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Resilience (Volume 2, 2018) Domains of Resilience for Complex Interconnected Systems RESOURCE GUIDE Resilience (Volume 2, 2018) Domains of resilience for complex interconnected systems. An edited collection of authored pieces IRGC’s mission includes developing risk governance concepts and providing policy advice to decision-makers in the private and public sectors on key emerging or neglected issues. The EPFL International Risk Governance Center (IRGC@EPFL) organises IRGC activities, emphasising the role of risk governance for issues marked by complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity, and focusing on the creation of appropriate policy and regulatory environments for new technology where risk issues may be important. https://irgc.epfl.ch The International Risk Governance Council (IRGC Foundation) is an independent non-profit foundation whose purpose it is to help improve the understanding and governance of systemic risks that have impacts on human health and safety, the environment, the economy and society at large. https://irgc.org/ This publication must be cited as: Trump, B. D., Florin, M.-V., & Linkov, I. (Eds.). (2018). IRGC resource guide on resilience (vol. 2): Domains of resilience for complex interconnected systems. Lausanne: EPFL International Risk Governance Center (IRGC). DOI: 10.5075/epfl-irgc-262527 Available from: irgc.epfl.ch Authorisation to reproduce IRGC material is granted under the condition of full acknowledgment of IRGC as a source. No right to reproduce figures whose original author is not IRGC. For any questions, please contact: [email protected] © EPFL International Risk Governance Center, 2018 ISBN 978-2-9701188-1-7 Preface to Volume 2 of the IRGC Resource Guide on Resilience IRGC's work includes diverse activities and publications with the aim to improve the governance of systemic or emerging risks, when complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity complicate analysis and decisions. As a property of systems and a dynamic process to improve the capacity of a system to prepare for, rebound after and recover from shocks and disruptions, as well as adapt to changing context conditions, resilience is an important tool in the toolbox of risk managers and decision- makers. Resilience is particularly attractive to those confronted to the need to make expensive investments to avoid potential catastrophic consequences, and to the limitations of conventional risk management. In 2016 IRGC took the initiative of publishing a first web-based 'Resource Guide on Resilience' for researchers and practitioners: Volume 1. The resource guide is a collection of authored pieces that review existing concepts, approaches and illustrations or case studies for comparing, contrasting and integrating risk and resilience, and for developing resilience. Volume 1 emphasised the need to develop ways to measure resilience. https://www.irgc.org/irgc-resource-guide-on-resilience/ In November 2018, following new interesting and useful developments in the field, IRGC publishes Volume 2. Volume 2 provides an in-depth and pragmatic evaluation of concepts and methods for resilience- based approaches in contrast to risk-based approaches, as proposed and practised in different domains of science and practice. Adequate articulation of risk and resilience is key to ensure security in systems. The guide also considers possible drawbacks of resilience, such as if efforts to improve resilience diverts attention from core functions of risk management, or from the need to discourage inappropriate risk-seeking behaviour. Some of the papers in Volume 2 also discuss the relevance and role of resilience as a strategy to address the challenges posed by systemic risks that develop in complex adaptive systems (CAS). Such systems are interconnected, with the result that risks can cascade within and between systems. Resilience can help navigate dynamic changes in CAS, as those evolve in response to internal and external shocks and stresses. https://irgc.epfl.ch/risk-governance/projects-resilience/ Dr Benjamin Trump (ORISE Fellow, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center), Marie- Valentine Florin (IRGC) and Dr Igor Linkov (Carnegie Mellon University; US Army Engineer Research and Development Center) served as coordinators and editors for this collection of authored pieces, with the help of Marcel Bürkler and Anca G. Rusu. We hope that researchers and practitioners will find the guide relevant to their needs. 3 Contents An Introduction to 2nd Volume of the Resource Guide on Resilience .............................................................. 6 Igor Linkov, Marie-Valentine Florin, Benjamin D. Trump A Janus-Faced Resource: Social Capital and Resilience Trade-Offs ................................................................ 13 Daniel P. Aldrich, Courtney Page-Tan and Timothy Fraser Ecological Resilience ...................................................................................................................................... 20 Craig R. Allen and Dirac Twidwell From Security to Resilience: New Vistas for International Responses to Protracted Crises ........................... 25 Rosanne Anholt and Kees Boersma The Importance of Resilience-Based Strategies in Risk Analysis, and Vice Versa ............................................ 33 Terje Aven and Shital Thekdi Resilience as an Integrative, Measurable Concept for Humanitarian and Development Programming .......... 39 Christopher B. Barrett and Joanna B. Upton Resilience to Global Catastrophe ................................................................................................................... 47 Seth D. Baum Conceptualizing Risk and Unit Resilience in a Military Context ...................................................................... 53 Colanda R. Cato, Shala N. Blue and Bridget Boyle Resilience in the Context of Systemic Risks: Perspectives from IRGC's Guidelines for the Governance of Systemic Risks ................................................................................................................................................ 60 Marie-Valentine Florin and Benjamin D. Trump Resilience Analysis of Urban Critical Infrastructure: A human-Centred View of Resilience ........................... 69 Kazuo Furuta and Taro Kanno Robustness and Reconfigurability – Key Concepts to Build Resilience ........................................................... 74 Hans Rudolf Heinimann Resilience of Systems to Individual Risk and Systemic Risk ............................................................................ 81 Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Gergely Boza, Célian Colon, Sebastian Poledna, Elena Rovenskaya and Ulf Dieckmann Technological Surprise and Resilience in Military Systems ............................................................................. 89 Alexander Kott Mindfulness and the Risk-Resilience Trade-off in Organizations .................................................................... 94 Ravi S. Kudesia and Jochen Reb, 4 Resilience and Robustness in Ecological Systems ......................................................................................... 102 Simon A. Levin Considerations of Resilience Management in Transportation ...................................................................... 107 Maria Nogal and Alan O’Connor Resilience: Moving Forward from a Metaphor ............................................................................................. 111 José Palma-Oliveira and Benjamin D. Trump Resilience Assessment in Homeland Security............................................................................................... 118 Frédéric Petit Unlocking Organizational Resilience ............................................................................................................ 127 Elaine D. Pulakos and Derek Lusk Advances in Analyzing and Measuring Dynamic Economic Resilience .......................................................... 133 Adam Rose and Noah Dormady The Case for Systemic Resilience: Urban Communities in Natural Disasters................................................ 141 Božidar Stojadinović Resilience of Critical Infrastructure Systems: Policy, Research Projects and Tools ...................................... 147 Marianthi Theocharidou, Luca Galbusera and Georgios Giannopoulos Resilience Analytics by Separation of Enterprise Schedules: Applications to Infrastructure ......................... 160 Heimir Thorisson and James H. Lambert Resilience is a Verb ...................................................................................................................................... 167 David D. Woods Managing Energy Transition Through Dynamic Resilience ........................................................................... 173 Martin Young and Angela Wilkinson 5 An Introduction to 2nd Volume of the Resource Guide on Resilience Igor Linkovi*, Marie-Valentine Florinii, Benjamin D. Trumpi *Corresponding author: [email protected] Society is increasingly reliant upon complex and interconnected systems to foster virtually all elements of modern life. From basic infrastructure to public health and medicine to business and finance, these systems are often predicated upon interdependencies in order to deliver better, faster, and less expensive services. Such interconnection has opened the door to incredible innovations in organizational and infrastructural operation yet has also left many critical and foundational societal systems at risk of systemic disruption. A growing area of inquiry to best prepare the complex infrastructural, social, and environmental systems which sustain
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