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Wildfire Threat Analysis (WTA) and Bushfire Threat Analysis (BTA)

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Wildfire Threat Analysis (WTA) and Bushfire Threat Analysis (BTA) Bushfire Threat Analysis of the Great Western Woodlands Fire Management Services September 2010 1 Acknowledgments This document was produced by the Department of Environment and Conservation with funding partly provided by Cliff’s Natural Resources Group. The region’s fire history was compiled by the project ‘Use of high resolution Landsat imagery to produce fire history maps for DEC Goldfields and South Coast Regions (NDMP0809-22)’ funded under the Australian Federal Government’s Natural Disaster Mitigation Programme. Thanks to Meg Porter, Li Shu and Paul Rampant for their assistance with that portion of the project. This document was authored by Glen Daniel and reviewed by Ian Herford Stakeholder Consultation Advice on the location and vulnerability of assets in the study area was contributed by a range of asset managers and interest groups, including: Jerry Lenane Shire of Menzies Peter Rush Shire of Coolgardie Peter Clarke Shire of Yilgarn Richard Brookes Shire of Dundas Harry Kendall Westnet Rail Scott Miller Water Corporation Steven Brooks Western Power Simon Williamson Cliff’s Natural Resources Alexander Watson The Wilderness Society Denise Crockford Main Roads Department Glen Murdoch Telstra Amanda Keesing Gondwana Link Elizabeth Sambo Central West Claimant Group Peter Price Great Western Woodlands Collaboration Recommended Reference The recommended reference for this document is: Department of Environment and Conservation (2010). Bushfire Threat Analysis of the Great Western Woodlands. Prepared by G. Daniel. Department of Environment and Conservation, Western Australia. A Note on Nomenclature In early 2010, the Western Australian Government replaced the term ‘wildfire’ with ‘bushfire’ as the preferred descriptor of unplanned fire events in the natural environment. Documents older than that date will, therefore, use the term wildfire, while the current document uses the term bushfire. The meaning of the two terms is identical, as are the meanings of Wildfire Threat Analysis (WTA) and Bushfire Threat Analysis (BTA). Disclaimer While every effort has been made to ensure that the information contained in this publication is correct at the time of printing, the information is only provided as a guide. DEC does not guarantee, and accepts no legal liability whatsoever arising from or connected to, the accuracy, reliability, currency or completeness of any material contained in this document. 2 Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................ 4 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 5 1.1. The Bushfire Threat Analysis Process ................................................................................. 5 1.2. Study Area Description ........................................................................................................ 6 1.2.1. Tenure and Land Use................................................................................................... 7 1.2.2. Climate......................................................................................................................... 9 1.2.3. Vegetation.................................................................................................................. 13 1.2.4. Fire History................................................................................................................. 19 1.2.5. Fuel Profile and Fire Behaviour .................................................................................. 22 2. Objectives for Fire Management................................................................................................. 30 3. Threat Analysis .......................................................................................................................... 31 3.1. Probability of Fire ............................................................................................................... 31 3.1.1. Risk of Ignition: likely points of fire origin .................................................................... 31 3.1.2. Headfire Behaviour: fire growth and spread................................................................ 34 3.1.3. Suppression Response: responding to the threat of fire ............................................. 36 3.1.4. Results of Fire Probability Analysis ............................................................................ 36 3.2. Consequences of fire: value and vulnerability of assets ..................................................... 38 3.2.1. The Built Environment ................................................................................................ 39 3.2.2. The Natural Environment............................................................................................ 47 3.2.3. Summary of Fire Consequences ................................................................................ 55 3.3. Conclusions of Threat Analysis .......................................................................................... 57 Appendix 1: Beard’s Vegetation Associations of the Great Western Woodlands Bushfire Threat Analysis Study Area .......................................................................................................................... 67 Appendix 2: NVIS Level 5 Associations of the Great Western Woodlands Bushfire Threat Analysis Study Area ........................................................................................................................................ 70 Appendix 3: Declared Rare and Priority Flora of the Great Western Woodlands Bushfire Threat Analysis study area ........................................................................................................................... 82 References........................................................................................................................................ 86 3 Executive Summary This report is an analysis of the likelihood and consequences of bushfires occurring in the ‘Great Western Woodlands’ (GWW). It is based on a process known as Bushfire Threat Analysis (BTA) that was developed by the Department of Environment and Conservation (DEC) in the early 1990s. BTA predicts the probability of a bushfire occurring in a given area by modelling the likelihood of an ignition, nature of fire behaviour and capacity of land managers to mount an effective suppression response. The likely consequences of a bushfire are then determined by considering the value and vulnerability to fire of assets that may be in the fire’s path. The magnitude and spatial distribution of the factors that define likelihood and consequence determine the threat posed by bushfire in the study area. The GWW is an internationally significant area of great biological richness. It is the largest remaining area of intact Mediterranean climate woodland left on Earth. It supports more than 3,000 flowering plant species as well as numerous species of mammals, reptiles, frogs and birds. Many of these plants and animals have specific fire regime requirements, making appropriate fire management critical to the protection of the region’s biodiversity. The GWW also has great cultural significance, with Aboriginal people retaining strong links with, and responsibility for, country. Appropriate use of fire in the landscape is an important facet of this responsibility. The study area for the GWW BTA has been slightly expanded from the recognised boundary of the GWW, in order to facilitate a more holistic approach to land management. The GWW BTA considers an area of approximately 22.2 million hectares, encompassing portions of 3 DEC regions and 12 Local Government Authorities (LGA). The majority of the area is Unallocated Crown Land, although there are also significant proportions of Pastoral Lease and Conservation Estate. DEC has responsibility for fire pre-suppression over most of the study area but for fire suppression over a lesser portion of it. The BTA study area is sparsely populated and contains relatively little infrastructure. Mining and pastoralism are the main land uses, with tourism also of importance to the region’s economy. The region has six major transport routes: Great Eastern Highway, Coolgardie-Esperance Highway, Goldfields Highway, Eyre Highway, the Perth to Kalgoorlie Railway and the Transcontinental Railway line. These connect Western Australia with the states to its east and allow travel within the region. The remainder of the region’s transport network comprises minor, mostly gravel, roads that carry little traffic. Water and gas pipelines, electricity distribution lines and telecommunications cables generally follow the major transport routes and are essential for the provision of utilities to the Goldfields. The protection of this infrastructure is an important objective of fire management in the region. The vegetation of the study area is dominated by five broad structural types: woodlands, shrublands, mallee, hummock grasslands and succulent steppe. Shrublands will burn readily, rapidly and intensely, under a range of weather conditions. They are also quick to recover following fires and may burn again in as little as five to six years. Woodlands are heterogeneous in structure and composition, meaning that fire behaviour in them is variable. In general, however, woodlands are less likely to burn than shrublands, exhibit less intense fire behaviour and are slower
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