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Annual Assessment No. 10 2013-2014 Annual Assessment - Jewish People Policy Institute ANNUAL ASSESSMENT The Jewish People: Situation and Dynamics 'Jews by Religion' and 'Jews of no Religion' Special Features: DNA and Identity South Africa after Mandela THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE (Established by the Jewish Agency for Israel) Ltd. (CC) www.jppi.org.il Givat Ram Campus • P.O.B. 39156 Jerusalem 9139101 [email protected] Tel: 972-2-5633356 • Fax: 972-2-5635040 ISBN 978-965-7549-08-7 Partners and Members Board of Directors and Professional About JPPI of the General Meeting: Guiding Council: The Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) is an independent professional policy planning think tank Lester Crown and Charles Goodman Co-Chairs incorporated as a private non-profit company in Israel. The mission of the Institute is to ensure the thriving on behalf of Crown Family Philanthropies Stuart Eizenstat of the Jewish people and the Jewish civilization by engaging in professional strategic thinking and planning Dennis Ross Nathan and Frances Kirsh on issues of primary concern to world Jewry. Located in Jerusalem, the concept of JPPI regarding the Jewish Associate Chair on behalf of the Kirsh Family Foundation people is global, and includes aspects of major Jewish communities with Israel as one of them, at the core. Leonid Nevzlin JPPI’s activities are action-oriented, placing special emphasis on identifying critical options and analyzing their Irina Nevzlin Kogan Members of the Board potential impact on the future. To this end, the Institute works toward developing professional strategic and on behalf of Nadav Foundation Elliott Abrams Irwin Cotler long-term policy perspectives exploring key factors that may endanger or enhance the future of the Jewish Alisa Robbins Doctoroff and Linda Mirels Wendy Fisher People. JPPI provides professionals, decision-makers, and global leaders with: on behalf of UJA Federation of New York Sami Friedrich • Surveys and analyses of key situations and dynamics Ratner Family Misha Galperin Dan Halperin • “Alerts” to emerging opportunities and threats David Silvers Steve Hoffman • Assessment of important current events and anticipated developments as Chairman of the JAFI Budget Alan Hoffmann • Strategic action options and innovative alternatives and Finance Committee David Kolitz Vernon Kurtz • Policy option analysis Natan Sharansky Morlie Levin • Agenda setting, policy recommendations, and work plan design as Chairman of the JAFI Executive Bernard-Henri Lévy Glen Lewy JPPI is unique in dealing with the future of the Jewish people as a whole within a methodological Paul E. Singer Judit Bokser Liwerant framework of study and policy development. Its independence is assured by its company articles, on behalf of the Paul E. Singer Foundation Isaac Molho with a board of directors co-chaired by Ambassadors Stuart Eizenstat and Dennis Ross - both have Steven Nasatir The Judy and Michael Steinhardt Foundation Yaakov Neeman served in the highest echelons of the U.S. government, and Leonid Nevzlin in Israel - and composed of individuals with significant policy experience. The board of directors also serves as the Institute’s Charles Ratner Avi Pazner Professional Guiding Council. as Chairman of the JAFI Board of Governors Jehuda Reinharz John Ruskay Doron Shorer Our thanks to UJA Federation of New York, the Jewish Federation of St. Louis, Jerry Silverman the Jewish Federation of Metropolitan Chicago, Ted Sokolsky the Jewish Federation of Cleveland, Alan Solow Arlene Kaufman and Sandy Baklor, Michael Steinhardt Alex Grass z"l and Jack Kay z"l for their support of this project. Aharon Yadlin President and Founding Director Avinoam Bar-Yosef Projects Coordinator Ita Alcalay ANNUAL ASSESSMENT 2013-2014 No. 10 PROJECT HEAD Dr. Shlomo Fischer coNTRIBUtorS Avinoam Bar-Yosef, Nadia Ellis, Sylvia Barack Fishman, Avi Gil, Inbal Hakman, Michael Herzog, Antony Korenstein, Dov Maimon, Asaf Nissenbaum, Steven Popper, Shmuel Rosner, David Saks, Noah Slepkov, Shalom Salomon Wald, Einat Wilf EDITORS Barry Geltman Rami Tal We would like to thank Prof. Gideon Shimoni, Prof. Uzi Rebhun, and Dr. Deborah Bolnick for their contributitons to this Annual Assessment Copyright © The Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) (Established by the Jewish Agency for Israel) Ltd. (CC) Jerusalem 2014/5774 JPPI, Givat Ram Campus, P.O.B 39156, Jerusalem 9139101, Israel Telephone: 972-2-5633356 | Fax: 972-2-5635040 | www.jppi.org.il All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be translated, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without express written permission from the publisher. Printed and Distributed by the Jewish People Policy Institute Graphic Design: Lotte Design Cover Design: Shlomit Wolf, Lotte Design ISBN 978-965-7549-010-0 Table of Contents Foreword by Dennis Ross and Stuart Eizenstat 5 Part 1: Policy Directions, Integrated ‘Net’ Assessment Suggested Policy Directions, 2013-2014 13 Selected Indicators of World Jewry 20 Integrated ‘Net’ Assessment 25 Part 2: Five Dimensions of Jewish Well-being Geopolitics 2014 – A Strategic Crossroads 39 The Triangular Relationship: Jerusalem, Washington and the U.S. Jewish Community 73 Bonds Within and Between Communities Community Bonds and Israel: Institutionalizing Dialogue, a Positive Trend 81 Identity Formation and Expression Worlds Apart: Systems of Jewish Identity in Israel and the Diaspora 93 Burden Sharing and the Haredim 121 Material Resources Material Resources: 2013-2014 137 Demography The Number of Jews in the United States: Definitions and Methodologies in Contradictory Surveys 149 Haredi Demography – The United States and the United Kingdom 157 Part 3: Special Feature Articles South African Jewry 20 Years into Democracy 173 1989-2014: Russian-Speaking Jews, 25 Years Later 191 Women's Leadership in the American Organized Jewish Community 205 Crowd Sourced Genealogy and Direct-to-Consumer DNA Testing: Implications for the Jewish People 221 1 Foreword It is hard to believe that the JPPI is publishing are tending toward the slightly negative and some its 10th annual assessment of the situation and toward the slightly positive. Israeli demographics dynamics of the Jewish people. This flagship appear favorable because of higher birthrates project began as an effort to create a baseline for and increased potential of Aliyah from Europe – establishing the status and well-being of different which reflects negative pressures there. Jewish Jewish communities around the world. Its aim, identity, especially in the United States, is tending however, was to use that baseline not just for somewhat negatively because of a weakening comparative purposes but to be able to make sense of “belonging and commitment to the recommendations for actions that could arrest Jewish people” among the younger demographic. decline in some communities and promote thriving Communal bonds are strengthening given in others. Each assessment offered judgments stronger commitments to enhanced dialogues. about how Israel was doing geopolitically, and Geopolitically, the assessment also tends toward where it faced challenges as well as opportunities. a more negative conclusion. We take the analysis The relationship between Israel and the Diaspora, that produces this conclusion seriously but also what was happening demographically in both, and feel that it should be evaluated carefully. Israel the general direction of Jewish identity, all figured faces increasing unknowns in the region. Egypt’s prominently in the earlier assessments. future will take a long time to sort out. Whether A few years ago the Institute developed an the election of President Sisi will put Egypt on a interesting methodology for measuring how more stable footing remains to be seen. Israel and the Jewish world were doing. It sought Syria will be a magnet for jihadis worldwide as to measure whether the trends were positive long as Bashar al Assad is there – and his recent or negative in five dimensions: geopolitics, election and the all-out Iranian backing for him demography, identity, communal bonds, and makes it likely that he can rule over western Syria material resources. Not surprisingly, this year’s for some time to come. The ongoing war in Syria, assessment offers a mixed picture. Some of these with its terrible humanitarian consequences, THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE 5 will create new pressures on Jordan, and Jordan’s there is no deal? And, just because the current stability remains critical to Israel’s well-being. positions may be different on an acceptable It also points to another reality in the region. deal, is it a given that if an agreement actually Hezbollah is reluctant to challenge Israel when materializes, the differences cannot be managed? it is consumed in Syria – and this proxy war We are not so sure. Similarly, on the question of between Iran and Saudi Arabia will not end Israeli-Palestinian peace, the administration may anytime soon. well see the settlement issue as compounding the effort Secretary Kerry made, but it is neither Recent polling of 18-24 year olds throughout indifferent to Abu Mazen’s having not responded the region, the segment that drove the Arab to the principles that were offered to him nor to Awakening three years ago, shows a very different the reconciliation deal he signed with Hamas. At mindset today. There is much less interest, than this point, we don’t know whether Palestinian a few years
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