of ing on suicide prevention at the end of No- change, a quick reprieve is unlikely. 7

Policing in the Philippines Beatings v shootings

MANILA The trigger-happy president shows a softer side he rattan sticks being issued to the TPhilippine National Police to keep people apart during the covid-19 epidemic are versatile, Lieutenant-General Cesar Binag explained: “They will be one metre long, and will be used for enforcement, for mea- suring, or for hitting those that are hard- headed.” To critics of President Rodrigo Du- Nature conservation in Thailand terte, the announcement, on December 4th, was yet another sign of the brutality of Unshellfish love his regime. The Commission on Human Rights, a state body, remarked drily: “Vio- lence, even in its slightest suggestion, is The government finds houses for homeless crustaceans not the best way to address the pandemic.” mid a slump in tourism, one nation- wut Silpa-archa, the minister for natural Even Mr Duterte’s own spokesman, Harry Aal park in Thailand has seen a dra- resources. His inspiration comes from Roque, had to acknowledge that it would be matic rise in visitors. So numerous are the hiatus in tourism brought on by against the law for a police officer to whack the hermit crabs thronging the otherwise covid-19. A ban on international visitors anybody with a stick without proper cause. empty beaches of Koh Lanta that shells (now lifted, subject to quarantine) and The police have demonstrated a great for them to live in have become a scarce the closure of national parks have helped proclivity for violence during Mr Duterte’s commodity. The Thai government nature rebound, bringing black-tipped four-year-old war on illegal drugs. His moved quickly to ease the housing short- reef sharks back into Thai waters and campaign against both dealers and users age, launching a public appeal for empty endangered leatherback turtles back has killed thousands of people. At least shells that netted over 200kg. On Decem- onto Thai beaches. In the coastal prov- 5,903 of them, by the official count, have ber 5th these were distributed around the inces of Phang Nga and Phuket, turtles perished at the hands of the security ser- park in a ceremony marking the birthday have laid the largest number of eggs for vices, guided by his exhortation to kill any- of the late king, Bhumibol Adulyadej. 20 years. body who violently resists arrest. (Thou- Hermit crabs rely on discarded shells The government has decided to try to sands more have been killed by unknown to protect their soft bodies, moving to mimic the respite forced on it by the assailants.) Yet in the most recent of his fre- larger shells as they grow. On Koh Lanta coronavirus in future. From now on, all quent addresses to the nation Mr Duterte and the surrounding, smaller islands, national parks will be required to close surprised his critics. Instead of ordering their rapid increase seems to be a natural for part of the off-season and to limit the the police to crack heads if people failed to phenomenon, rather than directly relat- number of tourists through a reservation stay a metre apart, he gave a well-reasoned ed to the absence of tourists. But the system when they are open. The tempo- argument for the advantages of equipping shortage of shells may be man-made: rary closure last year of Maya Bay, made the police with rattan sticks or, better still, pretty ones have long been gathered to be famous as the eponymous strand in the proper batons, as a means to reduce their sold as souvenirs. Crabs had begun to film “The Beach” and subsequently use of guns and thus stem bloodshed. make do with potential death-traps such overrun by tourists, set a precedent. “When a person resists arrest and he be- as plastic caps and bottles. Although such restrictions mean re- comes violent, the first impulse of a police The shell drive was part of a govern- duced earnings from tourism in the short without a baton is to hold his gun,” he said. ment initiative to “restore the balance of term, in the longer run more pristine “He might not draw it, but he holds his gun, nature”. “I have instructed all national parks may help to keep the tourists com- ready for action. If he has a baton you just parks to do whatever it takes,” says Vara- ing—and shelling out. hit the hand, hit the body. It would be painful. Maybe you can subdue the person re-1 42 Asia The Economist December 12th 2020

2 sisting arrest.” The president promised the a little too long-winded to be entertaining. forces to shoot dead anyone in Manila police that he would issue them with But it is not just theatre: this seems to be breaking lockdown rules. Twenty days lat- proper batons, and told them: “Use the ba- how policy is made in Mr Duterte’s Philip- er a police officer enforcing the lockdown ton, not the gun.” pines—openly, on screen, evolving hap- killed an ex-soldier who was being argu- Mr Duterte often goes on television to hazardly from off-the-cuff remarks made mentative. The victim’s behaviour may deliver rambling monologues about what by the president, which his subordinates have been due to mental illness stemming his government is doing or what he wants must interpret as best they can. from his military service. The police officer it to do. These talks are replete with vitup- Mr Roque is the chief interpreter of such who fired the fatal shots was later charged eration, threats and unfunny jokes. Minis- remarks. The spokesman’s mantra is that with murder. ters, members of Congress, civil servants Mr Duterte’s statements should be taken This episode may help to explain Mr Du- and military or police officers appear seriously, but not literally. Taking the pres- terte’s new enthusiasm for batons. And for alongside him, to voice their agreement ident literally can have deadly conse- once he put his ideas in plain words, which with whatever he says. It is a ritual that quences. In a televised speech on April 1st the police can take both seriously and liter- many ordinary Filipinos find endearing, if Mr Duterte urged the police and armed ally, without fatal consequences. 7 Banyan Cosplaying nice

Thailand’s king is on his best behaviour he weeks of stand-off between for all Thais, protesters included. Thai- of the limelight could be helpful. Tyoung Thai activists and the estab- land, he added, is a “land of compromise”. For the protesters, the king’s conduct lishment they are challenging have not The monarchy’s critics are not swallow- in Germany only reinforces their scorn been short of political theatre. The prot- ing it. The martinet king has taken perso- for his attempts to burnish his image in esters are calling for the resignation of nal command of important military units Thailand. Not least, a mistress, Sineenat the army-backed prime minister, for and direct control over the crown’s im- Wongvajirapakdi, whom the king sum- open elections and, above all, for an mense property holdings and investment marily dismissed last year for “misbe- absolutist monarchy to be modernised. portfolio. He now has at his disposal over haviour” and “disloyalty”, has been rein- They raise the three-finger salute of $60bn in assets—more than the sultan of stated as the “untainted” royal consort. defiance from “The Hunger Games”. Brunei and the British royal family com- She accompanies the king and queen on Giant inflatable ducks lend their bined. Even if he is paying more attention their walkabouts. The king’s polygyny, marches a carnival air—and also prove to appearances, the critics say, there is no his humiliation of the women vying for useful as protection against water can- sign that the king, an absolutist through his capricious affection; his habit of non. And thousands of letters demand- and through, is thinking of giving up any making even the prime minister pros- ing that King Maha Vajiralongkorn accept of his authority. trate himself before his majesty: instead limits to his power and wealth were Meanwhile, says Pavin Chachavalpong- of connecting with members of a new delivered in replica post boxes to the very pun of Kyoto University, a “push factor” generation demanding gender equality, gates of the hallowed royal palace in helps explain the king’s absence from democracy and respect for individual Bangkok. Germany—the growing risks of greater rights, the king’s comportment repulses The monarchy in Thailand sits atop a parliamentary scrutiny of his presence them. As Netiwit “Frank” Chotiphat- cosmic hierarchy that demands order there and whether it contravenes a ban on phaisal, a prominent activist, puts it, the and obedience and offers beneficence. foreign states operating on German soil. walkabouts—the king in a white military Never has it been challenged in this way The European press gleefully reports not uniform slathered with gold braid—are before. Yet the king of four years, to only on how he churns through wives and just cosplay in service of the king’s ego. whom even his most loyal supporters mistresses but also on his cavortings. Mr Pavin points out that, for all his hesitate to attribute a great love of de- Paparazzi keep snapping the 68-year-old in talk of compromise, the king, although mocracy, has betrayed no irritation and crop tops and stick-on tattoos. A spell out supposedly above the political fray, only even slightly changed his ways. meets and greets his supporters. Mean- A playboy resident in Germany, where while, the prime minister, Prayuth Chan- he occupies a floor in an upscale Bavar- ocha, who led the coup in 2014 in which ian hotel with a shifting harem of “sex the army (ostensibly in defence of the soldiers”, King Vajiralongkorn normally monarchy) seized power, grows less spends only brief spells in the country he conciliatory by the day. In particular, a rules. But recently he has stayed put in draconian law against “insulting” the Thailand. More striking still, for the first monarchy has been dusted off and used time since his accession (and indeed the against more than a score of activists. Mr first time in decades), he has mingled Prayuth’s star, admittedly, is waning with with his people. The stiff and aloof king the king, not least for letting the protests has gone walkabout, descending from wax so dramatically. But if Mr Prayuth is his vintage Rolls-Royce to allow adoring dismissed as a scapegoat, it will surely be subjects dressed in yellow (which signi- because King Vajiralongkorn wants his fies devotion to the monarchy) to touch successor to take a harder line. With the the royal feet. In his first comments as monarch digging in and young prot- king to the foreign press, with Queen esters convinced that change has arrived, Suthida on his arm, he expressed “love” the cosplay is becoming serious. If you have an in�estment portfolio of $500,000 or more, get...

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Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh leged “gunﬁghts” with security forces, in incidents that look more like executions. It Club Mud has also built barbed-wire fences around the sprawling camps, the biggest of which houses nearly 600,000 people. Restrictions on the refugees are multi- plying. Last year the government banned them from owning sim cards and ordered DELHI the telecom authority to block mobile-in- The government is moving Rohingyas to a remote island ternet service in the camps. Though the he flotilla that sailed from the port of Dhaka networks were restored a few months ago, TChattogram (formerly known as Chitta- sim cards are still forbidden. Rohingyas are gong) in southern Bangladesh on Decem- also barred from holding bank accounts

ber 4th was carrying some 1,642 refugees to M and from paid work. Learning is almost as e g a new life across the water. But their desti- h hard as earning. Having resisted pressure n nation was no far-off promised land. It a from ngos to grant Rohingyas access to took less than four hours’ churning BANGLADESH education for nearly three years, the gov- through the wide, muddy estuary of the ernment had been on the verge of allowing Meghna River to reach Bhasan Char, an is- Chattogram some children to go school in April, when land no bigger than a large city park, and so covid-19 intervened. freshly formed it barely peeps above sur- Bhasan The move to Bhasan Char fits this pat- rounding tidal flats (see map). Char tern, and the growing authoritarianism of It is here, improbably, that the govern- Sheikh Hasina, who has been in power ment of Bangladesh has built a red-roofed, Cox’s Bazar without interruption since 2009. Trouble- Bay of grid-patterned model town, intended to MYANMAR makers can be more easily controlled on Bengal Refugee house Rohingyas, an ethnic minority from camps the island, and it would be useful to reduce neighbouring Myanmar. Some 700,000 of 100 km the density of mainland camps. It is per- them were chased into Bangladesh three haps no coincidence that cctv cameras years ago by the Burmese army and allied monitor all the streets of Bhasan Char, or militias in a horrifying bout of ethnic and sheltered so many desperate refugees, that the government has just created a new cleansing. Bhasan Char can house about ordinary Bangladeshis have gradually body to oversee refugee affairs. The 15-per- 100,000. The hosts present the new settle- grown less welcoming. Stories of violent son committee includes at least ten senior ment, erected at a cost of $300m by the crime and disease in the border camps have security officials, and no representatives of Bangladeshi navy, as a safe, sanitary and spread, exacerbated by fears of covid-19 the Rohingyas. humane alternative to the teeming and and by the smuggling from Myanmar of Despite deep misgivings among aid squalid refugee camps that have mush- arms and of drugs such as yaba, a cheap workers, there is some sympathy for Ban- roomed along the jungly border. form of methamphetamine that is ubiqui- gladesh’s dilemma. If the relocation brings Yet while some of the island’s new resi- tous in Bangladesh. more attention to the Rohingyas’ plight, dents say they are happy to have pukka The police, who in addition fear jihadist that might be a silver lining, speculates plumbing and cement floors, to many Ro- radicalisation among refugees, have adopt- John Quinley of Fortify Rights, an advocacy hingyas the permanence and isolation of ed an increasingly harsh line in the camps. group. “Bangladesh is right, calling out the the model town promise not relief but the Odhikar, a Bangladeshi human-rights international community for not pushing institutionalisation of their misery. An is- group, claims that since 2017 perhaps 100 hard enough on Myanmar,” he says. The un land exile, they fear, would mean less hope Rohingya men have been killed during al- High Commissioner for Refugees, the main of pricking the world’s conscience, and so coordinator of international relief, tiptoes less hope of ever returning to their original around criticism of Sheikh Hasina’s gov- homes in Myanmar. “After this move to ernment. What it and smaller charitable Bhasan Char, I see our people slowly dy- outfits would most like is access to Bhasan ing,” warns Ambia Perveen of the European Char. So far, Bangladesh has not allowed Rohingya Council, an ngo. “We are becom- any regular visits, or any independent as- ing the Palestinians of Asia.” sessment of the model town. Without this, When Sheikh Hasina Wajed, the prime the un cannot offer assistance. minister of Bangladesh, launched the relo- Despite some individual reports of cation project in 2018, a chorus of similar satisfaction with new homes on the island, objections erupted. Even as construction which also boasts schools and medical fa- went ahead, diplomats and aid workers ex- cilities, the refugees on the mainland seem pressed doubt that large numbers of refu- mostly sceptical. Many claim that the first gees would ever be settled on a remote is- to relocate to Bhasan Char were not volun- land prone to cyclones and floods. Aside teers, as claimed by the government, but from the cost and negative publicity, they were threatened by police, coerced or assumed, such a transfer would weaken swayed by false promises of money. “They the argument, strongly advanced by Ban- should call it jail island,” says Ro, a resident gladesh, that Myanmar itself must bear re- of a mainland camp, walking uphill for bet- sponsibility for the fate of the Rohingyas. ter telephone reception and a jumbled vista As time has passed, however, Sheikh of plastic sheeting, tin roofs and bamboo Hasina’s government has faced growing in- walls. At least here the Rohingya are close ternal pressure. Although proud that their to the border, and have some strength in own crowded country of 165m has aided Protection or oppression? numbers, he says. 7 China The Economist December 12th 2020 45

Exporting Xi Jinping thought fort belong to the foreign ministry. But many, such as those who organised the re- How the party trains foreign politicians cent seminar on poverty, work for a branch of the Communist Party called the Interna- tional Department. Its job is to win support for China among foreign political parties. The department is well suited to the task. Because it does not directly represent the Chinese state it has no role to play in China says it is not exporting a political model, but its officials like to give tips verbal sparring. But as a party outfit it has n early december Xi Jinping, China’s virtues of a form of governance that they considerable authority. It works closely Ileader, declared that the Communist believe is making China rich and can help with the foreign ministry and swaps per- Party had met a self-imposed deadline. Ex- other countries, too. Some welcome this sonnel with it. treme poverty (defined as earning a bit message, even in multiparty democracies. Late in 2017 it held a convention in Bei- more than $1 a day) has been eradicated At the poverty-alleviation forum, the secre- jing joined by leaders and other members from China. Naturally, the party is keen to tary-general of Kenya’s ruling Jubilee Party, of political parties from 120 countries. tell others about its success in fighting Raphael Tuju, was quoted as saying that Some delegates were from rich democra- penury. In October it hosted a mostly-virtu- China’s Communist Party should be an ex- cies such as Japan, New Zealand and Amer- al two-day seminar on the subject for near- ample for his own. ica. (Both Republicans and Democrats at- ly 400 people from more than 100 coun- In 2017 Mr Xi caused a stir in the West by tended.) Mr Xi gave the keynote address. tries. Participants quoted by official media suggesting that China’s development mod- Many participants signed a statement, the gushed praise for China’s progress. But the el offered “a new option” for other coun- “Beijing Initiative”, praising the Commu- gathering was not just about uplifting the tries, and that a “Chinese approach” could nist Party and Mr Xi. The department has needy. It was also aimed at showing off Chi- help solve humanity’s problems. Though few qualms about the kind of political par- na’s political model. he later insisted that his country did not ties with which it interacts. “They’ll deal In the West, recent coverage of China’s plan to export a “China model”, the coun- with right-wing parties and they’ll deal diplomacy has been dominated by talk of try’s officials have been, in effect, doing with left-wing parties and everybody in be- how aggressive it has become. Some of its just that. Some of those engaged in this ef- tween,” says David Shambaugh of George diplomats have been dubbed “wolf war- Washington University. riors” because of their habit of snarling at Under Mr Xi one of the department’s Also in this section foreign critics (the label refers to the title of main activities has been organising train- a jingoistic Chinese film). To non-Western 46 Club culture expands ing sessions for foreign political parties, audiences, by contrast, Chinese officials especially those from developing coun- 47 Chaguan: A visit to Xinjiang are speaking more softly. They preach the tries. It does not say outright that authori-1 46 China The Economist December 12th 2020

2 tarianism is good. But its mission is clearly Club culture to promote the virtues of strong centralised leadership. In November Song Tao, the department’s boss, claimed in an online A different beat briefing of party leaders from 36 sub-Saha- ran African countries that the party’s BEIJING The pandemic gives China’s disc jockeys a chance to shine achievements in development proved the wisdom of five-year plans. “The Chinese etting into Zhao Dai, an under- his business will probably break even system,” he said, could “serve as a refer- Gground nightclub in a fashionable this year, despite being closed for much ence” for his audience. He said that “only part of Beijing, involves a little more faff of its first half. by upholding the leadership of the party” than it once did. Party animals must The pandemic has wrought changes, could such plans “stay on the right track”. prove that they have not travelled any- nonetheless. Nightspots have long felt it During the pandemic much of the de- where they might have picked up co- necessary to fly in fashionable foreign partment’s instruction has been conducted vid-19, by showing doormen a code djs to help them draw crowds. As a result online, often focusing on China’s achieve- generated by a government mobile app. Chinese performers have always had to ments in crushing covid-19 (one lesson: Once inside, however, the smoke-filled make do with supporting slots, says tough measures work). Expositions on Mr basement is just as sweaty as usual. On a Huang Hongli, a dj who uses the stage Xi’s three-part tome, “The Governance of recent Saturday a hundred unmasked name of Hotwill. Now they have no China” have also been a common feature. revellers bopped to techno tunes. No one choice but to give locals a chance to In recent months such classes have been bothered to maintain social distancing shine. This summer Zhao Dai held an attended by officials from ruling parties in while dancing. outdoor festival, attended by 3,000 Angola, Congo-Brazzaville, Ghana, Mo- The pandemic posed an enormous people. The 40 djs who performed there zambique, Panama and Venezuela. threat to China’s fragile club scene. were all Chinese. Official websites in China often adver- Nightspots in Beijing were forced to shut A second effect of the pandemic has tise these efforts. One describes a ground- in January. They did not reopen properly been to help speed up the spread of Chi- breaking ceremony in 2018 for a China- until August. Yet many electronic-music na’s club culture beyond its traditional funded ideological school in Tanzania. It clubs have weathered the disruption, in bases in Beijing, Shanghai and the south- was attended by Mr Song, the department’s part because punters freed from lock- western city of Chengdu. When night- boss, and by ruling-party officials from down have flocked back to them. A clubs closed at the start of the year Mr Tanzania, South Africa, Angola, Mozam- bouncer eyeing the crowd at Zhao Dai Huang chose to leave the capital and bique, Namibia and Zimbabwe. says it is as busy as it was before the return to Xiamen, his hometown south In democracies such as Ghana, Kenya closures. Michael Ohlsson, the American of Shanghai, in part because of its lower and South Africa the department sponsors owner of Dada, another Beijing club, says cost of living. There he helped to launch trips to China by ruling-party members for the city’s first underground nightspot, the study of party-building and gover- which opened in April. This year’s clo- nance. In 2018 Ghana’s ruling centre-right sures gave Mr Ohlsson more time to plan New Patriotic Party (npp) asked for such the opening of a new club in Kunming, training in part to “deepen its ideological the capital of Yunnan province. skills”, found Joshua Eisenman of the Uni- Not everyone is happy. Ezzz, a Chi- versity of Notre Dame, an expert on the de- nese dj and music producer, grumbles partment’s activities in Africa. The former that many of the djs who have gained ruling party of Ghana, the National Demo- new followings during the pandemic are cratic Congress (ndc), has sent dozens of proficient performers but do not “units staff to China for such training. The ndc derstand electronic music culture”. Mr has also opened a leadership school in Gha- Huang looks forward to a time when a na. It uses teaching materials devised by few more foreigners can enter the coun- the Chinese Communist Party. try; he thinks some exposure to trends It is unclear what foreign party mem- from abroad is good for the local scene. bers gain from China’s training sessions. As for the audience, few seem to care They may be no more than a means of ca- much who is performing, so long as they reer advancement, or of paying ritual hom- have somewhere to dance. Lea Liao, a age to Mr Xi’s wisdom in order to curry fa- Beijinger who attended Zhao Dai’s sum- vour—China being a valuable source of mer festival, says she struggled to see the loans and investment in many developing stage because of all the gyrating bodies. countries. The seminars can be boozy jun- “But I could hear the music, and that is all kets, dreary snoozefests, or both. An Egyp- Fans of fun that matters.” tian veteran of them says they are hardly rigorous; she likened the experience to a “paid vacation”. Martin Hala of Sinopsis, which monitors politicians who find the checks and bal- The department says it has contact with China’s activities in Central Europe, has ances of democracy irksome. In June Ken- more than 600 political organisations in called this akin to forming a “new Comin- ya’s Mr Tuju (the cheerleader for China at over 160 countries. Under Mr Xi such en- tern”—a reference to the old Soviet-led in- the anti-poverty seminar in October) was gagements have grown. Christine Hacke- ternational communist movement. challenged about his party’s affection for nesch and Julia Bader, writing for Interna- There is a critical difference, however. the Chinese Communist Party by a reader tional Studies Quarterly, found that the China is not preaching communism. Its of a Nairobi newspaper. He replied that he number of high-level party-to-party meet- aim, rather, is to show that a country can did not see what was wrong with “learning ings increased by more than 50% between become richer without being democratic. from the most successful and the best run” 2012 and 2017, to more than 230 annually. That message finds attentive ears among party in the world. 7 The Economist December 12th 2020 China 47 Chaguan China doubles down in Xinjiang

Chaguan pays an uninvited visit to a factory complex accused of using forced Uyghur labour ter-terrorism work in Xinjiang with nationwide campaigns to as- similate ethnic minorities and push the rural poor into formal employment, in the name of development and social stability. A State Council white paper from September, detailing training and job placement campaigns in Xinjiang, found 2.6m “rural surplus workers” in the region, notably Uyghurs with “outdated ideas”. Hints of trouble abound. The white paper blames “terrorists, separatists and religious extremists” for inciting locals to “refuse to improve their vocational skills”. Global firms that audit multi- national supply chains for labour abuses increasingly decline to operate in Xinjiang, blaming authorities for obstructing their work. Earlier this year the American government said that it sus- pects several businesses in Lop County of using forced labour, specifically firms trading in human hair. American customs officers seized tonnes of wigs and hairpieces in June, then afterwards banned all hair imports from the Lop County Hair Products Indus- trial Park, a zone within the Beijing Industrial Park. Chinese government spokesmen and state media dismiss talk of forced labour as a smear by Westerners bent on keeping China down. To an optimist, such shrill denials might suggest that sanctions are biting. Xinjiang has a lot to lose: it supplies almost a fifth of the world’s cotton, among other commodities. Your columnist, who is vast expanse of sand dunes, studded with the wind-eroded not generally an optimist, headed to Lop County to take a look in Aruins of lost Silk Road cities, the Taklamakan Desert is a fine person. Chaguan travelled with a reporter from another Western place to hide a guilty secret. At first glance, shame is a plausible ex- newspaper. As happens in Xinjiang, police were already waiting planation for a mini construction-boom under way in this remote for the foreign journalists at Hotan, the nearest airport to Lop corner of Xinjiang. For outsiders are increasingly shocked by Chi- County. An hour later, goons blocked an access road to the indus- na’s rule over this north-western region, where millions of Uygh- trial park, turning Chaguan’s taxi away. He and his colleague final- urs, an ethnic minority, endure oppressive, high-tech surveillance ly arrived on foot after a long desert walk around the park bound- and the constant fear of detention for alleged Islamic extremism. ary, a metal fence topped with four strands of electrified wire. For the past few years overseas human-rights groups and scholars have used satellite images and Chinese government docu- Defiance in the desert ments to track dozens of factories rising on the Taklamakan’s American sanctions have yet to paralyse Lop County’s factories, it southern edge in Lop County, a poor and almost entirely Uyghur can be reported. On a freezing but sunny weekend morning, the area. The factories line the newly laid streets of an industrial park entrance to the hair-products park was busy with traffic. Nearby, sponsored by the city of Beijing, 4,000km to the east. More alarm- construction workers toiled on new buildings. The arrival of for- ingly, satellite images and the Xinjiang government’s own propa- eign reporters triggered bouts of pushing and arm-grabbing by un- ganda suggest that as the park rose from the desert sands, at least identified men bent on stopping the Westerners from proceeding one political re-education camp lurked amid the factories. further, one of whom called himself “the person responsible for Across Xinjiang over a million Uyghurs have passed through the park”. Trying to grab reporters’ smartphones, they demanded such camps in recent years. Officials eventually admitted to the the deletion of pictures of their industrial zone and of what ap- camps’ existence in 2018. Pointing to terrorist attacks by Muslims pears to be a training facility at the park’s southern end, resem- from Xinjiang, they said China had set up vocational training cen- bling a secure boarding school, down to young adults lined up in tres to cure minds infected with religious extremism. In October rows on a playing field. Questions were greeted with evasions. “We 2018 China Central Television toured a camp in Hotan, an ancient don’t really have dealings with the outside world,” replied one of oasis city. Detainees were shown in Mandarin-language classes, the men when asked about American sanctions. Initially asserting studying Chinese laws and learning such skills as sewing, before that his company only sells to domestic markets, he then claimed thanking authorities for saving them. In contrast, critics call the that it makes nothing at all and “is still being put together”. campaign both brutal in its methods and horrifyingly arbitrary in The men staged one more physical confrontation when a hulk- its application. Leaked government files record Uyghurs interned ing, prison-like complex with tall grey walls and guard towers for such “suspicious” acts as growing long beards, applying for a came into view. Failing to stop the foreigners from seeing the pri- passport or using foreign messaging services like Skype. Ex-de- son, they focused on preventing photography. tainees have accused camp staff of beatings and rapes. Still, evidence-destruction is not a sign of a sore conscience. Now this giant social-engineering project is evolving. In late Bits of the park designed to be seen from the ground by locals are 2019 officials said that all detainees have graduated from compul- unapologetic. Giant rooftop characters in the training facility spell sory studies. On a recent weekend Chaguan visited the Hotan city out such slogans as: “Labour is glorious” and “Serve the economy”. camp toured by state television and found it apparently aban- A poster by the main gate shows President Xi Jinping surrounded doned, observed only by a clutch of camels and locals digging for by smiling Uyghur children. China’s regime is secretive because it white jade in a dried-up riverbed. Closing highly visible sites sig- has no patience for debating its policies with foreigners. It is proud nals shifting tactics, not a change of heart. China is merging coun- of its iron-fisted rule in Xinjiang, and is not about to change. 7 48 Middle East & Africa The Economist December 12th 2020

Mining’s toxic legacy what they will do,” he says. Children are more likely to inhale and ingest toxic dust. Lead astray Their bodies are more susceptible to its potential effects, such as behavioural problems, learning disabilities and lower iqs. Three-quarters of Kabwe’s population are estimated to have more than five micrograms of lead per decilitre in their KABWE blood, levels scientists consider elevated. A class-action lawsuit shines light on a polluted town Among children the average levels are zael tembo takes a seat in the shade of been to,” says Richard Fuller, its president. much higher (see chart on next page). “Kab- Aa mango tree outside his house. He Prolonged exposure to lead degrades we is the most polluted place for children kicks up the dust. “It’s affected,” he says, the body’s nervous and circulatory sys- on the planet,” says Jack Caravanos of the pointing to the plume around his feet. The tems, damaging the brain and other or- nyu School of Global Public Health. 67-year-old lives in Kabwe, a town in cen- gans. It is associated with higher rates of The pollution in Kabwe is a scandal. Yet tral Zambia whose history, like that of miscarriage, convulsions, comas and responsibility for it has long been con- much of the southern African country, is death. Mr Tembo believes his poor eyesight tested, and that is set to continue. In Octo- intertwined with mining. Kabwe sprung and sore limbs are from lead poisoning. ber Mbuyisa Moleele Attorneys, a South Af- up around a mine founded in 1904 by the But his main concern is for his four rican law firm, with help from Leigh Day, a Rhodesian Broken Hill Development Com- grandchildren, in particular the two-year- British one, announced a class-action law- pany, a British colonial firm. For decades old. She enjoys playing outside and is suit against a subsidiary of Anglo American miners like Mr Tembo crushed and burnt puckishly recalcitrant when told to stop on behalf of potentially more than 100,000 ore to extract lead. That metal made Kabwe putting things in her mouth. “I tell her children and women of reproductive age in but it also devastated it. To this day lead mum to not let her eat the soil, but kids do Kabwe. It is targeting Anglo because it was particles blow across town, making their affiliated to the mine from the 1920s until way into houses and bloodstreams. shortly after Zambia’s mines were nation- Also in this section Scientists generally consider soil haz- alised in 1970. ardous if it has more than 400mg of lead 49 Ghana’s skirt-and-blouse vote The suit claims that most of the pollu- per kilogram. In three townships near the tion stems from the period when the mine 50 The boycott of Qatar old mine the soil contains six, eight and 15 was under the de facto control of Anglo, times that amount, according to analysis in 50 The Yazidis fall out which allegedly did not do enough to stop 2014 by Pure Earth, an environmental ngo. the harm. Anglo rejects the claims, arguing 51 A racist football team in Israel “Kabwe is the most toxic place I’ve ever that its involvement ended five decades 1 The Economist December 12th 2020 Middle East & Africa 49

2 ago and that, before then, it was neither the harder if, as remains possible, power is operator nor a majority shareholder in the Bad blood split between the executive president and mine and thus not responsible. Kabwe, Zambia, estimated mean blood lead levels an opposition-controlled parliament. The case may take years. The lawyers for By age, Jul-Sep 2017, micrograms per decilitre Mr Akufo-Addo’s win owes plenty to his the plaintiffs must first convince a South 30 government’s popular decision in 2017 to African court to take it on. Only then may it CHILDREN make senior high school education free. proceed to a trial. Meanwhile children in 25 Voters also backed his handling of covid-19, Kabwe will keep on playing in the dust. 20 which included generous handouts. Pre- There have been attempts to make Kab- 95% confidence level election surveys showed he was trusted for 15 we less dangerous. The first concerted ef- his management of the economy. forts came in the 1990s, when Zambia’s 10 Set against this, though, is the view state-owned mining company conducted ↑ Elevated levels* 5 among many voters that his government blood testing and provided some topsoil to has failed at reducing corruption, says Em- cover toxic yards. But these efforts were 0 manuel Gyimah-Boadi of Afrobarometer, a woefully inadequate; according to Mr 0-5 18-23 510151830- 50- 70+ pan-African research group. Shortly before Months Years 39 59 Fuller of Pure Earth, the government also Age the election the independent special pros- claimed that sick residents had malaria *Centres for Disease Control and Prevention benchmark ecutor for corruption, Martin Amidu, re- and prescribed milk to children. Source: “Assessing the population-wide exposure to lead signed citing political interference. Voters, pollution in Kabwe, Zambia”, by D. Yamada et al., Sep 2020 After cajoling from Mr Fuller, the World especially in the capital, Accra, were unim- Bank included Kabwe in a broader project it pressed, swinging their support from the funded to clean up Zambian mines. (To get whose grandfather, a former miner, president to his opponent. The swing Zambian officials on board, the Bank’s rep- drummed into her the dangers of lead. “I’m might have been wider still, had Mr Ma- resentative had them watch “Erin Brockov- worried about their iqs,” she says. hama not been tainted by corruption scan- ich”, a film in which Julia Roberts plays a In his front yard Mr Tembo introduces dals from his time in office. lawyer representing victims of pollution.) his son, Richard. “All these years I’ve been Voters seemingly punished ruling- The scheme, which ran from 2003-11, had affected,” says the 20-year-old. He strug- party mps by voting against them while still some successes. It dredged a toxic canal gles to focus on his college work and suf- supporting the president’s bid. This was and buried some contaminated soil. But it fers from memory loss. He worries about because they are seen as having failed to did not treat the main source of the dust— his younger nieces and their difficulties at build things like roads or clinics in their the former mine and dumps—and it left school. Given all this, hasn’t his father con- constituencies, says Bright Simons of roads unpaved and most houses untreated. sidered leaving Kabwe? He doesn’t have the Imani, a local think-tank. In about 20 con- Cornelius Katiti, a local councillor at the money, says Mr Tembo. “This is our home. stituencies the opposition’s parliamentary time, reckons that just 10% of houses had We’ve nowhere else to go.” 7 candidate won office, even as their leader topsoil replaced. An independent evalua- lost the presidential vote. tion of the project commissioned by the “Skirt-and-blouse” voting, as such World Bank found various shortcomings. Ghana’s election splits are called in Ghana, suggests that Another clean-up funded by the bank voters are discerning in their exercise of was started in December 2016. But it, too, is Skirt and blouse democratic power. This may be because of struggling. Some children have been tested experience: Ghana has held elections since and have received therapy to reduce blood 1992, with power regularly changing hands. lead levels. But since little has been done That has made it a beacon in the region. about the lead in the environment there is a Yet Ghana’s democracy is not without risk their levels will rise again. “If this were DAKAR troubles. More than 62,000 soldiers and The president wins another term, but in London, Johannesburg or a rich suburb police officers were deployed. Even so, five his party takes a hit of Lusaka it would not happen like this,” people were killed on election day and the says Juliane Kippenberg of Human Rights fter a prayer, the electoral commis- day after. Political violence has been rising Watch, an international ngo. Asion announced that Ghana’s presi- since 2012 and the number of Ghanaians At the project office in Kabwe officials dent, Nana Akufo-Addo, had won another who say they fear becoming victims of it in- refuse to talk to your correspondent. When four years in office in national elections creased by eight percentage points to 43% asked if nothing has been done to remedi- held on December 7th. His supporters between 2014 and 2018. ate the area, one worker replies: “It de- cheered in the streets. But his victory is far Elections also usually add to the coun- pends on your definition of nothing.” Later, from comprehensive. try’s economic woes. Those in power in in the capital, Lusaka, the director of the Mr Akufo-Addo’s margin shrank and his Ghana almost always splurge heavily in the project, Gideon Ndalama, concedes that it party suffered heavy losses in the parlia- year before voters get to make their choice. has had a “slow start”, arguing that there is ment. About 30 seats were flipped, leaving This is often followed by an imf bail-out; not enough money to do a full job. the house split almost evenly between the Ghana finished its 16th in 2019. Perhaps try- More than 25 years after the mine two major parties. (As The Economist went ing to tie itself to the mast, the New Patriot- closed, its huge waste dump—known as to a press a handful were still in the bal- ic Party (npp) government introduced a Black Mountain—looms. Artisanal miners ance.) The main opposition candidate and rule in 2018 limiting budget deficits to 5% cart away maize sacks filled with rocks. former president, John Mahama, was yet to of gdp. But the imf forecasts a deficit of In the absence of a clear plan that will concede. His party rejected the result, al- 16.4% for 2020, the highest in sub-Saharan end contamination in Kabwe, residents are leging irregularities without providing evi- Africa. Covid-19 explains some of this. But trying to protect themselves as best they dence of any. Few expect it to challenge the the limit would have been exceeded any- can. Local ngos such as Environment Afri- results in the streets, even if it does take way, says Henry Telli, a Ghana-based econ- ca are educating people in schools and on them to court. Yet the moment the dust has omist for the International Growth Centre radio shows. Families pass on warnings. “I settled, Ghana will face tough economic of the London School of Economics. don’t let my younger brothers play out- choices. Its public debt, already high, is Worse, Ghana was already at high risk of side,” says Joy Mbuzi, a 19-year-old student, climbing fast. Dealing with it may be even debt distress before covid-19 hit. It spends 1 50 Middle East & Africa The Economist December 12th 2020

2 and borrows like a middle-income country, and sometimes did the opposite, escalat- drew from the Saudi-led war there. They but does not collect revenue like one, says ing its media war with the blockading have grown nervous about Mr Trump’s bel- Greg Smith of m&g, an asset manager. It states and deepening ties with Turkey. ligerent policy towards Iran, which the scrapes together tax revenue of about 14% American officials want the quartet to Saudis have encouraged. Recently they of gdp, which is low even for similar Afri- start by reopening their air space. That have split over oil: the uae is frustrated can countries. For the next few years Ghana would fix a self-defeating facet of the em- with Saudi-backed production caps im- is likely to spend half of its revenue on in- bargo. The blockading states want Qatar to posed on members of the Organisation of terest payments. There are other troubles, cut ties with Iran, yet by forcing dozens of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. too. A big new offshore oilfield, Pecan, was Qatari planes to fly new routes over Iran Diplomatic niceties will not end the dis- expected to boost growth. But this has been each day they gifted it hundreds of millions cord between the Qatari emir (pictured, in delayed amid lower oil prices. of dollars in overflight fees. Reopening the white) and the leaders of Saudi Arabia and Mr Akufo-Addo made bold promises on air space would be progress, but hardly a the uae. And for all the talk of the “broth- the campaign trail, from building more reconciliation. erly” Gulf states, the blockade has intro- than a hundred hospitals to adding railway Mr Kushner, who will be out of a job duced a level of personal animosity in the lines. If he wants parliament to pass his next month, did not offer much to acceler- region, particularly between Qataris and budgets, he may have to agree to pork-bar- ate a deal. Nor is it clear what Qatar would Emiratis. “People had a big shock that dis- rel side-deals with mps. Yet if the new gov- offer the quartet in return. Buoyed by the turbed and tortured the social fabric of our ernment cannot set a credible plan to cut world’s third-largest proven natural-gas re- region,” says a Qatari official. “To go back to spending—and stick to it— it will lose cred- serves, its economy grew in 2017 and 2018 normal, I think we need two or three gener- ibility with lenders. And that, says Mr Telli, despite the embargo. It feels no pressure to ations.” Even if Qataris can soon fly over could see the imf back again. 7 make big concessions. A small one would Dubai, they may not be eager to land. 7 be to quieten Al Jazeera, where the tone of the Arabic-language channel is often a bell- The boycott of Qatar wether for relations between Qatar and its The Yazidis neighbours. Beyond that, Qatar may offer Bridging the Gulf the promise of a less antagonistic relation- Divided, oppressed ship. In other words, not much. That might still appease Saudi Arabia. and abandoned The blockade has upset America, a close partner of both Qatar and the quartet. Steps DUBAI to end the dispute would curry favour with The Gulf states are trying to make nice, Five years after escaping Islamic State, the incoming Biden administration. Some but a real end to their dispute is far off the Yazidis are still struggling of Saudi Arabia’s partners are less concilia- onths after four Arab states im- tory, though. Qatar remains a bugbear for ike a picture of purity in white robes, Mposed an embargo on Qatar in 2017, a Egypt because of its support for the Muslim Lwhite shoes and a white turban, Ali Ili- minister from the emirate made what he Brotherhood. Less enthusiastic still is the yas emerged from a candle-lit sanctum. He thought was a controversial comparison. uae, whose hostility towards political Is- had just been inaugurated as the new Baba “To be honest, we consider ourselves like lam puts it implacably at odds with Qatar. It Sheikh, or spiritual leader of the Yazidis, on Israel,” he said, referring to another small has responded tepidly to the diplomacy. November 18th. Believers gathered at Lal- country isolated in the region. Improbably, Reconciliation between Saudi Arabia ish, a temple in Iraqi Kurdistan, banging almost three years later, this comparison and Qatar would add to a growing list of drums and tootling flutes to celebrate. seems too favourable to Qatar. Thousands disagreements between Saudi Arabia and But behind the scenes an unholy row is of Israelis are visiting Dubai for the first the uae. The Emiratis pulled out most of blazing between Yazidi leaders. The Asay- time this December, while Qataris are no- their troops from Yemen in 2019 and with- ish, or Kurdish police, had to intervene where to be found. Israel will soon have after scuffles broke out at a gathering to an- ambassadors to two of the six members of nounce the new leader. Many Yazidi elders the Gulf Co-operation Council (gcc), the boycotted the temple ceremony. For the same number as Qatar—a gcc member. first time in its history, the esoteric Yazidi The feud in the Gulf has long seemed in- religion faces a schism. tractable. But for the umpteenth time for- Six years ago Western armies saved the eign officials are trying to resolve it. Jared Yazidis from Islamic State (is). The jihad- Kushner, Donald Trump’s son-in-law and ists killed 5,000 of their men and enslaved adviser (pictured, in blue mask), recently 5,000-7,000 of their women, mostly to visited Saudi Arabia and Qatar to push for a rape. The genocide caused many Yazidis, deal. The Saudi foreign minister later said who number perhaps 1m, to flee abroad. In- one was “within reach”. Qatari officials side Iraq new pressures are tearing the made encouraging noises too. Yet even if group apart. they promise to bury the hatchet, real re- Some Yazidis see themselves as part of conciliation will remain out of reach. the larger Kurdish community and have In 2017 the “Arab quartet” behind the aligned themselves with the Kurdistan blockade—Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia Democratic Party (kdp), which rules Kurd- and the United Arab Emirates (uae)— istan. But others blame the kdp for not served Qatar a list of 13 demands, among stopping is. They objected when Mir Ha- them closing Al Jazeera, the satellite broad- zim Tahsin Beg, a former kdp parliament- caster; cutting ties with Islamist groups arian, was chosen as head of the Yazidis’ such as the Muslim Brotherhood; and shut- spiritual council last year, believing he ting a Turkish military base in Doha, Qa- does the party’s bidding. Nevertheless, it tar’s capital. Qatar acceded to none of them The masked mediator was Mir Hazim who chose the Baba Sheikh.1 The Economist December 12th 2020 Middle East & Africa 51

Football Tigris TURKEY Yazidi homeland The most racist club in Israel...

Mount Lalish 100 km Sinjar Sinjar Erbil SYRIA Sinjar ddistritrict Iraqi

E Kurdistan u p JERUSALEM h ra Sparsely IRAQ t ...gets an Arab owner es populated IRAN atch day at Teddy stadium, home of the rest. Moshe Hogeg, who bought the Areas of control, Dec 7th 2020 MBeitar Jerusalem, can get pretty nasty. club in 2018 and remains a co-owner, Government Kurds Turkish Supporters of the football club proudly pressed fans to change their racist lyrics. Sources: Janes Conflict Monitor; troops Baghdad sing about how it is “the most racist team” Most seem elated with Sheikh Hamad’s Middle East Institute in Israel. They scream epithets, such as promise to invest $100m over the next de- “terrorist”, at the Arabs who play for oppos- cade in the club, which hasn’t won the 2 Many of the disgruntled Yazidis hail ing squads. Though Arabs make up 21% of league since 2008. from Sinjar, home to a mountain the Yazi- Israel’s population, Beitar Jerusalem has It helps that Israel’s warmer ties with dis consider holy (see map). Shia militias, never itself fielded one, in keeping with the Arab world are seen as the personal the Iraqi army and the Kurdistan Workers’ fans’ claim to be “forever pure”. After the achievement of Binyamin Netanyahu, the Party (pkk), which fights for Kurdish self- club signed two Muslim players from prime minister and leader of the Likud rule inside Turkey, hold sway in the area— Chechnya in 2013, a group of fans burned party. Beitar Jerusalem was founded in 1936 not the kdp. A number of Yazidis went to down its offices. When one of the Che- by the youth wing of the Zionist-Revision- Baghdad in October to meet the prime min- chens scored his first goal, many Beitar ist movement, from which Likud de- ister and to protest against Mir Hazim. “He supporters walked out of the stadium. The scends. The club remains a bastion of rules like a dictator,” says one of them. El- players soon moved on. working-class Mizrahi Jews, who emigrat- ders within this faction are trying to set up But on December 7th the Holy Land re- ed to Israel from Arab lands. Encouraged by a more representative authority. ceived proof that God has a sense of irony, Mr Netanyahu, they tend to resent the old Many Muslims consider Yazidis to be as Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Nahyan Ashkenazi elite that calls for compromise devil-worshippers. The peacock etched on purchased a 50% stake in Beitar Jerusalem. with the Palestinians. Likud bigwigs can their buildings represents Lucifer, the an- Sheikh Hamad is an Arab Muslim. He is often be seen glad-handing at Teddy stadi- gel cast from heaven—though in the Yazidi also a cousin of Muhammad bin Zayed, the um. Mr Netanyahu himself claims to be a telling he is Malik Taous and has been re- crown prince and de facto ruler of the Un- lifelong supporter of Beitar Jerusalem. stored to grace. In the summer Turkey, the ited Arab Emirates (uae), which formally That is perhaps one reason for Sheikh region’s most powerful Sunni state, normalised diplomatic and other relations Hamad’s purchase: it is an investment by bombed Sinjar, claiming the Yazidis had with Israel in September. the ruling family of Abu Dhabi in Israel’s teamed up with the pkk, which Turkey Some of Beitar Jerusalem’s fans have ruling party and its supporters. Mr Hogeg, a considers a terrorist group. In the Turkish- protested against the deal, spray-painting Jew of Moroccan and Tunisian descent, held province of Afrin in Syria, militants on the stadium’s walls that “the war has hopes it will also lead to more change. have driven Yazidis from their homes and just begun”. But their collective attitude Eventually he would like to field Arab play- defaced their shrines. had already been changing. A documentary ers. For now, though, he is relying on Jew- About 40% of Yazidis are thought to called “Forever Pure”, released in 2016, ish help. Before signing the deal he ob- have fled to the West. Isolated and cut off shone a spotlight on the club’s more despi- tained the blessing of an Israeli ultra- from their homeland, many lose their reli- cable supporters and caused shame among Orthodox rabbi. 7 gion. Yazidi elders oppose writing oral tra- ditions down or putting them online. Meanwhile, they rigidly uphold a ban on marrying out. Some children born of Yazidi women raped by is members are put out of the flock. Other strictures—such as the insistence on marrying inside the Yazidis’ caste system—are impractical among tiny communities abroad. Falling short, many give up altogether. It is common to see Ya- zidis abroad wearing blue clothes, which is taboo back home. A little bit of liberalism could solve a lot of these problems. The opponents of Mir Hazim might be satisfied if he accepted a broader and more consultative council. Ya- zidi elders could ease up on those rules that are all but impossible to follow—and they could start writing things down. Many Ya- zidis want other countries to help rebuild Sinjar and guarantee their protection. But they are not holding their breath. They cite 74 massacres in their history—and expect to keep counting. 7 For Beitar or worse? 52 Europe The Economist December 12th 2020

Covid vaccines the ema will make the call on a second vaccine, by the American firm Moderna. Other Coming soon covid-19 vaccines that are still in clinical trials will follow. By the look of things, at some point in 2021 most European countries may be using three or more covid-19 vaccines simultaneously. BERLIN A mix of vaccines will be needed. Global Europe prepares to receive its first batches of the covid-19 vaccine. supplies of any one of them will be crimped But supplies and uptake are both uncertain for months. Sharp elbowing for vaccines n a typical year the Velodrom, an indoor Italy plans to set up 300 covid-19 vaccina- during the 2009 h1n1 (swine flu) pandemic Iarena in Berlin that can hold 12,000 peo- tion sites, starting in hospitals, along with left some European countries unable to ple, hosts sports events, trade shows and mobile units. The laggards are in eastern procure any. Wary of that, the European concerts. This year, the biggest gig it is pre- Europe, where some countries have done Commission, the eu’s executive branch, paring for is a mass vaccination drive. If all little more than set up task forces. earlier this year organised joint pre-pur- goes to plan, in early January people will The starting shot for vaccination in the chase agreements on behalf of all 27 mem- start streaming through its 75 booths that European Union will be fired on December ber states with the developers of several are being set up for dishing out doses of 29th, when the European Medicines Agen- prospective covid-19 vaccines (see chart Germany’s first supplies of covid-19 vac- cy (ema), the eu’s drug regulator, is expect- overleaf). These firms received hundreds cines. Two of Berlin’s disused airports and ed to decide on a covid-19 vaccine created of millions of euros to set up production fa- other venues are also being turned into by Pfizer and BioNTech, which has already cilities, even before their vaccines are ap- vaccination centres. The plan is to be ready been approved in Britain. On January 12th proved. In return, they are reserving large to vaccinate 20,000 Berliners a day over six amounts of their first vials for the eu at a weeks. This would account for 10% of the set price. Approved vaccines will be distri- city’s residents, mainly the very old. Also in this section buted by the manufacturers to every eu Germany is rushing to set up more than country in proportion to its population, as 53 Germany, booze and covid-19 430 mass vaccination sites like these. It is batches become available. also organising roaming vaccination 54 France and Islamism At the moment, the eu has been prom- teams for care homes. In spring, vaccines ised up to 300m doses of Pfizer’s vaccine 54 The Brothers of Italy on a roll will become available at doctors’ offices. and 160m doses of Moderna’s. Both require Mobile teams will visit the infirm at home. 55 Romania’s worrying election two shots per course, so this should be Other European countries are preparing enough to cover 60% of all the eu’s adults. 56 Charlemagne: Republic of cranks too, though most are far behind Germany. The snag is that not much of it will be ready 1 The Economist December 12th 2020 Europe 53

2 before spring, even if there are no produc- be too few. Surveys asking Europeans Germany and covid-19 tion hitches, which is hardly guaranteed whether they would be willing to get a co- given that the vaccines are new and provid-19 jab are returning dispiriting results duction chains span several countries. In (see chart 2 and Charlemagne). Ipsos mori, In vino, virus early 2021 Italy, a country of 60m, expects a pollster, found that in some countries the to get enough of the two vaccines for only share of people who say yes actually fell be- BERLIN The joys and perils of Glühwein gatherings 4.7m people. By some estimates, if Ger- tween August and October. many relies on its allotment of Pfizer’s vac- An early sign to watch will be the uptake t is a chilly winter evening in a court- cine alone, it will take two years to get rate among health workers, whom most Iyard in Prenzlauer Berg, a chic district enough for 60% of its population, the esti- European countries plan to jab early on. As in Berlin. The company is convivial, a mated threshold for “herd immunity”, the things stand, many of them avoid seasonal fire pit is blazing and two cheerful level that stops the disease from spreading. flu shots and have doubts about the safety barmen are serving up endless glasses Hence the impatience of some coun- of the first covid-19 vaccines. Medics are as of steaming Glühwein, a Christmassy tries, which are looking to top up their eu prone to believing misinformation about concoction of spices, citrus, sugar and allotments. Hungary is importing a Rus- vaccines as anyone else. But Jacques de (usually bad) red wine. Under corona- sian vaccine not vetted by the ema. Ger- Haller, a former president of the Standing virus restrictions the drinks are sup- many is cutting its own deals with Pfizer Committee of European Doctors, a profes- posed to be consumed elsewhere. But and other vaccine-makers, joining a queue sional association, says that some doctors here, and across Germany’s cities, that that already includes America, Britain, Ja- avoid flu shots out of sheer arrogance, be- rule is honoured mainly in the breach. pan and a global consortium buying co- lieving they are impervious to the disease. Warmly wrapped (but often unmasked) vid-19 vaccines for poorer countries. All of Based on all this, some experts fear that, customers clutching their grog gather this leaves European governments pinning without strong public-messaging cam- in small groups around tables or the hopes on the success of some of the other paigns, the uptake of vaccines in Europe, fire. And the most magical property of vaccines in the pipeline, and soon. even in countries that do well, could be as Glühwein—it becomes undrinkable Since demand will exceed supply for little as 40%. Mass public-communication once it cools—ensures a steady stream some time, governments are stepping in to campaigns are already being planned. One of refills. decide who will get priority. The answer va- idea floated in Germany is the slogan German bars and restaurants have ries by country. Bulgaria, for example, “Sleeves up”, with photos of people cheer- been closed to seated custom since plans to start with medical workers be- fully getting the jab, possibly with a single November 2nd. Setting up impromptu cause its hospitals are bursting with co- central phone number that people can call Glühwein stands is one way for their vid-19 patients, and infections among doc- for an appointment. owners to replace a bit of lost income, tors and nurses are rampant. But a lot more than posters and slogans especially as Germany’s beloved Christ- Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands, will be needed. In France, where people are mas markets, where visitors usually by contrast, have weighed up the benefits among the most suspicious in Europe quaff gallons of the stuff, have also of vaccinating various groups and decided about any vaccine, millions have watched been cancelled this year. There are to start with the elderly. German experts “Hold-Up”, a slick two-hour online docu- drive-in Glühwein stands in Bavaria and considered three scenarios: vaccinating mentary packed with conspiracy fiction Glühwein taxis in Lower Saxony. Some those with pre-existing health conditions, about covid-19 vaccines. It is just accurate outlets have organised “Glühwein hap- the over-60s and people over 80. Their sta- enough to confuse viewers. As pallets of penings” (although police had to break tistical models suggest that if only 500,000 vaccine begin to arrive in European cities, a up one in Heidelberg that attracted 200 people a week can be vaccinated, over a 12- big question remains unanswered. Will people). And with most other forms of week period the greatest reduction in people correctly see it as the best way to public drinking off-limits, this most deaths and hospitalisations will occur if all protect grandma, curb the pandemic and traditional of libations has even ac- of them are over 80. The total years of life bring life back to normal? Or will they see it quired a mild hipster edge. gained by vaccinating this group was also as a risky drug peddled by untrustworthy Unsurprisingly, all this jollity has estimated to be the largest. governments and corporations, and decide caught the attention of the authorities. By April or May, Europe’s vaccination not to roll up their sleeves? If too many Several cities and states have already woes may swing the other way: vials of vac- make the wrong or selfish choice, 2021 will banned open-air alcohol sales, and cine may be more plentiful but takers may be another annus horribilis. 7 more seem certain to follow. “I know how much love has gone into setting up the Glühwein stands,” said Angela Hopes and fears Merkel, the chancellor, in an emotional speech to the Bundestag on December 9th. “But this is not compatible with the Vaccine doses ordered % of EU “If a vaccine for covid-19 were available, by the EU, m population over I would get it”, % agreeing in online surveys, 2020 agreement we have made to take food 16 covered* away to eat at home.” Confirmed Potential August† October‡ 4003002001000 In Germany, unlike in all other large 1009080706050 European countries, the covid-19 case- CureVac 54 Spain load is growing. Every day a fresh re- AstraZeneca/ 53 Oxford University Belgium cord number of deaths is recorded. Mrs Johnson & Johnson 107 Germany Merkel has endorsed an expert panel’s Italy recommendation for a tougher lock- Sanofi-GSK 40 down, including extended school France Pfizer/BioNTech 40 holidays and business and shop clo- Hungary sures. The experts offered no specific 21 Moderna Poland views on Glühwein stands. But poli- Sources: European Commission; *Assuming two doses per person except for Johnson & Johnson, which will only require ticians are surely mulling it over. Eurostat; Ipsos MORI one dose. Includes potential †Jul 24th-Aug 7th ‡Oct 8th-13th, not all countries surveyed 54 Europe The Economist December 12th 2020

France and Islamism to religious practice that laïcité is supposed to guarantee. Some also accuse the govern- The republic ment of mistaking conservative religiosity for sinister intent, and of ignoring the strikes back structural racism behind the development of French ghettos. Mr Macron has indeed so far put less emphasis on his promise to PARIS fight racial discrimination than on the war A controversial new bill is set to against Islamism. In parts of the Muslim combat Islamism world, he is accused of being not just anti- early two months after the beheading Islamism, but against the religion itself. Nof Samuel Paty, a schoolteacher who In France, though, there is broad sup- had shown pupils caricatures of the Pro- port for Mr Macron’s measures, both on the phet Muhammad, the French government mainstream left (most of which is firmly has unveiled a bill to clamp down on radi- laïc) and the right—although the far right’s cal Islamism. This, at least, is the implicit Marine Le Pen considers them too tame. aim of a draft law presented on December Some Muslim leaders have also backed 9th. President Emmanuel Macron had them. Mohammed Moussaoui, head of the promised a bill to combat “Islamist sepa- French Council of the Muslim Faith, said ratism”. But, to pre-empt charges of stig- that the overall aim “reassures French matising Islam, the final version has been Muslims”, since extremists are such a reframed as a text “to reinforce the princi- “marginal minority”. A recent poll showed ples of the republic”. Defending liberty that 79% of the French agree that “Islam- The bill, declared Jean Castex, the prime ism is at war with France”; 72% of Socialist minister, is “not a text against religion, nor formation that locates or identifies indi- voters agreed, and 90% on the centre-right. against the Muslim religion”. Rather, he viduals in a way that puts them in danger, With less than 18 months before the next said, it is “a law of emancipation against re- with stiffer penalties for identifying those presidential election, Mr Macron’s tough ligious fundamentalism”, designed to rein- in positions of public authority. This mea- line on Islamism may be criticised abroad, force such principles as laïcité (secularism) sure is a direct response to the murder of but is likely to prove popular at home. 7 and gender equality. It was presented on Paty, whose assassin identified him on so- the 115th anniversary of the adoption of a cial media before travelling to the school law that separated religion and the state, where he taught. Italy and first enshrined laïcité. This strict The government argues that it needs French version of secularism protects the stronger powers in order to break up Unchained Meloni right both to believe and not to believe, as “counter-societies”. Associations under well as requiring religious neutrality in radical Islamist influence, it says, have in- public life. creasingly created parallel societies, run- The new provisions, which will go ning services from crèches to sports activ- through parliament in early 2021, include ities, and are waging a war for the minds of tight curbs on home-schooling (though the young. Since 2017 intelligence services, ROME The Brothers of Italy are on a roll not a ban, as originally promised). Parents magistrates and the state have worked in 15 will need to apply for permission if they such neighbourhoods to “destabilise” net- he scandals that demolished Italy’s wish to teach their children at home, and to works, closing 15 places of worship and Tpost-war political order in the early justify it. The aim is to limit the use of four schools. Such “enclaves”, argues Gilles 1990s brought a new generation into public home-schooling as a way to escape state Kepel, author of a forthcoming book on the life. Among them was Giorgia Meloni, who oversight of radical Koranic teaching. Offi- Middle East and jihadism, became a way at the age of 15 chose to join the youth cials say they have uncovered such classes for global jihadists to recruit fighters, pro- branch of the Italian Social Movement in some neighbourhoods. voke Islamophobia and divide Western (msi), the direct heirs of the Fascist Party The bill will also make it easier for the societies. Between 2012 and 2018 over and its leader, Benito Mussolini, who ruled government to inspect and shut places of 2,000 French citizens left to take part in ji- Italy as a dictator until 1943. worship or associations that get public had in Syria, and more than 250 people Today Ms Meloni is riding high as a subsidies, if they do not respect “republi- were killed in terrorist attacks in France. leader herself. Her party, the Brothers of It- can principles”, such as women’s equality. Since his election Mr Macron has come aly (fdi), has been the outstanding benefi- A ban on state employees displaying “con- to believe that tougher rules are needed to ciary of the covid-19 pandemic. Since late spicuous” religious symbols, such as the defend French society from such influ- February, when it was already on a roll, the hijab or crucifix, will be extended from the ences. Indeed, Eric Dupond-Moretti, the party has climbed steadily in the opinion state administration to any form of sub- justice minister, described the bill as a polls from around 12% to more than 16%. It contracted public service, such as job cen- “great law of liberty”. In 2004, when France has overtaken the anti-establishment Five tres (although, with the existing exception banned “conspicuous” religious symbols Star Movement, notionally the senior of schools, there is no such ban on those from state schools, recalls Patrick Weil, a partner in Giuseppe Conte’s governing co- using public services, including universi- French historian, the commission of in- alition. The fdi is “becoming firmly estab- ties). Those who threaten officials with vio- quiry that preceded the law concluded that lished as Italy’s third party”, says Antonio lence to secure concessions on religious it was necessary to protect girls from fun- Noto of Noto Sondaggi, a polling firm. Nor grounds will face criminal penalties. damentalist pressure to wear the hijab. is it unthinkable that it may soon become Finally, doctors will be forbidden to is- Not everybody, however, sees it this the second. Some recent soundings have sue “virginity certificates” in order to pro- way. Critics say that the bill hands too put Ms Meloni’s party just four points be- tect women from pre-nuptial pressure. It much power to the state to overrule local hind the centre-left Democratic Party, also will also be illegal to divulge or publish in- authorities, and that it infringes the right in the government. Mr Conte’s coalition 1 The Economist December 12th 2020 Europe 55

2 looks increasingly fragile. It is split by a Romania’s election row over divvying out money from the eu’s covid-19 recovery fund. Were it to fall, an Diluting the cleanser election might produce a hard-right coalition government consisting of the fdi and Matteo Salvini’s Northern League, which still leads in the opinion polls, with around 24%. The rise in the Brothers’ popularity has BUCHAREST Romania’s next government will have a weak mandate for fighting corruption almost exactly matched the fall in support for the League. Mr Salvini’s raucous show- orruption is the biggest political is- stint in government and lacks allies, so pnl manship has jarred with an electorate Csue across most of eastern Europe, and is likely to form a coalition with usr-plus gripped by fear of the virus and its eco- Romania is no exception. In recent years and one other party. Negotiations will nomic consequences. At the same time the streets of Bucharest, its capital, have probably be quick, says Radu Magdin, a po- even diehard nativists must question the filled with huge demonstrations against litical consultant. But any talk of a strong League’s leader’s continuing emphasis on crooked officials and their attempts to mandate is gone. Whoever takes over as the unauthorised immigration. So far this year weaken the rule of law. Yet on December pnl’s new leader will, astonishingly, be the 33,000 migrants have reached Italy, almost 6th, when it was time to vote, the city was country’s seventh prime minister since three times as many as in 2019 but a far cry eerily quiet. Just 32% of eligible voters cast 2015. from the 181,000 who arrived in 2017. a ballot in the general election, the lowest The previous election four years ago Ms Meloni has conveyed a more nu- turnout since the fall of the communist re- brought in a psd-led government that anced and sober message, typical of her gime in 1989. Some blamed covid-19, others spent much of its time trying to weaken va- canny stewardship of a movement that two lacklustre politicians and their almost rious laws in order to keep its then leader, years ago won less than 5% of the vote at non-existent campaign. It was a sadly Liviu Dragnea, out of prison: he was on trial the last general election. Brothers of Italy missed chance to elect a government with a for abuse of power. Hundreds of thousands may be a slightly odd name for a party led strong mandate to tackle graft. of Romanians took to the streets, worried by a woman, but it echoes the first line of Many had expected the election to bring lest the country follow the anti-democratic the national anthem. Under Ms Meloni the stability, after years of brief, scandal- path blazed by Hungary and Poland. Ulti- fdi has remained passionately nationalis- plagued governments. Instead it offered mately Mr Dragnea was jailed, and his psd tic and wedded to identity politics. Its mot- more uncertainty. The opposition Social was ousted in a no-confidence vote in Oc- to is “God, family and fatherland”. Top of its Democratic Party (psd), a centre-left outfit tober last year. 15-point programme is greatly increased that promises to raise welfare benefits, got Many then expected the National Liber- support for families, to boost the birth rate an unexpectedly high 29% of the vote. The als to enjoy a period of strength. But the so Italy no longer needs immigrant work- ruling centre-right National Liberal Party pandemic cost them support. The govern- ers. It is fiercely against giving automatic (pnl) got only 25% and usr-plus, an al- ment imposed a strict lockdown that none- citizenship to children born in Italy of im- liance of anti-corruption parties, won theless failed to contain the virus. Roma- migrant parents, and would impose a naval 15%—both scoring well below what poll- nia’s health system, crippled by the blockade to stop further arrivals. sters had bet on. “There is no clear winner,” emigration of staff to higher-paying jobs in The fdi originated in 2012 as a splinter said Klaus Iohannis, Romania’s president. western Europe, has struggled to cope. On group, made up of lawmakers from the To be sure, there was a clear loser. The November 14th a fire at a hospital in the city right of Silvio Berlusconi’s catch-all con- National Liberals’ Ludovic Orban, the of Piatra Neamt killed 15 covid-19 patients. servative alliance, the People of Freedom. It prime minister, quickly resigned. But his The anti-corruption activists of usr- particularly objected to the tv mogul’s party looks set to stay in power. Though the plus had high hopes after recent local suc- high-handed leadership and his tolerance psd won, it remains discredited by a recent cesses. In September the candidate they of eu-imposed austerity. The Brothers’ pro- backed defeated a psd mayor of Bucharest gramme calls for a “rediscussion” of all the who was often accused of cronyism. But eu’s treaties, including those underpin- they ran a poor campaign for parliament, ning the euro. and hopes that their voters would be But since taking over the leadership in unusually dedicated were dashed. The psd 2014, Ms Meloni, unlike Mr Salvini, has has an advantage when turnout is low, says played down her party’s Euroscepticism. In Veronica Anghel, a political scientist: its other areas, too, she has striven to give her party machine of local officials can still get party a more moderate image. That got a out the vote. boost in September when she was elected The biggest surprise was the Alliance head of the pan-continental European for Romanian Unity (aur), a new ultra- Conservatives and Reformists Party. nationalist party. No one expected it to Though it includes the likes of Vox in Spain clear the 5% threshold to get into parlia- and Poland’s Law and Justice party, it also ment. It took 9%. Its platform mixes reli- includes Britain’s Conservatives, allowing gious patriotism with a call to annex neigh- the fdi to project itself as no longer belong- bouring Moldova and “a hodgepodge of ing to the extreme right. conspiracy theories”, says Cristian Norocel Perhaps the most telling similarity be- of Lund University, an expert on Europe’s tween Italy’s two hard-right parties is that far right. Many in the party were involved each is geographically challenged. The in a failed referendum in 2018 to outlaw gay fdi’s support comes mostly from the south marriage. For those hoping Romania and centre, just as the League’s base is would focus on fighting corruption and largely confined to the north. Together they embedding European values, the election could make a formidable combination. 7 The people’s confusing verdict result was not auspicious. 7 56 Europe The Economist December 12th 2020 Charlemagne Republic of cranks

Why is Europe so riddled with vaccine scepticism? rent-Henri Vignaud, a historian of science at the University of Bourgogne. Now it is political. There is a correlation between doubting vaccines and voting for populist parties, points out Jona- than Kennedy of Queen Mary University of London. Both movements are about fear. Just as populist leaders of the left and the right stoke suspicion of Davos Man, so anti-vaxxers fret about another shadowy global elite—Big Pharma. Both populists and anti- vaxxers share an ability to turn a kernel of truth into a wider decep- tion. Immigration has changed Europe, but that does not mean it caused all the continent’s problems, as populists suggest. In the same way, the opioid epidemic in America raises questions about the ethics of some drug firms, but that does not mean they want to put a chip in your brain. The same reflex lies at the heart of both: a distrust of experts and institutions. Europe is, increasingly, a para- noid continent, where people’s minds are filled with visions of en- emies, mostly illusory. Vaccines join immigrants, Muslims and a host of others as the bogeyman du jour. Politicians feel they must tread carefully. The British regulator’s speedy approval came in the knowledge that eight in ten Brits were keen on the vaccine even before a public-health campaign showed happy pensioners being jabbed. Swiss regulators have taken a more cautious approach, in a bid to allay the concerns of vac- hen pfizer and BioNTech unveiled their covid-19 vaccine, cine doubters. Jens Spahn, the German health minister, declared: Wpoliticians from across Europe bustled to claim a slice of “Nothing is more important than confidence with respect to vac- credit. German politicians reminded people that BioNTech was cines.” It is, however, possible to be too cautious. Those who know founded by two Germans of Turkish origin. Belgian ones were France best suggest that people will be queuing up for the vaccine quick to note that the vaccine is manufactured in Belgium. eu offi- when it arrives. It is one thing to spurn a vaccine while Emmanuel cials hailed the way in which 27 countries had clubbed together to Macron is extolling its virtues. It is quite another to reject one sug- buy up enough stocks. Britain had to content itself with boasting gested by a family doctor. Actions do not always match words, par- that its regulators were the quickest to approve the drug. ticularly in France, where citizens often tick the most pessimistic Yet for a surprisingly large number of Europeans, a different box possible in surveys about the government. Long-held French emotion came before pride: paranoia. Despite scrupulous tests doubts about vaccination do not manifest themselves in signifi- showing that the vaccine is safe, many people doubt it. One in cantly lower take-up. three French people thinks vaccines in general are unsafe—the Likewise, anti-vax sentiment can flame out. While in opposi- highest figure for any country, according to the Wellcome Trust, a tion, the Five Star Movement, which is part of Italy’s governing co- British charity. A whopping 46% say they would reject a covid-19 alition, happily stirred up fear of vaccines. Mandatory vaccines vaccine when offered it, according to an Ipsos mori poll. And were “a gift for Big Pharma”, said Beppe Grillo, the former comedi- France is not alone. In Italy, the eu’s third-largest economy, the an who co-founded the party. In government, however, conspiracy Five Star Movement won power in part due to their avid fearmong- theories collided with reality: a measles outbreak triggered the in- ering about vaccines. Nor is such dangerous poppycock confined troduction of strict measures the party had once opposed. Populist to western Europe. More than 40% of people in Poland and Hunga- campaigning does not translate well to the actual problems of gov- ry say they would reject a covid-19 vaccine if offered. How did Eu- ernment. In a peculiar twist, Five Star supporters are now more rope become such a crucible of credulity? likely to support the idea of a covid-19 vaccine than the average Ital- Vaccine doubters have been around for as long as vaccination ian. European countries have grown unused to large-scale prema- itself. An 18th-century French cartoon features two wicked charac- ture death. The horror of the pandemic, and the prospect of stop- ters chasing children with a syringe, dragging a green, smallpox- ping it, may shock them back to their senses. ridden monster behind them. Voltaire despaired at his country- men’s misguided reluctance to try the rudimentary inoculations Vax populi then becoming common in England. In the eyes of his fellow In the coming months, a lack of supply rather than a lack of de- Frenchmen, the English were “fools…and madmen”, he wrote. Yet mand is a bigger problem for governments organising vaccina- even so, riots in 19th-century England kicked off when the govern- tions, says Jonathan Berman, author of “Anti-vaxxers: How to ment made vaccines mandatory. People on Facebook today who Challenge a Misinformed Movement”. Indeed, talking too much swap hare-brained theories about Bill Gates wanting to insert about vaccine refusal could provoke the very panic governments tracking chips into everyone are the heirs to 19th-century pam- want to avoid. phleteers who suggested people would grow horns if they took a Fringe views are more likely to spread when people lose trust in vaccine. Europe has always been a republic of letters. Unfortunate- their leaders. So the most effective (figurative) vaccine against ly it is also sometimes a republic of cranks. anti-vax nonsense would be for governments to roll out their actu- What has changed is the motivation. In the 18th and 19th cen- al covid-19 vaccination programmes as quickly and smoothly as tury objections were often religious, with illness ascribed to God’s possible, with a minimum of cock-ups. When elites do their jobs will, or concern at the idea of interfering with nature, argues Lau- well, populists and cranks have less to froth about. 7 Britain The Economist December 12th 2020 57

Also in this section 58 Big Tech regulation 58 Toppling statues 59 BLM and public schools — Bagehot is away

Brexit lengthy dossiers detailing how their products were made, and appoint an agent on Fade to grey European soil, who can be collared if things go wrong. The system is overseen by the European Chemicals Agency (echa) in Helsinki, which has 600 staff and a budget of more than €100m ($120m). The enforcement is done by a network of national SHERBURN IN ELMET agencies, such as Britain’s Health and Safe- What the chemicals industry reveals about leaving the European Union ty Executive (hse), based in Liverpool. The ndrew clarke closely guards his reci- dustry is Brexit in microcosm. Boris John- result is a free-flowing pool of 23,000 Ape for yolk-coloured ink, known in the son wants a trade deal that eliminates all chemicals for Mr Clarke and his continen- trade as a yellow 13. But the process is sim- tariffs on goods, including chemicals. Yet tal rivals to choose from, underpinned by a ple enough. Powdery pigment is mixed even if he gets this, it will do little to soothe vast database of safety information which with solvent, varnish and thickener, many the headaches that arise from leaving the regulators can scour for risks. of the supplies imported from abroad, and single market. A project that promised to Theresa May, Mr Johnson’s predecessor, then milled between steel rollers into a throw off the eu’s system of regulation will asked to stay in Reach, having been con- glossy syrup. His factory in Yorkshire spe- instead replicate it in miniature, creating a vinced there was little to gain from di- cialises in bespoke orders for coatings used Brussels-on-Thames. Chemical firms, for- vergence. But this was rejected by the eu, to make food cartons, magazines and cir- eign airlines, lawyers and internet compa- who called it “cherry-picking”. So Britain cuit boards. His small laboratory is lined nies—all will face new burdens if they wish will try to replicate the regime at home, un- with pots of resins and wetting agents, and to keep doing business in Britain. der the title of “uk Reach”. The names of machines that measure the fineness and At root is a grand misunderstanding. chemicals originally registered by British viscosity of his creations. Brexiteers often think of the eu’s single companies will be copied into domestic Brexit, which comes into full effect on market as a mere rule book. Thus, they sug- law. The hse will take on the echa’s job, January 1st, worries Mr Clarke. The Euro- gest, Britain simply needs to copy those funded by fees on users. European compa- pean chemicals market is fragmenting. He rules into domestic law, and then tweak nies will need a legal footprint to trade in fears the substances that give his coatings them at leisure. But the single market is Britain, and British companies vice versa. their distinctive qualities may slowly dis- better thought of as an ecosystem: an elab- The most difficult task will be replicat- appear from sale in Britain, leaving him re- orate regime of registration, surveillance ing the echa’s database. Ministers at first liant on inferior substitutes. “If we are try- and enforcement. Goods and services per- insisted they could simply copy-and-paste ing to sell to Europe, we might be offering colate freely across national borders be- it. They could not: it is stuffed with com- our best stuff, but an eu competitor could cause governments can rely on Brussels to mercially-sensitive intellectual property, come in using the state-of-the-art raw ma- keep watch for unwanted adulterations. and there is little incentive to give a depart- terial, which in our customers’ eyes is sig- Reach, the bit of the single market going state a leg-up. The eu has so far rebuffed nificantly better,” he says. verning chemicals, is especially strict. Britain’s request for a chemicals data-shar- The future of the British chemicals in- Firms selling into Europe must submit ing clause in the trade deal. 1 58 Britain The Economist December 12th 2020

2 Instead, the government will require Mr Regulating technology tors. And it will also play an important role Clarke’s suppliers to submit the data them- in co-ordinating various British govern- selves. But many dossiers were produced Injection of ment policies, including a code of conduct by consortia of companies, and there is lit- for technology firms to prevent “online tle reason for a French firm to bail out a confidence harms”, and new rules around how social British rival. basf, a big German chemicals media and search engines interact with firm, reckons registering with uk Reach British journalism. will cost them £70m ($90m). Small British There are political considerations to all An assertive new tech watchdog for distributors whose continental suppliers this. The government now has to enshrine post-Brexit Britain file paperwork under the eu system may the dmu’s powers in law, but will want to find themselves designated “importers”. ecember 8th was a big day for jabs in ensure Britain remains an attractive place One boss calculates a bill of £1m in registra- DBritain. In Coventry, at the crack of for big tech companies after Brexit. Tighten tion fees if he has to lodge all the sub- dawn, Margaret Keenan became the first the rules too much and firms may flee to stances he imports, on an annual turnover person in the world to receive a proven co- Dublin or Amsterdam; leave them too loose of £15m: “We’d be bankrupt in a week.” vid-19 vaccine. Meanwhile, in London, the and it risks damaging relations with the George Eustice, the environment secre- Competition and Markets Authority (cma) eu. So far, Britain’s plans are broadly in step tary, now admits some firms may find the published the blueprint for a new regime of with how Europe and other countries are task “both expensive and time-consum- oversight of tech companies. Less momen- thinking about competition in the tech ing”, and this summer delayed the timeta- tous, it nonetheless provides a shot in the sector, says Damian Tambini of the London ble for lodging dossiers for some products arm to Britain’s post-Brexit regulatory rep- School of Economics, and regulators have from 2023 to 2027. But more time does not utation. “Ground-breaking” is how one worked well together. That is an encourag- help much, says Peter Newport of the competition lawyer describes it. ing start. But it is unlikely to inoculate Chemicals Business Association. “It’s a The idea of the new regime is some- against other challenges to come. 7 change from a guillotined beheading to a thing called “ex ante” regulation, which death by a thousand cuts over a six-year ti- tells big companies how they should be- mescale,” he sighs. have, rather than asking for remedies after Culture wars (1) There are two scenarios for how this they have misbehaved. The old approach will play out. One is that ministers push on works for slow-moving industries. But dig- Roads must fall with uk Reach, and substances are pulled ital ones change too quickly for retroactive from the British market as manufacturers enforcement to do much good. To fix that, a conclude that registration costs make low- new regulator, the Digital Markets Unit volume products unviable. The so-called (dmu), will write and enforce the rules for “salt-and-pepper” additives used in tiny tech. The government intends to get it up Bureaucrats will topple more statues quantities in paints are particularly vul- and running by April 2021, and has com- than crowds managed last summer nerable. The flow going the other way is al- mitted to making it a statutory body. ready shrinking. Only 70% of the British Most competition law applies to all n december 5th a small group of peo- firms that registered chemicals with the firms, or is written for specific industries. Ople carefully removed a sign marking echa before Brexit have started transfer- The dmu will take this a step further, as- Cassland Road Gardens in London and laid ring their dossiers to new legal entities in signing certain companies “strategic mar- it on the ground. Thus was one corner of Europe, the regulator notes. “We’ll become ket status”—meaning they have “en- the capital purged of its association with an very insular, and they’ll become equally trenched market power”—and tailoring a offensive historical figure—John Cass, an self-absorbed,” says Mr Clarke. As a result, bespoke code of conduct for that particular early-18th-century slave trader. It was a Britain would be a less attractive place to firm. Fines for failing to comply will reach modest event, noticed by few, which suited open an assembly line. 10% of global revenue. New rules will also the organisers. “It makes more sense to do The second scenario is that uk Reach come into place around mergers, allowing it this way,” says Toyin Agbetu, a researcher founders. The deadlines could be pushed regulators to consider how a startup might and activist. 1 back further, or the new rules left unen- develop, rather than looking only at its cur- forced. With an empty database, says Mi- rent market status. The current “ex post” chael Warhurst of chem Trust, an environ- regime means regulators sometimes have mental charity, the regulator in Liverpool to try to fix problems years after harm is al- would be less able than the one in Helsinki ready done. On December 9th America’s to spot hazards, or to defend its decisions Federal Trade Commission filed an anti- against deep-pocketed companies in court. trust lawsuit against Facebook, alleging The promise of Brexit was that Britain that it had “targeted potential competitive would be the master of its own regulation, threats to its dominance”, buying Insta- acting more nimbly or stringently than the gram in 2012 and WhatsApp in 2014. eu if it wished. But the outcome Mr War- The significance of the cma’s plan goes hurst fears would not be deregulation by beyond its effect on technology compa- design, but one forced upon ministers be- nies. The cma is “setting out its stall as a cause their ambitions to match European world leader in competition post-Brexit”, standards have failed. A big market means says Katherine Kirrage, a digital competi- Brussels can afford to be strict in its regulation and regulatory lawyer at Osborne tion. Britain will learn that it cannot. 7 Clarke, a law firm. The publication of its proposals precede by a week new rules Correction In last week’s Bagehot, we claimed that from the European Commission, which Hakluyt has close links to the secret service. The will probably be similar in spirit. The cma’s firm was established 25 years ago by former employees of MI6, but no longer has connections powers to conduct market studies and in- with the agency. Sorry. vestigations are a model for other regula- A more dignified end The Economist December 12th 2020 Britain 59

2 The other way is more spectacular. Last Culture wars (2) June a Bristol crowd inspired by the Black Lives Matter movement pulled down a stat- ue of Edward Colston, another slave trader, New school rules and rolled it into the harbour. In the same week activists in Glasgow erected alterna- Black Lives Matter has made a mark on Britain’s grandest schools tive street signs, replacing tobacco barons with black heroes. Elsewhere, statues were oseph spence is everything one might daubed with paint. Vigilante groups— Jexpect from the master of Dulwich some polite and peaceful, others not—mo- College. His doctoral thesis delved into bilised to defend cherished figures. 19th-century Irish Toryism, and his cv is To cool things down, many local au- a tour of Britain’s most illustrious thorities promised to investigate monu- schools. But he is no traditionalist. Un- ments and street names. In theory, all 130 der his leadership, Dulwich offers pupils Labour-led councils are doing so, as are unconscious bias training and a history some controlled by the Scottish National curriculum which aims “to amplify the Party. Hackney, which contains the cur- voices of the colonised as much as the rently nameless gardens formerly known coloniser”. The hope, says Dr Spence, is as Cassland Road, has a rolling process: of- to look beyond the conventional canon, fensive things are removed when a group although that “doesn’t mean it has to of councillors, historians and community disappear”, he reassures. leaders reach a consensus. But most coun- Britain’s public schools were once cils commissioned reports, which are be- proud bastions of tradition—now they ginning to come in. This quieter process is are trying to move with the times. Marl- likely to topple more statues and names borough focuses on black history, filling than the crowds did. its curriculum with “as many diverse Researchers at Lambeth Archives have texts, guests and experiences as pos- found that in that London borough four sible”. Harrow’s summer reading list street names, one ward and one tomb com- includes voguish titles like “White Fra- The next examination: privilege memorate slave owners. Another seven gility” by Robin DiAngelo. Eton faces things have some link to slavery or black criticism for sacking a teacher who made ened of censure. A recently departed oppression—for example, a memorial and a video arguing against “radical femi- Eton teacher says the Charities Commis- a block of flats are named after a 17th-cen- nism” (the school insists the problem sion, which requires schools to prove tury director of the East India Company, was the refusal to take it off YouTube). they provide a public good to enjoy tax which traded slaves at the time. Lambeth Some of this reflects the schools’ advantages, has had a significant impact Archives uses a traffic-light system: red for intakes. More than a third of pupils at on their behaviour, as has growing politi- definite links, orange for more tenuous independent schools now come from cal opposition to their charitable status. ones, green for the blameless. ethnic minorities, up from a quarter a According to the teacher: “Suddenly Some investigations have come up decade ago. Many are aware that they every leading private school had an empty-handed. An independent review of could be more welcoming. A survey by outreach officer whose job it was to say, statues in Bradford found none that is of- the African Caribbean Education Net- ‘Look how much we care, look how liber- fensive. In Leeds, investigators found only work, a group of black parents whose al and inclusive we are! Please like us! one “particularly negative” image: an ar- children attend private and grammar Please don’t beat us up!’” chitectural frieze showing an African man schools, found that 76% of their children Parents are not entirely on board. in a loincloth. Both cities are far from the have experienced racial bias. When pupils at Benenden complained in coast, and the investigators looked only at Change is pushed by pupils. Follow- October that their headmistress used a statues. Even so, the reports may affect the ing George Floyd’s death in May, many racial slur in a speech about diversity, streetscape. They conclude that the cities petitioned for diverse curriculums. At parents backed the head. Yet even some should do a better job of reflecting their Charterhouse, pupils formed the Unity sceptics may recognise the appeal. Top black, Asian and Jewish populations. Society, a safe space where they could public schools offer good grades, and the By far the most comprehensive report is discuss current affairs. Most teachers are opportunity to pick up knowledge that the one commissioned by the Welsh gov- happy to support these efforts, says Will helps you get ahead in the world. Is ernment. It finds 68 monuments, places or Orr-Ewing of Keystone Tutors: “These knowing the lingo of much of society’s streets with a definite connection to slav- schools are run by liberals, for liberals.” elite part of that nowadays? “You bet,” ery or racism, and another 213 with a looser Opponents think schools are fright- affirms one head teacher. connection. One man, Thomas Picton, who governed Trinidad with a brutality that shocked his contemporaries and was later want to be? For example, Swansea has a iconoclasm may lead to funding cuts. But killed at the battle of Waterloo, has 19 roads Grenfell Park Road. That seems to be big cities are not Tory territory; statues definitely and 13 possibly named after him. named after Pascoe St Leger Grenfell, who might become even more tempting targets He is also commemorated by a 25-metre was part-owner of a copper company that if they are associated with the government. obelisk and in the names of a sports centre, ran Cuban mines with slave labour. But a And the reports will create momentum. a community centre and two pubs. Grenfell Avenue on the other side of Swan- Gaynor Legall, who chaired the Welsh in- The local councils that will decide the sea might have been named after David vestigation, says she used to assume, na- fate of most street names and monuments Grenfell, a Labour mp. It is not clear that ively, that slavery was mostly an English must mull tricky questions. If slave traders many people appreciate the distinction. phenomenon. She hopes that her review are anathema, what about people who op- The Conservative government is will lead to a national reckoning. “We can’t posed abolition? And how finicky do they against removing statues, and hints that just drop it now,” she says. 7 60 International The Economist December 12th 2020

Trans rights treating 16- and 17-year-olds may also need to consult a judge before starting. Boys and girls Trans activists argue that a long-mar- ginalised group is now finding its voice in popular culture. Their critics retort that vulnerable teenagers are losing themselves in an online world which adulates anyone who comes out as trans. Both could be right. “Being straight is boring,” says Worries grow about the treatment of children who say they are transgender Meghan’s younger sibling. n 2018 andrea davidson’s 12-year-old ca had one gender clinic in 2007; now it has Society is struggling to strike a balance. Idaughter, Meghan, announced she was more than 50. Piecemeal evidence around Some children who feel they are in the “definitely a boy”. Ms Davidson says her the world suggests that three-quarters of wrong body will always feel that way and child was never a tomboy but the family children expressing gender dysphoria at might benefit from altering their bodies. doctor congratulated her and asked what such clinics are adolescent girls, whereas Others will change their minds—many of pronouns she had chosen, before writing a until recently it was roughly evenly split. these will simply turn out to be gay. No referral to the British Columbia Children’s An increasing number are also de-transi- medical test can tell these two groups Hospital (bcch). “We thought we were go- tioning, choosing to revert to their previ- apart. Children with mental-health pro- ing to see a psychologist, but it was a nurse ous gender. Unfortunately, if children have blems or conditions such as autism are and a social worker,” says Ms Davidson already begun a medical transition, includ- more likely to experience gender dyspho- (both her and her daughter’s names have ing hormone treatment, it can leave them ria. Untangling all this is extremely hard. been changed). “Within ten minutes they infertile and unable to have a full sex life. However, there are worries that rich had offered our child Lupron”—a puberty- Earlier this month the High Court in countries have the balance wrong. One of blocking drug. “They brought up the drug London looked at the case of one detransi- the Dutch scholars on whose work the pre- directly with our child, in front of us, with- tioner, Keira Bell, who had brought a judi- scribing of hormones and surgery is based out discussing it with us privately first.” cial review against the Tavistock clinic, has said that her research is being applied There was no mention of other mental- England’s only specialist youth gender- to young people for whom it was not de- health issues, which are known to increase identity centre. She claimed that the clinic signed. And a growing number of people the likelihood of gender dysphoria, the should not have allowed her to take puber- are dissenting. The Economist spoke to feeling that you are in the wrong body. ty blockers and later undergo testosterone more than four dozen people in rich Eng- “There was no therapy on offer and we were treatment and a double mastectomy. The lish-speaking countries, including trans just brushed aside when we raised it.” court ruled that it was “highly unlikely” people, parents, doctors, social workers, Meghan belongs to a wave of children that a 13-year-old and “doubtful” that 14- teachers and people who had identified as across the Western world who have identi- and 15-year-olds are mature enough to con- trans when they were children. Most of fied as transgender in recent years. Ameri- sent to such a procedure, and that doctors those who were critical wanted to be anon-1 The Economist December 12th 2020 International 61

2 ymous for fear of losing their jobs or being ocably trans and thus you will probably kill they turned 18, surgery. There was no con- branded bigots on Twitter. yourself if you don’t transition.” Obtaining trol group. Instead the results of a study of “The first duty of medicine is ‘Do no hormones was easy, she says. “They pretty the approach, published in 2014, conclud- harm’,” says a Canadian paediatrician. “In much gold-stamped me through.” Then, ed that these medical interventions were any other branch of medicine, if you were aged 17, her dysphoria disappeared. “I felt successful on the basis of psychological causing permanent sterility with body-al- extremely lost. I had never heard of this functioning at least one year after surgery. tering surgery and cross-sex hormones, happening.” She came off testosterone, The authors warn that their paper con- you had better have some pretty strong da- embraced her identity as a lesbian, and is tains a small sample, measures only short- ta...But we’re already going down that road furious. “It is the medical industry and the term psychological outcomes and has no with no strong data at all.” general social attitude towards dysphoric evaluation of the implications for physical To find the best approach will require people that failed me.” health. One of its researchers, Annelou de debate. Some activists do not welcome de- Such “desistance” appears to be com- Vries, this year published a commentary in bate, however. “We are liberal people,” says mon. At least half a dozen medical studies Pediatrics, a medical journal, saying that Ms Davidson. “But we are always made to show that between 61% and 98% of chil- the approach is being wrongly applied to feel like we are right-wing crackpots for dren presenting with gender-related dis- children (mostly girls) with adolescent-on- raising questions.” tress were reconciled to their natal sex be- set dysphoria. She emphasised the need to fore adulthood. However, all these studies identify those who need enhanced mental- Crossing a Rubicon looked at children with early-onset dys- health support, rather than gender reas- Nobody has global statistics for the rate of phoria. One recent study on adolescent signment. Carl Heneghan, a professor at trans cases among children. Referrals to dysphoria among girls suggested that in the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the Tavistock in London have surged 30- many cases it is brought on by the influ- Oxford University, wrote last year that use fold in a decade, with 2,700 children re- ence of the internet, by female friends who of the Dutch protocol amounts to an “un- ferred there last year. Nearly half those re- have transitioned and by the miseries of regulated live experiment on children”. ferred will start on puberty blockers. In puberty. “What is needed is quality re- The High Court in England also called such 2019-20, the bcch treated 382 patients in its search into adolescent-onset dysphoria interventions “experimental”. The flood of gender clinic, up from 123 in 2016-17. Amer- among girls, and the overlap with autism hormones in puberty help reconcile a child ica does not publish statistics. However, in and mental-health diagnoses,” says Will to their sex in a way that doctors do not a survey of American high-school students Malone, an endocrinologist and director at fully understand. Blockers stop that. in 2017 by the Centres for Disease Control the Society for Evidence-Based Gender 1.8% said they were transgender and a fur- Medicine, an international group of doc- No turning back ther 1.6% said they were unsure. tors and researchers. The Tavistock clinic argued that puberty The case for puberty blockers is that The decision to desist is hardest for blockers are reversible. That is true up to a they can help children with severe gender those who have received medical treat- point. However, they can affect bone densi- dysphoria, who feel desperate about devel- ment. Lisa Marchiano, a Jungian therapist ty and so doctors often want to move pa- oping the “wrong” sex characteristics. That in Philadelphia, counsels several such peo- tients on to cross-sex hormones, which is because the drugs could spare them dis- ple. They all believe they were given access have more permanent effects. The court tress and, potentially, traumatic interven- to medical interventions too soon. “It takes concluded that blockers almost always tions later: a double mastectomy; a hyster- enormous strength to admit you have in- lead on to hormones, which carry health ectomy or the shaving of the Adam’s apple. vested so much in a strategy that is a mis- risks. Testosterone heightens the chance of Many who go through full medical tran- take,” she says. heart problems. It leads to vaginal and uter- sition say they are happy with the result. The evidence in favour of medical treat- ine atrophy which can make a hysterecto- Tru Wilson, who lives in Vancouver, is one. ment is being challenged, too. Arguments my necessary in later life. Tru was a gentle boy, and Tru’s parents for providing hormones and surgery to Despite the uncertainties, many doc- thought their child might be gay. They then dysphoric teenagers lean heavily on an in- tors have embraced medical intervention. watched a programme together on trans tervention approach pioneered in the The standard approach used to be “watch- kids and Tru said, “That’s me!” Tru, now 17, Netherlands, which has come to be known ful waiting”, which advocates counselling began on blockers at 12, on oestrogen at 14, as “the Dutch protocol”. This was tested on before moving on to hormones and sur- and is expecting to go through surgery 55 young people with early-onset dyspho- gery. However, Joshua Safer of the Mount within the next year. “I have zero regrets on ria. The teenagers were treated with puber- Sinai Centre for Transgender Medicine and how my journey went,” she says. Her fa- ty blockers, cross-sex hormones and, after Surgery in New York says puberty blockers ther, Garfield, has been impressed by phys- are now “the conservative option” because icians at the bcch. “There was no pressure they allow children time to decide what pushing us to do anything that we didn’t Gender gap they want to do. Medical bodies including feel was right for our daughter.” Many other Britain, referrals to the Gender Identity the World Professional Association for parents also report positive experiences. Development Service at Tavistock clinic Transgender Health (wpath) now say that bcch says that they take the use of puberty By natal sex* and age affirming a person’s transgender identity is blockers seriously and all their patients “go 3,000 “international best practice”. through rigorous assessments including Adolescents† 2,500 In America intervention was boosted by confirmation that they are capable of con- the Affordable Care Act of 2010, which Female Male 2,000 sidering the benefits and risks”. Children‡ banned health insurers from discriminat- But other transitioners come to see 1,500 ing on the basis of sexual orientation and Female Male such procedures as a mistake. Claire (not 1,000 gender identity. In effect, they were thus her real name), now a 19-year-old student 500 obliged to cover hormones for people who in Florida, started on testosterone aged 14 0 say they are trans just as they provide con- because of a loathing for her body. (She was traceptive hormones for women. 2019181716151413122011 also deeply depressed.) “I felt it was the Years ending March In 2018 the American Association of Pe- only option, especially with the insistence diatrics (aap) said that all medical evidence Source: GIDS *Excluding not known †12 and over ‡Under 12 that having dysphoria meant you are irrev- supports the “affirmative” approach. But 1 62 International The Economist December 12th 2020

2 according to a detailed rebuttal by James into law. That will do a lot to combat wide- Some politicians in conservative Amer- Cantor, a Canadian sexual-behaviour sci- spread discrimination against trans peo- ican states have drawn up bills that would entist, none of the 11 academic studies of ple, such as in housing and the workplace. make it illegal for doctors to prescribe pu- the subject reaches that conclusion. But it also redefines sex to include gender berty blockers or hormones to children. Plenty of doctors fail to observe even identity. That could be read to endorse the This is largely an attempt to inflame the wpath’s guidelines. Laura Edwards- idea that children should be affirmed in the culture wars, but it also reflects the worries Leeper, a professor of psychology at Pacific identity they choose and receive treatment of some parents. University in Oregon who helped found for it—even if that identity may turn out to Ms Buffone says she raised concerns America’s first transgender clinic for chil- be temporary. with her daughter’s school and the local au- dren and teens in Boston, says she gets In Australia the capital, Canberra, and thority. “It was as though I had left Canada many emails from parents “desperate to the state of Queensland have outlawed and arrived in some kind of authoritarian find a therapist who will not just blindly af- “conversion therapy” in relation to sexual state. They said this is what we are doing firm that their child is trans”. Ideally, she orientation or gender identity. So too have and it was clear I had no recourse.” Some said, an adolescent with gender dysphoria some American states. Canada is consider- parents in Quebec, which has its own curri- would have been regularly seeing a thera- ing a similar law. This conflates two sepa- culum, are also objecting. When Catherine, pist, who encouraged them to explore oth- rate issues. Many people would say it is a consultant, asked to see the content of er possible causes for their feelings and wrong to try to convert gay people into be- her six-year-old’s sex-education class, the had a comprehensive psychological as- ing straight. But the implicit definition of school refused, so she made a freedom-of- sessment before being put on blockers or trans conversion therapy risks outlawing information request. It turned out teachers hormones. “It is very rare that even one of any counselling that helps children decide are told that “Children can begin to explore these things happens,” she says. whether their dysphoria is permanent or a their gender identity between the ages of 3 phase, and what to do about it. and 7” and that sex is “assigned” at birth Schools, the new front line A backlash is beginning. In Sweden, rather than observed. Affirmation in the clinic often echoes affir- after a 1,500% rise in gender dysphoria di- mation at school. Canada and some Austra- agnoses among 13- to 17-year-old girls in A legal minefield lian states forbid discrimination against 2008-18, more media coverage has focused The Australian Family Court has in recent anyone on the basis of their self-declared on the problems of children transitioning. years removed itself from decisions about gender identity. The main school pro- Aleksa Lundberg, an activist, said that she giving blockers and hormones and even gramme, taught in British Columbia and would probably not undergo surgery if she surgery for teenagers, unless parents dis- Alberta and due to be rolled out across Can- had the same choice today. Referrals of agree. Instead, it has recently seen the first ada, is called sogi-123. Much of the sogi children to gender clinics have fallen by case of a child being removed from parents programme is uncontroversial, about be- 65% in a year. Finland recently released who did not support transition. The ruling ing kind and opposing bullying. But critics stricter guidelines, recommending differ- was hardly reported in the press. worry it makes questioning a child’s deci- ent treatment for early-onset and adoles- Patrick Parkinson, dean of law at the sions difficult. cent-onset dysphoria, and encouraging pa- University of Queensland, says Ms Bell’s Pamela Buffone, who runs a website tients to seek counselling. judgment in England means that such par- called Canadian Gender Report, says that In America trans activists see questions ents will have a basis to oppose their such programmes attach the concept of about treatment as political. Chase Stran- daughter’s removal. He thinks doctors’ “gender identity” (the idea that a biological gio, a trans lawyer at the American Civil claims that puberty blockers are reversible male can identify as a woman, or a female Liberties Union, tweeted of the English and do no harm have been debunked. “This as a man) to the more familiar concept of court’s decision: “Please see this for what it is a massive wake-up call for the medical “sexual orientation” (being gay or straight). is—an attempt to weaponise our happi- profession in Australia,” he says. In March last year Ms Buffone launched a ness, our hopefulness, and our love of our However for many doctors in transgen- legal complaint against a school board in bodies. This is a dangerous attack on trans der clinics in America, the idea of restrict- Ottawa over a lesson, under a different pro- survival and it is spreading.” ing the use of puberty blockers in children gramme, in which she says her six-year-old is anathema. Johanna Olson-Kennedy of daughter was taught that there is no such the Centre for Transyouth Health and De- thing as boys and girls. velopment at Children’s Hospital Los An- People who support the new curricu- geles says she mourns the loss of “this in- lum say that it is important to teach trans credible tool” for English children. “I think issues in school just as it is important to there is going to be an avalanche of law- teach about race or religion. Glen Hans- suits,” says Dianna Kenny, recently retired man, a Canadian teacher who was instru- professor of psychology at the University mental in the implementation of sogi, says of Sydney. “But they won’t be in time to that affirming pronouns and names in save a generation of adolescents who have schools is “not a gateway drug to other been wrongly diagnosed as being trans.” things”. Vince, an 18-year-old trans boy in As for Ms Davidson, daughter Meghan rural Canada, (also not his real name) says still struggles with depression. However that sogi is a lifeline for many young trans she decided, with her parents, not to take people. He wishes the programme had ex- the Lupron. In May, by then 14, she an- isted in his school, where he says he was as- nounced: “Mum, I’ve decided I’m a girl.” saulted for being gender non-conforming. She put on lots of make-up and went to the Many legislators, not wanting to look shopping mall to get her nails painted. But bigoted, are supportive, too. Having seen the experience has turned her mother into how the state failed gay people, they are dean activist. She has signed up with caws- termined that it should not repeat the mis- bar, a women’s group that advocates for take with trans people. In America Joe Bi- rights to be based on biological sex. “I’m den has promised to sign the Equality Act mad as hell,” she says. 7 Business The Economist December 12th 2020 63

Also in this section 64 Facebook’s antitrust issues 65 Bartleby: Why fair play pays 66 SAP’s reset 66 India’s emigrating lawsuits 67 Unautonomous Uber 68 Schumpeter: Dirigiste? Moi?

Corporate balance-sheets plough three times as much into American startup stars as public investors do. But A year of raising furiously proceeds from listings are now growing faster than private funding rounds (see chart 2 on next page). And the boom is global in nature (see chart 3). On December 2nd jd Health, a Chinese online pharmacy, raked in $3.5bn in Hong Kong. A week later Companies have issued more debt and equity in 2020 than ever before. DoorDash, an American food-delivery dar- What now? ling, and Airbnb, a home-rental platform, n march the corporate world found it- ing a recent trend to buy back shares rather both more or less matched it in New York. Iself staring into the abyss, recalls Susie than issue new ones. In a world of near-zero interest rates, it Scher. From her perch overseeing global Initial public offerings (ipos), too, are appears, investors will bankroll just about capital markets at Goldman Sachs, a bank, flirting with all-time highs, as startups anyone with a shot at outliving covid-19. she witnessed firms scrambling for money hope to cash in on rich valuations lest Some of that money will go up in smoke, to keep going as the wheels of commerce stockmarkets lose their frothiness, and with or without the corona-crisis. What ground to a halt amid the pandemic. Many venture capitalists (vcs) patience with does not get torched will bolster corporate investors panicked. Surely, the thinking loss-making business models. vcs still haves, sharpening the contrast between went, public markets would freeze in the them and the have-nots. frigid fog of covid-19 uncertainty—and The original spark that lit capital mar- then stay frozen. Capital records 1 kets on fire was the $6.25bn in debt and Instead, within weeks they began to Corporate capital-raising*, worldwide, $trn equity that Carnival Cruise Lines secured thaw, then simmer, kindled by trillions of 4 in April, remembers Carlos Hernandez of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus Investment-grade corporate debt JPMorgan Chase, a bank. Investors rea- from governments desperate to avert an High-yield corporate debt soned that cruises will one day set sail Initial public offerings† 3 economic nuclear winter. In the past few again—by which time some of Carnival’s Follow-on share issues months they have turned boiling hot. flimsier rivals will have sunk. Other domi- According to Refinitiv, a data provider, 2 nant firms have benefited from this logic. this year the world’s non-financial firms Boeing, part of a planemaking duopoly, have raised an eye-popping $3.6trn in capi- 1 sold $25bn in bonds this spring, even as its tal from public investors (see chart 1). Issu- bestselling 737 max jetliner remained on ance of both investment-grade and riskier 0 the ground and the near-term future of tra- junk bonds set records, of $2.4trn and 151311092007 17 20‡ vel up in the air. Many Chinese companies $426bn, respectively. So did the $538bn in *Excluding financial firms †Including special purpose have taken to issuing perpetual bonds, secondary stock sales by listed stalwarts, acquisition companies ‡To December 7th which are never redeemed but pay interest Source: Refinitiv which leapt by 70% from last year, revers- for ever, to repair their balance-sheets. 1 64 Business The Economist December 12th 2020

by 39% since. On December 8th Tesla, an der annoyed regulators, may not frighten Trading places 2 electric-car maker whose market value has other listers. And so long as geopolitical United States, $bn grown seven-fold this year, to $573bn, said tensions between America and China per- 150 it plans to issue $5bn-worth of shares. sist, more Chinese firms with an American With shareholder payouts trimmed or stock ticker may avail themselves of a Hong Venture-capital funding rounds 120 suspended until the covid fog lifts, the cash Kong one, observes Julien Begasse de held by the world’s 3,000 most valuable Dhaem of Morgan Stanley, a bank. 90 listed non-financial firms has exploded to For now, capital is likely to keep flow- $7.6trn, from $5.7trn last year (see chart 4). 60 ing. Mr Hernandez says his bank’s pipeline Initial public Even if you exclude America’s abnormally of ipos looks “the most robust in years”. offerings* 30 cash-rich technology giants—Apple, Mi- The ten-year Treasury yield is below 1% and crosoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook— the spreads between American govern- 0 corporate balance-sheets are brimming ment and corporate bonds have narrowed 17151311092007 20† with liquidity. to pre-pandemic levels. As a result, even *Excluding special purpose acquisition companies It is still too early to tell what firms will riskier firms’ paper yields less than 5%, ac- and financial firms †Annualised do with all that cash. The merger market is cording to JPMorgan Chase. Investors ex- Sources: Refinitiv; PitchBook showing signs of life, though mostly as pecting meaningful returns are therefore deals put on ice during the pandemic are eyeing stocks. For the pandemic’s cor- 2 By the summer, notes Ms Scher, “rescue being revived. Many companies will con- porate winners, the choice between cheap capital-raising” had given way to some- tent themselves with maintaining liquid- debt and cheap equity is a win-win. 7 thing less defensive. Investors’ ultraloose ity, at least until a covid-19 vaccine be- purse-strings allowed opportunistic firms comes more widely available. to lock in historically low coupons. s&p Startups, for their part, will use ipo pro- Big tech and antitrust Global, a rating agency, calculates that the ceeds to blitzscale their way to profitability. average investment-grade bond issued this The pandemic has made business models Battle commences year paid interest of 2.6% amid the covid that might not have matured for years, recession, down from 2.8% in 2019. Thanks such as digital health, suddenly viable. to a boom in online shopping and cloud Many will fail. But for now giddy investors computing, Amazon, which is a leader in are pouring money into any firm whose ipo both areas, can now borrow at 1.5% for ten prospectus features the words “digital”, A formidable alliance takes on years, more cheaply than any American “cloud” or “health”. Headier still, “special Facebook. Investors don’t seem to care firm since at least 1980—and than some purpose acquisition companies”, which go governments. Indebted giants like at&t, a public with nothing but a promise to merge etitia james, New York’s attorney-gen- telecoms-and-entertainment group, are with a sexy startup later on, and which have Leral, couldn’t be blunter in describing lengthening debt maturities. In November raised $70bn in 2020, mostly on Wall the antitrust case lodged on December 9th Saudi Aramco, an oil colossus, sold $2.3bn- Street, are shattering previous records. against the world’s biggest social network. worth of 50-year bonds, in spite of looming Markets seem no more discerning in “By using its vast troves of data and money climate policies that may cripple its busi- mainland China, where proceeds from list- Facebook has squashed or hindered what ness of selling crude long before 2070. ings hit $63bn, the most since 2010. Hong the company perceived as potential Even cheap debt, of course, must be Kong added another $46bn. Shanghai’s threats. They’ve reduced choices for con- rolled over and, perpetuities aside, eventu- star Market, a year-old technology board, sumers, they stifled innovation and they ally paid back. With stockmarket valua- this week welcomed its 200th member, degraded privacy protections for millions tions propped up by loose monetary policy, bringing its ipo haul to $44bn. In Septem- of Americans,” she declared, summarising and only a slim prospect of tightening, ber demand for shares to be traded on the the accusations. Forty-five states joined many firms opted to shore up their bal- Hong Kong Stock Exchange by Nongfu her bipartisan coalition against the giant. ance-sheets with new share issues. Da- Spring, a water-bottler, outstripped supply Separately, the Federal Trade Commission naher, a high-rolling industrial conglom- by 1,148 times. Even the authorities’ last- (ftc) sued Facebook for monopolistic prac- erate, raised over $1.5bn by selling new minute suspension of Ant Group’s record- tices in social-networking and demanded stock just after its share price returned to breaking $40bn ipo in Hong Kong and remedies including the firm’s break-up. its pre-pandemic highs in May; it has risen Shanghai, after the fintech titan’s co-foun- A few years ago co-ordinated action by 46 states and the ftc that could split Face- book apart was unthinkable, says Lina Universal picture Khan, an antitrust scholar at Columbia Law School. But the case is about more than By region*, 2020, $bn 3 Cash and marketable securities‡, $trn 4 narrow competition law. The controversies around Facebook’s privacy practices, the United States Debt issued Equity raised 8 spread of fake news and conspiracy theo- Asia Pacific Debt issued Equity raised FAMAA (Facebook, Apple, ries on the platform, and its exploitation by Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet) Europe Debt issued Equity raised 6 authoritarian regimes mean regulators 400 and politicians are set on forcing change. 300 4 Will they succeed? The cases look 200 strong. Experts judge Facebook to be the Others 2 lowest-hanging antitrust fruit, alongside 100 Google (which America’s Justice Depart- 0 0 ment sued over alleged monopoly abuses in October). Amazon and Apple are in the D†NOSAJJMAMFJ 151311092007 17 20† crosshairs, but those cases will take longer, Sources: Refinitiv; Bloomberg *Excluding financial firms †To Dec 7th ‡Top 3,000 global listed non-financial firms by market capitalisation if they come at all, says an antitrust expert. 1 The Economist December 12th 2020 Business 65

2 The Facebook lawsuits centre on its ac- tech’s mostly free products, the suits try a nigh impossible. Last year it started inte- quisitions. The firm maintained its mo- novel argument: that damage is done to us- grating Instagram, WhatsApp and Messen- nopoly in personal social-networking by ers’ privacy and advertisers’ choice. ger more deeply. And the ftc’s complaint systematically buying up potential com- Facebook will argue that its market is fails to mention it cleared the Instagram petitors, both contend—notably Instagram social media, which is broader and more and WhatsApp deals. The government in 2012 and WhatsApp in 2014. A smoking competitive than social-networking. Tik- “now wants a do-over”, sending a chilling gun could be Onavo, an Israeli firm Face- Tok, a Chinese-owned short-video app, is warning to American business that “no book bought in 2013—to protect user data, now more popular than Instagram among sale will ever be final”, Facebook said. the firm said. The suits claim it in fact used American teenagers. The internal Face- Markets shrugged off the news. Face- Onavo to track rival apps’ popularity and book emails on which the lawsuits hinge book’s shares dipped by 2%, in line with the select acquisition targets. Another alleged hardly paint a picture of a lazy monopolist; rest of big tech. Investors either see forced anti-competitive practice was blocking ri- Mr Zuckerberg and his lieutenants see divestitures as unlikely, says Brent Thill of val app developers from its platform. As competitive threats everywhere. Facebook Jefferies, an investment bank—or spy even consumer harm is hard to prove against big can also argue that breaking it up is well- more money to be made from spin-offs. 7 Bartleby Fair play

A new book argues that decency pays off in business as well as in life ice guys finish last. That pithy mot- airline built by Eddie Rickenbacker, a ment skills. When Danny Boyle, a film Nto was coined by Leo Durocher, a pioneer aviator who had granted mechan- director, was asked to organise the open- baseball manager noted for exulting at ics a 40-hour week, profit-related pay and ing ceremony of the 2012 London Olym- injuring his opponents and for cheating a pension. But when Frank Lorenzo took pics, he faced the tough task of keeping his players at cards. In 1969 his Chicago over the company in the 1980s, he cut the details secret when the project re- Cubs had a big lead in the closing weeks wages, alienated the staff and pursued a quired thousands of volunteers. The of the season, but he so alienated his policy of asset-stripping the company. The conventional approach would have been squad (and the umpires) that the team workers went on strike in protest and to make the volunteers sign a non-dis- failed to make it to the World Series. In Eastern went bankrupt. closure agreement. Instead, he asked his case, nasty guys finished behind. Another contrast cited by the author is them to keep the surprise—and trusted This is one of the tales told by David that between Steve Ballmer, the hard- them to do so. They did, thanks to the Bodanis, a writer best known for his charging chief executive of Microsoft grown-up way he treated them. He lis- science books, who has turned his atten- notorious for his towering rages, and his tened to their ideas for improving parts tion to the issue of how leaders should more emollient successor, Satya Nadella. of the ceremony and ensured (by threat- exercise their authority. The core mes- Mr Ballmer so disliked Apple that he seized ening to resign) that the volunteers did sage in his book, “The Art of Fairness”, an iPhone from a subordinate in full view not have to pay for their costumes. can be found in the subtitle: “The power of the humiliated employee and pretended Mr Boyle demonstrated one of the of decency in a world turned mean”. to stomp on it. On his watch Microsoft most important traits of good leadership, The Empire State Building was con- missed out on several promising business the author argues, which is a willingness structed in just 13 months, and that in- opportunities. On the day Mr Ballmer to listen. This relates to a concept known cluded the dismantling of the Waldorf- announced his departure the share price as the “power distance”. If a relationship Astoria hotel that sat on the site. Paul jumped by 7.5%. Under Mr Nadella, Micro- has a high power-distance score, it is Starrett, the builder, treated his workers soft has successfully shifted its attention assumed that junior staff should not rather well by the standards of the time, to cloud-based services and even briefly question their superiors’ decisions; a paying much attention to safety and regained the title of the world’s most valu- lower score means that senior staff are paying employees on days when it was able listed company. willing to listen. too windy to work. Daily wages were Public projects also require manage- Perceptions may differ sharply over more than double the usual rate and hot whether listening takes place. A study by meals were provided on site. Johns Hopkins University found that The concept is known as “efficiency 64% of the medical specialists inter- wages”. Companies that compensate viewed felt that their operations had high workers well and treat them fairly can levels of teamwork, whereas only 28% of attract better, more motivated staff. their nurses agreed. Unlike most construction projects, the Individuals can become fixated on a Empire State Building had low staff particular approach to resolving a pro- turnover, and workers suggested produc- blem and ignore any advice that suggests tivity improvements such as building a a different tack, especially if it comes miniature railway line to bring bricks to from a junior colleague. “When your the site. But Starrett was not naively underlings aren’t terrified of you, and generous; he hired accountants to patrol you’re modest enough to know you’re the works, checking that all materials fallible, you can set up the channels that were accounted for, and staff attendance will help you avoid fixation,” Mr Bodanis was recorded four times a day. writes. It is a wise lesson. Ruling by fear The author contrasts Starrett’s story may work for a while, but it is doomed to with the tale of Eastern Air Travel, an fail in the long run. Remember Durocher. 66 Business The Economist December 12th 2020

Information technology integration of sap affiliates acquired by Mr Enterprise resource course Klein’s predecessor, Bill McDermott. These Hitting the reset include Concur, a travel-expenses firm; Share prices, January 1st 2016=100 Ariba, a procurement platform; and Suc- button 400 cessFactors, which makes hr software. Microsoft This will require additional investments by 350 sap. So will Mr Klein’s plan to increase BERLIN Salesforce 300 spending on research and development. Can Christian Klein overhaul sap’s NASDAQ sap must now persuade its 35,000-odd ageing business model? Composite 250 erp index clients of the benefits of the cloud. It ount on us, hold us accountable and 200 must convince investors of the same thing. Oracle “Ctogether we will reinvent the way 150 Licences for on-site software bring a big businesses run.” Thus ends a recent letter SAP chunk of revenue upfront, whereas cus- of support from 337 senior managers at sap, 100 tomers initially pay much less for rolling a maker of business software, to Christian 50 cloud subscriptions. But recurring rev- Klein, their chief executive. In April Mr 201918172016 enues are increasingly coveted by all man- Klein, then a stripling 39 years old, took ner of technology firms, from Amazon and over as sole boss of Europe’s biggest tech- Revenues for ERP* software, $bn Apple to Netflix, because they are more nology firm, after running it for a few predictable and build a closer relationship Top five companies months in tandem with Jennifer Morgan, with customers. The shift to the subscrip- an American who used to helm sap’s busi- 2018 2019 of which cloud-based tion model will eventually mean a big rev- ness across the Atlantic. He needs all the 86420 enue lift for sap, predicts Mark Moerdler at sap love he can get, for faces a challenge. SAP Bernstein, a broker. Mr Klein became ceo at the peak of co- As for the transition to the cloud, it need vid-19’s first wave. It had hurt sap more Oracle not be onerous technically. That is a bit of than other tech firms: many of its biggest red herring, thinks Paul Sanderson of clients, such as carmakers and energy com- Workday Gartner. The bigger challenge is changing panies, were temporarily hit by the pan- the culture of sap, which has become too demic. And it struck as more rivals were vy- Sage removed from its clients. ing for swathes of the business-software Infor Rivals will try to exploit the transition market that the German giant used to rule. period to win over some of those custom- Then, in October, Mr Klein was hum- Sources: Bloomberg; Gartner *Enterprise resource planning ers. Larry Ellison, the colourful co-founder bled when he presented changes to sap’s and now chief technology officer of Oracle, business model that would depress mar- sap is very late to the cloud, where com- declared last year that “sap’s customer base gins in the short run and delay earlier rev- panies have been progressively moving for is up for grabs.” His subsequent claim that a enue and profit targets by two years. Com- the past 20 years, says Liz Herbert of Forres- huge client of sap was about to defect to bined with lacklustre results for the third ter Research, a consulting firm. Oracle, Oracle proved unfounded. Another such quarter, the news shaved 22% off the firm’s which also embarked on the transition be- boast might not be. 7 share price, wiping out €35bn ($41bn) in latedly, has done so swiftly. So has Micro- market value, the sharpest drop in 21 years soft, the world’s biggest software-maker, and almost unheard of for a firm of sap’s with ambitions to expand its enterprise of- Commercial arbitration size (see top chart). The purchase of almost ferings. By contrast, sap remains more of a €250m in sap shares the following day by hybrid. It has moved a chunk of its busi- The case of the Hasso Plattner, chairman of the superviso- ness to the cloud but many big customers ry board, who co-founded the company 48 still use its software on their premises. disappearing cases years ago, did not reassure investors. Why the dithering? Shifting complex, To regain their confidence Mr Klein customised end-to-end erp processes to must improve sap’s offering in the cloud, the cloud is much harder than uploading More legal disputes over business in and persuade more of its clients to move human resources, sales or customer-rela- India are settled elsewhere there. And he needs to do this while fend- tionship management, Mr Klein explains. ing off competition from firms such as Ora- And erp remains sap’s bread and butter: it mazon, vodafone and Cairn Energy cle, Salesforce and Workday in America, controls 21% of the market, according to Aoperate in different industries: e-com- sap’s biggest market. Gartner, a research firm, compared with merce, telecoms and oil-and-gas explora- The pandemic has softened demand for 11% for Oracle, its closest competitor (see tion, respectively. But they share a com- “enterprise resource planning” (erp) soft- bottom chart). A whopping 92% of Fortune mon predicament. All are waging legal ware, which firms use to manage their 500 companies—from carmakers, like battles over their Indian operations—and everyday operations—and which has long bmw, to defence firms, such as Lockheed doing so outside India. been sap’s forte. It has also prompted sap’s Martin—use sap software. It therefore can- The trio are part of a larger wave. Last existing clients, typically large or medium- not get the transition wrong. sap listened year nearly 500 cases filed in the Singapore sized manufacturers, to rethink their erp to its customers and took a methodical ap- International Arbitration Centre came processes. “I never had so many calls from proach, says an executive at a rival software from India. No other country came close ceos who wanted to talk about supply firm, whereas the market wants it to move (see chart on next page). The number of chains,” says Mr Klein. Retailers and manu- fast and break things. Indian parties involved in arbitration facturers asked sap for tools to get more Even so, says Mr Klein, “covid was clear- through the Paris-based International visibility of their suppliers. Critically, ly an inflection point.” Bosses of big firms Chamber of Commerce tripled last year, to many of them demanded that erp, which who may have waited another five years be- 147. More quietly, London remains a crucial has traditionally resided on firms’ own fore switching to the cloud now want to centre for India-related commercial spats, servers, be moved to the cloud instead. speed up. They are also demanding a closer as to a lesser extent does The Hague. Two 1 The Economist December 12th 2020 Business 67

person arbitration panel in The Hague. Self-driving cars The prime minister’s office is said to be torn over offshore arbitration. On the one Spinning off hand, it believes that foreigners have no right to contest Indian taxes; partly in response to such cases it has withdrawn from Uber is selling its supposedly vital autonomous-vehicle division 73 bilateral investment treaties, including n 2016 travis kalanick, then Uber’s which the cars rely often struggles to the British and Dutch ones, and imposed Ichief executive, described self-driving cope with “edge cases”, which are absent more onerous terms for challenging tax as- cars as mission-critical. If somebody from software’s training data but pop up sessments in new ones it has signed. managed to beat Uber to making them regularly on real roads. On the other hand, it fears that rejecting work, he said, then the rival’s ability to Uber’s self-driving progress has, arbitration would reinforce the sense that offer taxi trips without paying for human according to industry rumours, been India is a toxic place for foreign firms to in- drivers would mean that “Uber is no slow. In 2018 one of its cars ran over and vest. Appealing against a decision—let longer a thing.” killed a pedestrian in Arizona. It is not alone ignoring it—brings costs, not least by Times change. On December 7th Uber alone; Tesla’s “Autopilot” feature has putting off investors at a time when Mr announced the sale of its self-driving been linked to at least four deaths since it Modi is keen to lure them away from China. arm to a firm called Aurora. No price was was launched in 2015. But Uber’s Kalan- The second category of disputes settled given. But Uber said it would put another ick-era reputation for rule-breaking has abroad involves only private parties. These $400m into the unit; that Dara Khosrow- made the pr burden heavier. often move offshore simply because busi- shahi, its current boss, would join Auro- The bearish interpretation of the sale ness moves fast whereas Indian courts do ra’s board; and that the deal would leave is that, having given up on self-driving, not. It takes more than three years on aver- it with a 26% stake in Aurora. Uber will remain a fancy taxi-and-deliv- age to resolve a case before the High Court One reason for the spin-off is Uber’s ery firm. But if Aurora can buck expecta- in Mumbai and nearly three years in Delhi, belated effort to return to profit. It lost tions and make self-driving work, Uber according to a study by Daksh, a research $8.5bn in 2019, as it fought for market could license the technology back. And group. Seven years is not uncommon, share with rivals such as Lyft. Besides high-tech distractions like self-driving Daksh says. Lawyers in Mumbai’s High offloading the self-driving unit, the firm cars—or flying ones—may be the last Court report that is not hard to find cases has sacked workers and sold its Jump thing the firm needs. It is under pressure still pending from the 1960s. electric-bicycle division to Lime, a scoot- not just from rivals and investors but Most of the offshore private cases are reer firm. On December 8th Uber said it also from regulatory probes into its other solved quickly and quietly. Some, though, would flog its Elevate flying-car project big cost-saving innovation—the as- make headlines. The one involving Ama- to a startup called Joby Aviation. sertion that its drivers are not employ- zon is an example. In October the e-com- Another explanation is that the reality ees, but independent contractors. Joe merce giant won a favourable decision in of self-driving has lagged far behind the Biden, America’s president-elect, has Singapore to suspend the acquisition of a excitement, as it had done in the idea’s called that a “misclassification”. Tighter tottering retailer, Future Group, by Reli- earlier heydays in the1960s and the European rules will come into force by ance. Amazon had earlier negotiated with 1990s. The machine-learning software on 2022. Those edge cases look urgent. Future a right of first refusal on any sale. Given Future’s troubles, Amazon might reasonably have felt it had no time to wait 2 newish arbitration centres in the United Reliance Industries, a conglomerate fam- for a sluggish Indian court to intervene. In Arab Emirates, in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, ous for ably navigating India’s courts and appealing against the Singaporean arbitra- want in on the game. bureaucracy, chose Singapore as the venue tor’s decision to the Delhi High Court, Fu- Narendra Modi, the prime minister, is to fight a $1.6bn claim by the Indian gov- ture accused Amazon of acting “like the believed to dislike this trend. His adminis- ernment, which accused it of improperly East India Company of the 21st century”. tration sees it, with reason, as an infringe- extracting gas from fields owned by state- The comments chimed with Mr Modi’s in- ment of India’s sovereignty—but also as controlled firms. Reliance won and was structions to all Indians to “be vocal for lo- impugning its laws and judicial process. awarded $8m in compensation. cal”. They rhyme less well with his appeals The resistance to outside meddling in the Foreign arbitration is all the more at- to foreign investors. 7 country’s legal affairs is echoed by its bar tractive for firms lacking Reliance’s local association, which blocks foreign lawyers nous. Cairn, which is British, filed its case and law firms from practising locally. in The Hague, arguing that it should be paid Little India Crucial components of the legal system back $1.4bn in taxes involuntarily extract- Top ten foreign countries using the are nevertheless being outsourced. Com- ed on the basis of a retroactive law passed Singapore International Arbitration Centre panies feel that it is the best way to get a fair in 2012, which was applied to an asset sale 2019, number of cases shot in India. And for all its grumbling, In- six years earlier. Cairn says this violated a 5004003002001000 dia’s government understands that attract- bilateral investment treaty between Britain India ing investment requires the availability of and India; a decision is expected any day Philippines a judicial recourse that is considered effi- now. Vodafone’s case stems from the same China cient and fair—which Indian courts can at law and relies on a similar treaty which In- United States times seem not to be. dia signed with the Netherlands. The firm, Brunei The emigrant cases can be divided into which had purchased mobile-telephony U A E two categories. The first kind involve the assets in 2007, won a bitterly fought case Switzerland Indian government. Vyapak Desai of Nish- before India’s Supreme Court in 2012 ex- Indonesia ith Desai Associates, an Indian law firm empting it from a capital-gains tax on the Thailand with expertise in the area, has compiled a transaction, only to have the levy reim- Malaysia list of more than a dozen big cases pending. posed by India’s parliament. In September Source: Singapore International Arbitration Centre Some were brought by Indian firms. In 2017 it won a unanimous decision from a three- 68 Business The Economist December 12th 2020 Schumpeter Dirigiste? Moi?

Swathes of France sa have shaken off the attention of politicians—and thrived less use for political connections. The index’s brightest stars today are luxury giants such as lvmh (of Louis Vuitton fame), Kering (Gucci) and Hermès; L’Oréal, a beauty-products firm; Sanofi, a drugmaker; and a host of industrial giants. Selling handbags or skincare products to Chinese yuppies is a global contest in which French firms excel, thanks to competent management. Lesser- known but equally astute companies such as Schneider Electric, a specialist in energy-management kit, have outperformed Ameri- can rivals such as 3m and General Electric, and European ones like Siemens and abb. Investors in Air Liquide, a chemicals firm, have enjoyed juicier returns than those of Germany’s basf or America’s DuPont. Publicis, an advertising group, is worth nearly three times as much as in 2000, while rivals like wpp in Britain and Omnicom in America have lost market value. EssilorLuxottica, a French-Ital- ian firm, is the world’s biggest purveyor of spectacles. Even more telling, some big firms began to prosper only once unshackled from the government yoke. Total, an oil-and-gas major, used to be worth a fraction of bp or Royal Dutch Shell. As it has gained distance from the corridors of power since privatisation in 1992, it has caught up with its European rivals’ valuations. Safran, an aerospace firm, has seen its market value go up 14-fold in two decades as the state has sold down its stake. Airbus has outpaced f dinner parties were permitted in locked-down France, it is its American jetmaking nemesis, Boeing, as political meddling (by Inot hard to guess what would set le tout Paris aflutter. For months the many European governments that founded it) has ebbed. bankers, politicians and other pre-covid canapé-scoffers have tak- And today political allies carry less heft than they once did. Ac- en sides in a corporate battle royale pitting two century-old firms cording to Morgan Stanley, a bank, over 70% of big French firms’ against each other. Veolia, a water- and waste-management utility, revenues nowadays come from overseas, where French politicians has been struggling to gobble up Suez, a rival which is resisting hold little sway. Most regulation critical to French firms used to be fiercely. The proposed deal is mired in legal disputes, boardroom done at national level, where regulators were drawn from the same recriminations and ministerial intrigue. All grist to the mill for ena lecture halls as corporate bosses. Now a lot is carried out by those who see French business as the product of its politicians’ di- European or global watchdogs. rigiste tendency to shape the private sector in the mould of the That is not to say that big firms and politicians steer clear of public one. But look at the wider French business landscape and each other. France’s foreign minister recently waded into lvmh’s the stereotype is out of date. Away from the clutches of politicians, takeover of Tiffany, an American jeweller, in ways that were eye- many French firms have become world-beaters. Is this thanks to brow-raisingly useful for the French luxury champion. But direct the attention of elected officials—or in spite of it? patronage is becoming a burden. The French authorities remain a The ugly spat between Veolia and Suez shows politics still mat- shareholder in Renault and in 2019 clumsily handled a proposed ters in Parisian business circles. Given the two firms offer the same merger with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, an Italian-American rival outsourced environmental services to customers dotted across (whose big shareholder, Exor, owns a stake in The Economist’s par- the globe, a tie-up has long been mooted. Veolia having already ent company). Peugeot, a nimble competitor with no direct state seized nearly a third of its target’s shares, each side has lined up shareholding, is now in the midst of the merger Renault fluffed. members of l’establishment to make its case. Their brief is not so much to convince shareholders of the merits of a deal, as might be French whines the case in Britain or America. Rather, politicians whose assent is Corporate France has plenty of shortcomings. It has no tech giants considered critical are an important audience. Suez and Veolia are to match Google or Amazon. Many large companies with few state each said to have a former speechwriter to President Emmanuel ties, such as Accor, a hotel chain, and Carrefour, a retailer, are de- Macron lobbying for them (not the same one). Given that a slew of cidedly ordinary. The cac 40 was lagging behind its European and legal challenges and regulatory clearances is required, the out- American equivalents even before covid-19 hit the French econ- come will not be known for months. Few think it will hinge on the omy particularly hard. Its smaller firms pale in comparison to Ger- transaction’s commercial merits. many’s Mittelstand. And French politicians, though no longer the Such intrigue used to delight the French business elite. Now it dirigiste master-planners of yore, still pine for national (or Euro- feels old hat. Look at the top of the cac 40 index of France’s leading pean) champions to take on Chinese rivals. They frown on hostile companies today, and a new generation of firms has emerged. Two takeovers—the mere prospect of which serves to sharpen manag- decades ago the corporate league table was dominated by firms in ers’ minds—which is one reason the Veolia-Suez deal may fail. sectors in which relations with government matter, such as tele- That is a shame. Just ask Danone’s shareholders. In 2005 an un- coms, utilities or banking. The bosses of France Télécom or bnp Pa- solicited approach by PepsiCo for Danone was foiled by the French ribas, a bank, were inevitably former ministerial advisers. More authorities on the grounds yogurt-making was a strategic indus- often than not they had graduated from the École Nationale d’Ad- try. The American firm went on its way and has since delivered ministration (ena), a finishing school for public officials. fizzy profits for its shareholders. Those at Danone, meanwhile, Fast forward to today and the cac 40 is led by companies with have had to stomach far blander returns. 7 Finance & economics The Economist December 12th 2020 69

Productivity trends growth—wringing more output from available resources—is the ultimate source of Reasons to be cheerful long-run increases in incomes. It’s not everything, as Paul Krugman, a Nobel economics laureate, once noted, but in the long run it’s almost everything. Economists know less about how to boost productivity than they would like, however. Increases in labour productivity There are tentative signs that productivity growth might accelerate (that is, more output per worker per hour) he prospects for a productivity resur- nomic boom in history. A generation ago seem to follow improvements in educa- Tgence may seem grim. After all, the past economists had nearly abandoned hope of tional levels, increases in investment decade has featured plenty of technologi- ever matching the post-war performance (which raise the level of capital per work- cal fatalism: in 2013 Peter Thiel, a venture when a computer-powered productivity er), and adoption of new innovations. A capitalist, mused of the technological ad- explosion took place. And today there are rise in total factor productivity—or the effi- vances of the moment that “we wanted fly- tantalising hints that the economic and so- ciency with which an economy uses its ing cars, instead we got 140 characters”. cial traumas of the first two decades of this productive inputs—may require the dis- Robert Gordon of Northwestern University century may soon give way to a new period covery of new ways of producing goods and has echoed this sentiment, speculating of economic dynamism. services, or the reallocation of scarce re- that humanity might never again invent Productivity is the magic elixir of eco- sources from low-productivity firms and something so transformative as the flush nomic growth. Increases in the size of the places to high-productivity ones. toilet. Throughout the decade, data largely labour force or the stock of capital can raise Globally, productivity growth deceler- supported the views of the pessimists. output, but the effect of such contributions ated sharply in the 1970s from scorchingly What is more, some studies of past pan- diminishes unless better ways are found to high rates in the post-war decades. A burst demics and analyses of the economic ef- make use of those resources. Productivity of higher productivity growth in the rich fects of this one suggest that covid-19 might world, led by America, unfolded from the make the productivity performance worse. mid-1990s into the early 2000s. Emerging According to research by the World Bank, Also in this section markets, too, enjoyed rapid productivity countries struck by pandemic outbreaks in growth in the decade prior to the global fi- 71 Buttonwood: Retail investors the 21st century (not including covid) expe- nancial crisis, powered by high levels of in- rienced a marked decline in labour produc- 72 OPEC’s latest masterplan vestment and an expansion of trade which tivity of 9% after three years relative to un- brought more sophisticated techniques 72 Mexico’s unbanked affected countries. and technologies to the developing-econ- And yet, stranger things have hap- 73 Banks get religion on climate change omy participants in global supply chains. pened. The brutal years of the 1930s were Since the crisis, however, a broad-based 74 Free exchange: Geographic bias followed by the most extraordinary eco- and stubbornly persistent slowdown in 1 70 Finance & economics The Economist December 12th 2020

2 productivity growth has set in (see chart 1). bour and tangible capital, and which is About 70% of the world’s economies have More innovation needed… 1 thus interpreted as a decline in productivi- been affected, according to the World Bank. Productivity, output per worker ty growth. Later, as intangible investments Accounting for the slowdown is a % change on a year earlier bear fruit, measured productivity surges fraught process. The World Bank reckons 6 because output rockets upward in a man- that slowing trade growth and fewer oppor- ner unexplained by measured inputs of la- tunities to adopt and adapt new technology Emerging economies bour and tangible capital. from richer countries may have helped de- 4 Back in 2010, the failure to account for press productivity advances in the emerg- intangible investment in software made ing world. Across all economies, sluggish World 2 little difference to the productivity num- investment in the aftermath of the global bers, the authors reckon. But productivity financial crisis looks a culprit: a particular 0 has increasingly been understated; by the problem in places with ageing and shrink- end of 2016, productivity growth was prob- Advanced economies ing workforces. Yet while these headwinds -2 ably about 0.9 percentage points higher surely matter, the bigger question is why than official estimates suggested. 1815100520009590851981 new technologies like improved robotics, This pattern has occurred before. In 1987 Source: World Bank cloud computing and artificial intelligence Robert Solow, another Nobel prizewinner, have not prompted more investment and remarked that computers could be seen higher productivity growth. labour productivity growth appeared to be everywhere except the productivity statis- Broadly speaking, three hypotheses accelerating, from an annual increase of tics. Nine years later American productivi- compete to explain these doldrums. One, just 0.3% in 2016 to a rise of 1.7% in 2019: the ty growth began an acceleration which voiced by the techno-pessimists, insists fastest pace of growth since 2010. evoked the golden age of the 1950s and that for all the enthusiasm about world- But a third explanation provides the 1960s. These processes are not always sexy. changing technologies, recent innovations strongest case for optimism: it takes time In the late 1990s, the soaring share prices of are simply not as transformative as the op- to work out how to use new technologies internet startups hogged the headlines. timists insist. Though it is possible that effectively. ai is an example of what econo- The fillip to productivity growth had other this will turn out to be correct, continued mists call a “general-purpose technology”, sources, like improvements in manufac- technological progress makes it look ever like electricity, which has the potential to turing techniques, better inventory man- less plausible as an explanation for the dol- boost productivity across many industries. agement and rationalisation of logistics drums. ai may not have transformed the But making best use of such technologies and production processes made possible world economy at the dramatically disrup- takes time and experimentation. This ac- by the digitisation of firm records and the tive pace some expected five to ten years cumulation of know-how is really an in- deployment of clever software. ago, but it has become significantly, and in vestment in “intangible capital”. The J-curve provides a way to reconcile some cases startlingly, more capable. Recent work by Erik Brynjolfsson and tech optimism and adoption of new tech- gpt-3, a language-prediction model devel- Daniel Rock, of mit, and Chad Syverson, of nologies with lousy productivity statistics. oped by Openai, a research firm, has dem- the University of Chicago, argues that this The role of intangible investments in un- onstrated a remarkable ability to carry on pattern leads to a phenomenon they call locking the potential of new technologies conversations, draft long texts and write the “productivity J-curve”. As new technol- may also mean that the pandemic, despite code in surprisingly human-like fashion. ogies are first adopted, firms shift re- its economic damage, has made a produc- Though the potential of the web to sup- sources towards investment in intangi- tivity boom more likely to develop. Office port an economy in which the constraints bles: developing new business processes. closures have forced firms to invest in dig- of distance do not bind has long under- This shift in resources means that firm out- itisation and automation, or to make better whelmed, cloud computing and video- put suffers in a way that cannot be fully ex- use of existing investments. Old analogue conferencing proved their economic worth plained by shifts in the measured use of la- habits could no longer be tolerated. over the past year, enabling vast amounts Though it will not show up in any eco- of productive activity to continue with nomic statistics, in 2020 executives scarcely an interruption despite the shut- …but firms are trying 2 around the world invested in the organisa- tering of many offices. New technologies Share of companies that are likely to adopt tional overhauls needed to make new tech- are clearly able to do more than has gener- selected technologies by 2025, % nologies work effectively (see chart 2). Not ally been asked of them in recent years. 200 40 60 80 100 all of these efforts will have led to produc- That strengthens the case for a second Cloud computing tivity improvements. But as covid-19 re- explanation for slow productivity growth: cedes, the firms which did transform their Big-data analytics chronically weak demand. In this view, ex- activities will retain and build on their new pressed most vociferously by Larry Sum- Internet of Things ways of doing things. mers of Harvard University, governments’ Cyber-security inability to stoke enough spending con- Artificial intelligence The crisis forced change strains investment and growth. More pub- Text, image and voice processing Early evidence suggests that some trans- lic investment is needed to unlock the formations are very likely to stick, and that E-commerce economy’s potential. Chronically low rates the pandemic quickened the pace of tech- of interest and inflation, limp private in- Non-humanoid robots* nology adoption. A survey of global firms vestment and lacklustre wage growth since Augmented and virtual reality conducted by the World Economic Forum the turn of the millennium clearly indicate Distributed-ledger technology† this year found that more than 80% of em- that demand has been inadequate for most 3D/4D printing ployers intend to accelerate plans to dig- of the past two decades. Whether this Biotechnology itise their processes and provide more op- meaningfully undercuts productivity portunities for remote work, while 50% growth is difficult to say. But in the years Quantum computing plan to accelerate automation of produc- before the pandemic, as unemployment Source: “The Future of *Eg, drones tion tasks. About 43% expect changes like fell and wage growth ticked up, American Jobs Report”, WEF 2020 †Eg, blockchain these to generate a net reduction in their 1 The Economist December 12th 2020 Finance & economics 71

2 workforces: a development which could from America’s coasts, say, then strict zon- None of this can be taken for granted. pose labour-market challenges but which ing rules in the bay area of California will Making the most of new private-sector in- almost by definition implies improve- become less of a bottleneck. Office space in vestments in technology and know-how ments in productivity. San Francisco or London freed up by in- will require governments to engineer a rap- Harder to assess is the possibility that creases in remote work could be occupied id recovery in demand, to make comple- the movement of so much work into the by firms which really do need their workers mentary investments in public goods like cloud could have productivity-boosting ef- to operate in close physical proximity. Be- broadband, and to focus on tackling the fects for national economies or at the glo- yond that, and politics permitting, the educational shortfalls so many students bal level. High housing and property costs boost to distance education and telemedi- have suffered as a consequence of school in rich, productive cities have locked firms cine delivered by the pandemic could help closures. But the raw materials for a new and workers out of places where they might drive a period of growth in services trade, productivity boom appear to be falling into have done more with less resources. If tech and the achievement of economies of scale place, in a way not seen for at least two de- workers can more easily contribute to top in sectors which have long proved resistant cades. This year’s darkness may in fact firms while living in affordable cities away to productivity-boosting measures. mean that dawn is just over the horizon. 7 Buttonwood C’mon feel the noise

How retail investors often learn the wrong lessons from success t is better to be lucky than good. This is which is most of them. to good luck by churning their portfolios: Ithe customary quip of poker players ipo lotteries create a natural experi- they buy more stocks and they also sell who owe success in a big pot to an im- ment. Some retail investors (the treatment more. Having ruled out other explana- probable draw from the deck. In card group) get shares and some (the control tions the authors plump for the likeliest games it is usually clear whom fortune group) do not. The two groups have similar remaining one—that retail investors has favoured. Not so in investing. The characteristics. What separates them is “misinterpret random gains and losses randomness of financial markets makes sheer luck. Yet they subsequently behave as signals about their own ability”. They it hard to distinguish a good investor very differently. The treatment group are misconstrue noise as information. They from a lucky one. It is especially hard for more active in trading shares other than mistake luck for skill. people to assess their own skills. the allocated stock in the period after an This seems to confirm much of the This long-understood problem has ipo that enjoys a first-day “pop” in its prevailing wisdom about retail inves- fresh resonance. In the spring no-cost price. Trading volume is 7.4 percentage tors—that they have a habit of over- brokerages that cater to small investors points higher after two months than for trading to the detriment of their returns reported a surge in new accounts and in the control group. The difference in trad- and this tendency is linked to over- trading activity. Many of these newbie ing activity fades over time but is still confidence. It sits comfortably alongside investors made money. “Learning from marked six months after the ipo. the psychology literature, which says Noise”, a forthcoming paper in the Jour- Hyperactive trading by lottery winners people often interpret results in ways nal of Financial Economics by Santosh cannot be put down to their skill at picking that are favourable to their self-image. Anagol, Vimal Balasubramaniam and stocks. After all, lottery losers opt for the But there is a bit more to this study. Tarun Ramadorai, sheds light on how same ipo stocks, they pick the same win- Investors, it seems to suggest, might these investors might misinterpret their ners, but they do not trade as actively. suffer from “under-confidence” as well success. Their study’s main finding is Lottery winners seem to draw something as overconfidence. that retail investors who were randomly else from their involvement. Perhaps the Those in the treatment group who allocated shares in successful Indian lived experience of positive returns leads were allocated ipo stocks that went down ipos view their good fortune as evidence to naive extrapolation—the lesson learned in value on the first day’s trading subse- of skill. There are dangers for new in- being that stocks go up, so you should buy quently traded less actively than the vestors in misunderstanding the mar- more of them. But lottery winners respond control group. They took bad luck as a kets. But the bigger hazard might lie in sign of an absence of skill. The paper also misunderstanding themselves. casts light on how people learn about India is fertile ground for the study of themselves. The best investors are often retail investing. Its regulators require introspective, but many people reflect on companies to set aside up to 35% of the themselves as an external observer shares issued in an ipo to small share- would—by watching their own actions. holders. Each ipo has a minimum allot- You notice that you took part in a suc- ment size. Where there is lots of interest cessful ipo. You then infer from this that from retail investors, there may not be you must be good at trading stocks. enough small lots to go round. In such There are stock traders who are genu- cases shares are allocated randomly by inely good and not merely lucky. But the lottery. The “Learning from Noise” paper number of investors who can trade in is based on a sample of 85 of the 240 ipos and out of shares frequently and profit- that took place in India between March ably is vanishingly small. The “Learning 2007 and March 2012. Of these, 54 were from Noise” study shows how easy it subject to lotteries. The study’s main might be for you to convince yourself focus is the randomly allocated ipos that that you are one of them. But it is prob- enjoyed a first-day increase in price— ably wise to assume that you are not. 72 Finance & economics The Economist December 12th 2020

Oil production places 54%, 82% and 80% of people are Roll out the barrels banked respectively, despite Mexico being Opening the taps Crude oil production, January 2012=100 richer. Its gdp per person is close to 140 $20,400, around three to four times higher than in Kenya and India. UAE This shortfall is not just inconvenient. 120 Russia Counting cash adds to business costs, and those without accounts have little access to NEW YORK credit, slowing consumption and invest- Oil’s cartel may end its age of restraint 100 ment. The good news is that the country is artels exist to exert control. This year Saudi Arabia Kuwait improving financial inclusion, says Pablo Cthe Organisation of the Petroleum Ex- 80 Saavedra, who heads the World Bank’s Mex- porting Countries (opec) and its allies have ico programme. Only 27% of Mexicans had occasionally seemed to prefer chaos. In 60 an account in 2011, but the pandemic has March Saudi Arabia and Russia began a 20191817161514132012 made the issue “even more urgent”, he says. price war just as covid-19 crushed demand, Sources: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; IEA There are several reasons why so few akin to staging a fight atop a sinkhole. The Mexicans have access to financial services. group agreed in April to slash output, but at Banks are generally conservative. Condu- a big meeting in December oil ministers (uae), a core opec producer, has aired its sef, the financial watchdog, says bank fees took days longer than expected to decide own objections. Like Russia, the uae has in Mexico are high, with 30% of banks’ in- their next steps. The deal that emerged on worked to raise output (see chart). By 2030 come coming from commissions. In rural December 3rd was a relief to the market, as it hopes production capacity will climb by areas, branches can be hard to reach. Fur- the group agreed to lift production in Janu- nearly 25%, to 5m barrels a day. To that end, thermore, banks tend not to be interested ary by a modest 500,000 barrels a day. in November it said it had found 24bn bar- in the less well-off: only a fifth of the poor- Beyond January, however, opec and its rels-worth of oil tucked beneath Abu est 20% of Mexicans have accounts. Sur- allies planned not to plan. Any changes to Dhabi. opec’s new deal reflects an eager- veys show many Mexicans do not trust production will be decided in monthly ness to ensure such efforts pay off. The car- banks. Meanwhile, almost 60% work in the meetings. That is in part because it is diffi- tel and its allies want to provide oil markets informal sector, where they may receive an cult to predict oil’s recovery. It is also be- with some stability, but not enough to lift inconsistent income, in cash. The lack of cause the new year may mark the begin- output significantly elsewhere and chomp access affects some more than others—the ning of a new strategy. at their own market share. “You can’t as- poor, rural, women and indigenous people. It is a risky time to test new tactics. The sume blindly that opec will always be there Successive Mexican governments have oil market has begun a faltering comeback, to support prices,” says Damien Courvalin tried to improve access to financial institu- with China refining a record 14.1m barrels a of Goldman Sachs, a bank. tions. In 2018, a law was introduced to regu- day in October and demand picking up in That uncertainty may continue to late the fintech industry, which is now India, too. Promising data on vaccines in weigh on shale production in 2021, further booming. Under Andrés Manuel López November helped buoy prices to their draining investors’ appetite to finance Obrador (known as amlo) CoDi, a digital highest levels since March. But storage more capital spending. On December 8th payment system using qr codes and con- tanks and ships are still swollen with some America’s Energy Information Administra- tactless payments was introduced in 2019 3.8bn barrels of crude, nearly 10% above the tion forecast that the country’s oil output while financial literacy was included in the level the same time last year, according to would reach 11.4m barrels a day by the end school curriculum in September 2020 (cur- Kpler, a data firm. Brent crude, the interna- of 2021. That is up from 11.2m barrels a day rently schooling is via television during tional benchmark, jumped to almost $50 in November but still below the12.2m aver- the pandemic). Much still needs to be done on December 4th, after the opec deal. By age for 2019. 7 to hit the government’s goal of 65% of Mex- December 8th prices had dipped again, as icans having an account by 2024. optimism about Britain’s covid vaccine Mexico has also missed a chance pro- roll-out was doused by uncertainty over Mexico’s unbanked vided by the pandemic that other countries further lockdowns. have seized. Euromoney, a financial publi- Yet it is plain that key oil producers are Bringing Mexicans cation, points out that by the end of June tired of limiting output in ways that sup- 2m people in Colombia had opened bank port rivals. Capping production to maxi- to account accounts, compared with 1.4m in all of mise prices makes sense in a world of infi- 2019. Contrast that with Mexico, where the nitely growing demand and scarce amount of cash in circulation was up by al- resources. However oil demand may soon most 24% in November compared with the Financial exclusion will hamper peak, if it hasn’t already, due to energy effi- year previously, which the Bank of Mexico recovery from the pandemic ciency, electric cars and rising support for attributes primarily to the pandemic. One climate regulation. In that context, saving or most Mexicans online shopping reason for the difference is that Colombia oil riches for later looks increasingly mis- Fgoes like this: people order their goods has given handouts to the population, guided. Furthermore, competitors are hap- on Amazon or Mercado Libre, an Argentine which must be deposited into a bank ac- py to free ride on opec’s cuts. In 2016 the ecommerce site that is Latin America’s big- count, whereas amlo has been far stingier cartel and its partners agreed to curb pro- gest, but pay in cash at a convenience store. with support during the crisis. duction, providing a price support. That That is no surprise given only 37% of Mex- Newer firms in the private sector are boosted American frackers and depressed icans over 15 years old have a bank account, now driving growth, with online-only and opec’s market share, from 38% in 2016 to according to the World Bank. Some 86% of challenger banks seeing a rise in demand 34% last year. all payments in Mexico are in cash. for their services. Norman Müller, the co- Russia’s reluctance to support Ameri- Mexico is an anomaly both in Latin founder of Fondeadora, a challenger bank can oilmen spurred the price war in March. America and among emerging-economy that received $14m from Alphabet’s ven- In recent months the United Arab Emirates peers such as Kenya and India. In those ture arm, says of the 250,000 accounts that 1 The Economist December 12th 2020 Finance & economics 73

2 have been opened since it launched in June plex. Many methodologies have emerged, the carbon intensity of the global economy 2019, 40% were with people who were pre- each with their own drawbacks. One ap- were the same as a given portfolio. Scien- viously unbanked (the other 60% were proach tries to capture a portfolio’s carbon tists think the Earth is on course for 3 to 4°C “unhappily banked”, he says). He puts Fon- footprint. Here, the Partnership for Carbon of warming above pre-industrial levels. Fi- deadora’s success down to an understand- Accounting Financials (pcaf) is the front- nancial firms that have totted up their porting that “our competitor is cash, not other runner. But the lack of data is a problem; folio found a similar result. banks” and making the platform as simple small firms rarely disclose emissions. The score depends heavily on the ap- and transparent as possible. Since almost hsbc says climate-related data are provid- proach used, though. A study led by Julie everyone owns a mobile phone, mobile ed by only 12% of its loan portfolio. Raynaud of McGill University in Canada money should grow, too. As a result, pcaf users rely on sector av- looked at 12 different methods. Some of The current low level of financial inclu- erages to fill in the gaps. Double-counting those included the emissions from a firm’s sion is likely to hamper Mexico’s economic is endemic. Take the emissions from an of- supply chain in their calculations, for in- recovery from covid-19, which has been fice block that has a mortgage and is let out. stance, but others did not. Another differ- muted by a failure to control the pandemic. They could be counted by the mortgage ence was whether companies were as- For example, small and medium business- lender, any firm financing the companies sumed to hit their net-zero targets. These es provide 95% of Mexico’s private-sector using the office or even a firm financing the kinds of variations led to different results. employment but only 13% have access to city where the office is located. When the same index of low-carbon com- formal credit. Under such circumstances Another complication is divvying up panies was analysed by the 12 methods, “it is very hard to see how you have a strong emissions between various investors. they produced scores ranging from 1.5°C to recovery,” says Mr Saavedra. 7 pcaf’s approach is to use enterprise value 4°C—a huge difference, in climate terms. (equity plus debt) as a base. A bank lending One hope is that regulators will force $10m to a firm with an enterprise value of more rigour. They are worried that climate Climate finance $100m would be responsible for a tenth of change poses a systemic risk to the finan- the firm’s emissions. But the value of an as- cial sector and are demanding more infor- Counting the carbs set changes over time. If a company’s mar- mation on financed emissions. Calculating ket value increases or if it takes on more the carbon in a portfolio is part of climate debt, a lender’s share of the enterprise val- stress-tests, which will soon be conducted ue would shrink. The lenders’ carbon foot- in Britain, France and Australia. On No- print would fall through no action of its vember 27th the European Central Bank own. (pcaf says it is working on a fix.) said it will follow suit. A push towards More financial firms are setting A second approach to gauging green- more climate-risk disclosure could even- climate targets ness is to see whether the portfolio is tually require financed emissions data to inancial firms produce very few aligned with the Paris agreement, which be published, too. Fgreenhouse-gas emissions directly, aims to keep warming at less than 2°C Even then, the climate impact of banks aside from those associated with keeping above pre-industrial levels. The 2 Degrees hitting their targets will be unclear. A study the lights on and the computers whirring. Investing Initiative (2dii), a think-tank, by 2dii found that the holdings of coal But the picture changes dramatically when looks at the assets and production of port- plants by Swiss financial institutions, as you add “financed emissions”, those asso- folio companies to work out if, say, a car- measured by generating capacity, fell by ciated with a firm’s lending and investing maker is building enough electric vehicles 20% between 2017 and 2020. Yet the coal activities. Figures from the few banks and to meet the Paris goals. But many asset firms found funding elsewhere. By 2020, asset managers that disclose them suggest classes are not included. the original cohort of firms in the 2017 port- that financed emissions are 100 to 1,000 A third approach assigns a temperature folio had increased capacity by 50%. Banks times bigger than operational ones. score to portfolios. This represents how with zero-carbon loan books will attract Financed emissions are now coming much the Earth would heat up by 2100, if clients, but may not help the planet. 7 under more scrutiny from climate-con- scious clients and campaigners, and lenders are hoping to manage the associated reputational and regulatory risks. Green regulation, for instance, could damage the viability of an investment. On November 30th Barclays, a British bank, published plans for its net-zero target. Its goal will be to cut emissions from deals it arranges in the capital markets as well as on its loans. In September Morgan Stanley announced it would reach net-zero financed emissions by 2050. In October similar pledges were made by hsbc and JPMorgan Chase, banks from Britain and America respectively. The Net-Zero Asset Owner Alli- ance, a group of 30 investors with $5trn of assets under management, recently set targets for its members. Advocates hope the targets will be met either by divesting dirty assets or pressing polluters to clean up their act. But matters will not be so simple. For a start, assessing the emissions associated with a portfolio is fiendishly com- But who lent them the money? 74 Finance & economics The Economist December 12th 2020 Free exchange A question of illumination

The problem with economists’ geographical favouritism humanity lives within the world’s ten largest economies.) The quality and availability of data matter too, though less than economic size, as does a country’s use of English. About 90% of the papers in our sample are written in English. Professional incentives also play a role. An analysis by the World Bank of more than 76,000 empirical papers published between 1985 and 2004 found that top-five economics journals published about 6.5% of all papers written about America over that span, compared with just 1.5% of papers about other nations. Top economists are more likely to write about America. And even if you adjust for the prestige of the authors’ institutions it does not entirely eliminate the gap. Do countries which receive less attention necessarily suffer as a consequence? The recent increase in developing-world research has not been an unalloyed good. It has been driven, in part, by the rise of the randomised controlled trial—in which scholars randomly assign participants to different groups, only some of which receive a “treatment” (like a microloan or access to education). Well-constructed experiments can provide valuable guidance on how best to alleviate the worst harms of poverty. Yet critics argue that such trials provide little information about how to generate sustained economic development. They also raise ethical ques- n old joke: a policeman sees an inebriated man searching for tions: regarding whether desperate people and governments can Ahis keys under a lamp post and offers to help find them. After a truly give informed consent, for example. As Angus Deaton, a No- few fruitless minutes, the officer asks the man whether he’s cer- bel laureate, noted in 2019, such experiments are nearly always tain he dropped his keys at that particular location. No, says the conducted “by better-heeled, better-educated and paler people on man, he lost them in the park. Then why search here, asks the offi- lower income, less-educated and darker people”, creating a persis- cer. The man answers: “Because that’s where the light is.” For years, tent risk of exploitation. the story has been used to illustrate the simple point, of great rele- However, countries dogged by poor policy stand to benefit vance to social scientists, that what you find depends on where most from rigorous examinations of how bad policies fail. Accord- you look. And for much of its history, economics has examined a ing to The Economist’s analysis, regional success stories, like Chile very narrow set of countries. An analysis by The Economist of more or the Czech Republic, receive far more attention than you would than 900,000 papers published in economics journals (see Graph- expect given their underlying characteristics relative to failing ic detail), finds that as recently as 1990, roughly two-thirds of pub- places in the same regions, like Venezuela or Belarus. Reform- lished papers focused on the rich English-speaking countries: minded governments in understudied places, should they come to America, Australia, Britain, Canada and New Zealand. power, could be hamstrung by a dearth of quality research, outlin- A boom in the emerging world and a greater focus within eco- ing how past missteps contributed to present penury. Research bi- nomics on empirical work have broadened the reach of the lamp- ases could also mean that too little light is shone on the failures of light. The share of papers mentioning countries in the Middle interventions by institutions like the imf which may have exacer- East, Africa, Asia or Latin America has risen from 17% in 1990 to bated the problems of struggling countries. 41% today. Yet many parts of the world, such as poor African countries, remain heavily under-studied. Even within regions, some Attention, please places receive outsized attention. A recent survey of Africa by Obie Indeed, another reason for economists to spend more time on un- Porteous of Middlebury College found that 65% of papers about Af- der-examined places is that a broadening of horizons would im- rican economies published in the leading five economics journals prove the profession itself, and thus enable economists to serve focus on just five: Kenya, South Africa, Ghana, Uganda, and Mala- governments better. There are too many unanswered questions in wi. Some overlooked places might count that a blessing; attention economics for some corners of humanity to receive so little atten- from economists has not always been followed by economic suc- tion. The 70 least-studied countries account for just 1% of all men- cess. But the more of the world that economists study, the better tions in economics papers over the past three decades. their guidance is likely to be. It is thus in everyone’s interest for the And while the profession’s increasing focus on empirical work profession to continue to broaden its geographic reach. is welcome, concentrating research within the cone of light that Patterns of economic research are mostly explained by just a data provide means that some questions are asked much more of- few factors. The size of a country’s economy is the most signifi- ten than others: in particular, those which can be answered with cant, accounting for nearly 80% of the variation in research atten- statistical analysis. An effort to pay more attention to the places tion, according to our analysis. The importance of economic out- least able to provide high-quality data, which often face the tough- put in shaping research choices has a certain logic. Developed, est roads to development, would force economists to grapple with complex economies provide rich terrain for scholars to explore. If qualitative matters. If critical contributions to development come the lessons learned from large economies can be translated into from difficult-to-quantify variations in cultural factors, a geo- better policy in those places, then such research stands to benefit graphically limited discipline will find it hard to detect them. And more people than if scholars focused on minnows. (About half of both the world and the profession will be poorer for it. 7 Property 75 designed for clearer thinking Discover our app The best of our journalism, handpicked every day. 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Hydrogen-powered flight er purposes, such as heating and ground transport, is getting serious, meaning that If at first you don’t succeed... hydrogen might become available as a commodity, rather than having to be made specially. The balance of advantage may thus be shifting. So a few brave souls are looking once again at the idea of hydrogen- powered flight. Some people would like to replace hydrocarbon aviation fuel with hydrogen. Project Suntan used the stuff in the way Is that actually practical? that kerosene is used—to create the heat n the swamps of 1950s Florida, a loud tried in the 2000s. A small demonstrator needed to power a jet engine. That is one Iroaring occasionally disturbed the seren- has flown in Germany. But nothing has, as way forward. But many planes are driven ity of the local alligators. Under conditions it were, really taken off. Hydrogen, though by propellers, and this permits a second ap- of strictest secrecy, engineers from Pratt & light, is bulky, making it awkward to store proach, for propellers can be turned by Whitney, an aerospace company, were test- on board. It must be either pressurised or electric motors. Using fuel cells, a 19th- ing a new type of engine that was powered liquefied, both of which bring complica- century technology that is now coming by a strange substance apparently piped in tions of their own. On top of that, there is into its own, it is possible to generate the from a fertiliser plant in the nearby town of no established infrastructure for making electricity needed to do so with hydrogen. Apix. In reality, the town was just a name and distributing it. This is the tack taken by ZeroAvia, a firm on a map and the fertiliser plant was a ruse based in Cranfield, in southern Britain. In to fool the Russians. The disturbances were This time it’s different September ZeroAvia’s engineers unveiled a the result of Project Suntan, an attempt by Now, though, things have changed. Avia- six-seater fuel-cell-powered aircraft that America’s air force to build a plane fuelled tion is under pressure to curb carbon-diox- could take off, complete two circuits of the with hydrogen. It nearly worked. The en- ide emissions by burning less kerosene. airport, and land. The plane in question is a gines operated successfully, but storing And talk of building hydrogen-manufac- modified Piper M-class—a single-propeller and supplying the hydrogen itself proved turing-and-delivery infrastructure for oth- aircraft that is normally driven by a piston too expensive for production to continue. engine. The engineers replaced this with Suntan was just the first of a string of an electric motor, and installed a bank of Also in this section failed attempts to use hydrogen to power fuel cells to power that motor and a set of heavier-than-air flight. The allure is great. 78 Sonic warfare tanks to hold the hydrogen which runs the Hydrogen packs three times as much ener- fuel cells. 79 SpaceX’s latest launch gy per kilogram as kerosene, the current Val Miftakhov, ZeroAvia’s boss, hopes to standard aviation fuel, and lightness is at a 79 Gene therapy for blindness see this demonstrator take a 400km trip, premium aloft. Tupolev, in what was then tentatively scheduled for the week of De- 80 Bees, hornets and animal dung the Soviet Union, tried in the 1980s. Boeing cember 21st, followed by a longer flight 1 78 Science & technology The Economist December 12th 2020

2 from Orkney, an archipelago off the north- Bigger machines have bigger problems. public policy in Britain, no longer a mem- ern tip of Britain, next spring. (Orkney’s au- It requires much more power for a plane to ber of the eu but the site of several Airbus thorities are interested in “hopper” planes take off and land than to cruise, and neither facilities. eu policy in particular translates that can link the archipelago’s islands.) The batteries nor fuel cells yet have the oomph into actual money for relevant research via firm also plans to have a 20-seat demon- to do this for other than small aircraft. If the union’s Clean Sky 2 programme. strator ready in 2021. Certification for com- larger ones are to be hydrogen-powered, No such support, either moral or finan- mercial use might follow in 2023. that will require at least part of the work to cial, has been on offer in America over the Hot on the heels of ZeroAvia is H2Fly, a be done by returning to the Project Suntan past four years. Joe Biden’s incoming ad- spin-off from dlr, Germany’s aeronautical route and employing turbine-driven en- ministration, however, seems of one mind research centre. In 2016 this firm added fuel gines that burn the stuff as a gas. with Europe on matters environmental. cells to a motorised Pipistrel glider, which That approach is now being adopted by And this new direction is likely, as in Eu- then stayed aloft for 15 minutes. The plan is Airbus, a European firm which shares with rope, to be accompanied by public money. to extend that approach to a production- Boeing of America a duopoly on large pas- Boeing, moreover, would be taking a gam- version propeller-driven plane in tests to senger planes. In September Airbus un- ble by leaving hydrogen-power to Airbus. If be conducted imminently. Meanwhile, in veiled zeroe, a project centred on three the technology succeeded, it would risk America, an electric-motor manufacturer hydrogen-powered concept aircraft. losing an important part of its market— called magniX has announced a partner- Though these are single-aisle short-haul and that is something it certainly cannot ship with Universal Hydrogen, a firm in Los models, they are a step up from anything afford to do. 7 Angeles, to convert a 40-seat de Havilland that might be powered solely by fuels cells. Canada Dash 8-300 to run on fuel cells. All three are designed to yoke the two This, they hope, will be ready by 2025. hydrogen-based technologies together, Sonic warfare Such approaches seem likely to work in with hydrogen-burning turbine engines principle. They will, though, have to com- boosting take-off and fuel cells powering A megamegaphone pete in practice with electric aircraft pow- the cruise. One of the concepts is a turbo- ered by batteries. In May, an American firm prop that would carry up to 100 passengers called Aerotec flew a nine-seater Cessna for distances up to 2,000km. A larger tur- Caravan that had been converted to battery bofan version would take twice that load power through the skies above Washington twice as far. The third approach is more ex- Super-loudhailers are about to become state. The previous December, magniX col- perimental: a “blended wing” model, in louder still laborated with Harbour Air, a Canadian which fuselage and aerofoils form part of company, to fly a converted de Havilland the same triangular aerodynamic struc- ou need a pretty powerful bullhorn to seaplane in British Columbia. The two ture. The advantage of this is that it creates Ybroadcast a message to someone who is firms are now busy preparing this aircraft extra volume for hydrogen storage. 2km away. But that is what America’s navy for commercial certification. More ambi- The challenges of using hydrogen go be- is currently looking for. It wants, among tiously, several companies, such as Evia- yond body shape, though. Redesigning a other things, to be able to warn the crews of tion, an Israeli outfit, are attempting to turbine engine to run on the stuff will be a small vessels, who may or may not be hos- build battery-driven aircraft from scratch multi-billion-dollar endeavour. Hydrogen tile, not to come too close to its ships. And, rather than converting existing airframes. burns faster than kerosene, and also burns if the warning is ignored, it would like to be hotter. That means materials exposed to its able to hit them with a noise so piercing Batteries not included combustion experience greater stresses. It and horrible that even a determined at- Proponents of fuel cells say, though, that also risks increasing the pollution generat- tacker would have difficulty ignoring it and these are better than batteries for powering ed in the form of oxides of nitrogen, which carrying on regardless. flight because the cells plus their associat- would partially negate the environmental To some extent, it can do this already. ed fuel store many times more energy per benefits of burning hydrogen. And it would After USS Cole, a guided-missile destroyer, kilogram than batteries can manage. “Bat- be useful as well to arrange matters so that was attacked successfully by boat-borne teries really give you the acceleration. But some of the energy used to compress or liq- suicide-bombers in 2000, ripping a huge they won’t give you the range,” says Robert uefy the hydrogen for storage could be re- hole in the vessel’s side (see picture) and 1 Steinberger-Wilckens, a chemical engineer covered and put to work. at the University of Birmingham, in Brit- For the next few years, Airbus will focus ain. Battery technology is improving, but on developing the twin technologies of big breakthroughs will be needed before fuel-cells and hydrogen-powered turbines longer journeys with passengers and in parallel with the design of their future freight on board become possible. aircraft. If ground tests succeed, the firm Sticking electric power sources in an ex- hopes to have airborne demonstrators— isting aircraft, whether in the form of bat- what Glenn Llewellyn, Airbus’s vice-presi- teries or fuel cells, is a start. But such pro- dent for zero-emission aircraft, calls flying pulsion could lead to significant redesigns, testbeds—aloft by 2025. A full-scale proto- such as the one Eviation is planning for its type would follow by the end of the decade, putative product, Alice. This has three pro- with the first zero-emission commercial pellers, all of which face backward. Though airliner entering service by 2035. Who once popular, backward-facing propellers would supply the engines for such a plane have been out of fashion for decades. Elec- is not yet clear. But Safran, a French engine- tric vertical take-off and landing aircraft— maker that often works with Airbus, has people-carrying drones sometimes touted confirmed it is looking at hydrogen power as the future of personal transport—are for commercial aircraft. also often powered by multiple smaller So far, Boeing has not followed suit. electric motors, making them a good fit This geographical split may be no coinci- with fuel-cell-based hydrogen power. dence. eu public policy is firmly green, as is A breach of security The Economist December 12th 2020 Science & technology 79

2 killing 17 sailors, America’s admirals have lrads, which are used by some police Gene therapy been understandably nervous about the forces as well as the armed services, are al- proximity of such craft. One consequence ready controversial. Eyeball to eyeball of that nervousness is that they have ac- Six people, for example, are suing the quired so-called Long Range Acoustic De- New York Police Department for excessive vices (lrads) to hail possible threats. The use of force after being exposed to an lrad current top of the range, the 2000RX, gen- in 2014. They allege lasting damage, in- erates 160 decibels, while a portable cous- cluding tinnitus and migraines. In 2019 a A failed study, a happy accident and in, the 100X, manages 137. But the navy now federal appeal court took the plaintiffs’ a promising treatment for blindness wants something that combines the for- side and the case continues. And the Amer- mer’s power with the latter’s convenience, ican Speech-Language-Hearing Associa- n the textbooks, science is simple. You and with a higher fidelity of transmission. tion, a group of doctors who work in the Icome up with an idea, put it to the test, area, warns that lrads could cause perma- and then accept it or reject it depending on Now hear this nent hearing loss and balance problems, what your experiments reveal. In the real The upshot of that desire is a project called and advises protesters who might encoun- world, though, things are rarely that Focused Enhanced Acoustic-Driver Tech- ter them to wear hearing protection. In straightforward, as a paper just published nologies (feat) for Long Range Non-Lethal June, the mayor of Portland, Oregon, or- in Science Translational Medicine shows. In Hail and Warn Capabilities. This will build dered police not to use the “warning tone” it, a group of researchers led by Patrick Yu- on a previous effort, the Distributed Sound function against protesters. Wai-Man, an ophthalmologist at Cam- and Light Array (dsla), that used eight large More powerful sonic devices could save bridge University, investigated a promis- loudspeakers. feat, if the plans work, will lives by conveying warnings to people in ing new genetic therapy for a hereditary be more compact. small boats or vehicles approaching check- form of blindness. Officially, their study Existing lrads use piezoelectric ele- points before they behave, possibly mis- was a failure, for their experiment did not ments to generate their sound. feat, by takenly, in a way that risks their being fired show what the researchers hoped it would. contrast, will be similar to a conventional on. They could also warn occupants of But it was also a smashing success, for 29 of loudspeaker—employing a moving mag- buildings about to be cleared by force, giv- the 37 participants reported big improve- net to vibrate a diaphragm or cone. This ar- ing bystanders a chance to escape before ments in their vision. rangement works better at low frequencies the shooting starts, and enemy combatants The disease in question is Leber heredi- than piezoelectric sound generation, the option to surrender. However, smaller, tary optic neuropathy (lhon). A defective which is important if voices are to be pro- cheaper devices may prove more prone to gene in a sufferer’s mitochondria—the tiny jected, for lower frequencies make speech misuse than lrads. And if this new tech- structures that provide a cell’s energy— easier to understand. They are also better at nology spills over into the commercial sec- causes retinal cells to die. That leads to sud- penetrating buildings and vehicles, to de- tor, noisy neighbours could wage their own den and rapid loss of sight, with many suf- liver messages to those inside. kind of sonic warfare. 7 ferers becoming legally blind within a year.1 Louder loudspeakers, though, require stronger magnets and tougher materials. For the magnets, this may mean a better version of the neodymium devices currently favoured by the speaker industry, or possibly some more exotic material. For the diaphragms, the navy’s engineers may be looking at graphene, or possibly syn- thetic diamond. These allotropes of carbon are both much stronger than conventional speaker materials. feat will combine the outputs of several drivers (the vibrating units that convert an electrical signal into sound), using a technique called beamforming to focus them onto a distant target to create a total volume of more than 156 decibels. Beam- forming is widely employed in radio an- tennae, and the dsla showed that it is equally effective for sound waves. Lastly, and perhaps most ambitiously, feat will include technology intended to cancel at- mospheric distortion. This approach im- The fiery end of SN8 proves the focus of laser beams, but has not “Failure is an option here. If you are not failing, you are not innovating.” So said Elon yet been demonstrated to work for a beam Musk a few years after he had set up SpaceX, his private rocketry firm. And fail, at the of sound. end, his most recent test did. On December 9th SN8, the latest incarnation of SpaceX’s The navy is now selecting contractors Starship, a craft intended as the second stage of a rocket that will be able to carry 100 for a nine-month feasibility study. If that tonnes of payload, people included, into orbit, and thence to the Moon and Mars, took works, the second stage will be to build a off perfectly from its pad in Boca Chica, Texas. It rose to an altitude of 12.5km, cut its prototype for testing by the marine corps. three engines and manoeuvred itself parallel with the ground to fall back to Earth. Just Once deployed, the technology will also be before touch down it restarted its engines and lifted itself upright to land. But it came in shared with the Departments of Justice, too fast, and the result can be seen above. Nothing daunted, Mr Musk said that the flight Homeland Security and others. This will had provided “all the data we needed” before its RUD. For those not in the know, RUD is not be music to everyone’s ears, though, for SpaceX jargon for “Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly”. 80 Science & technology The Economist December 12th 2020

2 It affects between one in 30,000 and one in Bees versus hornets away. But not always. Often, they get inside 50,000 people. Men in their 20s and 30s are and, once there, each hornet kills thou- particularly susceptible. Treatment is lim- The uses of dung sands of bees. This slaughter paves the way ited and not particularly effective. for the hornets to gather the real target of Since most cases are caused by a muta- the attack, the brood of larvae developing tion in a single gene, lhon is a good candi- in the hive. These, they carry away to feed date for gene therapy, a form of genetic en- to their own young waiting back at the nest. gineering which aims to replace the That obliterates the hive. defective gene with a working one. With Hornet attacks are devastating to api- Chemical warfare in the insect world that in mind, Dr Yu-Wai-Man and his col- culture, so there is great interest from bee- leagues loaded up a modified virus with a oneybees in asia have it rough. Un- keepers in finding ways to help their char- corrected copy of the gene and injected it Hlike their cousins in North America, ges keep these predators at bay. When Dr into their patients’ eyes. where bee-eating hornets have arrived Mattila’s co-author Gard Otis, of the Uni- Many viruses can insert their genes into only recently, Asian bees are relentlessly versity of Guelph, in Canada, learned from the dna of their hosts. Ordinarily, that is a hunted by these giant wasps. Constant at- a beekeeper in Vietnam that bees there bad thing, because cells so subverted churn tacks have kicked Asian honeybee evolu- stick globs of water-buffalo dung on their out more copies of the virus. In this case, tion into high gear and resulted in the in- hives after being visited by hornets, it the hope was that infection would be a sects developing several defensive tactics therefore piqued his curiosity. good thing. The defanged virus could not besides simply using their stings. First, That, in turn, led Dr Otis, Dr Mattila and reproduce. But it was capable of replacing Asian honeybees build their nests as for- their colleagues to visit Vietnam, where the damaged gene with a working copy. tresses, with tiny entrances and tough they monitored 339 honeybee hives. They Most medical studies make use of a con- walls. They also hiss aggressively at preda- discovered that many of these hives were trol group, against which the effectiveness tors, to warn them they are being moni- indeed covered in globs of what looked like of the treatment can be measured. Here, tored. And, if that doesn’t work, they can manure, and that most of these globs were the researchers controlled the experiment swamp attackers in “bee balls”, which gen- clustered around the hive entrance. When by injecting only one of each patient’s erate such heat that hornets inside are they monitored bees’ movements they dis- eyes—chosen at random—with the virus. cooked alive. Now, a study published in covered not only that the bees were collect- The other eye was given a sham injection, PLOS ONE, by Heather Mattila of Wellesley ing buffalo dung, but also that they regular- in which a syringe was pressed against the College, in Massachusetts, shows that ly created globs from faeces collected at a eye, but nothing came out of it. Using two these bees have yet another trick up their chicken coop and a dung pile in a pig enclo- eyes in the same patient makes for a perfect sleeves: they shield their homes with dung. sure. Further monitoring of the hives control: their genetic make-up is identical, Vespa mandarinia and Vespa soror are showed that the bees quickly attached hun- and any confounding lifestyle factors are known as murder hornets for a reason. dreds of globs of faeces to their hives after removed from the equation. When scouts from these species find a hornet attacks. honeybee hive they land and leave chemi- Cross-eyes cal markers near the entrance. The scouts Off the mark The surprise came several months into the then return with up to 50 of their kin to To see whether this was a consequence of study. The researchers had hoped to see a launch an attack. Armed with powerful the chemical marks, Dr Mattila and her col- big improvement in the treated eyes, com- jaws and tough body-armour that makes leagues collected extracts from the glands pared with the untreated ones. They did them resistant to bee stings, the hornets hornets use to secrete the substances in- not, and for that reason the study failed in besiege the hive’s entrance and try to tear it volved. They then soaked some filter pa- its primary objective. Instead, in more than apart so that they can force their way in. pers in these extracts and put bits of this three-quarters of their patients, they saw They are attacked by guard bees as they do material near hive entrances. As a control, substantial improvements in both eyes. so, and are sometimes successfully driven they also soaked some filter papers in On the face of it, that was bizarre. Only ether, and distributed those likewise near one eye had received the treatment, after the entrances of other hives. all. Follow-up studies in monkeys con- The hornet extract provoked a strong re- firmed what the researchers had suspect- sponse. Within a day of its arrival hive ed. The virus, it seems, had found a way to members created an average of 15 nearby travel from one eye to the other, probably globs. The ether prompted an average of via the optic nerve. Tissue and fluid sam- only two. This suggests bees are indeed ples from monkeys given the same treat- wise to the marking tactics of hornets, and ment as the human patients showed viral prepare for a potential attack accordingly. dna in both eyes, not just one. To make sure the globs actually do help Although it had a happy outcome in this bees defend their hives, the team recorded case, the prospect of a gene-therapy virus some attacks. A well-globbed-up hive, they travelling to places it is not intended to go found, reduced the amount of time hornets might worry regulators. Fortunately, the spent trying to break in by 94%. researchers found no trace of the virus Why globs of faeces repel hornets re- elsewhere in the monkeys’ bodies, includ- mains a puzzle. Dr Mattila speculates that ing the visual cortices of their brains. And, dung contains compounds which antago- though the study was technically a flop, its nise the hornets in some way. Specifically, practical success means that an effective these would be defensive substances syn- treatment for lhon may at last be in reach. thesised by the plants that buffalo, pigs and GenSight Biologics, the company that has chickens eat. If that idea does indeed turn developed the treatment, has already sent out to be correct, then it seems Asian hon- its results to Europe’s medical regulator. It eybees have invented an effective form of hopes to hear back by the end of 2021. 7 Incoming! chemical warfare. 7 Your clients don’t have to be machine learning engineers to help make the future a smarter place. Help power your portfolio with the innovators of the Nasdaq-100.

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Also in this section 83 The Enlightenment 84 Johnson: Accent discrimination 86 William Kentridge’s art

American extremism ous bout of such violence eased only after an anti-government fanatic, Timothy Fear and loathing McVeigh, bombed a federal building in Oklahoma City in1995, killing 168 people. Fractious politics, anger over lockdowns and Mr Trump’s nudging encour- agement of groups such as the Proud Boys have made 2020 worrying, too. The mostly peaceful Black Lives Matter protests pro- Several new books assess the spread and peril of far-right ideas in America vided cover for both armed vigilantes and a ow seriously should anyone take few “accelerationists”, who hope assaults HStewart Rhodes and men like him? Weaponised Words. By Kurt Braddock. on police will spur a civil war. The fbi re- Speaking online soon after America’s pres- Cambridge University Press; 302 pages; ports that amid demonstrations in Minne- idential election, he said phalanxes of his $29.99 and £22.99 apolis following the death of George Floyd, armed comrades were waiting outside Oath Keepers. By Sam Jackson. Columbia a member of the Boogaloo Bois, a far-right Washington. Should Donald Trump be University Press; 240 pages; $35 and £27 group, used an ak-47 to shoot up a police ousted, they were ready for a “bloody fight”. Hate in the Homeland. By Cynthia station, which he then helped burn down. Mr Rhodes is fond of threatening lan- Miller-Idriss. Princeton University Press; 272 The “Boog flags are in the air”, he bragged. guage. In 2016 his group predicted wide- pages; $29.95 and £25 The same man received money from a fel- spread voter fraud followed by “catastroph- American Zealots. By Arie Perliger. low Boogalooer who, at roughly the same ic consequences”. It has urged its Columbia University Press; 232 pages; time, shot dead a policeman in California. members, who include ex-soldiers, to help $28 and £22 Such co-ordination is relatively—and patrol the Mexican border to deter and ha- thankfully—rare. As Arie Perliger of the rass would-be immigrants. attention, are outright racists and nativ- University of Massachusetts, Lowell, says, In his study of the Oath Keepers, as this ists, who oppose foreign influences and re- a big weakness of right-wing extremists outfit is known, Sam Jackson of the Univer- ligions other than Christianity. has been that they are fragmented into sity at Albany estimates that some 5,000 Mr Jackson’s is one of several new books many organisations, or act entirely alone, people may have signed up, while many to warn that America’s far right is now in what amounts to a “leaderless resis- more sympathise. These folk anticipate a more active than at any time since the early tance”. In “American Zealots”, a history of second American revolution and claim vi- 1990s. The Department of Homeland Secu- far-right violence over 150 years, Mr Per- olence is legitimate to resist what they call rity agrees, and in testimony to Congress liger finds that solitary attackers have usu- tyranny. In the landscape of America’s far this autumn the fbi’s director, Christopher ally been less deadly than those who con- right they fit into the category of patriot or Wray, called the far right—and white su- spire and act in concert. That helps explain militia groups, defined by their hostility to premacists in particular—America’s grav- why, despite having perhaps 12m adherents government (other than Mr Trump’s). In est domestic-terror threat. Last year, when or sympathisers in America in total, their the typography used by analysts, the other 48 people were killed in 16 attacks, was overall impact has been limited. categories, which usually command more their most lethal in a generation. A previ- There are grim exceptions, however, 1 The Economist December 12th 2020 Books & arts 83

2 such as the white supremacist who mur- ening strain of the far right. They often dered 11people at a synagogue in Pittsburgh have international links, illustrated by in 2018, or the fanatic who killed 23 shop- some 17,000 Westerners who went to fight pers in El Paso the following year. Technol- in the conflict in Ukraine. Most eagerly ogy, such as ever-more destructive weap- share conspiracy theories, especially the ons, is altering the calculus. And as in the anti-Semitic kind that, for example, vilify case of the Oath Keepers—who dislike George Soros, a financier. Muslims and foreigners as well as govern- Ms Miller-Idriss is most interested in ment—even without formal co-ordina- how newcomers are drawn in, including tion, ideas (and sometimes personnel) are through white-power music or mixed mar- shared across the far-right spectrum. tial arts, notably the “Confederation of Vol- Among groups whose avowed focus lies kisch Fight Clubs”. Some are swayed by a elsewhere, for instance, racism still tends lobby that promotes meat-eating and to be a factor. Perpetrators typically express claims the left “want to take away your unease about social change, often raging hamburgers”. Some teenage boys relish against people of a different race or, some- dark humour and internet memes, often times, a different religion or sexuality. Al- involving the Nazis (“baking pizzas” is a most all are white men, often poor and bad- preferred euphemism for the Holocaust). ly educated. Whereas the South was The sharing of taboo material is, for many, historically the epicentre of these crimes, the start of a path towards extremism. they now happen wherever sizeable num- She is struck by the neatly pressed trou- bers of African-Americans, Hispanics and sers and white polo shirts of young men Asians live. (Tellingly, the Oath Keepers, who marched in Charlottesville in 2017, Men and brothers the Three Percenters and other anti-gov- chanting “Jews will not replace us”. Others, ernment groups were founded as Barack whom she calls “Nipsters”, or Nazi hip- Herder, a German polymath, scorned the Obama became president.) sters, sell and wear expensive clothes em- notion of race itself, and saw all peoples as broidered with white-supremacist and related parts of “the same great painting”. From meat to murder other symbols. Such “hate clothing”, Ms In his epic survey of Enlightened minds, Like demographic anxieties, other factors Miller-Idriss says, makes the movement ideas and policies across Europe and the are perennial yet especially acute at the more palatable and appealing than did the Americas, Ritchie Robertson deems Hume- moment. Kathleen Belew of the University skinheads and neo-Nazis of the past. style prejudice “indefensible even in its of Chicago has traced how militia groups The real threat from the far right, her re- own time”. At least as typical of the era was grow when soldiers return home. The Ku search suggests, is not that groups such as the ceramic medallion produced by potter- Klux Klan flourished after previous wars, the Oath Keepers will launch large-scale philanthropist Josiah Wedgwood in 1787 to she notes. Deploying large numbers of political violence, let alone a new civil war. support the abolition of slavery, on which a troops to Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere The bigger worry is the “mainstreaming of chained African figure pleads: “Am I not a over two decades has contributed to an up- extremism”: the spread of hateful and viol- man and a brother?” As this masterly book tick in violent activity now. Ms Belew sug- ent attitudes so that ever-more people shows, Wedgwood’s brooch better encap- gests America is “heading to an uphill share and promote them. 7 sulates the mood of the age: its universal peak” in far-right ructions. principles, wide-ranging sympathy, social Rhetoric matters, too, especially as it activism—and commercial nous. spreads online. In “Weaponised Words”, Intellectual history The Enlightenment argued fiercely with Kurt Braddock of American University itself, in terms still in use. When today’s traces how the language of extremists at- Pleasure principles Westerners quarrel over race, empire, gen- tracts recruits. But, he says, the words of der, religion, science, the state or the mar- politicians may be just as dangerous. Mr ket, they often do so with weapons and tac- Braddock warns that Mr Trump and his al- tics honed three centuries ago. Or more: in lies have stirred up talk of resistance to a 1673 the maverick pastor François Poulain “deep state”; he was dismayed when Steve de la Barre wrote in “On the Equality of the Bannon, the president’s former adviser, Two Sexes” that “there is no such thing as talked on Twitter about decapitating Mr The Enlightenment. By Ritchie Robertson. sex”. Yet revisionists like to frame the hey- Wray. Some fantasists act on such words. In Allen Lane; 1,008 pages; £40. To be published day of the writers, scholars and progressive October the fbi arrested a group in Michi- in America by Harper in February; $45 rulers presented here as “the apotheosis of gan who spent months planning to kidnap hyper-rational calculation”. Supposedly, (and maybe kill) its governor, Gretchen n september the University of Edin- their influence disenchanted the world Whitmer, and others. They may have been Iburgh expunged the name of David and seeded a motley harvest of modern encouraged by Mr Trump’s disparagements Hume from an ugly teaching block. In re- evils from neoliberalism to Stalinism. of her and his call to “liberate” the state. sponse to a student petition, the university Mr Robertson begs to differ. A professor Similarly, in “Hate in the Homeland” agreed that the views of the 18th-century of German at Oxford, he is a champion of Cynthia Miller-Idriss describes how ideas thinker on the possible inferiority of non- the thinkers who promoted “the advance of once limited to extremist circles, such as white races, voiced in a tentative footnote reason, good sense and empirical enquiry” that of a “demographic replacement”— to his essay “Of National Characters”, against superstition and tyranny, from the whereby American citizens will be over- “rightly cause distress today”. Thomas Jef- late 17th century until the French revolu- run—are now promoted by mainstream ferson, a slave-owner, used almost identi- tion. Isaac Newton’s gravitation, Adam figures such as Tucker Carlson and Laura cal language. So did Immanuel Kant. Smith’s political economy, Jean-Jacques Ingraham of Fox News. She concentrates In contrast, many thinkers of the En- Rousseau’s cult of sentiment—indeed, on the estimated 75,000 active white su- lightenment argued forcefully for the “ba- Hume’s outrageous near-atheism—all fea- premacists who comprise the most threat- sic unity of humankind”. Johann Gottfried ture. But Mr Robertson lays special stress 1 84 Books & arts The Economist December 12th 2020

2 on the pursuit of happiness boldly invoked “Man is born to live in society,” affirmed thought big. They wrote long. The “Ency- in the American rebels’ Declaration of In- Denis Diderot, tireless instigator of the clopédie”, that “vast panorama of knowl- dependence. That led to the first purpose- French “Encyclopédie” (1751-72) and a ubiq- edge”, crams 72,000 articles into 17 vol- built Enlightenment state—“a very British uitous, uplifting presence in these pages. umes. The “Histoire des deux Indes” (1770), affair” in its intellectual foundations. “The Meanwhile, no priest or despot should cur- a monument to cosmopolitan idealism by ultimate end of man is happiness,” claimed tail the liberty of thought enjoyed by beings Diderot and Guillaume Raynal, which doc- Rousseau’s fellow-Genevan Jean-Jacques endowed with, in Kant’s words, “the uni- uments colonial crimes, runs to 4,353 Burlamaqui. By itself reason (which must versal religion of reason that dwells in ev- pages. Mr Robertson’s 1,000-page whopper anyway be “slave of the passions”, insisted ery ordinary person”. Slowly, grudging tol- imbibes something of the spirit of these Hume) would not ensure felicity. erance gave way to a warmer embrace of mammoth compendia. Not every reader So Enlightened happiness became a so- cultural diversity, given its theoretical will choose to plough straight through, cial task, and an art, pursued not just in the framework in Montesquieu’s pathbreaking from John Locke advocating “the enjoy- study but the laboratory, library, university, “Spirit of the Laws”. ment of pleasure” in 1690 to Hanif Ku- printing-house, coffee-shop and Congress. Enlightenment intellectuals not only reishi, a modern author, saluting Enlight-1 Johnson Eiffel power

The rights and wrongs of a French bid to ban accent discrimination n the early1790s French revolu- when in the capital or on television. that it would send a powerful signal: Itionaries commissioned a priest, Henri And French leaders face more than just there is no rational reason to withhold a Grégoire, to take a census of the lan- condescension. When Jean Castex, who job or a loan because of an applicant’s guages spoken in France. His findings has a notable south-western accent, be- accent. But a specific ban on accent were eventually titled a “Report on the came prime minister, reactions were discrimination may not be necessary. necessity and means to annihilate the predictably patronising. But such snob- Donald Dowling, a lawyer at Littler Men- patois and to universalise the use of the bery can have serious consequences, notes delson in New York, points out that, in French language”. Grégoire was a pio- Jonathan Kasstan of Westminster Univer- many countries, accent mockery is al- neering believer in racial equality, a fact sity. The political editor of France’s nation- ready used as evidence of other forms of that may seem to fit oddly with his pas- al broadcaster said Mr Castex’s pandemic illegal discrimination, such as the racial sion for eradicating linguistic diversity. guidance seemed less credible when deliv- kind. If you deride a Frenchman for an But to him, it made sense: French was the ered in his “patelin”, or village, accent. accent suggesting African origins, you language of liberation, and those with- In truth, some other countries are more are already breaking the law. In theory out it could be kept in ignorance. like France than they may think. Beyond that law could be extended to cover (say) How very French, their British cous- the bbc, it remains common in Britain to Breton origins without specifically add- ins might chuckle. The same people who hear public figures belittled for how they ing “accent” to protected categories. introduced the metric system and (un- speak. The liberal left indulges these prej- In the end, prejudice against accents successfully) tried to replace the Gregori- udices, too. Alastair Campbell, erstwhile betrays bad manners and small minds, an calendar can seem to have a mania for press secretary to Labour’s Tony Blair, and says more about the listener than top-down reform and standardisation. mocked the Conservative home secretary, about the put-upon speaker. But often it Now some Britons are chuckling to see Priti Patel, on Twitter: “I really would is itself a sign of poor education. As it this approach enlisted in the name of prefer it if we had a home secretary who happens, Mr Campbell’s swipe at Ms tolerance: on November 26th the Nation- could pronounce the G at the end of a Patel’s “g-dropping” was badly aimed. al Assembly passed a law forbidding word.” Here snobbery is dressed up as There is no actual “g” sound (as in “go”) at accent discrimination. If it gets through concern for correct enunciation. the end of words ending in -ing; rather, the French Senate, severe cases—say, But is a ban on such gibes the answer, there is a “velar nasal”, in which the denying someone a job because of how in France or elsewhere? The case for one is mouth is closed off at the back and air they speak—could result in three years in comes from the nose. And the -in’ pro- prison, or a fine of €45,000 ($55,000). nunciation he mocks (as in walkin’) was How very French. the “correct” one for centuries, remain- The country certainly has biases to ing prestigious in the early 1900s. amend. In America regional accents can If more of this were taught in British be heard in the highest office in the land schools, snobbery would seem irratio- (Donald Trump’s New York, George W. nal. French children might be told that Bush’s Texan). In Britain the bbc has Parisian French was a latecomer, as expanded the variety of accents heard on prestige dialects in France go. Provençal, its broadcasts. By contrast, regional from France’s south, was the language of accents in France are far tougher to find poetry when the speech of Paris’s Île-de- in high places. This makes it harder for France region was a trivial local patois. the French to associate intelligence and Speakers of prestigious accents are competence with anything but standard lucky that they do not face scorn for their Parisian. At best French politicians, like speech. But it is just that—luck, not some elsewhere, switch between their superior learning or care. A law may local accent when in the areas they repre- modify behaviour, but education is a sent and the standard Parisian kind better way to change attitudes.

86 Books & arts The Economist December 12th 2020

2 enment liberation from outmoded smeared floor, gunky paint tubes and mat- shared on his laptop on a flying visit to Lon- orthodoxies in 2019. Those who do will find ted brushes—that after his death the room don, opens with a meditation on a 19th- that Mr Robertson sweetens erudition with was painstakingly reconstructed (in 7,000 century painting of hills and a stream that humanity, much as his subjects did. pieces) in Dublin City Gallery. It was as if hung in his grandparents’ dining room. This Enlightenment celebrates what his environs could immerse visitors in Ba- Next come memories of a picnic with his Robert Burns, appalled by the suffering of a con’s thinking. parents, involving sardines, boiled eggs shot hare, called “the morality of the heart”. For his part, Mr Kentridge headed to a and a flask of coffee. The artist argues with Science and statecraft, which are amply building at the bottom of his garden and himself about small details of the spread, chronicled, yield to compassion, sympathy began a “natural history of the studio”, a as if he were a pair of squabbling siblings. and a self-critical outlook that welcomes long-cherished project about the alchemy Then he takes the viewer through a new experimentation and changes of mind. Not of art. “One can think of the studio as a kind landscape: the mine dumps that rise out of least among its lessons for today, “The En- of enlarged head,” he says. “Instead of ideas the flat veldt around Johannesburg, sym- lightenment” shows how its sages learned moving a few centimetres from one part of bols of apartheid’s political economy, and “to manage even Disputes with Civility”. 7 your memory to your active thinking, it’s the digs of zama-zamas, freelance miners the walk across the studio that has the who scratch out overlooked crumbs of same effect of bringing ideas together and gold. Whose land is this, he seems to ask, Contemporary art allowing something to emerge.” and who determines its history? His art-loving parents were both anti- All this is done with only charcoal and a The room where it apartheid lawyers and civil-rights activ- smudging cloth, a sequence of minutely ists; his father defended Nelson Mandela different drawings on one palimpsestic happens in the “treason trials” of 1956-61. As South sheet of paper that, once filmed, have the Africa moved from pariah state to rainbow immediacy of early animation. With edit- nation and beyond, Mr Kentridge sought ing by Walter Murch, an American who new ways to depict its contested history, worked on “The Godfather” and “Apoca- At 65, William Kentridge is about to environment, injustices and depredations. lypse Now”, the effect is layered and theat- unveil his most mesmerising work From his “Soho Chronicles” (short animat- rical. Mr Kentridge adds performance: im- ven as he first made his name with his ed films) to his productions of Alban Berg’s provised music by Kyle Shepherd, a pianist Echarcoal drawings in the 1970s and early-20th-century operas, “Wozzeck” and and composer from Cape Town, in which 1980s, William Kentridge resented the lim- “Lulu”, his themes have been memory, the piano strings are blocked with bits of itations of his craft. To the young artist he landscape, power, the study of the self and wood or bound in foil paper to create was then, working on his own in a studio in how individuals forge their fates. sounds that echo the axe and the bulldozer. South Africa felt stifling. So he branched The new project will comprise 12 films, Then he introduces a Zulu chorale by out, turning his drawings into filmed ani- each lasting 40 to 45 minutes, far longer Nhlanhla Mahlangu, a long-time collabo- mations that brought them to life, then and more imaginative than any he has rator, about being forced off the land. For into performances with music and move- made before. So far, he has completed four. Mr Kentridge, sound can convey memory, ment, and eventually into complex multi- Using an old 16mm Bolex on a tripod, he and the essence of South Africa’s land- media installations. He produced operas films himself in conversation with him- scape, as much as visual imagery. for the Salzburg Festival and the Metropol- self, or with two other versions of himself, In 2022 he will emulate Ai Weiwei and itan Opera in New York. unpicking the artistic process. He can be Anselm Kiefer and take over the Royal What he loved most was collaborating— the artist-as-maker, clutching a chunk of Academy in London for a retrospective of with film-makers, theatre companies, mu- charcoal and sketching at high speed like a his career. He hopes all his new films, col- sicians. In 2016 he took over the building conductor; or the artist-as-critic, assessing lectively to be called “Studio Life”, will be next to his big industrial studio in down- his creation from afar. “Suddenly”, he says, shown together. Even now, though, he sees town Johannesburg and created an incuba- “you’re a very different person.” himself as merely the initiator of his art. tor for performers called the Centre for the Combined with snapshots of his own His collaborators turn it into something Less Good Idea. The name came from a past, and of South Africa’s, this dialogue is new and, with their own memories and Tswana proverb about the value of working mesmerising. The first film, which he connections, so do his audience. 7 things out together—and how the first, fiz- ziest brainwave may in the end prove less productive than a humbler idea. Most evenings, when he is in town, Mr Kentridge can be found at the centre, guid- ing, rehearsing and experimenting with young performers. Six months ago, though, after he, his wife and numerous colleagues caught covid-19, he was forced to retreat into making art on his own. The role that solitary labour plays in creativity has long fascinated artists and historians. Lucio Fontana, an Italian-Ar- gentine conceptual artist famous for his “slashed” canvases, allowed a photogra- pher to shoot him at work, but only until the knife was poised to touch the canvas; then Fontana insisted on being completely alone. The studio, for him, was a sacred space. Such was the chaos and energy of Francis Bacon’s studio in London—with its The alchemy of the studio Courses 87

Tenders

Property 88 Economic & ﬁnancial indicators The Economist December 12th 2020

Economic data

Gross domestic product Consumer prices Unemployment Current-account Budget Interest rates Currency units % change on year ago % change on year ago rate balance balance 10-yr gov't bonds change on per $ % change latest quarter* 2020† latest 2020† % % of GDP, 2020† % of GDP, 2020† latest,% year ago, bp Dec 9th on year ago United States -2.9 Q3 33.1 -3.8 1.2 Oct 1.2 6.7 Nov -2.3 -14.9 0.9 -88.0 - China 4.9 Q3 11.2 1.8 -0.5 Nov 2.9 4.2 Q3§ 1.7 -5.6 3.1 §§ 14.0 6.54 7.7 Japan -5.7 Q3 22.9 -5.3 -0.4 Oct 0.1 3.1 Oct 2.6 -11.3 nil -8.0 104 4.2 Britain -9.6 Q3 78.0 -11.3 0.7 Oct 1.0 4.8 Aug†† -1.5 -19.4 0.4 -42.0 0.75 1.3 Canada -5.2 Q3 40.5 -5.8 0.7 Oct 0.7 8.5 Nov -2.1 -13.4 0.8 -84.0 1.28 3.1 Euro area -4.3 Q3 60.0 -8.0 -0.3 Nov 0.3 8.4 Oct 2.2 -9.1 -0.6 -31.0 0.83 8.4 Austria -4.0 Q3 54.6 -6.7 1.3 Oct 1.1 5.4 Oct 1.4 -8.0 -0.5 -39.0 0.83 8.4 Belgium -4.5 Q3 54.2 -7.9 0.5 Nov 0.4 5.1 Oct -1.1 -9.7 -0.4 -38.0 0.83 8.4 France -3.9 Q3 98.3 -9.5 0.2 Nov 0.5 8.6 Oct -1.9 -10.7 -0.3 -37.0 0.83 8.4 Germany -4.0 Q3 38.5 -5.4 -0.3 Nov 0.4 4.5 Oct 6.9 -7.0 -0.6 -31.0 0.83 8.4 Greece -9.6 Q3 9.5 -9.0 -1.8 Oct -1.4 16.8 Aug -4.0 -8.2 0.6 -82.0 0.83 8.4 Italy -5.0 Q3 80.4 -9.1 -0.2 Nov -0.1 9.8 Oct 2.6 -11.0 0.5 -86.0 0.83 8.4 Netherlands -2.5 Q3 34.5 -6.0 0.8 Nov 1.1 3.8 Mar 7.0 -6.0 -0.6 -43.0 0.83 8.4 Spain -8.7 Q3 85.5 -12.7 -0.8 Nov -0.3 16.2 Oct 0.5 -12.3 nil -44.0 0.83 8.4 Czech Republic -5.2 Q3 30.7 -7.0 2.9 Oct 3.2 2.9 Oct‡ -0.5 -7.7 1.3 -17.0 21.8 5.9 Denmark -4.2 Q3 21.1 -5.0 0.4 Oct 0.4 4.6 Oct 9.0 -4.8 -0.5 -22.0 6.16 9.6 Norway -0.2 Q3 19.7 -1.7 1.7 Oct 1.4 5.2 Sep‡‡ 3.2 -1.3 0.9 -58.0 8.82 3.6 Poland -1.8 Q3 35.5 -3.4 3.0 Nov 3.4 6.1 Oct§ 2.6 -7.9 1.4 -60.0 3.67 5.5 Russia -3.6 Q3 na -3.8 4.4 Nov 3.3 6.3 Oct§ 1.9 -4.3 6.1 -43.0 73.8 -13.7 Sweden -2.7 Q3 21.2 -3.2 0.3 Oct 0.4 7.8 Oct§ 4.2 -3.6 nil -7.0 8.49 12.3 Switzerland -1.6 Q3 31.9 -3.0 -0.7 Nov -0.9 3.4 Nov 9.2 -3.7 -0.5 6.0 0.89 11.2 Turkey 6.7 Q3 na -3.6 14.0 Nov 12.1 13.2 Aug§ -4.5 -5.1 12.8 64.0 7.82 -25.7 Australia -3.8 Q3 14.0 -4.1 0.7 Q3 0.7 7.0 Oct 0.8 -7.9 1.0 -12.0 1.34 9.0 Hong Kong -3.5 Q3 11.8 -5.6 -0.1 Oct 0.4 6.4 Oct‡‡ 5.6 -6.0 0.8 -88.0 7.75 1.0 India -7.5 Q3 125 -9.8 7.6 Oct 6.5 6.5 Nov 0.7 -7.8 5.9 -74.0 73.6 -3.4 Indonesia -3.5 Q3 na -2.2 1.6 Nov 2.0 7.1 Q3§ -1.4 -7.1 6.2 -91.0 14,110 -0.7 Malaysia -2.7 Q3 na -5.3 -1.5 Oct -1.1 4.6 Sep§ 4.8 -7.2 2.8 -68.0 4.06 2.5 Pakistan 0.5 2020** na -2.8 8.3 Nov 9.8 5.8 2018 -0.4 -8.0 9.9 ††† -133 160 -3.4 Philippines -11.5 Q3 36.0 -9.3 3.3 Nov 2.6 8.7 Q4§ 0.5 -7.7 3.1 -154 48.1 5.7 Singapore -5.8 Q3 42.3 -6.0 -0.2 Oct -0.3 3.6 Q3 17.8 -13.9 0.9 -81.0 1.34 1.5 South Korea -1.1 Q3 8.8 -1.1 0.6 Nov 0.5 3.7 Oct§ 3.9 -5.6 1.7 -1.0 1,085 9.7 Taiwan 3.9 Q3 16.6 2.4 0.1 Nov -0.3 3.8 Oct 13.7 -1.5 0.3 -35.0 28.2 8.0 Thailand -6.4 Q3 28.8 -5.9 -0.4 Nov -0.8 2.1 Oct§ 3.1 -6.4 1.2 -27.0 30.0 0.9 Argentina -19.1 Q2 -50.7 -11.3 37.2 Oct‡ 42.0 13.1 Q2§ 2.4 -9.2 na -464 82.0 -26.9 Brazil -3.9 Q3 34.6 -5.2 4.3 Nov 3.1 14.6 Sep§‡‡ -0.4 -15.9 2.0 -257 5.13 -19.1 Chile -9.1 Q3 22.6 -5.9 2.7 Nov 3.1 11.6 Oct§‡‡ 1.7 -8.2 2.9 -76.0 739 4.3 Colombia -9.5 Q3 39.6 -7.3 1.5 Nov 2.6 14.7 Oct§ -4.6 -8.8 4.9 -113 3,458 -1.2 Mexico -8.6 Q3 58.0 -9.0 3.3 Nov 3.5 3.3 Mar 1.7 -5.3 5.3 -159 19.8 -2.9 Peru -9.4 Q3 187 -12.0 2.1 Nov 1.8 15.7 Oct§ -0.1 -8.0 3.8 -40.0 3.60 -6.1 Egypt -1.7 Q2 na 3.6 4.6 Oct 4.9 7.3 Q3§ -3.3 -8.8 na nil 15.7 2.7 Israel -1.9 Q3 37.9 -4.0 -0.8 Oct -0.6 4.7 Oct 3.8 -11.1 0.9 1.0 3.25 6.8 Saudi Arabia 0.3 2019 na -4.2 5.8 Oct 3.5 9.0 Q2 -3.9 -10.9 na nil 3.75 nil South Africa -6.0 Q3 66.1 -7.7 3.2 Nov 3.3 30.8 Q3§ -2.1 -16.0 8.9 57.0 15.0 -2.1 Source: Haver Analytics. *% change on previous quarter, annual rate. †The Economist Intelligence Unit estimate/forecast. §Not seasonally adjusted. ‡New series. **Year ending June. ††Latest 3 months. ‡‡3-month moving average. §§5-year yield. †††Dollar-denominated bonds.

Markets Commodities % change on: % change on: The Economist commodity-price index Index one Dec 31st index one Dec 31st % change on In local currency Dec 9th week 2019 Dec 9th week 2019 2015=100 Dec 1st Dec 8th* month year United States S&P 500 3,672.8 0.1 13.7 Pakistan KSE 42,204.0 0.4 3.6 Dollar Index United States NAScomp 12,339.0 -0.1 37.5 Singapore STI 2,843.1 1.1 -11.8 All Items 139.2 143.5 8.5 26.3 China Shanghai Comp 3,372.0 -2.2 10.6 South Korea KOSPI 2,755.5 3.0 25.4 Food 111.7 109.8 nil 10.0 China Shenzhen Comp 2,250.8 -1.7 30.6 Taiwan TWI 14,390.1 2.9 19.9 Industrials Japan Nikkei 225 26,817.9 0.1 13.4 Thailand SET 1,482.7 4.6 -6.2 All 165.0 174.9 14.1 38.3 Japan Topix 1,779.4 0.3 3.4 Argentina MERV 51,956.9 -6.0 24.7 Non-food agriculturals 116.1 118.0 8.5 17.9 Britain FTSE 100 6,564.3 1.6 -13.0 Brazil BVSP 113,001.2 1.0 -2.3 Metals 179.5 191.8 15.2 42.8 Canada S&P TSX 17,559.9 1.2 2.9 Mexico IPC 42,737.0 -2.1 -1.8 Sterling Index Euro area EURO STOXX 50 3,529.0 0.2 -5.8 Egypt EGX 30 11,018.1 nil -21.1 All items 159.0 163.9 7.6 24.5 France CAC 40 5,546.8 -0.6 -7.2 Israel TA-125 1,531.1 3.3 -5.3 Germany DAX* 13,340.3 0.2 0.7 Saudi Arabia Tadawul 8,660.2 -0.4 3.2 Euro Index Italy FTSE/MIB 21,969.6 nil -6.5 South Africa JSE AS 59,291.8 1.7 3.9 All items 128.3 131.4 5.9 15.6 Netherlands AEX 619.7 1.4 2.5 World, dev'd MSCI 2,627.5 0.5 11.4 Gold Spain IBEX 35 8,235.3 0.2 -13.8 Emerging markets MSCI 1,255.9 2.2 12.7 $ per oz 1,810.1 1,867.2 -0.9 27.6 Poland WIG 56,632.7 4.9 -2.1 Brent Russia RTS, $ terms 1,372.5 2.8 -11.4 $ per barrel 47.5 49.0 12.1 -24.1 Switzerland SMI 10,430.0 -0.1 -1.8 US corporate bonds, spread over Treasuries Turkey BIST 1,350.3 1.9 18.0 Dec 31st Sources: Bloomberg; CME Group; Cotlook; Reﬁnitiv Datastream; Australia All Ord. 6,965.4 2.3 2.4 Basis points latest 2019 Fastmarkets; FT; ICCO; ICO; ISO; Live Rice Index; LME; NZ Wool Services; Thompson Lloyd & Ewart; Urner Barry; WSJ. *Provisional. Hong Kong Hang Seng 26,502.8 -0.1 -6.0 Investment grade 140 141 India BSE 46,103.5 3.3 11.8 High-yield 438 449 Indonesia IDX 5,944.4 2.2 -5.6 Sources: Reﬁnitiv Datastream; Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income For more countries and additional data, visit Malaysia KLSE 1,646.5 3.0 3.6 Research. *Total return index. Economist.com/indicators Graphic detail Economic research The Economist December 12th 2020 89

→ Big economies get the most research. But economists prioritise countries with abundant data, and ignore petro-states

Share of mentions* in economics papers v GDP Mentions, Mentions* relative to expected Papers with abstracts available in English, 1990-2019, log scale % of total From average GDP, 1990-2019 100 Fewer Expected More Average population 4x 3x 2x 1x 2x 3x 4x 1990-2019, m United No data States 550500 10 Britain India China

Japan South Africa Turkey Germany Pakistan Brazil 1 Russia Slovenia ↑ More than Indonesia Kenya expected Belgium Egypt Malawi Saudi Arabia 0.1 Predictors of a country’s share of mentions* Change in share of mentions from one-standard-deviation Fiji Venezuela increase in variable, % points Algeria ↓ Fewer than Somalia Angola expected -0.5 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

Tonga Libya 0.01 GDP Turkmenistan ↑ GDP is the strongest Grenada Data availability predictor of a country’s Bahamas share of research Tuvalu English is an official language Andorra 0.001 Marshall Islands Students in the Monaco United States d Official language e ct e p San Marino Ease of doing x Includes English E business 0.0001 95% confidence Oil rents as 10m 100m 1bn 10bn 100bn 1trn 10trn 100trn % of GDP Average GDP, $†, 1990-2019 Sources: American Economic Association; World Bank; Encyclopedia Britannica; Institute of International Education; government websites *Articles mainly about a country †2020 prices

tracks papers with abstracts in English, the one of EconLit’s highest papers-to-gdp ra- Starving for field’s lingua franca, causing it to under- tios, stem from universities in Maribor and represent studies intended for non-Anglo- Ljubljana that churn out articles in English. knowledge phone audiences. However, EconLit does To adjust for such factors, we built a sta- include 110,000 papers in other languages tistical model to predict a country’s share with abstracts translated into English. of studies in each year. gdp remained the By far, the best predictor of the amount most important variable, though it mat- Economists look at more than gdp of research conducted on a country was its tered less in oil-rich states. The next-best when choosing countries to study gdp. However, economic size leaves many predictors of popularity in the Anglophone conomic research can reverberate be- cases unexplained. Kenya gets three times database were listing English as an official Eyond the ivory tower. In 2003 a study of more articles than its gdp suggests; Algeria language and sending lots of students to Kenyan schools found that treating intesti- has one-quarter as many as expected. American universities (boosting places nal worms improved attendance. After Such outliers often cluster in research like China). Variables that capture data similar work confirmed the policy’s bene- “oases” or “deserts”. Obie Porteous of Mid- availability, such as the number of World fits, one author, Michael Kremer, founded dlebury College notes that studies of Africa Development Indicators a country pub- an ngo that treats 280m children a year. are disproportionately concentrated in the lishes, also had meaningful effects. Mr Kremer’s work was unusually im- continent’s south and east. Expanding this These factors improved the model a lot. pactful, but reflects a pattern of research analysis worldwide, we find that the Mid- They explained most of the difference be- improving policy. One study found that dle East and parts of Latin America get rela- tween Kenya and Algeria, for example. telling Brazilian mayors about the gains tively few papers with English abstracts. After incorporating them, we found that a from sending reminder letters to taxpayers China and Russia also seem under-studied. country’s spending on universities, form sharply increased their chances of doing In contrast, South Asia and some re- of government and involvement in armed so. Yet many similar countries attract far gions in eastern Europe were oases. Like conflicts did not yield additional accuracy. fewer studies. This can leave policymakers much of southern and eastern Africa, India For policymakers in research deserts fumbling in the dark (see Free exchange). and Pakistan were colonised by Britain. To- who want academic support, that is good To measure this problem, we turned to day, many authors of articles about them news. In the short term, they can do little to EconLit, a database curated by the Ameri- work in Britain or America. Meanwhile, boost national gdp significantly. But being can Economic Association with 910,000 European research gluts seem locally dri- more forthcoming with data and fostering journal articles from 1990-2019. It only ven. Lots of studies on Slovenia, which has links with Western scholars should help. 7 90 Obituary Chuck Yeager The Economist December 12th 2020

rier might rip the aircraft apart. The least he expected was something like a bump in the road, to show he’d done it: strong proof for the friendly rivals back at base. Instead, at around 700mph (1,126kph) he felt nothing particular, just a bit of resistance, like poking his finger through Jell-O. He got the Collier trophy for it, a nice statuette on a plinth, and the family went to the White House to collect it (his father, a staunch Republican, refused to shake Har- ry Truman’s hand). But it was quite a let-down. He had to go much faster to get the effects he had been half- anticipating. That happened in December 1953, after a few flights approaching Mach 2, twice the speed of sound. He was warned that if he went any faster his X-1A aircraft might “go divergent”. It did. At 74,700 feet (22,800 metres), and at 2.44 Mach speed, it began to roll uncontrollably, then spin upside down. Completely disoriented, battered by plus and minus g-loads, he remembered his helmet cracking the inner canopy, and not a lot else. At last the plane got upright and, at 25,000 feet, he popped it out of the spin. He had dropped 50,000 feet in 70 seconds. Back in radio contact, he gasped out: “Christ!…Boy, I’m not doing that any more.” It was odd enough that he was in the air anyway. As a boy, running the hills or sitting with his grandfather learning to fish, he never got near a plane, except to see one in the sky. He had no ambitions that way and, with only high school behind him, not enough education. He enlisted in the air force in 1941as a mechanic, earth- bound and easy, because he had already tinkered for years with engines, water-pumps and his father’s cable tools for drilling for natural gas. He took up flight training mostly because pilots had Mechanic to hero beautiful girls on their arms, and hands that weren’t dirty. But he became the most decorated pilot in America. In the same strange sort of reversal, he started out with no interest in space and ended up training astronauts. In the 1950s, when space was mentioned, he would dismiss it as a place where he wouldn’t be flying, but sitting in a thing controlled by someone General Charles (Chuck) Yeager, test pilot and the first to else. No doubt the views were pretty, but he couldn’t have cared break the sound barrier, died on December 7th, aged 97 less. And anyway, he had no degree. His ideas changed as the gov- f a flock of grouse flew across his path when he was out hunt- ernment began to press the space programme and America, in his Iing, Chuck Yeager knew what would happen. He would get his view, fell far behind the Soviets in developing space technology. slingshot, pick up some stones, and let fly. With his 20/10 vision in The usaf Aerospace Research Pilot School at Muroc, now Edwards both eyes, he could see to infinity; in five minutes two or three air force base, which he ran from 1962, offered a state-of-the-art grouse would be dead, hit square in the head. When challenged to simulator that covered every stage of a space flight, from take-off target-shoot at a paper plate nailed to a tree, he could aim to hit the to landing. Applicants swarmed in, and a bare 1% made it, since nail. He had practised those skills in the woods of West Virginia even fine grades on paper cut little ice with him. Astronauts, like until they were second nature. pilots, had to know the machinery they were riding in, how to fix it In the second world war, flying over France in P-51s, he once and how to get back safely, not rely on some bunch of engineers. more saw his prey from a long way off and stayed up-sun, so the Like him, they basically had to be mechanics. Germans wouldn’t spot him. Then he shifted to be down-sun, be- Over the years he became well-known, but it was an intermit- hind them. Once he picked off five Me109s in a day, getting into a tent sort of fame. After the war he was celebrated as West Virginia’s big old hairy dogfight, buzzing, diving, shooting, lots of high-gs, leading ace. After breaking Mach in 1947, hardly a month passed becoming an ace right there. He knew how his plane should be- without some magazine running an article about him. In the 1960s, have, how all the hardware worked, how the ejector seat and para- when he was running the research-pilot school, he once did 163 chute would save him: knew it as a mechanic, which was his train- talks in a year. He was a draw at any air show and at the Indy 500, ing. Armed with that knowledge, nothing much could surprise where several times he opened proceedings in the pace car, gun- him. He was in firm control of what was right around him, and ning it with joy. Still, people didn’t match the name to the face, he what he couldn’t control, such as the enemy, or the outcome, or thought, until he did the acDelco car-parts commercial on tv; and death, was not worth worrying about. He was too busy. then when, in 1983, his Mach exploits appeared on cinema screens But when on October 14th 1947 he was dropped in the Bell X-1, a in “The Right Stuff”, the film of Tom Wolfe’s book about the band of rocket-powered experimental plane, from the bomb bay of a B-29, pilots. He had helped on the book, going through crash reports, he had no idea what lay ahead. Fun, probably, as he loved the X-1, which Wolfe kept getting wrong. As for the film, it was just enter- and in his post-war test-pilot job he preferred tactical flying that tainment, pretty much fiction, from Sam Shepard’s dark hand- focused on one aircraft, rather than a dozen different planes every some face to all those blue skies outside the windows. week. It was more like combat, and the band of pilots he now be- So when he was asked, as he was annoyingly often, whether he longed to, at Muroc air force base in California, were ex-warriors had the “right stuff”, as a test pilot and generally, he gave a down- who felt the same way. “Glamorous Glennis” was painted on the to-earth answer. Rather than being “the most righteous”, with “the bright orange fuselage in tribute to his wife—the wife with whom moxie, the reflexes, the experience, the coolness, to pull it back in he’d had a horseback race two nights before, busting a couple of the last yawning moment”, as Wolfe wrote, he just knew all about ribs when his horse flipped him, which still hurt like hell. his planes, and had worked his tail off learning it. A mechanic’s an- The engineers back at base feared that breaching the sound bar- swer which, as ever, hit the nail on the head. 7 The ght for equality.

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