BENCHMARK SURVEY FINDINGS FUTURE FORWARD NYC NYC MAYORAL DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY APRIL - MAY 2021 Methodology

This survey was conducted April 26 – May 1, 2021, in NYC among 600 June 2021 Democratic Primary likely voters. The sampling includes cellphones and landlines. The margin of error for this survey at the 95% confidence level is ±4.00% on the overall sample. The margin of error on sub-samples is greater.

2 Executive Summary

3 Key Takeaways

Lay of the Land: COVID-19 Not a Top Concern; Experience Wanted

• Consistent with other recent citywide surveys, only 13% of voters plan to vote by absentee ballot, significantly down from 2020. Half of the electorate plans to vote on Primary Day. This is likely a result of declining concerns regarding COVID-19.

• Further, COVID does not register high among priorities in open-ended issues of concern. Among their top open-ended concerns, voters believe the next NYC Mayor should tackle the following issues: – Crime/Gangs/Guns (28%) – Economy/Jobs (21%) – Education/Schools (17%) – Affordable Housing (15%) – Police-Community Relations (14%) – Homelessness (12%) – Mass Transit (11%)

• Voters prefer their next Mayor to be someone who has years of government experience (49%) as opposed to a fresh face (29%). This is primarily the issue for voters 50+, and not as big an issue for voters under 50.

4 Key Takeaways

Voter Familiarity with the Candidates: Yang Best Known

• The favorability findings clearly indicate that Andrew Yang is the best known, with the rest of the candidates following behind at roughly similar levels of familiarity in essentially three tiers: Stringer and Adams; followed by McGuire, Donovan and Wiley; then followed by Garcia and Morales. With Yang’s high name recognition comes an unfavorable rating of 26%, higher than any other candidate.

• Yang scores his highest favorability ratings among: – Asian voters, 74% – Bronx voters, 68% – Men, 66% – Black voters, 64% – Queens voters, 64%

5 Key Takeaways

The Initial, Uninformed Ballot: Undecided Leads, with Yang Close 2nd

The uninformed ballot, before any descriptive messaging is conveyed to the survey respondents, bodes well for Yang, though he far underperforms his favorability rating, meaning more people know him and like him than would vote for him as Mayor. However this could be a benefit for him in rank choice voting, where 2nd and 3rd choice ballots are typically driven by favorability.

Yang leads at 21%; Adams and Stringer stand at 14%; Wiley, McGuire and Donovan stand at 6%; Garcia at 4%; Morales at 3%. Unsurprisingly, but significantly, 23% of voters are undecided with another 3% refusing a response.

Of note, Yang’s best performing demographic sub-groups include voters under 50 (avg. 28%), Bronx voters (33%), Asian voters (46%) and Hispanic voters (26%). This lead among many of these sub-groups continues throughout the survey, forming Yang’s base.

The horserace does NOT change significantly throughout the survey. Yang’s base is fairly baked and there is not a lot of fluctuation among voters who have already chosen their candidate. Further, not enough information has yet been communicated to chip away at the quarter of the electorate that is undecided.

6 Key Takeaways Framing the Candidates & the Informed Ballot

• After reading to respondents positive and negative information about the candidates, the race does not shift materially. The share of undecideds drops by 6%, with Yang’s vote share statistically the same, as is that of the other candidates’.

• As mentioned, this signifies baked in support across the electorate for voters who have chosen their candidate. Undecided voters still do not feel they have enough information to make a determination.

• Yang’s best performing demographic sub-groups remain voters under 50 (avg. 25%), Bronx voters (26%) and Asian voters (46%).

• Important to note – Some Hispanic voters have shifted to Stringer and Adams. Adams now leads among voters 65+ and is still competitive with Yang among Black voters.

• Stringer remains in the lead among voters and White voters, though within the margin of error.

7 Key Takeaways Final Ballot & Nuance in Yang’s Positive Messages

• Most of Yang’s positive messages performed well. However, there is a range with several messages standing out more than others. Examples include: – Healthcare [Overall: 69% Total Convincing; 32% Very Convincing] [Yang 2nd Choice Voters: 86% Total Convincing; 39% Very Convincing] – Schools: [Overall: 69% Total Convincing; 32% Very Convincing] [Yang 2nd Choice Voters : 80% Total Convincing; 40% Very Convincing] – Transit: [Overall: 63% Total Convincing; 25% Very Convincing] [Yang 2nd Choice Voters : 85% Total Convincing; 45% Very Convincing

• Yang is in 4th place for 2nd choice votes behind Adams, Wiley and Stringer, but his lead in first place votes keeps him in the drivers seat.

• High turnout among young voters will be key to a Yang victory.

8 Key Takeaways

2nd Choice Voters & RCV

• Voters who choose Yang as their 2nd choice for NYC Mayor are scattered throughout the electorate.

• And while Yang remains in 4th place for 2nd choice voters, RCV simulation on the final ballot bodes well for Yang as it comes down to him and Stringer on the 7th round with Yang at 61% and Stringer at 39%.

9 Key Takeaways Bottom Line: Communicate with Yang 2nd Choice Voters

• Interestingly, there is no significant movement across the three ballots, after informed choices.

• Yang’s base is baked. The same holds true for many of the other candidates. However, a significant share of voters still do not have the information they need to make a decision.

• Overcoming this knowledge deficit requires a significant amount of resources to be spent communicating Yang’s messages.

• It is our recommendation to communicate messages that resonate with Yang’s 2nd choice voters in an effort to keep them from moving to other candidates

• In addition to consolidating second choice voters, campaigns and I.E.s cannot sleep on Yang’s first choice voters. While all indicators are that Yang’s first choice voters are baked-in, they cannot be taken for granted, given Adams’ momentum, as well as Stringer’s staying power – the recent allegations have not harmed him.

10 Atmospherics

11 Q.3 Do you plan on voting by absentee ballot or in-person at your poll site? Breakdown Absentee Early Primary Day Und Vote Male 15% 27% 45% 13% Female 12% 28% 51% 9% Age 18-29 12% 28% 55% 6% Undecided Absentee Age 30-39 11% 27% 56% 6% 11% 13% Age 40-49 14% 23% 52% 10% Age 50-64 11% 31% 45% 13% Age 65+ 17% 26% 46% 11% In-Person White 17% 29% 44% 10% In-Person on Early Voting Black 9% 25% 60% 6% Primary Day 27% Hispanic 18% 25% 44% 12% 49% Asian* 12% 22% 43% 24% Bronx 9% 21% 62% 7% 9% 31% 47% 12% Manhattan 17% 27% 41% 14% Queens 18% 24% 50% 7% Staten Isl.* 14% 38% 48% 0% Liberal 17% 31% 41% 11% Moderate 11% 26% 51% 11% *Small sample size, minor statistical significance. Conservative 7% 15% 73% 5% 12 Swing 10% 28% 55% 6% Q.4 What are the two most important problems facing your community today that you’d like your Mayor to work on? (open-ended)

30% 28%

21% 20% 17% 15% 14% 12% 11% 10%

0% Crime/Gang Jobs/Economy Education/Schools Affordable Police-Community Homelessness Mass Transit Violence/Guns Housing Relations

13 Q.5 Experience vs. Fresh Face Breakdown Experience Fresh Und Thinking about the next Mayor of City, would you prefer Face someone who has years of government experience and a track record in city politics or someone new to city government who will be a fresh Male 48% 33% 19% face and bring a new perspective to City Hall? Female 49% 27% 23% Age 18-29 33% 26% 40% Age 30-39 42% 36% 20% Age 40-49 44% 35% 21% Undecided Age 50-64 49% 27% 23% 22% Age 65+ 55% 28% 17% Experience White 49% 28% 22% 49% Black 50% 28% 22% Hispanic 45% 36% 18% Fresh Face 29% Asian* 41% 38% 21% Bronx 50% 35% 15% Brooklyn 49% 30% 21% Manhattan 55% 22% 22% Queens 44% 35% 21% Staten Isl.* 23% 22% 51% Liberal 52% 24% 24% Moderate 49% 34% 18% *Small sample size, minor statistical significance. Conservative 30% 52% 17% 14 Swing 44% 37% 19% How Do Democratic Voters View The Candidates?

15 Q.6-13 Personal Favorabilities

59% 60% 50% 46%

38% 38% 40% 36%

25% 22% 20%

0%

-8% -8% -10% -11% -11% -16% -20% -18% -26% Yang Stringer Adams McGuir Donovan Wiley Garcia Morales -40% e

Yang’s favorability rating is majority positive across demos, but there is a net 16% gender gap with Yang more popular among men. Yang also scores a higher favorability rating among Black voters and voters outside of Manhattan. 16 The Race for NYC Mayor

17 Q.14 Uninformed Ballot

DK/Ref 3% Morales 3% Undecided 23% Donovan 6%

McGuire 6% Yang 21%

Garcia 4% Adams Stringer 14% 14% Wiley 6%

18 Q.14 Uninformed Ballot Demo Yang Adams Stringer Wiley Garcia McGuire Donovan Morales Und

Total 21% 14% 14% 6% 4% 6% 6% 3% 23% Male 22% 13% 13% 6% 5% 5% 8% 1% 24% Female 20% 14% 14% 7% 3% 7% 6% 3% 23%

Age 18-29 29% 11% 22% 10% 0% 6% 0% 12% 5% Age 30-39 27% 8% 13% 9% 5% 4% 2% 3% 3%

Age 40-49 29% 16% 10% 7% 2% 5% 3% 2% 3% Yang & Adams tied among seniors – plurality of Age 50-64 19% 13% 17% 7% 5% 2% 6% 2% 2% electorate Age 65+ 16% 17% 11% 4% 3% 11% 12% 1% 3% White 14% 12% 17% 8% 6% 6% 8% 4% 4% Black 22% 23% 7% 7% 3% 9% 4% 1% 2% Hispanic 26% 10% 12% 8% 3% 4% 8% 4% 2% Asian* 46% 12% 10% 0% 0% 5% 4% 0% 3%

Bronx 33% 11% 5% 5% 1% 5% 10% 1% 27% Stringer maintains leads Brooklyn 19% 17% 11% 8% 4% 8% 3% 2% 27% Manhattan 17% 11% 22% 9% 4% 8% 9% 4% 15% Queens 21% 15% 15% 3% 4% 5% 8% 1% 24% 50%+ of Yang swings start Staten Isl.* 30% 11% 3% 9% 0% 6% 0% 0% 41% off undecided. Liberal 20% 10% 19% 9% 5% 5% 6% 5% 20% Moderate 24% 16% 10% 4% 2% 7% 7% 1% 29% *Small sample size, Conserv. 26% 19% 6% 1% 3% 9% 6% 2% 27% minor statistical significance. Swing 0% 13% 4% 5% 7% 5% 10% 0% 56% 19 Q.15 Uninformed Ballot: Rank your top five choices for NYC Mayor in the June Democratic Primary election Candidate 1 2 3 4 5 N=600 N=339 N=247 N=124 N=63 15% of Adams’ first- Andrew Yang 21% 14% 16% 11% 6% choice voters are Yang second-choice voters; but 28% are Stringer Eric Adams 14% 16% 15% 10% 16% second-choice, and 16% are Wiley second- Scott Stringer choice 15% 19% 16% 9% 0%

Maya Wiley 16% of Stringer’s first- 7% 16% 11% 14% 11% choice voters are Yang second-choice voters; Kathryn Garcia but 19% are Adams 4% 9% 11% 13% 21% second-choice voters, 25% are Wiley and 21% Ray McGuire are Garcia 5% 13% 14% 13% 17% 20% of Wiley’s first- Shaun Donovan 7% 9% 10% 22% 11% choice voters are Yang second-choice voters; 33% of McGuire’s and Dianne Morales 2% 4% 7% 8% 18% 23% of Donovan’s

Undecided 19% 0%

20 Q.16 Informed Ballot Descriptors

{Andrew Yang} Some say Andrew Yang will bring a fresh perspective to City Hall. A non-profit executive and entrepreneur, Yang will tackle the most pressing problems facing our city with innovative solutions and won’t answer to the city’s political machine. As mayor, Yang will champion direct cash assistance to New Yorkers and a focus on bringing our economy back and helping small businesses and the sectors hit hardest by the pandemic. {69 words}

Others say Andrew Yang is barely a New Yorker who fled the city during COVID-19. He isn’t a serious candidate, has no grasp of city government or politics, battled with the teachers union and made concerning comments about a woman’s right to choose. {43 words}

{Eric Adams} Some say Eric Adams has the experience to make our city stronger and better for everyone. Currently the Brooklyn Borough President, and previously a state senator, Adams is a lifelong New Yorker with working class roots. He survived police brutality to become an NYPD Captain, as a Black man. Adams is running for mayor to tackle our city’s failed education system, gun violence, housing and healthcare affordability and fix an inefficient city government. {73 words}

Others say Eric Adams is a former Republican who is too conservative to share our Democratic values. He has a big mouth and a history of making insensitive and politically incorrect statements. {32 words}

{Scott Stringer} Some say Scott Stringer will use his decades of experience in public service to lead us out of the COVID-19 crisis. Stringer exposed waste and mismanagement as City Comptroller and fought for affordable housing and tackled school overcrowding as Manhattan Borough President. As Mayor, he will implement a comprehensive city-run childcare program, tackle climate change, housing affordability, and bring our economy back. {62 words}

Others say Scott Stringer is a machine politician who has been cutting backroom deals to get ahead for the last 30 years, with little to show for it. And he’s a flip-flopper, with his political positions shifting with the wind. {40 words}

{Maya Wiley} Some say Maya Wiley is a nationally recognized racial justice advocate. As Counsel to Mayor de Blasio, she fought for civil and immigrant rights, and supported women and minority owned businesses. Wiley served as Chair of the Civilian Complaint Review Board where she investigated police misconduct. A Legal Analyst for NBC News, she is a fierce advocate for social, economic and racial justice. She would be the first black woman to be Mayor. {73 words}

Others say Maya Wiley is a de Blasio puppet who will repeat his worst mistakes. She talks a big game on civil rights and racial equality but failed to achieve any justice for victims of police brutality while head of the Civilian Complaint Review Board, including the killing of Eric Garner. {51 words}

21 Q.16 Informed Ballot Descriptors cont’d.

{Kathryn Garcia} Some say Kathryn Garcia is a lifelong New Yorker and public servant who has been the go-to crisis manager for our toughest moments. During COVID-19, she created an emergency food program, she led us through Hurricane Sandy, protected children from lead poisoning in public housing, and served as Sanitation Commissioner. Garcia knows how to get things done and is running for mayor to create a better city for all. {69 words}

Others say Kathryn Garcia is a lifelong bureaucrat without any of the real political experience needed to run a city like New York. She claims to be a problem-solver but has a history of cutting and running when the going gets tough, quitting under de Blasio during COVID-19. {48 words}

{Ray McGuire} Some say Ray McGuire has shattered glass ceilings his entire life. A Black child raised by a single mother, McGuire came from the humblest roots to graduate from Harvard, work on Wall Street and rise to the Board room at Citigroup. McGuire has the skills needed to run the city efficiently, get our economy back on track and tackle major problems, from schools and affordable housing to improving our quality of life. {72 words}

Others say Ray McGuire is a Wall Street multi-millionaire who is completely out of touch with regular New Yorkers and the challenges they face. The last thing we need right now is another corporate figurehead who will use the office to further enrich his millionaire and billionaire friends while doing little to help everyday people. {55 words}

{Shaun Donovan} Some say Shaun Donovan is a proven leader and manager who served as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development under President Obama. Donovan will use his ties to President Biden to move forward. {36 words}

Others say Shaun Donovan was part of the Bloomberg administration’s biggest failures including the affordable housing crisis and the spike in homelessness. {22 words}

{Dianne Morales} Some say Dianne Morales is a former public school teacher and current non-profit executive, Morales is a progressive running for mayor to bring dignity, care and solidarity to City Hall. {30 words}

Others say Dianne Morales is too left-wing to be mayor. We need competent leader, not leftist idealogues. {17 words}

22 Q.16 Informed Ballot

DK/Ref 2% Morales 5% Undecided 17% Donovan 8%

McGuire 5% Yang 20% Garcia 5% Wiley 7% Adams Stringer 17% 14%

23 Q.16 Informed Ballot Demo Yang Adams Stringer Wiley Garcia McGuire Donovan Morales Und Statistical tie

Total 20% 17% 14% 7% 5% 5% 8% 5% 17% Male 19% 18% 14% 8% 4% 5% 8% 4% 18% Female 20% 17% 14% 7% 5% 6% 8% 5% 16%

Age 18-29 27% 17% 22% 13% 0% 0% 0% 16% 0% Age 30-39 24% 8% 14% 18% 6% 6% 6% 6% 8%

Age 40-49 25% 19% 11% 8% 6% 6% 6% 3% 16% Yang & Adams still tied among seniors – plurality of Age 50-64 21% 17% 15% 6% 5% 3% 4% 4% 25% electorate Age 65+ 16% 21% 12% 2% 5% 7% 14% 4% 16% White 16% 13% 18% 8% 7% 5% 7% 7% 17% Black 20% 23% 7% 10% 2% 9% 6% 4% 18% Hispanic 19% 17% 14% 7% 6% 3% 7% 6% 16% Asian* 46% 12% 10% 0% 0% 5% 4% 0% 22% Stringer still maintains Bronx 26% 20% 6% 8% 1% 6% 13% 1% 15% leads among white & Manhattan voters Brooklyn 17% 20% 11% 9% 7% 3% 5% 5% 18% Manhattan 18% 12% 21% 7% 7% 5% 11% 6% 14% Queens 22% 18% 15% 6% 2% 8% 7% 5% 17% Staten Isl.* 27% 13% 9% 0% 0% 6% 0% 13% 27% Liberal 19% 13% 18% 10% 6% 3% 6% 6% 16% Moderate 25% 20% 11% 5% 2% 6% 10% 3% 17% *Small sample size, Conserv. 24% 26% 6% 1% 5% 9% 8% 2% 16% minor statistical significance. Swing 29% 15% 6% 4% 4% 3% 11% 2% 26% 24 Q.27 RCV Simulation

Round 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Candidate While Adams is closing Yang the gap with Yang in 35% 36% 36% 40% 43% 48% 61% the horse race, an RCV simulation, which Stringer removes undecideds, 18% 19% 20% 21% 24% 28% 39% shows Stringer as a viable opponent Adams 15% 15% 15% 17% 19% 23%

Wiley 8% 11% 12% 13% 14%

Donovan 8% 8% 8% 9%

McGuire 6% 6% 7%

Garcia 5% 5%

Morales 5%

*N in RCV simulation is consistent with N in Q27; Percentages are different as undecideds were removed. 25 Who are Yang’s 2nd Choice Voters?

Scattered Throughout the Electorate

• Voters who choose Yang as their 2nd choice for NYC Mayor.

• On the uninformed and final ballots, in our poll Yang does not receive the plurality of 2nd choice votes, earning less 2nd choice support than Stringer, Adams and Wiley, although Yang leads in 3rd choice ballots, and favorability, indicating there is room to grow.

• There is no significant pop across gender, age, race, borough, religion, education level, or union membership. That is to say, the Yang 2nd choice voters are scattered throughout the electorate.

• The recommendation is to go after these scattered Yang 2nd choice voters by communicating the messages that resonate most with them: Mass transit, schools and healthcare.

26 Thank you

Jake Dilemani Managing Director 212.681.1380 [email protected]

www.mercuryllc.com

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