RESEARCH
FOCUS ON: TOTTENHAM HALE 2019 FOCUS ON: TOTTENHAM HALE 2019 FOCUS ON: TOTTENHAM HALE
A central theme of London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s strategy to FIGURE 1 FIGURE 3 Forecasts, Greater London 2019-2023 ease the capital’s housing shortage is to “intensify” the use of Average house prices Resales market land close to existing or planned tube and rail connections by building thousands of new homes. % +19Change in average P 2 P 290 The strategy, also encouraged by the previous underway, and a £1 billion redevelopment of house prices, administration, has underpinned a wave Tottenham Hotspur’s football stadium opened Tottenham Hale, of large-scale regeneration projects both in Spring 2019. 2016-2018 + % established and nearing fruition in locations 15.9 The new housing and amenity will cater including King’s Cross, Victoria and Battersea. RENTS to the growing population of the borough Tottenham Hale, already a key transport hub, of Haringey, which is set to expand 7% is one of the first locations in the next phase FIGURE 4 in the coming ten years, according to of this strategy. Plans for redevelopment Average time spent on the market, official forecasts. have been accelerated by Tottenham rental properties + Hale’s selection as a key interchange on the This report is intended to assist decision 9.2% proposed north to south Crossrail 2 route. making by prospective house purchasers HOUSE PRICES and developers looking to invest in land. It As of the first quarter of 2019, almost 40 large residential developments of at least examines local market dynamics, including 50 private units have approval within 3 affordability compared with nearby and kilometres of Tottenham Hale station similarly well-connected locations, the depth compromising more than 10,000 new of the rental market, Tottenham Hale’s position Source: Knight Frank Research homes, to be delivered over the next decade. amid London’s changing infrastructure Note: Price forecasts are for existing homes. Property values in the new-build market may perform differently. Significant commercial regeneration is also landscape and its expanding housing supply.
Source: Land Registry PRICES & AFFORDABILITY: House prices in Tottenham Hale have climbed vicinity (fig 3) and compared with other to Brixton in the south (fig 2). The area also of stations have higher average sale prices than two bedroom apartment spends just 3.6 weeks 19% since 2016, outperforming the wider stations along the Victoria Line. scores favourably when compared with Tottenham Hale. on the market before being let, compared to Average weeks on Average weeks on Average weeks on Average weeks on Average weeks on Average weeks on London market, according to analysis of The average price of a home in Tottenham other locations a comparable distance from Prime monthly asking rents for a two bedroom 5.8 weeks in Greater London. The time on the 5.7 3.6 5.7 3.6 5.7 3.6 market, 2 bed flat market, 2 bed flat for market, 2 bed flat market, 2 bed flat for market, 2 bed flat market, 2 bed flat for Land Registry data. Despite this growth, the Hale is £405,162, the least expensive of central London. A breakdown of property flat in Tottenham Hale average £1,650, according market drops to three weeks within 750 meters for rent in London rent in Tottenham Hale for rent in London rent in Tottenham Hale for rent in London rent in Tottenham Hale area performs well in terms of affordability all stations along the line that runs from transactions within 750 meters of the 147 to a study of the top 25% of listings by value. of Tottenham Hale station, highlighting the compared to locations both in the immediate Walthamstow Central, through Oxford Circus, zone 3 stations during Q3 2018 indicates 80% Analysis of the rental market shows the average importance of access to transport links to tenants. Source: Rightmove
FIGURE 2 House prices and rents on the Victoria Line Year to December 2018
a thamstow ackhorse EN LE e en Finsbur ighbur King s ross Euston arren ord Green ictoria Pim ico au ha tockwe ri ton entra Road isters Park Is ington t Pancras treet ircus Park
Average sale price 0, 1 1 , 2 0 ,1 2 2,999 , 9 1 ,902 90 ,92 , 0, 1, 9 , 2 1, 19,0 1 1, 2 , 9 9 1, 1,0 ,9 1,1 9 12,
Prime monthly asking rent, 2 bed flat 1, 00 1, 9 1, 0 1, 9 1,90 2, 92 2, 1 2, 1 ,900 , 00 10, , , , 1, 1,90
one one 2 one 1 one 2
2 RESEARCH KNIGHT FRANK KNIGHT FRANK RESEARCH 3
a thamstow ackhorse ottenham e en Finsbur ighbur King s ross Euston arren ord Green ictoria Pim ico au ha tockwe ri ton entra Road a e isters Park Is ington t Pancras treet ircus Park
Average sale price 0, 1 1 , 2 1 , 2 2,999 , 9 1 ,902 90 ,92 , 0, 1, 9 , 2 1, 19,0 1 1, 2 , 9 9 1, 1,0 ,9 1,1 9 12, Upper quartile monthly asking 1, 00 1, 9 1, 0 1, 9 1,90 2, 92 2, 1 2, 1 ,900 , 00 10, , , , 1, 1,90 rent, 2 bed flat FOCUS ON: TOTTENHAM HALE 2019
CONNECTIVITY FIGURE 7 London transport upgrades planned and in progress ill Hill ! New !! S !! Angel Road Broadway ! Southgate A Much of Tottenham Hale already carries Barnet FIGURE 5 HS2 Proposed 2026 – subject to approval Haringey !! Alexandra !! Turnpike Transport for London’s highest rating for Crossrail 1 late 2019 Harrow Palace !! Lane Tottenham H ale Public transport accessibility map* Crossrail 2 2033 !! TOTTENHAM HALERedbridge transport accessibility (fig 5). The station is !! Chadwell Crossrail 2 Proposals !! connected to central London via the Victoria Hendon !! Seven Heath Northern Line Extension 2020 Sisters Waltham Forest !! ! !! Line and Stansted Express trains run to the Bakerloo Line Existing Finsbury !! ! Park I !! s Hackney Bakerloo Line Proposed 2030 – subject to approval li airportTOTTENHAM every 15 minutes. Stansted airport HALE Cricklewood !! n g !! Thameslink £7bn upgrades complete 2019 t Camden ! o !! is just 37 minutes away via train, and both Brent !! ! n ! Dalston !! ! unction !! Angel Stratford Barking Dagenham LiverpoolJOURNEY Street and Oxford TIMESCircus can be Hillingdon Euston Old Oak St. Pancras Common !! !! Tower reached in about fifteen minutes. !! Hamlets Newham ! Tottenham Farringdon ! Court Road ! Ealing !! ! ! C West ! !! ! The area’s connectivity is to be augmented !! !! ! !! !! !! A BOND CANARY STANSTED LIVERPOOL Drayton !! !! Acton Paddington !! London !! o further if the proposed north to south !! !! ! West ainline !! Bridge STREET HARF STREET !! !! ! Ealing Victoria !! Crossrail 2 route is approved. The Mayor of Langley !! !!!! Elephant Castle !! ! !! King s Road ! ! ! ! BRUCE GROVE ! Kennington !! ! ! ! Abbey London has submitted a strategic business Chelsea ! !! !! ! Charlton Wood !! !! ! !! !! Battersea ! case to government for the project, which Nine ! N ew Cross Gate Heathrow Hounslow !! ! Heathrow Elms !! !! Greenwich is anticipated to be operational by 2033. ! !! Terminals 2 3 !! Terminal 5 ! Clapham !! !! Lewisham Bexley Heathrow unction Lambeth !! Developers in April began paying the new !! !! Southwark Terminal 4 Wandsworth !! Lewisham Community Infrastructure Levy 2 in order to Tulse !! Catford Richmond Hill !! !! assist in funding the project. Upon Thames Tooting !! !! Broadway TOTTENHAM HALE Teddington !! !! !! !! Crossrail 1, the east to west connection now !! W imbledon !! Sunbury !! !! ! !!! !! ! !! known as the Elizabeth Line, is scheduled to ! !! !! ! ! !! BLACKHORSE !! ! ! !! !! erton !! !! !! Kingston ! open in 2020. Property values within a ten ROAD Hampton !! !! !! ! !! !! !! !! Bromley !! !! Court Surbiton !! otspur !! minute walk of stations along the line have !! ! Park !! Elmers !! !! 2 7 1 2 ! !! A outperformed their local markets by 4% since Shepperton !! ! End !! s ! Worcester !! e !! Hayes Park !! Bromley ! Orpington INS INS INS INS m! !! ! the project was given Royal Assent in 2008. a! !! h T ! !! n !! ! o ! !! !! p !! !! U !!! ! SEVEN SISTERS n o t s g
in
K SOUTH TOTTENHAM 2 INS 7 INS 1 INS 2 INS HOUSING SUPPLY Total average outperformance% of Delivery of housing in Haringey has picked up from a low Tottenham Hale sits in the Lee Valley property prices within a ten minute walk of just 133 additional dwellings in 2014-15. Opportunity Area which itself occupies a of Elizabeth Line (Crossrail 1) stations strategic position in the London-Stansted- since the project was approved in 2008. Source: TFL. * Each area is graded between 0 and 6b, where a score of 0 is very poor access to public transport, and 6b is excellent access Cambridge-Peterborough growth corridor, 4 to public transport. according to the draft London Plan. Tens FIGURE 8 of thousands of homes will be built in the 1,600 Housing Supply, Haringey Lee Valley over the coming decade and FIGURE 6 beyond as upgrades to infrastructure 1,400 Travel times underpin regeneration. Minimum housing requirement 2016-2026 1,200 1,148 Annual housing supply in Haringey has risen steadily from a low of 133 in 2014-15 to 1,200 1,000 in 2017-18. The borough needs a minimum TOTTENHAM HALE 1 15 1 7 7 5 of 1,148 additional homes every year to meet JOURNEY TIMES INS INS INS INS INS INS 800 basic housing requirements, according to official estimates of housing need. 600
Net additional dwellings The area around Tottenham Hale station is
400 to become a focal point for new residential KINGS CROSS O FORD CIRCUS LIVERPOOL STREET CANARY HARF STANSTED HEATHRO development. Almost 40 large projects 200 have been approved within 3 kilometres of Tottenham Hale station, compromising more 0 than 10,000 private units, to be delivered over 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 the next decade.
Source: TFL Source: MHCLG
4 RESEARCH KNIGHT FRANK KNIGHT FRANK RESEARCH 5
2 2 7 1 INS INS INS INS TOTTENHAM HALE JOURNEY TIMES BOND STREET LIVERPOOL STREET CANARY HARF STANDSTED AIRPORT
2 2 7 1 INS INS INS INS TOTTENHAM HALE JOURNEY TIMES BOND STREET LIVERPOOL STREET CANARY HARF STANDSTED AIRPORT
T R
T R
CH N ES FOCUS ON: TOTTENHAM HALE 2019
FIGURE 9 DEMAND DRIVERS Development pipeline Schemes of 50+ private units within 3km of Tottenham Hale Station Demand for housing in Tottenham Hale is likely to be underpinned by more than just its relative affordability and high levels of connectivity. Easy access to high-quality education will also be a factor. Haringey has 12 primary schools and six secondary schools rated outstanding by Ofsted, the schools watchdog.
London’s world-class universities, including University College London, London School of 7% Economics and King’s College are all between 20 and 35 minutes away by tube. TEN YEAR POPULATION GROWTH FORECAST, In addition, the population of Haringey is set to grow by 7% over the coming decade, in line with HARINGEY population projections for Greater London. As a result of the factors outlined in this report, many WHITE TOTTENHAM HART LANE HOTSPUR young people are migrating to the borough, according to official figures. Some 8,771 people STADIUM aged 20-29 moved to the borough during 2017, making them the largest cohort. More than FIGURE 11 6,000 people aged 30-39 moved to the borough during the same year. NORTHUMBERLAND Who moved to Haringey? 2017 PARK FIGURE 10 100+ Office for Standards in Education ratings in Haringey 90-99
80-89
70-79
60-69
50-59 PRIMARY
HIGHAM HILL 12 1 Age 40-49
30-39 TOTTENHAM HALE 20-29
TOTTENHAM 10-19 WEST TOTTENHAM HALE BLACKHORSE OUTST N IN GREEN ROAD 5 OO 0 - 9 SECONDARY
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 1,0000
WALTHAMSTOW SEVEN SISTERS CENTRAL Source: Ofsted Source: ONS SEVEN SISTERS ALTHAMSTO ST JAMES RESERVOIRS STREET WALTHAMSTOW HARINGEY SOUTH QUEENS ROAD FIGURE 12 TOTTENHAM SOUTH Travel times from Tottenham Hale to universities with 2019 UK ranking TOTTENHAM
HARINGEY GREEN LANES CRAVEN WALK UNIVERSITY COLLEGE SOAS CASS BUSINESS STAMFORD HILL LONDON UNIVERSITY SCHOOL 2 INS R 22 INS TH 21 INS R
MANOR HOUSE STAMFORD HILL
LONDON SCHOOL CITY KING S NUMBER OF PRIVATE UNITS INCLUDES BUILD TO RENT OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE 50 – 100 101 – 200 201 – 400 Over 400 29 INS 5TH 29 INS R 5 INS 7TH
Source: Molior Source: TFL, Times Higher Education
6 RESEARCH KNIGHT FRANK KNIGHT FRANK RESEARCH 7 “PLANS FOR REDEVELOPMENT HAVE BEEN ACCELERATED BY TOTTENHAM HALE’S SELECTION AS A KEY INTERCHANGE ON THE PROPOSED NORTH TO SOUTH CROSSRAIL 2 ROUTE.”
Patrick Gower, Residential Research [email protected] If you would like further insight into residential markets please get in touch.
RECENT MARKET-LEADING RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH RESEARCH LAND INDEX
RISING COSTS AND UNCERTAINTY CURB LAND VALUE GROWTH Increasing build costs, patchy house price growth and increased economic LONDON LONDON uncertainty are, to different degrees, weighing on land values in urban brownfield, greenfield and Prime central London locations. RESIDENTIAL RESIDENTIAL Average greenfield development land outlined above. That’s the first annual Key Facts Q4 2018 prices declined 0.6% in Q4 2018, down decline since Knight Frank began tracking Average greenfield development land from 2.6% growth in Q3, paring annual Urban Brownfield land values in Q4 2015. DEVELOPMENT growth to 0.6%. Labour costs continue to REVIEW prices declined 0.6% in Q4, taking the Values edged up 1.0% during the quarter, annual growth to 0.6% edge up and the relatively weak pound has H1 2019 however, following a 2.3% decline in Q3, led SPRING 2019 made imported building materials more by gains in Birmingham City Centre sites. costly for housebuilders. Urban brownfield development land Birmingham remains undersupplied when prices returned to growth, climbing Anecdotally, site visitor numbers remain it comes to housing, according to official 1.0% during the quarter. The annual robust, though customers are taking longer data, though heightened activity in the land change was -0.5% to commit to purchases, particularly in the south of England. In the resale market market during the past three years has during the first nine months of this year, meant a high quality pipeline is emerging. Prime central London development when compared with 2016, the average Developers are likely to be increasingly land values declined 2.8%, taking the time taken from listing a home to sale selective when purchasing land during the annual decline to 5.6% agreed in the East of England, the South coming quarters. East and London climbed more than 30%, In Prime central London, land values according to Rightmove data. By contrast, declined 2.8% in Q4, taking the annual the time taken from listing to sale agreed decline to 5.6%. Values have dropped over the same period declined by 5.6% almost 20% since the peak of the market in in the East Midlands, 11.4% in the West Q3 2015, and with the weak sterling, some Midlands and 9.9% in the North West. notable buyers have decided Prime central These risks, alongside economic uncertainty London land now represents good value. over Britain’s impending departure from the Sites of all types are transacting, though European Union, have prompted developers volumes remain low. The central London to increase their margins, which is land market is also susceptible to negative suppressing growth in greenfield land values. sentiment relating to Brexit and land Urban brownfield land values declined by owners are in many cases choosing to wait 0.5% during 2018, also for the reasons for more clarity before choosing to sell.
FIGURE 1 FIGURE 2 Residential development land prices Annual change in average land values Rebased 100 = Sep 2011 (Urban Brownfield = Dec 2014)
Prime Central London Urban Brownfield Prime Central London Urban Brownfield English Greenfield English Greenfield MULTIHOUSING 150 10.0%
7.5% 140 2019 5.0%
PATRICK GOWER 130 2.5% Associate, UK Residential Research 0.0% 120
Index PRS RESEARCH “ Labour costs continue to -2.5% edge up and the relatively 110 -5.0% weak pound has made -7.5% Sector update | Tenant Survey 2019: Results | Investor Survey 100 imported building materials -10.0%
more costly for housebuilders.” 90 -12.5% Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 @patrickgower OUTPERFORMANCE VERSUS PENT-UP DEMAND BUILDS ASKING PRICES ADJUST [email protected] Source: Knight Frank Research Source: Knight Frank Research OTHER ASSET CLASSES UK Res Dev Land Index The UK Tenant Survey The London Review London Residential – Q4 2018 – 2019 – Spring 2019 Development H1 2019 Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH to a wide range of clients worldwide including
The global perspective on prime property and investment FOCUS ON: EASTERN developers, investors, funding organisations, PARSONS GREEN OPPORTUNITIES 2016 2019 corporate institutions and the public sector.
THE WEALTH REPORT 2019 All our clients recognise the need for expert independent advice customised to their specific needs. FOCUS ON: THE LOWER LEA VALLEY STUDENT 2018/19 ACCOMMODATION SURVEY 2018/19
CONNECTIVITY DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE FORECASTS The Wealth Report Focus on: The Lower Eastern Opportunities Knight Frank/ UCAS 2019 Lea Valley - 2018/19 2019 Student Housing Get in touch Survey - 2018/19 If you’re thinking of buying or selling, Knight Frank Research Reports are available at KnightFrank.com/Research or would just like some property advice, please do get in touch. Important Notice © Knight Frank LLP 2019 – This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Edward Robinson Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Knight Frank LLP for any loss or damage resultant +44 207 718 5211 from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank LLP in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report [email protected] in whole or in part is not allowed without prior written approval of Knight Frank LLP to the form and content within which it appears. Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England with registered number OC305934. Our registered office is 55 Baker Street, London, W1U 8AN, where you may look at a list of members’ names.