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Effects of Wait Times and Bridge Tolls on Personal Vehicle Border Crossings Into El Paso Omar Solis University of Texas at El Paso, [email protected]

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Effects of Wait Times and Bridge Tolls on Personal Vehicle Border Crossings Into El Paso Omar Solis University of Texas at El Paso, Omarinc@Gmail.Com University of Texas at El Paso DigitalCommons@UTEP Open Access Theses & Dissertations 2018-01-01 Effects Of Wait Times And Bridge Tolls On Personal Vehicle Border Crossings Into El Paso Omar Solis University of Texas at El Paso, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.utep.edu/open_etd Part of the Economics Commons Recommended Citation Solis, Omar, "Effects Of Wait Times And Bridge Tolls On Personal Vehicle Border Crossings Into El Paso" (2018). Open Access Theses & Dissertations. 16. https://digitalcommons.utep.edu/open_etd/16 This is brought to you for free and open access by DigitalCommons@UTEP. It has been accepted for inclusion in Open Access Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@UTEP. For more information, please contact [email protected]. EFFECTS OF WAIT TIMES AND BRIDGE TOLLS ON PERSONAL VEHICLE BORDER CROSSINGS INTO EL PASO OMAR SOLIS Master’s Program in Economics APPROVED: Thomas Fullerton Jr., Ph.D., Chair Rigoberto Delgado, Ph.D. Dennis Bixler-Márquez, Ph.D. Charles Ambler, Ph.D. Dean of the Graduate School EFFECTS OF WAIT TIMES AND BRIDGE TOLLS ON PERSONAL VEHICLE BORDER CROSSINGS INTO EL PASO by OMAR SOLIS, B.S. THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at El Paso in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE Department of Economics and Finance THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT EL PASO December 2018 Abstract Wait times at international ports of entry (POE) increase overall travel costs and negatively affect establishments at the border by raising costs and reducing efficiency. This study employs linear transfer function analysis to model northbound personal vehicle traffic flows across three international bridges that link Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico and El Paso, Texas, USA. The analysis attempts to build upon prior regional studies that examine the effects of tolls, exchange rates, and economic conditions on cross-border traffic volumes. This is done by incorporating a fairly unique data set of wait times into the equation specifications. Empirical results confirm inverse relationships between traffic flows and tolls, as well as between tolls and wait time, at each bridge. Substitution effects between structures are also observed. For the tolled ports of entry, dollar-equivalent toll estimates of the wait time effects are approximated using bridge-specific coefficients. A regional average of the cost effect is used to calculate a similar estimate for the un-tolled bridge. As value of time measures, wait time toll equivalents are used to estimate time- related crossing costs at each POE. To further assess model reliabilities, out-of-sample simulations are also utilized. U-statistics and error-differential regressions are deployed as tools for comparing LTF accuracies relative to those of random walk benchmarks. iii Table of Contents Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................... iv List of Tables ...................................................................................................................................v List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ vi Chapter 1: Introduction ....................................................................................................................1 Chapter 2: Literature Review ...........................................................................................................4 Chapter 3: Data and Methodology ...................................................................................................7 Chapter 4: Empirical Results .........................................................................................................25 Chapter 5: Comparative Simulation Results ..................................................................................35 Chapter 6: Conclusion....................................................................................................................50 References ......................................................................................................................................53 Data Appendix ...............................................................................................................................55 Vita 63 iv List of Tables Table 1. Variables and units of measure ...................................................................................... 14 Table 2. Hypothesized effects on bridge crossings ...................................................................... 14 Table 3. Paso del Norte northbound small vehicles (BCPN)....................................................... 26 Table 4. Ysleta-Zaragoza northbound small vehicles (BCYN) ................................................... 28 Table 5. Bridge of the Americas northbound small vehicles (BCAN) ........................................ 31 Table 6. Paso del Norte northbound small vehicles U-statistics .................................................. 36 Table 7. Paso del Norte U-statistic decompositions .................................................................... 37 Table 8. Paso del Norte Ashley et al. (1980) error-differential regression results ...................... 38 Table 9. Ysleta-Zaragoza northbound small vehicles U-statistics ............................................... 40 Table 10. Ysleta-Zaragoza U-statistic decompositions ............................................................... 41 Table 11. Ysleta-Zaragoza Ashley et al. (1980) error-differential regression results ................. 42 Table 12. Bridge of the Americas northbound small vehicles U-statistics .................................. 44 Table 13. Bridge of the Americas U-statistic decompositions .................................................... 45 Table 14. Bridge of the Americas Ashley et al. (1980) error-differential regression results ...... 46 Table 15. U-statistic and Ashley et al. (1980) accuracy comparisons ......................................... 48 Table 16. USCPI, NEXR, and Northbound Border Crossings Data ............................................ 55 Table 17. Northbound Personal Vehicle Toll data....................................................................... 57 Table 18. WTPN, WTYN, and WTAN Data ............................................................................... 59 Table 19. CJIMX, ELPM, REXR, and MXIP Data ..................................................................... 61 v List of Figures Figure 1. Paso del Norte: Time Series of Personal Vehicles and Wait Times .............................. 9 Figure 2. Paso del Norte: Personal Vehicle Traffic Against Wait Times ................................... 10 Figure 3. Ysleta-Zaragoza: Time Series of Personal Vehicles and Wait Times ......................... 10 Figure 4. Ysleta-Zaragoza: Personal Vehicle Traffic Against Wait Times ................................ 11 Figure 5. Bridge of the Americas: Time Series of Personal Vehicles and Wait Times .............. 11 Figure 6. Bridge of the Americas: Personal Vehicle Traffic Against Wait Times ..................... 12 vi Chapter 1: Introduction Cross-border transportation plays a major role in the economies of many United States border cities. One analysis determines that Mexican nationals directly support 10% of economic activity and employment in the Rio Grande Valley of south-central Texas (Ghaddar et al., 2004). In the same study, survey respondents further indicate that crossing times of two hours or longer act as deterrents to cross-border travel. A separate effort for the San Diego area finds that decreasing border wait times increase firm productivity while reducing shipping costs (ERB, 2008). Shorter cross-border wait times also increase the volumes of personal expenditures on both sides of the border due to improved consumer time usage efficiency. Large numbers of cross-border shoppers and other visitors transit the United States-Mexico border each year. More than 74 million personal vehicle border crossings from Mexico to the United States are estimated to have occurred in 2015, with 12 million crossing through a port of entry (POE) located in El Paso (BTS, 2016). This analysis focuses on northbound personal vehicle crossings through El Paso POEs because of the availability of a unique dataset on personal vehicle wait times for this area. The sample period for this analysis corresponds to the interval for which border crossing wait time data are available, August 2010 to December 2016. The cities of El Paso and Ciudad Juarez are connected by a network of four international bridges that span the Rio Grande River—the natural landmark that delineates the border between Texas and Mexico. Of the four, tolls are charged to travelers moving into and out of the country on three of the bridges. The untolled bridge is the Bridge of the Americas and the three tolled 1 bridges are the Paso del Norte or Santa Fe Street Bridge, the Stanton Street Bridge, and the Ysleta or Zaragoza Street Bridge. Of the tolled arteries, the Paso del Norte and Ysleta-Zaragoza POEs allow all personal vehicle traffic while northbound crossing on the Stanton Street Bridge is only allowed for vehicles enrolled
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