13-Oct-2014 -

Morning Matters

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TE A xF TE tA SET Intra-Day Graph WHAT’S INSIDE xF MT tA ax RT ct ON THE PLATTER ix rG st or Aviation Fuel Services (BAFS TB;FVTHB39.8-Neutral) : kV |o Expect Muted Growth This Year sa w BAFS is moving ahead with Suvanhabhumi Airport Phase 2, where it has |l t an indemnity clause should there be delays. The company is awaiting the u h awards announcement for Myanmar’s airport project and approval for its e | domestic multi-product pipeline project. We reduce our 2014 earnings | forecast by 4% to reflect lower 2014 sales volume. We trim our DCF-based Source: Bloomberg Key Market Indices (10 October 2014) TP to THB39.80 (WACC 9%). With a 7.6% upside, we downgrade the stock to NEUTRAL. Value Chg % Chg % YTD SET 1552.72 -7.89 -0.5% 19.6% SET50 1034.96 -6.74 -0.6% 17.2% MEDIAS HIGHLIGHTS SET100 2292.38 -14.99 -0.6% 18.6% 16544.10 -115.15 -0.7% -0.2% Dow Jones  True, MCOT chew the fat S&P500 1906.13 -22.08 -1.1% 3.1% Nasdaq 4276.24 -102.10 -2.3% 2.4%  Ministry tackles cassava glut FTSE 6339.97 -91.88 -1.4% -6.1%  SCPE to convert B2.5bn TUF bond into equity FSSTI 3223.87 -35.38 -1.1% 1.8% Hang Seng 23088.54 -445.99 -1.9% -0.9%  to launch simulcast Nikkei 15300.55 7.41 0.0% -6.1% KLCI 1808.88 -20.85 -1.1% -3.1% ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS SHANGHAI SE 2374.54 -14.83 -0.6% 12.2% JCI 4962.96 -30.92 -0.6% 16.1%  India’s Top-Growing Large State Seeks to Copy China Boom

Beijing Finds Agreement With IMF About Slowing China SET 5-yr avg 2012 2013 2014F  PE (x) 15.0 18.1 15.8 13.5  Draghi Weidmann Fight Intensifies as ECB Debates Action P/BV (x) 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.0  Italy on Sale to Chinese Investors as Recession Bites Yield (%) 3.4 3.0 3.0 3.4

Key Statistics

SET Value by investor Type: Daily Buy (THBm) Sell (THBm) (THBm) Institution 3,244.70 2,606.98 637.73 Proprietary 3,285.02 3,726.20 -441.18 Foreign 8,547.63 9,607.51 -1,059.87 Retail 23,399.50 22,536.18 863.32 SET Value by investor Type MTD (THBm) YTD (THBm) Institution -292.42 31,134.10 Proprietary -5,039.50 4,947.24 Foreign -2,397.15 -6,150.07 Retail 7,729.07 -29,931.27 SET50 Index Future Long Short Net MTD YTD Institution 20,555 18,977 1,578 24,806 32,667 Foreign 14,912 15,960 -1,048 -22,798 -70,825 Local 42,517 43,047 -530 -2,008 38,158 Foreign Fund Flows (USDm) Last MTD YTD YOY -32.7 -73.3 -161.1 25.0

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On The Platter Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services (BAFS TB;FVTHB39.8-Neutral) : Expect Muted Growth This Year BAFS is moving ahead with Suvanhabhumi Airport Phase 2, where it has an indemnity clause should there be delays. The company is awaiting the awards announcement for Myanmar’s airport project and approval for its domestic multi- product pipeline project. We reduce our 2014 earnings forecast by 4% to reflect lower 2014 sales volume. We trim our DCF-based TP to THB39.80 (WACC 9%). With a 7.6% upside, we downgrade the stock to NEUTRAL. Kannika Siamwalla, CFA +66 2862 9744 ([email protected])

See important disclosures at the end of this report 2

Medias Highlights True, MCOT chew the fat Pay TV operator TrueVisions is in talks with MCOT Plc about compensation it will pay the latter after its first concession expired last month. The talks about compensation are expected to be finished next month. The expired concession was a contract between MCOT and United Broadcasting Corporation (UBC), which ran from Oct 1, 1989 to Sept 30, 2014. , formerly Telecom Asia, took over two cable operators, International Broadcasting Corporation Plc and UTV, and in 1998 merged the two as UBC, which was renamed TrueVisions in 2007. However, TrueVisions has another pay TV concession under UBC Cable Networks Co, which will expire on Dec 31, 2019. After the concession expires, TrueVisions must return all assets to MCOT, the concession owner, including signal-transmission and -receiving equipment and devices such as satellite dishes, set-top boxes and subscription accounts. They are estimated to be worth more than 200 million baht. (Bangkok Post)

Ministry tackles cassava glut The government has pledged to use more cassava in ethanol production to curb negative effects on domestic cassava prices during the November-February harvest season. Commerce Minister Chatchai Sarikulya said his ministry will soon hold talks with relevant agencies to set policies and guidelines on how to promote ethanol production and agricultural zoning. The discussions will also cover the feasibility of setting up a cassava fund. Teerachart Soeikratok, secretary-general of the E-Sarn Cassava Association, said concerns were mounting among farmers that the massive supply from December-February would put added pressure on domestic cassava prices. Cassava is now quoted at 2.30 baht a kilogramme, marginally higher than the production cost of 2.24 baht per kg. (Bangkok Post)

SCPE to convert B2.5bn TUF bond into equity Standard Chartered Private Equity Ltd (SCPE) has confirmed it will exercise its right to convert a 60-million-euro (2.47 billion baht) euro-convertible bond (ECB) issued by Thai Union Frozen Products (TUF), the world's top exporter of canned and frozen tuna and shrimp, into 45.36 million shares. "The decision to convert the ECB into shares is a clear indication of SCPE's confidence in the outlook of TUF's business, its solid performance and strong competitiveness," said Thiraphong Chansiri, TUF's president and chief executive. SCPE is the sole holder of TUF's ECB issued in late October 2010 as part of a financing scheme to supply funds for the canned tuna manufacturer's acquisitions in Europe. The ECB carries a coupon rate of 5% with a four-year maturity. Without conversion, the bond would have matured for redemption later this month. TUF's fully paid-up shares after exercising the ECB will be 1.19 billion, said the company in a statement. "More importantly, this exercise will strengthen TUF's financial status," said Mr Thiraphong. (Bangkok Post)

Recommendation: The conversion would add share dilution of around 4% and this fund would add the company’s equity base by around THB2.5bn, which then help reduce D/E to 0.7x (from 0.83x). (Trading buy rating with THB77 – P/E 15x).

Channel 3 to launch simulcast Channel 3 will start its simulcast broadcasting today on the digital system on Channel 33 HD after the proposal was approved on Friday by the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC). This will prevent the analogue channel's blackout and end the Channel 3-NBTC dispute. BEC-Multimedia Co, the operator of Channel 33 HD, and Bangkok Entertainment Co, which holds the Channel 3 concession, jointly submitted a TV programming schedule for simulcast broadcasting to the NBTC. Supinya Klangnarong, a broadcasting commissioner, was glad to see Channel 3 agree to migrate its content to the digital system, saying it was a good sign for the fairness of the country's digitisation. All satellite and cable network providers must follow the Sept 8 resolution by the broadcasting committee, which ordered them not to carry Channel 3 on their platforms any more. This is similar to Channels 7 and 9, which have already started simulcast broadcasting. Surin Krittayapongphan, executive vice-president of BEC World Plc, claimed Channel 3 could migrate 100% of its analogue content to the digital system and do a simulcast by 12.01am this morning. (Bangkok Post)

See important disclosures at the end of this report 3

Economic Highlights

India’s Top-Growing Large State Seeks to Copy China Boom The chief of India’s fastest-growing major state says it’s time to build wealth through factories instead of farmland. Madhya Pradesh, a state larger than Italy and more populous than the U.K., must emulate China, Japan and South Korea to help its 73 million people become richer, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said in an Oct. 9 interview. The landlocked state’s economy grew 11 percent in the last financial year, twice as fast as the country as a whole, government data shows. “In the field of agriculture, Madhya Pradesh has reached its peak,” Chouhan, a member of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party who has governed the state since 2005, said in Indore as he hosted an investment conference. “Now we need to move toward industrialization.” Modi is pushing to lure foreign investment into manufacturing to boost growth and improve living standards that are the lowest among major emerging markets. He needs to work closely with state leaders to make that a reality, Frederic Neumann, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong, said by phone. (Bloomberg)

Beijing Finds Agreement With IMF About Slowing China Central bankers and International Monetary Fund officials agree with Beijing: a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy is considered healthy and there’s no need for further monetary easing. People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan reiterated the need for “prudent” monetary policy amid steady economic growth and “mild” inflation in an Oct. 11 report to the IMF in Washington. His statement comes before government reports of September inflation and credit this week; August data showed the weakest industrial-output expansion since the global financial crisis and a 40 percent drop in broadest measure of new credit from a year earlier. The slowing momentum in the Chinese economy is being seen as positive rather than alarming. Moderating growth will make it more sustainable, which will benefit both China and Asia, Malaysia’s Central Bank Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz said in an interview with Bloomberg News on the weekend. The balance between expansion and structural reforms that China is seeking is right so far, Markus Rodlauer, deputy director of IMF’s Asia Pacific Department, said at an Oct. 10 briefing. (Bloomberg)

Draghi Weidmann Fight Intensifies as ECB Debates Action Mario Draghi and Jens Weidmann are clashing anew over how much more stimulus the ailing euro-area economy needs from the European Central Bank. As Europe’s woes again proved the chief concern at weekend meetings of the International Monetary Fund in Washington, President Draghi repeated he’s ready to expand the ECB’s balance sheet by as much as 1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) to beat back the threat of deflation. Bundesbank head Weidmann responded by saying that a target value isn’t set in stone. The differences at the heart of European policy making risk leaving the ECB hamstrung as the region’s economy stalls and inflation fades further from its target of just below 2 percent. History suggests Draghi will ultimately prevail over his German colleague. The ECB is swelling its balance sheet as it seeks to revive inflation of 0.3 percent, its lowest in almost five years. By buying private-sector assets as it plans to do from this month or continuing to accept collateral from banks in return for cheap loans, it is pushing liquidity into the economy. Still unresolved is if it will ultimately buy sovereign debt, a taboo subject in Germany where politicians worry it amounts to financing governments and removing pressure on them to act. (Bloomberg)

Italy on Sale to Chinese Investors as Recession Bites Clotilde Narzisi and Luca Soliman have run the Caffe Orefici, 200 feet from Milan’s iconic Duomo Cathedral, for 10 years. Forced to sell their business because of high taxes, they say their only hope now is to leave it in Chinese hands. “They are the only ones who are buying,” said 43-year-old Narzisi during a break after the lunch-time rush of businessmen and shoppers in the heart of Italy’s financial capital. “We want to sell, taxes are too high; we work eight hours a day for the state and one hour for us.” Caffe Orefici is among the 18,000 advertisements from businesses and individuals that have been published since February last year on Vendereaicinesi.it -- sell to the Chinese -- a website that helps Italians, stricken by the third recession in six years, attract bids for properties, products and services from Chinese suitors. While Italian stores turn to the local Chinese community, the country’s largest companies are seeking investments directly from the Asian giant. Italy has been China’s biggest target in Europe after the U.K. this year, with cross-border acquisitions for $3.43 billion, according to Bloomberg available data. (Bloomberg)

See important disclosures at the end of this report 4

Outperform

Current Target Upside/ Rec. Price Price Downside PE (x) Yield (%) Remarks

(Bt) (Bt) (%) 2014F 2014F BBL Buy 197.50 220.00 11.4 10.2 3.9 CENTEL Buy 38.75 47.00 21.3 40.4 1.0 CPN Buy 46.25 55.00 18.9 14.4 1.7 DTAC Buy 103.00 140.00 35.9 19.5 4.7 PTT Buy 364.00 396.00 8.8 10.2 3.4 SAMART Buy 33.00 34.50 4.5 17.0 2.9 STEC Buy 25.75 31.50 22.3 19.5 2.0 UNIQ Buy 11.50 13.50 17.4 19.1 1.4

Top 10 Ranking

AOM Value AOM Value Symbol Last Change(%) Symbol Last Change(%) ('000 Baht) (Shares)

PTT 2,594,348 364.00 -11.00 (-2.93%) WAT 189,341,500 0.05 +0.01 (+25.00%) TRUE 2,239,194 11.40 -0.10 (-0.87%) RICH 794,700,400 1.28 +0.23 (+21.90%) SOLAR 1,558,053 10.50 +1.45 (+16.02%) BTNC 600 25.00 +4.40 (+21.36%) ADVANC 1,071,675 224.00 -2.00 (-0.88%) SOLAR 147,831,100 10.50 +1.45 (+16.02%) RICH 944,221 1.28 +0.23 (+21.90%) GLAND 44,269,900 3.82 +0.42 (+12.35%) SIRI 855,289 2.16 +0.10 (+4.85%) ACD 79,591,600 3.22 +0.30 (+10.27%) KTB 820,501 23.50 -0.20 (-0.84%) BSBM 99,791,700 1.47 +0.13 (+9.70%) KBANK 792,297 228.00 -2.00 (-0.87%) CSS 18,052,000 6.30 +0.55 (+9.57%) PTTEP 763,674 151.00 -1.00 (-0.66%) NIPPON 146,821,600 2.72 +0.22 (+8.80%) AOT 677,970 219.00 -4.00 (-1.79%) MLINK 55,769,100 3.22 +0.22 (+7.33%)

AOM Value AOM Value Symbol Last Change(%) Symbol Last Change(%) (Shares) (Shares)

NPARK 1,401,735,300 0.06 - (-) VNG 3,320,000 7.20 -1.25 (-14.79%) RICH 794,700,400 1.28 +0.23 (+21.90%) TTL 1,700 140.00 -22.00 (-13.58%) IEC 428,883,700 0.03 - (-) MACO 41,199,500 1.81 -0.15 (-7.65%) MAX 406,278,900 1.10 +0.06 (+5.77%) CWT 11,723,300 2.58 -0.18 (-6.52%) SIRI 400,756,400 2.16 +0.10 (+4.85%) SAWANG 5,300 15.90 -1.10 (-6.47%) GJS 322,111,000 0.08 - (-) PRECHA 5,681,200 2.66 -0.18 (-6.34%) TRUE 197,642,700 11.40 -0.10 (-0.87%) AFC 4,100 12.20 -0.80 (-6.15%) WAT 189,341,500 0.05 +0.01 (+25.00%) ML 26,420,700 2.36 -0.14 (-5.60%) ECL 186,544,500 2.30 +0.04 (+1.77%) NEW 700 59.75 -3.25 (-5.16%) EMC 171,686,900 1.28 +0.02 (+1.59%) ABC 5,896,900 4.02 -0.20 (-4.74%)

Source : Stock Exchange of (SET)

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Recent Stories

To access the report, please click on the following link: PTT Exploration & Production : Expect 3Q14 Earnings To Fall 32% Q-o-q Presales Momentum Continues Into 3Q14 Bangchak Petroleum : Completes NIDO Acquisition Krung Thai Bank : Operations Stable In 3Q14 Thailand Strategy : Tread With Caution In October Thailand E&P Sector : New Petroleum Exploration Bidding To Begin Soon Bangkok Bank : Making Quiet Improvements Thailand Consumer Sector : Mixed Effects From THB Depreciation LPN Dev : 3Q14 Numbers May Rebound Q-o-q PTT : Energy Minister Lays Out Goals AP (Thailand) Public Company Limited : Record High 3Q14 Presales From JV Condo Projects Pruksa Real Estate : Record High Total Presales In 3Q14 Thai Oil : Stock Loss Takes a Toll On Earnings Berli Jucker : Good Looking But Expensive BEC World : Prospects Dull On New Changes Thoresen Thai Agencies : Diversifies For Sustainable Growth Manufacturing Production Remained In Contraction, Improvement Remains Slow PTT : CNG And LPG Prices To Increase Exports Fell Deeper In August, Economic Recovery Remains Slow Total Access Communications : A Laggard Mobile Play Auto parts & Equipment : Recovery May Be Sluggish Natural Gas Price Renegotiation Possibilities PTT Exploration & Production : Another Deepwater Concession In Brazil PTT : Set To Build USD22bn Petrochemical Plant In Vietnam PTT : CNG And LPG Price Adjustments Imminent Growth to Pick Up In 2H 2014, Albeit Gradually Policy Rate Maintained At 2.00% For Fourth Straight Meeting Thai Union Frozen Products : Slight Incremental Value From Acquisitions Major Cineplex : A Bright Year Ahead Central Plaza Hotel : Recovery In Sight Thailand Construction Sector - Buy On Weakness To Capture Strong Growth In FY15 Thailand 4Q14 Strategy - Economy And Earnings To Recover In 4Q14 Hemaraj Land & Dev : Defensive Stock With Tiny Earnings Growth Samart Corp PCL : Positive Catalysts Seen For 4Q14 Sino-Thai Engineering & Construction : Poised For Double-Digit Earnings Growth In FY15 Krung Thai Bank (KTB TB:FVTHB 25.10-Buy): Aiming For Top Spot In Seven Years Regional Telecoms - 1H2014 Results Takeaways Jasmine International (JAS TB;FVTHB8.70-Buy) : Fast-Growing Fibre Optic Broadband Provider Strategy – Thailand (Overweight) : Boosting Domestic Consumption a 4Q14 Priority Ticon Ind Connection (TICON TB;FVTHB19.50-Neutral) : Modestly Cutting Earnings Forecast Inflation Continued Easing In August Gradual Improvement In Manufacturing Activities In July

Thailand Research Team

Veena Naidu Director Head of Research [email protected] +662 862-9752

Wanida Geisler Senior Vice President [email protected] +662 862-9748

Chalie Kueyen Senior Vice President [email protected] +662 862-9745

Kannika Siamwalla, CFA Head of Regional Oil & Gas [email protected] +662 862-9744

Chun Phokaisawan Senior Associate Research [email protected] +662 862-9999

Vikran Lumyai Senior Associate Research [email protected] +622 862-9999

Thanapol Withayaruksun Associate Research [email protected] +622 862-9999 Naruedom Mujjalinkool Associate Research [email protected] +622 862-9999

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RHB Guide to Investment Ratings

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