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Risks from Climate Feedbacks POSTNOTE Number 454 January 2014 Risks from Climate Feedbacks Overview Feedbacks in the climate system can either increase or decrease the rate of global warming. Although knowledge of climate feedbacks is increasing, there remains uncertainty about the scale of many of their impacts. In aggregate, climate feedbacks will likely The Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC cause additional carbon to be released into concluded that human activities are causing the atmosphere, increasing the risk of the climate to warm, but there is uncertainty in exceeding a 2˚C rise in global temperatures. how the climate will continue to change. If human carbon emissions are reduced Climate feedbacks could both increase and beyond existing commitments, it may reduce decrease global warming. This POSTnote the impacts of additional atmospheric discusses what climate feedbacks are, as well carbon from climate feedbacks. as the challenges they present for climate A better understanding of climate feedbacks change mitigation policies. could reduce uncertainty of how the climate will respond to future warming. What is a Climate Feedback? Feedbacks in the Climate System The climate is a system of interacting components that Climate feedbacks may be divided into those involving includes the atmosphere, land and oceans. Feedbacks physical components of the climate system and those between components of the climate system can either involving the Earth’s carbon cycle. increase the rate of global warming, or decrease the rate of global warming. A climate feedback is a change to a Physical Climate Feedbacks component of the climate system that causes a knock-on Physical feedbacks involve physical components of the effect which further alters the original change. climate system such as glaciers and the Earth’s surface. Of An amplifying feedback (also referred to as a ‘positive the many physical feedbacks, two well known examples are feedback’) increases the rate of global warming. For discussed below: example, as the climate warms it will cause snow to melt exposing the land underneath. The darker land absorbs Water Vapour Feedback more sunlight than the highly reflective white snow so the As the climate warms the atmosphere is able to hold more Earth heats up quicker. This causes more snow melt, water. Water vapour is a greenhouse gas which causes the exposing more land which results in even more warming. climate to warm in a manner similar to CO2. Consequently, a A diminishing feedback (also referred to as a ‘negative warmer climate leads to more atmospheric water vapour 2 feedback’) decreases the rate of global warming. For and more warming. The water vapour feedback is significant as it causes the climate to warm twice as much example, an increase in CO2 in the atmosphere will allow 3 plant growth rates to increase. This will reduce the rate at as it would if the feedback were not to occur. Because this feedback is relatively well understood, it is considered well which CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere thereby 2 decreasing the rate of global warming. represented in all climate models (Box 1). Albedo (Reflectivity) Feedback To avoid the worst effects of climate change, many nations This amplifying feedback occurs due to the different abilities agree global warming should be limited to 2˚C above pre- 1 of light and dark surfaces to absorb sunlight. Ice and snow industrial levels. Climate feedbacks may cause difficulties are highly reflective and consequently absorb little sunlight; when trying to stay within this target, although it remains while the darker surfaces of the land and ocean absorb uncertain to what extent. The Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, 7 Millbank, London SW1P 3JA T 020 7219 2840 E [email protected] www.parliament.uk/post POSTnote 454 January 2014 Risks from Climate Feedbacks Page 2 break down plant and animal matter, which causes more Box 1. Models and Climate Feedbacks By emitting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, humans are carbon to be released into the atmosphere, warming the changing a component of the climate system. As the climate is a climate further leading to further carbon release. The soil global system, scientists are limited in the experiments they can carbon feedback is an amplifying feedback. conduct. Therefore, in order to understand how the climate may respond, scientists use mathematical models, based upon the laws of CO2 Fertilisation Feedback physics, to simulate the processes of the climate system. Components Changes in the climate system can cause carbon stores to of the model are then experimented on to understand their response. 4 increase. Plants require CO2 for photosynthesis, so they For the models to be useful, climate processes must be well increase their growth rates with increasing levels of characterised within the models. The underlying physics of physical atmospheric CO2. This reduces the rate at which carbon climate feedbacks are relatively well understood so they are accumulates in the atmosphere by increasing the amount of comparatively well represented in models. However, some carbon carbon stored in the vegetation and soil carbon stores. The cycle feedbacks are either poorly represented or omitted from climate CO2 fertilisation feedback is therefore a diminishing models because of uncertainties in their underlying biological and 5 feedback as it reduces the rate of global warming. geological processes. Some commentators have suggested that the under-representation or omission of feedbacks in climate models may result in inaccurate projections. This does not alter the fundamental Uncertainties in Climate Feedbacks model prediction that increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the The Fifth Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate atmosphere will cause the climate to warm, but it does increase Change, released in September 2013, stated that “warming uncertainty about the magnitude and speed of the warming. of the climate system is unequivocal” and that “human 4 influence on the climate system is clear”. However, there is more sunlight. As the climate warms, snow and ice melts, uncertainty about the future magnitude and speed of this 4 exposing the darker land and ocean surfaces. This reduces warming. The uncertainty in future predictions occurs partly the Earth’s reflectivity (albedo) causing more sunlight to be because of uncertainties in how climate processes, 4 absorbed, further warming and further ice and snow melt. including climate feedbacks operate (Box 1). Carbon Cycle Climate Feedbacks Uncertainties in Physical Feedbacks Feedbacks involving components of the carbon cycle are Although comparatively well understood compared to termed carbon cycle feedbacks. How carbon is moved carbon cycle feedbacks, uncertainty remains for some 6 between the atmosphere, land and oceans by a variety of physical feedbacks including the cloud feedback and the 7 chemical and biological processes, such as conversion into Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) feedback . The PDO rocks and photosynthesis, is referred to as the carbon cycle. feedback refers to the circulation of cold and warm waters around the Pacific. The latest research suggests that the CO2 and methane are carbon-based greenhouse gases that contribute significantly to global warming. Consequently, the diminishing PDO feedback may explain the recent period of movement of carbon around the global carbon cycle has a lower than expected warming by increasing the length of the 7 critical role in determining the impacts of carbon-based La Niña cooling period (See POSTnote 400). greenhouse gases on the climate.4 Cloud Feedback Carbon Stores Clouds can both warm and cool the climate and the sum of Within the carbon cycle, accumulations of carbon are called these effects determines whether clouds result in a net 8 carbon stores. These are either active or inactive: cooling or warming effect. Both high and low clouds reflect Inactive carbon stores, such as oil and gas fields, are so the sun’s radiation back into space, causing the Earth to described because the carbon within them will not move cool, and trap heat, preventing it from being lost into space. between other parts of the carbon system for millions of Low clouds trap less heat than they reflect so they have a years, unless accessed by humans. cooling effect on the climate, while high clouds trap more 8 Active carbon stores, such as vegetation, are so heat than they reflect so they have a warming effect. described because the carbon within them is available to Although the cooling and warming properties of different the wider carbon cycle within a relatively short time clouds are well understood, there is uncertainty about how period, such as when a tree dies or is damaged. climate change will influence the height of clouds.6 Most Carbon cycle feedbacks affect the movement of carbon models suggest the feedback will be amplifying as the around the carbon cycle, as well as the size and stability of height of clouds will increase in a warmer world.8 However, carbon stores. There are many different carbon cycle some models predict the feedback will have little overall feedbacks, two are outlined below: amplifying effect. No models predict the cloud feedback to Soil Carbon Feedback be net diminishing. Dead plants and animals are partly comprised of carbon. Soils are a significant store of active carbon as they can Uncertainties in Carbon Cycle Feedbacks contain large amounts of dead plants and animals. Micro- Uncertainties exist about how carbon cycle feedbacks will organisms in the soil break down the dead plant and animal influence the movement of carbon to and from carbon matter and release carbon into the atmosphere. Warmer stores. This uncertainty is greater than that for physical temperatures increase the rate at which micro-organisms feedbacks as the biological and chemical processes of the POSTnote 454 January 2014 Risks from Climate Feedbacks Page 3 carbon cycle are less well understood than the physical CO2 Fertilisation Feedback 9 processes of the physical feedbacks.
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