Demography Beyond the Population 24 – 26 March 2015 Cutlers’ Hall, Sheffield, UK

#BeyondDemog

bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 1 11/03/2015 16:15     Venues City Centre Sheffield s Hall Division Str Kelham Island Br The Wig & Pen Cutler’ eet

ewery D4/E4 F3/4

E1 E3    

bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 2 11/03/2015 16:15 Contents

 City of Sheffield Map 4 Welcome from the Symposium Organisers 6 Welcome from the BES 7 Symposium Programme Overview 8 Presenter Guidelines & Programme Format 9 Invited Speaker Biographies 11 Monday Workshops 12 Oral Presentations 15 Poster Presentations 18 Social Events 19 Delegate Information 21 The History of Cutlers’ Hall

bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 3 11/03/2015 16:15 Welcome to Demography Beyond the Population

Welcome to the British Ecological Society The intimate size of the symposium provides Annual Symposium, Demography Beyond unique opportunities for engagement. As such, the Population! The symposium aims to the programme strives to maximize the number highlight the role of demographic tools of voices heard and to offer multiple avenues as bridges across ecological, spatial, for participation. Overall, our goals are to: and temporal scales. For example, how Explore ways in which demography can demography help address questions intersects other areas of ecological in community ecology? To what extent and evolutionary research. can physiological ecology inform our understanding of population dynamics? Identify gaps in ecological and What are the key modeling challenges in evolutionary understanding that can demographic projections? These are timely be informed by an understanding of questions that coincide not only with recent population-level processes. advances in computational and quantitative Elucidate analytical tools and methods, but also with an ever-increasing metrics that facilitate the integration need for predictability in a rapidly changing of population-level processes world. It is only fitting that in order to bridge into other ecological, spatial, and across scales, systems, and disciplines, we temporal scales (and vice versa). should gather together for several days of Here’s to a productive and fun week focused discussion and exchange. in Sheffield!

Symposium Organisers

We would like to thank all of our sponsors for supporting this event.

bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 4 11/03/2015 16:15 Symposium Organisers

Alden Griffith Jessica Metcalf Environmental Studies Program, Department of Ecology and Wellesley College Evolutionary Biology and the Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton Alden Griffith is an Assistant Professor University in the Environmental Studies Program at Wellesley College. His research Jessica Metcalf is an Assistant Professor broadly examines the influence of at Princeton University, jointly appointed environmental factors and biological interactions on plant between the Office of Population Research in the Woodrow population dynamics. Particular interests involve questions Wilson School & the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary related to the establishment of invasive populations and Biology. Her works links infectious disease dynamics and the role of plant-plant facilitation. Central to his current their implications for policy, and includes investigations into research are quantitative approaches that span biological evolutionary processes shaping longevity and immunity. scales, linking population dynamics to environmental and physiological drivers.

Rob Salguero-Gómez Sean McMahon University of Queensland, Temperate Program Coordinator, Max Planck Institute for Smithsonian Environmental Demographic Research, Trinity Research Center College Dublin Sean McMahon is a Senior Scientist Rob Salguero-Gómez is a DECRA Fellow at the Smithsonian Environmental of the Australian Research Council, Research Center, and the Coordinator Research Fellow of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic of the Temperate Program in the Smithsonian’s Forest Global Research and Guest Visitor at Trinity College Dublin. His work Earth Observatory. Although his work focuses on modeling integrates large demographic databases (www.compadre-db. tree demography for projection models, he is interested in org), long-term demographic censuses of plants and animals, mechanisms driving demography, especially in the context and physiological and molecular laboratory techniques to of global change. This interest extends his research activities evaluate what factors render species likely to evolve or to from big plot census data to include tree physiology, escape from senescence across the tree of life. functional traits, remote sensing, and range modeling.

Cory Merow Dylan Childs US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of Animal and Plant University of Connecticut Sciences, University of Sheffield

Cory Merow is a statistician with the Dylan Childs is a population biologist Division of Migratory Bird Management with interests at both the pure and for the US Fish and Wildlife Service. applied ends of the spectrum. He follows His work focuses on developing an interdisciplinary approach, developing mechanistic forecasts of population, community and data-driven models to understand population dynamics and ecosystem responses to climate change, disturbance, land natural selection in laboratory and free-living populations. use change, and nonnative species. He has worked on He is particularly keen to understand how demographic, understanding community dynamics in the Mediterranean environmental and ecological processes interact to shape shrublands of South Africa, population dynamics of canopy selection on life histories. He is also interested in developing trees in temperate North American forests, and invasive theory and applications for modelling structured populations. species in New England.

bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 5 11/03/2015 16:15 Welcome from the BES

I find myself in the lucky also seek to understand how environmental position of both welcoming fluctuations and change can influence attendees to this BES population dynamics and the evolution of Symposium “Demography life histories. Talks in this symposium span Beyond the Population”, and multiple fields of ecological research, from taking part in it myself. physiological to evolutionary, conservation The British Ecological Society has a long to ecosystem, fundamental to applied. history of funding and publishing population At its heart is the concept of the structured biology: many of our past presidents population or life history, but the dedicated their entire careers to population symposium deliberately uses this concept modelling, life history evolution, and the as a springboard and looks outwards to study of population dynamics. We have consider the influences of, and influences seen several phase-shifts in our approach to on, demographic patterns and dynamics. population biology in the last few decades. The British Ecological Society is very Modern evolutionary ecologists now proud to host such an exceptional team of seek to understand how life histories and speakers and participants, and I myself am demographies are shaped by top-down, really looking forward to an interactive and bottom-up, and whole-system drivers. We collaborative event. Dave Hodgson BES Honorary Secretary

bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 6 11/03/2015 16:15 Programme Overview Brewery 18.30 – 21.30 at Kelham Island Beer & Burger Tour Tour Beer & Burger 17.00 – 19.00 Welcome Mixer Welcome at The Wig & Pen 1D 16.55 16:10 – Session 17.00 15:50 – Session 2D 15:20 Coffee/Tea Coffee/Tea & Farewells with 15:15 14.00 – 18.00 Breakout Breakout Coffee/Tea with Discussions and Posters 14:55 Breakout Breakout Coffee/Tea Discussions and Posters 13:55 14:00 Afternoon workshops at the University of Sheffield Session 3C Session 1C 13:40 Session 2C 12:25 12:30 12:10 Lunch and Posters Lunch and Posters 12.00 – 14.00 by Marco Visser by Marco Lunch with a talk Lunch and Posters 11:35 Session 1B 10:55 10:55 Session 3B Session 2B with 10:40 Breakout Breakout Coffee/Tea Discussions and Posters with with 10:00 10:00 Breakout Breakout Breakout Breakout Coffee/Tea Coffee/Tea Discussions and Posters Discussions and Posters 09:30 08.30 – 12.00 Session 1A 08:30 08:30 Session 3A Session 2A Morning workshops at the University of Sheffield 08:00

Coffee/Tea 08:00 Coffee/Tea 08:00 08:00 Coffee/Tea 08:00 Registration and

08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00

WEDNESDAY THURSDAY MONDAY TUESDAY

bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 7 11/03/2015 16:15 Presenter Guidelines and Programme Format

Discussion and dialogue with many voices is important to the goals of the symposium. Thus, a variety of presentation formats and semi-structured breaks aim to increase overall engagement and continuity.

Oral Presentations, Main Hall Breakout Discussion, Reception

All presentations will be held in plenary sessions; a mix of & Drawing Rooms 20 minute presentations by invited speakers and 5 minute During each hour-long break, delegates can participate in “lightning” presentations, with an optional associated poster, one of two breakout discussions that will focus on a range will offer both depth and breadth. Associated talks and of topics, themes, and questions. posters will be shaded in red throughout the programme. Please ensure presentations are loaded onto the laptop in the Main Hall well in advance of your session. There will be student helpers and BES staff to assist if required.

Poster Presentations, Old Banqueting Hall

We thank the Journal of Animal Ecology and Methods in Ecology and Evolution who have sponsored the poster sessions for this event Posters will be on display throughout the symposium. In lieu of typical large sessions, posters will be presented during long breaks and will be introduced in the previous oral session. Please ensure your poster is up by the beginning of the first coffee break. All posters must be removed by 16.30 on the final day of the meeting. Velcro will be provided. A prize of £100 will be awarded for to the best student poster, which has kindly been sponsored by the Journal of Ecology. The winner will be selected by an expert judging panel based on categories including: visual style, scientific content, originality of research, and effectiveness of communication. If you have entered your poster for a student award, there will be a pink sticker on your poster board.

bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 8 11/03/2015 16:15 Invited Speakers

Yvonne Buckley Johan Ehrlén Trinity College Dublin Stockholm University

Yvonne Buckley seeks to understand Johan Ehrlén is a professor in plant the fundamental drivers of animal ecology at Stockholm University, Sweden. and plant population processes in His research focuses mainly on plant- a rapidly changing world. She uses animal interactions and plant population these discoveries to provide support dynamics. One important question is for environmental decisions in the areas of biodiversity how environmental context influences natural selection by conservation, invasive species management and habitat pollinators, seed predators and herbivores on plant traits, such restoration. Her primary expertise is in comparative plant as flowering phenology. Another important research objective population dynamics, invasive plant management and is to link plant demography to environmental drivers and predicting responses of populations to global change. predict population dynamics in changing environments.

Hal Caswell Stephen P. Ellner University of Amsterdam Cornell University

Hal Caswell is Professor of Steve Ellner is Professor of Ecology Mathematical Demography and Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at Cornell at the University of Amsterdam, and University, previously on the faculty of formerly Senior Scientist at the Woods North Carolina State and University of Hole Oceanographic Institution. He Tennessee. His research interests center develops theory and models for structured populations, on interactions of ecology and evolution (life history evolution, and applies them to evolution, conservation, and climate eco-evolutionary dynamics) and on structured population change. His currently studies the individual stochasticity models, especially integral projection models. A book on inherent in structured life cycles, how it relates to IPMs with Rees and Childs should be published this year. His environmental variation and individual heterogeneity, and other interests center on traditional music and dance. development of the corresponding sensitivity analyses. He has an inordinate fondness for matrices.

Elizabeth Crone Jordan Golubov Tufts University Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana Elizabeth Crone studies plant and animal interactions at the intersection My primary interest is invasion ecology, of theoretical ecology and natural involved in national strategies to manage history: How do our observations inform and prevent the spread of invasive theory, and how can theory inform an species, and recently focusing on understanding of the natural world? Her current projects invasive species risk assessment and the role of population include: studying the causes and consequences of mast- dynamics and genetics in invasions. I am also interested in seeding in plants; the effect of mast-seeding on the plants’ the role played by environmental variables and the growing consumers; determining the effects of climate and land use importance of citizen science to tackle threats to biodiversity. change on butterfly populations; bumble bee demography in relation to food resources; and investigating the consequences Dave Hodgson of different forms of variance on plant population dynamics. University of Exeter

I am a quantitative ecologist, with a research focus in two fields. I study the maintenance of phenotypic variation in natural systems, such as viruses in insects, antiherbivore metabolites in plants, and niche specialists in bacterial microcosms. I also study the robustness of empirical models of population and community dynamics, with application to strategies of conservation management and the exploitation of natural resources. My goal is to lend ecology a predictive framework, and to help explain (and conserve) biodiversity

bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 9 11/03/2015 16:15 Invited Speakers

Eelke Jongejans Frank Schurr Radboud University Nijmegen University of Hohenheim

The main focus of my research is the Frank Schurr is interested in what impact of environmental drivers on causes variation in fundamental spatial population dynamics. I want demographic rates and how this to understand how ecological and variation shapes the long-term and evolutionary processes at the individual large-scale dynamics of species level integrate and scale-up to population dynamics. I am and communities. His research on these topics involves especially interested in ecological frameworks and models experiments and large-scale monitoring as well as that can augment the scientific underpinning of conservation, the statistical integration of various data types with harvest and control management. demographic models.

María C. Mandujano Shripad Tuljapurkar Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Stanford University México Shripad Tuljapurkar (Tulja) is a Professor My research focuses on populations of Biology and the Dean & Virginia using spatial-ecological and genetic Morrison Professor of Population approaches. Deserts are my favorite Studies at Stanford University. He ecosystem but I follow of complex life directs demographic programs at history anywhere. I am intrigued on the role that different Stanford’s Center for the Demography, Economics and Health types of reproduction has on life history traits and on the of Aging, and the Stanford Center for Population Research in spatial configuration of neighborhoods. I study the effects the Institute for Research in the Social Sciences. He works of clonality and mating system on population ecology and on evolutionary ecology and genetics, human demographic genotypic diversity, to assess individual fitness to preserve change and contemporary societies, prehistory and human threatened species or to control invasive species. evolution, and the biodemography of lifespan.

Mark Rees María Uriarte University of Sheffield Columbia University

Mark Rees is interested in a wide range Dr. María Uriarte is a Professor in the of ecological and evolutionary problems. Department for Ecology, Evolution and He uses a range of approaches from Environmental Biology at Columbia simple analytical models, through to University. Uriarte’s research examines evolutionarily stable strategy models the processes that drive secondary for the evolution of plant traits and more complex structured forest dynamics in tropical regions. She explores these models, in particular integral projection models. These more questions using a range of quantitative approaches and tools. complex models allow individuals within the population Uriarte received an M.S. in Environmental Studies from Yale to be characterised by multiple traits, density dependent University, and her Ph.D. in Ecology from Cornell University interactions between individuals, and stochasticity in the and was an NSF Postdoctoral Fellow at the Cary Institute for environment. In a more applied setting Mark has used models Ecosystem Studies. to explore the dynamics and control of invasive weeds. In addition to this he is also interested in statistical estimation problems related to the analysis and interpretation of ecological experiments.

bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 10 11/03/2015 16:15 Workshops: Monday 23 March, University of Sheffield

All workshops will take place in the Inox Conference and programming challenges may limit research scope, Suites, at the University of Sheffield Students’ Union. depth, and quality of analyses. By improving computational efficiency, biologists can feasibly solve more complex 08.30 – 12.30 tasks, ask more ambitious questions, and include more sophisticated analyses in their research. In this talk I review Advanced applications of matrix population models: various solutions to common computational efficiency age-x-stage (and related) demographic models. problems in ecological and evolutionary research. I pull Hal Caswell, University of Amsterdam together material that is currently scattered in many sources Stage-classified and age-classified demographic models and emphasizes techniques that are especially effective for are sometimes viewed as two different and incompatible typical ecological and environmental problems. The talk is things. They are not really so different, and it is not unusual aimed at those who have at least an introductory knowledge for demographic studies to ask questions about both. This of R, but aren’t familiar with code profiling, parallel workshop will introduce methods to answer two different computing or refactoring in lower-level languages. questions: (1) The imputation problem: although age doesn’t appear in them, stage-classified models imply values for 14:00 – 18:00 some important age-specific quantities (mortality, fertility, life Bayesian Survival Trajectory Analysis in R using BaSTA expectancy, net reproductive rate, etc.). How do we calculate Fernando Colchero, University of Southern Denmark these? (2) The multistate problem: the vital rates may depend Owen Jones, University of Southern Denmark jointly on age and stage (or some other combination of state variables). We will present a general method to incorporate BaSTA models, implemented using the statistical software both in a model, the four matrices required for such a model, R, allow users to infer age-specific mortality/survival and some methods for their analysis. trajectories from capture-mark-recapture/recovery data Integral projection models (IPMs) in population ecology even when some or all birth and death dates are unknown. and evolutionary biology The aim of the workshop is to introduce users to the basic Eelke Jongejans, Radboud University theory and rationale underlying the BaSTA package and, Rob Salguero-Gómez, University of Queensland and Max more importantly, to show them when and how to use it Planck Institute for Demographic Research and how to interpret the results. We will provide example Cory Merow, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service illustrative datasets walk users through a range of analyses. Jessica Metcalf, Princeton University You can find more information at http://basta.r-forge.r- Sean McMahon, Smithsonian Institute project.org and, for a quick overview, you can watch the Alden Griffith, Wellesley College BaSTA video at http://bit.ly/GzZ1gD. Demographic, equilibrium and evolutionary analysis In the last decades, population projection models (PPM) have of structured population models with continuous become an important link between theoretical pursuits and development: a general methodology and software applied analyses of experimental demographic data. With package advances in computing power and newly developed theories, André M. de Roos, University of Amsterdam these matrix models have evolved and new approaches, such as integral projection models (IPMs), have been developed. In physiologically structured population models (PSPMs) Participants of this workshop will learn how to organize individual life history is modeled by differential equations and analyze data sets provided by the organizers in order describing the dynamics of individual state variables (e.g. to construct and interpret IPMs with a variety of recent age, size, reserves) in continuous time, dependent on a set advancements. We will draw from the R package IPMpack of environment variables (e.g. food density). As a common (http://ipmpack.r-forge.r-project.org) to perform basic example, individual state dynamics may follow a dynamic (population growth rate, stable stage distribution, lifespan, energy budget model. A general methodology has been passage time…) and more advance model construction developed for the computation of demographic statistics and demographic projections and perturbations (discrete (e.g. population growth rate, sensitivities) of PSPMs from × continuous state models, age × size models, stochastic the specification of the individual life history functions (e.g. models with environmental covariates, etc). development, fecundity, mortality). The same methodology can also be used to calculate equilibrium states of non-linear, Lunchtime Talk density-dependent PSPMs as a function of model parameters and to carry out evolutionary analysis on life history Speeding up ecological and evolutionary computations parameters using the Adaptive Dynamics approach. This in R: essentials of high performance computing for workshop provides an introduction to the general methodology biologists and introduces a C-based software package that can be used Marco Visser, Radboud University from Matlab to carry out these computations. Computation has become a critical component of research in biology. A risk emerged that computational

bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 11 11/03/2015 16:15 Oral Presentations: Tuesday 24 March

All talks will take place in the Main Hall. Breakout sessions Session 1C will take place in the Reception & Drawing Rooms. 14:00 How to estimate colonization and survival Presentations in red indicate lightning talks that have probabilities when individual plants are not associated posters. These are available to view in the Old easily recognized Banqueting Hall throughout the meeting. Christian Damgaard, Aarhus University

14:10 Adaptive dynamics of plant traits through 08:00 Registration and Coffee/Tea population dynamic models Caroline Farrior, National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS) Session 1A 14:20 Using demographic models to predict changes 09:30 Demography beyond the population in the distribution and abundance of plants Alden Griffith, Wellesley College under environmental change Johan Ehrlén, Stockholm University 09:55 The demographic analysis of individual stochasticity and heterogeneity 14:45 Monitoring the dynamics of biodiversity Hal Caswell, University of Amsterdam with a network of volunteers and rangers María B. Garcia, Pyrenean Institute of Ecology 10:20 Instant death is better than slow death: How model assumptions about prolonged dormancy (CSIC) affect predictions on population dynamics 14:55 Reconstructing shifts in vital rates driven Kirsi Alahuhta, University of Oulu by directional environmental change using static data 10:30 How survival rates change between sexes and locations? The example of the Eurasian Edgar J. Gonzalez, McMaster University sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus) in two 15:05 Decomposing effects of plant-animal populations in the UK interactions on plant populations into Alix E. Aliaga, University of Southern Denmark meaningful components using IPM Zdenˇek Janovský, Charles University and Institute 10:40 Breakout Discussions and Posters with Coffee/tea of Botany, Czech Academy of Sciences Session 1B 15:15 Breakout Discussions and Posters with Coffee/tea

11:35 Variance is not just noise: Estimating and interpreting demographic variation among Session 1D individuals, sites and years 16:10 Predicting plant population behaviour using Elizabeth Crone, Tufts University neighbours and relatives. Shaun R. Coutts, University of Queensland and 12:00 Estimating the unobserved: Bayesian inference on age-specific mortality for males in species Trinity College Dublin with male natal dispersal 16:20 Plant movements and climate warming: Julia A. Barthold, University of Oxford and Intraspecific variation in growth responses to University of Southern Denmark nonlocal soils Pieter De Frenne, Ghent University 12:10 Decomposed variance and covariance of demographic rates of Soay sheep using mixed 16:30 Linking demography with drivers: Competition effects models and climate Mollie E. Brooks, University of Zurich Steven P. Ellner, Cornell University

12:20 Is climate suitability a useful predictor of 16:55 End population dynamics? Anna M. Csergo, Trinity College Dublin

12:30 Lunch and Posters

bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 12 11/03/2015 16:15 Oral Presentations: Wednesday 25 March

08:00 Coffee/Tea

Session 2A Session 2C 08:30 Demographic disturbances, transient dynamics 13:40 Bumblebee population dynamics: What is and the evolution of structured life histories the optimal worker size? “An interesting and Dave Hodgson, University of Exeter relatively straightforward study” Natalie Z. Kerr, Tufts University 08:55 A recolonising apex predator drives senescence and alters the trade-off between 13:50 Responses of the African striped mouse to reproduction and survival for prey individuals contemporary environmental changes Sarah R. Hoy, University of Aberdeen Chloe Nater, University of Zurich 09:05 Environmental heterogeneity of understorey 14:00 Genetic-matrix population model approach to palms in space and time: The role of persistence assess life history traits in clonal species and the implications for population dynamics María C. Mandujano, Merel Jansen, Wageningen University Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Jordan Golubov, 09:15 Thinking big to study the universality of Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana senescence Owen R. Jones, University of Southern Denmark 14:35 Ecological niches and geographic distributions: quantifying the Hutchinsonian niche from 09:25 Spatialdemography: a forthcoming R package range-wide variation in demographic rates for implementing spatially explicit, stage- Joern Pagel, University of Hohenheim structured, metacommunity models Alexander C. Keyel, University of Goettingen 14:45 Complex life cycles and vital-rate uncertainties in plants: Integrating Bayesian analyses and 09:35 Trait-structured population models as an integral projection models integrated platform for ecological and Maria Paniw, Universidad de Cadiz evolutionary prediction Eelke Jongejans, Radboud University 14:55 Breakout Discussions and Posters with Coffee/tea 10:00 Breakout Discussions and Posters with Coffee/tea Session 2D Session 2B 15:50 What drives spatial variation in population dynamics: Phylogeny, climate suitability, 10:55 Are there easy surrogates to demography environment or proximity? parameters in plants useful for community Yvonne Buckley, Trinity College Dublin ecology? Jitka Klimesova, Institute of Botany CAS 16:15 Population responses to environmental variability 11:05 Three decades in life of Cypripedium calceolus Callum Lawson, Netherlands Institute of Ecology genets Tiiu Kull, Estonian University of Life Sciences 16:25 Population as cohort: Bringing life table methods to bear on the analysis of wild 11:15 Demography at various resolutions: why the populations concept “population” should be kept loose Sarah Silverman, University of California, Davis Rob Salguero-Gómez, University of Queensland and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research 16:35 A dialogue between the forest and the trees: Cross-scale demographic models for global 11:40 Environmental drivers and (biological) control of change research invasive ragweed populations across Europe Sean M. McMahon, Smithsonian Institution Suzanne Lommen, University of Fribourg ForestGEO 11:50 Impacts of phenological disjunction on swallow 17:00 End productivity Blaise Martay, British Trust for Ornithology 12:00 Do community-mean trait values reflect optimal strategies? Insights from niche models of Puerto Rican trees Robert Muscarella, Columbia University 12:10 Lunch and Posters

bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 13 11/03/2015 16:15 Oral Presentations: Thursday 26 March

08:00 Coffee/Tea

Session 3A Session 3B 08:30 Linking demography to range dynamics with 10:55 Evolutionary demography and infectious population projection models: Prospectus and disease dynamics: A key frontier in examples understanding the limits of life-expectancy Cory Merow, US Fish and Wildlife Service and C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Princeton University University of Connecticut 11:20 Application of the multinomial Dirichlet 08:55 Contribution analysis for demography and distribution for estimating rare transition events beyond Raymond L. Tremblay, University of Puerto Rico Leonard V. Polishchuk, Lomonosov Moscow State 11:30 Differences in site and life history drive University demographic responses to climatic variation in 09:05 Interactive effects of herbivores, habitat and Scandinavian orchids fire on the population dynamics of a rare plant Matthew R. Tye, Uppsala University endemic to the Florida scrub 10:40 Identifying and quantifying the best climatic Pedro F. Quintana-Ascencio, University of Central predictors Florida Martijn van de Pol, Australian National University 09:15 The demographic consequences of genetic 10:50 The effect of climate change on variation for an invasive herb the demography of the rare orchid Satu Ramula, Åbo Akademi University Himantoglossum hircinum 09:25 Eco-evolutionary processes affect community Sascha van der Meer, KU Leuven responses to climate change 12:00 The demographic basis of species’ niches and Alexander Singer, Helmholtz Centre for range dynamics Environmental Research UFZ and German Centre Frank Schurr, University of Hohenheim for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) 12:25 Lunch and Posters 09:35 Evolutionary demography Mark Rees, University of Sheffield 10:00 Breakout Discussions and Posters with Coffee/tea Session 3C 13:55 Why does the phenotype not congeal? Shripad Tuljapurkar, Stanford University and Oxford University 14:20 Spread potential depends on herbivore defenses in the invasive plant Carduus nutans Brittany J. Teller, Utah State University 14:30 Lianas affect tropical tree population growth rates and community composition. Marco Visser, Radboud University 14:40 Über population models: Scaling structure across space, time and genetics Glenda M. Wardle, University of Sydney 14:50 A trait-mediated, neighborhood approach to quantify impacts of warming and drought on secondary tropical rainforest trees María Uriarte, Columbia University 15:15 Closing Remarks 15:20 Coffee/Tea & Farewells

bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 14 11/03/2015 16:15 Poster Presentations

We kindly thank the Journal of Ecology for sponsoring the 11 How to estimate colonization and survival Student Poster Prize, and the Journal of Animal Ecology probabilities when individual plants are not easily and Methods in Ecology and Evolution for sponsoring the recognized poster sessions. Christian Damgaard, Aarhus University Presentations in red indicate those associated 12 Adaptive dynamics of plant traits through population with lightning talks. dynamic models Caroline Farrior, National Institute for Mathematical and Instant death is better than slow death: How model 1 Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS) assumptions about prolonged dormancy affect predictions on population dynamics 13 Monitoring the dynamics of biodiversity with a Kirsi Alahuhta, University of Oulu network of volunteers and rangers Maria B. Garcia, Pyrenean Institute of Ecology (CSIC) 2 How survival rates change between sexes and locations? The example of the Eurasian 14 Reconstructing shifts in vital rates driven by sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus) in two populations in directional environmental change using static data the UK Edgar J. Gonzalez, McMaster University Alix E. Aliaga, University of Southern Denmark 15 Decomposing effects of plant-animal interactions on 3 Estimating the unobserved: Bayesian inference on plant populations into meaningful components using age-specific mortality for males in species with male IPM natal dispersal Zdeněk Janovský, Charles University and Institute of Julia A. Barthold, University of Oxford and University of Botany, Czech Academy of Sciences Southern Denmark 16 A recolonising apex predator drives senescence 4 Decomposed variance and covariance of and alters the trade-off between reproduction and demographic rates of Soay sheep using mixed survival for prey individuals effects models Sarah R. Hoy, University of Aberdeen Mollie E. Brooks, University of Zurich 17 Environmental heterogeneity of understorey palms 5 Is climate suitability a useful predictor of population in space and time: The role of persistence and the dynamics? implications for population dynamics Anna M. Csergo, Trinity College Dublin Merel Jansen, Wageningen University

6 Mutualism-disrupting allelopathic invader drives 18 Thinking big to study the universality of senescence carbon stress and vital rate decline in a forest Owen R. Jones, University of Southern Denmark perennial herbs Spatialdemography: a forthcoming R package for Nathan L. Brouwer, University of Pittsburgh 19 implementing spatially explicit, stage-structured, 7 An Integral Projection Model of American chestnut metacommunity models (Castanea dentata) population dynamics with natural Alexander C. Keyel, University of Goettingen regeneration and blight-induced mortality Are there easy surrogates to demography Harmony J. Dalgleish, College of William and Mary 20 parameters in plants useful for community ecology? 8 Demographic consequences of shifting phenology in Jitka Klimesova, Institute of Botany CAS a wild mammal population Three decades in life of Cypripedium calceolus Hannah Froy, University of Edinburgh 21 genets 9 A structured approach to modelling the impact Tiiu Kull, Estonian University of Life Sciences of environmental variation on the evolution of bet Environmental drivers and (biological) control of hedging strategies 22 invasive ragweed populations across Europe Bethan J. Hindle, University of Sheffield Suzanne Lommen, University of Fribourg Life history traits of palm tree species are correlated 10 Impacts of phenological disjunction on swallow to the impacts of fruit harvesting in population 23 productivity growth rates Blaise Martay, British Trust for Ornithology Mauricio Bonesso Sampaio, Universidade Estadual de Campinas

bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 15 11/03/2015 16:15 Poster Presentations

24 Do community-mean trait values reflect optimal strategies? Insights from niche models of Puerto Rican trees Robert Muscarella, Columbia University

25 Bumblebee population dynamics: What is the optimal worker size? “An interesting and relatively straightforward study” Natalie Z. Kerr, Tufts University

26 Responses of the African striped mouse to contemporary environmental changes Chloe Nater, University of Zurich

27 Ecological niches and geographic distributions: quantifying the Hutchinsonian niche from range-wide variation in demographic rates Joern Pagel, University of Hohenheim

28 Complex life cycles and vital-rate uncertainties in plants: Integrating Bayesian analyses and integral projection models Maria Paniw, Universidad de Cadiz

29 Contribution analysis for demography and beyond Leonard V. Polishchuk, M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University

30 Interactive effects of herbivores, habitat and fire on the population dynamics of a rare plant endemic to the Florida scrub Pedro F. Quintana-Ascencio, University of Central Florida

31 The demographic consequences of genetic variation for an invasive herb Satu Ramula, Åbo Akademi University 32 Eco-evolutionary processes affect community responses to climate change Alexander Singer, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ and German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv)

33 Application of the multinomial Dirichlet distribution for estimating rare transition events Raymond L. Tremblay, University of Puerto Rico

34 Differences in site and life history drive demographic responses to climatic variation in Scandinavian orchids Matthew R. Tye, Uppsala University

35 Identifying and quantifying the best climatic predictors Martijn van de Pol, Australian National University

36 The effect of climate change on the demography of the rare orchid Himantoglossum hircinum Sascha van der Meer, KU Leuven

bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 16 11/03/2015 16:15 Notes

bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 17 11/03/2015 16:15 Social Events

Welcome Mixer, Tuesday 23 March Burger & Beer Experience including a Brewery Tour

Please join us at The Wig & Pen from 17.00 for a Wednesday 24 March, 18.30 – 21.30 complimentary drink, nibbles, and an opportunity to £25 a ticket meet fellow delegates. This is a two minute walk from the We are excited to offer a fun evening of food, drink, and conference venue; we will head to the venue from Cutlers’ history at Kelham Island Brewery, in the heart of Sheffield’s Hall once the last session finishes. up and coming Industrial Quarter. Established in 1990, it If you plan to stay out for dinner, The Wig & Pen has was the first new brewery to open in Sheffield that century a great menu – or there are many other restaurants and has remained one of the city’s largest and leading and bars in the vicinity. producers of fine ales. The evening will begin at a new artisan burger bar, Urban Quarter, with a Kelham Beer on arrival. In groups throughout the evening, you will be provided with dinner, a tour of the Brewery, and a tutored tasting of 3 different beers with a history of the local area. Soft drinks will also be available. If you want to continue your evening you will be able to make your way to the brewery’s Loft Bar or the Fat Cat pub, next to the brewery. Tickets are £25 cash. If you would like to join us, sign up at the Registration Desk until 16.00 on Tuesday. Spaces for the event are limited; if the event is fully booked or you do not wish to attend, please feel free to enjoy your evening at the Fat Cat (which serves vegetarian and vegan options) and join fellow delegates later on. © Getty Images © Getty Images

bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 18 11/03/2015 16:15 Delegate Information

Social Media Smoking Policy

You are encouraged to join the Twitter discussion using Smoking is not permitted inside Cutlers’ Hall. #BeyondDemog and follow @BritishEcolSoc to ensure you are part of the conversation. First Aid Speakers reserve the right to ask delegates not to Should you require first aid assistance during the disseminate their research online, please respect this Symposium, please alert the Registration Desk immediately. request if made. Venue Security Photography In the event of an emergency, Cutlers’ Hall staff will guide Photographs taken at our event may be used for promotional you to safety. There will be no fire alarm tests during the purposes; if you have any queries regarding this, please see Symposium; please follow evacuation instructions if the us at the Registration Desk. alarm sounds.

Internet Insurance and Liability Complimentary Wi-Fi is provided throughout Cutlers’ Hall. A Symposium organisers will not accept liability for personal password will be provided on registration. injury or loss/damage to property/belongings of participants or accompanying persons, before, during or following the Food and Refreshments Symposium activities or their stay in Sheffield. It is therefore recommended that participants arrange their own personal Your registration includes coffee/tea and lunch on Tuesday, health, accident and travel insurance. Wednesday, and Thursday. All catering will be available in the Old Banqueting Hall during refreshment breaks. A complimentary drink and nibbles will also be available at the Travelling Within Sheffield Welcome Mixer on Tuesday evening. Please refer to the map at the front of your programme. Badges Sheffield is a very easy city to navigate with good public transport links. Both the Stagecoach Supertram and local For security and regulation purposes, please ensure you wear bus networks connect all key areas of the city. All trams your registration badge at all times throughout the venue. are accessible, with regular stopping points throughout the city centre. The nearest Tram stop to Cutlers’ Hall is Mobile Phones Cathedral Station. The Meadowhall/Middlewood (yellow) route will take you As a courtesy to speakers and other delegates, please ensure to all the major sporting venues and Meadowhall, one of that all portable devices be changed to silent mode before Europe’s largest shopping malls. entering any session. The Halfway/Malin Bridge (blue) route will take you to Cloakroom some of Sheffield’s most interesting suburbs, one of Sheffield’s oldest parks - Norfolk Heritage Park- and the There will be a complimentary cloakroom service available historic Rivelin Valley. throughout the Symposium. The cloakroom is located on the Ground Floor. There are clear route indicators on supertram stops and on each tram, but if you have a question, or need assistance, Lost Property just ask the on-board tram staff who will be happy to help. You can purchase a ticket for tram travel from the on- Please hand in any lost property to the Registration Desk. board staff who will let you know the most cost effective ticket to buy.

bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 19 11/03/2015 16:15 Delegate Information

Places to Eat in Sheffield Things to do in Sheffield

Division Street is one of the city’s hubs with a variety of Sheffield Theatres independent bars, pubs, cafes, and restaurants. Listed below Comprising of The Lyceum, Crucible, and Crucible Studio, are some recommendations. Sheffield Theatres is the largest regional theatre complex Silversmiths, City Centre outside of London, offering a wide variety of touring and in- house productions, from famous West End shows to cutting Silversmiths is a multi-award-winning family run restaurant edge theatre. set in a historic cutlery works. They provide a unique Yorkshire dining experience, embracing fresh innovative Sheffield Winter Garden sourcing and presentation. Their ethos is to select the best Sheffield’s impressive multi award-winning Winter Garden is Yorkshire produce, support regional farmers and bring one of the largest temperate glasshouses to be built in the customers a true field to plate experience. 100% of their UK during the last hundred years and has created a stunning suppliers are Yorkshire based and 60% are Sheffield based green world with more than 2,500 plants from around the and their seasonal menu sees dishes changing daily. www.silversmiths-restaurant.com world. With direct access from Millennium Galleries and Millennium Square, the Winter Garden is the perfect oasis in The Old House, Division Street, City Centre the heart of England’s fourth largest city. Located in the Devonshire Quarter, the quirky Old House Sheffield Botanical Gardens is said to be have been the original town house of the These extensive gardens have over 5,500 species of plants Duke of Devonshire (circa 1800’s). This laid-back bar is an and has been Grade II Listed by English Heritage as a garden eclectic home-from-home with a reputation for good music of special architectural and historical interest. The Grade 11 as well as delicious homemade meals. The small team of listed Glass Pavilions, one of the earliest curvilinear (curved passionate chefs are devoted to creating sublime yet honest roof) glasshouses ever built, now contain a temperate plant and traditional food. From world beers to boutique cocktails, collection from around the world. staff take pride in their product knowledge and even host a monthly Gin School. Sheffield Music Scene www.theoldhousesheffield.com As the birthplace of the Arctic Monkeys, Pulp, Def Leppard and the Human League, it’s no coincidence that Sheffield enjoys a thriving music scene. Music venues such as Sheffield City Hall, Motorpoint Arena, O2 Academy, Plug,The Harley and the legendary Leadmill welcome tours from a broad genre of bands and artists, from local upcoming to international stars. Last Laugh Comedy Club

Sheffield Botanical Gardens The longest running comedy club in Yorkshire, Last Laugh started off in the back room of The Lescar pub over twenty years ago, where they still run a club every Thursday night. They’ve also expanded into a big weekend club in the City Centre and host one off comedy nights all over Sheffield, not to mention a month long celebration of comedy with the Last Laugh Comedy festival every October. © Sheffield County Council

bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 20 11/03/2015 16:15 The History of Cutlers’ Hall

The Cutlers’ Hall The Company Today

The Company has had three Halls on the same site. In 1638, The purpose of the Company of Cutlers today is the shortly after it came into being, the Company bought land promotion and support of local manufacturing industries and for their Hall on Church Street, Sheffield, opposite the parish businesses. The Freemen represent a large base from which church, which is now the Cathedral. The second Hall was built to establish links and networks in Sheffield industries. Today, in 1725. The present Hall, a Grade 2* Listed building, was built qualified individuals who apply to the Company are granted in 1832 and extended in the late 19th Century. Grand from their ‘Freedom’. The name Sheffield is protected by law and the exterior, its interior is magnificent and rivals the best of the the Company makes efforts to maintain its reputation. The Livery Halls in London. Over the years, it has served as a focus Company also continues to prevent its illegal use on goods for the Company’s activities and as a venue for social events - manufactured elsewhere. both for the Cutlers’ Company and for Hallamshire. As the face of industry in Hallamshire has changed, so has the Company. Much of its influence is exerted through The Company of Cutlers in Hallamshire the Master who has a significant platform both locally and nationally. The Company runs several events during the year When the Company of Cutlers in Hallamshire was and these include: ‘The Cutlers’ Feast’, a dinner for some 400 incorporated by an Act of Parliament in 1624, the local cutlery people in the Cutlers’ Hall; Education Awards; Police Awards industry was already over three centuries old. The Act of and the Forfeit Feast which is normally attended by the Lord Incorporation gave the Company jurisdiction over Mayor of London. In addition it is becoming increasingly ‘all persons using to make Knives, Blades, Scissers, Sheeres, involved in education seeking to re-establish the essential Sickles, Cutlery wares and all other wares and manufacture link between educational establishments and business in the made or wrought of yron and steele, dwelling or inhabiting Region. Finally, the Company also administers three charities, within the said Lordship and Liberty of Hallamshire, or within The Cutlers’ Hall Preservation Trust, the Cutlers’ Company six miles compasse of the same...’ Charitable Trust and the Sir John Osborn Trust. Donations to good causes in the Region are made on an annual basis - for The Company purposes which vary from the relief of poverty or distress; through education in the Sheffield region to the preservation For almost four hundred years, the Company has maintained of the Cutlers’ Hall and its collections. the standing of Sheffield’s metal-related industries, both at home and abroad. Hallamshire was the southern-most shire of Anglo-Saxon Northumbria and its boundary separated Northumbria from Mercia. The manufacture of cutlery (implement with a cutting edge) has been carried out in this area for centuries, aided by abundant fast-flowing water to power the water wheels and sandstone to make the grinding wheels. Cutlers’ Hall The Company had the responsibility for binding apprentices, admitting Freemen, registering marks and it devised regulations to ensure the quality of workmanship. The first Master Cutler in 1624 was the cutler, Robert Sorsby, who came from a well-established local family. Until the middle of the 19th century, the Masters Cutler were involved in the manufacture of one or more of the goods defined in the early Act and later bye-laws, with the majority being cutlers - the makers of knives. The Company consists of 33 Members who are Freemen. They are the Master, 2 Wardens, 6 Searchers and 24 Assistants. All other Freemen of the Company, currently around 400, are known as the Commonalty The edge-tool trade had originally been excluded from the Company, but its growth and the development of bulk steel- making in the mid-19th century led the company to amend its rules to admit these trades. In 1863, Thomas Jessop was the first steel manufacturer to be a Master Cutler. For most of the twentieth century, Masters have generally been from the

bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 21 11/03/2015 16:15 20% DISCOUNT A Less Green British Ecological Society Journals and Pleasant Land Journal of Ecology Journal of Applied Ecology Our Threatened Wildlife

By publishing broad-reaching and Journal of Applied Ecology original papers on all aspects of publishes novel, high-impact ‘I hope that you will read, consider, plant ecology, Journal of Ecology papers on the interface between mull and mould all [the book’s] ideas in brings the most important papers ecological science and the in this area to an international management of biological your minds and then feel empowered audience, a role it has developed resources. and motivated to help move wildlife since its foundation in 1913. conservation in the UK into a new era… before it’s too late’ www.journalofecology.org www.journalofappliedecology.org @JEcology @JAppliedEcology Chris Packham, Naturalist, Wildlife Photographer and TV Presenter, from the Foreword Functional Ecology Methods in Ecology and Evolution 978-1-107-67323-6 | £16.99 | Exclusive BES discount price £13.59 (expires 31/5/15)

Functional Ecology publishes Methods in Ecology and Evolution high-impact papers that enable promotes the development of new Order online at www.cambridge.org/greenandpleasant a mechanistic understanding of methods in ecology and evolution, enter the code GREENANDPLEASANT for your discount ecological pattern and process and facilitates their dissemination from the organismic to the and uptake by the research ecosystem scale. community. BESS 148x210 Feb2015 v2.indd 1 20% DISCOUNT20/02/2015 11:12 www.functionalecology.org www.methodsinecologyandevolution.org @FunEcology @MethodsEcolEvol Our Uncommon Heritage Journal of Animal Ecology Ecology and Evolution Biodiversity Change, Ecosystem Services, and Human Wellbeing Ecology and Evolution is a peer Journal of Animal Ecology reviewed, open access journal By Charles Perrings, Arizona State University publishes the best original providing rapid publication of research on all aspects of animal high-quality research in all areas of ecology, ranging from the ‘Charles Perrings has been deeply involved for ecology, evolution and conservation molecular to the ecosystem level. science. decades in the complex issues of international biological diversity science, assessments and www.journalofanimalecology.org www.ecolevol.org policy. He draws upon this experience to craft @AnimalEcology @WileyOpenAccess a thoughtful and wise roadmap for a more positive future for the natural resources that underpin human well-being.’ Find out what the BES can do for you: Harold Mooney, Stanford University www.britishecologicalsociety.org

Follow us @BritishEcolSoc Paperback | 9781107618985 | Retail price £30.00 | Exclusive BES discount price £24.00 (expires 31/5/15)

Order online at www.cambridge.org/uncommonheritage and enter the code PERRINGS15 to receive your discount.

BESS Our Uncommon Heritage 148x210 Feb2015 v1.indd 1 02/03/2015 18:57 bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 22 11/03/2015 16:15 20% DISCOUNT A Less Green and Pleasant Land Our Threatened Wildlife

‘I hope that you will read, consider, mull and mould all [the book’s] ideas in your minds and then feel empowered and motivated to help move wildlife conservation in the UK into a new era… before it’s too late’ Chris Packham, Naturalist, Wildlife Photographer and TV Presenter, from the Foreword

978-1-107-67323-6 | £16.99 | Exclusive BES discount price £13.59 (expires 31/5/15)

Order online at www.cambridge.org/greenandpleasant enter the code GREENANDPLEASANT for your discount

BESS 148x210 Feb2015 v2.indd 1 20% DISCOUNT20/02/2015 11:12 Our Uncommon Heritage Biodiversity Change, Ecosystem Services, and Human Wellbeing

By Charles Perrings, Arizona State University

‘Charles Perrings has been deeply involved for decades in the complex issues of international biological diversity science, assessments and policy. He draws upon this experience to craft a thoughtful and wise roadmap for a more positive future for the natural resources that underpin human well-being.’ Harold Mooney, Stanford University

Paperback | 9781107618985 | Retail price £30.00 | Exclusive BES discount price £24.00 (expires 31/5/15)

Order online at www.cambridge.org/uncommonheritage and enter the code PERRINGS15 to receive your discount.

BESS Our Uncommon Heritage 148x210 Feb2015 v1.indd 1 02/03/2015 18:57 bes demographicsd brochure march 2015.indd 23 11/03/2015 16:15 Annual Meeting Fàilte 13 – 16 December 2015 • EICC, Edinburgh, UK www.BritishEcologicalSociety.org/AM2015

We are thrilled to announce that our plenary Edinburgh is the political capital of Scotland and speakers will be Luigi Boitani (University of Rome), one of the most popular British centres for culture Josephine Pemberton (University of Edinburgh) and and architecture – both New and Old Towns are Bill Sutherland (University of Cambridge). listed as UNESCO World Heritage Sites. It is also a hub for international travel. Abstract submission and registration will open in April – keep an eye on our website for the most up Expect the same high calibre science, workshops, to date information and follow the conversation networking and social programmes – but with a with #BES2015. distinctive Scottish flavour.

BESbes demographicsd scotland A4 advert brochure v3.indd march 1 2015.indd 24 11/03/2015 16:1514:33