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Guideline on Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Assessment Jointly for Our Common Future Forewords TABLE of CONTENTS

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Guideline on Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Assessment Jointly for Our Common Future Forewords TABLE of CONTENTS GUIDELINEON CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE DANUBE MACRO - REGION This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the SEERISK project partners (www.seeriskproject.eu), and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union. Viktor Chnápko (TTSK) (Chapter 6) Disaster Relief -URSZR, Murska Sobota, SEERISK Project Countries from the Dan- Theube macroguideline – region. presents It was a collective prepared effort based of Annamária Uzzoli (HAS) (Chapter 6) Velingrad Municipality, Velingrad, on data, information, text contribution and Ariel Milošević (RHMSS) (Chapter 7) City)Vladimir (Chapter Marković 4) (UNSPMF) (Chapter 6) Bulgaria.Slovenia. Asmir Kosovac (SERDA) (Chapters 4, 5, 6) Zoltán Heizler (Municipality of Siófok • the prerequisites of „Joint Disaster Manage- KKZ, mentguidance Risk onAssessment specific andissues Preparedness according toin Biljana Milić–Petrović (RHMSS) (Chapter 4) the Danube Macro - Region” SEERISK Pro- Biserka Vukasović (RHMSS) (Chapter 4, 5) Zoran Krajinović (RHMSS) (Chapter 4) • Koprivničko-križevačka County - ject funded by South East Europe Transna- Zsuzsa Földi (HAS) (Chapters 6,7) Koprivnica, Croatia. Carla Stepan (ISUJ Arad) (Chapter 4) SEERISK Project Partners: BM.I, tional Cooperation Programme. • Municipality of Kanjiža, Kanjiža, Serbia. Cosmin Turcuș (ISUJ Arad) National Directorate General for Disas- Vienna, Austria. (Chapter(Chapters 4) 5, 6, 7) ter Management - NGDGM, Budapest, • Federal Ministry of the Interior - Editor: Daniel Borisov (Velingrad Municipality) • Planning, Construction and Municipality of Siófok City - SVÖ, Siófok, • Provincial Secretariat for UrbanPSUPCEP , Lead authors:Marko Pavlović (RHMSS) Eleonóra Baxová (TTSK) (Chapter 6) Hungary (Lead Partner) Ágnes Rajacic (NDGDM) (Chapters 6, 7) Gordana Vuksanović (UNSPMF) (Chapter 6) • National Association of Radio Distress- Environmental Protection - András Sik (NDGDM) (Chapter 4) Imre Nagy (UNSPMF) (Chapters 4, 6) Hungary. Novi Sad, Serbia. Signalling and Infocommunications Contributing Partners: Iustin Marșieu (ISUJ Arad) (Chapter 5) • –RSOE Ivan Gyoshev (CDFSCP) (Chapter 4) TTSK, Anikó Horváth (NDGDM) (Chapter 4) , Budapest, Hungary. Annamária Uzzoli (HAS) (Chapter 5) Ivan Šteffek (TTSK) (Chapter 6) • Civil Protection Administration of Balázs Czikora Erika (NDGDM) (Chapter 4) • Trnava Self-Governing Region – Sarajevo Canton. Ariel Milošević (RHMSS) (Chapter 2) Katarína Matoková (SHMU) (Chapter 4) Research Center for Economic and Catrin Promper (UNIVIE) (Chapter 3) Trnava, Slovakia. László GyulaiCsikós (Municipality of SiófokKanjiža) City) SHMÚ • RHungarianegional Studies, Academy Institute of Sciences, for Regional (Chapter 4)5) • Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute – , Bratislava, Slovakia. Kinga Perge (NDGDM) (Chapter 4) Protection, Ministry of the Interior – Research Department - HAS, Budapest, Cosmin Turcuș (ISUJ Arad) (Chapter 4) • CDFSCPChief Directorate Fire Safety and Civil Studies, Central and North Hungarian Ľubica Krištofová (TTSK) (Chapter 6) UNIVIE, Vienna, Gordana Vuksanović (UNSPMF) (Chapter 5) , Sofia, Bulgaria. Hungary. Maria Papathoma-Köhle (UNIVIE) Lyuben Yanchovski (CDFSCP) (Chapter 4) Austria. Imre Nagy (UNSPMF) (Chapters 4) (Chapters 1, 3, 4) Marek Švec (SHMU) (Chapter 4) • NationalUniversity Meteorological of Vienna – Administration Marius Bîrsan (Meteo-Ro) (Chapter 5) - Meteo-RO, Bucharest, Romania. Marta Goranova (CDFSCP) (Chapter 4) • Marko Pavlović (RHMSS) (Chapters 1, 2, 4) Péter László (NDGDM) (Chapter 4) Michaela Mikuličková (SHMU) (Chapter 4) Sciences - UNSPMF Miklós Székely (NDGDM) (Chapters 2, 4) • University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Roxana Bojariu (Meteo-Ro) (Chapter 4) Milovan Radmanovac (RHMSS) (Chapter 4) , Novi Sad, Serbia. Thomas Glade (UNIVIE) (Chapters 1, 3) Mladen(Chapters Lučić 4, 6) (Civil Protection of Serbia - RHMSS, Belgrade, Serbia. Administration of Sarajevo Canton) • Republic Hydrometeorological Service Agency - SERDA Vladimir Marković (UNSPMF) (Chapter 4) Oľga Sersenová (TTSK) (Chapter 6) • Sarajevo Economic Region Development Roxana Bojariu (Meteo-Ro) Zsuzsa Földi (HAS) (Chapter 5) Peter Smrtník (SHMU) (Chapter 4) , Sarajevo, Bosnia and Contributor authors: Herzegovina. (Chapters 5, 6, 7) • EmergencySarajevo Canton, Situations Sarajevo, Inspectorate Bosnia and Herzegovina. Aleksandra Kržič (RHMSS) (Chapter 4) Roxana Diana Cică (Meteo-Ro) “Vasile Goldis” of Arad County - ISUJ Alexandru Dumitrescu (Meteo-Ro) (Chapters 4, 5) • Arad, Arad, Romania. (ChapterAlena Tajcnerová 4) (TTSK) (Chapter 6) Slavica Radovanović (RHMSS) (Chapter 4) Administration of the Republic of Uroš Davidović (RHMSS) (Chapter 4) Viktor Chnápko (TTSK) (Chapter 6) Ana Šovljanski (RHMSS) (Chapter 4) Valéria Wendlová (SHMU) (Chapter 4) • Slovenia For Civil Protection and 2 Anikó Horváth (NDGDM) (Chapters 6, 7) 3 GUIDELINE on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future FOREWORDS TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction 9 list OF ABBREVATIONS 2. Objectives of the guideline 14 AND acronYMS Lieutenant General 3. General description of the common risk Dr. György Bakondi 2.1. The concept of local risk assessment 14 assessment methodology 16 CC Climate change Director General of the MoI-National Directorate General for Disaster Management, European Union 3.1. SEERRISK project methodology 16 EU 4. Execution of the risk assessment at pilot 3.2. Steps of risk assessment 16 he countries in the Danube region are Hungaryprolonged frost caused serious problems in areas level 29 GIS Geographic Information System connected not only by the European Un- Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia. Agri- Tion’s largest river and common histori- cultural areas in Croatia were endangered risk in Arad, Romania IPCC cal heritage, but they also share the effects by extreme temperature fluctuations. The 4.1. Assessing and mapping heat wave Climate Change of our more extreme climate. The acknowl- sudden snowfall occurring in March 2013 hit 30 Intergovernmental Panel on edgment of this phenomenon has led to the thousands of people in Austria, Hungary and 4.2. Assessing and mapping drought and a.s.l. launch of the SEERISK project, a cooperation Serbia, who were temporarily left without wildfire risk in Kanjiža, Serbia 36 between nine countries. We are proud to be some kind of primary infrastructure. Beyond 4.3. Assessing and mapping flood risk in NCCS AboveNational sea climate level change strategy the first in the region to begin joint assess- all these problems our Slovak, Romanian and Sarajevo – Ilidža, Bosnia and Herzegovina 44 ment of the risks associated with climate Bulgarian partners experience similar events NGO change from a disaster management point of and suffer permanently from sudden thun- 4.4. Assessing and mapping flood risk in Senica, Slovakia 50 view. derstorms. SPI Non-governmentalStandard Precipitation organisation Index 4.5. Assessing and mapping the consequences The frequency of sudden downpours, flash Recognising that storm clouds and floods do of extreme wind in Siófok, Hungary 56 floods, strong winds and snow storms has not stop at borders, stricken neighbouring Velingrad, Bulgaria UHI 4.6. Assessing and mapping wildfire risk in multiplied in the countries of our region, while countries have been supporting one another 62 prolonged droughts are not uncommon. The in recent disaster incidents. This mutual sup- lessons learnt Urban Heat Island 4.7. Feedback from project partners and year 2005 was made memorable by torna- port is vital but it must be kept in mind that 5. The social aspects of climate change: 68 does and heavy rainfalls. The water played a further collaboration will be beneficial. Sig- Assessment of public awareness and major role in next year as well: in 2006 great nificant time and money can be spared by preparedness 70 floods marched down the Danube and Tisza jointly assessing the risks endangering our River practically at the same time. In almost countries, cities and villages. The project pre- all the cases of natural disasters, the authori- sented in this Guideline has developed a prac- 5.1. Social awareness questionnaire ties in the region have had to take care of vul- tical Risk Assessment Methodology based on stakeholderssurvey in pilot and areas the local planning 70 nerable people left without a roof, of whom the results of the latest climate research and documents5.2. Analysis of the interviews with local the housing had been endangered and settle- on detailed meteorological and geographic 6. Gap analysis: Comparison between risk ments out of reach. Additionally during the information system data. This methodology 77 assessment and risk perception of the floods in 2001, 2002, 2010 and 2013 regional has been adapted to our region, and with its authorities had to organise evacuation and unified principles, it will assist professionals local community 82 reconstruction of entire villages. Last June, in making risk assessment task simpler. 7. Policy recommendations for effective we had to protect the population and goods Modern societies are making huge efforts to adaptation to climate change 85 against the greatest floods of all time on the gain control over the natural and man-made 8. References 92 River Danube. 9. Annexes 94 risks, but this effort is not always crowned Climate change also affects the quality and with success. For that reason it is vital that Annex I - Gap analysis synthesis length of the seasons. Since 2007, almost the disaster
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