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China's Economic Transformation: Impacts on Asia and the Pacific

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China’s economic transformation: Impacts on Asia and the Pacific The shaded areas of the map indicate ESCAP members and associate members.* The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) serves as the United Nations’ regional hub promoting cooperation among countries to achieve inclusive and sustainable development. The largest regional intergovernmental platform with 53 member States and 9 associate members, ESCAP has emerged as a strong regional think-tank offering countries sound analytical products that shed insight into the evolving economic, social and environmental dynamics of the region. The Commission’s strategic focus is to deliver on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which it does by reinforcing and deepening regional cooperation and integration to advance connectivity, financial cooperation and market integration. ESCAP’s research and analysis coupled with its policy advisory services, capacity building and technical assistance to governments aims to support countries’ sustainable and inclusive development ambitions. *The designations employed and the presentation of material on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. CHINA’S ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION: IMPACTS ON ASIA AND THE PACIFIC i China’s economic transformation: Impacts on Asia and the Pacific ii CHINA’S ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION: IMPACTS ON ASIA AND THE PACIFIC United Nations publication Copyright © United Nations 2019 All rights reserved Printed in Bangkok ST/ESCAP/2836 Cover photo credits: Shutterstock/Hung Chung Chih This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided that the source is acknowledged. The ESCAP Publications Office would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use may be made of this publication for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission. Applications for such permission, with a statement of the purpose and extent of reproduction, should be addressed to the Secretary of the Publications Board, United Nations, New York. CHINA’S ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION: IMPACTS ON ASIA AND THE PACIFIC iii Foreword Four decades ago, late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping opened the curtains on China’s economy for its Reform and Opening-up (gaige kaifang) at the Third Plenum of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. Since then, China has recorded economic development at an unprecedented speed, with a profound transition from an agriculture-driven economy to an export-oriented industrial powerhouse. China’s economic take-off coincides with the development of global value chains (GVCs). The country’s participation in GVCs, on the one hand, supported growing productivity, increased sophistication and diversification of exports; and on the other hand, it enhanced globalization, especially the integration of the Asia-Pacific region. China is now the engine to the world economy and the largest economy in Asia and the Pacific. However, rising trade disputes, weaker external demand, decreasing productivity, diminishing demographic dividends, rising inequalities, and surging environmental pressures are forcing the country to deepen the ongoing economic rebalancing reforms. These reforms not only pose challenges to the region’s economic prospects but also offer potential opportunities if the Asia-Pacific economies respond with timely and appropriate policy measures. This report analyses such issues and discusses China’s economic outlook up to 2030 if the Government focuses on different economic, social and environmental priorities. It offers an assessment of how China’s economic transformation spills over to the region through trade, financial, investment, migration and other channels. The research findings suggest that China’s economy will inevitably slow down as it matures. However, different policy pathways could result in considerably different outcomes in terms of productivity growth, social inclusiveness and environmental sustainability for China and the Asia-Pacific region in the medium term. The report recommends a holistic structural transformation path, which would benefit China as well as bring positive spillover effects to boost economic growth, trade and welfare in the Asia-Pacific region. iv CHINA’S ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION: IMPACTS ON ASIA AND THE PACIFIC The Asia-Pacific region is diverse and home to some of the most vibrant economies in the world. The report brings in the regional context and provides tailored policy recommendations for different economies, which are worth exploring. It is hoped that the analysis and findings contained in this publication will provide Member States and other stakeholders with insights to pursue structural transformation and to maintain the economic resilience of the region. Hongjoo Hahm Deputy Executive Secretary United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific CHINA’S ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION: IMPACTS ON ASIA AND THE PACIFIC v Acknowledgements Under the overall direction and guidance of Hongjoo Hahm, Deputy Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), the study was coordinated and led by Hamza Ali Malik, Director, Macroeconomic Policy and Financing for Development Division (MPFD) of ESCAP. The core research team included Zhenqian Huang, Daniel Jeongdae Lee, and Kiatkanid Pongpanich of MPFD. Laura Altinger, Regional Advisor on Climate Change and formerly in MPFD, contributed as well at the initial stage of the study. ESCAP staff who gave useful inputs and feedback include: Sudip Ranjan Basu, Andrzej Bolesta, Achara Jantarasaengaram, Jose Antonio Pedrosa-Garcia, Oliver Paddison, Sweta Saxena, Vatcharin Sirimaneetham, Yusuke Tateno (MPFD), Witada Anukoonwattaka, Marta Perez Cuso, Alexey Kravchenko, Mia Mikic, Tengfei Wang (Trade, Investment and Innovation Division), Anis Zaman, Fabian Kreuzer (Energy Division) and Arun Jacob (Environment and Development Division). Former ESCAP colleagues Clovis Freire Junior of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and Steve Loris Gui-Diby of the World Bank also provided helpful advice. Professor Shuanglin Lin, Peking University and Ganeshan Wignaraja, Chair of Global Economy Programme, Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute, Sri Lanka and other participants at the Expert Group Meeting on Macroeconomic Prospects and Policy Challenges in Asia and the Pacific on 4 December 2017, Bangkok, commented on the initial findings and shared valuable insights. Chawarin Klongdee of MPFD provided research assistance. Chulathep Fungsa and Noormah Rizwan provided data support as interns in MPFD. The manuscript was edited by Mary Ann Perkins. The layout and printing were done by Erawan Printing Ltd. Financial support from the Government of the People’s Republic of China is gratefully acknowledged. vi CHINA’S ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION: IMPACTS ON ASIA AND THE PACIFIC Background papers Chapter 1: The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) simulations and the initial drafting were carried out by Jianwu He, Researcher, Development Research Center of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China. Chapter 2: The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) analysis was provided by Professor Selim Raihan, University of Dhaka. Introduction, discussion on policy considerations (Chapter 4) and conclusion benefited substantially from Douglas Brooks, Non-resident Senior Fellow at Australian Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Study Centre. CHINA’S ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION: IMPACTS ON ASIA AND THE PACIFIC vii Abbreviations and acronyms ALL Comprehensive scenario (CGE model) APTA Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BAU Baseline scenario (CGE model) BCIM Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar economic corridor of BRI BRI Belt and Road Initiative CAWA China-Central Asia-West Asia economic corridor of BRI CESconstant elasticity of substitution CGE computable general equilibrium CMR China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor of BRI CP China-Pakistan economic corridor of BRI DRC Development Research Center of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China DRCCGE CGE model created by DRC ESCAP Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific FDI foreign direct investment FTA free trade agreement G7 Group of Seven GDP gross domestic product GTAP Global Trade Analysis Project ICG Inclusive growth scenario (CGE model) ICP China-Indochina Peninsular economic corridor of BRI ICT information and communications technology IMF International Monetary Fund ING Innovative growth scenario (CGE model) NCA North and Central Asia plus Mongolia - subregion (CGE model) NELB New Eurasian Land Bridge economic corridor of BRI OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PIC Pacific island countries - subregion (CGE model) R&D research and development RCEP Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership RMB renminbi (Chinese yuan) SDG Sustainable Development Goal SEA South-East Asia subregion (CGE model) SMEs small and medium-sized enterprises SSG Sustainable growth scenario (CGE model) SSWA South Asia excluding India subregion (CGE model) TFP total factor productivity WTO World Trade Organization viii CHINA’S ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION:
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