IMCORE SCENARIOS TRAINING WORKSHOP

Budapest Room, Hilton Conference Centre Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Tuesday 2 February 2010

ECN Scenario Approach Presentation MI & MDK 1. Theme and approach of scenario exercise

• Setting-up socio-economic scenarios of interest for CLIMAR/MDK – Masterplan coastal defence • Current cost benefit analysis of policy plans only look at the effects of these plans on the present socio-economic situation future • Socio-economic scenarios: describe how the socio-economic future might unfold • Socio-economic scenarios are used to assess climate change impacts and to evaluate the effects of adaptation measures and adaptive strategies 2. Context

Integrated Coastal Defence Plan

safety assessment flood risks

measures/alternatives SCBA

EIA

legal framework

risk management

MASTERPLAN

COMMUNICATION 2. Context CLIMAR - elaboration of an evaluation framework for adaptation scenarios/measures as a response to climate induced ecological, social and economical impacts and this for the Belgian North Sea environment. Steps within the CLIMAR-project: 1) Definition and modelling of climate change induced primary impacts at North Sea scale: sea level rise, increased storminess, possible increased rainfall, temperature, etc. 2) Deduction of climate change induced secondary impacts (fisheries, tourism, flooding) ˜ issues and drivers workshop 3) Identification of adaptation scenarios/measures 4) Development of an evaluation framework 2. Context 2. key issues Socio-economic scenarios • Based on existing scenarios (SRES - WLO)

• WLO and SRES scenarios based on the Scenario Axis Method = Based on two key uncertainties, leading to 4 storylines ˜ scenarios workshop Guide = exploratory approach

• Translation of WLO scenarios into scenarios that best describe the Belgian coastal context (quantitative assessment)

• Linkage between climate scenarios and socio-economic scenarios

• Once socio-economic and (combinations with) climate scenarios have been established, all kinds of plans with implications for the far future (adaptive strategies), can be assessed. Key question is: are the plans future-proof? 3. WLO scenarios

SE: reforming the process of EU decision making, enlargement of Europe, increased attention to the environmental and social aspects of development, international cooperation GE: EU only core tasks, rapid and successful economic development, the problem of climate change intensifies TM: economic regions, limited role of the state RC: environmentally aware citizens, local self-reliance and stronger communities 4. Scale of scenarios

Socio-economic evolutions:

• Economic growth (general/ catering industry – ) • Evaluation population • Trend ageing population • Trend family structure • Trend in the number of households • Trend employment • Trend income family • Trend fish price, trend fuel price 4. Scale of scenarios

• Time scale: – Socio-economic scenarios: • most reliable for 2020 – 2040 • Not much affected by climate change until mid-century – Climate change scenarios: • effects only visible from 2040; most relevant for 2100 • Climate until mid-century to a large extent determined by past GHG emissions – From second half of century: association between climate and socio-economic scenarios

• Conclusion time frame: 2040 & 2100 (BUT be conscious of reliability problems of socio- economic data) 4. Scale of scenarios

• Spatial scale: Coastal zone, Belgian Part of the North Sea • Main Data Sources: – MIRA-S (2009) – Federaal Planning Bureau (2008) – SVR (2009) (o.a. RESOC) – ADAPT (…) • Data scale (lumped): – (~econ) – – Coast (Arr. Oostende) (Arr. Brugge, Arr. ZW-Vlaanderen)

• Conclusion spatial scale: Arrondissement Oostende (, De Haan, , , , Oostende & ), but data not always available (use of higher scale) 5. challenges

• How to integrate Policy? – EU expansion – International cooperation (result of economical & political integration) – Economical integration (international trade) – Political integration (European vs national sovereignty)

• Is a separate indicator needed? Or is this reflected in indicators like economical growth, welfare, employment, etc.?

• Which indicators relevant for innovation or spatial development?

• Reliable data (geographic, time, etc.)

• How to extrapolate for 2100? • Trend Lines: status quo, averages, regressions (linear versus logarithmic) 6. Scenarios

• Socio-economic scenarios: • Average (Mean): related to 2040 • Maximum (Max): related to 2100 • Climate change scenarios:

2100 3. Scale of scenarios (geographic, thematic etc)

Coupling socio-economic & climate change scenarios Short-term (2040) scenarios: 2040 – BAU – M+/Mean 2040 – ADAPT – M+/Mean

Most likely situation

Long-term (2100) scenarios: 2100 – BAU – Worst/ Max 2100 – ADAPT+ – Worst/ Max 2100 – REACT – Worst/Max

Worst case situation 4. Evaluation framework (EXELL)

1. Identifying baseline (2006) 2. Implement adaptation measure 3. adaptation measures attributed to an adaptive strategy (BAU, ADAPT, REACT) 4. Overall effect reduction and net benefits of adaptive strategy 5. Also take into account: uncertainty 4. Evaluation framework (EXELL)

Scenario 1 = 2040: BAU- M - MEAN Scenario 2 = 2040: ADAPT - M - MEAN 5. Who will be involved in developing the scenario?

Stakeholders:

Tourism: coastal safety/marinas (MDK), new tourism development (vzw buitengoed), coastal tourism Flanders (westtour), understanding the public perception of coastal flood risk (University of Ghent), tourism indicators (ICIS = International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable development)

Fisheries: ship-owners, Institute for Agricultural and Fisheries Research (ILVO), Fishermen

Flooding: coastal safety/marinas (MDK), understanding the public perception of coastal flood risk (University of Ghent) Facilitators: 6. Timetable for workshops and scenarios development

• Meetings with Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical models, Flanders Hydraulics Research, Arcadis and Institute for Agricultural and Fisheries Research ILVO Fisheries on how to setup socio-economic scenarios for the Belgian coastal zone (12th June, 29th October) • Meetings per sector with key stakeholders to discuss the collected data • Meetings with all the sectors to discuss the results we have so far (21th January) 1. Theme and approach of scenario exercise

IMCORE Scenario Feb- Mar- Apr- May- June Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Activity 10 10 10 10 10- 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11

Conduct scenario workshops

Develop scenarios

Test scenario

Final publication & reporting