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Ashokan Watershed Hydrologic Study 33333333 Hydrologic Analysis Technical Support Data Notebook Task Order HSFE02-10-J-0001 for Ashokan Reservoir Watershed Hydrologic Study, New York FEMA Contract No. HSFEHQ-09-D-0369 August 2012 Federal Emergency Management Agency Region II 26 Federal Plaza, Suite 1337 New York, NY 10278 Ashokan Reservoir Watershed Hydrologic Analysis August 2012 TECHNICAL SUPPORT DATA NOTEBOOK (TSDN) for Ashokan Reservoir Watershed (Part of Esopus Creek Watershed) HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS TSDN Prepared by RAMPP 8401 Arlington Boulevard Fairfax, VA 22031 DATE SUBMITTED: August 2012 ii Ashokan Reservoir Watershed Hydrologic Analysis August 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS A. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 1 A.1 Study Area ............................................................................................................................. 10 A.2 Purpose and Type of Study ..................................................................................................... 12 A.3 Type of flooding .................................................................................................................... 12 A.4 Flooding history ..................................................................................................................... 12 A.5 Effective Flood Studies .......................................................................................................... 13 A.6 Other Studies ......................................................................................................................... 15 B. STUDY AREA CHARACTERISTICS ...................................................................................... 17 B.1 Topography ............................................................................................................................ 17 B.2 Watershed and Stream Network ............................................................................................. 18 B.3 Land Use and Soils Characteristics ......................................................................................... 19 B.4 Precipitation Characteristics ................................................................................................... 20 B.5 Ashokan Reservoir ................................................................................................................. 21 B.6 Shandaken Tunnel – Inter Basin Flow .................................................................................... 22 B.7 USGS Stream Gages .............................................................................................................. 23 C. APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................... 25 C.1 Model Selection Criteria......................................................................................................... 25 C.2 Rainfall-Runoff modeling....................................................................................................... 26 D. APPLICATION AND RESULTS .............................................................................................. 39 D.1 Model Calibration and Verification ........................................................................................ 39 D.2 FREQUENCY STORM DATA .............................................................................................. 58 E. DISCUSSION OF RESULTS ........................................................................................................ 60 E.1 Esopus Creek ......................................................................................................................... 60 F. RECOMMENDED DISCHARGES ............................................................................................... 64 G. REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................... 69 iii Ashokan Reservoir Watershed Hydrologic Analysis August 2012 INDEX OF FIGURES Figure 1: Ashokan Reservoir Watershed Study Flooding Sources and Watershed ..................................... 5 Figure 2: Scoped Flooding Sources – Part1 .............................................................................................. 6 Figure 3: Scoped Flooding Sources – Part2 .............................................................................................. 7 Figure 4: Scoped Flooding Sources – Part3 .............................................................................................. 8 Figure 5: Scoped Flooding Sources – Part4 .............................................................................................. 9 Figure 6: New York City Water Supply System (Source: NYCDEP, 2011) ........................................... 11 Figure 7: Topography of Upper Esopus Watershed ................................................................................ 18 Figure 8: Land Use Distribution in Upper Esopus Watershed ................................................................. 20 Figure 9: Soil Hydrologic Groupings in Upper Esopus Watershed ......................................................... 21 Figure 10: Ashokan Reservoir and its Outlet Structures ......................................................................... 22 Figure 11: USGS Stream Gages in Ashokan Reservoir Watershed ......................................................... 24 Figure 12: HEC-HMS Model Sub-Basins .............................................................................................. 28 Figure 13: Curve Number Initial Estimates for AMC-2 Conditions ........................................................ 31 Figure 14: Lag Time Initial Estimates .................................................................................................... 33 Figure 15: Storage-Discharge-Elevation for West Basin ......................................................................... 36 Figure 16: Storage-Discharge-Elevation for East Basin .......................................................................... 36 Figure 17: Comparison of Cumulative Precipitation Reported by NYCDEP Rain Gauge at Slide Mountain and the Corresponding MPE Grid Cell ................................................................................................... 38 Figure 18. Modeled and Observed Flow Hydrographs at USGS 013621955 (Birch Creek) for Hurricane Irene (August 2011) Storm Event (based on post-Irene rating curve). ..................................................... 44 Figure 19. Modeled and Observed Flow Hydrographs at USGS 013621955 (Birch Creek) for Hurricane Irene (August 2011) Storm Event (based on pre-Irene rating curve). ...................................................... 45 Figure 20. Modeled and Observed Flow Hydrographs at USGS 01362200 (Esopus Creek at Allaben) for Hurricane Irene (August 2011) Storm Event. ......................................................................................... 45 Figure 21. Modeled and Observed Flow Hydrographs at USGS 01362370 (Stony Clove Creek) for Hurricane Irene (August 2011) Storm Event. ......................................................................................... 46 Figure 22. Modeled and Observed Flow Hydrographs at USGS 0136230002 (Woodland Creek) for Hurricane Irene (August 2011) Storm Event. ......................................................................................... 46 Figure 23. Modeled and Observed Flow Hydrographs at USGS 01362370 (Little Beaver Kill) for Hurricane Irene (August 2011) Storm Event. ......................................................................................... 47 Figure 24. Modeled and Observed Flow Hydrographs at USGS 01362500 (Esopus Creek at Coldbrook) for Hurricane Irene (August 2011) Storm Event. .................................................................................... 47 iv Ashokan Reservoir Watershed Hydrologic Analysis August 2012 Figure 25. Modeled and Observed Flow Hydrographs at USGS 01363382 (Bushkill) for Hurricane Irene (August 2011) Storm Event. .................................................................................................................. 48 Figure 26. Modeled and Observed Flow Hydrographs at USGS 013621955 (Birch Creek) for October 2005 Storm Event. ................................................................................................................................. 49 Figure 27. Modeled and Observed Flow Hydrographs at USGS 01362200 (Esopus Creek at Allaben) for October 2005 Storm Event..................................................................................................................... 49 Figure 28. Modeled and Observed Flow Hydrographs at USGS 01362370 (Stony Clove Creek) for October 2005 Storm Event..................................................................................................................... 50 Figure 29. Modeled and Observed Flow Hydrographs at USGS 0136230002 (Woodland Creek) for October 2005 Storm Event..................................................................................................................... 50 Figure 30. Modeled and Observed Flow Hydrographs at USGS 01362370 (Little Beaver Kill) for October 2005 Storm Event. ................................................................................................................................. 51 Figure 31. Modeled and Observed Flow Hydrographs at USGS 01362500 (Esopus Creek at Coldbrook) for October 2005
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