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O I L & G a S O I L & G O i l & G a s Oil Marketing Companies August 26, 2019 Diesel Gasoline Propylene Fuel Oil Petcoke Jal Irani Vijayant Gupta +91 22 6620 3087 +91 22 4040 7402 Edelweiss Securities Limited [email protected] [email protected] Oil & Gas Executive Summary A dual bonanza from a step change in competitiveness – greater complexity at refineries – and a structural uptick in global refining margins (GRMs) is set to light up Indian oil marketing companies (OMCs). Marketing margins too are likely to remain well-oiled. These evolving dynamics would pump up their earnings to a 12% CAGR over FY19–21E. To be precise, we are raising FY21E earnings across OMCs by 15% (now 16% above consensus). Even so, OMCs trade at a compelling 26% discount to global peers and 40% discount to their historical multiples. In fact, at FY21E PEs of 5x, IOCL and HPCL imply negative terminal growth rates. We are retaining IOCL (TP: INR182) as our top sector pick given its steady earnings, superior profitability and high dividend yield (7.4%). We are raising SoTP-based TP for HPCL by 55% to INR348 as we bring its target multiples by division on a par with BPCL anticipating greater integration gains. Upgrade HPCL to ‘BUY’; retain ‘BUY’ on BPCL (TP: INR442). Fortifying refining competitiveness moat Indian refiners rank at the bottom of the operating and capex cost curves. Our analysis by product shows that the OMCs are, in fact, gunning for high-margin distillate (diesel) yields, which would fortify their competitiveness. The upgrade is opportune as it would fire up their diesel crack spreads by 46% as the new IMO regulation kicks in from January 2020. Global GRMs: Poised for structural gains… We forecast a prolonged period of high global GRMs. Capacity additions are modest at best given very long gestation of seven–ten years (for greenfield plants) that coincides with concerns of oil demand peaking by 2030. We argue, even in the near term, overcapacities shall get absorbed by CY20 while the slowdown in subsequent capacity additions would lift global utilisation rates in the vicinity of all-time highs. …but valuations at 26% below global imply negative growth At FY21E EV/EBITDA of 4–6x, OMCs are trading 40% below their long-term average and 26% below global peers’ despite high dividend yields of 5–7% and superior profitability. This implies negative terminal growth, and seems incongruous with OMCs’ growth trajectory. Pecking order: IOCL, HPCL and BPCL We believe IOCL offers the greatest upside potential among OMCs due to its highest middle- distillate yield, the cushion of an annuity pipeline business, strongest RoCE (13% FY21E) and dividend yield (7.4% FY20E). HPCL ranks second with highest growth in refining output, maximum benefits from bottom upgradation and refining integration. BPCL ranks last given lack of refining expansion, premium valuations and long-gestation upstream assets. Key risks: Modest near-term RoCEs, government stake sale overhang Near-term RoCEs shall be modest at 11–13% (FY21E) as OMCs are aggressively expanding capital-intensive and long-gestation refinery businesses. Greater integration, though, shall add to margins and enhance strategic positioning. The proposed sell-down in government stake (including government-owned entities) to 51% is an overhang for IOCL and BPCL. 1 Edelweiss Securities Limited Oil & Gas Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. 1 Investment Rationale: Cracking Complexity ........................................................................... 3 Focus charts: India’s rising refining complexity to enhance competitiveness ......................... 7 Key risks: Modest RoCEs and stake sale overhang ................................................................. 11 India refiners: Multiple growth levers.................................................................................... 13 India marketing: Stable margins ............................................................................................ 26 Valuations: Deep discount ..................................................................................................... 35 Global refining upcycle imminent .......................................................................................... 47 Companies Indian Oil Corporation ............................................................................................................ 72 Bharat Petroleum Corporation .............................................................................................. 96 Hindustan Petroleum Corporation ....................................................................................... 115 Edelweiss Securities Limited 2 Sector Update Investment Rationale: Cracking complexity The current confluence of circumstances is conducive for OMCs’ earnings growth and presents a unique investment proposition in our view. We dig deeper and unearth: 1) Global refining is poised for a structural uptick in margins as concerns around oil demand peaking by 2030 are discouraging capacity additions, which typically have long gestation of seven– ten years. This shall assure high GRMs for a long time. 2) Our analysis by product reveals that OMCs’ distillate yields are set to rise, which shall structurally improve their competitiveness and enhance GRMs. Indian refiners have among the lowest operating and capital costs globally. 3) OMCs are likely to clock a healthy 12% earnings CAGR (FY19–21E) as benchmark GRMs are estimated to rebound by USD2.9/bbl; consensus is pricing in a modest 6% CAGR. 4) And yet, OMCs are trading at a compelling 26% discount to global peers and 40% discount to their own historical multiples. In fact, at an FY21E PER of 5.1x and 4.7x, IOCL and HPCL, respectively, imply negative terminal growth rates. We are upgrading HPCL to ‘BUY’ (target price: INR348) while reiterating IOCL (target price: INR182) as our top pick. BPCL ranks last in our pecking order with a target price of INR442/share (refer to figure 1). Global refining outlook: Look at large gains beyond near-term pain Cyclical rebound likely after near-term pain Singapore complex GRM collapsed by 32% during 2018 to USD4.9/bbl, purportedly in anticipation of a sizeable 2mmbpd capacity addition during 2019 outpacing incremental demand of 1.2mmbpd. However, actual capacity addition in 2019 is likely to lag around 0.5mmbpd; moreover, more than 70% of the additions are slated for commissioning in November–December. Consequently, we estimate the surplus that would spill over into 2020 would be limited to 0.3mmbpd. We demonstrate that this addition would be absorbed over 2019–20, and the market would return to a deficit by 2021 (Refinery additions are back ended in 2019). Ahoy incumbents – Long gestation and advent of EVs dissuading new capacities We believe refining capacity additions would whittle down after 2020 as concerns pertaining to the advent of electric vehicles and long gestation of seven–ten years for new refineries take over. Consequently, higher global utilisation rates would benefit incumbent refiners with ready capacity, which would allow them to sell oil products at higher GRMs. Advantage Indian refiners Most competitive and poised for structural uptick Indian refiners boast the highest middle distillate yield (50%+) globally. With stricter IMO norms kicking in early next year, they are in a sweet spot to gain from even higher diesel cracks. Besides, management teams across OMCs are focusing on upgradation of bottoms, which would replace low-margin heavy distillates with profitable light- and middle-distillates (refer to chart 2). We also demonstrate that Indian refineries are among the most competitive globally (refer to table 2) with shortest payback periods owing to extremely competitive project cost (capital cost of USD400/tonne versus global average of USD540/tonne) as well as operating cost (USD2–2.5/bbl versus global average of USD4/bbl). (India refiners: Multiple growth levers) 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited Oil & Gas Sustained capacity deficit – India in a sweet spot According to BP Global Energy Outlook 2019, India will become the largest growth market displacing China, accounting for over 25% of global demand growth by 2040. Among major economies, we expect India to record highest demand growth with a five-year CAGR of 4.6% versus capacity growth of 2.9%. According to BP, India and China would together contribute half of incremental demand over the next five years. We estimate incremental demand in India over the next five years would be of 1.3mmbpd while capacity additions would lag at 0.7mmbpd, resulting in a product deficit of over 13% of domestic capacity (refer to chart 3). Double bonanza for GRM recovery – IMO regulation and domestic supply deficit The new International Maritime Organisation (IMO) norm stipulates maximum allowable sulphur content in shipping fuel of 0.5% by weight globally (versus 3.5% currently). This would affect 5mmbpd of marine fuel (3.2mmbpd fuel oil, 1.5mmbpd gasoil). Global oil economics expert Dr. Fereidun Fesharaki forecasts that the IMO norm shall result in incremental diesel demand of 1.4mmbpd during 2020, thereby widening diesel cracks by 46% to USD21/bbl during the year. He highlights refiners with a higher diesel yield will tend to benefit more due to this regulation. We infer Indian refiners – at the top by middle-distillate yields – would benefit from notably higher GRMs (refer to chart 1). As a culmination of improving
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