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The Seeds of Change: Attitudinal Stability and the Direction Of University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln Political Science Department -- Theses, Political Science, Department of Dissertations, and Student Scholarship Summer 6-16-2017 The eedS s of Change: Attitudinal Stability and the Direction of Attitudinal Change across the Lifespan Johnathan C. Peterson University of Nebraska - Lincoln Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/poliscitheses Part of the American Politics Commons Peterson, Johnathan C., "The eS eds of Change: Attitudinal Stability and the Direction of Attitudinal Change across the Lifespan" (2017). Political Science Department -- Theses, Dissertations, and Student Scholarship. 43. http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/poliscitheses/43 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Political Science, Department of at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. It has been accepted for inclusion in Political Science Department -- Theses, Dissertations, and Student Scholarship by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. THE SEEDS OF CHANGE: ATTITUDINAL STABILITY AND THE DIRECTION OF ATTITUDINAL CHANGE ACROSS THE LIFESPAN by Johnathan C. Peterson A DISSERTATION Presented to the Faculty of The Graduate College at the University of Nebraska In Partial Fulfillment of Requirements For the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Major: Political Science Under the Supervision of Professor John R. Hibbing Lincoln, Nebraska June, 2017 i THE SEEDS OF CHANGE: ATTITUDINAL STABILITY AND THE DIRECTION OF ATTITUDINAL CHANGE ACROSS THE LIFESPAN Johnathan C. Peterson, Ph.D. University of Nebraska, 2017 Advisor: John R. Hibbing Folk wisdom has long held that people become more conservative as they grow older. The empirics behind this claim, however, are not definitive. Utilizing panel data from the Michigan Youth-Parent Socialization Panel study and a longitudinal sample of Australian twins, my dissertation answers this question and many others as I examine patterns of attitudinal stability and the direction of attitudinal change when it does occur. These data allowed me to longitudinally track attitudinal change at the individual level. I first uncovered latent classes defined by patterns of attitudinal stability across the lifespan. The majority of people in these latent classes were defined by general patterns of stability. Of those who did change their attitudes across the lifespan, most moved in a conservative direction. However, there was still a significant group of people who were defined by a pattern of liberal change. After ascertaining these latent classes, I then began to uncover the reasons underlying these basic patterns of stability. I show attitudinal stability is a somewhat heritable trait which can be explained by psychological predispositions and sociological life events. ii Copyright 2017, Johnathan C. Peterson iii For Jessica. Thank you for always being there for me even when I am being a big old grouch. iv Acknowledgments This dissertation would not have been possible without the support and feedback of many people. I want to start off by thanking the current and former faculty members at Northern Illinois University who first helped make this dream a reality. People like Matt Streb, Scot Schraufnagel, and Rebecca Hannagan were instrumental in my development as a scholar, and it is safe to say I would not have ended up in Nebraska without their assistance. I never imagined I would end up spending five years of my life in Nebraska, and in my younger years the thought of living in a place like Nebraska would have likely filled me with dread. However, Nebraska is an easy place to love, and my time at the University of Nebraska has been everything I wanted. From my first day, John Hibbing and Kevin Smith have been great mentors and advisors who are more than generous with their time and patience. Working in their lab gave the experience and tools to be a successful scholar. I will miss being able to walk down to either of their offices to get an answer to any and all questions I had. Although, I doubt they will miss that as much. Beth Theiss-Morse is an invaluable fount of wisdom and support. Her constructive criticism always makes for a better finished product, and her comments and suggestions over the years have helped to improve my work greatly. Much of the analytical strategy employed throughout this dissertation came from a great piece of advice from Jacob Cheadle whose insight has helped make this dissertation what it is. I would also like to acknowledge the UNL Political Behavior Research Group. People like Dona-Gene Barton, Ingrid Haas, Sergio Wals, and others have listened to various iterations of chapters I present here as well as many other harebrained ideas I have had throughout the years. The comments and feedback I have received from the PBRG throughout my time here have been helpful in pushing my research forward. My fellow current and former graduate student colleagues have also been there throughout and have helped me tremendously. Folks like Jayme Neiman, Kristen Deppe, Carly Jacobs, and Mike Gruszczynski helped introduce me to the program when I first got here, and newer folks like Clarisse Warren and Ernest Dupree will be there in the future to do the same. v There were more than a few long and barely remembered nights with the likes of Frank Gonzalez, Stephen Schneider, and Balázs Fehér-Gavra. Like all good friendships formed in graduate school, we met and bonded in the computer lab, and they have provided valuable emotional support. I should also take a moment to apologize to anyone who tried to work in and around the computer lab while we were all in it. Things will be much quieter now. I promise. Finally, I want to thank all the haters. Look at me now, Mom!1 1 This is just a joke. My mom, dad, and sister have all been wonderful supporters. vi Table of Contents Chapter 1: The Seeds of Change ......................................................................................... 1 1.1 Don’t Lose Your Dinosaur........................................................................................ 1 1.2 Theories about Attitudinal Stability .......................................................................... 5 1.3 Integrating Individual Differences ............................................................................ 8 1.4 Chapter 2 ................................................................................................................. 14 1.5 Chapter 3 ................................................................................................................. 17 1.6 Chapters 4 and 5...................................................................................................... 19 1.7 What is to Come? .................................................................................................... 20 Chapter 2: Establishing Patterns of Attitudinal Change ................................................... 21 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 21 2.2 Background and Hypotheses ................................................................................... 23 2.3 Data and Methods ................................................................................................... 25 2.4 Ideological Self-Report in the Aggregate ............................................................... 27 2.5 Moving to the Individual Level .............................................................................. 33 2.6 Identifying Individual Differences in Patterns of Change ...................................... 40 2.7 Discussion and Conclusion ..................................................................................... 50 Chapter 3: Establishing and Examining the Heritability of Attitudinal Stability ............. 53 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 53 3.2 Theoretical Background .......................................................................................... 54 3.3 Hypotheses .............................................................................................................. 56 3.4 Data ......................................................................................................................... 56 3.5 Methods................................................................................................................... 57 3.6 Results ..................................................................................................................... 59 3.7 Discussion and Conclusion ..................................................................................... 63 Chapter 4: Exploring the Psychological Correlates of Attitudinal Instability .................. 66 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 66 4.2 Theory ..................................................................................................................... 68 4.3 Hypotheses .............................................................................................................. 73 4.4 Data ......................................................................................................................... 75 4.5 Methods..................................................................................................................
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