Indian Rupee: Historical Fluctuations

Prepared by: Peter Frerichs, MPA Consultant

Contents

I. Introduction to the Rupee ……………………………………………………………3

II. Fluctuation Factors…………………………………………………………………...4

III. Indian Reform Periods………………………………………………………………..7

IV. Rupee in 21st Century…………………………………………………………………8

V. Reserve Bank of India…………………………………………………………….….11

VI. Projections……………………………………………………………………….…...13

VII. Appendix……………………………………………………………………………..16

VIII. References…………………………………………………………………..……..…18

I. Introduction to the Rupee ______

Defining India’s monetary regime with regard to the rupee’s exchange rate with the dollar can be a convoluted process. Designations such as de facto or non-traditional have been used to describe the unique relationship the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintains with the U.S. greenback. Yet, after cutting through mountains of extraneous terminology, unique to India’s floating exchange rate with the euro or the yen, the RBI has neither a fixed nor a floating policy with the dollar. Rather, the RBI maintains a managed exchange rate with the dollar, buying and selling foreign currencies with the ultimate goal of keeping the rupee stable.1

Intervention, according to the RBI, is necessary to manage exchange rate volatility between the two currencies.2 There is no fixed target rate, and market forces are left to decide the fate of exchange post intervention. In June 2007 the RBI was quoted as stating that controlling and suppressing inflation was their primary focus.1 Taming inflation however is a complex issue, reaching into social and political arenas that consequently end up affecting and moving the exchange rate just as well. The RBI like any other entity of the state is understandably affected by the political economy, thus the movement of the rupee is far from determinate on economic factors alone.

Appendix A, Graph 1 details the rupee’s movement against the dollar from 1990 to the present. A steady rate of depreciation had been the norm for over a decade with the lowest point over the eighteen year period being in January 1990, Rs16.9:US$1. In fiscal year (FY) 1993/94 the rupee maintained an average annual rate of Rs31.37:US$1.3 By FY 2002/03 it had dropped to

1 Robinson, Simon. (2007, July 16). The Message in India’s Rupee Rise. Time Magazine. Retrieved on March 18, 2008 from http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1643855,00.html?xid=feed-cnn-topics

2 Ramachandran, M. & Sambandhan, D. (2007, April 14). Resisting Rupee Appreciation? Economic and Political Weekly. Retrieved on March 18, 2008 from http://www.epw.org.in/epw/uploads/articles/10490.pdf

3 India’s Strong Rupee. (2007, July 27) The Economist. Retrieved on March 19, 2008 from http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=6899464&story_id=9396854

Rs48.40:US$1, marking an average annual depreciation of close to 5 percent over the nine year period.3

In between FYs 2003/04 and 2005/06, the rupee reversed course and appreciated by an average of 3 percent per year.3 The Indian currency had reached its height in May 2002, Rs49:US$1, and continuous month-on-month appreciation took shape in September 2006 enduring to the present. During 2007 the rupee strengthened by close to 15 percent against the dollar.4 This was the biggest increase since 1974.5 India has also witnessed over a 10 percent rupee rise on an inflation-adjusted, trade-weighted basis since August 2006.5

As of March 31, 2008, the exchange rate stands at Rs40.14:US$1. The rupee has performed badly since the beginning of the year- the second worst in all of Asia.5 Yet, in the face of huge capital inflows into the country, to be discussed further on, the RBI has fared fairly well in containing inflation. The losers in this equation however are select Indian export sectors whose jobs and livelihoods are at risk due to expected losses resulting from a strong rupee.6 Cheaper imports on the other hand, especially those required inputs for manufacturing goods to export, have eased export sector pains. Yet, to grasp the reasons behind the rupee’s rise and what it means both commercially and economically for India and the U.S., addressing the various factors involved with currency movements is an appropriate first start.

II. Fluctuation Factors ______

Forecasting currency movements is laborious work. Firms spend countless hours and resources analyzing and measuring what are thought to be the critical factors needed to accurately address

4 The Uncomfortable Rise of the Rupee. (2007, December 13) The Economist. Retrieved on March 19, 2008 from http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=6899464&story_id=10286077

5 Varma, Anil. (2008, March 20). Rupee Set to Rebound as India Weathers U.S. Showdown, BOA Says. www.bloomberg.com Retrieved on March 22, 2008 from http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=axWlqwE6OOQk&refer=india

6 Chandra, Shobhana & Thomas, Cherian. (2007, September 26) India May Shield Exporters from Rupee, Minister Says (Update 4). www.bloomberg.com Retrieved on March 22, 2008 from http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=alS4DteWrtco&refer=asia the reasons behind fluctuation. Although no clear-cut recipe exists to undertake this task, there are some common factors that have a direct correlation to the movement of money.

Political and psychological factors as well as the overall strength of the economy cause the most fluctuation. Essentially, if an economy is growing quickly it will tend to attract foreign currency which will in turn strengthen its own currency. Some countries such as India over the years have adopted export-only growth strategies which result in much more foreign currency coming in than home currency flowing outward. This will also strengthen the home currency. Political factors such as a change in government or the possibility of war cause speculation resulting in currency fluctuation. Psychologically, a war or a government deemed to be anti-market signals trouble. Similar to the stock-market, speculation can lead to massive inflows and outflows of capital and this can strengthen or weaken a currency overnight.

Exchange rates typically move in a direction to compensate for an economy’s relative inflation rates. Frequently, if a currency is overvalued, measured by whether it is stronger than is warranted by the economy’s relative inflation rates, a depreciation of that currency will occur to correct the position of the currency.7 Generally, high inflation will reduce a country’s competitiveness and weaken the country’s ability to export and sell its services or goods abroad. Once this occurs, demand or expected demand for the country’s currency will in turn weaken, thus making demand for foreign currency more attractive. Aside from exports though, one of the advantages India maintains from a strong rupee is that it has helped to subdue inflation by reducing the costs of imports and keeping domestic prices in check.8

Movements in large sums of capital in and out of a country are considered one of the most influential reasons for changes in the exchange rate. A large net inflow of a foreign currency will generally strengthen the home currency. This intuitively makes sense because depending on the amount of inflow, the foreign currency would then end up being in excess of what is considered

7 Kramer, Charles, Oura, Hiroko, Richter-Hume, Andrea, Topalova, Petia, Poirson, Helene, Kohli, Renu, Prasad, Ananthakrishnan, & Jobst, Andreas. (2008, February) India: Selected Issues. International Monetary Fund. Retrieved on March 18, 2008 from http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2008/cr0852.pdf

8 India Rupee at Fresh Dollar High. (2007, October 10) BBC News. Retrieved on March 18, 2008 from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7037807.stm normal market demand. When India first began to liberalize its economy billions of U.S. dollars came streaming into the country, thus strengthening the currency. In 1996 and 1997 foreign investors extracted billions of dollars which in turn weakened the rupee.7

A government’s monetary and fiscal policies directly affect supply and demand for a currency which as a result impacts trade. For example, a policy designed to increase the supply of money will raise prices and also make imports more attractive from a trading perspective. To attract money into an economy governments have an array of tools at their disposal. Central banks can offer high rates on treasury bills for example, and many banks will buy foreign currency when there’s an excess in supply, or sell it when the demand for the currency exceeds the supply.9 Fiscal surpluses on the other hand tend to result in a decreased demand for imports, but increased opportunities for exporters. In this scenario, domestically a country’s importers will not be able to capture a favorable return due to the weak exchange rate, but the same country’s exporters will have greater opportunities to sell due to the favorable exchange they are providing foreign partners.

Historically, tariffs and quotas were designed to protect a country’s foreign exchange by reducing demand from potential domestic consumers. Tariffs and quotas also serve to protect selected domestic industries for economic or political reasons as well. The ease at which information can be accessed in today’s world has shed light on the real effects tariffs and quotas impose. Obviously, if you work or will gain from a sector protected by tariffs and quotas, you would like to see your government hold these in place. If you are looking to buy an item that would cost you $1 in a neighboring country, but $5 in your country, you might not be as forgiving. Tariffs and quotas protect the exchange by reducing demand, but they also close markets which can in the long-term pose its own significant problems on the currency in question.

Lastly, exchange controls imposed by the state are used to manage supply and demand of the home currency. Before liberalization took hold in India in the 1990s, the government maintained

9 Panagariya, Arvind. (2004, January 16) Is a Crisis Around the Corner? International Monetary Fund. Retrieved on March 18, 2008 from http://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2004/fiscal/pdf/panag.pdf tight exchange control.10 Overall access to foreign currency by the country’s citizens was closely monitored and released only for pre-determined purposes. The rational at the time was India’s export sector had yet to experience significant returns to scale and the country still relied on a large percentage of imports.10 Some countries such as Bangladesh still maintain exchange rates at artificial levels to guard against economic shocks that could result from massive inflows and outflows of foreign currency.

III. Indian Reform Periods ______

During the mid to late 1980s Indian policymakers and politicians utilized a variety of tools to stimulate growth: currency devaluation, trade liberalization, de-licensing of investment.10 Liberalization was quietly executed and pierced almost all areas of industry. Growth during the 1980s was higher than the 70s and 60s, but it was really the average annual growth of 7.6 percent from 1988 to 1991 that lifted the entire decade as a whole.10 Most of the growth in the 80s was fueled by financial borrowing, both domestically and internationally.10 In the end this was ultimately unsustainable and led to the crisis of June 1991.10

Pre-1990 India was relatively isolated commercially and economically from world markets. External trade was in place, but from a macro perspective the world economy and its effects had little consequence on the Indian economy. Thankfully, the effects of the crisis of June 1991 served more as a catalyst for further reforms than as an economic step backwards. India still experienced a loss of international creditworthiness, but ventured forth with a reform package that was unique to what was implemented during the previous decade.

For the first time the Indian government began awarding priority to entrepreneurs over state- operated firms to pursue free market oriented activities.10 The government also lifted restrictions on the rupee and current account transactions including trade, interest payments, and remittances.9 Exchange controls were lifted as well, and the government devalued the rupee by

10 Panagariya, Arvind. (2004, March) India in the 1980s and 1990s: A Triumph of Reforms. International Monetary Fund. Retrieved on March 18, 2008 from http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp0443.pdf 22 percent against the dollar – Rs21.2 to Rs25.8:US$1.10 By 1992 a dual exchange rate system was introduced which allowed exporters to sell 60 percent of their foreign exchange in the free market, and 40 percent to the government at a lower “official” price.10 Importers were also able to purchase foreign exchange in the open market and within a year of establishing a market exchange rate, the official exchange rate was integrated with it.10

By February of 1994 widespread current account transactions such as business, education, medical expenses, and foreign travel were also permitted at the market exchange rate.10 The government went a step further officially accepting International Monetary Fund (IMF) Article VIII obligations. Among other things, this transformed the rupee into being officially convertible on the current account.10 Capital-account convertibility was not established at this time, the ramifications of which potentially saved massive capital flight during the Asian crisis years.

All in all the economic reforms of the 90s led to increased foreign investment which has lifted India’s rate of sustainable growth. The exchange rate remained flexible throughout the 90s and it was allowed to depreciate as needed to preserve international market competitiveness. The 90s reforms as compared to those of the 80s were more methodical in nature, better planned. India is still an emerging economy with an uncomfortable amount of citizens living in squalid conditions, but the reforms of the 80s and 90s set in motion international interest and investment that has shaped the economy into what it is today.

IV. Rupee in the 21st Century ______

Since 2003/04 the rupee has been appreciating against the dollar. One of the primary factors that have contributed to the rupee rise is foreign investment. Foreign investment and capital inflows stream into a country for one reason: the existence of a favorable climate for making money. Referring to Chart 1, net capital inflows to India in January 2001 amounted to approximately 8 billion dollars. Three years later that number leaped to 20 billion, and last year, January 2007, India recorded roughly 44 billion dollars in net capital inflows. This is staggering growth and the quantity of foreign capital flooding into the country has a direct effect on monetary movements Chart 1

Source: The Uncomfortable Rise of the Rupee. (2007, December 13) The Economist.

Coupled with capital inflows real GDP growth over the past five years has also been unsurprisingly strong. 2005 and 2006 recorded 9.2 percent and 9.4 percent real GDP growth rates respectively, up from 8.3 percent in 2004.11 Overall, India grew at 13 percent annually in real dollars over the four year span from 2003 to 2007.12 Arvind Panagariya, a nonresident Senior Fellow at The Brookings Institute posited earlier this year, “… if this rate is maintained and the US economy grows at 3 per cent per annum, India will become two-fifths of the US economy in just two decades.”12

A booming stock market, the slashing of trade tariffs, corporate restructuring, and the deregulation of licensing requirements, financial activities, and foreign direct investment has all led to greater capital inflows. The rise of the rupee has been credited to the inundation of foreign capital, and Table 1 illustrates three of the more common capital delivery channels.

11 Country Briefings: India. (2007, September 12). The Economist. Retrieved on March 18, 2008 from http://www.economist.com/countries/India/profile.cfm?folder=Profile%2DEconomic%20Structure

12 Panagariya, Arvind. (2008, February 18). India’s Growing Economy: Song of the Crossroads. The Brookings Institute. Retrieved on March 19, 2008 from http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2008/0218_india_economy_panagariya.aspx

Table 1

Key Indicators 1990-91 2006-07 % Increase Trade in Goods/Services as a 16% 49% 206% Proportion of GDP

Foreign Direct > 100 million 19.5 billion 194% Investment (US$)

Portfolio Investment 6 million 7 billion 1,165% (US$)

Remittances (US$) 2 billion 28 billion 13%

Source: Panagariya, Arvind. (2008, February 18). India’s Growing Economy: Song of the Crossroads. The Brookings Institute.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has increased by nearly 194 percent from 1990 to 2007 because India is simply a promising country to do business. The country boasts an attractive export base with the rise of trade in goods and services as a proportion of GDP directly reflecting India’s export strength. External commercial borrowing (ECB) typically refers to domestic (Indian companies) borrowing overseas to finance projects domestically and abroad. ECBs have also increased and this capital has been streaming back to India in the form of FDI further boosting inflows.3

Portfolio investment inflows arrive due to the strength of the stock market. As Table 1 illustrates, the jump in portfolio investment from 1990-91 to 2006-07 has been astounding. Foreign institutional investors as well as overseas equity issues, namely global depository receipts (GDRs) and American depository receipts (ADRs), make up the bulk of portfolio investment in India. Investment inflows from GDRs and ADRs alone totaled US$3.8 billion in 2006/07, a 48 percent increase from 2005/06.3

Lastly, remittances dispense capital back into India where non-resident Indians (NRIs) benefit from the country’s favorable interest rates to invest in their home country. Indians working overseas temporarily contributed alone approximately US$19.6 billion from April to December 2006, a 15 percent year-on-year increase.3 Remittances have become a global phenomenon over the past decade or so, and India, like many other emerging economies, receives a hefty amount of foreign capital due to the plethora of citizens working abroad with family connections back home.

V. Reserve Bank of India ______

The RBI’s policy actions in response to capital inflows have much to do with rupee fluctuation. Inflows in general complicate monetary and exchange rate policies. They also increase the supply of money in the economy which elevates inflationary pressures. India’s productivity led growth boom along with higher interest rates than abroad all but assure the continued inflow of foreign capital. Due to this the RBI has had to spend substantially more on buying foreign currencies to keep the rupee stable. At the current moment the RBI is caught between trying to resist extreme rupee appreciation and control inflation. Politically, if inflation climbs Indian citizens will suffer via higher prices for basics such as food and housing. The annual inflation rate rose to 6.1 percent in January 2007, compared with 4.2 percent in 2006.3 The RBI is restricted in the manner in which they can intervene in the foreign exchange market. Printing rupees to buy incoming money will keep the rupee cheap, but this will also add to the overall economy’s money supply thus engendering inflation. To ease appreciation the RBI has made it difficult for Indian firms to borrow in foreign currency.3 The other option would be to restrict inflows of capital, but this could be difficult again for political and commercial reasons.

One interesting measure the RBI has utilized in their attempt to control appreciation has been the selling of “sterilization” bonds to banks. Coupled with this, the government has also raised the amount of reserves banks must keep in their vaults. The problem however has been the banks’ unwillingness to buy the bonds unless they can receive a decent return on their purchase. In China for example banks do end up buying Chinese government issued bonds primarily because they are “force-fed” from the government.4 The RBI and the Indian government for better or worse are not as aggressive as their competing neighbor, thus leaving “sterilization” bonds unappetizing, weak policy tools.

Commercially, the RBI’s response to the rupee rise has sparked a debate in the export sector. History has demonstrated that depending on the sector and relative global demand, a rise in one country’s exchange rate (India) with another country (U.S.) can adversely affect the export industry due to goods and services subsequently costing more for the importing country (U.S.). Yet, this does not hold true for all sectors, and being that all countries import and export, what would cost more to export in turn will cost less to import. Thus, a stronger rupee has also resulted in goods and services from abroad to be acquired cheaper.

One of the export sectors adversely hit by a strong rupee has been the apparel sector. One of India’s major export industries, the apparel sector weakened by 3.5 percent, year-on-year, in January to April 2007.3 At the same time, China’s apparel exports to the U.S. increased by 57 percent.3 Moreover, prior to early 2007 apparel exports from India to the U.S. had been rising at an average rate of 21 percent per year since import quotas were eliminated in 2005.3 Conversely, another large export sector, IT and business-process outsourcing (BPO), has been booming despite the rupee’s appreciation. Software services exports numbered US$21.8 billion in April to December 2006, a year-on-year increase of 31 percent.3 History has also demonstrated that a strong rupee does not necessarily equate to weak export numbers. India’s fastest export growth since 1974 transpired in 2005 while the rupee had appreciated by over 4 percent in real effective terms.7

Recently the RBI has invoked the term “Dutch Disease” in their justification for wanting to check long-term rupee appreciation. The term refers to the negative effect large inflows of capital into the Netherlands had on the Dutch manufacturing for export sector after the discovery of natural-gas deposits. In India’s case, their favorable investment climate is the foreign capital draw, but as demonstrated, not every export sector is adversely affected by a strong home currency and it would appear targeting inflation by keeping domestic prices down, especially with regard to precious imports with little elasticity for demand such as oil, might be a more plausible reason for continued appreciation at least for now.

VI. Projections ______

India’s next general election will take place May 2009. Projections hold for another coalition government to be elected to power, with previous personality and policy clashes enduring which should hinder any potential alliances in government.13 Structurally, labor and bankruptcy laws are still overly rigid, tariff levels are high compared to other East Asian economies, overall infrastructure (roads and ports) is in dire need of repair, and power cuts still cause significant work stoppages on a month by month basis.14 Aggregate domestic demand outstrips supply, but it is posited India will have to accept slower growth if the RBI is serious about keeping inflation under control.14

Looking at Table 2, The Economist projects real GDP growth to slow over the next four years before picking up again in 2012. Consumer price inflation projections, based on RBI public commitments, will drop below 6 percent, and the rupee is estimated to continue to appreciate presumably to keep inflation in check and in response to a U.S. recession.

13 Country Briefings: India – Forecast (2008, March 7). The Economist. Retrieved on March 18, 2008 from http://www.economist.com/countries/India/profile.cfm?folder=Profile-Forecast

14 Goldilocks Tests the Vindaloo. (2007, July 7). The Economist. Retrieved on March 20, 2008 from http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=6899464&story_id=9302709

Table 2

Future Projections

Key indicators 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Real GDP growth (%) 8.7 7.8 7.2 7.4 7.7 8

Consumer price inflation 6.4 5.8 5.5 5.2 5 5.2 (av; %)

Budget balance (% of GDP) -3.2 -3.1 -2.9 -2.8 -2.7 -2.5

Current-account balance (% -1.1 -2 -1.1 -1.1 -1.7 -2.3 of GDP)

Lending rate (av; %) 13.1 12.8 12 11 10 10

Exchange rate Rs:US$ (av) 41.3 38.4 36.4 35.5 35 34.5

Source: Country Briefings: India – Economic Data (2008, March 7). The Economist.

India’s total productivity growth has averaged 3.5 percent over the past two to three years.7 Their share in world goods has nearly doubled, and the only country to exceed this productivity growth rate has been China. This rate suggests exports have been advancing despite rupee appreciation which is a testament to the power of the reforms implemented in the 80s and 90s.

The RBI as mentioned has intervened in a time marked with massive capital inflows to buy and sell foreign currency in the attempt to smooth volatility in the exchange rate. Over time volatility has increased, and while the RBI does not announce nor publicly target a “preferred” exchange rate with the dollar, the level of volatility at the current time is parallel with similar economies to that of India.7 Research at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the RBI concluded in October 2007 that the RBIs intervention in the way of buying and selling foreign currencies has had little effect on the rupee movement to the dollar.7 Structural improvements have helped the export sector, and exports have been favorable overall, thus leading the IMF and RBI to conclude that the wide productivity differential as mentioned earlier in favor of India could be the factor driving appreciation.7 Further structural improvements are needed of course, but a higher rate of growth would also, as theorized, stoke inflation once again.

The RBIs measures seem to do more to reduce volatility in the rupee rather than manipulate changes in the actual currency. It is clear that capital inflows and the resulting boom in productivity have had an effect on rupee fluctuation. While the RBI might not have a direct role in manipulating changes in the currency, political populism is certainly alive and well in India. As long as taming inflation remains a politically viable platform to stump on, “smoothing” rupee volatility will continue, and this type of monetary policy alongside capital inflows and labor productivity levels should be considered to have much to do with the fluctuation of the rupee in the past, present, and future.

Appendix A

Graph 1

INR Indian Rupees to 1 U.S. Dollar

Highest: 49.055 (5/22/02) Lowest: 16.920 (1/10/90)

Average over 18 years: 38.138

Source: http://www.chartflow.com/fx/historybasic.asp

Figure 1

Source: Country Briefings: India – Economic Data (2008, March 7). The Economist.

Figure 2

Source: Country Briefings: India – Economic Data (2008, March 7). The Economist.

References

Chandra, Shobhana & Thomas, Cherian. (2007, September 26) India May Shield Exporters from Rupee, Minister Says (Update 4). www.bloomberg.com Retrieved on March 22, 2008 from http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=alS4DteWrtco&refer=asia

Country Briefings: India – Economic Data (2008, March 7). The Economist. Retrieved on March 20, 2008 from http://www.economist.com/countries/India/profile.cfm?folder=Profile- Economic%20Data

Country Briefings: India – Forecast (2008, March 7). The Economist. Retrieved on March 18, 2008 from http://www.economist.com/countries/India/profile.cfm?folder=Profile-Forecast

Country Briefings: India. (2007, September 12). The Economist. Retrieved on March 18, 2008 from http://www.economist.com/countries/India/profile.cfm?folder=Profile%2DEconomic%20Structu re

Goldilocks Tests the Vindaloo. (2007, July 7). The Economist. Retrieved on March 20, 2008 from http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=6899464&sto ry_id=9302709

India Rupee at Fresh Dollar High. (2007, October 10) BBC News. Retrieved on March 18, 2008 from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7037807.stm

India’s Strong Rupee. (2007, July 27) The Economist. Retrieved on March 19, 2008 from http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=6899464&sto ry_id=9396854

Kramer, Charles, Oura, Hiroko, Richter-Hume, Andrea, Topalova, Petia, Poirson, Helene, Kohli, Renu, Prasad, Ananthakrishnan, & Jobst, Andreas. (2008, February) India: Selected Issues. International Monetary Fund. Retrieved on March 18, 2008 from http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2008/cr0852.pdf

Panagariya, Arvind. (2008, February 18). India’s Growing Economy: Song of the Crossroads. The Brookings Institute. Retrieved on March 19, 2008 from http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2008/0218_india_economy_panagariya.aspx

Panagariya, Arvind. (2004, March) India in the 1980s and 1990s: A Triumph of Reforms. International Monetary Fund. Retrieved on March 18, 2008 from http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp0443.pdf

Panagariya, Arvind. (2004, January 16) Is a Crisis Around the Corner? International Monetary Fund. Retrieved on March 18, 2008 from http://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2004/fiscal/pdf/panag.pdf

Ramachandran, M. & Sambandhan, D. (2007, April 14). Resisting Rupee Appreciation? Economic and Political Weekly. Retrieved on March 18, 2008 from http://www.epw.org.in/epw/uploads/articles/10490.pdf

Robinson, Simon. (2007, July 16). The Message in India’s Rupee Rise. Time Magazine. Retrieved on March 18, 2008 from http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1643855,00.html?xid=feed-cnn-topics

The Uncomfortable Rise of the Rupee. (2007, December 13) The Economist. Retrieved on March 19, 2008 from http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=6899464&sto ry_id=10286077

Varma, Anil. (2008, March 20). Rupee Set to Rebound as India Weathers U.S. Showdown, BOA Says. www.bloomberg.com Retrieved on March 22, 2008 from http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=axWlqwE6OOQk&refer=india