CHASING UTOPIA: HOW THE ARAB SPRING GAVE US TODAY’S ISLAMIC STATE BY DIANA INGEBORG BOLSINGER A thesis submitted to the Graduate School in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree MASTER OF ARTS Major Subject: GOVERNMENT NEW MEXICO STATE UNIVERSITY LAS CRUCES, NEW MEXICO MAY 2016 “Chasing Utopia: How the Arab Spring Gave Us Today’s Islamic State,” a thesis prepared by Diana Ingeborg Bolsinger in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Master of Arts, has been approved and accepted by the following: Loui Reyes Dean of the Graduate School Neal M. Rosendorf Chair of the Examining Committee Date Committee in charge: Dr. Neal M. Rosendorf, Chair Dr. Yosef Lapid Professor Kim Seckler Dr. David Keys ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Like most students, I leave my studies deeply in debt. Thankfully, my obligation is not to a bank or institution, but to the many generous scholars who shared their knowledge, judgment, and insights. Dr. Neal M. Rosendorf served as committee chair, advisor, and mentor. My time at NMSU would have been much the poorer without his humor, generosity, and counsel. This thesis grew out of coursework and independent study with Dr. Yosef Lapid. I gained immensely from Dr. Lapid’s expertise and remain deeply grateful for his support. Dr. Jiaqi Liang, too, provided invaluable mentoring and guidance. Dr. Neal Harvey took a chance on a graduate student and allowed me to design and teach my own class on terrorism. I hope the results repaid his trust. Professor Kim Seckler and Dr. David Keys’ incisive questions helped clarify my analysis and provided future directions for research. Jason McWhorter reviewed early drafts of my arguments, providing key sources and insights. Any remaining gaps or errors are, of course, my own responsibility. Finally, neither this thesis nor my graduate studies would be possible without the boundless support of my husband Dan. There are no words to express my gratitude. iii VITA November 23, 1964 Born in Arlington, VA 1981 Graduated from Encinel High School Alameda, California 1985 Bachelor of Arts in International Studies, Reed College, Portland, Oregon 1990 Masters of Art in International Relations, George Washington University, Washington, District of Columbia 2002 Masters of Education, Marymount University, Arlington Virginia Field of Study Major Field: Government iii ABSTRACT CHASING UTOPIA: HOW THE ARAB SPRING GAVE US TODAY’S ISLAMIC STATE BY DIANA INGEBORG BOLSINGER NEW MEXICO STATE UNIVERSITY LAS CRUCES, NEW MEXICO MAY 2016 This thesis acknowledges existing scholarship that portrays the Islamic State as the product of conditions in Iraq following the 2003 U.S. invasion but argues the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011 transformed the Iraq-based group into a larger movement. The revolts weakened governments, allowing the Islamic State and other jihadi groups to seize territories. Syrian regime brutality against civilians strengthened jihadi claims Islam was in danger. Jihadis released from prisons during and after the uprisings openly recruited and organized new factions, many of which later switched their allegiance to the Islamic State. Above all, counterrevolution and violence following the initially peaceful movements of 2011 expanded the pool of alienated youth susceptible to radicalization. The Islamic State’s success in seizing these openings suggests the merits of applying a path-dependent approach to analyzing the spread of terrorism. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES…....... ……………………………………………………………............. ix INTRODUCTION………........……………………………………......................... 1 Setting the Stage: The Arab Spring……………………………......................... 4 Structure of the Argument…………………………………………………....... 9 Scope, Definitions and Terminology………………………………………….. 14 CHAPTER 1: POLITICAL ISLAM AND THE RISE OF THE ISLAMIC STATE………………………………………………….……. 17 Political Islam………………………………………………………………….. 18 Islamic Resistance……………………………………………………………... 22 Rise of the Muslim Brotherhood……………………………………………..... 25 The Evolution of Modern Jihad………………………………………………... 33 Building the Islamic State in Iraq……………………………………………… 39 The Missing Ingredient………………………………………………………... 44 Putting Together The Pieces…………………………………………………... 53 CHAPTER 2: THE SEARCH FOR LEGITIMACY……………………………… 56 Independence and Instability…………………………………………………... 59 Republican Monarchs…………………………………………………………. 61 It’s A Family Affair…………………………………………………………… 66 Private Profits, Public Costs…………………………………………………... 68 A New Battleground?......................................................................................... 75 v Conclusion…………………………………………………………………….. 81 CHAPTER 3: AFTER TODAY NO MORE FEAR: THE ARAB UPRISINGS OF 2011……………………………………………………………………….. 84 “A Volcano Waiting to Explode”……………………………………………... 85 Flash Mobs and Strange Bedfellows…………………………………………... 87 Egypt: From Tahrir to the Sinai……………………………………………….. 93 The Islamists…………………………………………………………………... 95 The Military Steps In: Tunisia and Egypt……………………………………... 99 Divided Nations, Divided Militaries………………………………………….. 103 Libya and Syria: A Swift Turn to Violence…………………………………... 106 ‘Standing Up:’ The Emotions of Rebellion…………………………………... 109 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………. 113 CHAPTER 4: AL-QA’IDA EXPLOITS THE NEW OPENINGS……………….. 115 Egypt………………………………………………………………………….. 122 Tunisia………………………………………………………………………… 127 Syria…………………………………………………………………………... 130 Libya………………………………………………………………………….. 132 Awash in Weapons…………………………………………………………… 133 Safe Havens and Jihadi Emirates……………………………………………... 135 Hearts, Minds, and Shari’a: Yemen and Syria………………………………... 138 Libya’s ‘Jihadi Factory’………………………………………………………. 142 Crossroads of Africa and the Levant: The Sinai Peninsula……………...….... 146 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………. 148 vi CHAPTER 5: COUNTERREVOLUTION AND THE ISLAMIC STATE……… 150 Opening the Door to Jihad……………………………………………………. 150 The “Five Star Jihad” …………..…………………………………………….. 158 Finding a Reason to Fight…………………………………………………….. 161 Becoming A Member…………………………………………………………. 173 Bringing the Islamic State Home……………………………………....……… 175 Conclusion……………………………………………………………………. 180 CONCLUSION…………………………………………………………………… 183 REFERENCES…………………………………………………………………… 187 vii LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1: COMPARISON OF FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN SYRIA, 2011 - 2015 AND IRAQ, 2003 - 2007……………………………… 161 TABLE 2: TERROR ATTACKS IN NORTH AFRICA, 1995 – 2015………………………………………………………….. 180 viii Introduction The time has come for those generations that were drowning in oceans of disgrace, being nursed on the milk of humiliation, and being ruled by the vilest of all people, after their long slumber in the darkness of neglect—The time has come for them to rise. –Muhammad al-‘Adnani, Announcement of the Caliphate, July 2014 Accounts of the Islamic State focus on the group’s metamorphosis from an al- Qa’ida allied faction in Iraq fighting U.S. and coalition troops in Iraq. This narrative emphasizes the rise of the Islamic State in the chaos following the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq. Scholars trace the legacy of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, founder of the group that later became the Islamic State, in shaping the group’s nihilistic ideology, as well as its brutal use of violence against Shi’a, Christian, and other non- Sunni populations. According to this narrative, the Islamic State in Iraq was reenergized in 2011 by the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, followed by attempts by then-Prime Minister Nouri al-Malaki to exclude Iraq’s Sunni community from sharing power. The Islamic State in Iraq then drew renewed support from many of the same Sunni tribes and former Ba’athists that had turned against it turning the 2006 “Sunni Awakening.” The Islamic State in Iraq then extended its organization into the Syrian civil war in August 2011. Group leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi sent a group of Syrian-born followers to establish a presence there, named Jabhat al-Nusra l’Ahl as-Sham (“The Support Front for the People of the Levant”). Jabhat al-Nusra quickly gained ground in the Syrian civil war, bolstered by foreign volunteers and funding, as well as its 1 leaders’ superior fighting and organizational skills. Jabha al-Nusra rejected al- Baghdadi’s attempt in 2013 to reassert control over its activities, spurring a formal break with the Islamic State in Iraq. When al-Qa’ida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri supported al-Nusra against al-Baghdadi, al-Baghdadi declared independence from al- Qa’ida leadership in 2013. Al-Baghdadi asserted instead that his group was the true leader of the jihadi movement and core of what would eventually become a global Muslim caliphate. The revived Islamic State in Iraq began a series of military victories in 2014, capturing Fallujah in January and then seizing Mosul in June from much larger government forces. The group then seized territory on both sides of the Syrian-Iraqi border, proclaiming the end to Western-imposed borders separating Muslims and declaring the establishment of the Islamic State. Al-Baghdadi claimed to be the true caliph, or leader of Islam, demanding obedience from Muslims worldwide. In the months and years that followed, this putative Islamic State inspired an unprecedented influx of foreign fighters and young “jihadi brides” from around the world. The Islamic State recruited these volunteers through sophisticated online propaganda, which included both graphic videos of beheadings and other executions as well as utopian portrayals of life under its rule. The group built alliances with other jihadi groups around the world, who declared allegiance to al-Baghdadi in return