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Chow Sang Sang Version 5 | Bloomberg: 116 HK EQUITY | Reuters: 0116.HK Refer to Important Disclosures at the End of This Report

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Chow Sang Sang Version 5 | Bloomberg: 116 HK EQUITY | Reuters: 0116.HK Refer to Important Disclosures at the End of This Report China / Hong Kong Company Guide Chow Sang Sang Version 5 | Bloomberg: 116 HK EQUITY | Reuters: 0116.HK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 1 Feb 2017 BUY Potential earnings rebound Last Traded Price ( 1 Feb 2017):HK$14.80 (HSI : 23,318) Price Target 12-mth: HK$16.65 (13% upside) Sequential improvement intact. According to channel checks, Chow Sang Sang’s (CSS) sales momentum for Dec 2016 has strengthened to Potential Catalyst: Recovery in SSSG and profitability positive y-o-y same-store sales growth (SSSG) in both HK/Macau and Where we differ: Our core profit estimates for FY16/FY17/FY18 are China, along with decent gold product sales for the former and strong 5%/3%/6% below consensus. gem-set sales for the latter. As 1H17 could continue to benefit from a Analyst low base (1H16 SSSG: -26% for HK/Macau; -5% for China), we believe Mavis HUI +852 2863 8879 [email protected] the company could sustain a recovering sales trend. Further enhancement in product-mix, costs control and operating leverage What’s New could also prompt an earnings rebound in the coming 6-12 months. Gradual sales recovery remains on track Medium-term prospects also stay positive as consumer affordability in China ascends over time. A low base for the next 6-9 months could more easily fuel a better trend 2016 results preview. CSS will report in Mar 2017. Its recent profit warning announcement stated expectations of a 30-40% y-o-y Trading at 10.7x FY17 PE and 3.8% yield, we earnings fall in 2016. This was mainly attributable to (i) a high base maintain BUY given HK$246m disposal gain of HK Exchanges Shares in 2015, and (ii) the decline in sales turnover for most of 2016 as demand weakened. We estimate CSS to post a 14% sales decline to HK$16.4bn and 38% Price Relative net profit fall to HK$705m, while core profit could decline slightly by HK$ Relative Index 27.9 217 3% to HK$799m (excluding one-offs). 25.9 197 23.9 177 21.9 Better margins will be the key. Looking ahead, 2017 should be a year 157 19.9 137 with mild top-line growth, along with a low base and possible upside 17.9 15.9 117 surprise from gold product sales should gold price edge down further 13.9 97 to attract more purchases. Potential margin improvements could also 11.9 77 9.9 57 come from (i) recovering gross margin for gem-sets as diamond prices Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 bottom-out on tighter supply controls, and (ii) better operating leverage Chow Sang Sang (LHS) Relative HSI (RHS) along with sales and cost improvements, especially on rentals of Forecasts and Valuation standalone stores in HK as CSS continues to renew the expensive leases FY Dec (HK$ m) 2015A 2016E 2017F 2018F Turnover 19,069 16,410 17,575 19,470 from 3 years ago. Further rationalization of its stores in HK will also EBITDA 1,242 1,221 1,371 1,528 help overall efficiency. Pre-tax Profit 1,368 979 1,221 1,375 Valuation: Net Profit 1,130 705 940 1,127 Our TP of HK$16.65 benchmarks 4% FY18 yield, equivalent to 12x Core profit 826 799 940 1,127 FY17 PE (i.e. its average PE). EPS (HK$) 1.67 1.04 1.39 1.67 Core EPS (HK$) 1.22 1.18 1.39 1.67 Core EPS Gth (%) (23.1) (3.3) 17.7 19.9 Key Risks to Our View: DPS (HK$) 0.62 0.42 0.56 0.67 Economic downturn; a further substantial RMB depreciation; policy BV Per Share (HK$) 13.41 14.04 14.87 15.87 changes; strong volatility of gold prices; intensifying competition; and PE (X) 8.9 14.2 10.7 8.9 catastrophic events. Core PE (X) 12.1 12.5 10.7 8.9 P/Cash Flow (X) 7.1 4.8 13.2 14.3 P/Free CF (X) 8.1 5.2 16.7 18.6 At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) 677 EV/EBITDA (X) 8.1 7.0 6.1 5.4 Net Div Yield (%) 4.2 2.8 3.8 4.5 Mkt. Cap (HK$m/US$m) 10,018 / 1,291 P/Book Value (X) 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 Major Shareholders Net Debt/Equity (X) 0.0 CASH CASH CASH Chow family (%) 58.1 ROAE (%) 12.8 7.6 9.6 10.8 The Capital Group Companies, Inc. (%) 11.0 Core profit Rev (%): Nil Nil Nil Schroders Plc (%) 7.0 Consensus EPS (HK$) 1.20 1.38 1.64 Free Float (%) 23.9 Other Broker Recs: B: 5 S: 0 H: 3 3m Avg. Daily Val. (US$m) 0.8 ICB Industry : Consumer Services / General Retailers Source of all data on this page: Company, DBSV, Thomson Reuters, HKEX ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES sa- AH Company Guide Chow Sang Sang CRITICAL DATA POINTS TO WATCH Hong Kong and Macau 80 Earnings Drivers: 73 74 75 70 Long track record. CSS possesses >80 years of heritage and is 61 58 among the older names in the jewellery industry of Greater 60 China. Amongst major peers, the company also maintains the 50 40 longest listing history of >40 years in Hong Kong. All these 30 have helped to reinforce sound brand awareness and 20 customer confidence, which are crucial elements to succeed 10 especially for industries offering bigger ticket-size items, like 0 jewellery retailing. 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F (Note: sales network is broken down into jewellery and watch stores in its disclosure since 2016) Prudent store management. Unlike its major competitors, CSS China maintains a strategy to only open self-operated stores, even 450 in the Mainland China. By doing so, its operations and 405 400 385 customer service level could likely be better controlled to 365 350 322 335 enhance sales efficiency per store. 300 250 Dual-brand expansion. Aside from its core “Chow Sang Sang” 200 brand, the company also operates stores under its “Emphasis” 150 100 brand that targets at younger customers who look for more 50 trendy jewelleries. By growing its retail chain under both 0 brands, CSS has successfully captured a wider range of 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F consumers across different price range and demand. Taiwan Supportive demand from weddings and new borns. The 30 25 24 market currently believes that jewellery demand from Chinese 25 23 23 22 newlywed couples alone could reach at least RMB80bn each 20 year, stemming from 12-13m couples getting married per annum and an average jewellery spending of >RMB6,000 per 15 couple, given that Chinese weddings cost >RMB80,000 on 10 average nowadays (source: China Wedding Industry 5 Development Report). This, comparing to an average of 0 >USD26,000 (or >RMB180,000) in the US that includes 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F >USD4,500 (or >RMB30,000) in jewellery consumption, suggests ample upside in PRC jewellery demand as Chinese Total become more affluent ahead. Besides, earlier proposal of a 2- 600 505 child policy in China could potentially boost overall PRC 483 500 461 demand for new born jewellery gifts in the coming years. 405 416 400 Rising affluence in China. Thanks to the rising per capita 300 income in China along with government’s long-term goal to 200 boost domestic consumption, major jewellery retailers 100 including CSS stand as key beneficiaries of improving 0 spending power over time. This has also caused the gradual 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F shift in preferences for gem-set jewelleries that usually Source: Company, DBS Vickers demand higher average prices than gold products. As gem- sets also generally offer better gross margins (38-42% in 1H16) versus gold products (18-27% in 1H16, including fixed price gold), the continual shift in product-mix towards these higher margin jewelleries should help to beef up overall gross margin in the medium-term. ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES Page 2 Company Guide Chow Sang Sang Leverage & Asset Turnover (x) Balance Sheet: 0.35 1.7 As CSS continues to open self-operated stores rather than 0.30 1.7 1.6 franchisees or licensees, the company maintained a small gross 0.25 gearing of 18% as of Jun 2016, which should be very reasonable 1.6 0.20 as all inventories are kept in its own book. In terms of cash flows, 1.5 0.15 CSS is expected to generate well over HK$500m operating cash 1.5 0.10 inflows a year in the coming 2 years, comfortably financing its 1.4 normal capex requirement of HK$150-200m per annum. 0.05 1.4 0.00 1.3 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Gross Debt to Equity (LHS) Asset Turnover (RHS) Capital Expenditure Share Price Drivers: HK$m CSS has already built well-recognized brand names and strong 200.0 foothold in China, HK and Macau. The company should be in a 180.0 160.0 good position to secure sound medium-term growth prospects 140.0 in the region. While 2017 could still be filled with challenges, 120.0 100.0 market expectations of potential sales improvement, or more 80.0 likely, margin rebound could possibly prompt further re-rating. 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F Key Risks: Capital Expenditure (-) Apart from any possible economic downturns that could affect ROE consumer sentiment, CSS’ businesses could also be affected by price volatility of its inventories (e.g.
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