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Brazil Low-Carbon Country Case Study 2010 Brazil Low-carbon Country Case Study Lead Author Christophe de Gouvello | The World Bank Sustainable Development Department of the Latin America and Caribbean Region The World Bank © 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org Email: [email protected] All rights reserved This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the Theviews World of the Bank Executive does not Directors guarantee of The the World accuracy Bank of orthe the data governments included in theythis workrepresent. and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permissions to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; www.copyright.com. fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: [email protected] other queries on rightsg .and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC, 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; email: The Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) is a global knowledge and technical assistance program administered by the World Bank that assists low- and middle-income countries to increase know how and institutional capacity to achieve environmentally sustainable energy solutions for poverty reduction and economic growth. For more information on the Low Carbon Growth Country Studies Program or about ESMAP’s climate change work, please visit us at www.esmap.org or write to us at: Energy Sector Management Assistance Program The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 USA email: [email protected] web: www.esmap.org 2010 Brazil Low-carbon Country Case Study The World Bank Group Lead Author Christophe de Gouvello Sustainable Development Department of the Latin America and Caribbean Region Themes coordinators: Britaldo S. Soares Filho, CSR-UFMG e Andre Nassar, ICONE (for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forests) Roberto Schaeffer, COPPE-UFRJ (for Energy) Fuad Jorge Alves, LOGIT (for Transport) Joao Wagner Silva Alves, CETESB (for Waste Management) Contributions: CENEA, CETESB, COPPE-UFRJ, CPTEC/INPE, EMBRAPA, UFMG, ICONE INICIATIVA VERDE, INT, LOGIT, PLANTAR, UNICAMP, USP Contents Foreword ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 Acknowledgments ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 Acronyms and Abbreviations -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 Units of Measure ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 Currency Exchange ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 Executive Summary --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 Introduction ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 37 1.1 Managing Risk: Target Levels ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 38 1.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 38 1.3 A National Commitment To Combat Climate Change ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 39 1.4 StudyThe Brazilian Objective Context: and Approach Key Role ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- of Forests and Other Sectors 40 1.4.1 Method Overview ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 40 1.4.2 A Consultative and Iterative Process -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 42 1.5 Structure of This Report ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 43 Land Use, Land-use Change, and Forestry: Reference Scenario ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 45 2.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 46 2.1.1 Deforestation ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 46 2.1.2Eff ects Agricultural of Land Use Production and Land-use ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Change on Emissions 47 2.1.3 Livestock Activities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 47 2.1.4 Forestry-based Carbon Uptake --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 47 2.2 Modeling Land Use and Land-use Change--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 48 5 2.2.1 Economic and Geospatial Models ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 48 2.2.2 Projected Land Use: Agriculture and Livestock ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 49 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 50 2.3 Estimating Emissions Balance for Land Use and Land-use Change ------------------------------------------------------------------- 50 2.3.12.2.3 DeforestationExpected Land-use ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Change: Deforestation 52 2.3.2 Livestock Activities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 52 2.3.3 Agricultural Production ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 54 2.3.4 Carbon Uptake ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 55 2.4 Reference-scenario Emissions Results ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 56 Land Use, Land-use Change, and Forestry: Toward a Low-carbon Scenario ------------------------------------------------------------- 59 3.1 Mitigation Options for Agricultural Production -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 60 3.2 Mitigation Options for Livestock Activities -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 62 3.3 Increased Livestock Productivity to Reduce Deforestation Emissions ---------------------------------------------------------------- 64 3.4 GHG Removal via Carbon Uptake Options --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 65 3.4.1 Production Forests ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 65 3.4.2 Native Forest Recovery ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 66 3.5 Striking a Balance: A New Dynamic for Land Use and Land-use Change ------------------------------------------------------------- 71 3.5.1 A New Dynamic for a Low-carbon Scenario ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 71 3.5.2 A New Carbon Balance Close to Equilibrium ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 79 3.6 Additional Forest Protection Measures ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 80 3.7 Integrated Strategy for a Low-carbon Scenario -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 83 Energy Sector: Reference Scenario and Mitigation Potential -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 85 4.1 Methodology Overview --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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