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Gold Company Review Exploration, Development & Production

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Gold Company Review Exploration, Development & Production GoldUranium Company Sector Rev Reviewiew Exploration, DevelopmentDevelopment & & Production Production JuneMarch Quarter Quarter 2011 2009 Resource Capital Research This report is subject to copyright and may not be redistributed without written permission from RCR. The information contained in this report is for use by US and Australian residents only. Copies are available for purchase from RCR. 27 June 2011 Gold Company Review June Quarter 2011 Resource Analyst (Gold): Dr Tony Parry Resource Analyst: John Wilson Resource Analyst: Murray Brooker Resource Analyst: Khaled Sultan (Toronto) Resource Capital Research Suite 1306 183 Kent Street Sydney, NSW 2000 Tel: +612 9252 9405 Fax: +612 9251 2859 Email: [email protected] Web: www.rcresearch.com.au Resource Capital Research ACN 111 622 489 Resource Capital Research Contents Contents .............................................................................................................................. 2 Overview and Investment Comment ........................................................................................ 3 RCR June Quarter 2011 Featured Company Summary ................................................................ 4 Comparative Charts ............................................................................................................... 6 Financial Data ....................................................................................................................... 7 Company Statistics ................................................................................................................ 7 Reserves, Resources and Historic Mineralisation ........................................................................ 8 Valuation and Performance Data ............................................................................................. 8 Exploration, Development and Production Companies Aphrodite Gold Limited ................................................................................................. 9 Bright Star Resources Limited ..................................................................................... 11 Castle Minerals Limited ............................................................................................. 133 [Cobar Consolidated Resources Limited ........................................................................... ] [Echo Resources Limited ............................................................................................... ] Gold Road Resources Limited ..................................................................................... 155 Gowest Gold Limited .................................................................................................. 17 Kingsgate Consolidated Limited * ................................................................................ 19 [Kingsrose Mining Limited.............................................................................................. ] [Morning Star Gold NL * ................................................................................................ ] [Mt Isa Metals Limited ................................................................................................... ] Norseman Gold Plc * .................................................................................................. 21 PepinNini Minerals Limited .......................................................................................... 23 Sumatra Copper & Gold plc ......................................................................................... 25 [West Wits Mining Limited ............................................................................................. ] [Gold Market Fundamentals ..................................................................................................... ] Industry Trends .................................................................................................................. 27 Selected Charts and Gold Sector Statistics .............................................................................. 33 Report Contributors ............................................................................................................. 35 Disclosure and Disclaimer ..................................................................................................... 36 [This is the Abridged Version of the June 2011 Quarter RCR Gold Company Review. The Subscriber version of the Gold Company Review which includes all company reports and a review of gold market fundamentals (60 pages) can be purchased for A$110.00. The Subscriber versions of the RCR June quarter uranium report can also be purchased for the same price. Contents and purchase details can be found at www.rcresearch.com.au ] * Indicates companies with detailed financial projections and valuation available. June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright © 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 2 Resource Capital Research Overview and Investment Comment Gold Price Outlook Gold has continued to set new records during the June 2011 quarter. In April gold set a Currently (June 27) it is trading at US$1,502/ounce, after an all time new record of high of US$1,563.70/ounce (April 29). It started the quarter at US$1,563.70/ounce, and is up 21% in the US$1429/oz. Overall, the US dollar gold price is up 21% in the past past twelve months. twelve months. We think that the US dollar could arrest its long term decline, which is The US dollar’s trend negative for gold. However, it is the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis that and the Eurozone could be the key to ignite further investment demand for gold. At the debt crisis are the key very least, it will keep the focus on gold as a source of some ‘insurance’ factors currently during a very uncertain period for the global financial system. influencing investment demand For this reason we maintain the position we have held in our past for gold. Reviews: although we have some concerns regarding the fundamentals for gold, it would be foolish to bet against the gold price in the short to medium term. The risk seems to be more on the upside than the Because of the downside for the next six months. In our last Review (March Quarter Eurozone debt crisis, 2011) we forecast a gold price averaging US$1,450/ounce over the rather than a weaker ensuing six months. We raise our forecast to US$1,550/ounce for the US$, RCR is six months ahead. forecasting higher prices (US$1,550/oz) Longer term (beyond 2011), we are cautious on the outlook for gold. for the balance of We are concerned about the recent outflows of gold onto the market 2011... from Exchange Traded Funds. We do not expect the US dollar to collapse (it, in itself, is a safe haven), and we consider inflation fears …but we could be are over-stated. Eventually gold’s unique safe haven appeal could start seeing the peak in the to dissipate. Our guess (and it is only a guess!) is in the first half of gold market in the 2012, particularly if we see signs of a recovery in equity and property next six months. markets and positive real interest rates in the US. Gold Equities Gold equities (as measured by the major gold share indices) have performed poorly in the past year, as is indicated in the table below. The five share indices detailed below have all significantly underperformed the US dollar gold price (and overall equity markets) in Gold shares have the twelve months since June 24 2010. Only the Australian share index significantly is in positive territory (up 8%) despite the US dollar gold price rising by underperformed 21% in that period. Gold may have been a safe haven in uncertain relative to physical times, but gold shares in the past year definitely have not been. gold over the past twelve months, failing Current * 1 month 3 month 6 month 1 year to provide a similar safe haven. Gold Price Comex US$/oz na -1% 5% 9% 21% USA S&P 500 Gold Index na -5% -4% -13% -11% Canada S&P/TSX Gold Index na -5% -10% -13% -3% Australia S&P/ASX200 Gold Index na -4% -8% -11% 8% South Africa FTSE/JSE Gold Index na -12% -16% -14% -10% FTSE Gold Index FTSE Gold Index na -1% -10% -11% 0% World Markets (all sectors) Morgan Stanley World Index na -3% -4% 0% 18% *Table data as at June 24 2011 Source: Bloomberg, RCR June Quarter 2011 Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright © 2011 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 3 Resource Capital Research RCR June Quarter 2011 Featured Company Summary Company Summary AUSTRALIA Company Code Comment Aphrodite Gold Limited AQQ Advanced Exploration, Scoping Study AQQ has recently outlined a resource of over 1Moz at the Aphrodite Gold Project near Kalgoorlie. With a current EV/resource ratio of only A$9.20/ounce we see potential for a significant re-rating of the stock to levels of around 2-3 times the current share price. Bright Star Resources Limited BUT Mid-Advanced Exploration Tanzanian-focused BUT has already got its foot on 680koz of resource equity in this gold-rich country. Exploration is planned which could increase resources rapidly, and drive a re-rating based on an enterprise value well below that of some African exploration peers. Castle Minerals Limited CDT Early to Advanced Exploration Another virgin discovery (Castle's third) of a potentially major mineralised zone at Baayiri, NW Ghana, highlights the huge potential of its 12,000km2 Ghana tenement position. This potential is not lost on neighbour Azumah Resources, which has built a 13% stake in CDT. Cobar
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