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Stock Select Monthly Stock Select Monthly March 2016 Risk Factor Top 40 up 0.75% this year Small Cap in focus In this edition: Steinhoff International Invest in one of our portfolios NV Do not have the time to actively manage your portfolio? – Let us do it for you. We have been managing wealth for our clients JSE Winners & Losers (page 3) since 1969. We have well qualified and experienced portfolio managers and analysts to Top 40 Recap (page 3) select the right shares for you. By paying a small management fee you can sit Small Cap Focus (page 16) back and relax and see your money grow. Contact us on 011-3751000 or mail us on [email protected] to find out more. Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document 1 Stock Select Monthly – March 2016 Table of Contents Executive Summary JSE Winners and Losers 3 Welcome to the March 2016 edition of Stock Select Monthly, a monthly publication produced by Thebe Stockbroking for our private clients. Top 40 Key Events and Results 3 The JSE All Share Index closed 5.74% higher in March supported by strong JSE Indices Performance 5 performances in platinum and financial shares. Platinum shares were the best performers during March, rising as a group by 24.98% followed by Top 40 Focus 6 banking shares that gained 13.43%. Platinum shares benefitted from increased demand for the metal - the platinum price rose by more than 4% Top 40 Stock Pick Performances 6 during the month - while banking and financial shares benefitted from an increase in the repo rate. Of all the main JSE indices, the gold index (down Top 40 Stock Selection 7 2.48%) was the sole decliner during the month. However, the index is still up 92% for the year. Market Focus – Steinhoff International 9 During March the Reserve Bank raised the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 7% from 6.75%, the second increase this year. The Bank said that it Top 40 Share Price Moves 11 expects inflation to exceed its 3% to 6% target band until 2017. The Bank also cut its growth forecast for 2016 to 0.8%, which would be the weakest since Mid-to Small Cap Focus – ARB Holdings 16 the 2009 recession. Following the repo rate hike South African consumer inflation (CPI) accelerated to 7.0% y/y in February, the fastest pace since June Mid-to Small Cap Share price Moves 19 2009, from 6.2% in January. The acceleration in inflation is adding to the central bank’s policy dilemma of rising consumer prices and slowing economic growth. Producer inflation (PPI) accelerated to its highest level in more than a year to 8.1% y/y. South Africa’s trade deficit narrowed to a R1.07 billion in February from a revised R17.96 billion shortfall in January. The current account deficit widened more than estimated, reaching 5.1% of GDP in Q4:15. The rand reached a 4-month high against the US dollar on 31 March 2016, trading at R14.65. The rand also appreciated against the euro and the pound. When the compared to the end on February the rand gained 7.48% against the US dollar, 3.15% against the euro and 4.36% against the pound. On a year-to-date basis the rand has gained 5.22% against the US dollar, 0.57% against the euro and 6.47% against the pound. On 31 March 2016 the Constitutional Court found that President Jacob Zuma failed to respect the constitution when he ignored the instructions from the Public Protector to repay some of the money spent on his private home. From an individual share perspective, the share price of Delrand Resources (DRN) recorded the largest gain in March, increasing by 3574%. The share price of Labat Africa (LAB) was the biggest loser by falling 61% in March. For the year-to-date, the share price of Delrand (DRN) Resources rose by 1590% while the share price of Andulela Investment Holdings (AND) declined by 68% making it the worst performer. AngloGold Ashanti reclaimed a position in the Top 40 Index in March, ousting PSG Group in the process following the JSE’s first quarterly Index review of the year. The JSE also placed Gold Fields (GFI) and Sibanye Gold (SGL) on its reserve list for possible inclusion into the index. Harmony Gold (HAR) moved back into the top 100 companies after languishing in the small-cap category for most of 2015, while Grindrod (GND) and Adcock Ingram (AIP) slipped out of the top 100 and into the small-cap index. In this issue of Stock Select, we review the performances of our recent Top 40 stock picks and profile the winners and losers on the JSE. We also review key updates and results from the Top 40 shares that have occurred during the month. In our Top 40 focus on page 9, we discuss why the Steinhoff International could be an attractive investment option and on in our Mid-to- Small Cap Focus we provide an update on ARB Holdings’ latest results. Analyst Top 40 Recommendation changes during March 2016 Movement Up/ Company Code Previous Analyst Recommendation Current Analyst Recommendation Down Barclays Africa BGA BUY HOLD FirstRand FSR BUY HOLD RMB Holdings RMH HOLD BUY Standard Bank SBK HOLD SELL Sasol SOL BUY HOLD Tigerbrands TBS HOLD BUY Source: Bloomberg Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document 2 2 Stock Select Monthly – March 2016 JSE Winners & Losers Top 40 Company Results & Key Events Anglo American PLC (AGL) Best Performing Shares (YTD 2016) Anglo announced that it had completed its bond buy-back programme that resulted in an immediate $130 million reduction in net debt. Share Price Share Price Company Code % Change (31/12/15) (31/03/16) Anglo American Platinum (AMS) Delrand DRN 50 845 1 590.00% Disposal Harmony Gold HAR 1 560 5 303 239.94% Anglo announced that the Competition Commission had approved the sale of Hwange Colliery HWA 26 69 165.38% its Rustenburg operations to Sibanye Gold subject to certain conditions and Assore ASR 6 210 16 100 159.26% qualifications. Sibanye Gold. SGL 2 285 5 664 147.88% Aspen Pharmacare (APN) DRDGOLD DRD 261 596 128.35% Interim results for the 6 months to 31 December 2015 African Rainbow ARI 4 345 9 503 118.71% Aspen reported headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 418.8cps, which is a Amplats AMS 18 534 36 188 95.25% decline of 22.7% (1H15: 541.7cps). Kumba Iron Ore KIO 4 120 7 954 93.06% AngloGold ANG 10 626 20 450 92.45% Barclays Africa (BGA) Final results for the year ended 31 December 2015 Worst Performing Shares (YTD 2016) Barclay’s Africa reported HEPS of 1,687cps, which is an increase of 9.7% (FY14: 1,538cps). A final dividend of 550cps was declared taking total dividends to Share Price Share Price Company Code % Change 1,000cps, which reflects an 8.1% increase (FY14: 925cps). (31/12/15) (31/03/16) Disposal Andulela AND 109 35 -67.89% Barclay’s PLC announced its intention to divest its 62.3% shareholding in Labat Africa LAB 150 54 -64.00% Barclay’s Africa. Mediclinic MEI 42 408 18 976 -55.25% Delta EMD DTA 300 135 -55.00% BHP Billiton (BIL) Erin Energy ERN 5 210 3 130 -39.92% Acquisitions Net 1 UEPS NT1 20 600 13 450 -34.71% BHP Billiton announced that it was looking at possible acquisitions of copper Nutritional NUT 3 2 -33.33% and petroleum assets in a bid to revive profits apart from further cost cuts. Verimark VMK 49 33 -32.65% Cognition CGN 194 131 -32.47% Capitec (CPI) Capital & Counties CCO 10 250 7 000 -31.71% Final results for the year ended 29 February 2016 Capitec reported HEPS of 2,787cps, which is an increase of 26% (FY15: 2,209cps). A final dividend of 680cps was declared taking total dividends to Best Performing Shares (March 2016) 1,055cps, which reflects a 26% increase (FY15: 836cps). Share Price Share Price Company Code % Change FirstRand (FSR) (29/02/16) (31/03/16) Interim results for the 6 months to 31 December 2015 Delrand DRN 23 845 3573.91% FirstRand reported HEPS of 185.4cps, which is an increase of 2.7% (1H15: Imbalie Beauty ILE 10 18 80.00% 180.5cps). An interim dividend of 108cps was declared, which reflects a 16% Sasol Inzalo SIPBEE 2650 4400 66.04% increase (1H15: 93cps). Montauk MNK 880 1400 59.09% Wescoal Holdings WSL 97 153 57.73% Growthpoint (GRT) Atlatsa Resources ATL 42 65 54.76% Interim results for the 6 months to 31 December 2015 Beige BEG 2 3 50.00% Growthpoint reported distributions per share (DPS) of 89.5cps, which is an African Dawn ADW 2 3 50.00% increase of 6% (1H15: 84.4cps). The board expects DPS growth for FY16 to be Murray & Rob. MUR 897 1260 40.47% in line with 1H16. Impala Platinum IMP 3346 4700 40.47% MTN Group (MTN) Worst Performing Shares (March 2016) Final results for the year ended 31 December 2015 MTN reported HEPS of 746cps, which is a decrease of 51.4% (FY14: 1,536). A Share Price Share Price final dividend of 830cps was declared taking total dividends to 1,310cps, Company Code % Change (29/02/16) (31/03/16) which reflects a 5.2% increase (FY14: 1,245cps). Labat Africa LAB 138 54 -60.87% The Nigerian Communications Commission restored regulatory services to Andulela AND 80 35 -56.25% MTN Nigeria, with the outcome of the proposed fine still pending.
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