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American Revolution 2.0 Published 2013 Full American Revolution 2.0 How Education Innovation is Going to Revitalize America and Transform the U.S. Economy July 4, 2012 Michael T. Moe, CFA Matthew P. Hanson, CFA Li Jiang Luben Pampoulov In collaboration with GSV Advisors Deborah Quazzo Michael Cohn Jason Horne Patrick Shelton Special Advisor Michael Horn, Innosight Institute Contributor Sara Leslie Contributor Candlestick Research We would also like to honor and celebrate the lives of Stephen Covey (1932-2012), an educator and author whose work has influenced millions around the world and Sally Ride (1951-2012), a professor and the youngest and first female American astronaut to ever be launched into space. We thank the pioneers who paved the path and serve as an inspiration for all of us. For additional information, please contact Michael Moe, Deborah Quazzo or Matthew Hanson. Contact Email Phone Michael Moe [email protected] 650-235-4780 Assistant: Debbie Elsen [email protected] 650-235-4774 Deborah Quazzo [email protected] 312-397-0070 Assistant: Kerry Rodeghero [email protected] 312-397-0071 Matthew Hanson [email protected] 312-339-4967 A co-author of this paper, Mr. Michael Moe, is a partner of GSV Asset Management, LLC (“GSVAM”), an investment adviser registered with the US Securities Exchange Commission, and the Chief Executive Officer of GSV Capital, Inc., (“GSVC”) a publicly traded Business Development Company for which GSVAM acts as the investment advisor. This paper contains case study information about education and related technology companies, including certain companies in which GSVC has invested. The information contained herein provides only general and summary information regarding any such companies, and contains no material non-public information. This paper is not an offer, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Knowledge Troops - Learning by Numbers 7 Battle Budget - Market Size and Growth Rates 8 Shock and Awe 9 Our Best Days Are Behind Us? 16 The First American Revolution 28 How We Got Here 32 First Shot Fired: A Nation at Risk 41 30 Years Later: A Nation at Even Greater Risk 42 First Wave 42 The Momentum Builds 45 Modern Weaponry 52 Time to Fight 60 The Time is Now 61 The Tidal Wave Comes Ashore: Confluence of Catalysts 61 We Just Need to Imagine 66 Kaizen...Education Style 69 University 2.0 - MOOCs 71 Return on Education (ROE) 78 Knowledge as a Currency (KNAAC) 80 Riding the Megatrends 86 Globalization 87 Internet 89 Mobile 91 Network Effects 94 Free and Freemium 96 3 Social 98 Scaled Delivery 106 Adaptive / Personalization 106 Brands 107 Big Data 108 Cloud 109 Digitization 110 Platform 111 Outsourcing 115 Open Source 116 No Labels 117 Brain Science 118 Weapons of Mass Education – Investment Themes 121 Just For Me 123 1 + 1 = 3 124 The New American Prep School 126 Platform EDU 129 The New Free Ride 131 Knowledge Communities 134 Smart Content 135 The Power of the Game - Part I 139 Tower of Babel 141 Investing in The Revolution - The 4 Ps Framework 145 People – Follow the Leaders 146 Product – What’s the Claim to Fame? 150 Potential – How Big Could this Become? 152 Predictability – How Visible is the Growth? 154 Education Market Snapshot 159 4 Capital Markets Dynamics 165 Pre-K Market 185 Confluence of Catalysts 185 Family Structures and Education Mismatch 186 Preschool Programs for Children of Working Parents 188 K-12 Market 198 Confluence of Catalysts 198 Education: The New Civil Rights Issue 200 Politicians Are Getting Involved 204 New York, Florida, West Virginia, and New Orleans Lead the Way 206 Education Spending is Having Little Positive Effect on Achievement 210 Homeschooling and Charter Schools 215 Re-Imagining the School Calendar 224 Teachers in the Trenches 229 An Industrial Model for Education 231 Teach for America: a Case Study in Human Capital 233 Schools Are Wired In 235 K-12 System with Individualized Learning 238 Post-Secondary Market 242 Confluence of Catalysts 242 Higher-Ed Snapshot 243 Fighting an Entrenched Status Quo: Higher Education 252 Tuition Far Outpacing Inflation 256 Lifelong Learning Market 271 Confluence of Catalysts 271 Knowledge Economy 272 Mismatch Between Demand for Workers and Supply of Skilled Labor 285 We Are Losing Our Future Technology Leaders 288 5 Me.Edu 290 Meet Students Where They Are 292 American Revolution 2.0 296 Good News, Bad News 296 Educators’ Bootcamp 297 Strategic Battle Plan 297 A New Beginning 303 The Declaration of Independence 305 6 Knowledge Troops - Learning by Numbers United States ‣ 77 million students are enrolled in school, which represents 27% of total population ‣ 20 million are enrolled in postsecondary education ‣ 49 million are enrolled in public PreK-12 ‣ 6 million are enrolled in private PreK-12 ‣ Over 2 million enrolled in charter schools ‣ 7.2 million total teachers, with about 1.7 million in postsecondary ‣ 98,817 public schools and 17,916 total school districts ‣ 33,366 private schools ‣ 5,600 charter schools and 180 virtual charter schools ‣ Over 6 million students took at least one online course Around the World ‣ 655 million students in primary school ‣ 781 million students in secondary school ‣ 608 million students in higher education ‣ 78 million teachers in the world ‣ 26% of the world’s population is under the age of 15 ‣ Top 5 languages in the world, total speakers: 1. Mandarin Chinese: 1.3 billion 2. English: 1.0 billion 3. Spanish: 500 million 4. Hindi: 490 million 5. Arabic: 255 million 7 Battle Budget - Market Size and Growth Rates1 ($ in billions) Knowledge Industry Market Size Market Size Market Size 2013-2018 (2013) (2016) (2018) Growth (CAGR) United States Market Size US Education Expenditure $1,481 $1,696 $1,857 5% Pre-K and Child Care $82 $98 $110 6% K-12 $720 $810 $876 4% Postsecondary $604 $699 $771 5% Corporate & Lifelong Learning $75 $89 $100 6% Government Spending on Education $941 $1,058 $1,145 4% eLearning $56 $85 $113 15% K-12 eLearning $4 $7 $10 20% Higher Ed eLearning $25 $41 $57 18% Corporate eLearning $27 $37 $46 11% For-Profit Postsecondary $25 $33 $40 10% Postsecondary LMS $1 $2 $2 15% Textbooks $11 $12 $13 3% eTextbook $1 $2 $5 50% Test Prep / Tutoring / Counseling $11 $12 $13 3% Charter Schools $16 $22 $27 11% Social Learning / Communities $5 $6 $7 6% Global Market Size Global Education Expenditure $4,556 $5,574 $6,379 7% Pre-K and Child Care $245 $318 $377 9% K-12 $2,385 $2,841 $3,192 6% Postsecondary $1,631 $2,054 $2,396 8% Corporate & Lifelong Learning $295 $361 $414 7% eLearning $85 $129 $171 15% K-12 eLearning $10 $20 $31 25% Higher Ed eLearning $35 $60 $87 20% Corporate eLearning $40 $49 $53 6% For-Profit Postsecondary $41 $52 $60 8% Postsecondary LMS $4 $5 $6 10% Postsecondary Textbooks $17 $19 $20 3% Social Learning / Communities $10 $14 $18 12% Mobile Learning $5 $9 $13 22% Edu Gaming $6 $12 $18 25% Global IT Spending $70 $79 $85 4% Global Language Learning $60 $84 $106 12% Global English Language Learning $40 $61 $80 15% Test Prep / Tutoring / Counseling $60 $84 $106 12% For-Profit $329 $438 $530 10% *For-Profit: our recommendation is to remove the labels of “for-profit” and “not-for-profit” in education; however, we use them in this context to discuss traditional categorizations for market sizing purposes. 1 GSV Asset Management and Candlestick Research, 2013. 8 Shock and Awe United States PreK-12 Education to College Readiness • In 4th grade, American students scored above the international average in mathematics. By 8th grade, they dropped below the international average, and by 12th grade, they only outscored South Africa and Cyprus. • By age 4, there is an 18-month academic gap between an impoverished child and his wealthier peers. • 4 out of 100 kindergarteners entering KIPP Ascend in Chicago in 2010 were able to recognize numbers or letters. By the end of the school year, 94% were reading at a 1st grade level or higher. • 6 out of 10 low-income fourth graders in the U.S. cannot do math at grade level. • Pre-Katrina, 35% of students in New Orleans Public Schools were performing at grade level. In 2011, that number was 56%. • Before Katrina, 22% of New Orleans Public Schools were “academically acceptable”. In 2011, 51% were, and that’s expected to reach 92% by 2016. • In 2009, 99% of public school parents in New Orleans believed that school choice was important. • In 2010, over 90% of New Orleans Public School students were in charter schools. • In 1970, 10% of California’s budget went to higher education and 3% to prisons. In 2010, 11% went to prisons and 8% to higher education. • Only 25% of high school graduates in 2011 met all 4 ACT college-readiness benchmarks. 41% of graduating Asians and 4% of African-Americans met all 4 benchmarks. • In 2012, only 1 of 4 graduating seniors were prepared for college coursework. • 75% of high school seniors were unfamiliar with basic facts about American government. • 22% of all public high school students in the US don’t graduate on time, and 32% of the 78% that do graduate aren’t college-ready. • A U.S. high school student drops out every 26 seconds. 9 • Each dropout costs the nation about $292,000 in lost earnings, taxes and productivity over a lifetime. • Each dropout class costs the nation $325 billion in lost contributions, which is equal to the combined GDP of Kansas, Utah, Nebraska, and Alaska every year. • The number of teachers in the US has more than tripled since the 1950’s, almost cutting the student-teacher ratio in half.
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