COMMENTS

found that even newer mobile homes built to better Comments on "Unsafe at Department of Housing and Urban Development Any (Wind) Speed? Test- (HUD) standards began to experience damage to roof and wall coverings at fastest-mile speeds of up to 42.5 ing the Stability of Motor m s_1 (95 mph) and significant structural damage at wind speeds of from 44.7 to 53.6 m s_1 (100-120 mph). Vehicles in Severe Winds" At wind speeds ranging from 53.6 to 60.3 m s_1 (120-135 mph), there were numerous instances of —J. GOLDEN units suffering total destruction. These and other re- Forecast Systems Laboratory, NOAA sults from wind engineers clearly indicate that even Boulder, Colorado tied-down mobile homes are unsafe for occupants even for the common F1-F2 tornadoes and some severe t seems to me that this paper (Schmidlin et al. 2002) thunderstorms (downbursts) as well. gives a careful, reasoned approach to an emotional I have long been opposed to giving any hint of and politicized public-safety issue: manufactured encouragement to the general public to use automo- housing safety in extreme windstorms. Golden and biles as a haven of last resort from severe windstorms Adams (2000) pointed out that "future research is of any kind. There has been a protracted debate be- clearly needed to determine the efficacy of various tween the meteorological and wind-engineering com- protective behaviors." The problem has been exacer- munities about whether or not automobile-sized mis- bated in the last decade by the fact that manufactured siles can be generated by strong violent tornadoes housing is the fastest-growing form of affordable (F4-F5). Wind engineers have argued that, at most, housing for many lower-income Americans, espe- automobiles could be lofted for short distances, but cially in the Sun Belt states. Golden (1999) empha- are likely bounced along the ground. The meteorolo- sized that in the late 1990s, the percentage of people gists have counterargued that automobiles have been in mobile homes accounted for 38%-51% of the tor- severely damaged or found wrapped around trees nado-related fatalities. This sad trend continues: dur- (Figs, la-e), and occasionally found landed on the tops ing 1999 tornadoes, there were 94 total fatalities, and of buildings after tornadoes (a Xenia, Ohio, school bus over one-third (34) of these were in mobile homes. was deposited somehow on the roof of the severely Finally, during 1998, the tornado fatality numbers damaged school during the F5 tornado in the 1974 were 130 and 64, respectively. Yet up to that time, only jumbo outbreak). Also during the jumbo outbreak, about 7% of the U.S. population lived in mobile one of the other F5 tornadoes at Brandenburg, Ken- homes. Moreover, in the year 2000, of the total 41 tucky, dropped a semitrailer truck on the damaged fatalities in tornadoes, 28 were in mobile homes, 7 in roof of a warehouse. This debate was settled in recent permanent dwellings, 4 in a vehicle, and 2 outside in years after the spectacular videos taken of the 8 June the open (NCDC 2000). Schmidlin et al. contend that 1995 strong tornado at Pampa, Texas, by the local "the percentage of all tornado deaths that occurs in sheriff and C. A. Doswell III. As the tornado passed vehicles has fallen from 17% in the 1970s to about 10% through the east side of Pampa's industrial park, un- in the late 1990's" (Hammer and Schmidlin 2001). occupied pickup trucks and vans were rapidly cen- However, for high winds and thunderstorm-related trifuged upward and outward a few hundred meters events during the year 2000 (NCDC 2000), there were above the ground by the tornado. There were reports 51 fatalities and 22 of these were in vehicles. During that some of these vehicles had been flattened by a the early 1990s, National Institute of Standards and recycling machine, and therefore had better aerody- Technology (NIST) scientists conducted careful namics for being lofted by the tornado. Nevertheless, poststorm assessments of mobile home structural per- had any of the vehicles been occupied, there surely formance and wind speed records; Marshall (1993) would have been fatalities. D. Burgess (2002, personal

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY DECEMBER 2002 BAflS* | 1831 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 06:41 PM UTC FIG. I. (a)-(e) Examples of likely sta- tionary vehicles, including a truck (a), that were severely damaged and moved by F2-F4 tornadoes.

communication) found after the 3-4 May 1999 Okla- on stationary vehicles. One suspects that the automo- homa City tornadoes that 40-50 automobiles in a car bile industry already has such data, plus tests could dealership were likely carried aloft about one-quarter be done by the wind engineering community (e.g., mile across the interstate highway (he searched but Texas Tech's "tornado cannon") to verify the asser- could not find any scratch marks or other indicators tion that "vehicles are designed to protect occupants for dragging or bouncing for most of the vehicles). in a crash or rollover and offer some protection from A word of caution to the authors: those of us who flying debris." have surveyed tornado damage over the years have Finally, we must stress that most tornado deaths found it very important to be on the scene quickly in automobiles are, indeed, people who are trying to (preferably within 24-36 h). It is a human trait to get to a safer refuge or outrun the tornado. The latter clean up debris rapidly following windstorms, and can be very risky, considering that some tornadoes therefore scientific evidence and perishable data are move with a forward speed of 25-30 m s-1. The au- often lost forever. The 3-10-day lag in the authors' thors point out the large number of fatalities (25) in tornado damage assessments means that some of the the Wichita Falls, Texas, tornado (caught in their au- important evidence on automobile safety may have tomobiles during rush hour) does not obviate the fact been lost. One important question that arises is: how that people staying in mobile homes had a much many of the unmoved automobiles had debris pen- greater risk of serious injury there. However, there are etration into the passenger compartment? Flying de- other more recent instances where the largest num- bris carried by the tornado and impacting/entering ber of tornado-related deaths were people trapped in the vehicle is still an issue, even if the vehicle is not their automobiles during rush hour traffic (Huntsville, moved or upset by the winds. One stark example was Alabama, 1986). Moreover, there have been several the F2 tornado at Stillwater, Oklahoma, on 15 May close calls by tornado chasers that got "too close" and 1990: a mother and child were parked in their auto- at least one death in Oklahoma by a storm chaser on mobile in front of their house, and the child was killed his way home (car hydroplaned on wet pavement). by flying debris penetrating the automobile. I agree with Schmidlin et al. when they state that I was one of those who urged Schmidlin et al. to "the purpose of (NWS + Red Cross) tornado safety perform wind tunnel testing and test the hypothesis recommendations should be to direct people to the that a stationary, parked automobile would be a safer place of least risk." The primary focus of the National place than a mobile home during tornadoes. While Weather Service (NWS) for implementing such safety the results presented here for two scale models sug- recommendations and communicating them to the gest this is the case, the arguments would be more public are the warnings and coordination meteorolo- convincing if full-scale wind tunnel tests were made gists (WCMs) at each Weather Forecast Office

1832 | BAflfr DECEMBER 2002 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 06:41 PM UTC (WFO). I do not believe that the results to date, while "the translation of improved science into improved encouraging in some ways, warrant official language services should also involve the incorporation of that encourages people in mobile home parks to physical science, social science, and the private sec- evacuate in their automobiles and drive away to some tor to develop improved warning communication and form of permanent shelter, if none is available in the coordination processes to allow for the utilization of mobile home park. I do concur with language that enhanced scientific detection and prediction." states that people, as a last resort and if no other per- manent safe haven is available nearby, should evacu- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. The author appreciates ate their mobile home for a stationary automobile helpful discussions with our NWS Denver/Boulder WCM, rather than lie down in a ditch or culvert. None of the Bob Glancy, and Don Burgess on this difficult issue. results to date ascertain the relative safety of driving a vehicle during high wind events, even those on the periphery of an approaching tornado, in order to get REFERENCES to a safer place. Nor do these results obviate the cur- Golden, J. H., 1999: Tornadoes. Storms, Vol. 2, R. A. rent safety recommendations that people in a mobile Pielke Sr. and R. A. Pielke Jr., Eds., Vol. X, Routledge home or out in the open with no permanent struc- Press, 103-132. ture nearby look for a ditch, culvert, or other low spot and C. Adams, 2000: The tornado problem: Fore- as a haven of last resort. I am told by WCMs that they cast, warning and response. Nat. Haz. Rev., ASCE, still get questions from the public about opening win- Vol. 1 (2), 107-118. dows before tornado strikes over two decades after Hammer, B., and T. W. Schmidlin, 2001: Vehicle-occu- that recommendation was removed! While we all may pant deaths caused by tornadoes in the United States, agree that evacuating the mobile home is essential 1900-1998. Environ. Haz., 2, 105-118. before a tornado or severe windstorm hits, there is not Marshall, R. D., 1993: Wind load provisions of the yet enough information to say a stationary car is safer manufactured home construction and safety stan- than driving short distances to permanent shelter, or dards-A review and recommendations for improve- that a car is always safer than a culvert or protected ment. NISTIR Rep. 5189, NIST Building and Fire Re- low spot. While this may be a futile wish, our scien- search Laboratory, Gaithersburg, MD, 73 pp. tific community should stand up and be counted in the NCDC, 2000: Storm Data. Vol 42. [Available from political arena regarding legislation requiring mobile NCDC, 151 Patton Ave., Asheville, NC 28801-5001.] home parks to have at least one permanent shelter. Schmidlin, T. M., Barbara Hammer, Paul King, Yuichi Even after the infamous 1991 Andover, Kansas, tor- Ono, L. Scott Miller, and Gregory Thumann, 2002: nado disaster, the mobile home industry has managed Unsafe at Any (Wind) Speed? Testing the Stability to defeat such legislation in many states. I reiterate the of Motor Vehicles in Severe Winds. Bull. Amer. Me- recommendation made by Golden and Adams (2000): teor. Soc., 83, 1821-1830.

tornado in a vehicle. T. W. Schmidlin has spent nu- Comments on "Unsafe at merous hours in studying the safety issues of taking Any (Wind) Speed? Test- cover in automobiles and in examining the effects of tornadic winds on vehicles. This paper is very good ing the Stability of Motor in that it explains the physics behind these effects. The paper should be viewed cautiously in that it can be Vehicles in Severe Winds" interpreted as saying one is totally safe in taking cover in vehicles. —DANIEL MCCARTHY The procedures taken in this project were com- Storm Prediction Center, NOAA pelling. The group at Kent State University docu- Norman, Oklahoma mented experiences in severe winds by a few storm chasers and then compared the findings with experi- ments in a wind tunnel. These tests were simulations his (Schmidlin et al. 2002) is a well-written pa- for tornadoes with up to F3 winds (158-206 mph, per about a subject literally on the edge: how safe 71-92 m s-1). The authors present probabilities of Tit would be to take shelter from an approaching surviving tornadoes, stating only 4% to 28% of the AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY DECEMBER 2002 BAflS* | 1833 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 06:41 PM UTC vehicles within areas of F1-F2 damage were tipped tion when trying to be safe during a tornado. A hel- over or moved, and that 18%-50% of the vehicles met would provide additional protection. But, one within areas of F3-F4 damage were tipped over or must remember that the majority of injuries sustained moved. in tornadoes are from flying debris. A 6 in. x 8 in. How many of us remember the infamous video board used to support roofing or flooring can pierce from 26 April 1991 when a tornado approached an an engine block, much less a glass windshield and the overpass near El Dorado, Kansas? A television re- human body! porter and his photographer caught on tape the ap- Mobile homes are definitely a safety issue when proaching tornado as they took cover underneath an severe thunderstorms produce damaging winds overpass along the Kansas Turnpike. In the back- and/or tornadoes. Annually, many mobile homes ground of that video, it was graphically displayed sustain significant damage by tornadoes or straight- where an automobile was tossed and tumbled about line winds. Mobile homes may not have the structural by a F1 tornado, killing the person occupying that integrity or may not be tied down as recommended automobile. How many of us have seen video or pic- in many areas. They are constructed with lightweight tures of the Pampa tornado taken by A. Moeller and metal, or a combination of wood and steel. While the C. A. Doswell III where within the debris you can see authors provide statistics showing that 45% of tor- a flatbed truck airborne approximately 110 ft above nado fatalities involve mobile home residents, it the ground around the tornado? Do we want to rec- leaves questions about the effects of straight-line wind ommend that one can survive a tornado by taking related fatalities. cover in any vehicle? The safety recommendations listed in this paper The 3 May 1999 tornado that affected much of the are in accord with those given by the National central areas of Oklahoma and south-central Kansas Weather Service and supported by the American Red is an example of the controversy surrounding this is- Cross. Those in the media and emergency manage- sue. Media outlets were advising everyone, correctly, ment must be aware of the threat to people who that to survive this tornado as it approached the choose to take cover in vehicles or reside in mobile surburban areas of south Oklahoma City the best homes. We must be able to provide simply the best place to be was below ground. However, without base- options quickly. The choice of how to take cover is ments in much of the area, many retreated to their ultimately that of the general public, and by provid- cars trying to get out of harm's way. Some took shel- ing precise alternatives and directions, the media, ter underneath overpasses, or were caught in traffic forecasters, and emergency personnel can provide gridlock as people took cover underneath overpasses. peopl with the information needed to make those se- One example was the Shields Blvd. overpass in Moore, lections and respond accordingly. Oklahoma, where the gridlock trailed a mile and a half This manuscript presents an overly simplistic view north on the interstate as the tornado approached of the situation. The authors need to provide a full dis- from the southwest. Many were injured, and one per- cussion of all the safety issues involved. The majority son who died was found several days later buried un- of the people who choose to take cover from ap- derneath debris. It is documented that one sport util- proaching tornadoes in their vehicles are not as well ity vehicle was carried one-quarter of a mile. And, if trained in severe storm safety as are many storm spot- you perused the damage path, many vehicles were ters. It would be inappropriate to inform the general smashed and crushed after being thrown about in tor- public that vehicles are safe in tornadoes regardless nadic winds. of their assumed strength, and they must quickly, and While it is well debated that taking cover in a ve- without panic, weigh their options. Taking cover in a hicle, whether it is a sedan, van, or truck, has the prob- nearby building is clearly the best option compared ability of being safe, one must consider the other to underneath an overpass or in a nearby ditch. circumstances that may affect this decision; circum- stances all of us face at anytime when getting behind the wheel. I do agree with the authors that if a person REFERENCES is in an automobile and a tornado approaches, that Schmidlin, T. M., B. Hammer, P. King, Y. Ono, L. S. driving at right angles away from the tornado is the Miller, and G. Thumann, 2002: Unsafe at Any safest recommendation. Wearing seatbelts has proven (Wind) Speed? Testing the Stability of Motor Ve- to save lives when traveling in a vehicle, and the au- hicles in Severe Winds. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, thors' stress that seatbelts would also provide protec- 1821-1830.

1834 | BAflfr DECEMBER 2002 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 06:41 PM UTC In March 1997,1 moved to Des Moines to become Comments on "Unsafe at emergency management coordinator for Polk Any (Wind Speed)? Test- County. Polk County is the most populous county in the state and has a significant number of potential ing the Stability of Motor hazards, natural and man-made. Though I was new to the Midwest, it quickly became apparent to me that Vehicles in Severe Winds" tornado safety was a major concern. Polk County has had more than 40 documented tornadoes over the —ROBERT G. GOLDHAMMER, CEM past 50 years. Fortunately, only two people have died, Polk County Emergency Management although there were approximately 120 injuries from Des Moines, Iowa these events. In 1998 a mesocyclone with 146 mph winds significantly damaged the Des Moines area and resulted in a presidential disaster area declaration. he basic premise of the paper (Schmidlin et al. Even more recently, this summer, a severe thunder- 2002) is that, although an underground shelter storm with straight-line winds in excess of 70 mph Tor sturdy building offers the best protection from has led to consideration for yet another disaster area severe winds, a vehicle may be a relatively stable place declaration. ... safer than a mobile home or the outdoors. The au- Throughout the past five years, I have focused on thors propose that changes be made to public infor- increasing the availability of indoor and outdoor mation messages issued for tornado warnings and warning systems, attempting to enact a countywide other severe storm conditions to more fully inform ordinance requiring shelters in manufactured hous- residents of mobile homes on actions to take to pro- ing parks, and increasing public awareness of the need tect their safety. to mitigate against the effects of tornadoes. The ur- Before I begin to provide my comments on the in- gency and necessity of efforts in these areas was evi- formation contained in the paper, I believe it would be denced by the number of phone calls I received from beneficial to the readers to provide some professional area residents living in manufactured home parks and educational background that explains my interest without storm shelters in portions of the county not in commenting on the Schmidlin et al. paper. My in- covered by tornado warning sirens. We have more terest in severe weather phenomenon goes back more than doubled the number of tornado sirens (to 125) than 35 years. What began first as a hobby resulted in the past four years. This required more than in my majoring in meteorology at the New York State $500,000 from local governments. In addition citizens College of Agriculture at Cornell University in Ithaca, have purchased National Oceanic and Atmospheric New York, from 1969 through 1970. Although I cer- Administration (NOAA) WeatherAlert radios for tainly had the interest in the topic, it quickly became their homes and businesses. In 1999, Des Moines was apparent that I lacked some of the core curriculum, identified as a Project Impact City, which included a such as calculus and physics, which are fundamental $300,000 grant from the federal government for haz- to the science of meteorology. Looking back, I know ard mitigation and related projects. Of this, $50,000 it was a wise decision to change majors, but I always was used to purchase 1000 NOAA WeatherAlert Ra- regretted not being able to pursue my childhood dios for schools, health care facilities, churches, pub- dream. Finally, within the past two years, I was able lic buildings, and other locations of special concern. to complete a masters of teachers in geosciences pro- After several years of groundwork, the shelter or- gram offered by Mississippi State University, which dinance is almost a reality. The wording, which at- finally provided a degree related to meteorology. tempts to incorporate Federal Emergency Manage- Over the next 30 years, I became involved in emer- ment Agency guidelines on community shelters, has gency services. I spent 24 years as a paramedic in been approved by area fire departments, emergency Florida. During that time I responded to a few torna- medical service agencies, and, most importantly, the does. Fortunately, the tornadoes in Florida, prior to Iowa Manufactured Housing Association. This last the February 1998 outbreak in the Orlando, Florida, approval is perhaps the most noteworthy due to the area, were F0-F1. The one death I encountered was sometimes adversarial relationship between manufac- of a resident of a manufactured home. This reinforced tured home builders, manufactured home park own- the perception, perhaps now the reality, that occu- ers, and emergency managers. pants of manufactured homes are more likely to be A great deal of the information I use in my dis- killed due a severe wind event. cussions to support spending community funds for

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY DECEMBER 2002 BAflS* | 1835 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 06:41 PM UTC warning systems or implementing county ordinances It will take a long time to change people's behav- related to the hazard has come from scientific re- ior patterns in this area. In reality, it might even be search similar to that conducted by Schmidlin et al. said that it will take a generation to change the in- Documentation in previous papers, such as those by formation, because most of the public awareness edu- Schmidlin et al. (2000) and Hammer and Schmidlin cation is presented to school-age children. This, how- (2002), has helped dispel myths and spread reliable ever, should not be a reason to defer changes that are information about desired behavior in storms. supported by research. Flying debris along or to the Schmidlin et al. moves further along the path of side of the path of a tornado causes most injuries or providing scientific information to support prepared- deaths in tornadoes. Although being in a vehicle may ness and warning information. Although a cursory expose a person to flying debris, the same holds true review of the material might give the impression that for being in a manufactured home. Neither is de- the authors are promoting that vehicles are a safe ref- signed to prevent objects from penetrating the outer uge during a tornado, that is not the basic message. metal shell. Being in a vehicle while attempting to Rather, they are identifying that the use of a vehicle reach a sturdy shelter at least provides the possibil- by residents of a manufactured home in order to get ity of some mobility to drive away from the tornado. to a sturdy building for shelter is a practical prepared- Schmidlin et al. comment that it would be hard to ness plan and may likely increase their level of safety. predict a driver's reactions as they seek shelter. Be- In my paramedic training we were taught that there cause of a similar concern, emergency preparedness are actually three separate collisions that take place information has generally avoided specific instruction in a car crash. The first collision occurs when the ve- related to preferred driving direction in relation to the hicle strikes another vehicle or some fixed object. The tornado's forward movement. In reality, from a dis- second collision occurs when the occupant of the ve- tance it is difficult to determine what direction the hicle strikes some part of the interior of the vehicle. tornado may be traveling until it gets very close; how- The third, and perhaps most deadly collision, occurs ever, video footage taken by storm chasers and tele- when the victim's internal organs strike his/her skel- vision crews shows that some, but unfortunately not eton. In my opinion, this would apply to an occupant all, people will stop their vehicle if driving forward of a vehicle that is rolled by a tornado as well as to seems to be putting them closer to the tornado. the occupants of a manufactured home, which can Hopefully, future research will provide more infor- also be moved by a tornado. Schmidlin et al. show mation on tornadic circulation and provide informa- that the wind speeds that are likely to upset a manu- tion that can be used by drivers attempting to reach factured home are less than the wind speeds required safety. to upset a vehicle. The assertion is that the vehicle When I visit schools or businesses to identify ref- could, and perhaps should, be used by occupants of uge locations or conduct training classes, I tell people manufactured homes to reach shelter in a sturdy that they should try to prepare as best they can to deal building. with tornadoes. Preparedness increases survival. It Educators advise that the same information must does not, however, ensure that people will escape the be repeated multiple times in order to achieve a fury of the storm. In 1998, two people in western Iowa change in behavior. This requirement is a problem followed the training they had been provided and when people do not believe the information is im- abandoned their vehicle to seek shelter in a ditch. portant to them or when too much time lapses be- They were killed when a piece of farm machinery tween repetitions. This would certainly be true when picked up from a barn hit directly by the tornado was trying to educate people about tornado safety. dropped on them. We will never be able to be com- Although the National Weather Service and emer- pletely safe from the effects of tornadoes, but I do feel gency management professionals would like to main- it is my responsibility as an emergency manger to tain consistency and stability in public awareness in- gather the most up-to-date information and incorpo- formation, we cannot ignore the fact that information rate it into awareness presentations to maximize the does change as research supports new ideas. For ex- possibility of people escaping from injury. I have in ample, people were told for more than 20 years to the past and will in the future, thanks to the informa- seek shelter under an overpass if they were caught out tion in this paper, continue to impress upon the resi- on a stretch of open highway. Only since the 5 May dents of manufactured homes the importance of hav- 1998 Oklahoma City tornado outbreak has this ad- ing a way to receive the warning information in a vice been changed due to scientific research based on timely manner and a plan to go to a refuge rather than that event. remaining in their residence. I agree with the premise

1836 | BAflfr DECEMBER 2002 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 06:41 PM UTC of the paper that vehicles are not a place to seek ref- nado: Reasons and relative injury rates. Wea. Fore- uge from a tornado, but in the absence of a shelter at casting, 17, 577-581. the manufactured housing park, use of vehicles may Schmidlin, T. W., B. O. Hammer, Y. Ono, and P. King, be an effective and necessary component of a pre- 2000: Tornado shelter-seeking behavior and shelter paredness plan developed to get to a safer location to options among mobile home residents. 20th Conf. survive the tornado. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 301-302. , , P. King, Y. Ono, L. S. Miller, and G. REFERENCES Thumann, 2002: Unsafe at Any (Wind) Speed? Test- Hammer, B., and T. W. Schmidlin, 2002: Response to ing the Stability of Motor Vehicles in Severe Winds. warnings during the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City tor- Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1821-1830.

tionary automobile rather than lie down in a ditch or Reply culvert." This is a departure from current NWS and Red Cross recommendations and implies that motor- —T. W. SCHMIDLIN, B. HAMMER, AND Y. ONO, ists on the open highway without nearby shelter Kent State University should also stay in their stationary vehicles rather than Kent, Ohio to lie down outside in a ditch or depression during a tornado warning. However, Golden would not agree —P. S. KING Boyce Thompson Institute that mobile home residents without permanent shel- Ithaca, New York ter should drive to a sturdy shelter. McCarthy agrees "that if a person is in an automo- —L. S. MILLER AND G. THUMANN bile and a tornado approaches, that driving at right Wichita State University angles away from the tornado is the recommendation. Wichita, Kansas Wearing seat belts has proven to save lives when trav- eling in a vehicle, and the authors' stress that seat belts would also provide protection when trying to be safe e appreciate the time spent and thoughtful during a tornado." This again is a departure from comments made by Golden, McCarthy, NWS and Red Cross recommendations. However, Wand Goldhammer on our manuscript. We are McCarthy has reservations about "taking cover" in grateful for their comments in support of our conclu- any vehicle due to risks of the vehicle being lofted or sions and recommendations and we take their criti- struck by flying debris. cisms as part of a healthy scientific debate. The three We should clarify that our focus is not on the ac- comments agree that mobile homes (or manufactured tion a person should take when the tornado is visibly homes) are dangerous in tornadoes and other severe bearing down on them (although our results may be winds and mobile homes should be abandoned for relevant to that situation). Our focus, like that of NWS better shelter. and Red Cross preparedness brochures, is on the rec- Goldhammer agrees that, "use of vehicles may be an ommended actions to take when a tornado warning effective and necessary component of a preparedness is issued. Relatively few people in the United States see plan . . for mobile home residents without shelter. a tornado approaching each year, while millions an- This is also in agreement with the recent American nually come under a tornado warning. Meteorological Society policy statement on tornado We make it clear in our last paragraph that it is not safety (AMS 2000) that reads, "If there is no shelter, good to be in a motor vehicle during severe winds. and there is enough warning lead time, it might be Our attention, however, is on the mobile home resi- best to evacuate (a mobile home) in a vehicle to avoid dents who do not have sturdy shelter to which they an approaching tornado or to reach a sturdy shelter." can run when a tornado warning is issued. Their Golden agrees that vehicles may be safer than be- choices are to 1) stay in the mobile home, 2) follow ing outdoors and states, "that people, as a last resort NWS and Red Cross recommendations and go out- and if no other permanent safe haven is available side and lie in a ditch or depression while the tornado nearby, should evacuate their mobile home for a sta- warning is in effect, or 3) get into their stationary ve-

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY DECEMBER 2002 BAflS* | 1837 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 06:41 PM UTC hide or use the vehicle to drive to a sturdy building. tunnel. It is common practice for motor vehicles, air- We seek a scientific basis for recommending among planes, buildings, towers, and other large objects to those three options so that the mobile home resident be tested as scale models in wind tunnels. We would moves to the location of least risk. This is the goal of welcome the research results, referred to by Golden, all storm preparedness guidelines. from the automobile industry and the wind engineer- In countering our observation that the percentage ing community on the wind speed required to upset of tornado-related deaths that occurred in vehicles has vehicles. fallen from 17% in the 1970s to 10% in the 1990s, Golden refers to the 1989 Huntsville tornado as a Golden points out that 22 of 51 fatalities (43%) from recent instance "where the largest number of tornado- high winds and thunderstorm-related winds (not tor- related deaths were people trapped in their automo- nadoes) during the year 2000 were in vehicles. That biles during rush-hour traffic." A publication of the is correct, but 16 of those 22 deaths were from trees Huntsville Times (1990) later showed that among the falling on vehicles. This says little about the stability 13 deaths said to be in vehicles, in at least five cases it of vehicles in high winds, the focus of our research, was questionable whether the person was actually in and does not obviate the fact that tornado-related the vehicle when the tornado struck. One victim was deaths in vehicles have fallen sharply in the last 30 found against a tree and it was not known if he was years. in the car or running for shelter, another was found Golden and McCarthy both note that violent (F4- "outside" and it was only "suspected" that she had F5) tornadoes can loft and toss vehicles and Golden been in an auto, another was found under her car in provides photos as documentation. We agree, and in a field, another was found in a "hollowed landscape" fact have already shown (Hammer and Schmidlin outside of his car, and another was found some dis- 2001) that about one-half of vehicle-occupant deaths tance from the vehicle. Thus, for 38% of the deaths during tornadoes occur when the vehicle is over- said to be "vehicle related" in the Huntsville tornado, turned, tossed, or thrown from the roadway and 60% the victim was found outside and may have actually of vehicle-occupant deaths in tornadoes occur dur- exited the vehicle, sought shelter in a ditch or else- ing F4 or F5 tornadoes. Our manuscript states, "the where, and was killed outdoors. In any case, the rela- range of winds required for upset of popular vehicle tive risk of death while being in a vehicle during the styles, converted to wind speeds at 10-m height, is es- Huntsville tornado cannot be compared to risks in timated at 75-120 m s-1, or generally bracketing F3 other locations, such as outdoors or in mobile homes, and F4 wind speeds" and supports Golden's and unless the number of people exposed to the tornado McCarthy's contention that F4 and F5 tornadoes can was known for each location and death rates were toss vehicles. Of course, we do not claim that vehicles established. offer protection from the winds of rare, violent tor- McCarthy states that our results should be viewed nadoes. We state more generally "that a person en- cautiously because they "can be interpreted as saying counters less risk of death while belted into a station- one is totally safe in taking cover in vehicles" during ary vehicle than while in a mobile home during severe tornadoes and severe winds. We do not intend that winds." interpretation and do not believe our writing conveys Golden is concerned about the 3-10-day time lag that message. Our abstract states "your vehicle may between the occurrence of tornadoes and our field be a relatively stable place and may be safer than a observations on vehicles because "some of the impor- mobile home or the outdoors." Our final section, tant evidence on automobile safety may have been "When is a car safe?" states, "it is likely that a person lost." That was a concern for us, also. We did not rely encounters less risk of death while belted into a sta- simply upon our field observations of damage to tionary vehicle than in a mobile home during severe houses and to vehicles. We asked homeowners about winds" (italic text as in original article). In the final changes in the house since the tornado struck and paragraph, our last three sentences state, about vehicles that were no longer at the site (being driven or in repair, etc.). No data were collected with- A motor vehicle is not a good place to be during out speaking to someone who had firsthand knowl- severe winds and injury to occupants may result. edge of the house and vehicles at each site. Motorists should obviously avoid situations where severe winds will be encountered and, whenever pos- Golden asks for more wind tunnel testing, this time sible, should seek shelter underground, in a using full-scale vehicles rather than 1/6-scale models. saferoom, or in a sturdy building when threatened A desire for further testing does not diminish the va- by a tornado. However, the stability and superior lidity of our test results on scale models in the wind

1838 | BAflfr DECEMBER 2002 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 06:41 PM UTC safety of being in a vehicle in severe winds, relative curred in the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City tornadoes, to occupying a mobile home or being outdoors, Brown et al. (2002) reported that their "data did not should be considered along with other research on support previous reports of an increased risk of death relative injury rates to make the best recommenda- in motor vehicles" despite the fact that the tornado tions to the public. hit a major metropolitan area at about 1900 local time and 25% of the residents of homes that received F4 We believe this is a clear, unambiguous, and fair or F5 damage left their homes in motor vehicles to statement and a valid conclusion that is supported by seek shelter or to get out of the path of the tornado research. (Hammer and Schmidlin 2002). McCarthy, like Golden, mentions several anec- We understand that changing storm safety recom- dotes about vehicles that were tossed by tornadoes. He mendations is a tenuous and difficult process. We reminds us of the video from the Kansas Turnpike on pointed out several years ago (Schmidlin and King 26 April 1991 showing a vehicle being lifted and spun 1996) that epidemiologists and other scientists had by the tornado. McCarthy states this was an F1 tor- questioned the NWS and Red Cross recommendation nado and the vehicle occupant was killed. This tor- to lie down outside in a ditch rather than stay in a car nado was ranked F2 and the vehicle occupant was not during high winds and several had found the recom- killed (Grazulis 1993, p. 1314; National Weather Ser- mendation was not based on supporting research. vice 1991, p. 4). In any case, this "science by anecdote," Changing a long-held safety recommendation that has using a single exceptional case to make broad gener- become a "comfortable concept" takes time and ef- alizations, is ineffective (as in citing a case of a per- fort. In this case, research (ours and others) supports son killed by a tornado while taking shelter in an in- a change in the safety recommendation that people terior room of a sturdy house to make the general in mobile homes, without nearby sturdy shelter, conclusion that this is dangerous action and should should go outdoors and lie in a ditch or depression be avoided). during a tornado warning. This "comfortable con- McCarthy also mentions the 8 June 1995 Pampa, cept" was originally written without the benefit of Texas, tornado and video showing vehicles spinning research and the origin of the concept is apparently far above the ground. This was an F4 tornado that unknown. Research now supports the fact that mo- reached its maximum intensity near the industrial bile home residents face less risk of injury or death park where the vehicles were lofted (additional infor- from severe winds inside their vehicle than in a mo- mation available online at www.cimms.ou.edu/ bile home and should be encouraged to use their ve- ~doswell/chasesums/tornadoes_95.html). As pointed hicle to reach sturdy shelter during a tornado warn- out above, our field work and wind tunnel results sup- ing if conditions allow. port the observations that an F4 tornado will lift ve- hicles. We do not suggest that a vehicle is stable or will protect a person during an F4 tornado. REFERENCES McCarthy describes vehicles thrown about in an AMS, 2000: Policy statement: Tornado preparedness F5 tornado, 3 May 1999 in Oklahoma City. McCarthy and safety. Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 1061-1065. specifically mentions the traffic jam that developed on Brown, S., P. Archer, E. Kruger, and S. Mallonee, 2002: 1-35 at the Shields Boulevard overpass and he states Tornado-related deaths and injuries due to the 3 that many were injured and one person died. It should May 1999 tornadoes. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 343-353. be clarified that the person who died got out of her Grazulis, T. P., 1993: Significant tornadoes 1680-1991. vehicle and sought shelter under the overpass. Inter- Environmental Films, 1326 pp. [Available from The state highways generally do not have ditches suitable Tornado Project of Environmental Films, P.O. Box for "shelter" so motorists who followed NWS and Red 302, St. Johnsbury, VT 05819.] Cross recommendations to leave their automobiles Hammer, B., and T. W. Schmidlin, 2001: Vehicle-occu- during the tornado warning found the overpass was pant deaths caused by tornadoes in the United States, the only structure available. Eleven of the 12 people 1900-1998. Environ. Haz., 2, 105-118. who exited their vehicles to seek shelter outside re- , and , 2002: Response to warnings during the ceived "horrific injuries" (Miller et al. 1999), yet most 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City tornado: Reasons and of the 150 or so parked vehicles did not become air- relative injury rates. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 577-581. borne and there were no fatalities to the hundreds of Huntsville Times, 1990: Huntsville tornado, November people who remained inside their vehicles in this F4 15,1989,4:37 P.M., a diary of destruction. C. F. Boone wind. In a study of the injuries and deaths that oc- Publishing, 64 pp.

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY DECEMBER 2002 BAflS* | 101 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/09/21 06:41 PM UTC Miller, D. J., C. A. Doswell III, H. E. Brooks, G. J. Stumpf, National Weather Service, 1991: Wichita/Andover, and E. Rasmussen, 1999: Highway overpasses as tor- Kansas, tornado April 26, 1991. Natural Disaster nado shelters: Fallout from the 3 May 1999 Okla- Survey Rep., NOAA/National Weather Service, Sil- homa/Kansas violent tornado outbreak. Presentation ver Spring, MD, 62 pp. at the 1999 Annual Meeting of the National Weather Schmidlin, T. W., and P. S. King, 1996: Cars and torna- Association, Biloxi, MS. [Available online at does: Where is the research? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/papers/overpass.html.] 77, 963-964.

H IMETE©IR@L©©¥ ©F THIS LJU ^©yTHEI^M HEHI5PHERI H ou m on —J o

< A comprehensive monograph of the meteorology of the Southern u oI— Hemisphere was originally published by the American Meteorological Society in 1972. That monograph was, of necessity, preliminary in nature o U because the available time series of observational data was short. In the Q O quarter century that has passed since the first monograph, much has —I happened to warrant an updated edition: new observational techniques N based on satellites, anchored and drifting buoys, and more ground-based > O stations have expanded the observational network to cover the whole aC hemisphere. The time is right, therefore, for a fresh look at the circulation O features of the Southern Hemisphere, both for the atmosphere and oceans. LU H Edited by David J. Karoly and Dayton G. Vincent O UJ oZ z < N J? U od h- -a •x

» f/?e4 e^5crs and students, by sen&i ""'nc-m Meteorological Society.ot

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This volume is a collection of 13 review papers by a Severe Convective Storms distinguished group of Charles A. Doswell III, Editor scientists, providing a summary of the current scientific understanding of convective storms and the weather they produce, as well as showing how that understanding works in forecasting practice. The volume is loaded with outstanding illustrations, and is destined to become one of the most widely referred-to books on convection and convective American Meteorological Society processes.

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