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Newpolitik The International Response to Crisis in the Middle East: AThieß PetersenGerman and Andreas Esche Approach Christian-P. Hanelt The wider Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, Germany, dominating media headlines and decision-makers’ stretching from Western Sahara through North Africa, the agendas. While its policymakers tend to promote multilateral Middle East, to the Hindu Kush, is arguably the most crisis-rid- and diplomatic solutions, Berlin feels increasing pressure to den in the world. The war in Syria, the refugee crisis and the take hard security measures against terrorism at home and fight against so-called “Islamic State” (IS) terrorism dominate in the MENA region. It is unclear, though, how much involve- the headlines. They are phenomena of many territorial, ideo- ment Germany’s allies expect of it and how much the German logical, socioeconomic and hegemonic conflicts complexly public would accept. intertwined across the broader MENA region. Between Washington and Berlin there is a difference of opin- 1. The Civil War in Syria and Western Iraq ion as to which countries belong to the region. The Near From the bankrupt estate of the Ottoman Empire after World East Office of the U.S. Department of State includes 18 Arab War I, the British and French colonial powers divided much states, Israel and Iran in the region. The “Broader Middle East of the Middle East into states with artificial borders, includ- and North Africa region” (BMENA), a term introduced by U.S. ing Iraq and Syria, which are home to 12 ethnic and religious President George W. Bush, also includes Turkey, Afghanistan groups. The military dictatorships of Hafez al-Assad in Syria and Pakistan, as well as the Arab state of Mauritania. Israel (1971–2000) and Saddam Hussein in Iraq (1979–2003) failed is excluded in this context from the region because of its eco- to organize the political and economic participation of these nomic strength. In its understanding of the region, the German groups into an inclusive state structure. The U.S.-led invasion Foreign Office places Turkey in the Europe portfolio and most of Iraq in 2003 toppled President Saddam Hussein and accel- of the Arab countries, Israel and Iran under the purview of the erated the disintegration of Iraq into three parts: Kurds, Shiites Middle East-North Africa Directorate. and Sunnis. The uprising against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, which began in 2011, has plunged This article counts the 22 member states of the Arab League, the country into civil war and fractured it into six domains. Israel, Turkey and Iran as belonging to the MENA region. At the same time, the spillover effects of crises in the bordering What began as a local war in Syria quickly took on a danger- countries of Afghanistan and Pakistan and the Sahara region ous dimension as powers in the region intervened, supporting are also important. various warring parties and switching alliances. Then in 2015, two events added another dimension to the war: The area stretching from Western Sahara to the Hindu Kush accounts for most of the world’s crises and wars. The refu- 1. Russian President Vladimir Putin militarily intervened on gee crisis, the fight against the Islamic State, and civil wars the side of the Assad regime while the administration of in Syria and parts of Iraq have caught the public’s attention in U.S. President Obama worked to train and arm some THE INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE TO CRISIS IN THE MIDDLE EAST: A GERMAN APPROACH 2 opposition groups. Washington and Moscow differ on the and political engagement is leading the West. Germany has future of Assad and which opposition groups are to be provided military equipment and training to the Kurdish pesh- treated as terrorist groups. merga in northern Iraq since 2014 for the ground fight against 2. Both Russia and the United States took the initiative to the Islamic State. This is a major political step, approved by fight the Islamic State militarily in Syria. the German federal parliament, the Bundestag, for a govern- ment that has in the past refrained from using German weap- Turkey’s main focus is limiting Kurdish sovereignty on its onry in regions of conflict and war outside NATO. border with Iraq, Syria and Iran. Iran seeks to strengthen the Shiite Hezbollah militias and needs the Assad regime The German public also takes an enormous interest in the in Damascus as a bridgehead in Lebanon for this purpose. fight against the Islamic State, which hundreds of young Saudi Arabia sees itself as a protector of the Sunnis and Germans have joined as fighters, with some returning radical- seeks to push back against Iranian influence in the Middle ized to Germany. Moreover in 2014, Iraqi Yazidis, Christians East. Moscow and Washington both want to fight Islamic ter- and Kurds who have lived in Germany for decades urgently rorism, but the United States would also like to drive back called for German support and protection for their compatriots Russian and Iranian influence in the region, while Putin seeks in Iraq who were being driven out and killed by the Islamic to elevate his position militarily and diplomatically. State. With many in Germany wondering how the Islamic State was able to become so strong in the MENA region, it Israel has stayed out of the fray, discreetly providing humani- is worth looking at the factors that led to the organization’s tarian assistance to Syrian rebel groups across the Golan bor- initial success in 2014 and 2015. The Islamic State: der. Occasionally, the Israeli air force bombs alleged Iranian rocket transports to Hezbollah militias in Lebanon, which have • Was able to rely on the minority Sunni tribes in Iraq that benefited from Russia’s military intervention on behalf of the have been politically and economically marginalized by Assad regime and Iran. Given that this new power axis views the central government in Baghdad. Israel as a strategic threat, Israel is intensifying its unofficial • Has experience in terror organization and warfare. Among cooperation with Iran’s adversaries Saudi Arabia, Jordan and its leaders are former officers of Saddam Hussein’s military Egypt, and building up its military-technical capability with and secret service, Arab jihadists who have already fought U.S. assistance. in Afghanistan and the Caucasus, and jailed Islamists The deep mistrust among the local warring parties and the released by Syria’s Assad. power rivalries in the Middle East thwart any significant polit- • Offered a regular monthly income to people who are unem- ical process, and the political actors remain absent from the ployed, including former members of the police and secret negotiating tables in Geneva. Despite UN resolutions (UNSC- services of Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen. Res 2254 and 2268) and agreements, the United States and • Provided directionless individuals with clear ideological Russia are still too far apart in their positions on the war in Syria to be able to pressure the regional and local parties rules of conduct, distinct hierarchical structures and guid- in the conflict to make political concessions. This stalemate ance on right and wrong. might break if presidents Donald Trump and Putin realize the • Raised considerable sums from ransom payments, extor- rapprochement they have already expressed verbally. tion, ambushes, antiquities smuggling, human trafficking, Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in Syria worsens. Prior the arms and drug trades, and the illegal sale of crude oil. to the outbreak of the civil war in 2011, 23 million people lived • Bases its ideology on jihadi currents of the ultra-conser- in the country; of that figure, 5 million have fled abroad and vative Salafist movement and indoctrinates many young 8 million are internally displaced. Sunnis and converts via the internet and social media in In light of the increased influx of Syrian refugees to Germany Europe and the Arabian Peninsula. since 2015, the complex conflicts in and around Syria have • Successfully uses videos of suicide attacks and executions become a German domestic issue. to spread terror and recruit fighters. 2. The Fight against the So-Called Islamic State • Maintains training camps outside its borders, in failed Since 2014, a coalition of more than 60 countries has been states such as Yemen and Libya. fighting from the air and on the ground in western Iraq and • Provided many poor people, from Raqqa to Mosul, with northern and eastern Syria to defeat the Islamic State, which medical care, food and education at the zenith of its power is losing territory. in 2014 and 2015. The fight against the terrorist group was a priority for the Now on its heels, the Islamic State has largely abandoned Obama administration in the Middle East, and U.S. military its “winning hearts and minds” approach and relies on brutal THE INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE TO CRISIS IN THE MIDDLE EAST: A GERMAN APPROACH 3 Newpolitik coercion to intimidate its own fighters and the local population fighting, with support from U.S.-led air strikes. The Islamic in the territory it still controls. State burns oil fields, destroys and mines areas, and Outside the Middle East, it is difficult to identify all potential kills and uses the local population as so-called “human IS terrorists because some act as so-called “lone wolves” shields.” The United Nations is preparing its aid organi- influenced by Islamic State propaganda. These are primarily zations to try to help thousands of refugees. young Muslim men, radicalized and incited by terrorist mes- 4. The Islamic State and the Taliban are stepping up their sages, who, sometimes with the help of friends, take it upon attacks and assaults in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

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