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Geopolitical Report Geopolitics of Saudi Arabia Geopolitical Report Geopolitics of Saudi Arabia: foreign policy, energy market, and Vision 2030 Volume II Year 2021 A publication of ASRIE Analytica Online ISSN: 2532-845X ASRIE Analytica Geopolitical Report Vol.2/2021 ISSN 2532-845X Geopolitical Report A publication of ASRIE Analytica The second volume of Geopolitical Report titled Geopolitics of Saudi Arabia: foreign policy, energy market, and Vision 2030 is published in partnership with Notizie Geopolitiche and CeSEM – Centro Studi Eurasia Mediterraneo and focuses the attention on Saudi Arabia deepening the knowledge of its foreign and domestic policy, socioeconomic strategy, cultural and religious background. Website: www.asrie.org Email: info@asrie.org Online ISSN: 2532-845X Date: March 2021 Editor: Giuliano Bifolchi Author: Christian Tratzi, C. Alessandro Mauceri, Filippo Marinoni, Luisa Marinoni, Silvia Boltuc, Stefano Vernole, Emma Visentin Scope ASRIE Analytica is a geopolitical analysis platform whose aim is to transform current events into valuable Intelligence for the decision-making process. Our goal is to interpret what is happening in the world filtering the amount of data and information which we consider not important in order to understand the contemporary international system and forecast future developments. ASRIE Analytica’s publication, Geopolitical Report, aims at investigating the current geopolitical and socio- cultural events and trends which are shaping the world of international relations, business and security creating a debate by allowing scholars and professional experts to share their views, perspectives, work results, reports and research findings. One can submit manuscripts, analytical reports, critical responses, short articles, com- mentaries, book reviews to info@asrie.org. Information about the organization’s goals, activities, projects and publications which can be freely downloaded can be found on the website www.asrie.org. Copyright © 2021 ASRIE Analytica All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, write to the publisher, addressed “Attention: Permissions Coordinator,” at info@asrie.org. Page 2 ASRIE Analytica Geopolitical Report Vol.2/2021 ISSN 2532-845X Index Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 5 Da Vision 2030 alla Belt and Road Initiative. Quale evoluzione per l’Arabia Saudita ................. 7 Introduzione ...................................................................................................................................... 7 La Nuova Via della Seta e la centralità geopolitica saudita ........................................................... 12 Conclusioni ..................................................................................................................................... 19 “Not all that glitters is gold oil”: The Belt and Road Initiative and its implications for Saudi Arabia ................................................................................................................................................ 20 The BRI: Chinese ambition for a ‘New World Order’ ................................................................... 21 Middle East and North Africa: a pivotal intersection ..................................................................... 22 ‘Enemies to lovers?’ ....................................................................................................................... 24 The BRI as a driver of regional development ................................................................................ 25 ‘A marriage of convenience?’ ........................................................................................................ 26 ‘A vibrant society, a thriving economy and an ambitious nation’: the BRI-2030 Vision conundrum ........................................................................................................................................................ 27 ‘Close but not too close’ ................................................................................................................. 29 Saudi Arabia – still the cornerstone of US Middle East Policy ..................................................... 30 ‘Economic dependence? No, thank you’ ........................................................................................ 30 “The friend of my friend is my (arch)enemy” ................................................................................ 31 Saudi Vision 2030, energy diversification and the Saudi nuclear program .............................. 33 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 34 Green Hydrogen for the country’s energy transition ...................................................................... 37 The Saudi race for nuclear energy .................................................................................................. 39 Saudi National Atomic Energy Project (SNAEP) and international agreements ........................... 41 Saudi nuclear program, security and geopolitics ............................................................................ 43 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................... 46 Page 3 ASRIE Analytica Geopolitical Report Vol.2/2021 ISSN 2532-845X Vision 2030: nuovo Rinascimento o percorso obbligato per l’Arabia Saudita? ........................ 48 Introduzione .................................................................................................................................... 49 Il momento del cambiamento: Saudi Vision 2030 e il ‘nuovo Rinascimento’ ............................... 51 Valutazione dello stato attuale di Vision 2030 ............................................................................... 52 Il ruolo della Fondazione Mohammed bin Salman (MiSK) ........................................................... 56 Vision 2030 non è solo Arabia Saudita .......................................................................................... 57 Conclusioni ..................................................................................................................................... 58 Geopolitica saudita in America settentrionale: la diffusione dell’ideologia Wahhabita .......... 61 Introduzione .................................................................................................................................... 61 La connessione di Muslim World League e Muslims Students’ Association con l’Arabia Saudita ........................................................................................................................................................ 64 Conclusioni ..................................................................................................................................... 69 What’s behind the Line? Luci e ombre del rivoluzionario progetto urbano saudita ............... 71 Introduzione .................................................................................................................................... 72 L’Arabia Saudita verso la sostenibilità? Saudi Vision 2030 e The Line ........................................ 73 Una prospettiva critica alla narrativa dominante: what’s behind The Line? .................................. 78 Conclusioni ..................................................................................................................................... 81 Page 4 ASRIE Analytica Geopolitical Report Vol.2/2021 ISSN 2532-845X Introduction Since January 2021 Italian media have covered Matteo Renzi’s official visit to Saudi Arabia and his meeting with Saudi prince Mohammad bin Salman. Renzi presented the country as a great opportunity for Italian companies interested in a dynamic market that is looking at the future and modernization. The aim of this publication is not to report all the polemics related to Renzi’s visit to Saudi Arabia or the financial benefits which the Italian politician received for his consulting service to the Saudi monarchy. Saudi Arabia is more important than Italian media speculation since the Mon- archy launched its strategy Saudi Vision 2030 to modernize the country and diversify the econ- omy. Undeniably, Saudi Arabia plays a strategic role in the Middle East and has raised as regional actors and international competitors in the world of international relations and geopolitics. Thanks to its oil reserve the Saudi family has transformed the country from ‘a land of camel and Bedouin’ to a regional power able to shape the Middle Eastern and Arab-Muslim world’s dy- namics. Saudi Vision 2030 might be interpreted as the last step necessary to ‘revolutionize’ Saudi Arabia and convert the nation into a futuristic logistic hub focused on green energy, Artificial Intelligence, and human development. Since the great interests that Saudi Vision 2030 has attracted, ASRIE Analytica in partnership with the Italian think tank CeSEM – Centro Studi Eurasia Mediterraneo and the Italian
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