An Analytical Study on Kenya's Political Leadership Status and Outlook
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An analytical Study on Kenya’s Political Leadership Status and Outlook By Dr Fred Jonyo Department of Political Science and Public Administration University of Nairobi And George Otieno Owidhi PhD Candidate, School of Economics, University of Nairobi. November 2016 Page 1 of 39 Table of Contents List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................... 4 List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................. 5 ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................. 6 CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 9 1.1 Constitutional Context ..................................................................................................................... 9 1.2 Objectives of the Study ............................................................................................................. 9 CHAPTER TWO: METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................... 10 2.1 Sampling ......................................................................................................................................... 10 2.2 Background characteristics of respondents .............................................................................. 11 2.2.1 Age group ................................................................................................................................ 11 2.2.2 Sex ............................................................................................................................................ 11 2.2.3 Marital status ........................................................................................................................... 12 2.2.4 Highest level of education attained by the Respondents ................................................. 13 2.2.5 Main source of income of the Respondents ....................................................................... 13 CHAPTER THREE: STUDY FINDINGS ............................................................................................... 15 3.1 Political leadership status in Kenya ............................................................................................ 15 3.1.1 Popularity of key political players in Kenya ........................................................................ 15 3.1.2 Voting patterns if elections were held on the date of interview in Kenya ...................... 16 3.1.3 Popularity of Key Political Leadership in Western Kenya ................................................ 19 3.1.4 2017 Gubernatorial preferences by respondents ........................................................ 22 3.2 Role of politics in people's livelihoods ........................................................................................ 23 3.2.1 Opinion on area development .............................................................................................. 23 3.2.2 Issues that need to be addressed ........................................................................................ 24 3.2.3 Opinion on political realignments ......................................................................................... 29 CHAPTER FOUR: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................. 31 4.1 Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... 31 4.2 Recommendations ......................................................................................................................... 31 ANNEX I: DATA COLLECTION INSTRUMENTS- THE QUESTIONNAIRE ................................... 32 ANNEX II: HOW TO ACCESS THE STUDY INSTRUMENT ............................................................ 36 Page 2 of 39 ANNEX III: TRAINING OF THE INTERVIEWERS .............................................................................. 37 ANNEX IV: DATA COLLECTION .......................................................................................................... 38 ANNEX V: FIELD EXPERIENCES ........................................................................................................ 38 References ................................................................................................................................................ 39 Page 3 of 39 List of Tables Table 1: Western Kenya Gubernatorial Preferences for 2017 ............................................................ 7 Table 2: Expected and Achieved Sample Sizes .................................................................................. 10 Table 3: Popularity of key political players in Kenya .......................................................................... 15 Table 4: Voting pattern if elections were held on the date of interview ........................................... 16 Table 5: Reasons for wanting to vote for a particular politician ........................................................ 17 Table 6: People's preference for representation of Western Kenya interests ................................ 19 Table 7: Reasons for preferring personality to represent Western Kenya interests ...................... 20 Table 8: People's preferences for gubernatorial positions in 2017 .................................................. 22 Table 9: Opinion on area development ................................................................................................. 23 Table 10: Source of development activity witnessed in the areas under study .............................. 24 Table 11: Issues to be addressed in Bungoma ................................................................................... 24 Table 12: Issues to be addressed in Busia .......................................................................................... 25 Table 13: Issues to be addressed in Kakamega ................................................................................. 25 Table 14: Issues to be addressed in Kitale .......................................................................................... 25 Table 15: Issues to be addressed in Vihiga ......................................................................................... 26 Table 16: Issues to be addressed in Nakuru ....................................................................................... 26 Table 17: Issues to be addressed in Nairobi ........................................................................................ 26 Table 18: Issues to be addressed in Kisumu ....................................................................................... 27 Table 19: Issues to be addressed in Mombasa ................................................................................... 27 Table 20: Issues to be addressed in Kiambu/Thika ............................................................................ 27 Table 21: Issues to be addressed in Narok .......................................................................................... 28 Table 22: Issues to be addressed in Migori ......................................................................................... 28 Table 23: Issues to be addressed in Homa-Bay ................................................................................. 28 Table 24: Issues to be addressed in Eldoret ........................................................................................ 28 Table 25: Issues to be addressed in Kericho ....................................................................................... 28 Table 26: Issues to be addressed in Machakos .................................................................................. 29 Table 27: Issues to be addressed in Kitui ............................................................................................ 29 Table 28: Respondents’ Opinions on political realignments .............................................................. 30 Page 4 of 39 List of Figures Figure 1: Popularity of Political Leaders in Kenya ................................................................................ 6 Figure 2: Political Popularity in Western Kenya .................................................................................... 7 Figure 3: Age Groups of the Respondents ........................................................................................... 11 Figure 4: Sex of the Respondents ......................................................................................................... 12 Figure 5: Marital status of the Respondents ........................................................................................ 12 Figure 6: Highest level of education attained by the Respondents .................................................. 13 Figure 7: Respondents’ Main source of income .................................................................................. 14 Page 5 of 39 ABSTRACT This study set out to analyse Kenya’s Political leadership status and outlook focusing on political popularity in Kenya as a whole and Western Kenya in particular. The study was carried out in 17 major towns in Kenya with a total sample of 530 respondents in the