Bob Dole Continues to Hold Commanding Lead As Republican Presidential Front-Runner

The Barris Poll

THE HARRIS POLL 1995 #47 For Release: Monday, July 24, 1995

BOB DOLE CONTINUES TO HOLD COMMANDING LEAD AS REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL FRONT-RUNNER

by Humphrey Taylor

Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole of Kansas continues to hold a huge lead over all other candidates for the Republican nomination for next year's presidential election. Fully 46% of Republicans and 30% of lndependents pick him as their first choice. The only other possible candidate who comes remotely close is the non-candidate General Colin Powell, who is the top choice of 17% of Republicans and 23% of Independents. Senator Phil Gramm is a weak third (10% of Republicans and 7% Independents). No other candidate is picked by more than 5% of Republicans.

These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 595 Republicans and lndependents surveyed between July 13 and 16.

Of course, Colin Powell is not a candidate. When those who prefer him are asked for their second choice, and their votes are reassigned, almost half (47%) of Republicans and lndependents pick Senator Dole and none of the candidates picks up sl~bstantialsupport. Among Republicans and lndependents combined, Bob Dole is followed by Senator Phil Gramm (9%),Pat Buchanan and Governor Pete Wilson (both at 5%), Senator Arlen Specter (3%) and former Tennessee governor Lamar Alexander.

These are not, and must not be interpreted as forecasts. Much can, and surely will happen between now and next year's Republican Convention. But with every month that goes by, the failure of other potential candidates to pick up any momentum in the polls strengthens the odds on a Dole candidacy.

Humphrey Taylor is the Chairman and CEO of Louis Harris and Associates, lnc.

Louis Harris & Associates 11 1 Fifth Avenue NYC (212) 539-9697 TABLE 1

FAMILIARITY WITH NINE POSSIBLE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES FOR PRESIDENT

Base: Republican or Independent

"I'm going to read you some names of potential Republican presidential candidates. Are you familiar with (READ LIST), or not?"

FAMILIARITY April July Yo Yo

Bob Dole Pat Buchanan Colin Powell Pat Robertson Phil Gramm Pete Wilson Arlen Specter Robert Dornan Dick Lugar Lamar Alexander TABLE 2

FIRST CHOICE FOR REPUBLIC NOMINEE (WITH COLIN POWELL INCLUDED)

Base: Republicans and Independents

"Who's your first choice for the Republican presidential nomination in 19967"

PARTY I.D.

April July Republican Independent % % % %

Bob Dole Colin Powell Phil Gramm Pete Wilson Pat Robertson Pat Buchanan Lamar Alexander L Dick Lugar Robert Dornan Arlen Specter Not sure TABLE 3

FIRST CHOICE FOR REPUBLICAN NOMINEE FOR PRESIDENT (WITH COLIN POWELL EXCLUDED)

Base: Republicans and Independents

REPUBLICANS AND INDEPENDENTS April July % %

Bob Dole Phil Gramm Pat Buchanan Pete Wilson Arlen Specter Pat Robertson Lamar Alexander Dick Lugar Robert Dornan Not sure METHODOLOGY

This Harris Poll was conducted by telephone within the United States between July 13 and 16, among a nationwide cross section of 1,004 adults. Figures for age, sex, race, education and number of adults in the household were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is difficult or impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

Contact Louis Harris and Associates, Inc., Information Services, 111 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10003, (212) 539-9600, for complete demographic details for the questions in this release.