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Download Free ENERGY IN THE WEST NORDICS AND THE ARCTIC SCENARIO ANALYSIS Energy in the West Nordics and the Artic SCENARIO ANALYSIS Jakob Nymann Rud, Morten Hørmann, Vibeke Hammervold, Ragnar Ásmundsson, Ivo Georgiev, Gillian Dyer, Simon Brøndum Andersen, Jes Erik Jessen, Pia Kvorning and Meta Reimer Brødsted TemaNord 2018:538 Energy in the West Nordics and the Artic SCENARIO ANALYSIS Jakob Nymann Rud, Morten Hørmann, Vibeke Hammervold, Ragnar Ásmundsson, Ivo Georgiev, Gillian Dyer, Simon Brøndum Andersen, Jes Erik Jessen, Pia Kvorning and Meta Reimer Brødsted ISBN 978-92-893-5700-5 (PRINT) ISBN 978-92-893-5701-2 (PDF) ISBN 978-92-893-5702-9 (EPUB) http://dx.doi.org/10.6027/TN2018-538 TemaNord 2018:538 ISSN 0908-6692 Standard: PDF/UA-1 ISO 14289-1 © Nordic Council of Ministers 2018 Cover photo: Mats Bjerde Print: Rosendahls Printed in Denmark Disclaimer This publication was funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers. However, the content does not necessarily reflect the Nordic Council of Ministers’ views, opinions, attitudes or recommendations. Rights and permissions This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (CC BY 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 Translations: If you translate this work, please include the following disclaimer: This translation was not produced by the Nordic Council of Ministers and should not be construed as official. The Nordic Council of Ministers cannot be held responsible for the translation or any errors in it. Adaptations: If you adapt this work, please include the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by the Nordic Council of Ministers. Responsibility for the views and opinions expressed in the adaptation rests solely with its author(s). The views and opinions in this adaptation have not been approved by the Nordic Council of Ministers. Third-party content: The Nordic Council of Ministers does not necessarily own every single part of this work. The Nordic Council of Ministers cannot, therefore, guarantee that the reuse of third-party content does not infringe the copyright of the third party. If you wish to reuse any third-party content, you bear the risks associ- ated with any such rights violations. You are responsible for determining whether there is a need to obtain permission for the use of third-party content, and if so, for obtaining the relevant permission from the copy- right holder. Examples of third-party content may include, but are not limited to, tables, figures or images. Photo rights (further permission required for reuse): Any queries regarding rights and licences should be addressed to: Nordic Council of Ministers/Publication Unit Ved Stranden 18 DK-1061 Copenhagen K Denmark Phone +45 3396 0200 [email protected] Nordic co-operation Nordic co-operation is one of the world’s most extensive forms of regional collaboration, involving Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the Faroe Islands, Greenland and Åland. Nordic co-operation has firm traditions in politics, economics and culture and plays an important role in European and international forums. The Nordic community strives for a strong Nordic Region in a strong Europe. Nordic co-operation promotes regional interests and values in a global world. The values shared by the Nordic countries help make the region one of the most innovative and competitive in the world. The Nordic Council of Ministers Nordens Hus Ved Stranden 18 DK-1061 Copenhagen K, Denmark Tel.: +45 3396 0200 www.norden.org Download Nordic publications at www.norden.org/nordpub Contents Foreword ...................................................................................................................................7 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................. 9 List of abbreviations ................................................................................................................ 11 1. Executive summary ........................................................................................................... 13 1.1 The Arctic in numbers ............................................................................................. 13 1.2 Methodology ..........................................................................................................14 1.3 Technologies ......................................................................................................... 16 1.4 General results ........................................................................................................ 17 1.5 Greenland ...............................................................................................................18 1.6 Iceland ....................................................................................................................18 1.7 Faroe Islands .......................................................................................................... 19 1.8 Svalbard................................................................................................................. 19 1.9 Jan Mayen .............................................................................................................. 20 2. Introduction.......................................................................................................................21 2.1 Energy in the Arctic .................................................................................................21 2.2 Structure................................................................................................................ 24 3. Cross-cutting themes........................................................................................................ 25 3.1 Interconnectors ...................................................................................................... 25 3.2 Maritime transport (including fishing) ..................................................................... 27 3.3 Climate hardening................................................................................................... 27 3.4 Biomass ................................................................................................................. 28 4. Methodology .................................................................................................................... 29 4.1 Data collection ....................................................................................................... 29 4.2 Analysis tools .......................................................................................................... 31 4.3 Scenario definition ................................................................................................. 34 4.4 Sensitivity analysis ................................................................................................. 36 5. Future technologies ........................................................................................................... 37 5.1 Heat pumps and heat storage ................................................................................. 37 5.2 Low wind speed turbines ......................................................................................... 37 5.3 Hydrogen fuel cells ................................................................................................. 39 6. General results...................................................................................................................41 6.1 Electrification of heating is a must ...........................................................................41 6.2 Renewable energy will become the least costly choice ........................................... 42 7. Greenland......................................................................................................................... 45 7.1 Overview ............................................................................................................... 46 7.2 Scenario analysis .................................................................................................... 50 7.3 Recommendations ................................................................................................. 58 8. Iceland .............................................................................................................................. 59 8.1 Overview ............................................................................................................... 59 8.2 Scenario analysis .................................................................................................... 64 8.3 Recommendations .................................................................................................. 71 9. The Faroe Islands ............................................................................................................... 73 9.1 Overview ................................................................................................................ 74 9.2 Scenario analysis ..................................................................................................... 77 9.3 Recommendations ................................................................................................. 83 10. Svalbard ............................................................................................................................ 85 10.1 Svalbard ................................................................................................................
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