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FFNYC April May Benchmark FP BENCHMARK SURVEY FINDINGS FUTURE FORWARD NYC NYC MAYORAL DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY APRIL - MAY 2021 Methodology This survey was conducted April 26 – May 1, 2021, in NYC among 600 June 2021 Democratic Primary likely voters. The sampling includes cellphones and landlines. The margin of error for this survey at the 95% confidence level is ±4.00% on the overall sample. The margin of error on sub-samples is greater. 2 Executive Summary 3 Key Takeaways Lay of the Land: COVID-19 Not a Top Concern; Experience Wanted • Consistent with other recent citywide surveys, only 13% of voters plan to vote by absentee ballot, significantly down from 2020. Half of the electorate plans to vote on Primary Day. This is likely a result of declining concerns regarding COVID-19. • Further, COVID does not register high among priorities in open-ended issues of concern. Among their top open-ended concerns, voters believe the next NYC Mayor should tackle the following issues: – Crime/Gangs/Guns (28%) – Economy/Jobs (21%) – Education/Schools (17%) – Affordable Housing (15%) – Police-Community Relations (14%) – Homelessness (12%) – Mass Transit (11%) • Voters prefer their next Mayor to be someone who has years of government experience (49%) as opposed to a fresh face (29%). This is primarily the issue for voters 50+, and not as big an issue for voters under 50. 4 Key Takeaways Voter Familiarity with the Candidates: Yang Best Known • The favorability findings clearly indicate that Andrew Yang is the best known, with the rest of the candidates following behind at roughly similar levels of familiarity in essentially three tiers: Stringer and Adams; followed by McGuire, Donovan and Wiley; then followed by Garcia and Morales. With Yang’s high name recognition comes an unfavorable rating of 26%, higher than any other candidate. • Yang scores his highest favorability ratings among: – Asian voters, 74% – Bronx voters, 68% – Men, 66% – Black voters, 64% – Queens voters, 64% 5 Key Takeaways The Initial, Uninformed Ballot: Undecided Leads, with Yang Close 2nd The uninformed ballot, before any descriptive messaging is conveyed to the survey respondents, bodes well for Yang, though he far underperforms his favorability rating, meaning more people know him and like him than would vote for him as Mayor. However this could be a benefit for him in rank choice voting, where 2nd and 3rd choice ballots are typically driven by favorability. Yang leads at 21%; Adams and Stringer stand at 14%; Wiley, McGuire and Donovan stand at 6%; Garcia at 4%; Morales at 3%. Unsurprisingly, but significantly, 23% of voters are undecided with another 3% refusing a response. Of note, Yang’s best performing demographic sub-groups include voters under 50 (avg. 28%), Bronx voters (33%), Asian voters (46%) and Hispanic voters (26%). This lead among many of these sub-groups continues throughout the survey, forming Yang’s base. The horserace does NOT change significantly throughout the survey. Yang’s base is fairly baked and there is not a lot of fluctuation among voters who have already chosen their candidate. Further, not enough information has yet been communicated to chip away at the quarter of the electorate that is undecided. 6 Key Takeaways Framing the Candidates & the Informed Ballot • After reading to respondents positive and negative information about the candidates, the race does not shift materially. The share of undecideds drops by 6%, with Yang’s vote share statistically the same, as is that of the other candidates’. • As mentioned, this signifies baked in support across the electorate for voters who have chosen their candidate. Undecided voters still do not feel they have enough information to make a determination. • Yang’s best performing demographic sub-groups remain voters under 50 (avg. 25%), Bronx voters (26%) and Asian voters (46%). • Important to note – Some Hispanic voters have shifted to Stringer and Adams. Adams now leads among voters 65+ and is still competitive with Yang among Black voters. • Stringer remains in the lead among Manhattan voters and White voters, though within the margin of error. 7 Key Takeaways Final Ballot & Nuance in Yang’s Positive Messages • Most of Yang’s positive messages performed well. However, there is a range with several messages standing out more than others. Examples include: – Healthcare [Overall: 69% Total Convincing; 32% Very Convincing] [Yang 2nd Choice Voters: 86% Total Convincing; 39% Very Convincing] – Schools: [Overall: 69% Total Convincing; 32% Very Convincing] [Yang 2nd Choice Voters : 80% Total Convincing; 40% Very Convincing] – Transit: [Overall: 63% Total Convincing; 25% Very Convincing] [Yang 2nd Choice Voters : 85% Total Convincing; 45% Very Convincing • Yang is in 4th place for 2nd choice votes behind Adams, Wiley and Stringer, but his lead in first place votes keeps him in the drivers seat. • High turnout among young voters will be key to a Yang victory. 8 Key Takeaways 2nd Choice Voters & RCV • Voters who choose Yang as their 2nd choice for NYC Mayor are scattered throughout the electorate. • And while Yang remains in 4th place for 2nd choice voters, RCV simulation on the final ballot bodes well for Yang as it comes down to him and Stringer on the 7th round with Yang at 61% and Stringer at 39%. 9 Key Takeaways Bottom Line: Communicate with Yang 2nd Choice Voters • Interestingly, there is no significant movement across the three ballots, after informed choices. • Yang’s base is baked. The same holds true for many of the other candidates. However, a significant share of voters still do not have the information they need to make a decision. • Overcoming this knowledge deficit requires a significant amount of resources to be spent communicating Yang’s messages. • It is our recommendation to communicate messages that resonate with Yang’s 2nd choice voters in an effort to keep them from moving to other candidates • In addition to consolidating second choice voters, campaigns and I.E.s cannot sleep on Yang’s first choice voters. While all indicators are that Yang’s first choice voters are baked-in, they cannot be taken for granted, given Adams’ momentum, as well as Stringer’s staying power – the recent allegations have not harmed him. 10 Atmospherics 11 Q.3 Do you plan on voting by absentee ballot or in-person at your poll site? Breakdown Absentee Early Primary Day Und Vote Male 15% 27% 45% 13% Female 12% 28% 51% 9% Age 18-29 12% 28% 55% 6% Undecided Absentee Age 30-39 11% 27% 56% 6% 11% 13% Age 40-49 14% 23% 52% 10% Age 50-64 11% 31% 45% 13% Age 65+ 17% 26% 46% 11% In-Person White 17% 29% 44% 10% In-Person on Early Voting Black 9% 25% 60% 6% Primary Day 27% Hispanic 18% 25% 44% 12% 49% Asian* 12% 22% 43% 24% Bronx 9% 21% 62% 7% Brooklyn 9% 31% 47% 12% Manhattan 17% 27% 41% 14% Queens 18% 24% 50% 7% Staten Isl.* 14% 38% 48% 0% Liberal 17% 31% 41% 11% Moderate 11% 26% 51% 11% *Small sample size, minor statistical significance. Conservative 7% 15% 73% 5% 12 Swing 10% 28% 55% 6% Q.4 What are the two most important problems facing your community today that you’d like your Mayor to work on? (open-ended) 30% 28% 21% 20% 17% 15% 14% 12% 11% 10% 0% Crime/Gang Jobs/Economy Education/Schools Affordable Police-Community Homelessness Mass Transit Violence/Guns Housing Relations 13 Q.5 Experience vs. Fresh Face Breakdown Experience Fresh Und Thinking about the next Mayor of New York City, would you prefer Face someone who has years of government experience and a track record in city politics or someone new to city government who will be a fresh Male 48% 33% 19% face and bring a new perspective to City Hall? Female 49% 27% 23% Age 18-29 33% 26% 40% Age 30-39 42% 36% 20% Age 40-49 44% 35% 21% Undecided Age 50-64 49% 27% 23% 22% Age 65+ 55% 28% 17% Experience White 49% 28% 22% 49% Black 50% 28% 22% Hispanic 45% 36% 18% Fresh Face 29% Asian* 41% 38% 21% Bronx 50% 35% 15% Brooklyn 49% 30% 21% Manhattan 55% 22% 22% Queens 44% 35% 21% Staten Isl.* 23% 22% 51% Liberal 52% 24% 24% Moderate 49% 34% 18% *Small sample size, minor statistical significance. Conservative 30% 52% 17% 14 Swing 44% 37% 19% How Do Democratic Voters View The Candidates? 15 Q.6-13 Personal Favorabilities 59% 60% 50% 46% 38% 38% 40% 36% 25% 22% 20% 0% -8% -8% -10% -11% -11% -16% -20% -18% -26% Yang Stringer Adams McGuir Donovan Wiley Garcia Morales -40% e Yang’s favorability rating is majority positive across demos, but there is a net 16% gender gap with Yang more popular among men. Yang also scores a higher favorability rating among Black voters and voters outside of Manhattan. 16 The Race for NYC Mayor 17 Q.14 Uninformed Ballot DK/Ref 3% Morales 3% Undecided 23% Donovan 6% McGuire 6% Yang 21% Garcia 4% Adams Stringer 14% 14% Wiley 6% 18 Q.14 Uninformed Ballot Demo Yang Adams Stringer Wiley Garcia McGuire Donovan Morales Und Total 21% 14% 14% 6% 4% 6% 6% 3% 23% Male 22% 13% 13% 6% 5% 5% 8% 1% 24% Female 20% 14% 14% 7% 3% 7% 6% 3% 23% Age 18-29 29% 11% 22% 10% 0% 6% 0% 12% 5% Age 30-39 27% 8% 13% 9% 5% 4% 2% 3% 3% Age 40-49 29% 16% 10% 7% 2% 5% 3% 2% 3% Yang & Adams tied among seniors – plurality of Age 50-64 19% 13% 17% 7% 5% 2% 6% 2% 2% electorate Age 65+ 16% 17% 11% 4% 3% 11% 12% 1% 3% White 14% 12% 17% 8% 6% 6% 8% 4% 4% Black 22% 23% 7% 7% 3% 9% 4% 1% 2% Hispanic 26% 10% 12% 8% 3% 4% 8% 4% 2% Asian* 46% 12% 10% 0% 0% 5% 4% 0% 3% Bronx 33% 11% 5% 5% 1% 5% 10% 1% 27% Stringer maintains leads Brooklyn 19% 17% 11% 8% 4% 8% 3% 2% 27% Manhattan 17% 11% 22% 9% 4% 8% 9% 4% 15% Queens 21% 15% 15% 3% 4% 5% 8% 1% 24% 50%+ of Yang swings start Staten Isl.* 30% 11% 3% 9% 0% 6% 0% 0% 41% off undecided.
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