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Chow Sang Sang (116 HK) Market Mispriced, Reiterate

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Chow Sang Sang (116 HK) Market Mispriced, Reiterate 28 August 2018 Hong Kong EQUITIES Chow Sang Sang (116 HK) 116 HK Outperform Market mispriced, reiterate Buy Price (at 08:50, 28 Aug 2018 GMT) HK$13.48 Valuation HK$ 22.70 Key points - PER SSSg momentum is holding well in July/Aug. 12-month target HK$ 22.70 GPM can be well maintained, in our view, due to fixed gold contribution. Upside/Downside % +68.4 Online sales continued to grow; TP raised to HK$22.70. 12-month TSR % +73.5 Volatility Index Low GICS sector Retailing Event Market cap HK$m 9,132 Market cap US$m 1,163 Chow Sang Sang 1HFY18 revenue and net profit grew 19% and 54% Free float % 42 respectively, beating our estimates by 11% and 20%. We lift our NP forecast 30-day avg turnover US$m 0.2 by 15.5%/21.6% for FY18/19E on the back of strong SSSg and resilient GPM. The company is trading at a very attractive valuation of 7.5x FY19E PER. We Number shares on issue m 677.4 reiterate our Outperform rating with TP raised to HK$22.7 (from HK$22 Investment fundamentals previously) on 12x FY19E PER and 1x PEG. Year end 31 Dec 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E Revenue m 16,634 19,452 21,028 22,638 Impact EBIT m 1,050 1,483 1,681 1,889 SSSg momentum is holding well in July/Aug. SSSg in 1HFY18 arrived at EBIT growth % 3.4 41.2 13.3 12.4 +22% for HK/Macau and +2% for China, of which 2Q18 accelerated with SSSg Reported profit m 876 1,146 1,279 1,437 Adjusted profit m 762 1,119 1,279 1,437 over +30% for HK/Macau and +2% for China respectively. The company sees EPS rep HK$ 1.29 1.69 1.89 2.12 growth momentum holding well in July/Aug with SSSg at high-teens for EPS rep growth % 18.1 30.7 11.6 12.4 HK/Macau and at teens for China. By category, gold has performed better than EPS adj HK$ 1.13 1.65 1.89 2.12 gem-set, while HK gem-set remains healthy in the two-month period. We EPS adj growth % 2.7 46.7 14.3 12.4 projected SSSg at +18.5% for HK/Macau and +2% for China in 2018. PER rep x 10.4 8.0 7.1 6.4 PER adj x 12.0 8.2 7.1 6.4 GPM can be well maintained due to fixed gold contribution. 1HFY18 GPM Total DPS HK$ 0.51 0.67 0.74 0.57 improved by 0.3ppt to 24.7% compared to 1HFY17. This was mainly Total div yield % 3.8 5.0 5.5 4.2 attributable to: i) Contribution from fixed price gold which has a GPM of 30- ROA % 8.1 10.2 10.5 10.6 ROE % 8.0 10.6 11.2 11.7 40%, higher than that of traditional gold products at 16-23%; ii) More EV/EBITDA x 7.8 5.7 5.1 4.6 contribution from China which has a higher GPM than HK/Macau; and iii) Net debt/equity % 8.6 5.2 10.9 13.9 Shifting to a higher retail revenue proportion with stable GPM. Looking into P/BV x 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 2HFY18, the GPM can be at least well maintained on a YoY basis due to the aforementioned reasons. Meanwhile, Opex ratio declined by 1.5ppt to 17% 116 HK rel HSI performance, & rec history due to rental cost savings, largely in line with our projection. Management is negotiating the new rental contracts for 2 shops in HK and they are willing to relocate the shops if the new contracts cannot meet their expectation. Online sales continued to grow. During 1HFY18, online sales rose 23% YoY and accounted for ~14% of China sales with gold and platinum contributing over 90% of the sales mix. The company sees further online growth acceleration in July and August. According to management, over 95% of their online sales come from third party websites, while female customers below the age of 30 are the major contributor. As for the offline expansion plan, the Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no company maintains its plan to open around 50 new shops in China for FY18. Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, August 2018 (all figures in HKD unless noted) Earnings and target price revision We lift our NP forecast by 15.5%/21.6% for FY18/19E. TP raised to HK$22.7 (from HK$22 previously) on 12x FY19E PER and 1x PEG. Price catalyst Analysts Macquarie Capital Limited 12-month price target: HK$22.70 based on a PER methodology. Linda Huang, CFA +852 3922 4068 [email protected] Catalyst: FY18 full year result Hugo Shen +86 21 2412 9077 [email protected] Action and recommendation Maintain Outperform. Please refer to page 6 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. Macquarie Research Chow Sang Sang (116 HK) Investment thesis: Maintain Outperform; TP raised to HK$22.70/sh We believe the company’s shares are undervalued and reiterate our Outperform rating. SSSg momentum was strong in HK/Macau for 1HFY18 and July/Aug while China SSSg maintained at positive level. We projected SSSg at +18.5% for HK/Macau and +2% for China in 2018. We expect GPM could be well maintained in 2HFY18 on a YoY basis thanks to fixed gold contribution and higher sales proportion from China and retail business. We also believe the growing online sales would continue to contribute. Our target price for Chow Sang Sang is based on 12x FY19E PER and 1x PEG. Fig 1 Historical PER bands Fig 2 Historical P/BV bands 45 60 3x 40 19x 50 35 15x 40 30 2x 25 30 1.5x 20 9x 15 20 6x 0.8x 10 3x 10 0.5x 5 0 0 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, August 2018 Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, August 2018 28 August 2018 2 Macquarie Research Chow Sang Sang (116 HK) Earnings revision We raise our net profit forecast by 15.5% and 21.6% for FY18/19E respectively, to factor in a stronger- than-expected 1HFY18 result and management’s guidance. Our new forecasts are based on the following assumptions: Revenue: We lift our revenue forecast by 12.4% and 12.8% for FY18/19E as we factor in strong SSSg momentum up to today this year, the store expansion plan, and more online contribution. OP margin: We remain our forecast for OP margin of 7.6% for FY18E and lift OP margin by 0.6ppt for FY19E to factor in further rental cost savings. Fig 3 Earnings revisions (HK$ m) Old Old New New % chg. % chg. FY2018E FY2019E FY2018E FY2019E FY2018E FY2019E Revenue 17,303.8 18,647.5 19,452.0 21,027.9 12.4% 12.8% Gross Profit 4,247.3 4,548.0 4,723.2 5,133.4 11.2% 12.9% Operating Profit 1,317.6 1,377.3 1,483.0 1,680.9 12.5% 22.0% Pre-Tax 1,295.5 1,363.8 1,476.8 1,645.1 14.0% 20.6% Net Income 992.4 1,051.5 1,146.0 1,278.6 15.5% 21.6% Margin (%) Gross Margin 24.5% 24.4% 24.3% 24.4% -0.3ppt 0.0ppt OP Margin 7.6% 7.4% 7.6% 8.0% 0.0ppt 0.6ppt Net Margin 5.7% 5.6% 5.9% 6.1% 0.2ppt 0.4ppt Source: Macquarie Research, August 2018 28 August 2018 3 Macquarie Research Chow Sang Sang (116 HK) Macquarie Quant View The Quant View page below has been derived from models that are developed and maintained by Sales and Trading personnel at Macquarie. The models are not a product of the Macquarie Research Department. The quant model currently holds a neutral view on Chow Sang Sang. The Attractive Displays where the strongest style exposure is Valuations, indicating this stock is under-priced in company’s ranked based on the market relative to its peers. The weakest style exposure is Profitability, s l the fundamental consensus a indicating this stock is not efficiently converting investments to earnings; t n Price Target and proxied by ratios like ROE or ROA. e Macquarie’s Quantitative m a Alpha model. 286/512 d n u Two rankings: Local market Global rank in F (Hong Kong) and Global Retailing sector (Retailing) Quant % of BUY recommendations 33% (1/3) Local market rank Global sector rank Number of Price Target downgrades 1 Number of Price Target upgrades 0 Macquarie Alpha Model ranking Factors driving the Alpha Model A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their (higher is better). contribution to the current overall Alpha score. Tiffany & Co. 0.5 Tiffany & Co. Chow Tai Fook 0.3 Chow Tai Fook Chow Sang Sang 0.2 Chow Sang Sang Hengdeli Holdings Limited… -0.8 Hengdeli Holdings Limited… -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Price Quality Momentum Momentum Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator Drivers of Stock Return The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple.
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