Global Change in the I Geosphere-Biosphere Initial Priorities for an IGBP 111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 NF00454 Global Change in the Geosphere-Biosphere Initial Priorities for an IGOP U.S. Committee for an International Geosphere-Biosphere Program Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1986 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad communjty of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. The Council operates in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy under the authority of its congressional charter of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation. The Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in the conduct of their services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. It is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences. This study was supported by the following agencies: the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, under contracts NASW 3985 and NASW 4056; the Department of the Interior, under Purchase Order 42000-0666; the Department of Energy, under Grant DE-FG05-84ER-602777; and the Department of the Navy under Grant N00014-84-0196. Copies available from: The Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 U.S. Committee for an International Geosphere-Biosphere Program John A. Eddy, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Cha£rman D. James Baker, Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc. Wallace S. Broecker, Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory, Columbia University Charles Drake, Dartmouth College Peter Eagleson, Massachusetts Institute of Technology William S. Fyfe, University of Western Ontario W.Lawrence Gates, Oregon State University John Imbrie, Brown University Robert Loomis, University of California, Davis James J. McCarthy, Harvard University Michael B. McElroy, Harvard University Mark F. Meier, U.S. Geological Survey Harold Mooney, Stanford University Andrew Nagy, University of Michigan Ronald Prinn, Massachusetts Institute of Technology S. Ichtiaque Rasool, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology Roger Revelle, University of California, San Diego Norman J. Rosenberg, University of Nebraska-Lincoln NRC Staff Peter Abel Robert S. Chen John S. Perry iii Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Charles L. Hosler; Jr., Pennsylvania St.ate University, Ohairman Louis J. Battan, University of Arizona Kirk Bryan, Princeton University William C. Clark, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Robert A. Duce, University of Rhode Island John A. Eddy, National Center for Atmospheric Research John Gerber, University of Florida John B. Hovermale, Naval Environmental Prediction Research Facility Francis S. Johnson, University of Texas, Dallas Michael B. McElroy, Harvard University Volker A. Mohnen, State University of New York, Albany Andrew F. Nagy, University of Michigan Julia N. Paegle, University of Utah Roger R. Revelle, University of California, San Diego Juan G. Roederer, University of Alaska John W. Townsend, Fairchild Space & Electronics Company Warren Washington, National Center for Atmospheric Research Ex-Officio Members Werner A. Baum, Florida State University Devire Intriligator, Carmel Research Center Joseph Smagorinsky, Princeton University Verner E. Suomi, University of Wisconsin, Madison iv Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources Herbert Friedman, National Research Council, Chairman Clarence R. Allen, California Institute of Technology Thomas Barrow, Standard Oil Company, Inc. (Retired) Elkan R. Blout, Harvard Medical School Bernard F. Burke, Massachusetts Institute of Technology George F. Carrier, Harvard University Charles L. Drake, Dartmouth College Mildred S. Dresselhaus, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joseph L. Fisher, Office of the Governor, Commonwealth of Virginia James C. Fletcher, University of Pittsburgh William A. Fowler, California Institute of Technology Gerhart Friedlander, Brookhaven National Laboratory Edward D. Goldberg, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Mary 1. Good, UOP, Inc. J. Ross MacDonald, University of North Carolina Thomas F. Malone, Saint Joseph College Charles J. Mankin, Oklahoma Geological Survey Perry L. McCarty, Stanford University William D. Phillips, Mallinckrodt, Inc. Robert E. Sievers, University of Colorado John D. Spengler, Harvard School of Public Health George W. Wetherill, Carnegie Institution of Washington Raphael G. Kasper, Executive Director Lawrence E.McCray, Associate Executive Director v This Page Intentionally left Blank FOREWORD Cooperation in observation and research has long been the hallmark of the earth sciences. In the seventeenth century, Hadley laboriously developed an understanding of the global atmospheric circulation and the trade winds from carefully collected ships' logs. By the nineteenth cen­ tury, formally organized international scientific activities began to take shape, such as the First Polar Year of 1882-1883. In the same period, international networks of weather observations emerged that have contin­ ued through the present. In our own century, the International Geophy­ sical Year (lGY) of 1957-1958 not only created an unprecedented treasure trove of coordinated data but also spawned a host of successor programs, some of which are still in progress. For the most part, these programs focused on one or another com­ ponent of our complex planet and primarily involved the scientific discip­ lines specialized to address that component. For example, the Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) addressed the large-scale circula­ tion of the atmosphere; through its observational programs and coordi­ nated research efforts, meteorologists and oceanographers greatly advanced our understanding of the processes determining weather and climate variability. The power of space-based observations of solar radia­ tion and its role in global stratospheric photochemistry has further exposed the vast complexity of atmospheric processes at high altitude. The very success of these endeavors within the various disciplines of the earth sciences, however, has made us aware of their limitations. As we have learned more about the workings of the Earth's atmosphere, oce­ ans, biota, space environment, solar variability, and indeed the solid Earth itself, we have become increasingly aware of the interactions among these components. Indeed, it has become increasingly evident that the most scientifically challenging and socially important problems facing the environmental sciences lie at the interfaces between these com­ ponents, and thus between the established disciplines of the sciences of the geosphere and biosphere. The modern view of the Earth as a scene of continual change, and of mankind as an increasingly potent agent for change, heightens the vii importance of these interactions. The richly detailed chronology of massive global changes in the Quaternary associated with the advance and retreat of the great ice sheets can be understood only in a framework that encompasses ocean chemistry and biology, lithospheric dynamics, solar and orbital variations, and the terrestrial biota. Understanding future environmental changes that may be induced by mankind's transformation of the Earth's surface and the atmosphere's composition will require an even greater breadth of investigation that includes the social sciences. Such considerations, inspired by the twenty-fifth anniversary of the IGY, have generated a number of initatives aimed at fostering international, interdisciplinary, and global-scale studies. A unifying theme was cogently stated by George Garland in an International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) lecture commemorating the twenty­ fifth anniversary of the IGY. He remarked that the "mysteries" that remain in our understanding of the planet involve the interaction between physical and biological processes, including those processes dominated by human actions. A group of scientists advising the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under the leadership of Richard Goody called for a program to address the continued "habitability" of the planet. Within the National Research Council (NRC), I encouraged discussions of future international interdisciplinary programs by the several units of the NRC concerned with the natural sciences.