CFTC Patrick Mccarty Senate Banking Testimony:Appendix A
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How Much Globalization Is There in the World Stock Markets and Where Is It?
How much Globalization is there in the World Stock Markets and where is it? Gianni Nicolini University of Rome “Tor Vergata” Faculty of Economics Researcher in Banking and Finance [email protected] Ekaterina Dorodnyk University of Rome “Tor Vergata” Faculty of Economics PhD in Banking and Finance – PhD Candidate [email protected] ABSTRACT Globalization, as the process of integration of national economies into the international economy through trade, foreign direct investment, capital flows, migration and the spread of technology, has been analyzed by academic literature in different manners. Anyway a comprehensive analysis in a worldwide perspective that compares all the main stock markets' performances in a long term period misses. In this paper, the authors try to fill this gap by a correlation analysis applied to stock exchange market indexes. This methodology is implemented in order to highlight the dynamic trend of financial market globalization. The paper investigates the degree of association of weekly returns for 53 international stock exchanges from 1995 to 2010 in a year-by-year approach, trying to evaluate how the average correlation through national stock indexes changed by the time. Moreover, an analysis of single geographical areas (North America and Canada, Latin America, Asia and Oceania, Northern Europe, Eastern Europe and Western Europe) has been done in order to test the hypothesis that globalization follows a homogenous (or heterogeneous) path. Results suggest an upward globalization trend that is developing at an increasing growth rate. Furthermore, an analysis of single geographical areas supports the hypothesis that globalization is a heterogeneous phenomena where different cluster of countries are engaged in different manners. -
RGB Perspectives July 12, 2021 Written by Rob Bernstein ([email protected]) RGB Capital Group LLC • 858-367-5200 •
RGB Perspectives July 12, 2021 Written by Rob Bernstein ([email protected]) RGB Capital Group LLC • 858-367-5200 • www.rgbcapitalgroup.com Not much has changed in the market over the last week with a divided stock market environment. The S&P 500 Index continues to trend up and closed at an all-time high on Friday. Many of the other major stock market indices, including the S&P 500 Index Dow Jones, Nasdaq Composite Index and the Nasdaq 100 have Six-Month Chart similar chart patterns and closed at all-time highs at the end of last week. Other segments of the market are stuck in intermediate-term trading ranges. These include the Russell 2000 Index, S&P 400 Index, NYSE Composite Index, and the Value Line Arithmetic Index. The Russell 2000 Index is at the same level it was at back in February. Russell 200 Index Six-Month Chart BAML High-Yield Master II Index Six-Month Chart In this type of environment where stocks are giving mixed signals, I use junk bonds to provide additional clues to the overall direction of the market as they are generally a good barometer of the overall health of the market. The BAML 50-Day Moving Average High-Yield Master II Index continues to trend up above its 50- day moving average on low volatility. While risk management is always important, it is more important in less certain market environments such as the stock market environment we are experiencing now. I continue to focus on risk management to different degrees in the RGB Capital Group investment strategies. -
A Primer on U.S. Stock Price Indices
A Primer on U.S. Stock Price Indices he measurement of the “average” price of common stocks is a matter of widespread interest. Investors want to know how “the Tmarket” is doing, and to be able to compare their returns with a meaningful benchmark. Money managers often have their compensation tied to performance, typically measured by comparing their results to a benchmark portfolio, so they and their clients are interested in the benchmark portfolio’s returns. And policymakers want to judge the potential for sudden adjustments in stock prices when differences from “fundamental value” emerge. The most widely quoted stock price index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has been supplemented by other popular indices that are constructed in a different way and pose fewer problems as a measure of stock prices. At present, a number of stock price indices are reported by the few companies that we will consider in this paper. Each of these indices is intended to be a benchmark portfolio for a different segment of the universe of common stocks. This paper discusses some of the issues in constructing and interpreting stock price indices. It focuses on the most widely used indices: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Stan- dard & Poor’s 500, the Russell 2000, the NASDAQ Composite, and the Wilshire 5000. The first section of this study addresses issues of construction and interpretation of stock price indices. The second section compares the movements of the five indices in the last two decades and investigates the Peter Fortune relationship between the returns on the reported indices and the return on “the market.” Our results suggest that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow 30) The author is a Senior Economist and has inherent problems in its construction. -
Monthly Economic Update
In this month’s recap: Stocks moved higher as investors looked past accelerating inflation and the Fed’s pivot on monetary policy. Monthly Economic Update Presented by Ray Lazcano, July 2021 U.S. Markets Stocks moved higher last month as investors looked past accelerating inflation and the Fed’s pivot on monetary policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.07 percent, but the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 2.22 percent. The Nasdaq Composite led, gaining 5.49 percent.1 Inflation Report The May Consumer Price Index came in above expectations. Prices increased by 5 percent for the year-over-year period—the fastest rate in nearly 13 years. Despite the surprise, markets rallied on the news, sending the S&P 500 to a new record close and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite higher.2 Fed Pivot The Fed indicated that two interest rate hikes in 2023 were likely, despite signals as recently as March 2021 that rates would remain unchanged until 2024. The Fed also raised its inflation expectations to 3.4 percent, up from its March projection of 2.4 percent. This news unsettled 3 the markets, but the shock was short-lived. News-Driven Rally In the final full week of trading, stocks rallied on the news of an agreement regarding the $1 trillion infrastructure bill and reports that banks had passed the latest Federal Reserve stress tests. Sector Scorecard 07072021-WR-3766 Industry sector performance was mixed. Gains were realized in Communication Services (+2.96 percent), Consumer Discretionary (+3.22 percent), Energy (+1.92 percent), Health Care (+1.97 percent), Real Estate (+3.28 percent), and Technology (+6.81 percent). -
Russell 2000® Index Measures the Performance of the Small-Cap US Equity Market Segment of the US Equity Universe
Index factsheet Russell 2000 Index About the index True representation of the The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small-cap US equity market segment of the US equity universe. The Russell 2000® Index is a subset Objective construction methodology of the Russell 3000® Index representing approximately 10% of the total Provides an unbiased, complete view of the US equity market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the market and underlying market segments smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current Modular market segmentation index membership. The Russell 2000® is constructed to provide a Distinct building blocks to provide insight into the comprehensive and unbiased small-cap barometer and is completely current state of the market and inform asset allocation reconstituted annually to ensure larger stocks do not distort the decisions performance and characteristics of the true small-cap opportunity set. Reliable maintenance and governance Disciplined, reliable maintenance process backed by a well-defined, balanced governance system ensures the Index characteristics indexes continue to accurately reflect the market (As of 7/31/2021) Russell 2000® Russell 3000® Tickers Price/Book 2.71 4.46 Russell 2000® Dividend Yield 0.99 1.26 Bloomberg PR RTY P/E Ex-Neg Earnings 19.25 24.71 Bloomberg TR RU20INTR EPS Growth - 5 Years 9.76 17.01 Reuters PR .RUT Number of Holdings 1,975 2,997 Reuters TR .RUTTU Market capitalization (in billions USD) (As of 7/31/2021) For more information, including a list of ETFs based on FTSE Russell Indexes, please call us or visit Russell 2000® Russell 3000® www.ftserussell.com Average Market Cap ($-WTD) $3.274 $478.338 The inception date of the Russell 2000® Index is Median Market Cap $1.193 $2.636 January 1, 1984. -
The Cross Border Financial Impact of Violent Events
THE CROSS-BORDER IMPACT OF VIOLENT EVENTS Mohamad Al-Ississ Harvard University April 2010 Abstract This paper argues that violent events have two economic effects: a direct loss from the destruction of physical and human capital, and a reallocation of financial and economic resources. It is the first to document the positive cross- border impact that follows violent events as a result of this reallocation. Thus, it reconciles the two existing perspectives in the literature on whether violence has a small or large economic effect. Our results show that, in globally integrated markets, the substitution of financial and economic activities away from afflicted countries magnifies their losses. Additionally, the paper evaluates the impact of certain geographic, political and financial country characteristics on the reallocation of capital. JEL codes: F20, F41, F43, G11, G14, G15, F36 Harvard Kennedy School of Government, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, MA 02138. [email protected]. All errors and opinions expressed herein are my own. This paper is copyrighted by the author. For permission to reproduce or to request a copy, contact the author The Cross-Border Impact of Violent Events 1 Introduction This paper investigates the cross-border financial impact of violence. It examines the global reallocation of capital in the wake of violent events, and analyzes its determinants. Consequently, this paper helps reconcile the divergent arguments in the existing discourse on the magnitude of the economic impact of violent events. It does so by highlighting the role played by interconnected financial and economic global markets. There is a dichotomy in the literature on the magnitude of the economic impact of terrorism and violence. -
Small Cap Is Active Management's Rightful Home
SMALL CAP IS ACTIVE MANAGEMENT’S RIGHTFUL HOME Recent trends show a growing willingness among investors to apply indexing’s logic farther down the market-cap ladder. But, when it comes to smaller companies, the indexing argument isn’t very convincing. Maintaining exposure to the small-cap “category” through an index-based product eliminates the chance to benefit in an area that, we contend, offers active managers with fundamentals-based strategies the most consistent and pronounced opportunity to generate excess return. PASSIVE INFLUX: FUNDS FORM THE FOUNDATION WHILE ETFS KEEP PILING ON… The Vanguard Group introduced the first index fund at the end of 1975 as a low-cost way for investors to gain exposure to the companies of the S&P 500 Index, which account for roughly 80 percent of the stock market’s total capitalization. The strategy initially attracted $11 million in assets under management. According to S&P Dow Jones Indices, more than $7.8 trillion is currently benchmarked to the S&P 500 Index, “with index assets comprising approximately $2.2 trillion of this total.” Other estimates put indexing’s reach at more than one out of every three shares outstanding among the index’s component companies. The emergence of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the first of which was launched in 1993 to track the S&P 500 Index, only adds momentum to passive investing’s growing presence within the equity market. Since 2008, when the SEC broadened the scope of allowable ETF strategies, the number of ETFs more than doubled to 1,594 through the end of 2015. -
Calamos Small Cap Market Snapshot
DATA AS OF 6/30/2021 WHAT’S NEW MARKET PULSE A little early…Last month, I made the bold prediction that the small cap MONTH-TO-DATE RETURNS correction was over. However, in June, they lagged by another 57 basis points R 2000 VALUE RUSSELL 2000 R 2000 GROWTH (Russell 2000 less Russell 1000). Falling 10-year Treasury yields during the last few weeks spooked many investors into rotating away from small caps. -0.61 1.94 4.69 R MICROCAP VALUE RUSSELL MICROCAP R MICROCAP GROWTH Even so, I’m not wavering. Small cap fundamentals continue to be rock-solid -0.63 2.19 6.36 and valuations versus large caps continue to look inexpensive, sitting at the 22nd percentile. In each of the past three small cap cycle peaks, valuations versus YEAR-TO-DATE RETURNS large caps surpassed the 83rd percentile. Small caps have a long way to go. I R 2000 VALUE RUSSELL 2000 R 2000 GROWTH conclude with an amazing small cap fact: since 1989, when small caps were up 26.69 17.54 8.98 more than 10% during the first six months of the year (the Russell 2000 was up R MICROCAP VALUE RUSSELL MICROCAP R MICROCAP GROWTH 17.5% in 1H 21), they continued to rise in the second half of the year, on average by another 12%. Buy the dip! 35.65 29.02 20.57 Brandon M. Nelson, CFA, Calamos Senior Portfolio Manager RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH VS. RUSSELL 1000 GROWTH RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH VS. S&P 500 GROWTH 300-DAY PERFORMANCE GICS SECTOR ALLOCATIONS (NET) 60% 50% Russell 2000 Growth 50% 40% S&P 500 Growth 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Past performance is not indicative of future results. -
Investing in the Marketplace
Investing in the Marketplace Prudential Retirement When you hear people talk about “the market,” you might think Did you know... we agree on what that means. Truth is, there are many indexes that represent differing segments of the market. And these …there is even indexes don’t always move in tandem. Understanding some of an index that the key ones can help you diversify your investments to better represent the economy as a whole. purports to track The Dow Jones Industrial Average (The Dow) is one of the oldest, most investor anxiety? well-know indexes and is often used to represent the economy as a Dubbed “The Fear whole. Truth is, though, The Dow only includes 30 stocks of the world’s largest, most influential companies. Why is it called an “average?” Index,” the proper Originally, it was computed by adding up the per-share price of its stocks, and dividing by the number of companies. name of the Chicago The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (made up of 500 of the most widely- Board Options traded U.S. stocks) is larger and more diverse than The Dow. Because it represents about 70% of the total value of the U.S. stock market, the Exchange’s index is S&P 500 is a better indication of how the U.S. marketplace is moving as a whole. the VIX Index, Sometimes referred to as the “total stock market index,” the Wilshire and measures the 5000 Index includes about 7,000 of the more than 10,000 publicly traded companies with headquarters in the U.S. -
Risk-Adjusted Return Monitor Summary & Views
a global macro investment newsletter by Neil Azous Morning Edition | October 12, 2018 Risk-Adjusted Return Monitor CROSS-ASSET FOREX FIXED INCOME EQUITIES COMMODITIES THEMATIC PAIRS India SENSEX EUR/CNY UK 5-Yr Gilt India SENSEX Soybean China Exposure EU Cyclicals vs Defensives Saudi Tadawul USD/TWD South Korea 10-Yr Saudi Tadawul Gold None EU Domestic vs EM Exposure * Highlights the largest overnight positive and negative risk-adjusted returns across 160+ market proxies Summary & Views Contents These Are Not The Droids You Are Looking For Summary & Views Top Observations . The Pedestrian View Tracking Portfolio . Our View – Mutual Funds Economic Data . Our View – Hedge Funds . Our View – Global Macro . Financial Conditions Tracking Portfolio Admin – Schedule Tracking Portfolio Twitter @sbstimestamp The next edition of Sight Beyond Sight will be delivered on Monday. Bloomberg MCRO <go> Any updates to the tracking portfolio will be sent via Twitter (@sbstimestamp) or Bloomberg (MCRO<go>). Links Subscribe Now! Newsroom View Archive Permissions/Reprints Connect Twitter @neilazous These Are Not The Droids You Are Looking For The Pedestrian View This is the 23rd correction greater than 5% in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) since the March 2009 low. The average correction is -9.3% and the median correction is -8.4%. The average VIX peak is 32.1 and median peak is 30.3. From the high-to-low, the S&P 500 fell 7.8%, and the VIX peaked at 28.84. Add in the drawdowns in other benchmarks – Russell 2000 Index (RTY) -11.29% and NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX) - 10.49% – and the dozens of intra-day indicators showing extremes, and it is easier to understand that the correction is largely complete. -
CME Level 1 Futures (Requires Subscription) (Rolled Over to the Active Contract Each Quarter)
All of the below Index symbols must be preceeded by "." CME Level 1 Futures (Requires Subscription) (Rolled over to the Active Contract Each Quarter) .ESF S&P 500 E Mini Futures .NQF Nasdaq 100 E Mini Futures Frequently Requested Indices .INDU Dow Industrials .CCMP NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX .SPX S&P 500 INDEX .COMPX NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX .COMP DOW JONES COMPOSITE INDEX .NYA NYSE Composite .IXF NASDAQ FINANCIAL-100 INDEX .OEX S&P 100 INDEX .TRAN DOW JONES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE INDEX .BKX Banking Index .BTK AMEX BIOTECHNOLOGY INDEX .SOX PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR SECTOR INDEX .VIX CBOE MARKET VOLATILITY INDEX NYSE Market Indicators .TICN NYSE Up/Down Indocator .TRIN NYSE Short Term Trading Index .UVOL NYSE Advance Volume .DVOL NYSE Decline Volume .VOLU NYSE Total Volume .IADV NYSE Advance Issues .IDEC NYSE Decline Issues .IUNC NYSE Unchanged Issues NASDAQ Market Indicators .CCMP NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX .TICQ NASDAQ Up/Down Indicator .TRIQ NASDAQ Short Term Trading Index .UVOQ NASDAQ Advance Volume .DVOLQ NASDAQ Decline Volume .VOLQ NASDAQ Total Volume AMEX Market Indicators .UVOA AMEX Adavance Volume .DVOA AMEX Decline Volume .VOLA AMEX Total Volume .IADVA AMEX Advance Issues .IDECA AMEX Decline Issues .ISAAU AMEX Unchanged Issues Philadelphia Indices .SOX PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR SECTOR INDEX .XAU PHLX Gold/Silver SectorSM .HGX PHLX Housing SectorSM .OSX PHLX Oil Service SectorSM .UTY PHLX Utility SectorSM .EPX SIG Oil Exploration and Production IndexSM .BKX Banking Index .BTK Biotechnology Index . -
Security Market Manipulations and the Assurance of Market Integrity
Security Market Manipulations and the Assurance of Market Integrity By Shan Ji Supervisor: Professor Mike Aitken Co-supervisor: Professor Frederick H. deB. Harris This thesis is presented for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Finance At The University of New South Wales Banking and Finance Australian School of Business 2009 Abstract This dissertation is motivated by two major factors. First, there have been no direct studies conducted for the relationship between market integrity and market efficiency and the driving forces behind the cross-sectional variations in market quality. Second, a better understanding the relationships among market integrity, market efficiency and other mechanism design factors for securities exchanges will facilitate securities exchanges achieve a satisfactory level of market quality. This dissertation consists of three chapters. In Chapter 1, a review of literature on market manipulation will be given. A series of common securities market manipulation strategies and corresponding market surveillance alerts will be explained and defined. In Chapter 2, we develop a testable hypothesis that market manipulation as proxied by the incidence of ramping alerts would raise transaction cost for completing larger trades. We find ramping alert incidence positively related to effective spreads in 8 of 10 turnover deciles from most liquid to thinnest-trading securities. The magnitude of the increase in effective spreads when ramping manipulation incidence doubles is economically significant, 30 to 40 basis points in many