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Making Redevelopment Viable: Reduction of Risks to Developers by Urban Renewal Authority in Hong Kong

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Making Redevelopment Viable: Reduction of Risks to Developers by Urban Renewal Authority in Hong Kong Lee, Mei Fun Rowena (2011) Making redevelopment viable: reduction of risks to developers by Urban Renewal Authority in Hong Kong. PhD thesis. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/3397/ Copyright and moral rights for this thesis are retained by the author A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the Author The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the Author When referring to this work, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given Glasgow Theses Service http://theses.gla.ac.uk/ [email protected] Making Redevelopment Viable - Reduction of Risks to Developers by Urban Renewal Authority in Hong Kong - 1 volume Submitted by LEE Mei Fun Rowena BA (Hons.) and BPl (Postgraduate) Submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Urban Studies Faculty of Social and Political Sciences University of Glasgow Deposition to the Library In May 2012 SYNOPSIS OF THESIS The research presents the findings on developers' views of the major risk factors, risks pricing and risks management on redevelopment. Developers bear and manage a lot of risks. Up to date, academic research has focused primarily on the normative or 'should be' aspect of developers' decisions. This study attempts to fill in the gap unravelling the behavioural aspects of their decisions that truly reflect developers' actions in the current market conditions in practice. This research makes use of research instruments such as questionnaires, interviews and focus groups, prior to the development of conjoint analysis to delve deeper into developers' trade-offs of risk factors. Findings of the research with particular reference to the context of Hong Kong, a high density built environment, suggest profits and the uncertainty of obtaining the profits are the main factors. Planning procedures is also an important risk noting the recent amendments to the Town Planning Ordinance in Hong Kong allowing wider public SDUWLFLSDWLRQZKLFKLQWXUQLQFUHDVHGHYHORSHUV¶ULVNV6WDWHDFWLRQWKURXJKWKHTXDQJRthe Urban Renewal Authority (URA), is not a concern to developers as they prefer and can redevelop on their own without being tied up by the bureaucracy associated with partnering with URA. Other factors such as the macroeconomic and market conditions, lease aspect, land assembly, public engagement and relation with stakeholders are not significant. The findings of the present research add to the current knowledge and understanding of how best developers should manage risks in redevelopment. As a result of such awareness and insight, it is hoped that developers would be better able to design and implement more financially viable and better redevelopment schemes. This will in the long term facilitate the pace of redevelopment in Hong Kong; and provide insights into redevelopment elsewhere, especially in high density built environments worldwide, such as New York. The Thesis is dedicated to my dear mother and father, my Saviour Jesus Christ, those who love me and those who suffer. TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER ONE : INTRODUCTION TO RESEARCH Page 1.1 Background of the Research 8 1.2 Aims and Objectives 9 1.3 Organisation of the Thesis 10 PART I BACKGROUND AND METHODOLOGY CHAPTER TWO : HONG KONG AS A CASE STUDY : THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS, DEVELOPERS, URBAN RENEWAL AUTHORITY (URA) 2.1 Introduction 14 2.2 Background Facts about Hong Kong 14 2.3 Real Estate Development Sector in Hong Kong 19 2.4 Government approval processes and redevelopment in Hong Kong 27 2.5 Difficulties in Redevelopment in Hong Kong 32 2.6 Urban Redevelopment in Hong Kong with particular reference to URA 39 in Hong Kong 2.7 Conclusion 52 CHAPTER THREE : RISKS OF REDEVELOPMENT 3.1 Introduction 53 3.2 The Pricing of Land 54 - Bid-Rent Curves - Land Rent in Land Market - Consumer Choice and Utility Functions - Redevelopment of Individual Sites 3.3 The Property Market and Redevelopment 65 - Importance of Property Market - Property Market Characteristics - Redevelopment Sub-market - The Development Cycle 3.4 Developers and Other Agents 72 3.5 Property Development Process 79 3.6 Main Risks of Redevelopment Schemes 87 3.7 Risks in the Development Process 88 3.8 Land Use planning as Risks 91 3.9 Perception of Redevelopment Risks by different types of Developers 94 3.10 Conclusion 96 CHAPTER FOUR : DEVELOPERS¶ RISKS PRICING 4.1 Introduction 97 4.2 Relevance of neo-classical model to this research 98 4.3 Attitude towards risks 98 4.4 Developers' risks pricing ± deficiency of neo-classical model 100 4.5 Redevelopment areas 112 4.6 Behavioural approach to understanding decision-making of developers 114 4.7 How firms & organisations make choices 122 4.8 Conclusion 133 CHAPTER FIVE : DEVELOPERS¶ MANAGEMENT STRATEGY ON RISKS 5.1 Introduction 134 5.2 Transaction costs theory, including institutional economics 135 5.3 Risks management measures ± Macro point of view : 138 the Government¶s actions based on the institutional approach. 5.4 Risks management measures ± Micro point of view 143 employed by developers in a redevelopment market context. 5.5 Risk Management Measures ± Case Study of the Urban Renewal 148 Authority (URA) in Hong Kong. 5.6 Research Questions 156 5.7 Conclusion 156 CHAPTER SIX : RESEARCH METHODS ±FOCUS GROUPS AND INTERVIEWS; CONJOINT ANALYSIS 6.1 Introduction 158 6.2 Research Aims and Objectives 159 6.3 Research Questions 162 6.4 Methodological Implications of the Research 164 6.5 Social Research Strategies 165 6.6 Quantitative and Qualitative Approaches 169 6.7 Mixed Methods Research 171 6.8 Pragmatic reasons for mixing methods 173 6.9 Research Stages 179 6.10 Stage I ± Background 179 6.11 Stage II ± Field Work : Focus Group and Interviews 179 6.12 Stage III - Conjoint Analysis, the main research instrument 186 PART II RISKS OF DEVELOPERS ± IN PRACTICE CHAPTER SEVEN : FINDINGS ± FOCUS GROUPS AND INTERVIEWS 7.1 Introduction 205 7.2 Fresh insight and those issues particularly related to Hong Kong 207 7.2.1 Development Process and Government Intervention 207 7.2.2 Land Acquisition and Importance of Land Bank 211 7.2.3 Effectiveness of URA Actions 214 7.2.4 Profits and Uncertainty; Risks and Pricing 218 7.2.5 Comparison of Risks of Redevelopment : Hong Kong vs China 225 and the way forward for Hong Kong 7.3 Issues widely known 228 7.4 Conclusion 231 CHAPTER EIGHT : CONJOINT FINDINGS 8.1 Research Questions and Methods; Nature of the Study 233 8.2 The Model 235 8.3 Modelling Results 237 8.4 Simulation 245 8.5 Overall Effects of the Simulation 254 8.6 Discussions and Conclusions 257 CHAPTER NINE : CONCLUSIONS OF THIS RESEARCH 9.1 Introduction 259 9.2 Research Aims and Main Findings 259 9.3 Research Implications 263 9.4 Policy Implications 265 9.5 Recommendations 271 9.6 Final Summary 272 List of appendices Appendix Topic I Developers II Government Approval Process for Redevelopment in Hong Kong III Planning Application Process for the Developer IV Tenders and Letters A & B V The URA ± Supplementary Details VI Planning Procedures stipulated in the URAO VII Checklist of Risk Management Measures undertaken by Developers VIII Data Management and Analysis Design IX Focus Group/Interview Guide and Sample of Interview Forms X Sample of Conjoint Interview Screen Shots XI Meaning of the terms for Modeling Result in Section 8.3 List of tables Table Topic 2.1 Area of Hong Kong 14 2.11 *RYHUQPHQW¶VPDMRULQWHUYHQWLRQLQWKHSURSHUW\ 29 development market since 1978 3.9 Sources and techniques of finance 85 4.4 A simplified probability table 110 4.5 Input for Monte Carlo Analysis 111 6.1 Research Areas and Research Scope 161 6.3 Research Area and Research Questions 163 6.6 Positivism 167 6.7 Fundamental differences between quantitative and 170 qualitative research strategies 6.8 The main quantitative and qualitative research methods 170 6.9 Ways of combining quantitative and qualitative research 172 6.10 Research Questions and the choice of research methods in 176 relation to the Methodological Implications List of figures/plates Figure/Plate Topic 2.2 Map of Hong Kong 15 2.3 Route map from www.MTR.com.hk 15 2.4 Hong Kong Facts ± Demographic and Geographic 16 2.5 Political Structure in Hong Kong 17 2.6 Facts about Economic Performance of Hong Kong 18 2.7 China and Hong Kong 18 2.8 Profile of Hong Kong Real Estate Companies: December 23 2004 2.9 7KH5DWHRI5HGHYHORSPHQWRI+RQJ.RQJ¶V'LUHFW5HDO 28 Estate - Residential 2.10 7KH5DWHRI5HGHYHORSPHQWRI+RQJ.RQJ¶V'LUHFW5HDO 28 Estate ± Non-Residential 2.12 Government planning approval required for the 31 Redevelopment Process (Private Sector) in Hong Kong 3.1 Bid-rent curves 55 3.2 The components of commercial land rent in a competitive 56 market 3.3 Indifference Curve with a Budget Constraint 60 3.4 The maximum economic life of a building 62 3.5 Annual Return and Capital Value of a building in current 63 use over time 3.6 Capital Value of a cleared site in new use upon 64 redevelopment 3.7 User and Investment Market 68 3.8 Distinction between Equity and Debt Finance as well as 84 between project and corporate funding 4.1 Present Value of income and expenditure 105 4.2 Sensitivity analysis by developers 108 4.3 Scenarios 109 4.6 Histogram for Monte Carlo Analysis 111 6.2 The Selection and Development of Research Questions 162 6.4 Relationship between Research Themes and 163 Methodological Implications 6.5 Identification of Research Methods 164 6.12 Major stages of the Research 179 Chapter 1: Overview of the Study Chapter 1: Overview of the Study 1.1 Background to the Research 1.1.1 Relevance of and interest in topic At the time of writing this introduction, one of Hong Kong¶s 5-storey dilapidated terrace buildings fell to rubble with 4 people confirmed dead.
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