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Indian Monetary Policy and the International Liquidity Crisis During the Inter-War Years (1919-1939)

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Indian Monetary Policy and the International Liquidity Crisis During the Inter-War Years (1919-1939) INDIAN MONETARY POLICY AND THE INTERNATIONAL LIQUIDITY CRISIS DURING THE INTER-WAR YEARS (1919-1939). G.Balachandran January 1989 Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of the University of London School of Oriental and African Studies London WC1 ProQuest Number: 10672611 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a com plete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. uest ProQuest 10672611 Published by ProQuest LLC(2017). Copyright of the Dissertation is held by the Author. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States C ode Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. ProQuest LLC. 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106- 1346 11 ABSTRACT OF THESIS INDIAN MONETARY POLICY AND THE INTERNATIONAL LIQUIDITY CRISIS DURING THE INTER-WAR YEARS (1919-1939). This thesis examines the multi-lateral considerations that, in our view, underlay the formulation of monetary policy in India in the period between the two world wars. During and after the First World War, Britain faced a severe liquidity crisis. We argue that monetary policy in India was formulated to take account of this crisis. Traditionally, India was a large absorber of gold on the non-monetary account. The persistent aim of British monetary policy in the Indian context during the entire inter­ war period was that of not allowing India to set up a monetary demand for gold in addition to her non-monetary demand for it and secondly, through deflationary policies (including exchange rate adjustments), to limit India’s non-monetary gold demands to the minimum. Indian gold exports during the depression, which gave room for manoeuvre in the management of the sterling after September 1931, were a logical sequel to this policy. The British liquidity crisis in this period took the form of her current account surpluses being inadequate to support a high level of overseas lending. Besides, in an uncertain financial environment, Britain was a large short-term debtor as the British bank rate acted as much to increase her short-term liabilities as it did by calling in her short-term assets. The British desire to return to gold at the pre-1914 parity required domestic deflation which itself was a matter of severe political contention. In the circumstances, Britain hoped her return to gold would be Ill accomplished by a US inflation and US export of capital. Compounding this situation was the thinly veiled fear, in Britain, of the erosion of the key currency role of the sterling and the loss of its global financial leadership to the USA. Control over Indian monetary policy and its outcome proved valuable to Britain in this environment. ACKNOWLEDGMENT I am deeply indebted to my supervisor Prof.K.N.Chaudhuri for his friendly guidance, sympathy, support. G.Balachandran TABLE OF CONTENTS Title Page Abstract Acknowledgements Table of Contents List of Tables List of Abbreviations Chapter I p. 1 Introduction : On some Theoretical, Historical and Institutional Aspects of India in the International Monetary System 1.1 The Indian Financial System 1.2 Britain and the Indian Gold Exchange Standard 1.3 The Gold Exchange Standard in World War I 1.4 The Role of Gold 1.5 Britain and the Gold Exchange Standard 1.6 Gold for India : Changing British Perceptions 1.7 Whitehall and Indian Monetary Policy Organisation of the thesis Chapter II p.53 The Liquidity Problem in World War I II. 1 British Finance in the War 11.2 Indian Trade in the War 11.3 The Pitman Silver Agreement 11.4 Conclusion Chapter III p.92 Adjusting the Indian Liquidity Demand : The Stabilization Package of 1920 111.1 The Babbington-Smith Committee A) The Convertibility Argument B) The Inflation Argument 111.2 The Treasury Response to the Report 111.3 The Results 111.4 Summary and Conclusion vi Chapter IV p. 138 The Managed Float Regime IV.1 The Background : The British Liquidity Crisis IV.2 Policy in India, 1921-1924 : Motivations and Results A) Prices, Exchange Rates and Gold : 1920-1925 B) Money Supply and the Exchange Rate IV.3 The Sterling Purchase Controversy and Exchange Rate Policy IV.4 Summary Chapter V p. 182 The Gold Bullion Standard and a Modest Revaluation : The Hilton-Young Compromise V.l The Making of a Commission V.2 The Gold Standard Controversy Y.3 The Exchange Rate Question Y.4 After the Report V.5 Summary Chapter VI p.230 The Depression Years VI.l The Depression : Impact VI.2 The Constraints and the Response A) Britain’s Liquidity Crisis B) India ; Constraints and Response VI.3 Gold and Silver VI.4 Full Circle : The Problem of Super Abundant Gold VI.5 Conclusion Chapter VII p.291 Conclusion Bibliography p.298 Vll LIST OF TABLES Table II.l Composition of the Paper Currency Reserve : March 1914-September 1919 Table II.2 Absorption and Return of Rupees and Notes : 1912/13-1919/20 Table III.l Indian and British Prices, 1913/14-1917/18 Table IV.l Prices and Exchange Rates, 1920-1925 Table IV.2 Trade Balance and Currency Circulation Table IY.3 Home Charges Financing, 1921-1925 Table VI.1 The Indian Current Account : 1926/27-1937/38 Table VI.2 Indian Terms of Trade : 1927-1936 Table VI.3 The Indian Capital Account : 1926/27-1937/38 Table VI.4 Foreign Capital Issues : 1920-1931 Table VI.5 Gross Coin and Note Circulation : Quarterly, 1929-1934 Table VI.6 Bank of England and Treasury Holdings of Gold and Foreign Exchange : Half-Yearly, September 1931 to 1938 Table YI.7 British Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves as Percentage of her Imports and Net External Liabilities Vlll LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS The following abbreviations have been used in the text and in the bibliography. AER American Economic Review AHR American Historical Review BNDLQR Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review CCA Churchill College Archives CEHI Cambridge Economic History of India CSSH Contemporary Studies in Society and History EHR Economic History Review EJ Economic Journal EPW Economic and Political Weekly EEH Explorations in Economic History Htry Hawtrey Papers IEJ Indian Economic Journal IER Indian Economic Review IESHR Indian Economic and Social History Review IJE Indian Journal of Economics IOLR India Office Library and Records JAH Journal of American History JAS Journal of Asian Studies JCH Journal of Contemporary History IDE Journal of Development Economics JDS Journal of Development Studies JEH Journal of Economic History JEEH Journal of European Economic History JICH Journal of Imperial and Commonwealth History JIE Journal of International Economics JME Journal of Monetary Economics JPE Journal of Political Economy JPS Journal of Peasant Studies MAS Modem Asian Studies NMMA Nehru Memorial Museum and Archives OEP Oxford Economic Papers PRO Public Record Office RBIB Reserve Bank of India Bulletin SEJ Southern Economic Journal SJPE Scottish Journal of Political Economy QJE Quarterly Journal of Economics The title of a book cited in the text is given in full at the first citation. Subsequent citations give key words from the title. Due to technical problems (with the software and the printer respectively), it has not been possible to italicize or underline titles of books, names of journals or non-english words. These are instead printed in bold type as in the abbreviations above. CHAPTER 1 Introduction : On some Theoretical, Historical and Institutional Aspects of India in the International Monetary System 1.1 The Indian Financial System 1.2 Britain and the Indian Gold Exchange Standard 1.3 The Gold Exchange Standard in World War I 1.4 The Role of Gold 1.5 Britain and the Gold Exchange Standard 1.6 Gold for India : Changing British Perceptions 1.7 Whitehall and Indian Monetary Policy Organisation of the thesis This study examines the influence of multilateral factors on India’s monetary policy in the inter-war period. The policy not only affected the external account towards which it was primarily oriented, but also the domestic economy through its effect on prices, incomes, consumption, asset holdings etc.. For at least a decade after the First World War, the colonial administrators were still experimenting with the Indian currency system. Therefore, it is impossible to separate currency policy from Indian monetary policy during this period and we also examine the influence of global factors on the formulation of currency policy in India. In this chapter, we explore some of the theoretical, historical and institutional questions that arise in this context. The external economic relationships of the colonial Indian economy have received some scholarly attention. However, in the questions that were tackled - namely those of the "drain" (unilateral current transfers) and tariffs - and in the approach to them, earlier works have stressed the bilateral aspects of the economic relations between India and the metropolitan country (Britain). External financial policy, 1 Ch.l 2 according to this view, was passive in the inter-war years and was dominated by the need to ensure the discharge of India’s current account obligations.* With much of the nationalist criticism of British policy relating to "drain" and tariffs - both eminently bilateral questions - and with Britain looming so large in relation to India’s external accounts, the above emphasis was perhaps unavoidable. On the other hand, at this time, Britain was presiding with diminished authority over a weakened multilateral payments system whose restoration and strengthening o was seen as the key to British prosperity. India was an important part of this multilateral system and crucial to Britain’s position within it.
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