The Potential for Low-Carbon Renewable Methane As a Transport Fuel in France, Italy, and Spain
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WORKING PAPER 2018-28 The potential for low-carbon renewable methane as a transport fuel in France, Italy, and Spain Authors: Chelsea Baldino, Nikita Pavlenko, and Stephanie Searle (ICCT), and Adam Christensen (Three Seas) Date: November 2018 Keywords: biogas, renewable energy, anaerobic digestion, availability, decarbonization, sustainability Introduction had only limited success as all major renewable methane, factoring in automakers deploy electric vehicles in the availability of low-carbon feed- Renewable methane offers the poten- greater numbers. However, for trucks stocks necessary for production. tial to displace natural gas for use and urban buses especially, the role Furthermore, the technical poten- in existing vehicle fleets, reducing of natural gas is under active debate. tial for renewable methane produc- greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as Increasingly, cities are acknowledging tion may vary considerably from the well as emissions of air pollutants they can now shift to electric buses and volumes that are achievable at realistic like NO . While the bulk of existing X derive substantial GHG reductions and levels of policy support. Constraints renewable methane comes from pro- fuel savings in many cases (Dallmann, such as economies of scale, feedstock cesses that capture the gas from the Du, and Minjares, 2017; Miller, Minjares, cost, and distribution all play impor- anaerobic decomposition of organic Dallmann, and Jin, 2017). The potential tant roles in determining the cost of matter, a share of future renewable for widely available, low-cost, low-GHG production for renewable methane. methane production may come from renewable methane could potentially This study assesses the potential of the gasification of biomass or renew- shift these debates. able electricity-powered methane renewable methane in the transport synthesis, also known as power-to- Recently, the European Union finalized sector by 2030 in three major European gas. The GHG impact of renewable its recast Renewable Energy Directive countries: France, Italy, and Spain. methane and the scale of its poten- for 2021-2030 (RED II), which includes These countries have demonstrated a tial adoption depend strongly on the ambitious targets for renewable energy particular interest in promoting renew- performance of feedstocks used to in transport (General Secretariat of the able methane as part of their post- produce gas and their availability. Council of the European Union, 2018). 2020 transport decarbonization strat- EU member states must implement egies. Italy currently provides special The potential for low-carbon renew- the directive with specific measures to support to renewable methane from able methane is a pressing issue. promote the use of low-carbon trans- non-food feedstocks (Ministero dello Policymakers at city, regional, and port fuels. Renewable methane from Sviluppo Economico, 2018). In France, national levels are considering which qualifying feedstocks is one option for a Parisian public transport operator technology options to support for cars, helping to meet the RED II targets. is investing in natural gas buses that trucks, and buses to help meet air-qual- can run on renewable methane (NGV ity and climate-change mitigation goals. It is important that member states Global News, 2018). In Spain, SEAT and For light-duty vehicles, natural gas has assess the realistic potential for Volkswagen-Audi Spain have signed Acknowledgements: This work was generously supported by the European Climate Foundation. Thanks to Jacopo Giuntoli, Nic Lutsey and Peter Mock (ICCT); Jori Sihvonen (Transport & Environment); and Jon Stenning and Stijn Van Hummelen (Cambridge Econometrics) for helpful reviews and input. © INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION, 2018 WWW.THEICCT.ORG THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-CARBON RENEWABLE METHANE AS A TRANSPORT FUEL IN FRANCE, ITALY, AND SPAIN an agreement with the Madrid Gas viable selling price of renewable methane, and some of the net addi- Network to promote compressed methane across a variety of feed- tional energy production would natural gas (CNG) vehicles and CNG stocks and production modes. We most likely come from unsustain- infrastructure (CNG Europe, 2018b). then use the minimum viable selling able sources, such as fossil fuels and These three countries are also among price for each production mode in wood (Searle, Pavlenko, El Takriti, the top five markets in Europe for new conjunction with feedstock availabil- and Bitnere, 2017). We do not assess vehicle sales and vehicle fleets. ity and cost to estimate the cost- landfill gas potential because methane viable volume of renewable methane capture is already required on landfills The data and analysis in this paper potential and the resulting GHG in Europe, and it is thus already likely provide a detailed methodology reductions attainable at several levels to be used in heat and power produc- for determining the choice of feed- of policy support from 2020–2030. tion. Furthermore, because the Landfill stocks and calculating cost curves for We also calculate first-order esti- Directive requires reductions in land- renewable methane potential based mates of the potential for renewable filled waste over time, it is unlikely that on two previous studies (Searle and methane production in 2050, which additional landfill gas will be sustain- Christensen, 2018; Baldino, Pavlenko, we provide in the Appendix. ably available in the future. We also do and Searle, 2018). This paper addresses not consider feedstock to be available several questions: if it has material uses, for example use FEEDSTOCK SUSTAINABILITY of crop residues in livestock bedding 1. How much renewable methane AND PATHWAY SELECTION and as a soil amendment. We take esti- from these sources is technically The climate benefits of renewable mates of the excess sustainable avail- possible in the EU? methane strongly depend on the ability of crop and logging residues 2. How much renewable methane upstream impacts of the feedstock and industrial and municipal waste production is cost-viable? used to produce the gas. Renewable that are not already used for energy 3. How does the potential for renew- methane from silage maize, for production, material uses, or soil pro- able methane compare with the example, relies on crop land that tection from Searle and Malins (2016). energy demand in these three competes with other uses and gener- Some livestock manure and sewage countries? ates indirect land use change (ILUC) sludge is used as a soil amendment, emissions, estimated to be 21 grams but we consider this amount to be 4. What are the greenhouse gas of carbon dioxide-equivalent per available for renewable methane pro- savings associated with the tech- megajoule (gCO2e/MJ) by Valin et al. duction because the digestate result- nical and cost potentials of renew- (2015)—similar to that of some food- ing from anaerobic digestion is nutri- able methane in these countries? based biofuels. Generally, renewable ent-rich and can be used as fertilizer. methane and biofuels produced from Methodology true wastes and residues without In this study, we do not consider existing uses deliver the best climate co-digestion of feedstocks, but that We analyze the additional technical outcomes. In this analysis, we there- could be an important consideration potential for renewable methane from fore focus on waste and residue because co-digesting feedstocks with a variety of feedstocks, including live- feedstocks that can be converted varying carbon-to-nitrogen ratios stock manure, sewage sludge, waste to methane. This includes livestock and dry matter influences the renew- and residue biomass, and renewable manure, sewage sludge, municipal and able methane potential from these power in 2030. First, we use national- industrial solid biogenic waste, crop feedstocks (Einarsson and Persson, level activity data for agriculture and and logging residues, and renewable 2017). We assume that livestock wastewater treatment to develop an power-to-gas. manure and sewage sludge would assessment of the theoretical techni- be processed through anaerobic cal potential for renewable methane This analysis estimates only the addi- digestion, crop and logging residues production based on feedstock avail- tional renewable methane poten- and industrial and municipal waste ability that could be supplied to any tial relative to existing production. through gasification and methana- sector, transport or otherwise. Next, Diverting renewable methane from tion, and renewable power through we incorporate bottom-up economic existing uses such as heat and power electrolysis and methanation. assessment for the cost of produc- to transport would most likely neces- tion and delivery to the transport sitate additional energy production Anaerobic digestion of manure fuel market to evaluate the minimum to replace the diverted renewable or sludge produces raw biogas, 2 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION WORKING PAPER 2018-28 THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-CARBON RENEWABLE METHANE AS A TRANSPORT FUEL IN FRANCE, ITALY, AND SPAIN a gaseous mix of approximately Table 1: Low-carbon renewable methane feedstocks, technology pathways, and lifecycle 50%–60% methane, with much of the GHG intensities for gaseous fuels used in the transportation sector. remaining volume comprising CO , 2 Feedstock Technology pathway GHG intensity Reference volatile organic compounds, and trace Livestock manure -264 gCO e/MJ CARB, average impurities. Improving the quality of Anaerobic digestion 2 Sewage