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Fiona Chen's Michigan Expert Report
EXPERT REPORT IT FRAUD INVESTIGATION NEEDED: MICHIGAN BIDEN VOTES NEED TO BE REDUCED AND REVERSED BY 138,399 AND CHECKED FOR 49,779 VOTE SURGE AT 3:50 AM 11/4/2020 By Fiona Chen, MPA, Ph.D., CPA, ABV, CFF, CITP Fiona Chen Consulting Company: A Tax & Forensic Accounting Firm 275 Stonegate Road, Ste M Algonquin, IL 60102 December 14, 2020 1 IT FRAUD INVESTIGATION NEEDED: MICHIGAN BIDEN VOTES NEED TO BE REDUCED AND REVERSED BY 138,399 AND CHECKED FOR 49,779 VOTE SURGE AT 3:50 AM 11/4/2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In Michigan, screenshot evidence identified a surge vote increase for Biden of 138,339 votes at 6:31 am on 11/4/2020. After online vote watchers questioned the surge vote for Biden only, Michigan state officials and news reports admitted this number increase was a mistake which should not have happened. The vote number is supposedly to have been corrected at the Shiawassee County level. This increased number of 138,339 was never reversed at the State summary level. Biden based on this increased number continued at the state level to have had accumulative 154,188 votes higher than Trump’s at the end. The 154,188 Biden votes should be reduced by 138,339 to be 15,849. Furthermore, another similar surge vote for Biden was reported happening at 3:50 am of 11/4/2020 for 49,779. The State has not shown the detailed listing of that vote combinations, 54,497 for Biden and 4,718 for Trump. This number needs to be investigated. -
Forecasting the 2020 US Elections with Decision Desk HQ: Methodology for Modern American Electoral Dynamics
Harvard Data Science Review • Issue 2.4, Fall 2020 Forecasting the 2020 US Elections with Decision Desk HQ: Methodology for Modern American Electoral Dynamics Kiel Williams, Mukul Ram, Matthew Shor, Sreevani Jarugula, Dan DeRemigi, Alex Alduncin, Scott Tranter Published on: Oct 27, 2020 DOI: 10.1162/99608f92.9663befd License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC-BY 4.0) Forecasting the 2020 US Elections with Decision Desk HQ: Methodology for Modern American Harvard Data Science Review • Issue 2.4, Fall 2020 Electoral Dynamics ABSTRACT Øptimus has constructed models to predict the outcomes of the 2020 presidential and congressional general elections in collaboration with Decision Desk HQ. The model is an iteration from its 2018 U.S. Congressional model designed to predict the outcome of the election as if it were held today. The congressional model predicts the probability of a Republican (GOP) victory in individual House and Senate elections, as well as the number of aggregate seats expected to be won by each party (to predict partisan control of each chamber). The presidential model uses a similar framework to estimate vote shares and probabilities of victory for each major party candidate in each of the states.1 These estimates are then used to proxy electoral college predictions that determine who is elected as the next President of the United States. We provide a survey of features, feature engineering techniques, models, and ensembling techniques. We also provide some empirical results. Keywords: elections, political science, government, machine learning Media Summary We start with a data set of 200+ base features spanning economic indicators, political environment measures (both national and local), candidate traits, campaign finance reports, and engineered variables designed to draw context-specific information into the model. -
Eta Y Iota En Guatemala
Evaluación de los efectos e impactos de las depresiones tropicales Eta y Iota en Guatemala México Belice Petén Huehuetenango Guatemala Quiché Alta Verapaz Izabal Baja Verapaz San Marcos Zacapa Quetzaltenango Chiquimula Honduras Guatemala Sololá Suchitepéquez Jutiapa Escuintla El Salvador Nicaragua Gracias por su interés en esta publicación de la CEPAL Publicaciones de la CEPAL Si desea recibir información oportuna sobre nuestros productos editoriales y actividades, le invitamos a registrarse. Podrá definir sus áreas de interés y acceder a nuestros productos en otros formatos. www.cepal.org/es/publications Publicaciones www.cepal.org/apps Evaluación de los efectos e impactos de las depresiones tropicales Eta y Iota en Guatemala Este documento fue coordinado por Omar D. Bello, Oficial de Asuntos Económicos de la Oficina de la Secretaría de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), y Leda Peralta, Oficial de Asuntos Económicos de la Unidad de Comercio Internacional e Industria de la sede subregional de la CEPAL en México, en el marco de las actividades del Programa Ordinario de Cooperación Técnica implementado por la CEPAL. Fue preparado por Álvaro Monett, Asesor Regional en Gestión de Información Geoespacial de la División de Estadísticas de la CEPAL, y Juan Carlos Rivas y Jesús López, Oficiales de Asuntos Económicos de la Unidad de Desarrollo Económico de la sede subregional de la CEPAL en México. Participaron en su elaboración los siguientes consultores de la CEPAL: Raffaella Anilio, Horacio Castellaro, Carlos Espiga, Adrián Flores, Hugo Hernández, Francisco Ibarra, Sebastián Moya, María Eugenia Rodríguez y Santiago Salvador, así como los siguientes funcionarios del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID): Ginés Suárez, Omar Samayoa y Renato Vargas, y los siguientes funcionarios del Banco Mundial: Osmar Velasco, Ivonne Jaimes, Doris Souza, Juan Carlos Cárdenas y Mariano González. -
1 a Hyperactive End to the Atlantic Hurricane Season: October–November 2020
1 A Hyperactive End to the Atlantic Hurricane Season: October–November 2020 2 3 Philip J. Klotzbach* 4 Department of Atmospheric Science 5 Colorado State University 6 Fort Collins CO 80523 7 8 Kimberly M. Wood# 9 Department of Geosciences 10 Mississippi State University 11 Mississippi State MS 39762 12 13 Michael M. Bell 14 Department of Atmospheric Science 15 Colorado State University 16 Fort Collins CO 80523 17 1 18 Eric S. Blake 19 National Hurricane Center 1 Early Online Release: This preliminary version has been accepted for publication in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, may be fully cited, and has been assigned DOI 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0312.1. The final typeset copyedited article will replace the EOR at the above DOI when it is published. © 2021 American Meteorological Society Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/26/21 05:03 AM UTC 20 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 21 Miami FL 33165 22 23 Steven G. Bowen 24 Aon 25 Chicago IL 60601 26 27 Louis-Philippe Caron 28 Ouranos 29 Montreal Canada H3A 1B9 30 31 Barcelona Supercomputing Center 32 Barcelona Spain 08034 33 34 Jennifer M. Collins 35 School of Geosciences 36 University of South Florida 37 Tampa FL 33620 38 2 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/26/21 05:03 AM UTC Accepted for publication in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0312.1. 39 Ethan J. Gibney 40 UCAR/Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science 41 San Diego, CA 92127 42 43 Carl J. Schreck III 44 North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System 45 Studies (CISESS) 46 North Carolina State University 47 Asheville NC 28801 48 49 Ryan E. -
Preparing Boats, Marinas for Hurricanes
THE BOATER'S GUIDE TO PREPARING BOATS & MARINAS FOR HURRICANES Boat owners from Maine to Texas have number of storm-free years, people in the marina when a hurricane threatens. reason to become edgy in the late summer some of the vulnerable areas will be less Ask the marina manager what hurricane and fall: Each year, on average, two hurri- wary of a storm’s potential fury. But to plan the marina has in place. canes will come ashore somewhere along residents of North Carolina and Virginia, crippled by Isabel in 2003, and people in the Gulf or Atlantic coast, destroying Planning where your boat will best survive Florida, ravaged from four giant storms homes, sinking boats, and turning people’s a storm, and what protective steps you in 2004, the hurricane threat won’t soon lives topsy-turvy for weeks, or even need to take when a hurricane threatens, be forgotten. months. This year, who knows? Florida is should begin before hurricane season. The struck most often, but every coastal state BoatU.S. Marine Insurance claim files is a potential target. Developing a Plan have shown that the probability of damage can be reduced considerably by choosing Experts predict that in the next 20 years If you own a boat, the first step in devel- the most storm-worthy location possible there will be much more hurricane oping a preparation plan is to review and having your plan ready long before a activity than has been seen in the past your dock contract for language that may hurricane warning is posted. -
Nicaragua: Hurricanes Eta and Iota Nicaragua: Hurricanes Eta and Iota
Emergency Plan of Action (EPoA) Nicaragua: Hurricanes Eta and Iota Nicaragua: Hurricanes Eta and Iota Emergency Appeal N° MDR43007 Glide N°: TC-2020-000218-NIC Date of issue: 22 December 2020 Emergency Appeal launch: Expected timeframe: 18 months 8 November 2020 Expected end date: 31 May 2022 IFRC Category allocated to the of the disaster or crisis: Orange IFRC funding requirements: 5,013,270 Swiss francs (CHF) National Society Response Plan funding requirements: 14,000,000 American dollars (USD) DREF allocated: 440,000 CHF Number of exposed people: Over 3 million Number of people to be This EPoA: 42,500 people (8,500 people assisted families) Total NS response: 60,000 people (12,000 families) Municipalities affected: 56 Regions targeted: Municipalities of Puerto Cabezas, Waspam, and Prinzapolka in the North Atlantic Region, and Jinotega, Rivas, Bluefields and Managua regions. Host National Societies presence: The Nicaraguan Red Cross has 1500 volunteers activated for the NS response in the whole country in addition to 500 staff in 32 branches, active particularly in Puerto Cabezas and Bonanza, in the Caribe Norte region. Red Cross Red Crescent Movement partners actively involved in the operation: International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC), International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), Spanish Red Cross (SRC) and Italian Red Cross (IRC) Other partner organizations actively involved in the operation: National System for the Prevention, Mitigation of, and Attention to Disasters (SINAPRED),Ministry of Health (MINSA), World Vision, Nestle, Walmart, Fideicomiso Juntos Vamos a Superarlo, American Nicaraguan Foundation (ANF), Walmart Foundation (Banco de Alimentos), World Food Program, Banpro, Aceitera de Nicaragua. -
HURRICANE ETA & IOTA # 150 #125 1,6 # 116 1,2,4 # >441K1,2,3,4,5
HURRICANE ETA & IOTA Situation Report No. 6 November 16– 7pm HIGHLIGHTS SITUATION IN NUMBERS • Honduras reports 74 deaths, 8 people missing and 55,435 people in shelters. 37 out of 71 h ealth facilities in Cortes have reported damage, of which: more than 27 health facilities are inoperative, 10 health facilities report total loss of cold chain equipment and vaccines Affected and several report lack of access to drinking water and electricity, and lack of health personnel. Furthermore, most dams throughout the country are at 100% capacity, while rains continue in different regions of the country. # • Guatemala reports 53 deaths, 96 people missing and 18,055 people in 149 shelters. 72 >6.5M1,2,3,4,5 health facilities have reported damage: 33 in Alta Verapaz (including 1 hospital destroyed), 13 in Izabal and 26 in Quiche. Furthermore, 80 of 112 official shelters in Alta Verapaz, Izabal and Quiche have been assessed and several report poor sanitary conditions as well as cases of acute respiratory infections, foodborne diseases, skin infections and chronic diseases (see chart page 3). Deaths • Belize reports 2 health facilities closed due to lack of access as a result of flooding, and 1,2,34,5 1 health facility operating in emergency mode (no outpatient services available). # 150 • Costa Rica reports 2 deaths and 327 people in 30 shelters. Around 60,000 people remain without access to drinking water and the government is mobilizing water trucks to the Damaged affected population. • Panama reports 19 deaths,12 people missing and 2,424 people in 32 shelters. #125 1,6 • El Salvador reports 2 deaths and 399 people in 13 shelters. -
Hurricane Eta & Iota
HURRICANE ETA & IOTA Situation Report No. 9 December 2– 6pm HIGHLIGHTS SITUATION IN NUMBERS • Honduras: 414 health facilities have reported damage, of which, 120 health facilities are reported inoperative, 27 health facilities are collapsed and 12 report 2 hurricanes damage to cold chain equipment. Additionally, 99 health facilities report health Impacted the Central America personnel directly affected, complicating the continuity of health services. region in November: Eta and Approximately 2 million people have limited or no access to health services due to Iota damage to the health services network, of which at least 500,000 have health needs. Furthermore, around 94,000 people remain in shelters, decreasing 81,000 since last week. Affected • Guatemala: 206 health facilities have reported damage, including: 79 in Alta Verapaz, 13 in Izabal, 36 in Quiche, 65 in Huehuetenango and 13 in Peten. No # major health facility has reported damages. Furthermore, around 30,000 people remain in 317 shelters, decreasing 2,000 since last week. It is estimated the health >9M1,2,3,4,5,6 sector requires at least USD$ 2 million to restore the operational functions of its service network in the five most affected departments (Alta Verapaz, Quiché, Petén, Izabal and Huehuetenango). • Colombia: Providencia reports 1 health facility completely damaged and non- Deaths operative. Medical teams were deployed, mental health first aid has been provided and a field emergency hospital has been installed including outpatient services, #205 1,2,34,5 emergency rooms with isolation capacity, and clinical lab. Furthermore, around 800 people remain in shelters. Damaged #7161,2,5 Figure 1: La Lima, one of the most affected municipalities in Honduras Missing Source: PAHO Honduras #113 1,2,5 Evacuated # >1M1,2,3,4,5,6, Figure 2: Inoperative health facility in Yoro, Honduras. -
JANUARY 2021 | Volume 55 - Issue 1 SECOND THOUGHTS
1 JANUARY 2021 | Volume 55 - Issue 1 SECOND THOUGHTS Congregational Meeting Called for January 31 page 5. Sharing grace … Second Presbyterian Church www.2ndpreslou.org 2 “Then an angel of the Lord stood before them, and Contents the glory of the Lord shone around them, and they were terrified” (Luke 2:9) Dear Friends, Upcoming Events .....................3 Music .............................................4 By the time you read this, we will have been through what may be the most unusual Worship ........................................5 Christmas in any of our lives. But despite the Children ........................................9 anxieties and fears, the disappointments and Weekday School .................... 10 sadness over separations, Christmas came. We Youth ...................................... 11 heard the story again, maybe with fresh ears. I know I did. Because a church friend sent me Formation ................................. 12 some thoughts and materials on angels, I began to notice how much Stewardship ............................. 14 these “messengers” from God permeate Luke’s story of events leading to Mission ...................................... 15 Jesus’ birth and the birth itself. Angels are everywhere in movies, television Fellowship ................................ 18 programs, art and books related to Christmas. It was a Christmas tradition for Diana, David, and me to find an angel calendar for my mom. FYI ............................................... 19 What is it about angels that grabs out attention and -
Hurricane ETA at Category 4 Strength Bearing Dowon on the Caribbean Central American Coastline, SITUATION REPORT: Increasing in Intensity but Not in Pace of Movement
Hurricane ETA at Category 4 strength bearing dowon on the Caribbean Central American coastline, SITUATION REPORT: increasing in intensity but not in pace of movement. hurricane eta November 3, 2020 | No. 1 This historic hurricane season has exacerbated the coronavirus BY THE NUMBERS pandemic, in turn likely hampering any preparedness, response and rescue efforts. Hurricane Eta is expected to 145 mph max sustained wind impact the Honduras and Nicaragua. The Nicaraguan army has evacuated thousands of people while the Honduran authorities 14-21 ft expected sea level are mobilizing their army to help with evacuation of island regions and some coastal communities. 3 ft expected rainfall Because of the rapid onset of this storm, there is little 10 countries at risk time for residents to prepare. However, the central governments have mobilized what resources they have 70,000 people at direct risk for the most dire of circumstances. ACTIONS TAKEN AND NEXT STEPS SITUATION OVERVIEW Lutheran World Relief has activated its Humanitarian In the evening of October 31, a tropical depression formed Assistance team in the anticipation of the catastrophic in the eastern Caribbean Sea. By morning it had evolved into landfall and aftermath. The team is keeping in touch with Tropical Storm Eta, 2020’s 29th named storm. Now a slow- staff and partners on the ground to gather information moving system, Eta quickly intensified into a category four and anticipate what the most immediate needs will be. hurricane as it slowly moved towards the Caribbean coast of A response will take shape as soon as needs on the ground Nicaragua. -
Preleminary Report IP and ETA&IOTA Hurricanes .Indd
PRELIMINARY REPORT November 2020 ConsequencesConsequences ofof thethe HurricaneHurricane 20202020 SeasonSeason onon IndigenousIndigenous CommunitiesCommunities inin CentralCentral AmericaAmerica Destruction and Resilience PRELIMINARY REPORT ON THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE 2020 HURRICANE SEASON ON INDIGENOUS COMMUNITIES IN CEN- TRAL AMERICA DESTRUCTION AND RESILIENCE NOVEMBER 2020 GENERAL COORDINATION Myrna Cunningham Kain - President of FILAC Board of Directors Jesús Amadeo Martínez - General Coordinator of the Indigenous Forum of AbyaYala FIAY GENERAL SUPERVISION Álvaro Pop - FILAC Technical Secretary Amparo Morales - FILAC Chief of Staff TECHNICAL TEAM Ricardo Changala - Coordinator of the Regional Observatory for the Rights of Indigenous Peoples ORDPI FILAC Liber- tad Pinto - Technical Team ORDPI-FILAC Jean Paul Guevara - Technical Team ORDPI-FILAC TECHNICAL SUPPORT Ernesto Marconi - FILAC Technical Program Management Gabriel Mariaca - Coordinator of Institutional Communication FILAC Dennis Mairena - Management of Technical Programs FILAC Wendy Medina - FILAC Communication and Press Office GRAPHIC DESIGN Institutional Communication - FILAC IMAGES FILAC Imaging Archive UN Photos Shutterstock Unsplash LICENSE FOR DISTRIBUTION CC-BY-NC 4.0 This license allows reusers to distribute, remix, adapt, and build upon the material in any medium or format for noncommercial purposes only, and only so long as attribution is given to the creator. Credit must be given to the creator Only noncommercial uses of the work are permitted DOGOTAL ACCESS ON: https://indigenascovid19.red/monitoreo/ FILAC 20 de Octubre 2287 esq. Rosendo Gutiérrez [email protected] La Paz, Bolivia SUPPORT Ford Foundation, AECID and Pawanka Fund Introduction This document is a preliminary report on the human and material impacts of hurricanes Eta and Iota on the Central American isthmus. It has been an extraordinary fact that two hurricanes of this size and strength have hit the region so close in time, affecting all Central American countries. -
Congressional Record—House H6850
H6850 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD — HOUSE December 4, 2020 but because of the pandemic, we are ex- commitment and determination to bring our the commitment that you have indi- periencing over 1 million cases a week beloved Austin safely home. cated on this letter. It would bring joy and 2,000 deaths a day. Yesterday there was a news story from the unlike any these parents have ever ex- Because of that, we are finding our- region that Austin Tice had been released and was on a plane headed home. Our phones perienced if you would do so. selves in more self-induced economic were going crazy, our email was exploding, So, Mr. President, I salute you. I sa- comas, just like we are seeing in my Twitter, Facebook, Instagram—every kind of lute you for your desire and commit- State of California and my district on social media was buzzing with an outpouring ment to bring Austin home. And I sus- the central coast of California. of high hopes and great joy. Many, many pect that it has a lot to do with the We can’t wait any longer for another news outlets reached out eagerly hoping to fact that he is an American citizen, but economic package. That is why Demo- verify this great news. I also suspect, Mr. President, that it crats and Republicans of the Problem We know you can make this joyful news a has a lot to do with what you know reality. We know the Syrians are ready to Solvers Caucus worked with a bipar- about Austin.