GuidelineON CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE DANUBE MACRO - REGION

This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the SEERISK project partners

(www.seeriskproject.eu), and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union. Viktor Chnápko (TTSK) (Chapter 6) Disaster Relief -URSZR, Murska Sobota, SEERISK Project Countries from the Dan- Theube macroguideline – region. presents It was a collective prepared effort based of Annamária Uzzoli (HAS) (Chapter 6) Velingrad Municipality, Velingrad, on data, information, text contribution and Ariel Milošević (RHMSS) (Chapter 7) City)Vladimir (Chapter Marković 4) (UNSPMF) (Chapter 6) Bulgaria.Slovenia. Asmir Kosovac (SERDA) (Chapters 4, 5, 6) Zoltán Heizler (Municipality of Siófok • the prerequisites of „Joint Disaster Manage- KKZ, mentguidance Risk onAssessment specific and issues Preparedness according toin Biljana Milić–Petrović (RHMSS) (Chapter 4) the Danube Macro - Region” SEERISK Pro- Biserka Vukasović (RHMSS) (Chapter 4, 5) Zoran Krajinović (RHMSS) (Chapter 4) • Koprivničko-križevačka County -

ject funded by South East Europe Transna- Zsuzsa Földi (HAS) (Chapters 6,7) Koprivnica, Croatia. Carla Stepan (ISUJ Arad) (Chapter 4) SEERISK Project Partners: BM.I, tional Cooperation Programme. • Municipality of Kanjiža, Kanjiža, Serbia. Cosmin Turcuș (ISUJ Arad) National Directorate General for Disas- Vienna, Austria. (Chapter(Chapters 4) 5, 6, 7) ter Management - NGDGM, Budapest, • Federal Ministry of the Interior - Editor: Daniel Borisov (Velingrad Municipality) • Planning, Construction and Municipality of Siófok City - SVÖ, Siófok, • Provincial Secretariat for UrbanPSUPCEP , Lead authors:Marko Pavlović (RHMSS) Eleonóra Baxová (TTSK) (Chapter 6) Hungary (Lead Partner) Ágnes Rajacic (NDGDM) (Chapters 6, 7) Gordana Vuksanović (UNSPMF) (Chapter 6) • National Association of Radio Distress- Environmental Protection - András Sik (NDGDM) (Chapter 4) Imre Nagy (UNSPMF) (Chapters 4, 6) Hungary. Novi Sad, Serbia. Signalling and Infocommunications Contributing Partners: Iustin Marșieu (ISUJ Arad) (Chapter 5) • –RSOE Ivan Gyoshev (CDFSCP) (Chapter 4) TTSK, Anikó Horváth (NDGDM) (Chapter 4) , Budapest, Hungary. Annamária Uzzoli (HAS) (Chapter 5) Ivan Šteffek (TTSK) (Chapter 6) • Civil Protection Administration of Balázs Czikora Erika (NDGDM) (Chapter 4) • Trnava Self-Governing Region – Sarajevo Canton. Ariel Milošević (RHMSS) (Chapter 2) Katarína Matoková (SHMU) (Chapter 4) Research Center for Economic and Catrin Promper (UNIVIE) (Chapter 3) Trnava, Slovakia. László GyulaiCsikós (Municipality of SiófokKanjiža) City) SHMÚ • RHungarianegional Studies, Academy Institute of Sciences, for Regional (Chapter 4)5) • Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute – , Bratislava, Slovakia. Kinga Perge (NDGDM) (Chapter 4) Protection, Ministry of the Interior – Research Department - HAS, Budapest, Cosmin Turcuș (ISUJ Arad) (Chapter 4) • CDFSCPChief Directorate Fire Safety and Civil Studies, Central and North Hungarian Ľubica Krištofová (TTSK) (Chapter 6) UNIVIE, Vienna, Gordana Vuksanović (UNSPMF) (Chapter 5) , Sofia, Bulgaria. Hungary. Maria Papathoma-Köhle (UNIVIE) Lyuben Yanchovski (CDFSCP) (Chapter 4) Austria. Imre Nagy (UNSPMF) (Chapters 4) (Chapters 1, 3, 4) Marek Švec (SHMU) (Chapter 4) • NationalUniversity Meteorological of Vienna – Administration Marius Bîrsan (Meteo-Ro) (Chapter 5) - Meteo-RO, Bucharest, Romania. Marta Goranova (CDFSCP) (Chapter 4) • Marko Pavlović (RHMSS) (Chapters 1, 2, 4) Péter László (NDGDM) (Chapter 4) Michaela Mikuličková (SHMU) (Chapter 4) Sciences - UNSPMF Miklós Székely (NDGDM) (Chapters 2, 4) • University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Roxana Bojariu (Meteo-Ro) (Chapter 4) Milovan Radmanovac (RHMSS) (Chapter 4) , Novi Sad, Serbia. Thomas Glade (UNIVIE) (Chapters 1, 3) Mladen(Chapters Lučić 4, 6) (Civil Protection of Serbia - RHMSS, Belgrade, Serbia. Administration of Sarajevo Canton) • Republic Hydrometeorological Service Agency - SERDA Vladimir Marković (UNSPMF) (Chapter 4) Oľga Sersenová (TTSK) (Chapter 6) • Sarajevo Economic Region Development Roxana Bojariu (Meteo-Ro) Zsuzsa Földi (HAS) (Chapter 5) Peter Smrtník (SHMU) (Chapter 4) , Sarajevo, Bosnia and Contributor authors: Herzegovina.

(Chapters 5, 6, 7) • EmergencySarajevo Canton, Situations Sarajevo, Inspectorate Bosnia and Herzegovina. Aleksandra Kržič (RHMSS) (Chapter 4) Roxana Diana Cică (Meteo-Ro) “Vasile Goldis” of Arad County - ISUJ Alexandru Dumitrescu (Meteo-Ro) (Chapters 4, 5) • Arad, Arad, Romania. (ChapterAlena Tajcnerová 4) (TTSK) (Chapter 6) Slavica Radovanović (RHMSS) (Chapter 4) Administration of the Republic of Uroš Davidović (RHMSS) (Chapter 4) Viktor Chnápko (TTSK) (Chapter 6) Ana Šovljanski (RHMSS) (Chapter 4) Valéria Wendlová (SHMU) (Chapter 4) • Slovenia For Civil Protection and 2 Anikó Horváth (NDGDM) (Chapters 6, 7) 3 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future FOREWORDs TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction 9 list of abbrEVAtions 2. Objectives of the guideline 14 and acronyms Lieutenant General 3. General description of the common risk Dr. György Bakondi 2.1. The concept of local risk assessment 14 assessment methodology 16 CC Climate change Director General of the MoI-National Directorate General for Disaster Management, European Union 3.1. SEERRISK project methodology 16 EU 4. Execution of the risk assessment at pilot 3.2. Steps of risk assessment 16 he countries in the Danube region are Hungaryprolonged frost caused serious problems in areas level 29 GIS Geographic Information System connected not only by the European Un- Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia. Agri- Tion’s largest river and common histori- cultural areas in Croatia were endangered risk in Arad, Romania IPCC cal heritage, but they also share the effects by extreme temperature fluctuations. The 4.1. Assessing and mapping heat wave Climate Change of our more extreme climate. The acknowl- sudden snowfall occurring in March 2013 hit 30 Intergovernmental Panel on edgment of this phenomenon has led to the thousands of people in Austria, Hungary and 4.2. Assessing and mapping drought and a.s.l. launch of the SEERISK project, a cooperation Serbia, who were temporarily left without wildfire risk in Kanjiža, Serbia 36 between nine countries. We are proud to be some kind of primary infrastructure. Beyond 4.3. Assessing and mapping flood risk in NCCS AboveNational sea climate level change strategy the first in the region to begin joint assess- all these problems our Slovak, Romanian and Sarajevo – Ilidža, Bosnia and Herzegovina 44 ment of the risks associated with climate Bulgarian partners experience similar events NGO change from a disaster management point of and suffer permanently from sudden thun- 4.4. Assessing and mapping flood risk in Senica, Slovakia 50 view. derstorms. SPI Non-governmentalStandard Precipitation organisation Index 4.5. Assessing and mapping the consequences The frequency of sudden downpours, flash Recognising that storm clouds and floods do of extreme wind in Siófok, Hungary 56 floods, strong winds and snow storms has not stop at borders, stricken neighbouring Velingrad, Bulgaria UHI 4.6. Assessing and mapping wildfire risk in multiplied in the countries of our region, while countries have been supporting one another prolonged droughts are not uncommon. The in recent disaster incidents. This mutual sup- lessons learnt 62 Urban Heat Island 4.7. Feedback from project partners and year 2005 was made memorable by torna- port is vital but it must be kept in mind that 5. The social aspects of climate change: 68 does and heavy rainfalls. The water played a further collaboration will be beneficial. Sig- Assessment of public awareness and major role in next year as well: in 2006 great nificant time and money can be spared by preparedness 70 floods marched down the Danube and Tisza jointly assessing the risks endangering our River practically at the same time. In almost countries, cities and villages. The project pre- all the cases of natural disasters, the authori- sented in this Guideline has developed a prac- 5.1. Social awareness questionnaire ties in the region have had to take care of vul- tical Risk Assessment Methodology based on surveystakeholders in pilot and areas the local planning 70 nerable people left without a roof, of whom the results of the latest climate research and documents5.2. Analysis of the interviews with local the housing had been endangered and settle- on detailed meteorological and geographic 6. Gap analysis: Comparison between risk ments out of reach. Additionally during the information system data. This methodology 77 assessment and risk perception of the floods in 2001, 2002, 2010 and 2013 regional has been adapted to our region, and with its authorities had to organise evacuation and unified principles, it will assist professionals local community 82 reconstruction of entire villages. Last June, in making risk assessment task simpler. 7. Policy recommendations for effective we had to protect the population and goods Modern societies are making huge efforts to adaptation to climate change 85 against the greatest floods of all time on the gain control over the natural and man-made 8. References 92 River Danube. 9. Annexes 94 risks, but this effort is not always crowned Climate change also affects the quality and with success. For that reason it is vital that Annex I - Gap analysis synthesis length of the seasons. Since 2007, almost the disaster management professionals and Annex II - Glossary of terms 94 every year an unusual heat wave places municipalities take into account climatic var- 98 new demands on the authorities to alert the iables, instead of exclusively relying on facts community. Last winter, heavy snowfall and that are already known.

4 5 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Prof. David Alexander Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction

urope is a continent of ten million Universitythe Alpine College mountain London, chain United and theKingdom Mediter- and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Man- square kilometers in which 740 million ranean basin harbour geophysical and me- agement, Epeople live in 50 countries, six enclaves teorological hazards that are often more Relativesuffer the to consequences the past century of natural societies hazards and of the end users and offers practical solu- and seven dependencies. In this crowded ge- intense than they are elsewhere in the con- the environment around the globe often- tions. The considersmethodology individual took into challenges account a ographical space, natural hazards frequent- tinent. This part of the continent is therefore ronmental degradation, destruction of in- ly cause damage and casualties, and there a vital laboratory for testing the methodolo- thatfrastructure lead to lossand ofbusiness life and disruption. property, envi The risk, and resulted in a harmonized risk as- are signs that climate change has begun to gies proposed by the EU and adapting them costs of natural disasters are rising, while varietysessment of processnatural hazardsin the partner and elements countries. at intensify this problem. The combination of to local circumstances. the consequences are becoming more and Risk matrices, risk scenarios and risk maps hazardous natural phenomena and high vul- more serious. Therefore, it is essential to SEERISK is a collaborative project that has nerability leads to complex and cascading better understand these natural processes, conducted research into the application of effects. Critical infrastructure is seriously at - havesix pilot been areas. used in the mapping process and risk assessment methodologies in the Dan- risk in Europe, and transboundary impacts tions and to address the potential changes have been based on past recorded events in ube basin and other areas of southeast Eu- This methodology has been tested in prac- are increasingly common. It is therefore vi- to find appropriate risk management op- rope that are seriously threatened by mete- tice in the different countries participating tally important that European countries re- orological and hydrological hazards. It rep- in the project, by taking into account local double their efforts to estimate and assess resulting from socio-economic and envi resents the best of European co-operation in the risks posed by natural hazards. Only by ronmental development. Many research- applied science and is a model of how col- gaining a detailed understanding of how the groupsment concepts and institutions and strategies. in several countries laboration between institutions and coun- deficiencies, such as the lack of records of risks operate, and in particular how hazards are working on improving risk manage tries can reduce a seemingly intractable In South-East Europe, extreme disaster local historic disaster events, spatial data- act upon the many sources of vulnerability, problem to something that offers solutions andlutions other for implementing relevant data. the Therefore, risk assess the- will it be possible to design remedial meas- and methodologies for making Europe saf- reason, the SEERISK project has been methodology offers various alternative so- ures. Warning, evacuation, preparedness, re- er. SEER!SK has produced practical guide- events are also a major concern; for this- ing risk maps.. sponse and recovery all depend on having a - ment process and specifically for develop lines for managing risks and responding to As widely discussed, climate change is ex- solid understanding of the risks. launcheding assistance to investigate to disaster the risk specific management condi floods, droughts, heat waves, ice storms, cold - One of the problems of risk assessment is snaps and other hazards that are common. tionsprofessionals. in detail. Guidelines aimed at provid that many different methodologies are Readers who are involved in managing the This Guideline summarizes the results of pectedextreme to temperatures,influence the frequency storms, anddroughts mag available to accomplish it. Moreover, so- response to such events are urged to con- nitude of natural hazards such as floods,- cial measures tend to differ from the more sult these guidelines and make use of them empirical methodologies used by engineers so that the citizens of Europe can be better the first part of the SEERISK project and andrelated wildfires. disasters Thus, are health,also becoming material, more eco and physical sciences. No matter how many protected in the future. revealsrelated policynatural recommendations hazards. One of aimingthe main to nomicserious. and environmental consequences of facets it has, risk is a holistic phenomenon improve local adaptation to climate change- The social aspect of the climate change in that needs to be understood in its entirety. generic and adaptable risk assessment This is difficult to achieve when the norms, aimsmethodology. of SEERISK Risk is assessment to develop isa acommon, system- laws and regulations governing risk mitiga- atic, science-based decision making pro- and stakeholders in the pilot communities. tion and management are different from one - the Guideline involves an assessment of the country to another, or, indeed, from one re- awareness and preparedness of individuals for the pilot communities as well as semi- gion to another. Hence, the European Union cess, which provides a comprehensive pro Social awareness questionnaire surveys has issued guidelines on how to assess risk file of the risks, their causes, probabilities- - in order to reduce and respond to disaster and consequences. It comprises the overall structuredried out. As interviews a combination and analysisof risk assess of the- impacts. Many of the worst risks of disaster processassessment of riskmethodology identification, integrates risk analy the local planning documents have been car occur in the south and east of Europe, where sisEuropean and risk Commission’s evaluation. TheRisk common Assessment risk

6 ment and social surveys, gaps have been 7 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future hazards and the degree of preparedness of 1. Introduction identifiedthe communities. between the actual exposure to Subsequently the SEERISK consortium for- mulated applicable recommendations for EERISK project countries from the Dan- recommendations designed for partici- - bothpating local countries and national can be levels. also appliedThese policy else- Saffected by a range of natural hazards However,tensity, spatial although extent, changes duration in climateand timing are ube macro – region have been often expectedof hazardous to influence phenomena, the frequency extreme andweath in- policy recommendations are the main - where,product with of the minor Climate modifications. Change Adaptation Although that have caused a significant number of- only if: 1) communities are exposed to those and Risk Assessment Guideline, SEERISK negative effects manifested in human casu er and climate events may lead to disaster- also deals with the practical aspect of pre- alties, infrastructure damage and environ nities is high, and 3) their adaptation poten- paredness at a later stage. This includes, for mental impacts as presented in Figure1.1. events,tial is low. 2) the In vulnerabilityEurope, for example,of these commu despite Manyconsequences hydro-meteorological of climate extremes hazard (extreme events, the fact that hazard exposure has increased, in the pilot areas, a GIS best practice com- such as storms or flash floods are direct example,pilation and disaster an emergency simulation communication field exercises - strategy. All the practical products, guide- weatheror extreme events), due to while climate others change. like floods or vulnerability has significantly decreased, wildfires are becoming even more frequent due to improved adaptation policy, regula According to the most recent IPCC report electronic form as Disaster Risk Assessment tions and risk prevention and management an alteration in andlines Climate and methodologies Change Adaptation will be Toolkit.available1 in strategies (IPCC 2012, EEY 2008, UNISDR the state of climate that can be identified by As far as changes in climate are concerned, 2009). changes(2012), climatein the mean change and/or is “the variability of it is accepted that the Earth’s surface has ex- its properties, and that persists for an extend- perienced extraordinary and rapid warm- ed period, typically decades or longer”.

ing since the late 1800’s. At the global,

1 www.seeriskproject.eu Figure 1 SEERISK project pilot areas hazard events (Sources: SEERISK pilot areas - Arad, Senica, Siófok) Please visit the SEERISK Project web site 8 9 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future the Danube macro – region. While winter

continental and regional levels, numerous no clear trends for spring and autumn. long-term changes in climate have been variability increases significantly, there are Due to the expected changes in climate, observed.widespread Observations melting of snow of increases and ice, globalin the natural hazards spatial pattern, frequency global average air and ocean temperatures, - a result, the associated consequences are rising of the sea level, and warming of the- and magnitude are modified as well and as climate system in recent decades have con- relationship between disaster risk and cli- firmed that global climate change is occur alsomate significantlyand socio-economic altered. change The schematic is clearly ring (NOAA, 2013). Despite some contro versyfactor into theglobal past, warming it is now that recognized has been that ob- human activities are the main contributing shown in Figure 3. In more detail, IPCC estimated that by served in the last 50 years (IPCC, 2007). increase between by 1.1 to 6.4°C, while, 2100, global temperature is expected to

seaacidity level of isthe forecasted oceans might to rise increase, between hot 18 –extremes 59cm. Itmight is further become approximated more frequent, that tropical cyclones more intense and precipi- tation might increase in higher latitudes, whereas in subtropical areas it is expected

- Figure 3 The relationship between disaster risk toperature, decrease precipitation (UNISDR, and 2008). the Duedecrease to the of and global environmental change (IPCC, 2012) observedsnow precipitation changes ofand mean duration annual of snow tem - Climate change, in combination with socio- charge and an increase of runoff during the economic changes is expected to modify cover,winter a period decrease is most in mean likely annual to be water expected. dis the spatial pattern of risk too in SEERISK - the summer period as a consequence of tremes and hazards are not restricted with- Additionally, low water availability during- countries. Furthermore, climate-related ex- transpiration might be particularly strong. oration between neighbouring countries

lowThis summer summer, precipitation water scarcity and might high particu evapo- Figure 2 Observed and projected changes in the inand national harmonization borders. of For the this existing reason, practices collab larly increase the frequency of moderate different European regions (EEA, 2012). severe drought and water stress, resulting On the other hand, future projections of - in water shortages (ICPDR, 2012). In Europe generally, higher temperatures More particularly, as far as SEERISK project andized predictions methods are are essential. critically important Furthermore, for and severe drought events. are causing retreating glaciers and are in- partner countries in the Danube macro – detaileddrafting preparedness investigations and and adaptation high regional poli- - floodhazard events probability are characterized and magnitude with is likely high region are concerned, climate change poses cies. The existing risks should be reduced - uncertainty.to occur in the However, Danube an basin, increase especially of flood in - creasingjected changes the frequency in Europe and related severity to ofclimate wild small water catchments. A pronounced in- By combining the IPCC emission scenario tion policies and measures. As far as the fires (UNISDR 2008). The observed and pro a real and growing problem (refer to Fig. 3). bySEERISK implementing project partner specific countries regional areadapta con- Regional Circulation Models it was possible - In South-East Europe and especially in the change are demonstrated in Figure 2. crease in flash floods is to be expected. as (A1B,to spot A2, future B1 trends and B2) of climate and Global parameters and/or national action plans and programs should Carpathian Area, particularly the southern well (ICPDR, 2012) such as air temperature and precipita- cerned, coherent and comprehensive trans tion. Various simulations show a decrease the necessary instruments and costs of im- the Republic of Serbia, Bulgaria and the re- in summer precipitation of about ‐ beplementing elaborated the for proposed the whole measures. area, defining partsgion of of the Hungary Danube and Delta Romania, are likely as wellto face as to‐ 20% 10 35% for SEERISK project countries in 11 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future - ogy. This methodology considers the spe- tial of societies will also change the spa- Thetial pattern vulnerability of the and associated adaptation risks, poten as well as direct and indirect consequences cificframework, characteristics their requirements, of the SEERISK the partner needs - countries, their legal and administrative ate climate change adaptation strategies, of hazards. The development of appropri andbetween challenges agencies, that transborder they have to collabora face (e.g.- lack of data, difficulties in communication- based on comprehensive risk assessment nized solution for the partner countries, isand essential harmonized and could methodology significantly for risk reduce as- tion).which It will also enable attempts them to to provide assess aand harmo map riskssessment (Fig. and1.4). mappingThe need isfor clear an improved and for risks. SEERISK partner countries will be this reason, a major part of the SEERISK Figure 4 The relation between climate change able to use the methodology in order to as- project is dedicated to elaboration of such adaptation and disaster risk reduction policies methodology. An adequate assessment of (UNISDR, 2009). make informed decisions regarding disas- risks for different types of climate change- sesster management and visualize measures risks and and consequently plans. The - SEERISK partner countries will be able to at risks (e.g. buildings, people, industrial use this risk assessment methodology as relatedor agricultural hazards andareas), a variety as well of elementsas their Moreover, The Hyogo Framework for Ac- a basis for climate change adaptation and mapping is an essential basis for risk re- tionmate 2005-2015,change as part adopted of disaster in Kobe risk (Japan) reduc- disaster risk reduction policies. duction strategies and decision making. in 2005, expressed the need to address cli - National climate change strategies focus tion strategies (UNISDR, 2009). on the assessment of the present situation Effective disaster management, emer and conditions as well as the requirements gencyon reliable and evacuation risk information. plans, preparedness In the SEER- - andISK guidelines efficient warning such a methodology systems are basedis not gary, the National Climate Change Strat- for adaptation to climate change. In Hun the relationship between risk assessment onlyand climate developed, adaptation presented is also and highlighted. tested but egy (NCCS) for the Period 2008-2025. was - adopted in 2008. Consultations about the revised version (NCCS. 2) is underway. It is- In fact, a major overlap and comple planned to be adopted in 2014. As part of mentarityand climate can change be observed adaptation. between Disaster the the NCCS, the Hungarian National Adapta policyrisk reduction fields of may disaster contribute risk to reduction climate tion Strategy defines adaptation objectives- - and tasks for the period 2014-2025 with - analso outlook comprises until recommendations2050. In Romania, foran aplo- changeforms, technical adaptation, networks with relevant and approaches legisla proved NCCS for 2013-2020 is in use, which tionto community, development, whereas multi stakeholder climate change plat - calthe authorities.National Adaptation In Slovakia, Strategy preparation was pub of- ability assessments, capacity building and the NCCS has begun and the first draft of- adaptationresponse strategies approaches, will suchdirectly as support vulner terial working group was established to lished in 2013. In Bulgaria, an interminis of a NCCS aiming at CC adaptation. In Bos- disaster risk reduction (UNISDR, 2009). promote and coordinate the development and National Adaptation Strategy are being niaprepared. and Herzegovina and Serbia the a NCCS The Guidelines on Climate Change Adapta- tion and Risk Assessment presented here set the focus on climate change adapta- tion, using a risk assessment methodol-

12 13 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future In order to enhance and reinforce the pre- 2.ObjectiveS of THE guideline an analysis of the local planning document paredness of disaster management to deal risks,shall be a survey conducted. on social risk awareness and - - with the identified natural hazards, disas tercommunication simulation field strategy exercises shall becould in place. be or Theprocessed, risk evaluation ends with stage,formulation where of all poli the- ganized. Moreover, an efficient emergency The Guideline on Climate Change Adapta- 2.1. THE concept of local risk previouslycy recommendations developed for results decision have makers been The following chart shows the main stages tion and Risk Assessment are designed to assessment aiming to rectify current weaknesses and of the SEERISK project which is drawn up assist disaster risk management practition- - ers and decision makers in taking appro- The rationale behind the SEERISK project portunities. - priate risk assessment and climate change take advantage of climate adaptation op broadment exercise, enough soas well.as to provide as practical adaptation measures and actions. identification and analysis of risks posed by guidelines for any local-level risk assess and the novelty it brings is that itwith combines in the climate change adaptation and risk In the following chapters, the different The overall objective of Guideline is to as- climate change related hazards analy- sis of the perception the society and institu- Theassessment findings guideline and the can recommendations be best shared stages of the project will be explained in sess and reduce risks from climate change more detail. related natural hazards to human life, wel- tions have of these risks and their prepar- edness which can be maintained as a permanent viaforum climate for the change interested adaptation stakeholders. platforms, – region. The document aims to enhance climatic and social aspects of disaster risk assessment became part of the same plat- farepreparedness and environment and disaster in the Danube management macro for them.. In this way the natural/ - form. plicable mitigation and climate change ad- The proposed framework of a comprehen- responseaptation actions. capability, as well as provide ap follows logical order of essential outputs The specific objective - sive local disaster risk assessment process designed for SEERISK in such way that it ment, shared principles isand to strategies develop and on can be ideally applied to any local circum- proposeclimate change a unified adaptation. approach This to risk includes: assess and steps. This general workflow has been - 1. Carrying out the process of risk assess- - stances in different environmental and so In the initial stage, the natural hazard cial and political settings (Figure 5). that needs to be assessed and managed ment by developing a common risk as Explaining how the common risk as- throughout the process is to be properly 2. sessment methodology; sessment methodology can be put into identify. This can be done by using a cus- tom-designed risk assessment question-

practice via the results in six case study - 3. areas; - imposed by the natural hazards related naire which reveals and ranks the relevant hazard.opment Theof risksecond assessment stage of themethodology identifica Revealing gaps between the challenges tionwhich process allows involvesrisk assessment adoption to or be devel per- formed locally. to climate change and the level of overall 4. Suggesting possible adaptation solutions Figure 5. The concept of the SEERISK Project preparedness of the society; The analysis of the risks can be made possi- to the challenges imposed by the chang- products: risk matrices for classifying risks Raising people’s awareness of climate ble by developing three useful risk-related- 5. ing climatic conditions; ing a disaster and risk maps for demon- disaster management preparedness. levels,strating risk risks scenarios geographically. for credibly describ change and enhancing overall local-level To thoroughly analyze the perception the

the risks and their preparedness for these society’ and public institutions have of

14 15 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future 3. General description of THE common risk ASSESSMENT methodology

The common risk assessment methodology f) The framework for mapping risk of dif- the consistency in risk assessment among e) Production of risk scenarios; ferent types of hazards and elements at has been developed in order to improve the local authorities and other end-users Southeastwith a tool European that will enable countries them and to conductprovide risk; risk assessment and mapping for a range process in the partner countries that of hazard types, hazards of different scale g) Harmonisationleads to comparable of the outputs risk assessment and elements at risk. A questionnaire about common practices in risk assessment and - 3.1. SEERISK Project ability and institutional background was methodology Figure 6. The process of risk assessment as part of risk management (IEC/FDIS31010, 2009) mapping,completed damage by each assessment,partner. The data results avail of The SEERISK common risk assessment establishment of risk criteria in step 1. and this questionnaire were analysed and were The common methodology considers - assessment process incorporates three - - methodologysteps: 1. establishing is shown the in Figurecontext 7. andThe risk thelowing levels paragraphs of risk matrix the steps in step of the2. are risk used as- very much taken into consideration dur drawbacks, such as lack of significant data - during risk evaluation, step 3.). In the fol ing the development of the common meth sets and it offers alternative steps, in order toity. provideTherefore, a methodology the methodology that is is solution- feasible and explained. odology. The methodology was developed identification, 2. risk analysis and finally 3. sessment procedure are briefly reviewed bythe the entire University SEERISK of consortium. Vienna and it received and usable even with limited data availabil been designed in accordance with the EC risk evaluation. However, the three steps strong support by NDGDM (Hungary) and The principal aim of the methodology is to oriented.Guidelines Moreover, for Risk Assessment the methodology and Map has- are interconnected and often overlap (e.g.

assist them in the implementation of risk approach, regarding the risk assessment provideassessment a tool and for in local the estimation authorities of that poten can- ping (EC, 2010). It provides a step-wise- tial changes of risks associated with spe- ment of risk matrices and scenarios and procedure, a methodology on the develop- related scenarios. In more detail, the risk ping. The theoretical framework of risk cificassessment scenarios, methodology including aims climate at: change finallymapping a theoretical presented hereapproach is applicable to risk mapto all a) Integration of the EC guideline in risk as- of SEERISK. hazard types which have been in the focus sessment and mapping; challenges of end users, such as data 3.2. steps OF risk assessment b) Taking into consideration individual The risk assessment process is part of a c) Being solution oriented: the methodo- greater risk management process as dem- scarcity; logical framework incorporates practical - solutions in order to face the challenges - onstrated in Figure 6. Risk assessment in Figure 7. Risk Assessment Procedure (modified from AEMC (2010) corporates three steps: risk identification, and deliver the final products (risk ma risk analysis and risk evaluation. These d) Production of risk matrices by the users, trices, risk maps and risk scenarios); threethe next steps one oftento begin. overlap The actions and one that does are not necessarily have to be completed for-

based on past recorded events; involved in each step are thoroughly de 16 17 Guideline onscribed climate in change the EC adaptation guidelines and (EC,risk assessment 2010). Jointly for our common future 3.2.1. Context and Risk local to national, but it may also be site- or Identification study area may be imposed by administra- The context of the risk assessment has catchment-specific. The limitation of the to be determined from the beginning of the risk assessment procedure. The con- tive(buildings, borders people, or limits etc.) that and will the be risk set metricby the text includes the aim of risk assessment, working(the way group. risk is Finally, going to the be elements measured, at riske.g. in other words, the reason for conducting risk assessment has to be made clear (e.g. emergency planning, prioritization of fund- number of people, damage in euros) have- ing allocation, a basis for decision making, totion be phase, defined. is to One use away risk of assessment obtaining quesbasic- hazardtionnaire and (see risk Disaster data, i.e. Riskin the Assessment identifica conduct risk assessment has to be identi- and Climate Change Adaptation Toolkit for etc.). Moreover, the working group that will- template).

fiedfocus together of the riskwith assessment,the end users as of well the asfi 3.2.2. Risk Analysis nal product. The end-users will define the- nally, the risk criteria i.e. the terms of ref- - the form of presentation of the results. Fi derstanding of the risk and determination Risk analysis is a process that involves un- Figure 8. Establishing the Context and the Basis for the Risk Assessment Procedure erence against the significance of a risk, - shouldunique befor evaluated each area by and the hazard working type. group On of its level (EC 2010). Generally, risk analy 3.2.2.1. Hazard Analysis 3.2.2.3. Qualitative, (IEC/FDIS31010,the other hand, the2009). basis These of risk criteria assess are- sisand involves an assessment an assessment of its impact of the on probabil the ele- Quantitative and Semi- ment indicates the details of the procedure ityments of occurrenceat risk. In other of an words, event risk (or analysis hazard) quantitative risk analysis such as the type of hazard or hazards, the - scale of risk assessment and the extent of nerability Analysis (Table 1). Atinformation this stage, on records the probability of past events of occur have- - the study area. The scale may range from has to address: Hazard Analysis and Vul torence be andinvestigated the intensity first, (and in order extent) to ofobtain each Table 1. The actions included in hazard and vulnerability analysis (EC, 2010) Riskassessment assessment methods may beclassify qualitative, risk as quanti high, tativemedium or semiand quantitative.low, based on Qualitative expert clas risk- event. The type of information available- Hazard Analysis Vulnerability analysis may be either qualitative (high/medium/ risk assessment methods express risk in low probability) or quantitative (return pe sification schemes, whereas quantitative (a) Geographical analysis riod of e.g. 100, 30, 10 year flood). (location, extent) (exposure) 3.2.2.2. Impact analysis lost or damage in Euros (€). (Note: Semi- (a) Identification of elements at risk quantitative terms, such as number of lives (b) Temporal analysis Information regarding the impact of spe- (frequency, duration, etc.) impacts - quantitativeby this methodology). methods which use indices to (b) Identification of vulnerability factors/ (c) Dimensional analysis (scale, intensity) (c) Assessment of likely impacts express the respective risk are not covered cific events has to be collected and ana 3.2.2.4. Risk matrix (d) Probability of occurrence (d) Analysis of self-protection capabilities lysed.at risk Impactand the analysisrisk metric involves (e.g. number collection of of information regarding a specific element- After performing hazard and impact analy- tion of the elements at risk (exposure) in reducing exposure or vulnerability deaths,the study damage area inand euros). their Thecharacteristics identifica sisThe in risk the matrixqualitative is based form on in historicalsteps 1 and data 2, theand riskfor this matrix reason can has be to developed be unique (step for the 3). thatPreparedness affect their and vulnerability coping capacities (vulnerability should factorsalso be andconsidered indicators) in the have impact to be analysis. included. risk and the type of hazard considered. In specific pilot area, such as for the element at

order to develop a risk matrix, like the one shown in Figure 12, the following sub-steps 18 have to be taken: 19 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future Risk levels rating -

a. The likelihood or probability of occurrence of a specific hazard riskof the evaluation procedure. (e.g. At this acceptable stage, the risk results crite high, medium and low risk applies to them. b. The impact of this specific hazard on the selected element at risk ria) have to be made right at the beginning AtThis this decision stage, end might users alsohave tobe decide connected what c. The risk levels or risk rating (e.g. low, medium, high) and a description of each category. compared. of risk analysis and risk criteria have to be (green) might mean no action, medium risk to specific actions. For example, low risk 3.2.4. Risk Mapping

(yellow/orange)step is also connected might meanto the alert third and step high of Risk mapping is an essential tool for lo- risk (red) might mean evacuation. This cal authorities and decision-makers and it should accompany risk assessment. The riskwhich assessment, risks they namely, are going risk to evaluation. accept and At methodology of risk assessment and map- thiswhich stage, ones decision they are makers going to have treat. to identify ping considers the shortcomings of poten-

3.2.2.5. Risk Curve tialan EXITusers, option. such as The limited EXIT data option availability. is to be Threechosen alternativesonly in case are other given, options followed are not by In case information regarding the probabil- Figure 9. The risk matrix based on EC (2010) (Note: (1), (2), (3) etc. refer to the different - ratings of impact and likelihood) EXIT option does not lead to a risk map, but available,to an impact due or to exposure lack of adequate map instead data. thatThe - ity of occurrence and the impact is availa may also be used by the authorities and the The risk matrix shown as an example in Impact rating tionship between the probability of occur- ble in quantitative form, a risk curve can be decision-makers. Impact rating is the next major step in de- developed. The risk curve shows the rela based on the EC Guidelines. A risk matrix Figure 9 is only a suggestion, developed to decide on the element at risk (e.g. human rence and the respective loss (Figure 10). categories as necessary, depending on the veloping the risk matrix. First, experts have maytype and have quality as many of data impact used. and likelihood (e.g. number of fatalities or injured inhab- lives,itants, material monetary damage) damage and in theeuros). risk Impactmetric rating can be determined according to these Likelihood rating - • Catastrophic: more than 1 death per Likelihood rating is the first essential step two pieces of information. For example: inare thethree development different approaches of a risk matrix.to estimat Ac- cording to IEC/FDIS31010 (2009), there • 10.000 inhabitants historic data, b) Probability forecasts, c) inhabitants ingExpert the opinion. likelihood The of choice an event: of one a) Useof the of Major: more than 1 death per 100.000 • Moderate: more than 1 death per - ability of past records, data, resources, and above approaches depends on the avail • Minor: Isolated cases of serious injuries 1.000.000 inhabitants • experts for the specific process in the study area.of points. According The probability to IEC/FDIS31010 range has (2009) to be Insignificant: minor injuries. the probability scale may have any number- descriptions (thoroughly explained). The Figure 10. An example of a risk curve for storm risk assessment for different German cities sen hazard type. The probability scale may Theimpact intervals rating canhas tobe beabsolute based onnumbers real past or (Heneka and Ruck, 2008) relevant to the case study area and the cho considering that the lowest probability judgment. The range of impacts should ex- 3.2.3. Risk Evaluation The step-by-step tutorial on risk mapping span the range relevant to the study area, eventstend form and the their highest consequences credible impact or expert to techniques (GIS Best Practices) is part of - must be acceptable for the highest defined ing which risk is acceptable or tolerable at a later stage of the SEERISK project. consequence (IEC/FDIS31010, 2009). the lowest impact of concern (IEC/FDIS, Riskand hasEvaluation to be treated. is the Decisionsprocedure related of decid to the DRACCAT package and will be available 2009). 20 21 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future the hazard map and the reliability of the in- risk categories can be more than three). In and Mapping 3.2.4.1. Types of Risk Assessment levelthe whole according map canto the be matrixattributed, and indicatingaccording formation it provides should be validated toareas its levelof high, of hazardmedium, and low impact. risk (please In this note: way, Figurerisk map 13 is the described. process of combining hazard (combination and analysis) of hazard map- andshall improved make sure by that taking hazards into are consideration thoroughly and impact maps and the development of a Theoretically,ping and impact risk mapping. mapping Risk is theassessment overlay futurerecorded events. in the future. Nevertheless, In this way, the the experts infor-

canbe expressed be qualitative as possible (it can damage be expressed (in euros) as mationfuture. necessary for the development of a high, medium or low) or quantitative (it can- detailed hazard map will be available in the mapping lives lost in absolute numbers). In qualita Qualitative impact assessment and tivemedium, mapping, low). hazard and impact are also Impacts can be assessed and mapped by us- expressed in qualitative terms (e.g. high, Qualitative assessments - ing different alternatives, depending on data- availability, in the same way hazard assess mapping ment is conducted. In case an impact or vul- Qualitative hazard assessment and nerability map is already available, it can be - overlaid with the hazard map for risk map Figure 11 illustrates the general workflow ping.by using If such information a map is regardingnot available, the damagethen an fortype qualitative and required hazard scale assessment already exists, and itmap can impact map has to be made (alternative 1) ping.be used If a righthazard away map for for risk the mapping. specific hazardIf such - - caused by past events or information on the- tensity of a hazard can be described in quali- vulnerability of the elements at risk. The el Figure 11. General workflow for qualitative hazard assessment a map is not available, the probability of in ement at risk under investigation (e.g. peo - ple)assessment. and the riskIn this metric way, (e.g. a map lives of lost) potential were tativecurrence terms (high, by usingmedium, information low) for baseddifferent on identified in the previous stages of the risk historic data to define the probability of oc of the study area can be attributed accord- result can be mapped and the map can then lossesingly (high, can be medium, developed low). and If thehistorical raster mapdata partsbe used of forthe risk study mapping. area (alternative If incomplete 1). or The no - expert judgment can be used to identify low, is not available, then a similar map can be datamedium on previousand high events hazard are zones available, (alterna then- developedexit strategy by suingproposes expert consulting judgment a(alter land - nativeuse map 2) (e.g.and informationin case of human on land casualties: use. The equately attributed according to the hazard residential areas-high, commercial areas- tive 2). A raster map of the area can be ad medium, industrial areas-low) that will lead to exposure mapping. The resulting maps of level. In case this is also not possible then an - exita risk strategy map. By may using be theused. exit However, strategy the the exit ex- dated in the future and the exit strategy has strategy does not lead to the development of the first three alternatives have to be vali- or area of interest to conduct impact conse- tion techniques regarding damage caused pertquence will mapping use the only.whole An administrative impact map offers unit to include a step for improving data collec

by hazards (Figure 12). can be of interest to the decision makers. In mapping stillcase somethe production valuable spatial of a hazard information map is posthat- Qualitative risk assessment and - Figure 12. General workflow for qualitative impact assessment of the risk assessment and mapping and sible, the expert can move to the next step The two qualitative maps (hazard and im pact) can be overlaid in GIS. Each pixel will continue with the impact analysis. However, be given a colour which will indicate a risk 22 23 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future Figure 14. General workflow for quantitative hazard assessment and mapping judgment should be used to indicate the areas where the probability of occurrence mapping Quantitative risk assessment and The procedure for using the information terms. The exit strategy is similar to the is higher than elsewhere in quantitative- Figure 13. Qualitative risk assessment and mapping risk assessment and mapping is described ping procedure and future steps (marked provided by the above maps, developed for oneyellow) described are also in similar. the qualitative risk map Quantitative assessments - in Figure 16. The equivalent of a risk matrix istic (showing the distribution of the prob- and mapping probability of occurrence and the impact of - for quantitative data is a risk curve. The risk ofability a specific of occurrence hazard scenario) in the studyor probabil area). Quantitative impact assessment curve shows the relationship between the Ideally, such a hazard map exists, but if not, the risk in the areas where the probability When data regarding past events are avail - process is similar to the one described for an event. Risk curves can be used to assess able in quantitative form, the development - In Figure 15 the steps for developing a- of a quantitative risk map is possible. The quantitativesible impact impactcan be map mapped are demonstrated. by using the theoped. first This alternative kind of map suggests can be that made a quanusing is known but the damage is not. F-N curves If such a map is not available then the pos titativedetailed hazard historical map data should in order be to to be map devel the are similar to risk curves, only they refer to qualitative risk assessment and mapping probability or spatial distribution of in- human lives rather than material loss. More- offeringand mapping, alternatives a map inindicating case of lack spatial of data. dis- existing vulnerability curves. On the other tensity classes. Methods and techniques of information on F-N curves and risk curves Similar to the qualitative risk assessment- hand, such a map can be also developed- isdifferent given elsewhere areas or pixels in this on document. the map canBy us be by mapping exact damage data of previous and they depend on the type of hazard and ing risk curves or F-N curves, the risk in tributionshowing the of probabilitypotential impacts and intensity in the study lev combined with land use information and developing a hazard map vary significantly events, when available. The second alterna elsarea. has to be developed, followed by a map tivehistoric proposes data. theThe use exit of strategyexpert judgment, is simi- modeled or in other cases point data can be assessed and visualised. The resulting risk- the available data. Often, hazards can be mapment may of the be hazard raster andor vector impact depending map. on risk mapping procedure and future steps and mapping hazard or to map spatial distribution of its to the original data used for the develop larmarked to the yellow one describedare also similar. in the qualitative Quantitative hazard assessment interpolated. However, in order to model a - intensity, a very large amount of detailed Inshown. Figure A hazard 14 the map process may be of deterministic development data is required and that is often not availa of(showing a hazard the map distribution using quantitative of the intensity data is ble.should Therefore, be used. if theAccording development to this, of expertsuch a map is not possible, the second alternative 24 25 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future Figure 17. Consideration of changes in climate and in the society and the economy is essential in risk assessment (Malet et al., 2012) - of global change in the common risk as- nomic factors, mostly land use changes in Figuresessment 17 methodology. demonstrates The the considerationinner frame inthe vulnerability study area. These will depend changes on can socio-eco also be describes the current situation, whereas the modelled or they can be assessed by using Figure 15. General workflow for quantitative impact assessment and mapping outer frames describe the situation for fu- - - to assess the change in hazard based on, for spatialernments. development In case models, plans fromdata ormunicipali informa- tureexample, scenarios climatic (e.g. change 2050 or models 2100). thatIn order can ties,tion regionalrequired governments for assessing or the national change gov in - tion, temperature etc.) or the hazard itself the exit strategy has to be used, which is modelmay be the used. weather On the othervariable hand, (e.g. the precipita changes hazard and vulnerability are not available,

based on expert judgment (Figure 18).

Figure 16. Quantitative risk assessment and mapping

3.2.5. Consideration of climate - change and future scenarios nerability, changes in the latter will lead to Aschanges risk is in a risk. combination Global change of hazard (meaning and vul en- change does not depend only on the pro- economic change) should be considered as The severity of the impacts of climate vironmentalpart of risk assessment and climate, and as management. well as socio- cess itself but also on the level and spatial Figure 18. Consideration of Global change for future risk assessment distribution of vulnerability and exposure. 26 27 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future - 4. EXECUTION OF RISK ASSESSMENT Forthe amethodology more detailed for description different hazard of the meth types AT PILOT AREA LEVEL odology, as well as for the modification of

(floods,of the methodology heat waves, thatdrought, can be extreme found in wind the andMethodology wildfire) pleasedocument. consult the full version The Common Risk Assessment methodol- and its consequences. In a parallel process, 2 NDGDM produced a series of maps includ- ing hazard, impact and risk maps for the ogyEach described case study in area the preparedprevious achapter risk matrix was appliedfocusing in on six the case hazard study that areas they (Figure chose 19). as - - specificnized. scenario for each case study area. oped a risk scenario describing the hazard Finally, all risk products have been harmo the most relevant for their area and devel

Figure 19. The SEERISK pilot case study areas www.seeriskproject.eu to obtain full

2 PleaseMethodology. use the link documentation on the Jointly Developed Common Risk 28 29 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future 4.1 Assessing AND Mapping Heat Wave Risk in Arad, Romania - my and environment are often significant. by the maximum value in order to make a comparable the daytime and night time clas Arad is the capital of Arad County in West- Between 1992 and 2012 seven heat wave Description of Risk Level Rating: Very high: Measures are taken (at the workplace, - have been recorded there. During these sification of relative impact for risk maps. area has events, the maximum temperature reached ern Romania, close to the Hungarian2 bor or exceeded 37 C˚ for at least 2 days. Heat- as defined by law) or by the municipality (health aid in public spaces); High: Measures der. The city that covers a 47 km waveseases and have might a negative cause health impact problems on people to are taken (at the workplace, as defined by law); Medium: No measures (Information a population of 147,922 people. It lies on with cardiovascular and respiratory dis transmitted via mass media) and Low and Insignificant: No measures. theMaros. High The Plain city’s of Arad climate at 110 is mcontinental above sea of time. level and it is crossed by the river Mureş/- the elderly and children over a short period Risk scenario: The risk scenario for Arad Risk matrix: The element at risk consid- - the territory of Arad county the “Red Plan” ered during risk mapping was the local with a Mediterranean influence. The Lun- terventions or severe medical situations in population of the city of Arad. The risk is based on a heat wave event (max temper- of all medical mobile units (public and cagarian Mureşului border, (Mureşis on the Floodplain)Ramsar List Naturalof Wet- metric used was the number of medical in- Park,lands situatedof International between Importance. Arad and the Arad Hun is aturecording during to the the risk day matrix above is almost37° Celsius certain. for should be used in which efficient response - two consecutive days at a least) which ac teams) and public hospitals coordinated. sary to eliminate the consequences of heat, the urban heat island phenomenon and it private ambulances, medical emergency terventionsas explained per below. 150,000 As for inhabitants the hazard, neces the atextile university industries. centre An and important an industrial power sta city- The UHI index can express the intensity of its own regulations and procedures for Also Public Health Directorate in Arad has with important automotive, furniture and- - ian power supply systems. The city is sur- is qualitatively equivalent to the likelihood- tents for sheltering people walking in the sotial calleddistribution Urban of Heat likelihoods Island (UHI) of extreme index tionrounded connects by large the agricultural Romanian areas. and Hungar of the event. In other words, according to dealingstreets duringwith heat high waves temperatures effects (setting periods, up wastemperature applied toboth qualitatively during daytime estimate and spa at the risk matrix an event that will be asso Hazard type: night. ciated with a UHI Index above 0.8 it has a of NGO’s (Red Cross, etc.). veryurban high heat likelihood island, as (almost higher certain).temperatures Heat providing cold water, etc.) with the support The interpretation and the use of the risk Risk mapping: frequency and intensity The identified of this climate hazard phe type- data is explained in details in GIS Best Prac- wavesoccurring in urbaninside the areas town, are where reflected the ininten the- for this case study is heat wave, since the sity of urban heat island is stronger. In this tices (for further details please use the fol- In the first step, two hazard lowing link www.seeriskproject.eu). nomenonits consequences has significantly on the population, increased econo in the- maps have been prepared for Arad, which show the distribution of the UHI (Urban last three decades (Busuioc et al. 2010) and case, the entire Arad city administrative heat island index) value in the municipality unit would be exposed to heat waves, but- duringthe city daytime centre where and at surface night (Figure temperature 21). It intervention will be focused on the zones is obviousincreased that by the the hazard heat trapping level is highereffect inof where the UHI index (and associated likeli high buildings, as well as by the fact that hoodpeople level) can be is abovethe affected 0.8. Based by high on temperapast heat- - wave events in affected area more than 15- acterized by high heat capacities, the asso- the ground is covered with materials char- tures, the heat wave would lead to deterio hicle emission and air quality. The second ration of asphalt in the streets due to heavy- ciatedstep consisted decrease of in making vegetation two cover, impact and maps ve trafficple and in people daytime. with The chronic number diseases of medical (heart Figure 20. The risk matrix applied to Arad emergencies/incidents among elderly peo- of impact expressed as a standardized in- enced by high temperatures. Life of people (daytime and night time that show the level andwith lungchronic conditions, diseases etc.) could would be disrupted be influ Description of Hazard Levels: - dex based on the number of interventions- (5) Almost certain: UHI>0.8, (4) Very likely: UHI 0.6 - health issues. of the emergency services per 150,000 in 0.8, (3) Likely: UHI 0.4 - 0.6 , (2) Unlikely: UHI 0.2 - 0.4, (1) Rare: UHI 0.0 - 0.2. Hazard because of thermal stress which intensifies - habitants (Figure 22). The number of inter levels have been defined by standardized Urban Heat Index. Standardization is made cy Situations Arad updates the “Risk As- ventions per 150,000 inhabitants in each- by dividing each value by the maximum one in order to make a comparable the daytime Every year, the Inspectorate for Emergen districtincide with of Arad the is high divided hazard by the areas maximum of the andDescription night time of classificationImpact Levels: of likelihood. county which includes measures for situ- value. High impact areas do not always co (5) Very high: more than 0.3, (4) High: 0.21 - 0.3, (3) sessmentations with and prolonged Intervention period Plan” of high for Aradtem- Medium: 0.11 - 0.2, (2) Low: 0.01 - 0.1, (1) Very low 0.0 - 0.01. Relative impact is a peratures. In case of multiple medical in- maps shown in Figure 21 as higher number standardized variable. The numbers of paramedic interventions related to heat stress of interventions is probably associated with per 150 000 inhabitants in each district were standardized by dividing each of them the characteristic of the people living there 30 31 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future more detail, risk in the Sega district is the - - (e.g.nicipality health of condition, Arad (daytime age etc.).Finally, and night time) two ers a larger area during the day. This can be risk maps have been prepared for the mu highestexplained during by the day fact and that the Gradiste high risk district, cov which makes the main difference between - as it is shown in Figure 23. graphically coherent and is comprised of The area with the highest risk levels is geo dayduring and nighttime night risk when maps, the has effects very particular of urban detached houses), gardens, small industrial social features leading to less interventions housingareas and, areas the (oldcity’s buildings, main railway block station.of flats, There are three districts in Arad with a The risk maps will be used by the local au- heat island are very significant there, too. - air conditioning for local people in the ar- veryorange) high in riskdaytime. level (markedAs for the red). nighttime, Moreo thorities in order to develop shelters with ver, there are three with high risk (marked teams may use the maps to identify loca- eas where the risk is high. Moreover, rescue- there is one district red-coded for very high riskof the level city andwith fouran estimated orange-coded population for high of tionsstrike with and anplan increased their actions need formore interven effec- risk level. These districts compose the core tion during the days when the heat wave - 60 000 inhabitants (40% of the population) tively. andpattern covering of the the impact area ofduring approximately the day and 28 Hazarddata. and risk maps will be further im km2 (61 % of the territory). The spatial- proved by using newly acquired satellite nighttime andis very night similar time is (Impact slightly maps), different. how In ever, the spatial pattern of the risk in day Day and night time heat wave hazard map of Arad, Romania map of Arad, hazard Day and night time heat wave Figure 21. Figure

32 33 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future 34 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment and risk adaptation on climate change

Figure 22. Day and night time heat wave impact map of Arad, Romania Jointly for ourcommon future

Figure 23. Day and night time heat wave risk map of Arad, Romania 35 4.2 Assessing and mapping - drought and wildfire risk in Description of Hazard Levels: Kanjiža, Serbia negative physical and environmental im pacts. Between 2001 and 2012, 12 drought periods were registered, with an average DescriptionHigh: -1.645

DescriptionHigh: 1.645

Wildfire hazard level is based on the number of occurrences of wildfires with 200 me Descriptionter buffer zones of Multi-Hazard in Kanjiža, ranging Level fromRating: 9 - 14 events with a very high hazard level to 0 events with insignificant hazard level. Figure 24. The drought hazard matrix for Kanjiža, Serbia The multi-hazard level rating is based on a combination of the two-class drought (SPI score)are ranked category highest and in the the five-class multi-hazard wildfire matrix. occurrence hazard scale. The cases with the highest number of annual wildfires during severe (SPI less or equal -1.645) droughts

36 37 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future affected, leading to the migration and Risk mapping: The risk mapping process lower breading among wildlife species started with the calculation and interpola- (roe, deer, hare, fox, pheasant and par- - tridge) and degradation of forests, lake ed precipitation data. tion of drought data (SPI) based on provid - and river eco-systems. quences are expected: Twoin the SPI case classes of drought were developed: hazard rating, high wasand In case of wildfire, the following conse verythe affected high drought crop hazardtype and level. its The associated impact, • People: loss of life, injury and health problems. Figure 26. Drought-related wildfire risk matrix for Kanjiža based on wildfire • - value, expressed in euros. The risk map and drought hazard erty, infrastructure, cultural heritage. was made by using the above-mentioned Man-made environment: losses of prop data (Figure 29). Description of Hazard Levels: • - multi-hazard map was created by using the - ity. InSPI the indices second and step, the drought-related number of occurrences wildfire Economy: disruption of economic activ In more detail, the following are expected The multi-hazard levels have been determined in the multi-hazard matrix. These haz m buffer zone. of wildfire, placed on the map, with a 200 Descriptionard levels are of combinations Impact levels: of drought index and the wildfire hazard. They range from In the last step, a multi-risk map were • insignificant to a very high hazard. in case of wildfire: made by using a combination of drought

The impact rating has been based on the magnitude of impacts on different land cover Physicalsuburban impacts: area, barns, Less stables, than 5 etc) persons will andbe affected. less than 5 objects (houses in the typeson water from bodies a civil and and wetlands). fire protection point of view. The impact on the land cover type and wildfire hazard ratings and data on Descriptionranges from ofvery Risk high Level impact Rating: (impacts on residential areas) to insignificant (impacts • - landpoint. cover type, based on its value and its - ros. importance from a civil protection view - rences in residential areas or forests. These cases need the most urgent emergency Economic impacts: less than 10,000 eu Very high risk levels represent situations with the highest frequency of wildfire occur • Ecological impacts: Wildlife habitat is af- - Hazard, impact and risk maps were pro- actions. The risk levels are ranging from orange, yellow to green accordingly. Green area can be reduced, wild animals (roe, ducedpality. The via maps collected clearly available show occurrence data on the of colour code means a risk level with the least frequent wildfire occurrence i.e. the low fecteddeer, hare, by wildfire pheasant in suchand partridge)a way that are its identified hazards for the Kanjiža munici est significance for civil and fire protection. forced to migrate, which leads to a small- It is an assumption that this hazard type Risk scenario: The worst case scenario - the wildfire events along the road network. summer during the day. Although any place sides agricultural crops being affected anof theevent municipality that takes placemay bein theaffected, spring the or er reproduction rate. In case of flora, be (wildfireto the glass event) garbage is in majoritydisposal andof the cigarette cases a describesit is associated a drought with the related SPI less event or equal with to a and can cause degradation of natural consequence of the human activity related return period of 100 years in the area and settlements and infrastructure (e.g. roads). byecosystems. wildfires, they affect protected areas most affected areas are in the vicinity of stubs. Highest risk levels show places along In case of drought, the following conse- • -2.326. The drought. will affect the entire thecity highwayand the dumpsite E-75 near located the settlement on the right of quences are expected: spatial distribution of the inhabitants in municipality of2 Kanjiža that occupies an Horgoš,side of the in theroad neighbourhood between Mali Pesak of Kanjiža and area of 399 km • Social and psychological impacts: given high air temperature combined with low groups of people (e.g. the elderly, people - Wildfiresprecipitation in the and area wind. may The be thelargest result area of it is most likely that approximately with health problems, low-income peo- the Kanjiža administrative unit and the Kanjiža.els show The places risk situated level is far lower away near from other set- that may be affected is not larger than Health problems of highly vulnerable - location of the identified wildfire events, settlements or roads. The lowest risk lev tion. - 2,000 people could be threatened by the ple) due to heat wave-drought combina As far as the preparedness of disaster man- tlements.faces such Typicalas road landnetworks covers and on associated the sites 50amount ha (as of thedamage channel expected network is less prevents than • flames. agement and national authorities are con- withgrassland the highest and semi risk levelnatural are areasartificial (scrub sur the spread of wildfires) and the greatest of water. High livestock mortality due to the lack • Crop yield reduction, in monetary terms, the main responsibility lies with the munic- 10,000 euro. The greatest loss may take ipal authorities and the Ministry of the In- and herbaceous vegetation associations). place in less than 5 hours. The peak of the- cerned in the event of drought and wildfire, terior, Sector for Emergency Management wildfiremum 4 hours. will be The reached risk scenario within considers one hour • Natural habitats can be narrowed and TheMunicipality. presented Maps risk can maps be forused wildfire as a quick and and the duration of the event will be maxi a loss greater than 30 million euro. drought hazard are a valuable asset for the 38 39 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment withJointly their for our local common units (e.g. future fire brigade). estimate whether there is a high, medium or low risk on the affected area. Analysis of the more frequent and detailed data about the beexact obtained time of bythe collecting hazard occurrence, and providing sur- such as easier update of local action and de- presented map results has multiple benefits, risk, estimated damage and precise pricing into account the mentioned hazards. facefor the vegetation crop types. and/or land cover type at velopment plans and legislation by taking of a higher quality of the future maps can Refinement of the current and achievement Drought hazard, wildfire hazard and drought-related wildfire multi-hazard map of Kanjiža, Serbia map of Kanjiža, multi-hazard wildfire and drought-related hazard wildfire hazard, Drought Figure 27. Figure

40 41 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future 42 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment and risk adaptation on climate change

Figure 28. Drought and drought-related wildfire impact map of Kanjiža, Serbia Jointly for ourcommon future

Figure 29. Drought and drought-related wildfire risk map of Kanjiža, Serbia 43 4.3 Assessing and mapping quences in the pilot area. In recent years, flood risk in Sarajevo – Ilidža, - Description of Hazard Levels: The hazard is described by twenty- and hundred- year Bosnia and Herzegovina fall and in some cases sudden snow melting. floodsThe precipitation have been triggeredregime shows by extreme an increase rain Description of Impact Levels: The impact categorization of building types has been - in the intensity of rainfall, i.e. more rainfall in flood return periods.

The municipality of Ilidža is the largest sub- madedeserted from areas a civil with protection low impact. point of view, with a focus on residential population. urb of Sarajevo (the capital of Bosnia and- shorterthe municipality, time intervals, where causing it is also flash combined floods Building types range from public and residential buildings with a very high impact to Herzegovinaple (according and to the preliminarycentre of Sarajevo data of Can the inwith higher drainage parts problemsand floods and in lowerinland parts excess of Description of Risk Level Rating: - ton). Ilidža has a population of 71,892 peo - - 141 km tween October and April, due to which there dium risk (alert) and low risk (no action).Risk levels are associated with the following emer but2013 the census), 2town isits surrounded administrative by areamountains, covers water. Heavy rainfall is recorded usually be gency actions: Very high risk (evacuation); High risk (flood protection activities); Me . The average altitude is 503 m asl.,- frequent episodes of rapid snow melting on isthe a steephigh groundwaterslopes of the mountains level. There surround are also- Risk scenario: The scenario is based on - mate in the area is moderate continental and sion of the hazard map. The impact map the highest peak rising to 1504 m. The cli which resulted in creation of the final ver- akm flood that may be caused by to heavy- - mountainous. River Željeznica, a tributary- ing the Ilidža municipality. - precipitation2 or rapid snow melt. A 10.73 shows the vulnerability of different build skirts. The protected area around its spring of River Bosna, passes through the centre of Betweenfecting almost 2009 the and entire 2013, municipality. floods occurred In autumn area and expected the end to beof affectedwinter. Theby flood time ing types in case of flooding; the impact lev (Vrelo Bosne) is the main source of drinking Ilidža, while Bosna itself begins on its out almost every year even more than once, af ing. The event will take place between late- elsthe have pilot been area. formulated The risk matrix by referring has been to thede- expert opinion of civil protection units in - December 2010, rapid snow melting caused of onset is 1-2 days and the span of flood based analysis. The buildings outside the water for Sarajevo City. The forest cover of large-scale flooding in the lower part of- ing 4 to 8 days. After 8 continuous days of veloped and used for the building polygon effect on the town’s economy and tourism, Ilidža exceeds 50%, while arable land occu the municipality. Around 200 houses were flooding 12,000 people are expected to be excluded from the analysis and marked as pies around 20%. The war had a devastating flooded and traffic was interrupted on sev affected (2,180 children and 1,800 elderly).- maximum extent flooding area have been eralbut considerablelocal roads. Due damage to the to efficient houses reaction and be- Moreover,plexes. Water 2,250 and buildingselectricity aresupply expected of the but today it is slowly recovering. Sarajevo oflongings civil protection, as well as thereagricultural were no produce casualties, was toarea be is flooded, also expected including to be 4 industrialaffected. Land com- insignificant.buildings situated The in vector-based the inundation risk areas. map InternationalHazard type: Airport is located near Ilidža. - recorded. slides and agricultural land degradation is thus shows risk levels of different types of to be expected. Besides, the population in Flood is the type of natural - Risk matrix: hazard that has the most significant conse A significant part of the pilot area is located onpopulation flat terrain and onresidential Sarajevo areas, Plain industri (Saraje- thepsychological affected area well-being is poor soof thethe flood affected will vskoal, cultural, polje). sport It is where and agricultural the majority facilities, of the havecommunity. a significant impact on the social and - network, water streams belong to the basin etc. are concentrated. There is a dense river The existing preventive measures are man - aged by 17 members of staff, whereas 68 of the river Sava. These are the river Bosna people are responsible for regular flood and its tributaries: Željeznica, Miljacka, Do protection. Moreover, there are 103 staff brinja and Zujevina. Most of these rivers do members responsible for emergency flood not have regulated riverbeds, which often Risk mapping: leads to flooding of settlements situated - area with homogenous high along the river banks. Figure 30. Hazard and risk matrix for Sarajevo - Ilidža, Bosnia and Herzegovina turn period. An Hazardinundation mapping map has is based been risk areas spreading2 on both sides of the on a twenty- and hundred-year flood re A 10.73 km - of the maximum extent of inundation for producedthe two return first, whichperiods. showed This map the polygonshas been riverpublic Bosna buildings, is the some most affectedindustrial by floodstruc- made more detailed by using borderlines of ing.tures There and agriculture are mostly familyareas there. houses, The several most building polygons. Each building inside the - maximum extent inundation area has been vulnerable settlements in the Municipal ity of Ilidža are Stup and Otes on the right 44 assigned the appropriate level of hazard, bank of the river Željeznica; and Osjek and 45 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future cation of locations where the highest pri-

Blažuj on the left bank of the river Bosna. The above-mentioned rivers just flow into orityeither should through be givenmitigation to protection or emergency of the the River Bosna in the high risk area. civilian population and their belongings, basis for these agencies as well as other re- The impact of floods on agricultural land is actions. These pilot maps may serve as a damage to residential, business and com- the most severe, as they destroy crops and management agencies) to build their own damage farmland. Also, there is evident lated agencies on a higher level (like water facilities, waterbeds, embankments along mercial structures, various water supply capacityas part of for this development project. of maps for other and other infrastructure. The ultimate con- areas by using the methodology developed the rivers, roads, communication networks,- tion of people and property from threat- sequence of a flood is temporary evacua Higherreturn periodsquality ofand hazard geo-coded and impact population maps couldnumbers. be achievedThese additional by applying data more sources flood ened areas, however in many cases there is - simply a so-called “in-house evacuation” to The risk map could be used by local and higher floors. –quality and eventually of the risk the map. application of hydro - logic models – would highly improve the cantonal civil protection units for identifi

Figure 31. Flood hazard map of Ilidža, Bosnia and Herzegovina

46 47 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future Figure 32. Flood impact map of Ilidža, Bosnia and Herzegovina Figure 33. Flood risk map of Ilidža, Bosnia and Herzegovina

48 49 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future 4.4 Assessing and mapping Hazard type: Due to long and intense rain- flood risk in Senica, Slovakia fall periods, the municipality suffers from Description of risk levels rating: The risk levels are associated with the following cultural and economic centre of Senica Dis- moreprobability frequent of a floods twenty-year and flash return floods period than emergency actions: Very high risk (evacuation); High risk (flood protection activities); Senica municipality is the administrative, before.occurred Three during floods the last with twenty an estimatedyears (in Medium risk (alert); Low risk (no action). - Risk scenario: The scenario is based on - trictalso belongin Trnava to theRegion, municipality, in Western which Slovakia. has a cluding public buildings, family houses, ties are performed by an administrator of Besides the town of Senica, three villages 1997,sport facilities 1999, 2006). and an The industrial town centrepark were in Based on flood plans, flood control activi- . Senica is situ- a hundred-year flood that in Senica may ter Management Authority in the town of th and 2 town sewage plant could be also damaged, be triggered by heavy rain and snow melt. the watercourse (the branch of Slovak Wa population of 20,063 people. The total area th of the municipality is 50 km flooded. In case of extreme flooding, the- The Teplica river will overflow its channel - atedLittle at Carpathians. an altitude of The 190–325 area has m above a warm, sea ter supply. for about 30 hours (between the 15 Malacky), fire brigades and rescue service, levelslightly on humid the Záhorie continental lowland, climate close with to thean which would even endanger drinking wa 45 hour of the flood). The flood wave. willAp- ownerssubstances, of buildings protection and of others. water resources,Flood res Risk matrix: The risk matrix of Senica was reach its peak in 30 hours. The area2 that cue effort includes removal of hazardous Vulnerablewill be inundated groups occupies in the 3,353population km in which takes into account the return period proximatelythe area include 9,000 the people elderly, will children be affected. and population evacuation, disinfection of wells average yearly precipitation of 600–700 made by using a hazard matrix (Figure 34)- mm. River Teplica and its small tributaries andplans water in Senica, sources, public debris warning removal is issued and flow through the centre of the town. - maintainingimmediately after order. the According announcement to the of flood the production of car components, metal, tex- ofhazard floods in and the averagearea. Using water the depth multifactor (multi hospitalings (factories) patients and . Family many houses,public blocksbuild- Industry is the main economic activity: factoral approach) to assess and map flood- ofings flats, (schools, commercial kindergarten, and industrial health centre, build of sirens sending the water danger to be dominant on the surrounding large agricul- - third degree of flood activity by a network tile and food prevailis. Crop production is- hazardnumber levelof residents coming in from the buildings, the hazard a marisk trix and the impact levels, based on the retirementroads, gas, water home, and local telecommunications government of broadcast on local radio and television. - tural fields. The proportion of natural veg fice) will be flooded. Additionally, railway, uation procedure is based on the principle etation (broad-leaved forests) is fairly low matrix for floods in Senica was developed area can also be affected. There will be an The Evacuation Commission will decide aboutof the greatestthe method danger of evacuation. and the need The to evac pro- on the area. A recreation area at the Kunov (Figure 34) networks located within the flood extent dam lies 5 km away from the town. - in the following order: school, children immediateing water supplyneed for (and evacuation maybe also(especially food). videmothers support in households to different with groups preschool of people chil- of vulnerable groups of people) and drink dren, the disabled, sick people and others. to buildings, factory equipment and prod- Floodingucts is also of expected.cellars and Agricultural buildings, produceDamage to places of accommodation by designated may be destroyed and drinking water con- routes. Emergency accommodation will be - Inhabitants will leave the danger zone go age plant. Water should be pumped out of in primary and secondary schools. Meals taminated due to the flooding of the sew - and transport will be interrupted. Control provided in the local cultural centre and rants, as well. buildingsof water, gas and and cellars. electricity Roads network will be flooded is nec- essary. A disruption of the operation of in- will be provided in schools and two restau dustrial plants is expected and dangerous Figure 34. Flood hazard and risk matrix for Senica, Slovakia Sufficient manpower and resources are- people will need psychological support and dedicatedrial, technical to equipment performing and flood members - related of ammonia leaks are also possible. Finally, works. A list of vehicles, machinery, mate Description of Hazard Levels: The hazard is described by using two different factors: in control and rescue work with phone con- the water depth and the return period. advice following the event. out – in line with the national legislation the fire brigade and other people involved Description of Impact Levels: The impact is described as number of people per build- Flood protection is organized and carried- tactsRisk ismapping available.: ing. Single-family houses belong to the medium and low impact class whereas build- - been produced based on datasets related ings housing more families or buildings with uses that require the accommodation of – by the local and national government au- Two hazard maps have thorities,prise. flood commissions, municipali ties and Slovak Water Management Enter to different (100, 50, 20 and ten-year) flood large numbers of people belong to the high and very high impact class respectively. return periods. The first hazard map shows 50 51 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future the maximum extent of inundation for each return period, while the second shows the with the industrial area and although wa- willter depth be very will high. be high The it west will onenot affect coincides any return period. On the basis of the hazard averagematrix, aheight raster-based of water multifactor coverage, for hazard each also from the risk map, the risk in this area - residentswill be low. . In The this same case situation and as it can is obviousbe seen tor hazard map has been drawn by add- map has been made. The final multifac- the middle high hazard area coincides with dential and public buildings. The impact forbuildings the Eastern where high population hazard area.density However, is high ingmap raster shows values the distribution to polygon layersof residential of resi and for this reason high risk areas are lo- population, based on the residential and cated there (buildings represented in red colour). The authorities and the emergency on the risk matrix, the hazard and impact - public building inventory. Finally, based - services may use this map to focus their ac valuesbeen prepared. could be assigned to every building tions on specific buildings where the ma polygon. Thus, a vector-based risk map has joritypeople of has the to people be organised will be located in the areaand save and . The ar- preciousfood and watertime. Moreover,supplies for a shelterthe inhabitants for this 2 - Themogenous, affected mostly area covers on the 3,353 right, km but also on eas exposed to a high risk of flooding are ho will have to be provided. - - theily houses, left bank schools of the Teplicaand retirement River. The homes. areas Higher quality of hazard and risk maps includeIn more mostly detail, blocks the hazard of flats, map partially indicates fam should be achieved by using a more sophis that there are three areas where the hazard ticatedof the current flood modellingoutcome. tool – a hydraulic model as a tool for potential improvement Flood hazard map of Senica, Slovakia map of Senica, 35. Flood hazard Figure

52 53 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future 54 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment and risk adaptation on climate change

Figure 36. Flood impact map of Senica, Slovakia Jointly for ourcommon future

Figure 37. Flood risk map of Senica, Slovakia 55 4.5 Assessing and mapping the sued by a light signal system along the lake. Risk scenario: The scenario describes a of risk mapping – namely extreme wind, consequences of extreme wind summer windstorm could not be mapped on a local scale (on Hazard type: south shore of Lake Balaton. Extreme wind - in Siófok, Hungary hazard for Siófok is extreme wind associat- disaster event on the tifactor impact map is a synthesis of two The most relevant natural- scenario) will cause serious damage in thebase basis impact of the maps provided working data set).with Thedata mul on Siófok is a town located on the south shore ly black pines) and branches often cause speed (over 110 km/h, rare worst - case- the physical and the social attributes of the damage on roofs of buildings, electricity ed with thunderstorms. Falling trees (most mer weekend afternoon. The duration of cables and anchored sailing ships. People Siófok. The timing of the event is a sum structures (buildings) and therefore their of Lake Balaton.. With a It 17 has km a long population beach, Siófok of 24 are directly at risk, which is of utmost im- 2 ). The town: one shows the state of the individual is662 one people, of the mostits administrative popular summer area destina covers- portance in the tourist season. There are tions1255 forkm tourists in the county. In the sum- gustnumber peaks of ispeople 4 hours. affected The event on a will summer2 affect number of people in the buildings. theweekend whole when municipality the resort (124.66 town km is full of vulnerability, while the other indicates the The multifactor impact map of Siófok hard- - damage roof structures of the buildings. several past events with registered wind nerable group is elderly people. People in mer,, ten thousand Hungarian and foreign- speeds as high as 140 km/h, which could buildings marked red or orange, meaning sailtourists ships, is aroundpeople staying100,000. in Thebuildings main thatvul tourists visit Siófok every day. The town speed is to be considered a threat for peo- are in poor condition or whose build quali- ly shows (Figure 41) any concentration of liestown, at there 127 mis abovea protected sea level. area Thewith Sió small ca Onple swimming the open water or boating. even a 40 km/h wind - nallakes, flows marshes, out of meadowsthe lake here. and Southforests. of Mo the- highbourhoods vulnerability. where the Magnifying density of thebuildings map, An impact matrix for extreme trees will be most affected. Expected dam- Risk matrix: itmarked becomes red obviousor orange that is therehigher are but neigh also tyage is includesbad, or those damage who findto buildings themselves caused near town from the south, and a commercial areas where there are only few or a single by falling trees, debris or poor roof quality, torwayairport is M7 located with heavynear the traffic centre. borders There the is building in these categories. windthe estimate was developed of residential for Siófok population (Figure 38).and damage to power lines and interruptions of storm alerts for bathers and sailors are is- Thethe quality matrix ofis roofsbased of on buildings. two impact levels: The neighbourhoods where the density of buildings with medium and high impact a storm warning observatory in Siófok and The preparedness of disaster management traffic flow caused by falling trees. and the national authorities may be sum- of the lake but are located inland or in the marised as follows: valuescentre isof high the aretown. not The situated area onwith the abanks high As far as the open water area is concerned, - there is a storm warning system in use and ange) is in the heart of the town, framed by - densitySió Canal, of thehighly railway, vulnerable and main buildings road No (or 7. This is, in fact, the town centre with mostly information for tourists is available in dif- public buildings. This type of area stretches Figure 38. The impact matrix for extreme wind in Siófok. ferent languages (Hungarian, English and German).people in sailing Moreover boats a frequencyin the case (NAVIN of high - FO) broadcasts important information for out to the south over the main road, where on standby from March to October and thewith buildings a high density marked of orangeresidential are buildings8-10 sto windalert the speeds. rest Moreover,of the year. rescue On land, teams there are reyexposed blocks to of a flats.high impactAnother of neighbourhood wind (marked DescriptionImpact Level of 1 Impact Levels: are also general warnings and information red) is located in the south-east of Siófok. for the public. Special rules apply in case Lower income residents and poorer quality older design or showssurrounded the vulnerability by trees) and of highbuildings, (old roof especially with loose roofs tiles and or is damaged)divided in housing characterise this area. The area de- threebased classes: on expert insignificant opinion. (modern roof), low (roof in an acceptable condition, but of body is in direct contact with organizers - Impact Level 2 of large events, the disaster management- tural and social reasons. In addition to the building. serves special attention both for infrastruc consists of five classes defined based on the number of people per of mass events. The civil protection de - Description of Multifactor Impact Level Rating: - partmentexperts with of Siófokthe possibility has 30 experts of securing and the above-mentioned neighbourhoods where disaster management office has at least 50 highly(mainly vulnerablehotels and buildingspublic buildings are concen near The multifactor impact level is as of an emergency. trated,the beaches) there aremarked only orangeindividual and buildings less fre- sociatedetc. with measures that will be taken when very high or high level is reached e.g. support of even more professionals in case quently red on the multifactor impact map Instead of a risk map, a make owners aware of the risk, suggest roof repairs, monitor large trees in the vicinity Risk mapping: of Siófok. multifactor impact map has been made for the Siófok pilot area. The reason is that the The quality and the nature of the input data extreme wind hazard – one basic element -

56 could be improved for the multifactor im 57 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future pact map. Apart from the general condition which are potential source of threats in time of thunderstorms. By taking into ac- material, the roof area, the building’s age count data on hazard factor, such as wind ofand the height houses, could the typebe also of the included roof covering in the direction and wind speed (which would scope of the mapping exercise. The condi- prerequisite particular measurements and tion of other elements at risk could be also modelling of local wind conditions), full- considered such as trees and power lines

fledged risk maps could be prepared. Impact map of Siófok, Hungary based on building (roof)Impact map of Siófok, qualitybuildings of residential Figure 39. Figure

58 59 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future 60 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment and risk adaptation on climate change

Figure 40. Impact map based on residential population in Siófok, Hungary Jointly for ourcommon future

Figure 41. Multifactor impact map on extreme wind in Siófok, Hungary based on both roof quality and residential population estimate 61 4.6 ASSESSING and mapping Hazard type: The territory of the munici- Risk scenario: The Authorities responsible for the design wildfire risk in Velingrad, and implementation of disaster manage- Bulgaria and cause damageWildfires to the inforest the and area eco- are ment measures are: the mayor of the mu- palityspring is and covered summer with temperatures, forest to a large together extent, verysystems. common Due to (they the occurcharacteristics once a month) of the Velingrad is the largest municipality in mainly with inflammable pine trees. Rising geography of the municipality (moun- - nicipality, regional governor, the bodies of The municipality consists of two towns, Ve- with human negligence increase wildfire the Chief Directorate for Fire Safety and Pazardzhik Province in Southern Bulgaria. hazard. During the summer, wildfires occur tainous terrain) fire brigade vehicles fre Civil Protection, the Bulgarian Red Cross, almostcases, caused every day.unintentionally Fires frequently by tourists erupt orin quently6 years. The cannot risk easily scenario reach is based the fire. on Thethe the Executive Forest Agency of the Ministry with a popula- There is an annual order (order of the re- lingrad and Sarnitsa, as well2 as 22 villages. the vicinity of roads or settlements, in most worst case event is likely to happen every of Agriculture and Food. of conif- It covers an area of 818 km - - woodcutters.ecosystem and Yet, precious wildfires timber. are The becoming moun- 2002 wildfire that lasted for 34 2hours and tionley in of the 40,707 Rhodope people Mountains and its administrative at an altitude gionalests and governor their timely of the extinguishing Pazardzik regionin the more and more devastating, destroying the- destroyedkm of deciduous more thanforest. 0.25 The kmarea that will area Velingrad is located in the Chepino val regardingPazardzik region) prevention that ofis issued fires in in thethe forbe- beerous affected2 forest is (pines)situated and west more of the than town 0.17 of ginning of April. The following action plans tainous terrain makes it difficult for fire en ofmountainous 755 m a.s.l., with while a highthe average number altitude of sunny is are in use: 1,300 m a.s.l. in the region. The climate is gines to reach the site in danger. In 2002, of - almost 250 hectares burned down, while coniferousVelingrad – (pine the pilot tree) area’s forest. administrative The distance2 • Action plan of Velingrad municipality in days. Broad - leaved and coniferous forests in 2007 all the surrounding municipalities ofcentre. the wildfire The area from consists the urban of area 0.25 (hotels, km wereRisk matrix:affected by wildfires. occupy 83% of the total territory of the mu forest types and the distance of the forest • case of fires. nicipality,springs in whichVelingrad. also Excellent boasts five natural protected con- from the roadThe network flammability and settlementsof different areas. There are around 80 mineral water houses,of the terrain hospital, of theschool wildfire and аaffected local family area centre) is nearly 200 meters. The altitude Action plan of the Regional service of and wellness resort. fire safety and civil protection in case of • ditions have made Velingrad a famous spa were used in order to develop a risk matrix varies from 800 m to 900 m above sea level. fires. for wildfires in Velingrad (Figure 42). Thereach timing its peak of thein four event hours. is in early summer, Planstate-owned for prevention hunting of groundfires in thein the forests ter- early in the morning. The fire is expected to - ritoryfor every of Velingrad forest management municipality area - in andthis case, the state owned forest manage- ment area of Alabak. The plan is signed The affected elements at risk are: 500 peo ple,centre. 10 In residential more detail, buildings, the following two hotels,conse- onequences hospital, are expected: and one social services family every year and after that it is approved- Figure 42. The risk matrix for wildfires in Velingrad, Bulgaria • Physical impacts: no casualties and two bygrad the and chief the ofdirector the Regional of the Regional Service Difor- Fire Safety and Civil Protection– Velin tank that is used by the whole city of Ve- • Plan for interaction between the Region- injured; The main city potable water rectorate of Forestry Pazardzik. - Description of Hazard Levels: • Economic impacts: loss for business – tion – Velingrad and the state owned lingrad is located within the fire zone. alforest service management fire for safety area and of Alabakcivil protec - the Description of hazard levels was based on the distance

ofDescription the fire from of roadsImpact and levels: settlements. spa tourism in the nearby hotels; loss for • There are also decrees specifying safety forest burns, a medium impact inDescription the case of of a impact mixed forestlevels andwas a based low impact on the when type inof forest management – loss of timber; plan is singed every year. trees (forest type) and their flammability. High impact is expected when a coniferous Environmental impacts: pollution of the environment, smoke, deforestation, soil measures against forest fires, which are- aDescription broad-leaved of forest.Risk Rating: erosion, changes in biodiversity in the • Social and psychological impacts: threat given to the tourists, loggers, mushroom Very high: Fire is destroying a huge part of a coniferous fire-affected area.. marked. to residential buildings situated nearby and herb pickers. Moreover, the places suit forest and s less than 200 m away from roads and settlements. Evacuation is needed at able for firing up barbeques in forests are the affected residential areas. High: Fire is destroying a mixed type of forest. The fire is Risk mapping: municipality consists mainly of forests (co- less than 1000 m away from roads and settlements. Serious efforts are needed for it to withstaff about 190 people, 30 children, 60 While the land cover in the be distinguished. Medium: Fire can destroy any type of forest. Its distance from roads staff in hotels, 20 patients and medical there are also meadows and urban areas. and settlements varies. Low: Fire is destroying mainly broad-leaved forest and partly niferous, broad-leaved and mixed forests), mixed forest and it is more than 1000 m away from roads and settlements). 62 63 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future that hazard is higher within buffer zones order to identify the areas where emergen- The hazard map (Figure 43) clearly shows services,cy actions local should authorities be concentrated and volunteers and pa in-

around settlements and roads. However,- theent impactspatial patterns, of a potential since wildfireit is based shown on trols prior to the start of a wildfire should onforest the typesimpact of map characterized (Figure 44) by has different differ be intensified. is needed to be more precise and detailed. expected in the coniferous forest, situated However, the risk map is basically accurate, forThe fulfillingbasic data its should aims andbe more designations, up-to-date, it flammabilitymostly in the levels.southern Higher part impact of the municiis to be- without missing items with a better quality. Weather conditions (at least wind speed the highest risk occurs in places where the - pality. The risk map (Figure 45)shows that raphy should also be taken into considera- andtion. direction) during the fires and topog coniferousnetwork in forest the south, overlaps in the with north-western high hazard zones,part of namelythe municipality in the vicinity and ofon thewestern road and southern edges of the town of Velin- grad. This map can be used by emergency

Figure 43. Hazard map based on distance from human infrastructure in Velingrad, Bulgaria

64 65 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future Figure 44. Impact map based on flammability of forest types in Velingrad, Bulgaria Figure 45. Impact map based on flammability of forest types in Velingrad, Bulgaria

66 67 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future 4.7 Feedback from PROJECT ment methodology using a feedback form The partners pointed out that the use of the Not all partners plan to use the methodol- partners and lessons learnt that included the following sessions: methodology is expected to increase the ogy in the future for different types of haz- . Comprehension and completeness applied and that different stakeholders may are plans for its future use for hail, storms The Common Methodology for Risk As- . - sessment is a newly introduced product level of preparedness in the area where is- ards, and elements at risk. However, there of drought on agriculture and water man- . Applicability/Products/Advantages/Dis The purpose of this chapter is to present find a common approach to risk identifica- andagement blizzards in Romania. in Serbia, Thewildfires, Bulgarian the impact part- advantagescollection) the initial feedback of the partners on the tion,mate assessmentknowledge toand disaster evaluation. managers, Moreover, deci- ners are planning to use the methodology in that is open to improvements and changes. . FutureDissemination developments (Improved data methodology that may be used as a basis for thesion methodology makers, media will and effectively the general transfer public. cli As far as the Only a few partners suggest that the meth- comprehension and com- required staff and technology to implement other regions or at other levels in Bulgaria. more detail, the lessons learnt aim to iden- of the common risk assessment odology may be used for future scenarios pleteness Besides,the methodology almost alland the use partners the existing have data the improvement and further development. In methodology is concerned, all partners ap- (Serbia, Bulgaria) although in some cases to produce risk maps in the future. - more research will be needed (Romania), tifyment the and advantages intensions and for disadvantages dissemination. of the The partners also highlighted a limited num- methodology, the needs for future develop This chapter may be used by practitioners, pearmethodology to be satisfied works as with well the as comprehend product and- - local authorities or other decision makers have no problems understanding how the whereaskia). others find it impossible due to the - bermaking of disadvantages, comparison of such products as flexibility impossible. that lack of climatic models for the future (Slova The majority of the partners plan the dis- ingcated the that different a more terms detailed and description definitions of that the allows too much space for criteria definition All the partners underline that the fact that semination of the methodology at the na- are featured in it. However, partners indi wishingmay be used to introduceas a basis for improvements further research and methodology can function in absence of - matrices would be needed, particularly as modificationsas part of future into projects. the methodology or it - shops. In more detail, the partners plan methodologyfar as risk rating for is the concerned. development Risk ofrating risk The Common Methodology for Risk Assess- tionalto disseminate level through the methodology meetings and to workother - completed datasets is an advantage. How- agencies, such as disaster management and ever,cerned, as they far aspoint the out methods the drawbacks proposed that for - - indicatesthe corresponding which level risk ofmanagement risk is acceptable, actions improving future data collection are con- nicipalities, ministries (e.g. the ministry of mentners where has been they developed were asked based to describe on a ques their furthermore it associates risk levels with nication and access to data between agen- tionnaireneeds, expectations, that was given and towishes, SEERISK as far part as reason, risk rating has to be implemented by environmental sector, local authorities, mu havecies and to do administration mainly with theand lackthe lackof commu of data - the common methodology was concerned. ordecision decisions makers, that andhave can to bebe taken.only set For if thisthe in the electronic and spatial form (e.g. GIS tected area managers. The dissemination In the same questionnaire the partners pro- institution has a decision-making powers to agriculture), universities, administration at data). - rate the risk. different levels (local or regional) and pro eral meetings, emails, or introduction of the vided information regarding the existing As shown in the box bellow, as far as the ad- maymethodology be achieved in nationalthrough platformsworkshops, (e.g. bilat in vantages and disadvantages of the meth- the case of Bulgaria, in the national Climate methods that have been used in their area All partners strongly believe that they are- - Change discussion platform). until now to assess or simply to visualise the ableless, tothe develop Serbian all partners the products stress needed that there (risk opment of risk maps, matrices and scenari- risks, legal requirements in this field and the matrices,is a problem scenarios of incoherence and maps). between Neverthe the The Common Methodology for Risk Assess- odology are concerned, more advantages available data that can be used for the devel- Partners recognized that the common meth- proposed common methodology and the ex- ment should be disseminated and, based than disadvantages were pointed out. - isting methodology for risk matrices. There os. Having considered data gaps, UNIVIE de and expanded to include more hazards such a risk scenario and a risk matrix based on . veloped a common risk assessment method odology has many advantages such as: on the feedback from end-users, improved scenarios” (Serbia) ology. Each partner was required to develop were generally no significant problems in . “Wide“It works applicability, without a mathematical covering different model developing the products, apart from some ascollection hail, landslides, methods in debris the future flows, by andfollowing flash - the existing data on past events that would difficulties in risk rating, setting thresholds- floods.the recommendations The users may included improve in theirthe meth data- . “It can be used for a wide range of haz- provide information on the frequency of the fortrix. high/medium/low risk and the use of odology document. In this way, they may be - ards”and completed (Bulgaria) data sets” (Slovakia) events and their consequences. The part data on extreme events to make the risk ma able to produce higher quality risk maps in ners also provided a detailed description . - Risk maps were prepared by the SEERISK tions intended for different the end us- GIS Team, coordinated by NDGDM. The of a risk scenario, based on a past event. Fi a common platform for end-users and stake- methodology has been applied, it was essen- “There are various risk evaluation op nally, the GIS team of NDGDM developed the theholders, future. allowing The methodology them to collaborate should serve and asto . theoretical framework for risk assessment. risktial to maps. collect Since feedback this is thefrom first the time partners, that the in reduce disaster risk to a minimum. order to concentrate on the points that need ers”the use(Hungary) of basic concepts, not only with UNIVIETherefore, methodology the step-by-step can be tutorial viewed of asrisk a “Modularcomplete anddatasets, flexible but architecture also with sparseallows map preparation will be included in the GIS - data” (Romania) Best Practices document. further development or improvement. The 68 69 partners evaluated the common riskGuideline assess on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future • about the attitude of people: friendly, re- 5. THE social aspects of climate change: - Assessment of PUBLIC awareness and the survey covered 27 survey units in the • about circumstances in which the ques- preparedness six pilot areas and the surveying was com sponse rate is more than 80%, pleted by almost 90 assessors, during more thanwere contacted. ninety working The total days. number (Table of 2.). ques In- tionnaire is actually filled in: usually a eachtionnaires pilot was area, distributed 0.1% of local among inhabitants the sur- • standard on-street interview process, taking 25-30 minutes on average, - 5.1. Social awareness total population of the pilot area. The pilot about the difficulties of conducting the the Common Risk Assessment Methodol- Questionnaire survey in the veyingarea meant units, one according settlement to their e.g. townshare of in Sió the- survey:age) could In some affect cases, the understandingdemographic fea of Inogy the were previous introduced, chapters along of with this guidelinethe prac- pilot areas fok or an area with more than one settle- turesthe different (e.g. low questions educational and level,terms. older The tice of assessing risks generated by climate ment e.g. Velingrad Region. change related natural hazards at the local the following: - majority of difficulties were rooted in search project, such as SEERISK, to focus on 5.1.1. Aims and methodology level.the social It is (human)also important, aspect of in climate a complex change re pilot areas was to gain an insight into the and the consequences, in the communities, Theawareness aim of ofthe and questionnaire preparedness survey of the in thelo- cal population for climate change and the - related risks. Each pilot area conducted its asent well.social People and educational living in different backgrounds, socio- - economicunderstandably, circumstances, react to the who impacts have differof cli- plying a list of criteria that was the same for ownall project survey partners. and prepared The data an gained analysis from ap of and being prepared for the impacts of cli- the questionnaires were all entered into a mate change hasin various become ways. indispensable Being aware for communities and their institutions looking after the welfare and safety of people. The Microsoft Excel file in the pilot areas. All thebut pilotalso includearea analyses, lots of asdiagrams final products and data of thetables. questionnaire surveys, are text–based socialand preparedness aspect of climate of the change local inhabitantsis revealed - viaand an institutions assessment in ofthe the pilot level area. of awareness The iden- Bothpilot area)pilot studies were structured and the overall, in the samesynthesiz way: and the actual preparedness of local com- ing analysis (based on survey analyses of six tificationmunities can of gapsbe completed between in risk this exposureway and • raw results: the distribution of the re- Table 2. Basic parameters of the questionnaire surveys in the pilot areas, 2013 the possible solutions in the form of recom- sponses among the possible replies (in Source: SEERISK questionnaire surveys (n=1644)

• special aspects: studying the distribu- • In the framework of the SEERISK project, %), does not represent the population of the mendations become easier to find. tion of Yes or No responses, Thepilot areas international in terms questionnaireof age or educational survey - termsinland andexcess definitions water) ofunderstanding the different • territorial approach: comparison of the naturalwere not hazards so easy (e.g. for floods,the respondents flash floods, to the approach and behaviour of the inhab immense differences in the total popula- itants were studied by using the survey- level for. The explanation is that there are • method (non-representative questionnaire natural and social environment of the understand; • combined analyses: horizontal connec- tion of the pilot areas (Siófok vs. Arad) and survey), while the approach of the institu survey units within one pilot area, • sometimes respondents found it difficult tion between certain questions and the alsobeen that based the on availability - differs considerably of the census on data the tionsplanning and documents decision makersof the local was communi revealed- tospecial evaluate training, the level with of a safety. short discussion different contexts of the respondents. - which e.g. age representatively could have byties conducting (municipalities, interviews regions). and scrutinizing Inof eachthe questionnairecountry, interviewers clarifying underwent instruc- Basic survey parameters settlement level by the partner countries. The total sample of the SEERISK project Summary of the procedure of the By tions,summarizing terms, definitions the results etc. of the question- General impressions of the assessors (peo- questionnaire surveys exceeded 1600 completed questionnaires in the six pilot areas. At the project level, naire surveys many common and pilot area 70 ple carrying out the survey): specific conclusions could be drawn about 71 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future people’s attitude to natural hazards and cli- mate change in general. The international The role of institutionalized education as a least secondary school level education. the results but simply presents the differ- comparisonences among does the pilotnot evaluate areas. and examine source of information is more relevant for people with a high and higher than average educational level, but it is a weak source of

Figure 46. Evaluation of the influence of global climate change on everyday life for the whole sample (percentage), 2013. Table 3. Rate of Yes and No responses to the question “Have you ever heard - about global climate change?” (percentage), 2013.3 ready heard about global climate change) Source: SEERISK questionnaire surveys (the segment of the respondents who have al More than a half of all respondents think frequently think that climate change has - Source: SEERISK questionnaire surveys (n=1644) that weather has changed or completely 5.1.2. Synthesis of the ganizations such as disaster management questionnaire analyses of the relevantand the authorities knowledge are for sourceselderly ofpeople. informa Or- people recognize the signs of climate pilot areas – a summary tion about climate change for the smallest there are less people who are unsure nochange. effect The on tendency their everyday in each life.pilot Older area group of respondents. The role of schools is changedabout it (Table in the 4). past The 20-30 number years of peo and- is such that the higher the educational Knowledge about global climate change ple who completely deny changes in - and information channels through which it weather is rather low in all pilot areas. ents who see the consequences of the is transfered even less frequently acknowledged in this Young people – mainly under the age of level,changes the in higher climate. the number of respond context, which proved to be a common gap identified in almost every pilot area. about climate change, the majority rate Accordingabout global to theclimate survey change results, (Table people 3).in Among those who have alreadystrong heard or 35– have uncertainties and they more the pilot areas mostly have already heard very strong heard about the topic, elderly people, re- itsrespondents influence onrate everyday the connection life as between Among those who claimed not to have (Figure 46). In most pilot areas,

spondentsschool domimate.. with no academic qualifications climatethe possible change effects and but its they influence are still on uncer their- or those who have not completed primary everydaytain about life it. as average: they do not deny global climate change, the most important Forsource those of information who have already is broadcast heard media, about - papers also appear among other impor- particularlytant sources television.of information. Internet The andfrequency news of use of modern means of communication (mainly the Internet) is the highest among Table 4. Responses to the question “According to your personal experience has the weather changed in the past 20-30 years / since your childhood?” (percentage), 2013.

people3 under 50 and those who have at Source: SEERISK questionnaire surveys (n=1644) Indication of the year in title of all figures in this chapter is a common methodological tool in order to report the date when the 72 survey was conducted. This way information can be defined by the actual figure regardless of the text. 73 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future of natural hazards on their sense of safety Sometimes there is a marked difference be- tween the natural hazards indicated by the Evaluation of the sense of safety - respondents and the types of hazards which Evaluation of the preparedness for Most age groups are not able to determine - and the THREAT OF natural hazards as very or fully influential, especially in the natural hazards precisely whether natural hazards affect tions to be taken by the local people are group of people over 40-45. Generally peo risk assessment process in the pilot areas their sense of safety or not, but the feel- Among those who faced the dangers of nat- Thealmost most the same important in all the measures/precau pilot areas. At ple over 60 feel more vulnerable. have been selected to be in the focus of the ing of insecurity is growing with age. More people who think natural hazards affect or are identified in interviews and planning ural hazards in their lives, there are more refrainingleast 40% from of people dumping in all waste pilot areasin public are documents (e.g. in Bosnia and Herzegovina, than 30% of respondents feel rather safe taking the following preventive measures: Bulgaria and Slovakia) (Table 5). with regard to natural hazards (Figure 47). them completely or significantly. Also 30% of respondents rate the impact

Figure 47. Average level for the whole sample about the evaluation of the influence of natu- ral hazards on the sense of safety (%), 2013.

Source: SEERISK questionnaire surveys (n=1644)

Table 5. The most important natural hazards which can influence the sense of safety ac- cording to the respondents’ opinion (%), 2013.

Sometimes also markedSource: differences SEERISK questionnaire can spaces surveys and (n=1644)storing hazardous materials safely. The most frequently indicated meas-

bethe observedtype of natural between hazards the typecausing of serious natural possible impacts of climate change show hazardsconsequences. influencing Damage the tosense the economyof safety and ures/precautions aimed at mitigating the- destroyed homes are the most serious tan- cial resources of households (especially thatincome) personal are the competences most determining and the finanfactor for respondents’ actions and future plans. gible impacts according to the surveys. 74 75 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future The real effects of climate change on peo- es about the potential natural hazards and Highlights about the ways to get prepared for them, such as putting in roller blinds shutters on and feel the need to get more information ones having gone through such an event ple’swindows lives or can installing be observed air conditioning in the responses in the The depth of knowledge about climate are more sensitive to the issue; demographic• aspects: house/flat. There is a high number / and rate about the ways of preparing for disasters. change depends on age structure and • Amongeffects of those climate who change have been as strong, threatened there of respondents in all countries who regu- aboutPeople civilalso protectionpointed out duties/actions that they would and by natural hazards and who evaluate the larly control the physical condition of the like to get more information. • The majority of people rely the broadcast media as their source of information - age arenatural more disasters. people who have taken steps to - educational level; doors and windows, air conditioning, ther- - ensure a higher level of protection against munication channels, such as state and house/flat, or have installed weatherproof 5.2. Analysis of the interviews commercialThe majority broadcast of interviewees media relyto get on inforcom- Younger people are often unsure when mation about the potential dangers and • or educational level do not make any dif with local stakeholders and mal insulation, or have reinforced the roof. those who feel fully prepared – are mostly ference in this respect; local planning documents – personal experience is also a dominant Fully prepared respondents – or at least- evaluating the influence of climate change civil protection measures. In the followings segment of this guideline, media, local TV, radio or newspapers are Volunteering differs by gender, as domi- middle-agedpilot settlements. people who received second • - Inalso addition important to information state/national sources broadcast for the factornantly inmen addition take part. to educational level, ary school education, living in the centre of ness of stakeholders, along with a pre- communities. the findings regarding the level of aware from natural disasters, the respondents The weakest sources of information (less In order to have a higher level of protection parednessdocument analyses, analysis will based be presented. on qualitative The measures. Among those, who responded neighbourhood• -specific aspects: schools and workplaces. The role of mod- researchapplication methods, of these methods namely interviewcontributed and to havethat they taken planned or are toplanning carry out to actionstake certain with- a better understanding of the institutional thanern communication 15%) are forums/presentations channels, like the In at- People living in poor housing conditions in a year the most important options for - ternet, social media or electronic messages, • orThe in role a disadvantaged of local media social as a special environment source paredness for it and its local consequences. as ways of obtaining information decreases feel more threatened by natural hazards; It helped to indentify not only progress, but • reinforcing the roof, areas. level approach to climate change and pre measures/ precautions are: • careful selection of the construction site age structure of the whole sample, it is to of information for people living in rural special aspects: for a residential building, withbe expected the age that of respondents. modern means In view of commu of the- also shortcomings in these fields. • careful selection of building materials for nication will be less commonly used. were consistently conducted at the local a residential building, considered to be weak sources of infor- Volunteering The interviews and document analysis • installing air conditioning in the house/ • Education system and the authorities are project following the same methodology. flat The majority of the respondents (more than levelThe partners in the six conducted pilot areas a minimum of the SEERISK of four mation; - aimed at mitigation of the possible dam- should not store hazardous materials in • Climate change appears as a factor in the heads of different organisations, experts on 80%tion or of rescuethe whole efforts: sample) there find are it no important marked decisions to take measures/precautions disaster management and local decision Peopletheir homes are very in an aware unsafe of way.the fact that they interviews for each pilot area, mainly with to take an active part in disaster preven- on windows or installing air conditioning makers e.g. mayors. age e.g. putting in roller blinds / shutters somehow prepared for a disaster. The most differences by demographic features. How Thus, at least 50-60% of respondents are ever, more than 60% have never taken part in the house/flat; - in any prevention-oriented activities. 18-- • Personalsources (income) competence,, of household based mainly members on The interviews centred on the issues of common practices are following the official 35 year-old male and elderly respondents educational level and the material re disaster management/civil protection of the ones occupying higher positions in weatheraid kit at home. forecasts and warnings; storing indicated to have taken part in such activi and climate change. The objective was to survival tools, keeping medication and first ties. The majority of the people surveyed typically influences the level and type of see the general approach and viewpoint combined aspects: the obligation to formulate decisions on (moreTheir members than 70%) are are mainly not members young and of mid any- prevention. - volunteer civil protection organisation. - the local society, who have the right and Dissemination of information and The people contributing to the economy take part in relief operations when a real ternet to get information, there are more means of communication thewere priorities semi-guided in the (a domain list of questionsof local activi was dle-ageddisaster strikes:men. More middle-aged than 50% menare ready in par to- • Among those who regularly use the In - less informed about the ways to obtain in- ties and budget spending. The interviews (agedformation between and to 18 get and prepared. retirement age) are participate. people evaluating the effects of climate provided, which did not prevent gaining in ticular have confirmed their willingness to changeexperience as strong; of natural hazards and the The majority of people feel they do not get formation beyond the given scope) and the • There is a connection between personal that the summary below follows. - analysis was structured by five core issues

76 evaluation of the sense of safety – the 77 enough information from the officialGuideline sourc on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future departments introducing integration and centralisation aimed at making the system and include a range of partners from public “We believe that neither local authori- ties, nor the population are properly pre- Documentplanning documents, analyses focused such as on the local disaster level needinstitutions to be such enhanced as schools, and morehealth efficient centres pared to fight the consequences of climate regulatory and development-oriented- into the local disaster management unit change. We found differences between morenew management efficient. Nevertheless system slows some down partner deci- people of different ages and educational managementand strategy, plan,special the planning urban land documents use/reg intervieweession making from expressed top to bottom. worries that the level. Younger and more educated people ulation plan, urban development concept and„Local-level even workplaces. hazards generally belong to In all the pilot areas, local powers remained the analysis was climate change, namely, the topics of form master’s* classes. For are more interested in this phenomenon in the hands of municipalities, but in ex- than older or less educated individuals.” on environmental protection. The focus of us it is something important as we have treme cases they need to turn to the higher issue appears in the local documents, as a 550 pupils and the staff is round 100. We (a NGO, Arad, Romania). authorities. finding out whether this globally pressing- all need to know that various unexpected events can happen – it can be an earth- - Volunteering has become a key issue. Some dent in their actions, such as building struc- factor influencing daily life, future develop partners feel that people are poorly moti- quake, extensive fire or any other kind of event which cannot be foreseen. All these Irresponsibletures that do not behaviour conform ofto peoplethe rules is stat evi- ment objectives, measures and prospects. ed in local regulations or simple negligence 5.2.1. Interview analyses it easier to recruit people. issues are to be part of discussions mod- vated for volunteering, while others found erated by the form master allowing the participants to learn what is and what is - not to be done in these unexpected situ- inasters. private properties, which poses a threat to other people’s lives in case of natural dis Subjective evaluation of risk Provision of information on ations.” (Director of József Beszédes Sec- All partner countries consider raising the exposure in EACH pilot area climatesituations change and preparING ondary School, Kanjiža, Serbia). awareness of local people and increasing The opinions of interviewees about the local people for extreme weather their sense of responsibility to be of cru- tangible impacts of climate change vary citizens is normally multi-actor based. cially important. byclimate partners. change In are Siófok, detectable, Arad, Kanjiža they high and- TheCentrally provision determined of relevant and locally information initiated to Ilidža, they agree that impacts of global- Evaluation of the preparedness of There is general agreement among the in- ous weather phenomena. They also clearly citizens for disaster situations exercises, life-guarding at the lake) are - velopmentThe impact andof climaticmaintenance attributes lightlink all the this palpable to global changes climate regarding change. In vari Ve- actionsideally (presentationscombined. Cooperation at schools, between leaflets, ested in the awareness about and prepar- and climate changes on urban de- - - tervieweesedness for climatethat local change-related people are not natural inter hazards. lingradin weather and and in Senica,express however, the need the for intermore actorsone pilot is alsoarea a to must. another. However, The actualmain tar ac- Thedifferent opinions assets on of this the issue pilot vary areas. the There most viewees attribute changes to natural cycles amongis general partner agreement interviewees among them due though to the tionsget groups and efficiencyare children differ as strongly they can from be „People are surely not prepared for that link between changes in local weather and that the elements of critical infrastructure reached in an institutionalized form. An- (climate change), only a small percentage thoroughthe classic research interpretation which ofwould global prove climate the of the people are interested in this subject, change. - most live in the moment and they are not (e.g. provision of water and electricity, nual evacuation simulations are common interested in the future and the issues like None of the people interviewed stated roadsemphasized to ensure this in accessibility) relation to water have cours to be- practice,(clubs, extra but lessons) barely provide are less anyaccessible informa to destruction of tropical forests, desertifi- that there were natural hazards related givenes and priority. bodies Siófok of water and Senica(the importance especially tion,children while in the specific pilot areas. information Climate sourceschange cation, shortage of drinking water, acid to climate change. Their observations is mostly included in the curriculum but rain, etc. Here, people are not worried were about natural cycles and not about a Siófok sometimes the large-scale projects the local aspects and the consequences about that, they have not experienced it stable tendency towards climate change. ofare protective often parts dams, of strategic protective infrastructure works). In first-hand.” (Head of the Department of (water management of Lake Balaton, or the Civil Protection and Crisis Management - are hardly ever integrated into teaching. District Office Senica, Slovakia). (Analysis of the Local Level Planning edented storms. Other partners, Arad, for Documents p. 8., Velingrad, Bulgaria). - national railways) all vulnerable to unprec Middletional and aged local people media are might the most reach difficult them, These hazards are exceptions, existing only thermal insulation programme for residen- to reach according to the interviewees. Na example,tial buildings pointed and outalso the stressed significance the need of thefor Ldisasterocal reflections management of the national most if experienced. According to the inter- a coherent policy on green belts and their level organisational changes in - but this method is not effective enough. potentially, they will affect their lives the ner country recently, which resulted a Municipalities have a little competence in Legislativesubstantial changestransformation occurred of thein each organisa part- action, they print leaflets, advertise in local viewees, the population is not sufficiently roleexpressed in the their protection concern against for heatagriculture waves. newspapers, though they all have a person prepared for any emergency event. Inand regions the related like infrastructure. Kanjiža, the interviewees They found in charge of civil protection. All partners 78 tion of disaster management and the fire share the view that preventive activities 79 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future projects aimed at construction and repair - issue of local impacts of climate change. Cli- of irrigation systems, cleaning and exten- ment attach increasing importance to pre- - sion of irrigation channels to be the most quire a new strategy. Each and every docu ties have these specific plans, they rely on important of all. There were extreme situ- - mateissue, change although and the the European environmental Union directsconse therecommendations. relevant national strategy, conforming vention, namely, field exercises and stress quencesthe attention rarely of appear the member even as states a horizontal to the to EU regulations (objectives) and policy theauthority) significance and organisations.of cooperation The with disaster the rel ations,as a problem like in to Sarajevo-Ilidža, be dealt with. which have evant authorities (e.g. water management been recently resolved, but were still listed references with other planning documents issue and respects the related investment “Unlicensed housing construction occurred management– and if a document plans haveexists hardly , it is the any regula cross- needs of the partner countries in the 2014- particularly just after the end of the war 2020take into period. account The and conclusion incorporate is thatthe con the- in Bosnia and lasted between 1992 and development-orientedcept of climate change and documents conscientiously need to 1995. The population was exposed to the tion/land-use plan. regulation plan(s) do not deal with cause- hazards due to unplanned construction to function, location, capacity, energy con- Theeffect urban relations and territorialeither (no and explanations land use/ of their homes” (Gap analysis, Sarajevo- formulatesumption withinvestment a thorough projects general with andregard lo- Ilidža, Bosnia and Herzegovina). cal knowledge of climate change. an area) but use the types of data deter- are provided as to land use regulation in Local people are supposed to be pre- 5.2.2. Document analysis pared for the various extreme weather mined by the relevant construction-related events and should be aware of the term As the pilot areas differ according to size legislationout that the From impacts the of documents climate change and theap- and meaning of climate change. However, interviewspear in the local with regulatory chief architects, planning it turned docu- there are individuals in the local com- ments indirectly and with considerable munity, who commit the same irrespon- and territorial, administrative coverage, the delays.. Experience shows that the process sible mistakes year after year, in spite of examined documents consequently have of amending land use plans requires a lot the negative experiences. Most typical of different coverage and sometimes cannot Disaster management plans (named dif- of time. Land use plans and local construc- these is that they fill up the rain water even be interpreted in the same manner. ferently in the pilot areas, according to the tion regulations specify what not to do in a drainage system in front of their prop- scope of the document) exist for each pilot particular area and understandably include erties and build parking places on them. area. They are all stem from the obligations When there is an extreme rainfall pro- ducing a lot of water the buildings are they must conform in terms of scope and nolocal provisions plans, which about need what to totake build into and account how. flooded and the same people ask for help defined in the legal framework to which Thatand be is based the task on land of development-oriented use and constriction from the municipality. This irresponsible nature and consequently action-oriented regulations. behavior is repeated and causes damage content. The documents are operative by- in other properties too. (Dr. Árpád Balázs, ous origins. The analysed documents of planning documents (concepts, strategies, the mayor of Siófok). allowing to act in case of disasters of vari The relevant development-oriented local the pilot areas, which consists of the fol- - Kanjižathe Velingrad and Senicaregion discusses focus specifically the what on is programmes) have the same structure for floodingto be done and about groundwater, natural hazards while in that gen of- Climatethe SEERISK change project, is a specific not all topicthe pilot of sectoareas eral. The plans of Arad County and Siófok lowing sequence of steps: situation/status- ral plans of environmental protection. In- tions and projects. Impact analysis, among analysis, SWOT, overall objectives, specific fect relation, these documents focus on the including man-made hazards, as well. All objectives (development targets), interven indicatedcause side, to when have talking one. As about to the the cause-ef inter- Municipality have a wider approach and impact is still not that widespread. Local - updated in the past 3 years. These docu- others,consequences the kind of focusing climate onchange environmental are not a ofments the are documents not analytical have beenin a that revised they and do prominent topic in these planning docu- ventionsnatural cycles and measures,(e.g. decrease which of isCO the emis con- not look for cause and effect relations. The ments. The issue appears in the chapters trolsion overresulting human in globalintervention warning). affecting The local the on general e issues, dealing 2 nvironmental - plansclimate of change, Arad but County, they deal Kanjiža, with Sarajevo-the issue problems e.g. air pollution, emissions, de- adaptation strategy is not a core issue, nev Ilidžain general and introductions Siófok mention and the treat concept climate of with both locally and the globally defined- change as the cause of changes which re- erthelessadaptation even only therecently. national If local strategies communi (if- they exist) have started to deal with climate forestation etc. The interventions and pro 80 jects are hardly ever structured around the 81 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future 6. GAP ANALYSIS: Comparison between risk Aspects of institutional preparedness: assessment and risk perception of local Theon the actual basis risk of riskprofiles matrices of the risk pilot scenarios. areas in theThrough event these of a disasterrisk matrices have beenand risk defined sce- community narios partners gained information on the Information flow from the national level hazard (frequency, duration, intensity, ex- - Human capacity tribution of the exposed people, buildings, FinancialOther means capacity (machines, course books, etc.) The so-called “gap analysis” has been cho- The gap analysis has been be carried out tent of the hazard), vulnerability (the dis sen as a working method to identify inter- possible impacts and consequences of the Preparation of local leaders and institutions infrastructuredisaster (the number and environment), of affected andpeople, the Urban planning measures are needed. Gap analysis focuses byof these comparing products the are productsrelated to previouslyan assess- ventionon the gap areas between where the massive challenges adaptation im- prepared at the pilot area level. One part expected losses). Table 6. Institutional aspects in the gap posed by the natural hazards related to matrices, risk maps and risk scenarios, buildings, infrastructure and environment; analysis climate change and the level of overall mentwhile ofthe the other identified part of hazards, the products such areas risk re- preparedness of the society. lated to the outcomes of the social aware- Spatialidentify distribution the exact locationsand the levelof areas of risks ex- - analysis not only shows the extent to which hasposed been to the visualised highest viarisk risk inside maps the which pilot - local communities are able to deal Hence, with gappo- the analysis of the local planning docu- areas. Thetions gap amongst analysis local identified inhabitants the actions per age al - ness surveys, like questionnaire analysis;- readygroup: taken and the efficiency of those ac - holders. On the basis of these products and The risk perception in the population, peo- tential disasters, but also how efficient au- mentsby adopting and interviews a stepwise with approach, the local the stake pilot ple’s awareness of the risks they are ex- thorities have been so far in taking preven areas prepared their own gap analyses of posed to and their preparedness has been Affected target groups : tivemore actions. resilient Better to climate-related prevention and disasters. prepar edness will obviously make communities Gap analysis shows the missing link be- the actual and the perceived risk profile, as analysedbeen complemented through a questionnaireby an analysis surveyof the Local inhabitants (under 18) tween the challenges imposed by the nat- shown in Figure 48 below: presentedlocal planning in Chapter documents 5.1. Theand survey by inter has- ural hazards related to climate change Local inhabitants (between 18-60) and the level of overall preparedness of the local disaster management, the mu- Special target groups: local businesses the society for climate-related disasters. viewsnicipality conducted and local with public representatives institutions. This of Local inhabitants (over 60) Special target groups: tourists

lattertheir perception has given us is ansimilar important or not insight to the reon- Table 7. Local target groups in the gap howsults localsof the perceiverisk assessment the risks, exercise. and whether analysis The gap analysis prepared for each pilot - area in particular examined the prepared- ness of the local disaster management or- Finally,the possible the identified solutions gapsproposed have beenby each as signedpilot area, the appropriatebased on a discussionlevel of priority with andthe local public institutions regarding climate local stakeholders. The summary table in ganisations,change-related local natural government hazards. It and took other into - stitutional arrangements of a municipality, Annexwhere Ia showsgap is theshared problems by more that than have one been pi- account various aspects of the present in identified; highlights have been added- taken in the affected target population. ous pilot areas has been considered to be a and showed the efficiency of the measures lotcommon area. A challenge,, gap that is which shared requires amongst urgent vari -

Theof preparedness, gap analysis accordingdetermined to theproper, following suffi intervention. cient, tolerable, insufficient and zero level Figure 48. Gap analysis workflow Theresponses various that challenges can later be revealed translated by into the subdivision: gap analysis have to be met with sensible

82 disaster prevention measures. In order 83 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future to determine what a sensible response is, ally gaps are discussed and responses are the consortium partners found it crucial formulated in close cooperation of the local 7. Policy recommendations for effective to schedule meetings with local decision municipality and the local disaster manage- adaptation to climate change - - makerstentially and acceptable their advisors. for the Thepolicy responses makers ment with the fire department or civil pro- shouldin the local obviously institutions, be conceivable in order to and be fol po- tectionciety actors units. – intoInvolving the discussion other stakeholders process is - –also such desirable, as research since institutions they play an and important civil so - lowed up, later on. For example, an alterna- - Local disaster management (incl. civil protection organisations, tivenot beactivity introduced module into to theremedy schools shortage without of rolepretation, in improving awareness the raising efficiency programmes of meas Localfire brigades, municipality municipal emergency services) information among students under 18 can uresetc. The by facilitatingrecommendations data provision, shown in inter the awareness raising campaigns to remedy the lack consent of information of educational facing middle institutions; aged on the compiled results of the discussions National disaster management (incl. civil protection organisations, people cannot be introduced without the nextwith stakeholders chapter have held been in drawnthe pilot up areas. based consent of the local municipality, etc. Ide- fire brigades, municipal emergency services) Educational institutes (incl. primary and secondary schools, universities and vocational schools)

NGOs: non-governmental organisations Ministries

Table 8. Each symbol represents an organization/institution that could be responsible for executing specific policy recommendations introduced in this chapter.

The possible solutions to the issue of ad- Human capacity for disaster aptation to the challenges imposed by the preparedness is sufficient

drafted by the pilot areas through roundta- - changingble discussions. climatic The conditions most important, have com been- Thety of publicthe local awareness disaster managementsurvey showed organi that- all pilot areas evaluated the human capaci public institutions (mainly educational in- monmeasures findings to be have implemented been formulated in a town, in thisin a sations, the local government, and the local chapter.municipality, However, in a region the choice or in ofa country the specific will be a matter of further discussions among stitutions)information as “appropriate”* flow from or the “sufficient”. stakeholders. national to local institutional The section below takes stock of the identi- levels is satisfactory - - - fied satisfactory institutional setting, meas The majority of the pilot areas evaluated in- ures and actions at the local level. formation flow from national-level institu- tionsernment to the units, local and level, other namely, local public to local institu dis- Each symbol shown in table 8. represents- aster management organisations, local gov anommendations organization/institution introduced in thatthis chapter. could be responsible for executing specific policy rec tions as “appropriate” or “sufficient”; though the types of institutions which received the- higheststitutions rating was describedvaried among as appropriate” municipalities or (information flow in all three types of in

84 “sufficient” only in Hungary and Romania). 85 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future Available tools related to Different social groups should be ap- disaster prevention are the elderly, including information on emer- change in pre-school and extra-curric- proached differently. The elderly, youth relatively sufficient Kanjiža; safety education programme for- • Incorporate knowledge on climate lets containing information on natural haz- education and status in particular need Equipment and material like machines, gencyards and situations emergency and firstsituations aid (Senica); distributed leaf ular educational activities at the level groups and people with lower level of course books etc. were deemed to be “suf- oftopic the through primary games schools and andcontests. vocational Com- on hazards and emergency situations in schools developing pupils’ interest in the more attention. Competence level: media pilot areas. in schools (Arad); publications for tourists Organise local disaster management ficient”, although inadequate in half of the Decision makers are relatively aspects of climate change were again not petence level: prepared to deal with climate foreignassociated languages with these (Siófok). actions. Nevertheless, • institutes with professional organiza- Exercises shall include not only practical change issues - exercises more often, covering remote tions (disaster management, municipal skills, but also transfer of knowledge on tion needs to be paid to make the popula- • Establish cooperation of educational locations, and having a varied scenario. informedness of local leaders of disaster Interventiontion and infrastructure areas where resilient more when atten it sector) dealing with the issue of climate The level of personal preparedness and- comes to dealing with the consequences authorities, and the non-governmental climate-related issues. Competence level: ernment units regarding climate change of climate-related disasters in the Danube management organisations and local gov macro - region are listed below: change. Competence level: “Evacuation simulates only fire in the while decision makers in other local insti- Informing the population buildings and in practice it cannot be was evaluated to be 50% “appropriate”,, increasing the level of expected that everybody knows what to knowledgeable about climate related is- under 18 about climate change phenomena preparedness of people in general do.” – Velingrad, Bulgaria. tutions were evaluated to be sufficiently and raising their awareness about natural hazards suesSome by awareness only the 1/3 raisingof the pilot activities areas. - carried out by local institutions Themost lackpilot ofareas. specific This age information group is particu for the- • Organiseunteer groups or increaseand include membership aspects of cli of- are relatively effective populationlarly important under if we18 hastake been into identifiedaccount the in mate change in the training. Competence long lasting impacts of climate change on Theawareness majority and of preparedness our six pilot of areas local havepeo- civil protection and/or fire fighter vol ple to deal with natural hazards does not informing people about the consequences human health and property. Education of demonstrated that the existing level of guarantee a response that would be ef- Aof fewclimate kinds change of ongoing related activities natural aimed hazards at of ways: level: - this age group can be secured in a variety ficient enough, regardless of age groups.- provedfound that to climate be useful. change Beyond aspects the were obvious not change phenomena and the risks de- People have some general knowledge- • Acknowledge the solidarity of the citi positiveincorporated results into of theseinformation activities, exchange. it was • Include more information about climate abouttions, due hazards; to lack still of theypreparedness. are prone As to the be zens through thanking people, giving - local disaster management organisations having inconsistently in unusual situa honorary awards, etc. Competence level: rived from them into national curricula. - These activities are: courses organised by- Competence level: Ministry of Education tions in schools and local public institu- interviews conducted with local institu tions on self-protection and the protec- - tions have shown, middle-aged people are in schools; emergency evacuation simula • Organise public seminars with instruc stitutions about climate change, and public forums. the most difficult to reach. The outreach of protection, encouraging the population • Trainintroduce the the responsible theme slowly educational into the inlo- national media is vast, yet the information to maintain irrigation channels). Com- tions; presentations of disaster drills in tion of community property (e.g. fire Authorities have been relatively theyThe followingprovide has measures low impact are when suggested it comes to successful in reaching special national and regional ED, meteorological tobe localintroduced: issues and conscientious behaviour.

target groups calinstitutions curriculum. Competence level: local, petence level: As good examples of reaching special tar- - get groups, the following actions were re- • Make publicly available information- - health care institutions. ported from some of the pilot areas: public about environmental challenges more • Train the elderly to help them to be mary and secondary schools, especially seminars on protection intended for spe- withefficient. children To enhance into school information programmes effi come more resilient. Competence level: • Make learning modules available in pri cial target groups, highly affected by poten- ciency, parents should be involved along the traditional education system. Com- tial natural hazards (e.g. owners of holiday Compared to national media outlets, lo- use films and visual material along with to deal with a hazard, in public spaces andcal media activities (TV andrelated print) to climateshould bechange. more risk is high, namely, in Senica, farmers in • Place leaflets or posters, showing how- petence level: resorts in the areas where the level of flood (e.g. make brochures available in out 86 involved in the provision of information. 87 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future patient’s clinics and doctor’s surgeries; - Prepare segregated ments pay little attention to climate change neighbourhoods for a and its local consequences. Climate change make guides on how to behave during • Establish continuous exchange of infor- possible disaster event as a buzzword appears mostly in the analyti- heat waves available in tourist spots: mationtion, national with national-levelDM organisation) authorities in or- cal part of these documents, instead of being instructions on how to prevent forest (e.g.der to Ministry obtain ofmore Environmental information Protecon the - fires) Competence level: effects of climate change at the national - Severallike neighbourhoods) partners reported are thatnot communitiesprepared for viewedban and asrural one life. of Ignoringthe most climate important change hori in “The Executive forest agency puts up in disadvantaged neighbourhoods (ghetto- zontal factors, influencing all aspects of ur

forest signs: Protect forests from wild- level. Competence level: Ministries, sustainability of local communities in the fires. Signs alone are not enough to Identifying local hazards disasters; although these areas would be- thislong way run. threatens The following social are and recommended: environmental make tourists aware of the danger.” – consequences of the climate easilylowing damagedcan be done by to an enhance unforeseen the prepar event,- Velingrad, Bulgaria. suchedness as ofsudden the segregated flooding orneighbourhoods: a storm. The fol change change as a locally tangible phenomenon - • Take into account the effects of climate • Encourage the exchange of information ping relying on GIS data on urban struc- global climate change is part of the core plans when planning the future of an ur- with municipalities in other regions or • Usetures evidence-based, and surrounding scientific infrastructure risk map countries and inform the local popula- Several partners reported that even though in the status analysis of development - curriculum in schools and receives national ban or rural area. Competence level: to determine the most vulnerable sites. media coverage, its local aspects and con - tion about the results. Competence level: Competence level: unexpected natural disasters is increasing, Informing decision makers sequences are not sufficiently understood. - there is a certain reluctance to relate those • Consideras a horizontal climate factor change in alladaptation possible deas- about climate change effects Even though the frequency of extreme and proach to the dissemination of publicly to climate change and to acknowledge per- pects (location, energy, water efficiency)- • Work out a neighbourhood-specific ap- The decision makers of at least two pilot sonal responsibility. The following can be - velopment objectives stated in the devel done to remedy these shortcomings: fresh and concise information about local available information, paying special at- opment plans. Competence level: areaseffects have of climate reported change. that theyThis wouldneed couldneed tention to the people living in areas ex by data and statistics to illustrate direct posed to the highest level of risks. Com

measures: • Initiatecorrelation public between discussions, natural backed hazards up petence level: • Identifyimpacts of scientificallyclimate change infrastructural (e.g. need for be satisfied by taking some of the following - investments clearly resulting from the - Local experts, decision makers, meteor- cial solidarity and self-help techniques preceded by risk assessment and a cost- mation between disaster management ologists,and climate change. Competence level: • Teachthrough members educational of theprogrammes population aimed so reinforcing a protective dam has to be • Secure continuous exchange of infor- at people of all ages – children, adults

benefit analysis). Competence level: authorities, local leaders and their advi • sors. Competence level: of climate change to be carried out as seniors. Competence level: - • Program activities on the local aspects - Environmentaled to be done by impact an expert analysis team, of which entire - with school management. The internet ture in the segregated (e.g building and urbanis independent development from plans strategy is recommend planners. • Establishmate change forums related for researchinforming and decision its lo- after-schoolshould be used activities as a dissemination in a form agreed tool. • Continuouslyregular maintenance improve of basic the sewer infrastruc sys- makerscal aspects. about Build the arecent multi-actor findings strategic of cli Competence level: the local disaster management unit, lo- Competence level: tems) possibly with the involvement of partnership with scientific institutions,- the local community. Competence level: - • Examinefunction, location, innovative capacity, solutions energy on con the- cal institutions, NGO and the private sec Take climate change into account • Disastertions conducting management climate institutions related research should strategicsumption and of the project establishments level regarding adapted the tor. Competence level: closelyand risk cooperate assessment with and scientific should show institu the in local development documents

risk assessment process, using GIS tools. - to local circumstances. Competence level: • Involve all competent authorities in the link between extreme natural events with Local development documents (such as climate change. Competence level: media, drafts,town, urban strategic region plans) etc. specify It has beengeneral reported devel - Competence level: opmentfrom the objectives examined andpilot needs areas ofthat a particular the docu- • Revisetection, water locally management, relevant sector-specific agriculture, planning documents (environmental pro 88 89 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future forestry, etc.) in the light of risk assess- show that roofs in poor condition expose quires new competences and substantial ment results and integrate the necessary buildings to damage in the case of extreme measures, based on the maps in sector- - financing. In the partner countries public wind, filled drainage ditches in public areas financing is still scarce regarding these in

oriented plans. Competence level: are endangering houses; there is a lack of vestments.following manner: Securing funding opportunities Integrate the consequences fundsthere is for a lack thermal of green insulation; areas in towns. unlicensed Pos- is a key issue, which can be solved in the construction hinders flood protection: of climate change in national for small-scale remodeling projects from shortcomings are as follows: disaster management plans • Providethe municipal financial budget, and with material the help support from sible solutions to overcome these specific Being part a high security sector, an insti- tution in charge of disaster management is assessment for urban construction ele- - often centrally managed and its responsi- • Conductments (residential a detailed vulnerabilitybuildings, public and risk in- sponsors and volunteers (e.g. planting bilities are always, regulated by law and an stitutions, elements of critical infrastruc- trees, renovating buildings and public in

- frastructure). Competence level: - • - ture) with the identified natural hazards es and the know-how in order to imple- action plan that is approved by the govern ment.measures, Although the documents climate change laying does down influ the in mind. Competence level: Searchment climate for alternative adaptation financial projects resourc (e.g. enceprinciples disaster of disasterprevention management and intervention rarely • -

climate change effects to the region, which Revise urban land use regulation plans European funding, private sector invest relyimpedes on aproper comprehensive sectoral planning. assessment The fol of- withsurfaces, the aiminstead of replacing of those deficientmade of landcon- ments). Competence level: lowing is recommended: cover types (e.g. constructing permeable - • Take into account the consequences of crete; extending urban green spaces). - • Prioritise and support from the existing climate change in the national disaster Competence level: budgets projects providing long-term in management plans, always based on sci- • novative and comprehensive urban solu - regulation plan, on the basis of the risk tions (e.g. water retention; innovative mate modelling, and the lessons learnt Updatemaps (e.g. the height local building/constructionof buildings, build- flood adaptation facilities instead of only entificfrom climate research adaptation (GIS risk projects). mapping, Com cli- control). Competence level: - inglations materials, in order max. for newconcrete public coverage buildings of petence level: buildingto become sites). more Revise climate-friendly construction regu and climate-resistant (e.g. insulation rules of Integrate climate change adaptation principles in

construction regulations public institutions. Competence level: Land use and building regulation plans are • Introduce stricter controls by the mu- - - - common tools for keeping urban develop- nicipal inspection service regarding con ment within a relatively controlled frame struction regulations or find the right work.There However,is lack of almost discipline all partners of people have and re way to make local people and investors ported deficiencies in urban construction.- conform to the rules. Competence level:

investors to observe construction regula- Secure funding for climate- tions. Even though building regulations at- sensitive development plans and thelations local cannot level takekeep possiblethe pace climatic pace with im projects pactsthe changing into account, climatic the evolutionand hydrological of regu Planning and securing the future of any situations. The examples from pilot areas place in a climate-conscious manner re-

90 91 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future - - 8. References - Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter Available: http://w1.weather.gov/glossa governmental Panel on Climate Change ry/ (site last visited on 19.09.2012, ac National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin- [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, cessed 19.09.2012.). istration, National Climatic Data Center M.Press, Marquis, Cambridge, K.B. Averyt, United M.Kingdom Tignor and - H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University ment and mapping for disaster manage- - 2013. Climate Monitoring. Retrieved New York, NY, USA, 996 pp. AlexanderSupport D.Systems 2003. (EOLSS). Natural hazards.Oxford, UK: In: EC ment.2010. EuropeanStaff working Commission. paper on risk assess pacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. September 10, 2013 from http://www. Editor(s),Eolss Publishers. H. T. (ed.) Encyclopedia of Life IPCCContribution 2007b. Climate of Working Change Group 2007: II to Imthe ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-monitoring/ - Eastern Europe: Disaster Mitigation and - - tion from the Commission to the Euro- TheAdaptatin World Bank Programme. and UNISDR, 2008. South mission Staff Working Document - Prin- Europeanpean Parliament, Commission the 2013.Council, Communica the Euro- Councilciples of and the recommendations European Union for2013. integrat Com- pean Economical and Social Committee Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter ing climate change adaptation consid- and the Committee of the Regions. An EU governmental Panel on Climate Change, - Strategy on adaptation to climate change. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, Schmidt-Thome, P., Klein, J., R., A. and Brussels, Belgium P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., aHurstinen, Multi hazard J. 2006. Related ARMONIA Vulnerability Deliver and erationsprogrammes. under Brussels, the 2013-2020 Belgium. European Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, able 4.1.2 Report: Technical Glossary of- Maritime and Fisheries Fund operational http://climate-adapt. UK, 976pp. sion. European topic centre on air and climate Risk Assessment Language-Final ver http:// eea.europa.eu/ IPCC 2012. Managing the Risks of Extreme climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/ - - Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Assessing Risks and Reducing Disaster, Crozier, M. J. 1999. Landslides. In: Alexander, changetion to climate 2010. ETC/ACC change in Technical Europe“, paperBrus- Change Adaptation. In: Field, C. B., V. Smith,New K.York, 2004. Routledge. Environmental Hazards: D.Kluwer. E. and Fairbride, R. W. (eds.) Encyclope 2010/6:sels, Belgium. „Guiding principles for adapta Barros,G.-K. Plattner, T.F. Stocker, S.K. Allen, D. Qin, M. D.J.Tignor, Dokken, and dia of environmental science. Dordrecht: K.L.P.M. Ebi,Midgley. M.D. (ed.) Mastrandrea, A special K.J.report Mach, of Babbie, - - Working Groups I and II of the Inter- Eastern Europe: Disaster Mitigation and TheAdaptatin World Bank Programme. and UNISDR, 2008. South Learning. E. 2010. The Practice of Social Re EEA 2012. Climate change, impacts and vul Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: - search (12th ed.). Wadsworth: Cengage nerability in Europe 2012. An indicator- - governmental Panel on Climate Change sary of Basic Terms Related to Disaster based report. No12/2012. UNDHAManagement. 1992. Internationally Agreed Glos Cambridge University Press. Busuioc A., Caian M., Cheval S., Bojariu R.,- EEA 2012. Climate change, impacts and vul - Boroneanţmania (In Romanian C., Baciu M.,with Dumitrescu English ab A.- nerability in Europe 2012. An indicator- I. IRGC 2005. International Risk Governance mitigation—a compendium of current 2010.stract). Pro Universitaria, Bucharest, Ro based report. No12/2012. Council, White paper 1 on: Risk Govern UNDROknowledge. 1984. Disaster prevention and Delmonaco, G., Margottini, C. and Spizzich- Hay, 2005. Qualitative Research Methods ance-towards an integrative approach.- in Human Geography. (2nd ed.).Oxford, Geneva, IRGC, http://www.irgc.org/ - IMG/pdf/IRGC_WP_No_1_Risk_Govern multi-risk assessment and the harmoni- UK: Oxford University Press. - UNISDR 2004. Living with risk: A global ino,sation D. of2007. different ARMONIA natural methodology risk map (Del. for ance__reprinted_version_.pdf Guha-Sapirnumbers D, and Hoyois Trends. Ph., Brussels, Below R. CRED.2013. An ciples and guidelines. review of Disaster reduction Initiatives. 3.1.1). ISO 31000:2009, Risk management – Prin Geneva: UN Publications. nual Disaster Statistical review 2012: the Lewis eck ryman iao risk reduction. Denzin incoln, Y. S. UNISDR 2009. Terminology on disaster ICPDRand 2012.basin Danube‐wide understanding Study – Climate towards change Science-B Research, M. S.–B Methods., A.–L , T. F. ed.). ,Thousand N. K.–L Oaks, CA: Sage 2005. The Sage change by Reducing Disaster risks: adaptation study to provide a common 2004. The SAGE Encyclopedia of Social Handbook of Qualitative Research (3rd McLafferty, S. - UNISDR 2009. Adaptation to Climate - , erthe Basin. development Department of a Climateof Geography, Change G. (Eds.): Key 2003. Methods Conducting in Geography. question Country Practices and Lessons. Briefing EC and2008. designation Council Directive of European 2008/114/EC critical in of- Chairadaptation of Geography strategy and in theGeographical Danube Riv Re- naireLondon, surveys. UK: Sage. In: Clifford, N. – Valentine Note 02 8frastructures December 2008and the on assessment the identification of the moteSensing, Ludwig‐Maximilians‐Uni- WMO 1990. International Meteorological Vocabulary. Geneva. Switzerland. needCommission. to improve their protection. Official versität Munich, Germany. NOAA. 2012. National Weather Service Contribution of Working Group I to the Journal of the European Union. European Glossary [Online]. IPCC 2007a. The Physical Science Basis.

92 93 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future 9.AnnexES

Annex I - Gap analysis synthesis Summarized Gap analysis table

94 95 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future 96 97 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future Annex II – Glossary of terms - Disaster risk management - Processes for designing, implementing, Acceptable risk extreme climate events are referred to col preparedness, response and initial recov

lectivelyConsequences as “climate extremes” (IPCC, 2012). eryExposure steps (UNISDR, 2009). Degree of human and material loss that is People, property, systems, or other elements - andof disaster evaluating risk, foster strategies, disaster policies, risk reduc and- terms of human impacts, economic and en- present in hazard zones that are thereby thorities as tolerable in actions to minimize measurestion and transfer, to improve and promote the understanding continuous Negative effects of a disaster expressed in perceived by the community or relevant au Extreme weather event Capacity vironmental impacts, and political/social subject to potential losses. (EC, 2010) disaster risk (UNDHA, 1992). improvementexplicit purpose in of disaster increasing preparedness, human se- impactsCoping capacity(EC, 2010). See under Climate extremes. The combination of all the strengths, at- response,curity, well-being, and recovery quality practices, of life, resilience, with the The ability of people, organizations and sys- Flash flood community, society or organization that can - Disaster risk reduction tributes and resources available within a and sustainable development (IPCC, 2012). tems, using available skills and resources, to The concept and practice of reducing di- face and manage adverse conditions, emer be used to achieve agreed goals (UNISDR, e saster risks through systematic efforts to Flash floods are an extreme, though short- genciesCritical orinfrastructur disasters (UNISDR, 2009). - 2009).Catchment area analyse and manage the causal factors of lived, form of inundation. They usually last Assets, systems or parts thereof which are Drainage basin, an extent of land where wa- disasters, including through reduced expo- less than 24 hours but the resulting rainfall - intensity greatly exceeds infiltration capac ter from precipitation drains into a body of cietal functions, the health, safety, secu- Flood water (Source: ). people and property, wise management of ity (Alexander, 2003). rity, and economic and social well-being of essential for the maintenance of vital so sure to hazards, lessened vulnerability of people, and the disruption or destruction of a stream or other body of water, or the ac- Climate changehttp://www.wikipedia.org A change in the state of the climate that can land and the environment, and improved The overflowing of the normal confines of preparedness for adverse events (UNISDR, which would have a significant impact (EC, Drought cumulation of water over areas that are not - Danube macro - region 2009). 2008). normallyForecast submerged (IPCC, 2012). beity identifiedof its properties (e.g., by and using that statistical persists fortests) an byextended changes period, in the meantypically and/or decades the variabil or lon- abnormal dry weather resulting in a seri- Danube Region stretches from the Black ger. Climate change may be due to natural Droughtous hydrological can be defined imbalance, as a conditionwith conse of- - internal processes or external forcings, or The area covered by the EU Strategy for the quences such as losses of standing crops Definite statement or statistical estimate- to persistent anthropogenic changes in the and shortage of water needed by people ofogy the a forecastlikely occurrence refers to ofa futurea future condition, event or million inhabitants (Source: composition of the atmosphere or in land Forest (Germany) to the Black Sea (Roma conditionswhereas a forwarning a specific refers area. to a In potentially meteorol nia-Ukraine-Moldova)danube-region.eu). and is home to 115 http://www. Economic and environmental impacts Disaster and livestock (Alexander, 2003). Gap analysis useClimate (IPCC, change 2012). adaptation The sum of the costs of cure or health care, dangerous future condition (UNISDR, 2009). In human systems, the process of adjust- cost of immediate or longer-term emergen- The process through which a company or of a community or society due to hazardous ment to actual or expected climate and its cy measures, costs of restoration of build- other organization compares its actual per- effects, in order to moderate harm or exploit Severe alterations in the normal functioning ings, infrastructure, property, cultural heri- formance to its expected performance to de- social conditions, leading to widespread termine whether it is meeting expectations the process of adjustment to actual climate physical events interacting with vulnerable effects that require immediate emergency ) beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, tage, costs of environmental restoration response to satisfy critical human needs facilitate adjustment to expected climate hum, material, economic, or environmental andElements other environmentalof risk costs (EC, 2010). and using its resources effectively. (Source: - GIS and its effects; human intervention may - http://www.investopedia.com/terms A geographic information system (GIS) is a Climate extremes (see also extreme that may require external support for recov system designed to capture, store, manipu- (IPCC, 2012). Disaster simulation exercise The population, buildings and civil engi weather event ) ery (IPCC, 2012). late, analyze, manage, and present all types neering works, economic activities, public Decision making exercise and disaster drills of geographical data. - services and infrastructure, etc. exposed to within threatened communities in order to hazardsEmergency (UNDHA management 1992). represent disaster situations to promote Global change The occurrence of a value of a weather or cli The organization and management of re- mate variable above (or below) a threshold sources and responsibilities for address- Global change refers to planetary-scale - value near the upper (or lower) ends of the ing all aspects of emergencies, in particular changes in the Earth system. It encompasses more effective coordination of response range of observed values of the variable. For planetary scale changes to atmospheric and from relevant authorities and the popula 98 simplicity, both extreme weather events and 99 Guideline ontion climate (UNDHA change 1992). adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future ocean circulation, climate, the carbon and Impacts Pilot area ples are more often used than large samples. nitrogen cycle, the water cycle, sea-ice and Consequences on natural and human sys- - tems. Depending on the consideration of research project in which the researcher The three main types of qualitative research- Pilotpractices study or istests an procedures abbreviated to version be used of in a sea-level changes, food webs, biological di methods:od), the textual the oral (e.g. (primarilyanalysis of interview- planning one can distinguish between potential and a subsequent full-scale project. Pilot area versity,global change pollution, so the health, term includes fish stocks, popula and- based or surveys e.g. questionnaire meth- adaptation, adaptive and coping capacity means where the results are tested and im- more.tion, the Civilization economy, isresource now a use, large energy, driver de of- plemented ( documents),Y. S. the observational (e.g. partici residual impacts (Armonia EU FP6 project - pant observation) (Denzin, N. K.–Lincoln, No: 511208 modified after ESPON 1.3.1 Political/socialHay, impactsI. 2005). velopment,tion (Source: transport, communication,). land Questionnaire 2005, Hay, I. survey 2005). Hazards-project).Impact assessment use and land cover, urbanization, globaliza A method using questionnaire which is a See under Vulnerability assessment and may include categories such as public Hazard http://www.igbp.net research instrument consisting of a series outrage and anxiety, encroachment of the A dangerous phenomenon, substance, hu- Usually rated on a semi-quantitative scale of questions and other prompts for the pur- Land use planning territory, infringement of the international pose of gathering original data about peo- loss of life, injury or other health impacts, The process undertaken by public authori- - and social psychological impact, impact on man activity or condition that may cause ferent options for the use of land, including position,public order violation and ofsafety, the democratic political implica system,- ple, their behaviour and social interactions,- tiesconsideration to identify, of evaluate long term and economic, decide on social dif tions, psychological implications, and dam- property damage, loss of livelihoods and attitudes,tistical analysis opinions of andthe awarenessresponses of( events. - services, social and economic disruption, or Questionnaires B areabbie often, designed for sta Hazard assessment cations for different communities and inter- environmental damage (EC, 2010). Preparedness McLaf- andest groups, environmental and the objectivessubsequent and formulation the impli age to cultural assets (EC, 2010). determine the prob- Recoveryferty, S. 2003, E. 2010). and promulgation of plans that describe ability of occurrence of a certain hazard of the permitted or acceptable uses (UNISDR, Hazard assessments - The knowledge and capacities developed Theing conditions restoration, of anddisaster-affected improvement commu where- Hazard map by governments, professional response and certain intensity (EC, 2010). appropriate,nities, including of facilities, efforts livelihoodsto reduce disasterand liv 2009).Level of risk recovery organizations, communities and - - individuals to effectively anticipate, respond- ability of a hazard (or hazards) occurring mated by considering and combining conse- to, and recover from, the impacts of likely, Representative sampling Type of a map that portrays levels of prob risk factors (UNISDR, 2009). imminent or current hazard events or con The level of risk is its magnitude. It is esti Sampling is the process of selecting units ditions.Prevention (UNISDR, 2009) acrossHeat waves a geographical area (EC, 2010). (e.g., people, organizations) from a popu- quencesMulti-risk and assessments likelihoods (ISO 31000:2009). A period of abnormally and uncomfortably lation of interest so that by studying the - of hazards and related disasters (UNISDR, hot and unusually humid weather. Typically sample one may fairly generalize his results ards either occurring at the same time or The outright avoidance of adverse impacts back to the population from which they shortly following each other, because they To determine the total risk from several haz were chosen (Source: - are dependent from one another or because 2009).Public awareness a heat wave lasts two or more days (NOAA, researchmethods.net). In a sense of disaster risk management: The 2012).Human impacts http://www.social extent of common knowledge about disaster - they are caused by the same triggering event- risks, the factors that lead to disasters and a quality of the same distribution of char- lowing factors: number of deaths, number orments) hazard; without or merely chronological threatening coincidence the same Samplesacteristics are as representative the population when from they which have it The quantitative measurement of the fol elements at risk (vulnerable/ exposed ele - was selected. By implication, descriptions the actions that can be taken individually of severely injured or ill people, and number (EC,Natural 2010). hazards and collectively to reduce exposure and vul of the sample may be assumed to represent ofHydro-meteorological permanently displaced hazards people (EC, 2010). Natural process or phenomenon that may nerabilityQualitative to researchhazards (UNISDR, methods 2009). andsimilar explanations ones from derivedthe population from an ( Banalysisabbie, Process or phenomenon of atmospheric, hy- cause loss of life, injury or other health im- drological or oceanographic nature that may employed traditionally in social sciences. Its cause loss of life, injury or other health im- Response - Qualitativeaim to gather research an in-depth is a method understanding of inquiry of E. 2010). pacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods - - and services, social and economic disrup public assistance during or immediately af- pacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods tion, or environmental damage (UNISDR, human behaviour and the reasons that gov The provision of emergency services and and services, social and economic disrup 2009). ern such behaviour. The qualitative method- health impacts, ensure public safety and tion, or environmental damage (UNISDR, investigates the why and how of decision ter a disaster in order to save lives, reduce 2009). 100 making. Hence, smaller but focused sam 101 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future meet the basic subsistence needs of the peo- Urban planning See also under Disaster risk management A technical and political process concerned harm and loss (UNISDR, 2009). with the use of land and design of the urban pleResilience affected (UNISDR, 2009). Risk matrix - The capacity of a system, community or so- A graphical representation of risk relating works, to guide and ensure the orderly de- ciety potentially exposed to hazards to adapt environment, including transportation net resisting or changing in order to reach and - It concerns itself with research and analysis, the relative likelihood of occurrence and the velopmentstrategic thinking, of settlements architecture, and communities. urban de- relative impact (human, economic/environ sign, public consultation, policy recommen- maintain an acceptable level of functioning mental, political/social) of a hazard or risk dations, implementation and management andRisk structure (UNISDR, 2004). scenarioRisk scenario (EC, 2010). (Source: ). A combination of the consequences of an A representation of one single-risk or multi- - Vulnerabilityhttp://www.wikipedia.org selected for the purpose of assessing in more The characteristics and circumstances of event (hazard) and the associated likeli riskdetail situation a particular leading type to of significant risk for which impacts, it is a community, system or asset that make it hood/probability of its occurrence (EC, - susceptible to, or unable to cope with the 2010).Risk analysis The process to comprehend the nature of representative, or constitutes an informa It expresses the part or percentage of expo- tive example or illustration. It is a plausible adversesure that effects is likely of toclimate be lost change due to (hazard).a hazard description of how the future may develop risk and to determine the level of risk (EC, (EC,Semi-guided 2010). (semi-structured) inter- 2010).Risk assessment view (EC,Wildfires 2010) (UNISDR, 2009).

- The overall process of risk identification, Semi-structured interviewing is commonly Wildfireal, high temperatures is a generic termand drought for uncontrolled following riskRisk analysis, criteria and risk evaluation (EC, 2010). associated with qualitative research. Semi- fires fuelled by natural vegetation. In gener- Risk criteria are the terms of reference structuredwhich contain interviews a structured have a sequence flexible and of fluidquestions structure, to be unlike asked structuredin the same interviews, way of all an active period of vegetation growth pro - vide the most dangerous conditions (Smith, against which the significance of a risk is 2004). evaluatedRisk evaluation (EC, 2010). interviewees. The structure of a semi-struc The process of comparing the results of tured interview is usually organized around risk analysis with risk criteria to determine an interview guide. This contains topics, - themes, or areas to be covered during the course of the interview (Lewis-Beck, M. S.– whether the risk and/or its magnitude is ac Single risk assessments Risk identification Bryman, A.–Liao, T. F. 2004). ceptable or tolerable (EC, 2010). To determine the singular risk (i.e. likeli- hood and consequences) of one particular Risk identification is the process of finding, Risk map - recognizing and describing risks (EC, 2010). hazard (e.g. flood) or one particular type of hazard (e.g. flooding) occurring in a particu across a geographical area. Such maps can lar geographic area during a given period of Typefocus ofon aone map risk that only portrays or include levels different of risk timeStakeholder (EC, 2010). A person or an organisation that has a legiti- Risk management mate interest in a project or entity, or would types of risks (EC, 2010). be affected by a particular action or policy The systematic approach and practice of managing uncertainty to minimize potential (IPCC 2007b). 102 103 Guideline on climate change adaptation and risk assessment Jointly for our common future www.seeriskproject.eu