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Raw Sugar Prices 4*9 ERM69 LWRTAT IOA'T. a ,nT, FO 7 SECOtTSThJIOIT & DU Public Disclosure Authorized RESEARCH =AR7T;2EITT Public Disclosure Authorized SUGAR (A Brief Review of Tlrends in Production, Trade and Consumptiozn) Public Disclosure Authorized Economic Resources and Markets Staff Prepared by: Paul F. Craig-Martin Public Disclosure Authorized Approved by: Joserh S. GoualddEMs 2 February 18, 1948 CCPY:22 TABT OF'0O ONTNTS Summary. Pages I. Production and Trade 1 _ 9 II. Consumption. 9- 10 III. Prices. 10- 12 IV. Future Trends. 12 - 16 TA3I;ES World Production of Sugar, World Trade in Sugar, Group I - Preference Systems. World Trade in Sugar, Group II - Pree Market. Sugar Production, Trade and Consumption, Prewar. Sugar Production, Trade and Consumption, 1946/47. Estimated Sugar Consumption. Raw Sugar Prices, CHARTS Estimated World Production of Cane and Beet Sugar. World Trade in Sugar. Raw Sugar Prices. SUGAR (A Brief Review of Trends in Production, Trade and Consumtion) SUMMARY 1. Sugar is obtained on a large scale from two plants only: sugar beet and sugar cane, The two plants do not compete for the same soilg. 2. No distinction is made by consumers between refined beet and cane sugar, 3. Beet sugar can only be produced with assistance (e.g. subsidies) because its costs of production are higher than those for cane sugar. As- sistance to beet sugar industries is granted for numerous political and economic reasons, not least of which is the fact that sugar beet cultiva- tion forms a valuable part and is integrated with the whole farming system in producing countries. 4. Direct competition of beet sugar with cane sugar on world markets has been possible because beet sugar producing countries have been eble to recover losses on exports from their 'Large domestic markets. Indirect com- petition of beet sugar with cane sugar has tak-en the form of a spread of sugar beet cultivation, under the urge of economic nationalism, with a re- sultant reduction in world markets. 5. The growth of preference systems since the beginning of the twen- tieth century has brought about a marked reduction in true international trade and concentrated the struggle for world markets among "independent" beet and cane sugar exporters. 6. E.xport prices vary for countries enjoying preferential markets and those without such markets: export prices within preference systems vary from each other,, However, all such prices are inter-related through world prices determined on the free market. In 1934, prices within the United States - 2 - preference system were largely divorced from world prices by the alloca- tion of export and production quotas between members. 7. In 1937, an International Sugar Agreement was signed by all the main importing and exporting countriest the chief provision was the limita- tion set to the growth of preferential production and exports in relation to the free market. 8. World War II upset the eqtilibrium established in 1937 by the sus- pension of the relevant provisions, although the Agreement was extended until 31 August 1948. 9. The current foreign exchange situation has aggravated the long term problems of the independent sugar exporters by extending preference systems from the old tariff areas to wider groupings on the basis of exchange and trade relations. 10. Futzre trends in production will be upward, with a recovery in European sugar beet production relatively faster than for other creps and quick rehabilitation in the Philippines; recovery in Java will be slower; a full return to prewar levels is unlikely in Pormesa, Future trends in consumption also will be upward with the recovery of demand in war affect- ed areas. 11. After recovery, potential increases in sugar production, on the basis of both area and yield, are considerable but are relatively greater for cane than for beet sugar. Potential increases in sugar consumption are appreciable but are relatively greater for underdeveloped than for more ad- vanced countries. However, increases in production are relatively faster than for consumption and surplus positions, as in the past, are likely to occur. 12. The world price of sugar, which has been increasing since 1932* has probably passed its peak. In many countries current prices barely cover costs of production. Consequently, profits must be increasingly sought in the full utilization of by-products, particularly of cane sugar production. SLTJC-AR Sugar is obtained on a large scale from two plants onlys sugar canle a nerennial plant of tropical anad sifo-tropical zones, and. sugar beet, a *biennial plant of the temper.te zone, The two plants do not cor.mfntete fo the sczme soil. Raw sugar is extracted from 'both cana an.l beet in factories located near the source of the raw material, consequently, neith.ler cane nor beat are transported over long distances. 'Usually, refined beet sugar is obtained from a continuous process in t,le same factories extracting raw suagar 0 On the other hand, raw cane sugar is translorted {from the tropical prodlcing countries to consuring ccuntries where it is refined;, Only a very small nor- tion of refined cane sugar enters into primary trad.e 'but, there is a consider- able secondary trad.e. No distinction is made by consumners betw.!een refined beet and cane sugar, I. Prrduction and Tra.de 'Jorld prodluction and. trade in sugar is still end.eavouring to rt.i- just itself to a new pattern, althoueh the period of adjustment has already lasted ever a hundred years, 'Jith the economic value given to thle earlier discovery of sucrose in b)eets by the Kapoleonic Irars the stege was set for the long struggle betwteen beet sugar and the older cane sugar. This struggle has been complicated by imperi.alJ preference systemn;s 0 Thus the main problems for the sugar world., problems which have not yet been fully resolved, are:- (a) The necessary adjustments by all cane s,.L proJucers to (1) the competition of beet sugar on world markets, and (2) the narrowing of mrarkets caused.'Lb the spread of beet sugar production, anLd (b) The necessary adjustments by independent cane sugar producers to the further narrowing Df m' c-u.- rl,r + '- A dtedy growth of preference system- a,. c-Stczl unzior,. The inevitability of the need for these adjustments has been con- cealed by two main factors, firstly, the long term rising trend in consump tion of sugar, mind, oecond.l1,r the incidence of wars. Ir order to assess the progress made in these fund.amer-ta1 adjust- menets and th'e pirospects for the future it is necessary to review past devel- opments, w.,hich, althiough conti-nuous, fall conveniently into three pariods. 3>ui.nga this -oriod the first of the problems of adjustment, i.e, direct competition of beet and. cane sugar for wcorId.markets, was domninant. Competition grew wit'h the rapid expansion of beet sugar -roduction:- Beet Sugar in 'Ucrld S- ar Pro-Ouction Percent 1852153 14,0 19C1/02 54' 4 TEhis vast increase in beet sugar preduction resulted in a rapidly mounting exort surplus, particularly as over 90 oercent of the world beet sugar output was concentrated in oinly seven countries. Production in these countries in 1901/02 together with e:nort surpluses was as follows:- Season 1901J02 Beet Sugar Production Bx>rts* (thous. m.letric tons) (thous. metric tons) Germany 2305 1272 Ausstria/1/Xungary 1302 836 France 1123 535 Netherlanids 203 277 B el>ium 325 192 FLRissia o1076 l50 Total seven countries 6,3-34-. 22 * Including refined cane sugar, particularly for France and the YTetherlands. Five main factors contributed to the rapid rise of the beet sugar industry in E:urope during the nineteenth century. They were:- (a) State Aid - Thcouragement of beet sugar production twas partJly due to the fact that beet cultivation promoted the progress of farmirng in general. Assistance took various forms as -Ifollows: (a) Duties on raw sugar based upon an assumei ratio of extraction of refined sugar, enabling a propor- tion to escap>De taxation, (b) Direct subcsidies or premium.s on sugear proLuced., (c) Preferential scales of imnort dutieso (d) Differentia.al scales of im-oort duties on raw and re- fi:Led. (e) Dr-a-TIac'-s of duty on e ::orts greater thani duties paid., (f) .Dxirect bounties or. exports, (b) Carteli.zaton - In the second half of the nineteenth century sugar manufacturers rnGermany ancl Austrira ba-nded themselves into cartels, wlhich forced u-c the price on home markets as high as the import duties allcwved and. enabled t1hem to dum.p hnuige suroluses on overseas markets at very- low prices. (c) Abolition of Slave.x - Between 1825/1880 Euronean governments abolished sla?erw.7 in their American colonies, There was an immed- iate and prolonged. shortage of labor in these cane sugar producing areas, which broug:ht some to the verge of ruin0 Xt took twrenty to thirty years in most cases to readjust to free labor. (d.) Pritainls Tariff Policv - `ritain, by far the largest con- sumer of sugar, abolished preferential tariffs for Em-oire supplies in 1654 aand all import dluties by 1874- Import duties were not re- introduced (until 1901 and Empire preference did not return until 1919. (e) Raoid Increase in Consumotion - The setback to carne sugar production by the abolition of slavery reduced the competition which had to be met by beet sugar, and, in conseeuence, it took- full ad- vantage of the rao.id increase in world consurmtion Cvane sugar pro- duction iincreased. at the same time but its !rrowth was retarde& by the difficulties of the induastry in the Amiericase, -etween 1852' and 1902 world production of beet and.
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