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Socio-Economic Study of Key Impacts from Lake Turkana Wind Power (LTWP)

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Socio-Economic Study of Key Impacts from Lake Turkana Wind Power (LTWP) June 4st, 2018 Final report Socio-economic study of key impacts from Lake Turkana Wind Power (LTWP) PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS ON KEY IMPACTS FROM THE LTWP PROJECT AND METHODOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR FUTURE ASSESSMENTS Mette Dalgliesh Olsen and Thomas Westergaard-Kabelmann QBIS | DENMARK Socio-economic study of key impacts from Lake Turkana Wind Power (LTWP) Table of Content 1 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................... 2 2 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 5 Motivation ..................................................................................................................................... 5 Introduction to the Lake Turkana wind power (LTWP) project .................................................... 6 Study objective .............................................................................................................................. 9 How to read this report .............................................................................................................. 10 3 Review of existing literature ............................................................................................................... 11 Impacts from wind farm development ....................................................................................... 11 Impacts from renewable energy access ..................................................................................... 13 Impacts from rural road access ................................................................................................... 15 4 Methodology ....................................................................................................................................... 21 Scope ........................................................................................................................................... 21 Impact terminology and approach.............................................................................................. 24 Analytical framework: Impact pathway for the LTWP project ................................................... 25 Data collection and analysis ........................................................................................................ 28 Study limitations and considerations for future assessments .................................................... 29 5 Empirical context ................................................................................................................................ 32 Kenya’s socio-economic and energy context – The national level ............................................. 32 Profile of Marsabit County and LTWP project area – The local level ......................................... 34 6 Preliminary impact evaluations of LTWP ............................................................................................ 40 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 40 Traffic and transport evaluation ................................................................................................. 40 Rural economy evaluation .......................................................................................................... 52 Education and health evaluation ................................................................................................ 70 Governance and community cohesion ....................................................................................... 78 Energy supply and costs evaluations .......................................................................................... 86 7 Conclusion and input for future evaluations .................................................................................... 107 List of references ....................................................................................................................................... 109 Appendix A: Detailed impact pathway ..................................................................................................... 115 Appendix B: Field visit overview ............................................................................................................... 116 Appendix C: Indicators from impact pathway and raw observations ....................................................... 121 Appendix D: Traffic survey questionnaire ................................................................................................. 122 1 Socio-economic study of key impacts from Lake Turkana Wind Power (LTWP) 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Investments in renewable energy are generally expected to deliver on three dimensions which are intrinsically linked to the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals: Climate change mitigation, increased access to affordable and clean energy and economic development and job creation. In this context, wind energy holds significant potential, especially in a developing country context challenged by energy insecurity, poverty and climate change. Even so, existing evidence of the socio- economic impact potential of wind farm developments has to date largely focused on high-income countries with less evidence on the potential advantages or disadvantages to developing countries with high-level of poverty concentrations. Further, existing studies have tended to focus on distinct parts of the equation rather than the sum of impacts generated by integrated wind farm developments with auxiliary investments in rural economies. To facilitate further insights into the socio-economic impact potential of large-scale wind farm investments in a developing country context, Vestas, IFU, Finnfund and Norfund (hereinafter the Clients) have commissioned a preliminary study of some of the emerging socio-economic impacts from their investment in the Lake Turkana Wind Power project in Kenya (hereinafter the LTWP project). The LTWP project is a large-scale wind farm development which upon its completion is the largest of its kind on the African continent and Kenya’s biggest single private sector investment in its history. Beyond commercial returns, the stated objective of the LTWP project is to provide a reliable, low cost energy base to the Kenyan population while ensuring that the local communities benefit from the project. With this study, the Clients wish to take the first step towards better understanding what impacts can be expected from their investments in various aspects of the LTWP project. At the same time, the Clients are seeking inspiration for how to approach future impact assessment and monitoring programs in future wind farm developments and investments. Building on an extensive review of the existing literature, the study presents a so-called impact pathway which provides an initial overview of some of the main inputs, outputs, outcomes and impacts which can be expected from the elements of the LTWP project assessed in this study. Impact pathways are well-established as the foundation for impact assessments and has been used in this study to outline some of the main causalities and impact dimensions which are relevant to consider in an empirical evaluation. Specifically, the pathway identifies five impact dimensions which can be linked to the elements of the LTWP project included in this preliminary study: Traffic and Transport, Rural Economy, Health & Education, Governance & Community Cohesion and Energy Supply and Costs. The study proceeds to analyze a selection of the outcome and impact indicators identified in the LTWP impact pathway within each of the five categories. The main results from the preliminary impact evaluation is included in Table 1.1. 2 Socio-economic study of key impacts from Lake Turkana Wind Power (LTWP) Table 1.1: Executive summary – Overview of key results from preliminary impact assessment 1. Traffic and 2. Rural Economy 3. Health & 4. Governance & 5. Energy Supply & Transport Education Community Costs Cohesion LTWP access road LTWP access road, LTWP access road, LTWP access road, LTWP wind farm Local capacity Local capacity Local capacity (second-order building, LTWP wind building building effects) farm (first-order Caused by Caused effects) Traffic survey Market survey, Secondary data Secondary data Feasibility interviews with local assessment Data NGO, job/salary data (secondary data) ● Transport time ● 20-30% price ● Anecdotal ● LTWP access road ● Based on a rough reduced from 1-2 decrease for certain evidence of represents a six-fold assessment that days to 4 hours after foods at local increased access to, increase of the LTWP can reduce LTWP access road markets and quality of, health county government’s power outages by and education annual budget on 12.5%, it is estimated ● Nine- and three- ● Growth of fresh facilities from select infrastructure to generate USD 332 fold increase in fish market with a local capacity (2015/16) million in production, passenger and three-fold net value building projects USD 176 million in freight transport, increase for local ● Increased presence GDP and 54,000 jobs respectively, after fishermen ●19% of bus of local government at a national level. LTWP access road passengers along (services and ● Direct job creation project road are security) observed by ● Further, a Key findings Key ● Average transport from LTWP Ltd. and nurses and teachers communities
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