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Land Supply Assessment Warkworth Market Analysis September 2018 Prepared for: Warkworth Land Company Limited c/o Development Advisory Services Limited Prepared by: Colliers International TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................. 2 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH ........................................ 16 SUMMARY: RESIDENTIAL DEMAND ........................ 25 TABLE OF FIGURES ................................................. 3 Rodney Ward Employment Profile – Skill Level SUMMARY: LOCATIONAL BENEFITS ....................... 26 ......................................................................... 16 PURPOSE ............................................................... 4 Rodney Ward Employment Profile – Growth SUMMARY: ECONOMIC STIMULATION .................... 27 Industries ......................................................... 17 KEY FINDINGS ......................................................... 5 Rodney Ward - Employment Growth ............... 18 APPENDICES......................................................... 28 ECONOMIC PROFILE AND GROWTH ......................... 7 INDUSTRIAL VACANT LAND .................................... 19 Appendix 1: Auckland Local Board and Ward Rodney Local Board - Overview ....................... 7 Area Map ......................................................... 28 Industrial Vacant Land Analysis ...................... 19 Rodney Local Board - Outcomes ..................... 7 Appendix 2: ANZSIC by Property Sector ...... 28 Rodney Ward - Gross Domestic Product ......... 8 Appendix 3: Target Catchment – Demographic RESIDENTIAL SALES TRENDS ................................ 20 Rodney Ward - Building Consents ................... 9 Analysis ........................................................... 28 Sales Volume – Residential Dwelling .............. 20 Appendix 4: Target Catchment – Residential TARGET CATCHMENT – DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS 10 Analysis ........................................................... 28 INFRASTRUCTURE ................................................ 21 Appendix 5: Population Growth Projections by TARGET CATCHMENT – RESIDENTIAL SALES Future Projects - Ara Tūhono – Warkworth to Age Group (2013-2038) (Percentage) ............ 28 ANALYSIS ............................................................. 11 Appendix 6: Population Growth Projections by Wellsford .......................................................... 21 Ethnic Group (2013-2038) (Percentage) ......... 28 Future Projects - SH1 Dome Valley ................ 22 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS .................................... 12 Appendix 7: Population Growth Projections by Future Projects - Hill Street Improvements ..... 22 Population and Household Projections ........... 12 Future Projects - Ara Tūhono – Pūhoi to Family and Household Arrangement (2013- 2038) (Percentage) ......................................... 28 Population Projections – Age Group .............. 13 Warkworth ....................................................... 23 Population Projections – Ethnic Group ........... 14 Future Projects - Ara Tūhono – Pūhoi to Population Projections – Household Wellsford .......................................................... 24 Arrangement ................................................... 15 Future Projects - New Network for Warkworth 24 Whilst all care has been taken to provide reasonably accurate information within this report, Colliers International cannot guarantee the validity of all data and information utilised in preparing this research. Accordingly Colliers International New Zealand Limited, do not make any representation of warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the content contained herein and no legal liability is to be assumed or implied with respect thereto. © All content is Copyright Colliers International New Zealand Limited 2017, Colliers International - Research and Consulting Licensed REAA 2008 and may not be reproduced without expressed permission. TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Warkworth Site ..................................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 2: Rodney Local Board ............................................................................................................................. 7 Figure 3: Rodney Ward Gross Domestic Product by Sector ................................................................................ 8 Figure 4: Rodney Ward Residential Building Consent ......................................................................................... 9 Figure 5: Rodney Ward Commercial Building Consent ........................................................................................ 9 Figure 6: Target Catchment Map - Demographic Analysis ................................................................................ 10 Figure 7: Target Catchment Map - Residential Sales Analysis .......................................................................... 11 Figure 8: Population and Household Growth Projections (2013-2038) ............................................................... 12 Figure 9: Population Growth Projections by Age Group (2013-2038) ................................................................. 13 Figure 10: Population Growth Projections by Ethnic Group (2013-2038) ........................................................... 14 Figure 11: Population Growth Projections by Household Arrangement (2013-2038) .......................................... 15 Figure 12: Rodney Ward Employment by Skill Level 2017 ................................................................................ 16 Figure 13: Rodney Ward – Top 15 Industries by Number of Jobs Filled ............................................................ 17 Figure 14: Rodney Ward Employment Growth by Sector ................................................................................... 18 Figure 15: Industrial Vacant Land Analysis – Auckland vs Rodney .................................................................... 19 Figure 16: Industrial Vacant Land – by Rodney Suburb Level ........................................................................... 19 Figure 17: Industrial Vacant Land – by Rodney Parcel Size .............................................................................. 19 Figure 18: Number of Residential Sales – Warkworth ....................................................................................... 20 Figure 19: Number of Residential Sales - Target Market ................................................................................... 20 Figure 20: Number of Residential Sales – North Shore ..................................................................................... 20 Figure 21: Pukekohe Station Project ................................................................................................................. 21 Figure 22: SH1 Dome Valley ............................................................................................................................. 22 Figure 23: Ara Tūhono – Pūhoi to Warkworth .................................................................................................... 23 Figure 24: Ara Tūhono – Pūhoi to Wellsford ...................................................................................................... 24 Figure 25: Pūhoi to Wellsford ............................................................................................................................ 26 Colliers International - Research and Consulting PURPOSE Warkworth Land Company Limited c/o Development Figure 1: Warkworth Site Advisory Services Limited has requested Colliers International to undertake research on the following matters: • The demand for growth within the Warkworth area, and in Warkworth North in particular. • An analysis of a logical distribution of growth across Warkworth. • An analysis of the economic stimulation that this development will give to the Warkworth economy. Source: Development Advisory Services Limited Colliers International - Research and Consulting 4 KEY FINDINGS Economic Profile and Growth Residential Demand The industrial sector is Rodney Ward’s highest producing sector in terms of gross The majority of residential sales in Warkworth are three and four-bedroom dwelling domestic profit, however it is the lowest growth industry. Office is the second highest sales. producing sector and the highest growth industry. Household growth forecasts estimate 456 homes will be needed in Warkworth area In Rodney Ward, in the two years to June 2018 a total of 1,787 residential dwellings unit and 424 in Cape Rodney South, the other most relevant area unit, an average have been consented (an average of 894 per annum). Commercial consents of 88 per annum to accommodate one household per dwelling, in each of the next average only 45 per annum in the same period but the trend is upwards. 10 years (2018-2028). Industries employing the most people in the Rodney Ward are Construction, Health Using REINZ data, North Shore’s median of $1.048m in the last six months, Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, and Accommodation and Food Services compared to Warkworth’s equivalent of $745,000, offers a compelling incentive for and are also the top growth industries. households to locate in Warkworth particularly as the increasing population will trigger amenity improvements over time. In Rodney Ward, it is estimated that there will be 2,000 new jobs by 2023. If each of the 2,000 new jobs in Rodney
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