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The Effects of Operation Hold the Line on El Paso/Juárez

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RESEARCH PAPER Illegal Mexican Migration & the United States/Mexico Border: The Effects of Operation Hold the Line on El Paso/Juárez Frank D. Bean, Roland Chanove, Robert G. Cushing, Rodolfo de la Garza, Gary P. Freeman, Charles W. Haynes, David Spener U.S. COMMISSION ON IMMIGRATION REFORM THE U.S. COMMISSION ON IMMIGRATION REFORM IS A BIPARTISAN COMMISSION AUTHORIZED BY THE IMMIGRATION ACT OF 1990 AND CHARGED WITH EXAMINING IMMIGRATION POLICY AND ITS IMPACT ON SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, AND COMMUNITY RELATIONS, ON POPULATION SIZE AND CHARACTERISTICS, AND ON THE ENVIRONMENT. MR. RICHARD ESTRADA ASSOCIATE EDITOR, DALLAS MORNING NEWS APPOINTED BY SENATE REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP MR. HAROLD EZELL PRESIDENT, THE EZELL GROUP, INC. APPOINTED BY HOUSE REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP DR. LAWRENCE H. FUCHS, VICE CHAIR JAFFEE PROFESSOR OF AMERICAN CIVILIZATION AND POLITICS, BRANDEIS UNIVERSITY APPOINTED BY SENATE DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP ELECTED BY COMMISSIONERS TO BE DEMOCRATIC VICE CHAIR ROBERT CHARLES HILL, ESQ. PARTNER, JENKENS AND GILCHRIST APPOINTED BY HOUSE REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP PROFESSOR BARBARA JORDAN, CHAIR PROFESSOR, LBJ SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS APPOINTED TO CHAIR THE COMMISSION BY PRESIDENT CLINTON WARREN R. LEIDEN, ESQ. EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, AMERICAN IMMIGRATION LAWYERS ASSOCIATION APPOINTED BY HOUSE DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP MR. NELSON MERCED CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, INQUILINOS BORICAS EN ACCION/ EMERGENCY TENANT COUNCIL, INC. APPOINTED BY SENATE DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP BRUCE A. MORRISON, ESQ. PARTNER, MORRISON AND SWAINE APPOINTED BY HOUSE DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP DR. MICHAEL S. TEITELBAUM, VICE CHAIR PROGRAM OFFICER, ALFRED P. S LOAN FOUNDATION APPOINTED BY SENATE REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP ELECTED BY COMMISSIONERS TO BE REPUBLICAN VICE CHAIR SUSAN MARTIN, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR RESEARCH PAPER - 1 - Illegal Mexican Migration & the United States/Mexico Border: The Effects of Operation Hold the Line on El Paso/Juárez FRANK D. BEAN, ROLAND CHANOVE, ROBERT G. CUSHING, RODOLFO DE LA GARZA, GARY P. F REEMAN, CHARLES W. HAYNES, DAVID SPENER POPULATION RESEARCH CENTER THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN JULY 1994 U.S. C O M M I S S I O N O N I M M I G R A T I O N R E F O R M RESEARCH P A P E R - 2 - Acknowledgements WE OWE THANKS AND GRATITUDE TO MANY PEOPLE AND SEVERAL INSTITUTIONS FOR ASSISTANCE IN CONDUCTING AND COMPLETING THIS PROJECT. REGRETTABLY, WE CANNOT ACKNOWLEDGE ALL OF THEM HERE. SEVERAL GROUPS OF PERSONS, HOWEVER, DESERVE SPECIAL RECOGNITION. FIRST, WE WISH TO EXPRESS OUR APPRECIATION TO THE PEOPLE IN EL PASO AND JUÁREZ WHO FREELY COOPERATED WITH AND GENEROUSLY GAVE THEIR TIME AND ASSISTANCE TO THE PROJECT. WE ESPE- CIALLY WANT TO THANK CHIEF PATROL AGENT SILVESTRE REYES OF THE BORDER PATROL AND MAYORS LARRY FRANCIS AND FRANCISCO VILLAREAL OF EL PASO AND JUÁREZ, RESPECTIVELY. ALSO, MR. MARTIN GONZALEZ DE LA VARA OF EL COLEGIO DE LA FREONTERA NORTE IN JUÁREZ WAS HELPFUL. SECOND, WE ARE VERY GRATEFUL TO ANGELA ESCAJEDA, CHERYL HOWARD, BRYAN ROBERTS, AND KATHLEEN STAUDT FOR ADVICE AND ASSISTANCE AT VARIOUS POINTS IN THE RESEARCH. THIRD, WE WISH TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE PROJECT OF THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN. BOTH THE POPULATION RESEARCH CENTER (THROUGH A GRANT FROM THE MACARTHUR FOUNDATION) AND THE INSTITUTE OF LATIN AMERICAN STUDIES (THROUGH A GRANT FROM THE MELLON FOUNDATION) PROVIDED SUPPORT. THE POPULATION RESEARCH CENTER ALSO RECEIVES CORE SUP- PORT FOR CERTAIN PROJECTS FROM THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF CHILD AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT [NICHD GRANT #HD-06160]. FOURTH, EVE KARABANOW, JOSEPH SALAZAR, AND JENNIFER SCALORA PROVIDED RESEARCH AND OTHER ASSISTANCE THAT WAS, WITHOUT QUESTION, “ABOVE AND BEYOND THE CALL OF ANY DUTY.” W E ARE TRULY GRATEFUL. U.S. C O M M I S S I O N O N I M M I G R A T I O N R E F O R M RESEARCH PAPER - 3 - CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 5 II. THE OPERATION AND ITS CONTEXT 7 OPERATION HOLD THE LINE 7 THE METROPOLITAN CONTEXT 11 LEGAL NONIMMIGRANT BORDER CROSSINGS 13 III. EFFECTS ON ILLEGAL FLOWS 17 APPREHENSIONS DATA 19 BRIDGE CROSSING DATA 26 CONCLUSIONS 37 IV. EFFECTS ON BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES 37 BUSINESS LEADER RESPONSE 38 SALES 39 CITY SALES AND USE TAX COLLECTIONS 42 LABOR MARKET 43 TOURISM 46 BUS RIDERSHIP 46 ACCIDENTS 47 JUÁREZ BUSINESS ACTIVITIES 48 CONCLUSIONS 50 V. EFFECTS ON EDUCATION, BIRTHS AND SOCIAL SERVICES 51 EDUCATION 51 BIRTHS 57 WELFARE UTILIZATION 63 EFFECTS IN JUÁREZ 64 CONCLUSIONS 65 VI. EFFECTS ON CRIME AND RELATED INDICATORS IN EL PASO 65 LOCAL PERCEPTIONS AND EXPECTATIONS 65 TRENDS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF CRIME IN EL PASO 68 SERIOUS CRIME 73 GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF CRIME 81 JUVENILE OFFENDERS AND THE RACIAL/ETHNIC DISTRIBUTION OF ARRESTS 82 COST OF CRIME 84 OTHER MEASUREMENTS 87 CONCLUSIONS 92 VII. COMMUNITY & ORGANIZATIONAL EFFECTS IN EL PASO 93 PUBLIC OPINION 93 MEXICAN-AMERICAN COMMUNITY57 94 HUMAN RIGHTS 99 JOB SATISFACTION AMONG BORDER PAT RO L AGENTS 103 CONCLUSIONS 107 VIII. EFFECTS ON ILLEGAL BORDER CROSSERS IN EL PASO AND JUÁREZ 107 BEFORE OPERATION BLOCKADE 107 THE BORDER CROSSING CARD 109 EFFECTS AND RESPONSES 117 IX. SUMMARY 123 FINDINGS 123 ASSESSMENT 124 POLICY IMPLICATIONS 126 REFERENCES 129 U.S. C O M M I S S I O N O N I M M I G R A T I O N R E F O R M RESEARCH P A P E R - 4 - Tables 1. REQUIREMENTS FOR PROCESSING APPLICATION FOR CROSSING CARD -16- 2. A TYPOLOGY OF MEXICAN BORDER CROSSERS IN EL PASO/JUÁREZ -18- 3. AVERAGE MONTHLY LINEWATCH AND NONLINEWATCH APPREHENSIONS & ENFORCEMENT HOURS BY SECTOR GROUPING, FYS 1993-1994 -22- 4. LINEWATCH AND NONLINEWATCH APPREHENSIONS PER HOUR BY SECTOR GROUPING, FYS 1993-1994 -22- 5. TIME SERIES REGRESSION RESULTS FOR MONTHLY LINEWATCH AND NONLINEWATCH APPREHENSIONS ON ENFORCEMENT HOURS & POST-OPERATION DUMMIES BY STATE SECTOR GROUPINGS -25- 6. LEGAL STATUS CATEGORIES OF MEXICAN COMMUTER WORKERS -27- 7. CATEGORIES & ESTIMATED NUMBERS OF COMMUTERS -28- 8. ESTIMATED NUMBERS OF MEXICAN COMMUTER WORKERS RESIDING IN CIUDAD JUÁREZ -29- 9. TRENDS IN NORTHBOUND & SOUTHBOUND PEDESTRIAN CROSSINGS ON THE PASO DEL NORTE & STANTON STREET INTERNATIONAL BRIDGES -31- 10. POST-BLOCKADE CHANGES IN DIFFERENCE & RATIO BETWEEN NORTHBOUND & SOUTHBOUND PEDESTRIAN CROSSINGS, PASO DEL NORTE & STANTON STREET INTERNATIONAL BRIDGES -32- 11. NORTHBOUND & SOUTHBOUND PEDESTRIAN CROSSINGS -33- 12. RATIO OF OBSERVED TO EXPECTED SOUTHBOUND PEDESTRIAN CROSSINGS, PASO DEL NORTE & STANTON STREET INTERNATIONAL BRIDGES -35- 13. RATIO OF OBSERVED TO EXPECTED NUMBERS OF NORTHBOUND PEDESTRIAN CROSSINGS, PASO DEL NORTE INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE -36- 14. PERCENT CHANGES IN REPORTED GROSS SALES IN THE RETAIL TRADE INDUSTRY: ZIP CODES IN EL PASO -41- 15. PERCENT CHANGES IN SALES TAX ALLOCATIONS -42- 16. PERCENT CHANGES IN SALES TAX ALLOCATIONS -43- 17. JOB ORDERS TAKEN BY TEXAS EMPLOYMENT COMMISSION, EL PASO COUNTY -44- 18. MEAN NEW JOB ORDER LISTINGS FOR EL PASO TEXAS EMPLOYMENT COMMISSION SELECTED WEEKS -45- 19. UNEMPLOYMENT RAT E IN EL PASO COUNTY -46- 20. HOTEL OCCUPANCY RATES IN EL PASO -47- 21. AUTOMOBILE-PEDESTRIAN ACCIDENTS: EL PASO BORDER HIGHWAY -49- 22. CHANGES IN ENROLLMENT, SELECTED SCHOOLS: EL PASO INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT -54- 23. SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS IN NINE EL PASO COUNTY ISDS -55- 24. SCHOOL ENROLLMENT & PERCENTAGE OF STUDENTS CLASSIFIED AS ECONOMICALLY DISADVANTAGED -56- 25. DISTRIBUTION OF FUNDING, 1992-1993 -57- 26. HISPANIC BIRTHS IN EL PASO COUNTY -59- 27. THOMASON HOSPITAL STATISTICS -64- 28. NUMBER OF OFFENSES REPORTED TO THE POLICE PER 100,000 POPULATION FOR 40 U.S. CITIES SIMILAR IN POPULATION SIZE TO EL PASO RANKED BY TOTAL CRIME INDEX -70- 29. AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGES IN CRIME RATES PER 100,000 POPULATION FOR 49 U.S. CITIES RANKED BY PERCENT CHANGE IN TOTAL CRIME RAT E -72- 30. REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF VIOLENT & PROPERTY CRIME INDEXES: U.S. METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREAS -74- 31. MAJOR CRIME TRENDS IN EL PASO -75- 32. CRIMES REPORTED TO THE EL PASO POLICE DEPARTMENT BY MONTH -76- 33. ESTIMATES OF POST-OPERATION EFFECT ON MAJOR CRIME FOR FOUR MODELS OF TREND & SEASONALITY -78- 34. DIFFERENCES IN AVERAGE ARREST RATES FROM EL PASO BY RACE/ETHNICITY & AGE CATEGORY -83- 35. VARIOUS MEASURES OF COST OF CRIME -85- 36. TOTAL APPREHENSIONS OF ILLEGAL ALIEN ADULTS BY SANTA FE RAILROAD POLICE OFFICERS -87- 37. APPREHENSIONS OF PEOPLE ATTEMPTING TO IMPORT DRUGS -89- 38. AMOUNTS OF SEIZURES OF DRUGS AT BRIDGES BY U.S. CUSTOMS SERVICE -90- 39. SEIZURES OF ILLEGAL AGRICULTURAL GOODS AND CARGO -90- 40. HUMAN RIGHTS-RELATED INCIDENTS REPORTED, EL PASO SECTOR -102- 41. TYPES OF ABUSE -102- 42. COMPARISON OF CHARACTERISTICS OF ILLEGAL BORDER CROSSERS, NONCROSSERS, & CROSSERS WHO POSSESS THE BORDER CROSSING CARD -110- 43. TYPES OF FALSE DOCUMENTATION ATTEMPTED BY MEXICAN CROSSERS, BRIDGE OF THE AMERICAS -116- Figures 1. NUMBER OF OF LINEWATCH APPREHENSIONS -23- 2. EL PASO POSTAL ZIP CODES -40- 3. HISPANIC BIRTHS IN EL PASO COUNTY -60- 4. NON-HISPANIC BIRTHS IN EL PASO COUNTY -61- 5. HISPANIC BIRTHS IN EL PASO COUNTY BY YEAR -62- U.S. C O M M I S S I O N O N I M M I G R A T I O N R E F O R M RESEARCH PAPER - 5 - I. Introduction eration. Without knowing its consequences, it would be difficult to tell if the Operation has been working On September 19, 1993, Silvestre Reyes, the Chief of in the ways it was intended, not to mention hard to the El Paso Sector of the Border Patrol of the U.S. render an overall judgment about the balance of Immigration and Naturalization Service [INS], positive and negative consequences that it might be launched Operation Blockade along a twenty-mile generating. stretch of the U.S./Mexico border between El Paso and Juárez. Renamed Operation Hold the Line three The study’s ultimate objective, which is to discern weeks later (to avoid the negative connotations as- the larger significance of the Operation for issues sociated with the word “blockade”), the initiative pertaining to U.S.
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