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Urban Form, Daily Travel Behaviour and Transport

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Urban Form, Daily Travel Behaviour and Transport Urban Form, Daily Travel Behaviour and Transport CO2 Emission: Micro-level Analysis and Spatial Simulation by Jing Ma Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Leeds School of Geography December 2014 The candidate confirms that the work submitted is her own, except where work which has formed part of jointly-authored publications has been included. The contribution of the candidate and the other authors to this work has been explicitly indicated overleaf. The candidate confirms that appropriate credit has been given within the thesis where reference has been made to the work of others. This copy has been supplied on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. © 2014 The University of Leeds and Jing Ma Chapter 4 includes work from the joint publication: Ma, J., Mitchell, G. and Heppenstall, A. (2014) „Daily travel behaviour in Beijing, China: An analysis of workers‟ trip chains, and the role of socio- demographics and urban form‟, Habitat International, 43: 263-273. Chapter 5 is based on the joint publication: Ma, J., Heppenstall, A., Harland, K. and Mitchell, G. (2014) „Synthesising carbon emission for mega-cities: A static spatial microsimulation of transport CO2 from urban travel in Beijing‟, Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 45: 78-88. I declare that the research for these publications was solely my own work and that I am the lead author. The contribution of other joint authors was purely editorial and advisory. Acknowledgements During the last three years, I have encountered many delightful, memorable, and sometimes painful experiences. The change of direction (incorporating a new methodology of microsimulation) had an impact on my progress and made my life a little tougher. It has only been through the guidance and help of many people that this research can be achievable, and to these people I am very grateful. First, I would like to thank my supervisors, Dr Gordon Mitchell and Dr Alison Heppenstall, for their great support and invaluable advice on all matters relating to this research. Without their dedicated help, I cannot imagine how to accomplish this thesis within three years. Also, I would like to thank Professor Mark Birkin and Dr Kirk Harland for their great guidance and support on the microsimulation techniques. I am grateful to my research support group members, Dr David Milne and Dr Chandra Balijepalli from Institute of Transport Studies, for their valuable feedback and advice on the travel behaviour and transport studies. Many thanks to Dr Paul Norman for proof reading and his comments on this thesis, and thank Dr Andrew Evans for his advice on java programming. I would also like to thank Professor Yanwei Chai in Peking University and Dr Zhilin Liu in Tsinghua University for providing the main sources of data in this research. I greatly appreciate the help from my classmate, Stephen Clark, who invited me to a small group discussion on microsimulation. We often review and discuss some journal papers together to share our thoughts, which is very helpful. Also, I would like to thank my friends here, Faith Chen, Rachel Homer, Huifang Liu, i Yanpeng Jiang, Chengchao Zuo, Ana Pacheco, Holly Shulman, Ying Nan and Pengfei Li, who made my life in Leeds so colourful. Special thanks to my family, which has been a pillar of support. I cannot thank my parents enough for their unconditional love, encouragement, and care. They are always there to provide their unwavering support. The final and biggest thank you has to be to my husband, Guanpeng Dong. He provides me the momentum to keep going, guides me through difficulties, and shares my joy and sadness. I will be eternally grateful for his sincere help and great support. ii Abstract Developing low carbon cities is a key goal of 21st century planning, and one that can be supported by a better understanding of the factors that shape travel behaviour, and resulting carbon emissions. Understanding travel based carbon emissions in mega- cities is vital, but city size, and often a lack of required data, limits the ability to apply linked land use, transport and tactical transport models to investigate the impact of policy and planning interventions on travel and emissions. Using Beijing as a case study, this thesis develops a new bottom-up methodology to provide improved transport CO2 emission from people‟s daily urban travel in Beijing from 2000 to 2030. It combines spatial microsimulation approach from geography and activity travel research from the transport field and applies this in a developing country for a long period, where detailed data to undertake fine scale analysis of phenomena such as transport CO2 emissions generated by travel behaviour is very scarce. On the basis of an activity diary survey and demographic data from the 2000 and 2010 population censuses, this research first employs spatial microsimulation to simulate a realistic synthetic populations‟ daily travel behaviour and estimate their transport CO2 emission at a fine geographical resolution (urban sub-district) between 2000 and 2010 for urban Beijing. It compares and analyses the changes in travel behaviour and transport CO2 emissions over this decade, and examines the role of socio-demographics and change in urban form in contributing to the modelled trend. The transport CO2 emission from people‟s daily travel behaviour in urban Beijing is then simulated and projected at disaggregate level to 2030 under four scenarios, to illustrate the utility of this bottom-up approach and modelling capability. The four scenarios (transport policy trend, land use and transport policy, urban compaction and iii vehicle technology, and combined policy) are developed to explore travel behaviour and transport CO2 emission under current and potential strategies on transport, urban development and vehicle technology. The results showed that, compared to the trend scenario, employing both transport and urban development policies could reduce total passenger CO2 emission to 2030 by 24%, and by 43% if all strategies were applied together. This research reveals the potential of microsimulation in emission estimation for large cities in developing countries where data availability may constrain more traditional approaches, and provides alternative urban development strategies and policy implications for CO2 emission mitigation targets set by the national and local governments. iv Table of Contents Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................... i Abstract ....................................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ........................................................................................................ v List of Figures ............................................................................................................. xi List of Tables............................................................................................................. xiii Chapter 1 Introduction ............................................................................................... 1 1.1 Contextual background ........................................................................................ 1 1.2 Research aim and objectives ............................................................................... 5 1.3 Thesis structure .................................................................................................... 9 Chapter 2 Urban Form, Travel behaviour and Transport Carbon Emission: A Literature Review ...................................................................................................... 11 2.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 11 2.2 Cities, sustainability and urban form ................................................................. 12 2.2.1 Theories of compact development .............................................................. 12 2.2.2 Critique of urban compaction ..................................................................... 16 2.2.3 Towards a sustainable city .......................................................................... 19 2.3 Climate change and transport CO2 emissions.................................................... 21 2.3.1 Overview ..................................................................................................... 21 2.3.2 The role of urban form on travel behaviour ................................................ 26 v 2.3.2.1 First stage: literature pre-1990 ............................................................. 27 2.3.2.2 Middle stage: literature in the 1990s .................................................... 29 2.3.2.3 Late stage: literature after 2000............................................................ 32 2.3.3 The carbon mitigation potential of technology ........................................... 38 2.3.4 Summary ..................................................................................................... 41 2.4 Urban form, energy use and carbon emissions .................................................. 42 2.4.1 Urban form and transport CO2 emission from passenger travel ................. 42 2.4.2 Building energy use and life-cycle carbon emission .................................. 46 2.4.3 Summary ....................................................................................................
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