Assessment of Permafrost Distribution Maps in the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region Using Rock Glaciers Mapped in Google Earth

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Assessment of Permafrost Distribution Maps in the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region Using Rock Glaciers Mapped in Google Earth The Cryosphere, 9, 2089–2099, 2015 www.the-cryosphere.net/9/2089/2015/ doi:10.5194/tc-9-2089-2015 © Author(s) 2015. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Assessment of permafrost distribution maps in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region using rock glaciers mapped in Google Earth M.-O. Schmid1, P. Baral1, S. Gruber2, S. Shahi1, T. Shrestha1, D. Stumm1, and P. Wester1,3 1ICIMOD, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, G.P.O. Box 3226, Kathmandu, Nepal 2Department of Geography & Environmental Studies, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada 3Water Resources Management group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands Correspondence to: M.-O. Schmid ([email protected]) Received: 30 July 2014 – Published in The Cryosphere Discuss.: 15 October 2014 Revised: 30 October 2015 – Accepted: 3 November 2015 – Published: 11 November 2015 Abstract. The extent and distribution of permafrost in the this study, the Permafrost Zonation Index is inferred to be a mountainous parts of the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) re- reasonable first-order prediction of permafrost in the HKH. gion are largely unknown. A long tradition of permafrost re- In the central part of the region a considerable deviation ex- search, predominantly on rather gentle relief, exists only on ists that needs further investigations. the Tibetan Plateau. Two permafrost maps are available digi- tally that cover the HKH and provide estimates of permafrost extent, i.e., the areal proportion of permafrost: the manually delineated Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost and Ground Ice 1 Introduction Conditions (Brown et al., 1998) and the Global Permafrost Zonation Index, based on a computer model (Gruber, 2012). Permafrost underlies much of the Earth’s surface and inter- This article provides a first-order assessment of these per- acts with climate, ecosystems, and human systems. The in- mafrost maps in the HKH region based on the mapping of teraction between permafrost, or its thaw, and human ac- rock glaciers. tivity is diverse and varies with environmental and societal Rock glaciers were used as a proxy, because they are vi- conditions. Examples include ground subsidence, vegetation sual indicators of permafrost, can occur near the lowermost change on pasture, slope instability, hydrological change, regional occurrence of permafrost in mountains, and can be damage to infrastructure, and special requirements for con- delineated based on high-resolution remote sensing imagery struction. This list is not exhaustive and it is likely that cli- freely available on Google Earth. For the mapping, 4000 mate change will bring about unexpected permafrost phe- square samples ( ∼ 30 km2) were randomly distributed over nomena and societal impacts in the future (cf. Gruber, 2012; the HKH region. Every sample was investigated and rock IPCC, 2014). A large proportion of the global permafrost re- glaciers were mapped by two independent researchers fol- gion is situated in mountain terrain. This includes densely lowing precise mapping instructions. Samples with insuffi- populated areas especially in the European Alps and Asian cient image quality were recorded but not mapped. high-mountain ranges. While permafrost in European moun- We use the mapping of rock glaciers in Google Earth as tains and its associated climate change impacts are compa- first-order evidence for permafrost in mountain areas with rably well investigated, little is known about permafrost in severely limited ground truth. The minimum elevation of many Asian mountain ranges. In this study, we focus on rock glaciers varies between 3500 and 5500 m a.s.l. within the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, which we use the region. The Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost and as one way for delineating a study region in the mountains Ground Ice Conditions does not reproduce mapped condi- of South and Central Asia (Fig. 1). The HKH region in- tions in the HKH region adequately, whereas the Global Per- cludes mountains in parts of Afghanistan, Bhutan, China, mafrost Zonation Index does so with more success. Based on India, Myanmar, Nepal, and Pakistan (Fig. 1). Comprised mostly of high-elevation rugged terrain, including the Ti- Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 2090 M.-O. Schmid et al.: Assessment of permafrost distribution maps in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region a. The Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost and Ground Ice Conditions (cf. Heginbottom et al., 1993; Brown et al., 1998) published by the International Permafrost Asso- ciation (IPA map). It is based on manually delineated polygons of classes (continuous, discontinuous, spo- radic, isolated patches) of permafrost extent (Heginbot- tom, 2002). The map has been digitized and is avail- able digitally from the Frozen Ground Data Center at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Boul- der, Colorado, USA. b. The Global Permafrost Zonation Index (PZI), avail- able on a spatial grid of about 1 km resolution (Gruber, 2012). PZI is an index representing broad spatial pat- terns but it does not provide actual permafrost extent or probability of permafrost at a location. It is based on a mathematical formulation of permafrost extent as a function of mean annual air temperature, a 1 km dig- ital elevation model (DEM) and global climate data. The parameterization is based on rules similar to those employed for the IPA map. Additionally, the uncer- Figure 1. The HKH region as defined by ICIMOD which includes tainty range is explored (a) with three parameter sets high mountains in Afghanistan, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, describing a best guess as well as conservative and anti- Nepal, and Pakistan. SRTM DEM version 4.1 from CGIAR at a conservative estimates of permafrost extent and (b) us- spatial resolution of 90 m (Jarvis et al., 2008) shown in the WGS84 ing spatial fields of air temperature derived from global coordinate system. climate reanalysis (NCAR-NCEP) and from interpo- lated station measurements (CRU TS 2.0). Uncertainty is expressed in the resulting map product with a “fringe betan Plateau, the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalayan of uncertainty”, referring to a permafrost extent greater mountain ranges, more than half of its 4.5 million km2 are than 10 % in the coldest of the diverse simulations per- located above 3500 m a.s.l. As the source of the 10 largest formed. Asian river systems, the HKH region provides water, ecosys- tem services, and the basis for livelihoods to an estimated The application of either map in the mountainous parts of the population of more than 210 million people in the mountains HKH region is not straightforward, because (a) little informa- and 1.3 billion people when including downstream areas (Ba- tion on mountainous permafrost exists to establish their cred- jracharya and Shrestha, 2011). While glaciers and glacier ibility; (b) the range of environmental conditions in the HKH change have received considerable research attention in re- region is large and subject to conditions (such as monsoonal cent years (e.g., Bolch et al., 2012), large areas of permafrost summer precipitation, hyperaridity, or extreme elevation) for in the HKH region have barely or only partially been inves- which only limited knowledge exists; and (c) only few re- tigated. The Tibetan Plateau, as the only part of the HKH mote, high-elevation meteorological stations exist, usually in region, has a long tradition of permafrost research (Cheng valley floors, making the application of gridded climate data and Wu, 2007; Yang et al., 2010; Zhang, 2005); most of or the estimation of conditions in remote high-elevation ar- these studies, however, focus on a narrow engineering corri- eas error-prone. The required testing or calibration of models dor and/or on rather gentle relief. Ran et al. (2012) provide an (maps) of permafrost extent, unfortunately, is difficult and of- overview and comparison of the several Chinese permafrost ten avoided (Gruber, 2012), both for lack of data and for lack maps that include the Tibet Plateau and that reflect several of methods for comparing point observations such as bore- decades of research and development in this area. For loca- holes with spatial estimates of permafrost extent. tions with mountainous topography only sporadic informa- This study provides a first-order assessment of these two tion exists, especially along the southern flanks of the Hi- permafrost maps in the mountainous part of the HKH re- malayas (Owen and England, 1998; Shroder et al., 2000; gion. We use the qualifier “first-order” as only direct ob- Ishikawa et al., 2001; Fukui et al., 2007a; Regmi, 2008). servation of permafrost can provide a reliable evaluation. In Only two permafrost maps are available digitally that cover the absence of reliable information on permafrost in this re- the HKH region and provide estimates of permafrost extent, gion, such a first-order assessment is useful as it adds rel- i.e., the areal extend of permafrost: evant information on the approximate areas of permafrost occurrence. We use rock glaciers as a proxy, because they are visual indicators of permafrost, they can exist near the The Cryosphere, 9, 2089–2099, 2015 www.the-cryosphere.net/9/2089/2015/ M.-O. Schmid et al.: Assessment of permafrost distribution maps in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region 2091 lowermost regional occurrence of permafrost in mountains clearly defined and consequently we avoid this concept de- (Haeberli et al., 2006), and they can be delineated based on spite its prevalence in the literature. As an example, the data high-resolution remote
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