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Mitimiti 300913 NIWA Report No: AKL2013-22 NIWA Report No: AKL2013-22 Coastal adaptation to climate variability and change: Examining community risk, vulnerability and endurance at Mitimiti, Hokianga, Aotearoa-New Zealand D.N. King., W. Dalton., J. Bind., M.S. Srinivasan., D.M. Hicks., W. Iti., A. Skipper., M. Home., D. Ashford-Hosking. For any information regarding this report please contact: Darren Ngaru King Māori Environmental Research Centre / National Climate Centre [email protected] National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Ltd 41 Market Place Auckland Central 1010 New Zealand NIWA Client Report No: AKL2013-022 Report date: September 2013 Internal Review by: ……………………………………… Dr Rob Bell Programme Leader: Hazards and Risk, NIWA Approved for release by: Approved for release by: ……………………………………… ……………………………………… Dr David Wratt Mr Henry Tahana Chief Scientist - Climate, NIWA Chairperson, Mātihetihe Marae © All rights reserved. This publication may not be reproduced or copied in any form without the permission of the copyright owner(s). Such permission is only to be given in accordance with the terms of the client’s contract with NIWA. This copyright extends to all forms of copying and any storage of material in any kind of information retrieval system. Whilst NIWA has used all reasonable endeavours to ensure that the information contained in this document is accurate, NIWA does not give any express or implied warranty as to the completeness of the information contained herein, or that it will be suitable for any purpose(s) other than those specifically contemplated during the Project or agreed by NIWA and the Client Contents Mihimihi ................................................................................................................................ 5 Executive summary .............................................................................................................. 6 He Whakarāpopototanga ................................................................................................... 10 1 Introduction and background ................................................................................... 15 1.1 Climate change science ..................................................................................... 15 1.2 Climate change policy and planning ................................................................... 18 1.3 Māori communities and climate change ............................................................. 21 1.4 Concepts of community, risk, vulnerability, adaption and resilience .................... 23 1.5 Previous climate adaptation research with Indigenous peoples .......................... 29 1.6 Research objectives ........................................................................................... 32 2 Mitimiti - North Hokianga .......................................................................................... 34 2.1 Mitimiti settlement .............................................................................................. 34 2.2 Physiography ..................................................................................................... 36 3 Human-environment research approaches ............................................................. 39 3.1 Complex systems theory .................................................................................... 39 3.2 Grounded theory ................................................................................................ 40 3.3 Community-based participatory research ........................................................... 41 4 Physical research methods ...................................................................................... 43 4.1 Climate change scenarios .................................................................................. 43 4.2 Sea-level rise ..................................................................................................... 45 4.3 Flood simulation modelling ................................................................................. 47 4.4 Flood inundation mapping .................................................................................. 49 4.5 Estimating climate change induced coastal flooding ........................................... 52 5 Projected sea-level rise and coupled stream flooding ........................................... 56 5.1 Sea-level rise ..................................................................................................... 56 5.2 Extreme flooding ................................................................................................ 57 6 Social research methods .......................................................................................... 63 6.1 Group-based interviews ..................................................................................... 63 6.2 Individual (and paired) interviews ....................................................................... 64 6.3 On-land walks and observations ........................................................................ 65 6.4 Analysis of information ....................................................................................... 65 7 Climate risks, vulnerability and endurance ............................................................. 67 7.1 Exposure to climate-induced coastal hazards and change ................................. 67 7.2 Determinants of sensitivity and adaptive capacity .............................................. 74 7.3 Climate change implications and risks ................................................................ 92 8 Synthesis and discussion ........................................................................................ 97 8.1 Constraints, capacities and opportunities ........................................................... 97 8.2 Managing future climate risks, vulnerability and endurance .............................. 103 8.3 Conclusions ..................................................................................................... 109 9 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................. 113 10 Glossary: Māori language ....................................................................................... 114 11 References ............................................................................................................... 118 Appendix A Flood flow hydrographs – Mitimiti 2040 AD ............................................. 131 Appendix B Flood flow hydrographs – Mitimiti 2090 AD ............................................. 132 Appendix C Sea level rise - MHWS1 - Mitimiti .............................................................. 133 Appendix D Sea level rise - MHWS1 - Mitimiti .............................................................. 134 Appendix E B2 Climate change scenarios - Matihetihe Marae ................................... 135 Appendix F A2 Climate change scenarios - Matihetihe Marae ................................... 137 Appendix G Photo Gallery ............................................................................................. 139 Mihimihi Kua rongo te pō, kua rongo te ao, i te kōrero, i te wānanga, pūtakataka, pūāwhiowhio, he marama ahunuku, he marama ahurangi. He marama ka takoto i te hau o Tū. He marere kura, he marere pai. Tēnā te whaitua nui. Nei rā te mihi aroha ki a rātou kua mene atu ki te pō. Ko koutou ngā pou whakawairua i noho mai ki tō mātou nei taha. He maimai aroha tēnei ki a koutou, otirā, ki a Aterea Campbell kōrua ko Patrick Martin. Aue te mamae e. E rere ana ā mātou mihi ki te whānau o Mitimiti i kaha tautoko i a mātou i roto i tēnei kaupapa rangahau. E mihi kau atu ana mātou ki ēnei tāngata i whai wāhi mai ki a mātou, i tuku mai anō i ā rātou kōrero me ō rātou wheako: Joe Adams, Aterea Campbell, Daniel Campbell, Lisa Campbell, Tunisia Campbell, William Campbell, Sally Cash, Steve Cash, Gerard Davey, Charlie Dunn, Aroha Harris, Andrew Kendall, Diane Kendall, Kura Kendall, Malcolm Kendall, Ani Leef, Charlotte Leef, Gemma Leef, Dixie Martin, Georgina Martin, John Martin, Peter Mingo Martin, Olive Martin, Patrick Martin, Chief Murray, Bob Newson, Spencer Penny, Lucy Ripia, Donald Ripia, Bob Stiles, Anne Te Wake, Karen Waiomio. He nui hoki ngā mihi ki te kaiwhahaere i te kaupapa nei mō Mātihetihe Marae, ki a Georgina Martin, mō tōna kaha ki te tautoko me te whakarite i tēnei kaupapa. Ki ērā atu o te hau kāinga i tuku noa mai i ā koutou kōrero me ō koutou whakaaro, e mihi ana mātou, mō koutou i whakapono mai, i kōrero pono mai, i manaaki mai anō i a mātou. Me tuku mihi anō ki te hunga i whakarangatira i te waihangatanga o tēnei ripoata nā tō rātou whai wāhi mai. Georgina Martin, Aroha Harris, Lucy Ripia, tēnā koutou i ō koutou whakaaro me ō koutou kupu āwhina mō te ripoata nei. Ki ōku hoa mahi o NIWA, ki a Tākuta Rob Bell kōrua ko Scott Stephens, ngā mihi i te āhua o ā kōrua arotakenga. E mihi anō ana ki a Petra Chappell rāua ko Erika Mackay, nā rāua ngā mahere whakataurite whenua i whakatutuki. He nui hoki ngā mihi ki a Greg Meylan mō āna mahi urutaunga whaiaroaro mō ngā iwi taketake o te ao. Me mihi hoki ki a Stephanie Huriana Martin, mōna i kapo ā-tuhi i ngā kōrero uiuinga, mōna hoki i whakamāori i ētahi o ngā tuhinga i tēnei ripoata. Ko te nuinga o ngā pūtea tautoko i tēnei rangahau i ahu mai i Te Tūāpapa Toha Pūtea o Te Whare Wānanga o Wikitoria (Community Vulnerability and Resilience (Contract No. VICX0805) me te tautoko a te kaupapa rangahau
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