A Climate-Smart Resource Stewardship Strategy for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks Appendix C: Vulnerability Assessment
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National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks A Climate-Smart Resource Stewardship Strategy for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks Appendix C: Vulnerability Assessment This report was prepared as part of Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks’ Resource Stewardship Strategy (RSS). The RSS is a long-range strategic planning tool that is informed by current, accurate science. For more information, go to the webpage: go.nps.gov/sekiRSS On the Cover: View of Redwood Mountain Grove and the valley below. Photo by Randy Morse, Golden State Images A Climate-Smart Resource Stewardship Strategy for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks Appendix C: Vulnerability Assessment Koren Nydick Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks 47050 Generals Highway Three Rivers, CA 93271 Ginger Bradshaw Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks 47050 Generals Highway Three Rivers, CA 93271 October 2017 U.S. Department of the Interior National Park Service Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks . Contributors Project Management Team - Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks Dr. Koren Nydick, Science Coordinator/Ecologist - Project Manager Dr. Christy Brigham - Chief of Resource Management and Science Ginger Bradshaw – Ecologist Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks Daniel Boiano – Aquatic Ecologist Tony Caprio – Fire Ecologist Athena Demetry - Restoration Ecologist Howard Eldredge – Archivist Annie Esperanza – Air Quality Specialist Erik Frenzel – Plant Ecologist Daniel Gammons – Wildlife Biologist Paul Hardwick – GIS and Data Coordinator David Humphrey – Cultural Resources Program Manager Erik Meyer – Physical Scientist Jessie Moore Russett - Archaeologist Larry Don Seale – Hydrologist Tom Warner – Forester Sierra Nevada Network Inventory and Monitoring Sylvia Haultain – Program Manager Dr. Andrea Heard – Physical Scientist Dr. Jonathan Nesmith – Ecologist U.S. Geological Survey – Sequoia Field Station Dr. Adrian Das - Ecologist Dr. Nathan Stephenson – Research Ecologist Table of Contents 1 – Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 1 2 - Stressor Exposure ...................................................................................................................................... 2 Air pollution .................................................................................................................................................... 2 Altered Fire Regimes ................................................................................................................................... 3 Climatic Change ........................................................................................................................................... 4 Non-native plants .......................................................................................................................................... 5 Non-native animals ....................................................................................................................................... 6 Insects and Disease ..................................................................................................................................... 7 Fragmentation and Land Use ..................................................................................................................... 8 Park Visitation / Human Use ....................................................................................................................... 9 3 - Resource Vulnerability ............................................................................................................................. 10 AIR RESOURCES ...................................................................................................................................... 11 WATER RESOURCES .............................................................................................................................. 14 AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS AND SPECIES ............................................................................................ 17 CAVE AND KARST SYSTEMS ................................................................................................................ 21 WET MEADOW AND FENS ..................................................................................................................... 23 FOOTHILLS TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS ....................................................................................... 26 GIANT SEQUOIAS ..................................................................................................................................... 30 FORESTS .................................................................................................................................................... 33 ALPINE TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEM .................................................................................................. 42 TERRESTRIAL WILDLIFE ........................................................................................................................ 45 LANDSCAPE INTEGRITY AND BIODIVERSITY .................................................................................. 51 CULTURAL RESOURCES ....................................................................................................................... 53 Referenced Literature .................................................................................................................................... 57 1 – Introduction Assessing vulnerability helps managers to understand why resources are at risk and how these resources may change in the future. Vulnerability refers to the extent to which a habitat, species, ecosystem process, or other resource is susceptible to harm (i.e., not attaining desired conditions) from climate change and other stressors. A vulnerability assessment evaluates what things are most vulnerable, why they are vulnerable, and what characteristics of the resource or its environment make it vulnerable. Vulnerability characteristics help us to identify adaptation activities that reduce vulnerability. A vulnerability assessment includes three components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Exposure describes how much change in climate or other stressors a resource is likely to experience. Sensitivity is to what degree and how a resource will be affected by a change in stressor exposure. Adaptive capacity is the ability to recover from or cope with the impacts of change with minimal disruption (Glick et al. 2011). Vulnerability Assessment Terminology Vulnerability: the extent to which a habitat, species, ecosystem process, or other resource is susceptible to harm (i.e., not attaining desired conditions) from climate change and other stressors. Exposure: how much change in climate or other stressors a resource is likely to experience. Sensitivity: to what degree and how a resource will be affected by a change in stressor exposure. Adaptive Capacity: the ability to recover from or cope with the impacts of change with minimal disruption. To start the vulnerability assessment, we reviewed results of the parks’ Natural Resource Assessment (NRCA), which provides detailed analyses and summaries of current resource conditions and stressors (NPS 2013). The Resource Stewardship Strategy (RSS) integrates NRCA results and then takes a step further to incorporate potential future stressor exposure, sensitivities, and adaptive capacity. The resulting vulnerability assessment informed the setting of RSS goals and the identification of management objectives and activities. This assessment was developed by park staff and partners using an expert opinion approach, including knowledge of the NRCA, a recent Sierra Nevada-wide vulnerability assessment (Kershner 2014), other scientific literature, unpublished data, and personal observations. C-1 2 - Stressor Exposure Climate change, altered fire regimes, invasive species, insects and disease, air pollution, and fragmentation and land use are major stressors that affect many of the parks’ priority resources and are likely to continue or intensify in the future. Air pollution Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks experience some of the worst air pollution of any national parks in the U.S. The parks are downwind of many air pollution sources, including agriculture, industry, major highways, and urban pollutants from as far away as the San Francisco Bay Area. Air pollutants carried into the park can harm natural and scenic resources such as forests, soils, streams, fish, frogs, and visibility. Ozone levels in the San Joaquin Valley and lower and mid-elevations in SEKI are a significant health concern for people, wildlife, and plants. High ozone concentrations mainly occur at low to mid elevations on the western side of the parks, below about 7,500 ft (2300 m). The human health metric, the annual 4th highest 8 hour concentration, for SEKI was 94.6 ppb from 2009- 2013 and is above standards. The National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for human health is 70 ppb, and the NPS benchmark is 60 ppb. From 2004 to 2013, SEKI’s trend in ozone concentration improved. The vegetation health metric W126 measures cumulative ozone exposure over the growing season. It was 54.0 ppm-hrs for SEKI from 2009-2013, compared to the NPS benchmark of less than 7 ppm-hrs. There was no trend in W126 from 2004-2013. The parks are at high risk for ozone injury to sensitive plants,