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China Resources Beer Margin Improvement Story Priced In 13 July 2018 Hong Kong EQUITIES China Resources Beer 291 HK Underperform Margin improvement story priced in Price (at 13:02, 12 Jul 2018 GMT) HK$36.60 Valuation HK$ 28.00 Key points - PER Beer industry growth rate could turn to negative territory in June. 12-month target HK$ 28.00 Potential market share loss post price hike? Upside/Downside % -23.5 Adjusted profit growth is factored in the share price. 12-month TSR % -22.8 Volatility Index Low/Medium GICS sector Food, Beverage & Event Tobacco Market cap HK$m 118,737 We provide a preview for China Resources Beer (CRB) in 1H18 and reiterate Market cap US$m 15,127 our non-consensus Underperform rating. We believe CRB will benefit from price hikes in 1H18 and deliver GPM expansion. We project 1H18 revenue will Free float % 48 grow by 11%, reported profit and adjusted profit will go up by 36% and 52%, 30-day avg turnover US$m 33.1 respectively. However, this positive news has been reflected in the share Number shares on issue m 3,244 price. On the other hand, we are concerned that CRB could lose market share Investment fundamentals due to aggressive price hikes in 1H18. Meanwhile, the June China beer production decline also triggered our concern that there is potential high Year end 31 Dec 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E channel inventory and whether there could be higher competition in 2H18. Revenue m 29,732 32,433 33,072 34,064 EBIT m 2,683 3,495 3,555 3,905 The shares are trading at 38x adjusted FY19E PER and 19x FY19E EBIT growth % 17.1 30.3 1.7 9.9 EV/EBITDA, much higher than 18x FY19E PER and 11x FY EV/EBITDA Reported profit m 1,175 1,749 1,970 2,207 global breweries average. Our 2018/2019 reported profit is 12% and 23% Adjusted profit m 1,907 2,637 2,642 2,871 EPS rep Rmb 0.36 0.54 0.61 0.68 lower than consensus. Maintain UP with a new TP of HK$28 (from HK$27.20) EPS rep growth % 66.1 48.9 12.6 12.1 based on an unchanged 25x 2019E PER. EPS adj Rmb 0.59 0.81 0.81 0.88 EPS adj growth % 103.5 38.3 0.2 8.7 Impact PER rep x 85.8 57.7 51.2 45.7 The beer industry growth rate could turn negative in June. During Jan- PER adj x 52.9 38.2 38.2 35.1 May 2018, the domestic output volume increased 2.3% YoY. However, our Total DPS Rmb 0.14 0.21 0.23 0.26 industry checks indicated that June production growth is disappointing. Total div yield % 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 ROA % 6.4 8.6 8.6 9.0 Distributors do not rule out destocking in June so they can pave the way for ROE % 10.6 13.8 13.0 13.2 better growth in 3Q18. This data point could imply that real demand volume EV/EBITDA x 23.4 19.1 18.6 17.3 growth might not as promising as previously expected. Net debt/equity % -6.9 2.0 -10.7 -14.2 P/BV x 5.5 5.1 4.8 4.5 Potential market share loss post price hike? According to our proprietary staple price tracker (link), in the first five months, sales of CRB decreased by 291 HK rel HSI performance, & rec history 5% YoY, while that of Tsingtao increased 7% YoY. Thus, we are concerned that CRB could lose market share post price hike. According to distributors, CRB was the most aggressive in raising prices in 1H18, compared to Tsingtao and AB InBev. In our model, we projected low teen ASP increase (more driven by price hikes and less by product mix) and flattish volume growth in 1H18. Adjusted profit growth is factored in the share price. Based on our sensitivity analysis, the company is able to pass over the raw material cost pressure as long as ASP hikes >4%. Therefore, we projected the company can deliver 2.6% GPM expansion and operating leverage with 2.7% adjusted OPM lift to 13.7% for 1H18, and full year to 10.8%. We see limited upside for Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. adjusted OPM expansion as it is very similar to that of Carlsberg (14.2%). Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, July 2018 (all figures in Rmb unless noted, TP in HKD) Earnings and target price revision We raise our NP forecast for FY18/19 by 6%/5% with a higher TP at HK$28. Price catalyst Analysts 12-month price target: HK$28.00 based on a PER methodology. Macquarie Capital Limited Linda Huang, CFA +852 3922 4068 Catalyst: 1HFY18 result. [email protected] Action and recommendation Cici Yu +86 21 2412 9078 [email protected] Maintain Underperform rating. Please refer to page 5 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. Macquarie Research China Resources Beer Investment thesis: Reiterate Underperform; TP changed to HK$28/sh We maintain CRB at an Underperform rating and raise our target price to HK$28/sh based on an unchanged 25x adjusted 2019E PER. Meanwhile, we lift our NP forecasts by 6%/5% for FY18/19E as we believe CRB will be able to unlock the margin upside post price hike. We believe our 25x adjusted 2019E PER multiple is justified as the CAGR of 2017-2019 is ~25%. And this is higher than the 18x 2019E PER of global breweries. Fig 1 CRB historical PER (excluding impairment) bands Fig 2 CRB historical EV/EBITDA bands 50 160,000 45 40.0x 140,000 40 35.0x 23.0x 35 120,000 30.0x 30 20.0x 100,000 25.0x 25 17.0x 80,000 20 20.0x 14.0x 15 60,000 11.0x 10 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-18 Jul-18 Dec-18 40,000 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-18 Jul-18 Dec-18 Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, July 2018 Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, July 2018 Earnings revisions Revenue: We lower our top-line estimates for FY18 and FY19 to factor in the aggressive price hike. GP margin: We project the price hike will offset the raw material cost pressure and deliver 1.7ppt margin expansion in FY18. OP margin: We increase the operating profit margin by 0.6ppt and 0.7ppt for FY18E and FY19E. Fig 3 Earnings revision table Old Old Old New New New % chg. % chg. % chg. (Rmb m) 2018E 2019E 2020E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2018E 2019E 2020E Revenue 33,032 34,684 35,724 32,433 33,072 34,064 (1.8%) (4.6%) (4.6%) Gross Profit 11,241 11,907 12,372 11,588 11,727 12,181 3.1% (1.5%) (1.5%) Operating Profit 2,395 2,723 3,082 2,553 2,838 3,188 6.6% 4.2% 3.4% Pre-Tax 2,317 2,685 3,074 2,475 2,801 3,181 6.8% 4.3% 3.5% Net Income 1,646 1,878 2,120 1,749 1,970 2,207 6.3% 4.9% 4.1% Adjusted Net Income 2,346 2,567 2,799 2,637 2,642 2,871 12.4% 2.9% 2.5% EPS (Rmbc) 50.7 57.9 65.3 53.9 60.7 68.0 6.3% 4.9% 4.1% Margin (%) Gross Margin 34.0% 34.3% 34.6% 35.7% 35.5% 35.8% 1.7ppt 1.1ppt 1.1ppt OP Margin 7.3% 7.8% 8.6% 7.9% 8.6% 9.4% 0.6ppt 0.7ppt 0.7ppt Net Margin 5.0% 5.4% 5.9% 5.4% 6.0% 6.5% 0.4ppt 0.5ppt 0.5ppt Adjusted Net Margin 7.1% 7.4% 7.8% 8.1% 8.0% 8.4% 1.0ppt 0.6ppt 0.6ppt Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, July 2018 13 July 2018 2 Macquarie Research China Resources Beer Macquarie Quant View The quant model currently holds a marginally positive view on China Attractive Displays where the Resources Beer. The strongest style exposure is Price Momentum, company’s ranked based on indicating this stock has had strong medium to long term returns which often s l the fundamental consensus a persist into the future. The weakest style exposure is Valuations, indicating t n Price Target and this stock is over-priced in the market relative to its peers. e Macquarie’s Quantitative m a Alpha model. 260/584 d n u Two rankings: Local market Global rank in F (Hong Kong) and Global Food Beverage & Tobacco sector (Food Beverage & % of BUY recommendations 69% (11/16) Quant Tobacco) Local market rank Global sector rank Number of Price Target downgrades 0 Number of Price Target upgrades 7 Macquarie Alpha Model ranking Factors driving the Alpha Model A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their (higher is better). contribution to the current overall Alpha score. Woolworths Group 1.5 Woolworths Group Sun Art Retail Group 1.1 Sun Art Retail Group Tesco 0.9 Tesco China Resources Beer 0.5 China Resources Beer Carrefour -0.7 Carrefour -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Price Quality Momentum Momentum Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator Drivers of Stock Return The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple.
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