Ipswich and Waveney Housing Market Areas Strategic Housing Market Assessment Part 1

Working Together Ipswich and Waveney Housing Market Areas Strategic Housing Market Assessment Part 1 Peter Brett Associates May 2017 Office Address: 16 Brewhouse Yard, Clerkenwell, London EC1V 4LJ T: +44 (0)207 566 8600 E: [email protected] Project ref. 39251 Peter Brett Associates LLP disclaims any responsibility to the client and others in respect of any matters outside the scope of this report. This report has been prepared with reasonable skill, care and diligence within the terms of the contract with the client and taking account of the manpower, resources, investigations and testing devoted to it by agreement with the client. This report has been prepared for the client and Peter Brett Associates LLP accepts no responsibility of whatsoever nature to third parties to whom this report or any part thereof is made known. Any such party relies upon the report at their own risk. © Peter Brett Associates LLP 2017 THIS REPORT IS FORMATTED FOR DOUBLE-SIDED PRINTING. ii Ipswich and Waveney Housing Market Areas Strategic Housing Market Assessment Part 1 CONTENTS PART A: BACKGROUND AND MARKET GEOGRAPHY ................................................... 1 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................... 3 2 POLICY AND EXISTING EVIDENCE........................................................................... 4 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 4 Ipswich ......................................................................................................................... 4 Babergh ....................................................................................................................... 6 Mid Suffolk ................................................................................................................... 7 Suffolk Coastal ............................................................................................................. 7 Waveney ...................................................................................................................... 8 Summary ...................................................................................................................... 9 3 DEFINING HOUSING MARKET AREAS ....................................................................10 Introduction .................................................................................................................10 The NHPAU geography ...............................................................................................11 Migration .....................................................................................................................12 Commuting ..................................................................................................................18 House prices ...............................................................................................................24 Neighbouring local authorities .....................................................................................25 Conclusions.................................................................................................................27 PART B: IPSWICH HMA .....................................................................................................28 4 IPSWICH HMA PAST DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE .....................................................29 Introduction .................................................................................................................29 What has changed since 2001? ..................................................................................29 Summary .....................................................................................................................35 5 IPSWICH HMA DEMOGRAPHIC EVIDENCE .............................................................38 Method ........................................................................................................................38 Official releases ...........................................................................................................39 Alternative projections .................................................................................................44 Summary .....................................................................................................................48 6 IPSWICH HMA MARKET SIGNALS AND PAST PROVISION ...................................50 Introduction .................................................................................................................50 Past housing delivery ..................................................................................................51 Market signals .............................................................................................................55 Scale of the uplift .........................................................................................................61 May 2017 iii Ipswich and Waveney Housing Market Areas Strategic Housing Market Assessment Part 1 7 IPSWICH HMA JOBS AND HOMES...........................................................................65 Introduction .................................................................................................................65 Past trends ..................................................................................................................66 East of England Forecasting Model .............................................................................67 Experian forecast ........................................................................................................70 How many homes?......................................................................................................75 Alternative economic activity rates ..............................................................................76 Conclusions.................................................................................................................76 8 IPSWICH HMA: SETTING THE OAN .........................................................................78 Introduction .................................................................................................................78 Demographic starting point ..........................................................................................78 Market signals .............................................................................................................79 Jobs and homes ..........................................................................................................79 Objectively assessed housing need ............................................................................80 The OAN and affordable housing need .......................................................................81 PART C: WAVENEY HMA ...................................................................................................83 9 WAVENEY HMA PAST DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ..................................................85 Introduction .................................................................................................................85 What has changed since 2001? ..................................................................................85 Summary .....................................................................................................................88 10 WAVENEY HMA DEMOGRAPHIC EVIDENCE ..........................................................89 Method ........................................................................................................................89 Official releases ...........................................................................................................90 Alternative projections .................................................................................................94 Summary .....................................................................................................................98 11 WAVENEY HMA MARKET SIGNALS AND PAST PROVISION .................................99 Introduction .................................................................................................................99 Past housing delivery ................................................................................................ 100 Market signals ........................................................................................................... 102 Scale of the uplift ....................................................................................................... 107 12 WAVENEY HMA JOBS AND HOMES ...................................................................... 110 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 110 Past trends ................................................................................................................ 111 East of England Forecasting Model ........................................................................... 112 Experian forecast ...................................................................................................... 114 May 2017 iv Ipswich and Waveney Housing Market Areas Strategic Housing Market Assessment Part 1 How many homes?.................................................................................................... 119 Waveney off-shore scenario

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