Lower Merion School District Enrollment Study
Lower Merion School District Enrollment Study
Prepared By The Montgomery County Planning Commission
April 27, 2015
Board of School Directors
Dr. Robin Vann Lynch - President Dr. Melissa Gilbert - Vice President Laurie Actman Diane DiBonaventuro Ben Driscoll Dr. Marissa Golden Dr. Maureen O'Leary Virginia Pollard Subha Robinson
Acting Superintendent Dr. Wagner Marseille, Ed.D.
Table of Contents
Introduction ...... 1
Summary of Key Findings ...... 3 School District Characteristics Population ...... 5
Birth Patterns ...... 7
School District Enrollment...... 9
Alternative School Enrollment ...... 11 Housing Activity Impacts of Housing on Enrollment ...... 15
Housing Units Built ...... 17
Housing Units Proposed ...... 19
Housing Sales ...... 21 District Enrollment Projections Cohort Progression Model ...... 25
Projected Enrollment Summaries ...... 29
Indicators of Projection Change ...... 33
School Profiles ...... 37
Appendix ...... 50
LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
Introduction The study employs the use of a cohort progression model to account for the above factors and form School districts can only plan for their future if they projections for each grade level over the next ten have some idea of what that future will entail. The years. The progression model tracks changes in number of students that will need to be served by grade sizes as they progress each year into the district facilities is the key variable that must be following grade. Over time, the averages of those understood in order to make prudent decisions. progression rates are applied to future grade sizes. This report gives an overview of the population and The additional data and analysis in this report help housing characteristics within the Lower Merion not only explain what has happened in the past but School District (LMSD) in order to establish the also how it will affect the future. These important conditions that have formed the most recent data points should be reviewed every year to enrollment trends. Future enrollments will depend determine if unanticipated activity is occurring and largely upon the following factors: how that might influence the projections and actual Recent and future births enrollments down the line. Housing activity Three years ago, the district hired another consultant, DeJong-Healy, who also used a cohort progression Moves in and out of the school district model to project enrollments. Those projections for Private, charter, home, and cyber school change the overall district have turned out to be fairly accurate after three years. The DeJong numbers for individual buildings were less accurate, especially pertaining to some of the elementary schools. This report is intended to improve upon the remaining projection years from the previous study by incorporating the most recent data and also utilizing detailed geographic information kept on record by the county. More specific and accurate projections for individual buildings and attendance boundaries are expected.
1 ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 1: District School Locations and Elementary School Boundary Areas
n n Belmont Hills ES Welsh Valley MS n n Cynwyd ESn Gladwyne ES n Cynwyd MS Penn Valley ES
n Harriton HS n Merion ES n Lower Merion HS
Belmont Hills Cynwyd n Gladwyne Penn Wynne ES Merion ´ Penn Valley Penn Wynne
2 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
multifamily units will continue to draw even more average almost 100 additional students per year Summary of Key Findings public school children as they offer the lowest barrier for the next five years before starting to decline The Lower Merion School District is in the midst of to families that want to send their children to a high again over the second five year period. A total a major growth spurt that has increased enrollment quality district. of 304 students will be added after ten years. by more than one thousand students over the last five The report implements these findings into three years. This report is intended to identify the most The high schools have been less subject to projection scenarios based on recent trends and a likely causes for this recent growth and then assess growth swings over the last ten years, but that variety of adjustments stemming from observable those causes to best determine how enrollment will will change. Increases in high school enrollment changes in demographic and enrollment patterns. be influenced over the next ten years. will rise throughout the next decade with peak The scenarios result in a high, medium, and low gains scheduled six to eight years out. The total Enrollment growth stems first from the overall projection, but all three options indicate considerable for the high schools will top 3,500 by 2024, an quality, reputation, and appeal of the Lower Merion growth on top of what has already happened in the increase of 1,000 students. School District. This is an underlying driver of all district. A near term reversal of recent growth is factors contributing towards growth, but there are at These are substantial growth figures, especially for virtually impossible since new students from the last the middle and high school levels. They are least three specific factors that have driven the few years are now in the system, especially in the district’s recent growth: supported by real data trends that are already younger grade levels, and most will remain in the occurring within Lower Merion. This report Students in Lower Merion and Narberth have system through their educational life. The forces that highlights those trends and provides the district with been enrolling in private schools at an brought them into the district may still be at work the expectations and understanding needed to plan exceedingly lower rate compared to public bringing more students as well. However, the ahead. school. Whereas about 38% of school-age projected growth will not affect all school levels and Additionally, the appeal of the district to outsiders children were in private school a decade ago, buildings the same. only about 32% attend private school today. should remain at a high level. Many people are The most likely projection scenario, referenced as embracing a more urban lifestyle, especially the This could be a swing of as many as 600-700 Option 2– Medium, implements the progression younger generation of millennials. Lower Merion students going to public school that would not model and adjusts it with increases for additional and Narberth provide walkability, proximity to have ten years ago. students brought on by new multifamily construction employment, public transportation, and one of the Multifamily homes, mostly rental apartments, and more students coming out of existing shortest commutes into downtown Philadelphia. are providing a greater number of public school multifamily developments. The following results are They also still maintain many suburban conveniences children than before. The rate has almost from Option 2: and advantages, including a high quality public doubled over the last eight years. Overall district enrollment will increase by education. Home sales have increased and a greater rate of 1,248 students over the next ten years, with public school students are coming out of these growth at its strongest during the first five of homes that have sold compared to those that those years. Enrollment peaks eight years out in have left the district. 2022, followed by slight declines. These three factors have measurably increased The elementary school level, which has grown enrollments in the LMSD and this growth will the most in recent years, will increase for continue since these additional students are now in another year or two before starting to come back the system progressing through higher grade levels. down. Enrollment should actually be lower than Note: All projection numbers have been rounded Additional growth pressure may come from over the current total at the end of the ten year study for the sake of simplicity in this report. The original 2,000 units of new multifamily housing proposed in period. precise numbers are kept intact within the models to the district. Many of these units are not necessarily The middle school level will start to pick up maintain integrity, so the addition of rounded suited for families with young children, but the large some of the elementary school growth as numbers in a given table may not exactly equal the number promises some impact. Also, existing students cycle through and enrollment will sum as shown. However, any sum total should be
3
School District Characteristics Part
LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
School District Characteristics Population with the recent spate in apartment proposals that may add as many as 2,000 more living units to the The general population within the Lower Merion Population district. However, it is important to recognize that School District, which comprises Lower Merion population totals do not necessarily reflect changes Township and Narberth Borough, declined by 1.4% in the numbers of school-age children or public Birth Patterns from 2000 to 2010. This reversed a similarly sized school enrollment figures. While the overall gain from the previous decade. Lower Merion and population may grow within the district, other factors School District Enrollment Narberth are considered built-out mature suburbs, so such as shifts in age cohorts, migration of young population changes since 1970 have generally gone families, and school attendance choice within that Alternative School Enrollment down due to changes in household compositions with population can have more pronounced effects on the some redevelopment compensating for those losses. numbers of public school children in the future. Regional projections are calling for the population to slightly increase again through 2020. Population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau confirm that growth through 2013 has occurred close to the forecasted rate. The general trend for the immediate future is continued modest growth based on a steady changeover of some sites with denser housing development. The rate of increase should hasten
FIGURE 2: Population of Lower Merion School District, 1980-2020
64,500
64,000
63,500
63,000
62,500
62,000
61,500
61,000 1980 19 90 2000 2010 2020 (projected) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, except 2020 Projections (DVRPC and MCPC)
5 ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 3: Population Totals, 1990-2020 1990 2000 2010 2020 (Forecasted) 1980‐1990 1980‐1990 1990‐2000 1990‐2000 2000‐2010 2000‐2010 2010‐2020 2010‐2020 Total Change Percent Total Change Percent Total Change Percent Total Change Percent Lower Merion SD 62,281 ‐1,844 ‐2.9% 62,973 692 1.1% 62,107 ‐866 ‐1.4% 62,905 798 1.3% Montgomery County 678,111 34,740 5.4% 748,987 70,876 10.5% 799,874 50,887 6.8% 823,564 23,690 3.0%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, except 2020 Forecasts (DVRPC and MCPC)
Age Cohorts and School Age Children suggest major shifts in enrollment if no other factors children in their households or have seen them move were involved, but we know that is not the case based out in recent years. The effect is that there may be Age data from the last three decennial censuses on the actual enrollment levels throughout the fewer children per household as these people age, but reveal patterns in how the demographics of the decade. that effect will also be countered by seniors moving Lower Merion School District have changed. The The remaining cohorts show that the population aged to other types of housing or downsizing, providing cohort that best represents school age children is the opportunities for younger families to move in. 5-17 year old group. This cohort increased 45-54 years old represents a “bubble” where there are dramatically during the 1990s but then remained disproportionately more people in this age range. The remaining ages in between the previously fairly steady from 2000 to 2010 with only a slight This age group along with the 55-64 year old group mentioned cohorts, the 25-44 year old population, decrease. These figures include all children, not just roughly account for the baby boomers and the cause declined by large numbers in 2010. These people are public school students. The younger cohort, 0-4 year for why places like the Lower Merion School District the most likely to have babies and their decline olds (pre-school age), also remained at a similar level and Montgomery County are said to be home to an heralds a period of lower birth activity, which can in 2010 compared to 2000. This snapshot would not aging population. These people may still have ultimately result in fewer students enrolling for kindergarten six years later.
FIGURE 4: Age Cohorts, Lower Merion School District, 1990-2010 This shifting of age cohorts over time is usually a good place to start when considering why 1990 2000 2010 enrollments cycle up and down, but they are only one 1980‐1990 1990‐2000 2000‐2010 part of the picture when it comes to explaining and Age Cohort Total Change Total Change Total Change predicting what will happen with school enrollment in the Lower Merion School District. 0‐4 3,496 893 3,207 ‐289 3,251 44 5‐17 8,871 ‐2,543 10,737 1,866 10,709 ‐28 18‐24 6,385 ‐1,480 5,491 ‐894 5,933 442 25‐34 7,448 ‐678 6,639 ‐809 5,360 ‐1,279 35‐44 9.892 2,351 8,599 ‐1,293 7,448 ‐1,151 45‐54 7,834 453 10,028 2,194 9,195 ‐833 55‐64 6,546 ‐1,356 6,692 146 8,899 2,207 65‐74 6,189 ‐355 5,282 ‐907 5,391 109 75 and over 5,620 849 6,298 678 5.921 ‐377 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
6 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
School District Characteristics Birth Patterns 547 from 2010-2013. Births have dropped in the The number of births in an area is an important 2011 and 2012 school years, but they are expected to Population component to projecting future enrollment in a have gone back up in 2013 based on an estimate school district. While some families will migrate using partial year data available. Birth Patterns over time, births provide a beginning indicator of the This general decline over the last decade or more is potential size of future kindergarten classes. This not just relative to the LMSD. Countywide, birth relationship will be detailed in the cohort progression School District Enrollment totals have also fallen since 2008. Has the downturn model (p. 25-28), but it is important to note that in the economy starting with the Great Recession in
existing birth data influences what will happen with 2008 driven this decline in births? Logically, it Alternative School Enrollment entering students over the first five years of the would make sense for some to defer or delay projection period. Also note that annual birth totals decisions to have children based on economic are aligned to match the school calendar year uncertainty in one’s life. Some studies have looked (September—August) in order to make the most at national population bases, both the United States accurate correlations to future kindergarten classes. and globally, and determined that overall fertility The trend for live births since 1998 in the Lower rates do decline with downturns in the economy. Merion School District is a general decrease over However, in the Lower Merion School District, the time. Looking at four-year increments, the average rate of decline since the recession has not been any number of births has gone from 631 in 1998-2001 to faster than the years preceeding it. The countywide
FIGURE 5: Number of Live Births in Lower Merion School District by School Calendar Year (Sept.-Aug.)
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
* Births during the 2014 months in the 2013-2014 school year were estimated due to state data being unreleased at the time of this report. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Health
7 ENROLLMENT STUDY pattern, and that of many other districts, appears ages of 25-34. The population of women in that age Birth Rates more closely aligned to the timing of the recession. group from the LMSD dropped from 3,400 in 2000 Birth rates are a different statistic than live births. The economy can have an impact as it influences to 2,804 in 2010, a loss of over 17%. Figure 7 An increase or decrease in actual births could be factors such as housing construction and sales identifies age cohorts for females of child-bearing explained by concurrent growth or decline in the activity, but it alone should not be considered the age. Interestingly, all other cohorts for females of population base, but birth rates average out the cause for declines in births in the LMSD. Therefore, child-bearing age also decreased across the decade. number of live births per 1,000 persons in an area. future improvements in the economy may not have a These demographics do not give cause to suggest The statistics in Figure 9 confirm that the trend of strong effect on driving births upward again. that the 25-34 year old female cohort will increase lower birth activity is not solely caused by an overall Attempting to pinpoint the causes of change in birth by 2020. However, the countywide forecasts reduction in population. totals over time is difficult, but another clue comes adopted by DVRPC show that this age group is from looking at the population of child-bearing age ascending in number and will continue to do so women. According to the Pennsylvania Department through at least 2025. New apartment construction FIGURE 8: Birth Rates (Births Per 1,000 Popula- of Health, birth activity in Montgomery County is at and an increase in housing sales activity could still tion) in LMSD by Calendar Year (Jan.-Dec.) its highest when potential mothers are between the bring about more younger women of child bearing age into the LMSD and thus increase the chances for Montgomery greater annual births, but severe changes are not Calendar Year LMSD County FIGURE 6: Number of Live Births in LMSD anticipated. 2003 9.8 12.7 by School Calendar Year (Sept.-Aug.) 2004 8.9 12.3 FIGURE 7: Females of Child-Bearing Age 2005 9.3 12.1 School Year LMSD in LMSD, 2000 and 2010 2006 9.5 12.3 2000‐01 621 2007 9.2 11.9 2001‐02 660 Age Cohort 2000 Females 2010 Females 2008 9.4 12.1 2002‐03 588 Age 15 ‐ 19 2,711 2,683 2009 8.8 11.7 2003‐04 568 Age 20 ‐ 24 2,660 2,283 2010 9.1 11.4 2004‐05 582 Age 25 ‐ 29 1,589 1,391 2011 9.3 11.2 2005‐06 604 Age 30 ‐ 34 1,811 1,413 2012 8.6 11.0 2006‐07 566 Age 35 ‐ 39 2,199 1,824 2013 8.4 10.7 2007‐08 573 Age 40 ‐ 44 2,480 2,168 2008‐09 560 Sources: Pennsylvania Department of Health, U.S. Census Bureau Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2009‐10 543 2010‐11 569 2011‐12 536 2012‐13 526 2013‐14* 555 * Births during the 2014 months in the 2013-2014 school year were estimated due to state data being unreleased at the time of this report. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Health (modified by MCPC from detailed address review of files)
8 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
School District Characteristics School District Enrollment Over the last six years, district enrollment has grown Population by 18%, adding 1,241 students and reaching more than 8,000 total students. Looking further back, the Birth Patterns district has been adding students on a fairly regular basis since 1989, when enrollment was only around School District Enrollment 5,200 students. The recent growth has been somewhat unexpected in its rate of increase given the Alternative School Enrollment lack of an appreciable population or housing construction gain. Looking at the school level
distributions in Figures 9 and 10, growth is observable at each of the three levels in the district, but it is most pronounced within the K-5 or elementary level. This study is intended to answer the question of how much growth will continue within the district, but it is clear that enrollment should continue to grow in the immediate future. The swelling early grade levels today will advance through the system and replace likely smaller class sizes that came before them.
FIGURE 9: School District Enrollment by Grade Divisions, 2005-2014
9,000
8,000
7,000 6,000 K‐5 5,000
4,000 6‐8
3,000 9‐12 2,000 Total K‐ 1,000 12
0 2005‐ 2006‐ 2007‐ 2008‐ 2009‐ 2010‐ 2011‐ 2012‐ 2013‐ 2014‐ 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Source: Lower Merion School District (enrollment as of the 10th day of each school year)
9 ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 10: District Enrollment by Division, 2005-2014
Total Number Change Percent Change Year K‐12 from Previous Year from Previous Year Grade K‐5 Grade 6‐8 Grade 9‐12 2005‐06 6,899 140 2.1% 2,774 1,657 2,468 2006‐07 6,945 46 0.7% 2,863 1,610 2,472 2007‐08 6,920 ‐25 ‐0.4% 2,943 1,586 2,391 2008‐09 6,812 ‐108 ‐1.6% 2,961 1,583 2,268 2009‐10 6,952 140 2.1% 3,039 1,614 2,299 2010‐11 7,142 190 2.7% 3,140 1,660 2,342 2011‐12 7,360 218 3.1% 3,286 1,728 2,346 2012‐13 7,682 322 4.4% 3,399 1,808 2,475 2013‐14 7,859 177 2.3% 3,508 1,866 2,485 2014‐15 8,053 194 2.5% 3,659 1,874 2,520 Source: Lower Merion School District (enrollment as of the 10th day of each school year)
FIGURE 11: District Enrollment by Grade, 2005-2014
Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2005‐06 317 470 522 467 484 514 490 570 597 587 637 642 602 2006‐07 366 480 485 549 484 499 533 501 576 613 583 624 652 2007‐08 353 522 504 509 552 503 514 560 512 568 608 594 621 2008‐09 352 494 536 517 505 557 499 523 561 515 560 601 592 2009‐10 391 518 521 551 533 525 562 514 538 602 528 563 606 2010‐11 411 528 539 544 571 547 549 584 527 584 620 547 591 2011‐12 413 585 556 564 568 600 564 564 600 573 589 635 549 2012‐13 438 602 614 572 580 593 630 593 585 656 579 601 639 2013‐14 449 630 616 640 585 588 603 662 601 614 677 587 607 2014‐15 454 621 658 660 660 606 610 604 660 642 610 671 597
Source: Lower Merion School District (enrollment as of the 10th day of each school year)
10 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
School District Characteristics Alternative School Enrollment students that could be in public school as opposed to private. However, we must also acknowledge that Potential alternative schooling choices include these Census figures are subject to a margin of error Population private schools, charter/cyber schools, and and the level of accuracy diminishes with shorter homeschooling. Enrollment in these schools are time frames and smaller geographies. Birth Patterns enumerated from several data sources and do not The Lower Merion School District also keeps data on always have a consistent historical record. Further confusing matters is that charter and most cyber residents that attend private school through its School District Enrollment schools are also considered public schools. monitoring of district bus records which include public and private school students. However, the Private Schools Alternative School Enrollment data is incomplete as it only recognizes students who While public school enrollment has been increasing over the last six years, the opposite appears to have occurred with private school enrollment for residents FIGURE 13: Private School Enrollment According in Lower Merion and Narberth. National and district to LMSD Bus Records data sources both show a considerable decline for private school enrollment in recent years. School Year Private School Students The U.S. Census Bureau and its American 2006‐2007 3,296 Community Survey (ACS) provides data on public versus private school enrollment, which is probably 2007‐2008 3,328 the most straightforward assessment of trends. 2008‐2009 3,240 However, these figures are still estimates with a 2009‐2010 3,078 margin of error and they rely upon the accuracy of individuals filling out questionnaires. Figure 12 2010‐2011 2,914 shows the available data that can be compared from 2011‐2012 2,854 the Census and ACS. 2012‐2013 2,758 The Census Bureau indicates that private school enrollment has gone from 38.7% of school-age 2013‐2014 2,674 children in 2000 to only 32.6% from 2011-2013. 2014‐2015 2,719 Such a decrease is a swing of approximately 700 Note: Data only recognizes private school students that opt for LMSD bus transportation. FIGURE 12: Private School Enrollment According Source: Lower Merion School District Bus Records to U.S. Census Bureau
Private School Percent in Private Year Students School Dataset
2000 4,174 38.7% Census 2000, ACS, 3 Year Es mates, 2013* 3,470 32.6% 2011‐2013
* 3 Year Estimates from the ACS are an average of 3 years worth of sampling data
11 ENROLLMENT STUDY are using the district’s public buses. The bus data in Homeschooling Figure 13 goes back to the 2006-07 school year and The last alternative, which is not considered public supports a general decrease in private school schooling, is homeschooling where the parent is students. This data shows a gradual pattern of responsible for educating the child. District records decline, but the numbers appear to drop by a similar show that there were 43 students being margin assuming that non-district transported homeschooled within the LMSD during the 2013- students fell at a similar rate. 2014 school year. This number has been relatively The level of change in private school students stable over the last four years, but averaged in the 30s compared to the gains in public school enrollment during the middle of the 2000-2010 decade. The reveals a shift that has contributed to growth in the number of homeschooled students in Montgomery district. However, this shift does not appear to be County has been relatively stable over this time based on existing private school students enrolling in period. While these levels should be monitored, the public school due to the economy. The district’s data relatively low numbers still have a minimal impact on incoming student transfers shows that the number on the overall enrollment in the district. of new public students in grades 2-12 coming from local private schools has gone down each of the last four years. The more likely situation is that families moving into the district with children just starting school or not yet there are moving with the intention of enrolling in public school over private at a greater ratio than in the past. While there is no specific data to verify this notion, it seems the most reasonable explanation for the increase in the ratio of public school students to private school students within Lower Merion and Narberth. Charter / Cyber Schools Charter schools are still considered public in that they usually have free tuition and are funded with public dollars. However, they are independently operated and students are not considered in the district enrollment figure. According to the Lower Merion School District, there were 32 students living in the district in 2014-15 that enrolled in charter schools. Most of these were actually cyber charter schools, which are a form of home-based virtual charter schools. These types of schools are relatively new options in the area, first appearing less than ten years ago. The district’s records show that there has been an average of 28 charter school students per year since 2005.
12 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
13
Housing Activity Part
LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
Housing Activity Impacts of Housing on Enrollment The methodology for the report was replicated to just focus on data within the Lower Merion School Impacts of Housing on Enrollment School Age Children by Housing Type District. While there were not enough new units to The average number of school age children in a develop representative figures, existing units were Housing Units Built residential unit depends on the type of residential comparable to the county regarding their disparity between housing types. Multifamily and attached unit. MCPC reviews the latest census data and compares it to county property records as part of its units in the LMSD had fewer children per unit than the Housing Units Proposed report titled, “Characteristics of the Population in county, but detached homes had a higher rate of New and Existing Housing Units.” The latest report, children per unit. These factors can be used to make Housing Sales based on the 2010 Census, contains the average estimates on the impact of different housing types in number of school age children in single family terms of school age children, but it should be noted detached, attached (townhomes and twins), and that the study only considers census blocks of housing multifamily (apartments or multiple units in a that are homogenous. Additional information was structure) housing types. The data is also analyzed in collected for multifamily housing since it is a concern terms of new and existing units. The results of the with current projects being proposed in the district. study (Figure 14) show that a newly constructed Multifamily Housing Analysis single family detached home is over 15 times more The district’s student records from 2006-07, 2010-11, likely to contain a school age child than multifamily and 2014-15 were compared to the addresses of all units. The difference is less stark when considering multifamily developments with 20 or more units in all existing units, but there are clearly more children Lower Merion and Narberth. The results shown in found in detached units than in multifamily units, Figure 15 indicate that the number of public school with single family attached units falling in between children coming from multifamily developments has the other two. been increasing. There were 0.08 public school
FIGURE 14: Average Number of School Aged Children by Housing Unit Type
Montgomery County Single Family Detached Single Family A ached Mul family School Age Children per Household in Exis ng Units 0.55 0.41 0.18 School Age Children per Household in New Units 0.93 0.21 0.06
Lower Merion School District Single Family Detached Single Family A ached Mul family School Age Children per Household in Exis ng Units 0.64 0.31 0.06 School Age Children per Household in New Units NA NA NA Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
15 ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 15: Actual LMSD Data for All Existing FIGURE 16: Percentage of Children in LMSD Area Households Related to Geographic Mobility Multifamily Developments with 20 Units or More Persons Age 1‐4 Persons Age 5‐17 Persons Age 25‐34 Percent Percent of Percent Year LMSD Units Student / Unit Total Persons Number of Total Number Total Number of Total 2006‐07 242 5,385 0.04 Persons in households that have 2010‐11 296 5,514 0.05 moved within the last year 8,135 425 5.2% 922 11.3% 1,759 21.6% 2014‐15 432 5,514 0.08 Persons in households that have Note: Only includes public students and ratio is based on units, remained in the same house 53,537 2,120 4.0% 9,999 18.7% 3,720 6.9% not households. Source: American Community Survey, 2009-2013 Estimates students per existing multifamily unit in the 2014-15 Another analysis using county housing sales data and school year. This is still a fairly low rate, and new have moved within the last year. This latter group district enrollment records was conducted to identify units typically have fewer school-age children then would constitute the characteristics of people who public school students that lived in homes prior to being existing units. are purchasing homes or moving into rental units. sold and students that lived in a home after it was sold. This data also shows that multifamily rental units The results show that the percentage of school age The results in Figure 17, show that the net gain in have a higher rate of public school students (0.12/ children is higher in homes that are occupied by the public students resulting from sales in a specific year unit) than owner-occupied units (0.04/unit). same household as the year before. This would seem has doubled from 2009 to 2013. This suggests that However, many of the children coming out of to indicate that new households will contain fewer recent sales in the LMSD are adding new students into existing rental units are from older developments school age children than homes that have not been the district at a greater rate than sales from five years that may be more affordable to families seeking an sold or rented to a new household. However, what ago. This does not address rental units, but an increase opportunity to enter the LMSD. More expensive this data does not show is who has been replaced by in sales would likely add more students than would luxury apartment rentals like many being proposed the new household. If those new households that do otherwise be expected. may not provide as many public school students. have children are taking the place of a household Owner / Renter Occupied See the Appendix for a full listing of the properties without children, such as an empty nester or Housing in the LMSD is predominately owner studied in this analysis and their student/unit rates. nonfamily household, then the new sale or rental can occupied—75 percent of all occupied units. This is still drive enrollment higher. Migration of Households slightly higher than the rate of home ownership in the The connection between new housing units and new county as a whole. Overall, the rental market has been population is fairly clear, although it also depends on FIGURE 17: Impact of Housing Units Sold on stronger in recent years after the recession and decline the type of units. The impact of household Enrollment of the housing market since 2008. Almost all of the movement in and out of existing housing units is a current multifamily proposals in the LMSD are less certain connection, but it is still incorporated Year of Housing Units Sold 2009 2013 designated to become rental units. Data from the 2010 Census (Figure 18) suggests that children under the age into the cohort progression model. It would be Number of Units Sold 658 976 useful to look at sales data of homes and come to an of 18 are more likely to be found in owner occupied understanding of what might happen with school age Incoming Students at Address of housing than they are in renter occupied housing. children when sales activity increases for one reason Units Sold 165 303 FIGURE 18: Presence of Children Within LMSD or another. Outgoing Students at Address of Percent of Housing The American Community Survey offers data on Units Sold 125 222 with Children Under 18 geographic mobility of households and the age composition of those households. Figure 16 shows a Net Change in Students from Owner Occupied Housing 35% breakdown of households that have remained within Sales Ac vity + 40 + 81 Renter Occupied Housing 20% the same house as the year prior and households that Source: LMSD Records, MCPC Median Price Sales Reports Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census
16 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
Housing Activity Housing Units Built homes in 2012 and 2013. This is expected to continue for the time being as some property owners Impacts of Housing on Enrollment Residential construction activity in Montgomery have assembled groups of smaller lots, often with County hit historic lows following the recession and older detached units located on them, and proceeded housing market bubble burst in 2008. Development Housing Units Built to propose or build more units in order to increase in the LMSD hit its lowest point in 2010 and 2011, the value of their property. but Lower Merion and Narberth are different from Figure 19 shows the last ten years of actual Housing Units Proposed many municipalities due to their older suburban residential construction in the district. Future character with an increasing presence of more urban development is not considered to change drastically Housing Sales types of development. Most of the land is considered with regards to single family detached and attached built out, so new development usually occurs on sites units. However, there has been an immense level of with demolitions or other infill sites that may not interest in higher density multifamily construction. have been fully developed. Changes in the zoning Over 2,000 units are currently being proposed that codes can also spur new development such as recent could see construction within the next 5-6 years. rezoning activity around City Avenue in Bala This construction will need to be considered as an Cynwyd. influence on enrollment growth that is outside of the Development since 2000 has generally consisted of recent construction trends accounted for in the less than 50 units per year except for when a larger projection models. multifamily development gets built, such as the The map in Figure 20 on the following page shows Corinthian Condominiums. The types of units being the most recent developments in the LMSD, built vary from year to year, but all three are fairly recognizing all units built from 2009 through 2013. represented. There has been an upswing in attached
FIGURE 19: Housing Units Built in the LMSD by Housing Type, 2004-2013
200 180 160 140 120 Multifamily 100 Single Family Attached 80 60 Single Family Detached 40 20 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
17 ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 20: Housing Units Built in the LMSD, 2009-2013
n n Belmont Hills ES Welsh Valley MS n n Cynwyd ESn Gladwyne ES n Cynwyd MS Penn Valley ES
n Harriton HS n Merion ES n Lower Merion HS
Legend n Penn Wynne ES BELMONT HILLS CYNWYD Type of Housing Unit Built GLADWYNE Multifamily Units MERION PENN VALLEY Single Family Attached Units PENN WYNNE Single Family Detached Units ´
18 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
Housing Activity Housing Units Proposed and the number of public school children they are likely to house. The number of additional public Impacts of Housing on Enrollment Lower Merion is currently looking at a remarkable school students expected to come from these number of proposed multifamily apartment proposals has also been estimated based upon the buildings. The housing market has started to Housing Units Built county and local student/unit factors, including the improve, but it is the rental market in the existing multifamily development inventory located
Philadelphia region that is currently booming. in the appendix. Approximately 108 new students Housing Units Proposed Recent zoning changes have also encouraged high are expected if all these units get built. See Figure density residential uses along the existing Bala 35 on page 34 for the detailed estimates and Housing Sales Cynwyd office corridor and the Schuylkill riverfront. timelines for each proposal. Due to a lack in Some of these projects have been on the table for multifamily construction over the last five years, a many years and are only now close to coming to housing adjustment is recommended for the fruition. The chart in Figure 21 shows the volume of projections in Part Three. units proposed each year over the last decade. This potential construction will not affect all Proposals are only counted once, but plans will often individual schools equally. Almost half of the new go through multiple submissions and variations as students will fall within the Cynwyd Elementary the process takes place. Not all of those units will be School boundary, and about a third will come into built, but a high percentage of them now have a the Penn Valley Elementary School boundary. strong chance of being constructed. Gladwyne and Merion boundaries will receive no The map in Figure 22 shows the location and number impact. The middle schools and high schools will be of units for the developments that are most likely to pretty evenly disbursed in terms of potential new be built in the next one to six years. Each project has students from these developments, although a few been estimated in terms of its most realistic timeline more will come into the Bala Cynwyd Middle School and Lower Merion High School side. FIGURE 21: Housing Units Proposed in the LMSD, 2004-2013
800
700 600 500 Multifamily 400 Single Family Attached 300 Single Family Detached 200 100 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
19 ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 22: Proposed Housing Developments Expected to be Constructed
601 & 615 Righters Ferry 237 Units
600 Righters Ferry 593 Units
131-151 Rock Hill Rd 332 Units 150 Monument Rd n 207 Units Belmont Hills ES n 335 Righters Ferry Welsh Valley MS 210 Units n n Cynwyd ESn Gladwyne ES n Cynwyd MS Penn Valley ES
n Harriton HS n Merion ES n 331 Penn Rd Lower Merion HS 250 Units
112 Sibley 46 Units Palmer Seminary 24 Cricket Ave 130 Units 110 Units
11-15 E. Athens Ave. 25 Units Legend n Penn Wynne ES BELMONT HILLS CYNWYD GLADWYNE MERION PENN VALLEY PENN WYNNE ´
20 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
Housing Activity Housing Sales in that time. At the county and local levels, these figures still pale in comparison to earlier in the last Impacts of Housing on Enrollment Market-rate housing sales activity in the LMSD has decade, but it is unlikely that the market returns to followed a pattern similar to countywide sales those markers in the foreseeable future. activity. The number of units sold peaked at very The impact of an increase in sales in the LMSD is Housing Units Built high levels in the early to mid 2000s before the that it can spur migration activity in an area that housing boom crashed and the economy entered a features a majority of its housing stock as owner- Housing Units Proposed recession. Sales levels continually declined to occupied housing. It was demonstrated on pages 15- historically low levels through 2011. During this 16 that home sales in recent years have brought more Housing Sales collapse, home values flattened out and often public school children with them. Continual depreciated as financial markets tightened up for increases in sales over the near future could continue potential buyers. this “churning” of households and sustain more The last two years have shown the beginnings of a growth for the district. recovery in the county with the number of home sales rising 31% from 2011 to 2013. That recovery has been even stronger in Lower Merion and Narberth with the number of sales growing by 35%
FIGURE 23: Total Housing Units Sold in the LMSD, 2004-2013
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
21 ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 24: Existing Housing Units Sold in the LMSD, 2009-2013
n n Belmont Hills ES Welsh Valley MS n n Cynwyd ESn Gladwyne ES n Cynwyd MS Penn Valley ES
n Harriton HS n Merion ES n Lower Merion HS
Legend n Penn Wynne ES BELMONT HILLS CYNWYD Type of Housing Unit Sold GLADWYNE MERION Multifamily Units PENN VALLEY Single Family Attached Units PENN WYNNE Single Family Detached Units ´
22 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
23
District Enrollment Projections Part
LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
District Enrollment Projections Cohort Progression Model following year in 2014, it entered the tenth grade and this time it decreased at a rate of 0.993, losing four The method used in this study to calculate Cohort Progression Model projections for each grade level is known as the students by the enrollment figures. Cohort Progression Model, which is also referred to Progression rates between the numbered grades in the Projected Enrollment Summaries as Cohort Survival in some applications. This is a LMSD are high compared to most districts. The fairly common approach and one used by the state average for every grade level above kindergarten is Indicators of Projection Change and other districts in formulating projections. above 1.0. Often, districts with a strong reputation However, it should always be used with caution and for performance will add students at many of the presented in context with the other variables offered early grade levels, but it may become less guaranteed in this report. In some districts there will be cause as students advance. By high school, many districts for adjustments to the model based on changing see progressions below 1.0 due to dropouts and a factors in population growth or migration. lower likelihood of older students transitioning into a The nature of the model allows it to integrate trend new district at this stage of school. activity across a number of variables. Birth rates The six-year average progression rates for the LMSD have the most obvious impacts in the model, but the generally do decrease through the range of grades as changes that take place account for trends in they get higher until the ninth grade. The rate for population migration, housing construction, sales, incoming high school freshmen classes jumps higher and alternative schooling choices, such as private, than any rate since the first grade. This appears to charter, or homeschooling opportunities. have started around the 2009 school year which was The model is fairly straightforward in its method. It also about the time that the two high schools tracks each class in a given year and measures the underwent significant renovations and expansions. change in that class from one year to the next. Then However, some more historic progression rates from it applies an average of changes over a specified time the previous decade also show big jumps at the ninth period to determine the percentage of a given grade grade level. likely to “progress” to the next grade in future years. The magnitude of the progression rates account for A six year average was used for the Lower Merion the trends outlined in this study that are driving up School District, since it would account for enrollment enrollments—public school preference, multifamily patterns from the 2009 through 2014 school years. student ratios, increased home sales, and the essential Figure 25 displays all of the progression rates for attractiveness of the district to families from outside each grade transition from the last nine school years. the district. These rates almost make growth The most recent six year average is calculated to inevitable, even if births or age cohort demographics arrive at a basic trend that will be applied for each might imply otherwise. projected year. Any progression rate that is greater Birth-to-Kindergarten Ratio than 1.0 indicates that a class increased in size from one year to the next as it also moved up a grade level. The projection of future enrollments in the model Progression rates that are lower than 1.0 indicate that requires that we apply the trends in progression rates a class decreased in size. For example, the eighth to future classes as they go from one grade to the grade class of the 2012 school year increased in size next. However, the kindergarten class for each year when it entered the ninth grade in 2013 at a rate of does not have an enrollment figure for its prior year 1.05. Using actual enrollment figures, the class went since those children would be in preschool or home from 585 to 614 students during that period. The care outside of the district system. Therefore, we must use live birth data to identify ratios of births to
25 ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 25: Grade Progression Rates Over the Last Nine Years
School Year Birth‐K* K‐1 1‐2 2‐3 3‐4 4‐5 5‐6 6‐7 7‐8 8‐9 9‐10 10‐11 11‐12 2006‐07 0.589 1.514 1.032 1.052 1.036 1.031 1.037 1.022 1.011 1.027 0.993 0.980 1.016 2007‐08 0.535 1.426 1.050 1.049 1.005 1.039 1.030 1.051 1.022 0.986 0.992 1.019 0.995 2008‐09 0.599 1.399 1.027 1.026 0.992 1.009 0.992 1.018 1.002 1.006 0.986 0.988 0.997 2009‐10 0.687 1.472 1.055 1.028 1.031 1.040 1.009 1.030 1.029 1.073 1.025 1.005 1.008 2010‐11 0.704 1.350 1.041 1.044 1.036 1.026 1.046 1.039 1.025 1.086 1.030 1.036 1.050 2011‐12 0.684 1.423 1.053 1.046 1.044 1.051 1.031 1.027 1.027 1.087 1.009 1.024 1.004 2012‐13 0.768 1.458 1.050 1.029 1.028 1.044 1.050 1.051 1.037 1.093 1.010 1.020 1.006 2013‐14 0.778 1.438 1.023 1.042 1.023 1.014 1.017 1.051 1.013 1.050 1.032 1.014 1.010 2014‐15 0.808 1.383 1.044 1.071 1.031 1.036 1.037 1.002 0.997 1.068 0.993 0.991 1.017 6‐Yr Avg. 2009‐2014 0.738 1.421 1.044 1.044 1.032 1.035 1.032 1.033 1.022 1.076 1.017 1.015 1.016 * The birth-to-kindergarten ratio uses birth data six years prior to the indicated school year, thus drawing the relationship between children born and the year they would actually enter kindergarten.
FIGURE 26: Grade Progression Rates with Historical Comparison
School Year Birth‐K* K‐1 1‐2 2‐3 3‐4 4‐5 5‐6 6‐7 7‐8 8‐9 9‐10 10‐11 11‐12 7 Year Average 1994 –2000 0.432 1.762 1.007 1.015 1.014 1.015 0.993 1.022 1.008 1.027 1.008 1.014 1.013 2002‐03 0.492 1.601 1.016 1.037 1.024 1.035 1.022 1.042 1.037 1.080 1.010 1.012 1.017 2006‐07 0.589 1.514 1.032 1.052 1.036 1.031 1.037 1.022 1.011 1.027 0.993 0.980 1.016 6‐Yr Avg. 2009 ‐2014 0.741 1.421 1.044 1.044 1.032 1.035 1.032 1.033 1.022 1.076 1.017 1.015 1.016 kindergarten. The birth data comes from a given past move away before entry into kindergarten. The occurred from 2009 to 2013. The downside is that an year and is then applied to the kindergarten class that averaging out of the ratios gives us the best estimated birth figure must be used for any projection would follow six years later in order to capture the approximation of the net result of all birth and beyond the 2019 school year. same children at each end of the ratio. For instance, migration activity in the district, but clearly there is Projection Periods a birth-to-kindergarten ratio for the 2014-15 school room for error in any singular instance. year uses birth data from 2008-09 as the numerator Due to the distinction between using real birth data One beneficial aspect of a birth-to-kindergarten ratio and the need to estimate beyond five years, and divides it by the kindergarten enrollment in 2014 is that it allows the model to integrate real data into to form the rate (0.808) shown in Figure 25. enrollment projections are divided into two periods. the first five years of the projection period. In other The primary period covers the first five school years The ratios of births to kindergarten are much lower words, projections of kindergarten classes for the from 2015 to 2019, and the secondary period covers than the yearly grade progression rates. Some will first five years, through the 2019 school year, can the next five school years from 2020 to 2024. There go straight into a private school, and others may account for real changes in birth patterns that have is a higher degree of accuracy expected during the
26 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT primary period than in the secondary period. Recent housing construction. The Multifamily Students OPTION 2—Medium Projection trends are more likely to continue in the short term Adjustment assumes that more students will be Housing and Multifamily Students Adjustments before outside factors can influence a change in moving into existing multifamily properties, thus are included with no further adjustments. patterns, but the use of the birth data also gives a raising the current 0.08 students/unit ratio to 0.1 more dependable start to projecting the size of students/unit by the end of the projection period Estimated births for the next five years are based kindergarten classes in the future. resulting in a gain of 120 additional students over the on an average of the last three years (539 births). Estimated Births next ten years. Private school attendance will remain at its current historically low percent. The projection of kindergarten classes after 2019 Details of the three options are as follows: requires the use of estimated birth figures for the next OPTION 1—High Projection OPTION 3—Low Projection five years. A simple approach to estimate these Housing and Multifamily Students Adjustments Housing and Multifamily Students Adjustments births is to use an average of the most recent birth are included. figures and extend it through the end of the are included. projection period. Increase in Housing Sales Activity - An Private school attendance will begin to cycle back to a higher percentage than the present, Projected Enrollments adjustment that provides for 93 additional students over ten years to reflect an increase in thus reducing the number of students enrolled in Figures 27, 28, and 29 offer three variations of grade housing sales to 1,100 units per year by 2017. public school. The mechanism used to account by grade projections over the next ten years. They for this change is substituting a 9-year average have been designated as High, Medium, and Low, Increase in Estimated Births - The future births of progression rates instead of a 6-year average. simply by the level of growth that they support. Each estimated for the next five years that will impact Three additional years of older rates brings the option differs by the assumptions that are made along entering classes between 2020 and 2024. has rates down to a level closer to the period when a with designated adjustments to each model. All three been increased to progressively reach 600 births, higher percentage of school-age children were options include the same housing adjustment and cycling back to birth rates in line with ten years going to public school. See Figure 30 for rates. increase in multifamily students adjustment. The ago. Estimated births for the next five years are based Housing Adjustment incorporates the 108 additional Private school attendance will remain at its on an average of the last three years (539 births). students over time expected from likely multifamily current historically low percent.
FIGURE 27: Projected Enrollments, OPTION 1—High Projection Births 6 School Year Years Ago* K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL 2015‐16 543 404 647 650 688 683 685 627 632 619 712 654 621 683 8,303 2016‐17 569 426 576 677 681 713 709 709 650 648 668 726 666 633 8,480 2017‐18 536 406 608 606 712 708 743 737 737 669 702 684 742 682 8,736 2018‐19 526 403 578 639 636 739 736 770 765 757 724 718 699 758 8,923 2019‐20 555 427 570 605 669 659 767 762 798 784 816 738 731 712 9,037 2020‐21 564 436 602 596 633 692 684 793 789 817 844 832 751 744 9,212 2021‐22 573 444 613 630 623 654 717 706 820 807 879 860 846 764 9,365 2022‐23 582 453 625 641 658 644 678 741 731 839 869 895 874 861 9,509 2023‐24 591 461 636 653 670 680 668 701 767 748 903 884 910 889 9,570 2024‐25 600 469 647 665 682 693 705 690 725 784 805 919 899 926 9,609 * The birth figure for each row does not pertain to births during that year, but rather the births that occurred six years prior to the projected year.
27 ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 28: Projected Enrollments, OPTION 2—Medium Projection Births 6 School Year Years Ago* K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL 2015‐16 543 404 646 650 688 682 684 626 632 618 711 654 620 683 8298 2016‐17 569 425 575 676 680 712 708 708 649 647 667 725 665 632 8468 2017‐18 536 405 606 604 710 706 741 735 736 667 700 682 740 680 8713 2018‐19 526 401 575 637 634 736 734 768 763 755 721 715 696 756 8891 2019‐20 555 424 566 602 665 656 764 758 795 781 813 735 728 709 8994 2020‐21 539 413 598 592 629 688 679 789 785 813 840 828 747 740 9141 2021‐22 539 414 582 625 618 650 712 702 815 802 875 855 841 759 9251 2022‐23 539 415 583 608 652 639 673 735 725 834 863 890 869 855 9341 2023‐24 539 416 584 609 635 674 661 694 760 742 897 878 904 883 9338 2024‐25 539 417 585 610 636 656 698 683 718 777 798 912 892 919 9301
FIGURE 29: Projected Enrollments, OPTION 3—Low Projection Births 6 School Year Years Ago* K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL 2015‐16 543 373 650 648 688 678 682 624 631 616 696 648 616 680 8,231 2016‐17 569 393 535 679 678 707 701 703 646 644 650 703 656 625 8,320 2017‐18 536 375 565 561 712 699 734 725 730 662 682 660 714 667 8,486 2018‐19 526 371 536 592 589 734 725 757 752 747 700 691 669 725 8,589 2019‐20 555 393 528 560 618 605 759 746 783 767 787 707 699 678 8,631 2020‐21 539 383 558 551 584 635 626 781 771 798 808 795 714 708 8,712 2021‐22 539 384 543 581 575 600 656 643 806 786 841 815 802 723 8,756 2022‐23 539 385 544 566 607 590 620 674 665 822 828 848 823 812 8,783 2023‐24 539 386 545 567 590 622 609 637 697 677 865 835 856 833 8,721 2024‐25 539 387 546 568 591 606 643 627 658 710 713 873 843 867 8,631 * The birth figure for each row does not pertain to births during that year, but rather the births that occurred six years prior to the projected year. The average birth-to-kindergarten ratio is then applied to get the projected kindergarten class.
FIGURE 30: 9-Year Average Progression Rates Used for OPTION 3—Low Projection
School Year Birth‐K K‐1 1‐2 2‐3 3‐4 4‐5 5‐6 6‐7 7‐8 8‐9 9‐10 10‐11 11‐12 9‐Yr Avg. 2006 ‐2014 0.685 1.429 1.042 1.043 1.025 1.032 1.028 1.032 1.018 1.053 1.008 1.009 1.011
28 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
District Enrollment Projections Projected Enrollment Summaries The general trend for the district under all scenarios is that enrollment will continue to grow most rapidly The summarized enrollment projections for the Cohort Progression Model over the next five to six years. Beyond that, the district and at each school level are presented on the medium and low options show growth winding down following pages. The three options are based on and enrollment going back down the last couple of Projected Enrollment Summaries differing adjustments and assumptions reviewed in years. the previous section. However, the variation in birth Figures 32, 33, and 34 isolate the projections Indicators of Projection Change estimates will make no difference at the middle according to the grade levels of buildings in the school and high school levels since children born district. Changes have also been evaluated over the over the next five years will not be old enough to five-year intervals of the primary and secondary influence those projections within the ten year periods. Some of the levels will experience very timeframe. different trends from one five-year period to the next. Option 2, the medium projection, is recommended as the most realistic or likely result at this time. It adjusts for the two factors that are believed to be likely regardless of other trends—new housing construction and more students filling existing rental apartments. Other factors are left to recent trends under Option 2.
FIGURE 31: Total District Enrollment Projections Op on 1—High Op on 2—Medium Op on 3—Low Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual Year Students Change Students Change Students Change 2014‐15 (Current) 8,053 8,053 8,053 2015‐16 8,303 250 8,298 245 8,231 178 2016‐17 8,480 177 8,468 170 8,320 89 2017‐18 8,736 256 8,713 245 8,486 166 2018‐19 8,923 187 8,891 178 8,589 103 2019‐20 9,037 114 8,994 103 8,631 42 2020‐21 9,212 175 9,141 147 8,712 81 2021‐22 9,365 153 9,251 110 8,756 44 2022‐23 9,509 144 9,341 90 8,783 27 2023‐24 9,570 61 9,338 ‐3 8,721 ‐62 2024‐25 9,609 39 9,301 ‐37 8,631 ‐90 Total Change 2014‐2024 1,556 1,248 578
29 ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 32: Grades K-5 Elementary School Enrollment Projections
Op on 1—High Op on 2—Medium Op on 3—Low Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual Year Students Change Students Change Students Change 2014‐15 (Current) 3,659 3,659 3,659 2015‐16 3,756 97 3,754 95 3,719 60 2016‐17 3,781 25 3,775 21 3,692 ‐27 2017‐18 3,783 2 3,772 ‐3 3,646 ‐46 2018‐19 3,732 ‐51 3,717 ‐55 3,547 ‐99 2019‐20 3,696 ‐36 3,677 ‐40 3,463 ‐84 5 Yr. Change from 2014‐15 to 2019‐20 37 18 ‐196 2020‐21 3,642 ‐54 3,600 ‐77 3,337 ‐126 2021‐22 3,682 40 3,602 2 3,339 2 2022‐23 3,699 17 3,571 ‐31 3,311 ‐28 2023‐24 3,768 69 3,580 9 3,320 9 2024‐25 3,860 92 3,602 22 3,340 20 5 Yr. Change from 2019‐20 to 2024‐25 164 ‐75 ‐123 10 Yr. Change Since 2014‐15 201 ‐57 ‐319
Elementary Schools least another year, but it will then come down again. The elementary school level has been the fastest The long term projections show an overall decrease growing section in the last five years, increasing by after ten years under the medium and low options. 519 students or over 16% during that time. The The projected declines come after some of the large increases were not driven by any increase in birth gains in recent grade classes move through the activity, but rather the ratio of students entering the system and enter middle school while smaller classes district in kindergarten or first grade did rise during replace them. that time. As discussed, more preschool children The high enrollment projection assumes that birth going into public school instead of private along with activity goes up and this will start to bring growth new students from existing multifamily homes and back to the smallest grades during the secondary more home sales helped to drive that ratio up. period after 2020. Each of the projection options suggest that growth will continue at the elementary school level for at
30 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
FIGURE 33: Grades 6-8 Middle School Enrollment Projections
Op on 1—High Op on 2—Medium Op on 3—Low Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual Year Students Change Students Change Students Change 2014‐15 (Current) 1,874 1,874 1,874 2015‐16 1,877 3 1,876 2 1,871 ‐3 2016‐17 2,006 129 2,004 128 1,993 122 2017‐18 2,143 137 2,138 134 2,117 124 2018‐19 2,293 150 2,285 147 2,256 139 2019‐20 2,344 51 2,334 49 2,297 41 5 Yr. Change from 2014‐15 to 2019‐20 470 460 423 2020‐21 2,398 54 2,386 52 2,351 54 2021‐22 2,334 ‐64 2,319 ‐67 2,236 ‐115 2022‐23 2,311 ‐23 2,294 ‐25 2,161 ‐75 2023‐24 2,215 ‐96 2,196 ‐98 2,011 ‐150 2024‐25 2,199 ‐16 2,178 ‐18 1,995 ‐16 5 Yr. Change from 2019‐20 to 2024‐25 ‐145 ‐156 ‐302
10 Yr. Change Since 2014‐15 325 304 121
Middle Schools The middle school level has also grown over the last five years, adding 217 students or 13% in that time, but not quite as much as the elementary schools. These grade levels are poised for even higher growth over the next 3-4 years as the larger elementary classes move into middle school. However, this growth is not expected to continue much beyond the primary period. All three projection scenarios are consistent with the notion that these grade levels will decline starting with the 2021 school year. Adjustments to the estimates of future births will not affect enrollment at the Middle School since those children will not have reached the sixth grade prior to 2025.
31 ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 34: Grades 9-12 High School Enrollment Projections
Op on 1—High Op on 2—Medium Op on 3—Low Total Annual Total Annual Total Year Students Change Students Change Students Annual Change 2014‐15 (Current) 2,520 2,520 2,520 2015‐16 2,670 150 2,668 148 2,640 120 2016‐17 2,693 23 2,689 21 2,634 ‐6 2017‐18 2,810 117 2,803 114 2,723 89 2018‐19 2,898 88 2,888 85 2,786 63 2019‐20 2,997 99 2,984 96 2,871 85 5 Yr. Change from 2014‐15 to 2019‐20 477 464 351 2020‐21 3,171 174 3,155 171 3,025 154 2021‐22 3,349 178 3,330 175 3,182 157 2022‐23 3,499 150 3,477 147 3,311 129 2023‐24 3,587 88 3,562 85 3,390 79 2024‐25 3,550 ‐37 3,521 ‐41 3,296 ‐94 5 Yr. Change from 2019‐20 to 2024‐25 553 537 425
10 Yr. Change Since 2014‐15 1,030 1,001 776
High Schools Enrollment at the high school level has also grown over the last five increase in more students going to private school, shows substantial years, but at a much slower rate than in the elementary and middle growth since there are already students in the system driving the school levels. Only 178 students were added in that time frame, which increases. was a gain of under 8%. Going back further shows that the high school level was actually declining for the five years prior. Over the course of the decade, the net change was only a gain of 52 students. This will not be the case going forward. All three options show a period of major growth in the years ahead driven by increased class sizes already in the public school system. Adjustments made for housing construction, more multifamily home students, and potential increases in sales will also boost growth. Even the low option, which is based on an
32 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
District Enrollment Projections Indicators of Projection Change estimates intended to reflect the overall impact from the developments. One project may ultimately result No further adjustments to the projections on the in more or less students, but the total for all Cohort Progression Model preceding pages are necessary at this time. The developments are expected to average out in the end. background data and analysis throughout this report Of course, if a project falls through or follows a forms a basis and understanding of how the numbers Projected Enrollment Summaries different timeline, those students attributed to that should be interpreted. However, markets and trends project would not make an impact as scheduled. Indicators of Projection Change can always change in unexpected manners. This The number of students added as an adjustment are section provides a further understanding of the assumptions inherent with the progression model and maintained throughout the ten year study period once
potential warning signs that would prompt a future they enter the system, but they are added outside of reconsideration of the projected enrollment figures. the progression rates so as not to compound the Any district should continually monitor the data in influence of new construction. this report to keep apprised of how trends are Birth Patterns developing. A district as actively growing as the LMSD should also plan on formal studies of Birth numbers are directly integrated into the cohort enrollment projections at least every three to four progression model and the number of births can years. significantly affect future projections, but any changes today will not be felt for at least six years in Housing Construction terms of the projections. The high projection model, All three projection options in this study incorporate Option 1, uses higher birth estimates than the the same adjustment for new multifamily unit medium and low models. Annual birth data should construction that is expected over the next six years. be tracked to anticipate if one option may become The adjustments were not altered for each option more likely during the secondary period. Live birth because they represent our best understanding of data is available from the Pennsylvania Department currently proposed projects and there is no cause to of Health, but the numbers should be correlated to alter them unless the prospects of a proposal change the school year rather than the calendar year. in the future. Of course, all proposals are subject to Alternative School Enrollment sudden changes in outlook due to the marketplace, local government concerns, financial issues, or other Private school choice has been demonstrated to have reasons. a significant impact on recent growth in the public schools. The high and medium projection models Figure 35 provides the data that was used to make the assume that the lower rate of private school housing adjustments in the cohort progression attendance is a reality that will continue into the models. The factor used to determine the number of foreseeable future. The trend in more public students public school students for most of the projects was stems from more people moving into the district for 0.04 students per unit. This factor was based on its public school system as opposed to people moving analysis of countywide figures for new multifamily back and forth between public and private school for construction, which includes all school-age children economic or other reasons once they are already here. both public and private, and actual data for existing However, the low projection model does show what multifamily developments within the LMSD. Two of could happen if the trend is short-lived and students the projects were calculated with a larger factor of return to private school in greater numbers. The 0.12 based on their character and similar American Community Survey provides delayed data developments within the LMSD. These factors are on private schools averaged out over multiple years,
33 ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 35: Factors Used for Housing Adjustment Model Calculations based on housing sales reaching 1,100 units per year by 2017. The recommendation of this study is that School Age Years Added to Pub‐ sales are more likely to remain stable at or slightly Children in lic School across above 1,000 units, in which case an adjustment is not Project ES School Area Total Units Public School Grades needed. The Planning Commission publishes annual 7 2017‐18 sales totals for each municipality in its “Median Prices for Housing” report released in May. 131‐151 Rock Hill Road Belmont Hills 332 6 2018‐19 6 2016‐17 Multifamily Student Ratio 12 2017‐18 Another adjustment made to all three projection 600 Righters Ferry Cynwyd 593 6 2018‐19 models was to acknowledge a continuing increase in the number of public school students coming out of 4 2017‐18 existing multifamily developments, especially 335 Righters Ferry Cynwyd 210 4 2018‐19 apartment rentals. While the ratios of students per 4 2018‐19 unit are not large, they are increasing. The 150 Monument Road Cynwyd 207 4 2019‐20 adjustment considers an increase of 0.08 to 0.1 in the 5 2019‐20 number of students per unit. This number can be 601 & 615 Righters Ferry Cynwyd 237 5 2020‐21 monitored each year by comparing student address records to the addresses of multifamily developments 15 2017‐18 as listed in the Multifamily Inventory found in the 331 Penn Road* Penn Valley 250 15 2018‐19 appendix of this study. The adjustment recognizes an 112 Sibley Penn Valley 46 2 2016‐17 additional 120 students from this trend, but if the 11‐15 E. Athens Avenue* Penn Valley 25 3 2015‐16 ratio proves to go higher an additional adjustment would be needed. 3 2016‐17 Palmer Seminary Penn Wynne 130 3 2017‐18 24 Cricket Avenue Penn Wynne 110 4 2017‐18
* These projects were calculated with a factor of 0.12 students per unit. All other projects were calculated with a factor of 0.04 students per unit.
so the district’s record of private school students Housing Sales Activity using district buses is going to provide more The number of market-rate housing sales transactions immediate information on any change in enrollment in the LMSD has increased over the last two years trends. and brought more gains in public school students as a result. Regionally, the housing market overall is Charter school and homeschooling impacts are much improving, but still going through fits and starts. If less substantial compared to private school, but these sales do increase further in the district, more counts should also be monitored in case there are any “churning” of households is expected with net gains unsuspected trends that would affect public school in public school students. The high projection model choices. accommodates the growth of 93 additional students
34 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
35 School Profiles Part
LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
School Profiles Introduction projections were adjusted by a single factor each year to conform to the overall district totals in the models Application of the Cohort Progression Model to from Part 3. The adjustments needed were minimal, Introduction individual school buildings is usually problematic changing the final totals by only a few students from and not recommended. There are concerns regarding what their unadjusted model would have indicated. Belmont Hills Elementary School the reduction in size of the student pool being measured, but the main problem is a lack of birth Elementary school projections have been limited to Cynwyd Elementary School data below the municipal level. This problem was five years due to the uncertainty with future births and the smaller student pool, although assessments of overcome in the LMSD with acquisition of birth data down to the census block group level. This allowed how the model would play out to ten years are Gladwyne Elementary School for a good determination of births within each included in the narrative. Middle school and high elementary school boundary going back to 2003. school projections are detailed out to ten years since Merion Elementary School they are drawing from a previous grade that can be Much of the county data used in the housing activity more strongly estimated as opposed to birth rates six analyses is spatially recorded using GIS, so that it years earlier. Penn Valley Elementary School may also be broken down at the school boundary level. Adjustments included in the districtwide Building projections under the Option 3 Low Model Penn Wynne Elementary School models have been distributed across the individual were made using modified 6 year average school levels and grades based on the actual data progression rates rather than the 9 year average used Bala Cynwyd Middle School related to each area. at the district level due to a lack of some data at the individual building level beyond 6 years. The It is fortunate to be able to develop models at the modified rates reflected the overall difference Welsh Valley Middle School building level, but confidence in the results at the between the 6 and 9 year averages seen at the district districtwide level should be higher than individual level. Harriton High School building results. Therefore, these building
Lower Merion High School
37 ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 36: Summary of Projected Enrollments Under Option 2 for Elementary Schools
Year Belmont Hills ES Cynwyd ES Gladwyne ES Merion ES Penn Valley ES Penn Wynne ES 2014‐15 (Actual) 468 543 738 568 660 682 2015‐16 472 542 735 600 700 704 2016‐17 474 550 740 605 694 713 2017‐18 487 543 714 602 706 720 2018‐19 485 529 715 599 685 704 2019‐20 475 526 722 603 651 700 Total Change 2014‐2019 7 ‐17 ‐16 35 ‐9 18
FIGURE 37: Summary of Projected Enrollments Under Option 2 for FIGURE 38: Summary of Projected Enrollments Under Option 2 for Middle Schools High Schools
Year Bala Cynwyd MS Welsh Valley MS Year Harriton HS Lower Merion HS 2014‐15 (Actual) 901 973 2014‐15 (Actual) 1,170 1,350 2015‐16 884 992 2015‐16 1,223 1,445 2016‐17 916 1,087 2016‐17 1,239 1,450 2017‐18 996 1,141 2017‐18 1,309 1,494 2018‐19 1,082 1,204 2018‐19 1,368 1,520 2019‐20 1,108 1,226 2019‐20 1,439 1,545 2020‐21 1,149 1,237 2020‐21 1,529 1,627 2021‐22 1,101 1,218 2021‐22 1,596 1,734 2022‐23 1,103 1,191 2022‐23 1,675 1,802 2023‐24 1,042 1,155 2023‐24 1,670 1,892 2024‐25 1,044 1,134 2024‐25 1,667 1,854
Total Change 2014‐ 143 161 Total Change 2014‐ 497 504
38 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
Belmont Hills Elementary School births that occurred in 2010-11will provide additional multifamily unis could come into the Rock Hill Road students beginning in 2016-17, but the departure of corridor in the future. Growth in the Belmont Hills area has been moderate, the large 2014-15 fourth grade class in 2016-17 will Major enrollment changes are not expected for this gaining 26 students since 2009. The medium balance out many of those additions. projection indicates that no major shifts are expected area over the next ten years. This area will continue to experience low levels of in the next five years. Approximately 13 new new construction outside of the Rock Hill Road students will be added from the 131-151 Rock Hill project. If that project is successful, more Road project in a few years (at all grade levels, including middle and high school). The bump in
FIGURE 39: Belmont Hills Elementary School Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014 FIGURE 42: Number of Live Births in Belmont Hills ES
Year K 1 2 3 4 5 Total Change School Year Births 2009‐10 63 72 74 78 77 78 442 0 2003‐04 78 * 2012 and 2013 school year births are esti- 2010‐11 61 82 76 81 78 83 461 19 mates based on a 3 year average and adjusted 2004‐05 70 to match county totals. 2011‐12 40 89 85 79 78 80 451 ‐10 2005‐06 67 Source: MCPC and PA Dept. of Health 2012‐13 52 64 87 83 79 87 452 1 2006‐07 66 2013‐14 63 81 74 92 79 80 469 17 2007‐08 71 2014‐15 54 89 82 71 94 78 468 ‐1 2008‐09 83 Source: Lower Merion School District 2009‐10 64 FIGURE 40: Grade Progression Rates for Belmont Hills ES 2010‐11 91 2011‐12 58 School Year Birth‐K K‐1 1‐2 2‐3 3‐4 4‐5 2012‐13* 68 6‐Yr Avg. 2009‐2014 0.767 1.462 1.042 1.019 0.987 1.043 2013‐14* 72
FIGURE 41: Belmont Hills ES Enrollment Projections FIGURE 43: Housing Activity in Belmont Hills ES Op on 1—High Op on 2—Medium Op on 3—Low % of Total Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual New Units Exis ng Housing Year Students Change Students Change Students Change Year Built Units Sold Units 2014‐15 (Current) 468 468 468 2009 1 90 2.4% 2015‐16 473 5 472 4 468 0 2010 2 107 2.8% 2016‐17 475 2 474 2 462 ‐6 2011 5 102 2.7% 2017‐18 489 14 487 13 470 8 2012 2 132 3.4% 2018‐19 488 ‐1 485 ‐2 462 ‐8 2013 3 139 3.6% 2019‐20 478 ‐10 475 ‐10 446 ‐16 Total 13 570 14.9% Total Change 2014‐2019 10 7 ‐22 Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
39 ENROLLMENT STUDY
Cynwyd Elementary School This projected decline is in spite of the amount of The long term projection out to ten years suggests new multifamily units expected in the next five years. that enrollment will stay down closer to 500 students Cynwyd Elementary School has had a couple growth Over 1,200 new units are possible under four unless birth activity increases. spurts in 2010-11 and 2014-15 resulting in a net gain proposed developments, but these projects are mid- of 64 students since 2009. However, enrollment is rise luxury apartments located along the waterfront expected to decline in the next five years. Birth and near City Avenue. They will not have strong activity is down from ten years ago, which will bring family appeal, but the model adjusts for 54 potential smaller kindergarten and first grade classes than what students (at all grade levels, including middle and the area has seen in recent years. high school) through 2020.
FIGURE 44: Cynwyd Elementary School Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014 FIGURE 47: Number of Live Births in Cynwyd ES
Year K 1 2 3 4 5 Total Change School Year Births 2009‐10 55 80 78 89 94 83 479 7 2003‐04 100 * 2012 and 2013 school year births are esti- 2010‐11 57 82 83 84 98 98 502 23 mates based on a 3 year average and adjusted 2004‐05 88 to match county totals. 2011‐12 70 86 90 84 86 96 512 10 2005‐06 116 Source: MCPC and PA Dept. of Health 2012‐13 66 98 86 93 85 88 516 4 2006‐07 87 2013‐14 56 92 96 85 93 86 508 ‐8 2007‐08 85 2014‐15 71 86 102 104 85 95 543 35 2008‐09 82 Source: Lower Merion School District 2009‐10 72 FIGURE 45: Grade Progression Rates for Cynwyd ES 2010‐11 83 2011‐12 84 School Year Birth‐K K‐1 1‐2 2‐3 3‐4 4‐5 2012‐13* 77 6‐Yr Avg. 2009‐2014 0.681 1.464 1.044 1.038 1.034 1.009 2013‐14* 81
FIGURE 46: Cynwyd ES Enrollment Projections FIGURE 48: Housing Activity in Cynwyd ES Op on 1—High Op on 2—Medium Op on 3—Low % of Total Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual New Units Exis ng Housing Year Students Change Students Change Students Change Year Built Units Sold Units 2014‐15 (Current) 543 543 543 2009 9 77 2.5% 2015‐16 542 ‐1 542 ‐1 537 ‐6 2010 0 77 2.5% 2016‐17 551 9 550 8 539 2 2011 2 99 3.2% 2017‐18 545 ‐6 543 ‐7 526 ‐13 2012 2 113 3.6% 2018‐19 531 ‐14 529 ‐14 506 ‐20 2013 1 152 4.9% 2019‐20 529 ‐2 526 ‐3 497 ‐9 Total 14 518 16.6% Total Change 2014‐2019 ‐14 ‐17 ‐46 Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
40 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
Gladwyne Elementary School construction of single-family detached and attached observation of current class sizes. The 3rd-5th units than other areas, which also can bring new grades are very high while the younger grades are The Gladwyne Elementary School has grown at a students. The shift in fewer students going to private lower in comparison. As the older classes proceed to fairly drastic rate since 2009, gaining 179 students in school could be having a bigger effect in this area as middle school, they will be replaced by smaller that time. The progression rates are very high for well. classes bringing enrollment back down. each grade level over the last six years indicating All of the projection models call for an immediate The long term projections under Option 2 indicate more students migrating into the school beyond end to this growth. Support for this is found in the that enrollment should stay down below 700 students kindergarten and first grade. Home sales have gone lower birth rates the last few years and an up considerably and this area has had more through 2024.
FIGURE 49: Gladwyne Elementary School Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014 FIGURE 52: Number of Live Births in Gladwyne ES
Year K 1 2 3 4 5 Total Change School Year Births 2009‐10 80 95 89 107 83 105 559 23 2003‐04 118 * 2012 and 2013 school year births are esti- 2010‐11 86 109 105 97 109 94 600 41 mates based on a 3 year average and adjusted 2004‐05 99 to match county totals. 2011‐12 90 107 119 107 101 109 633 33 2005‐06 116 Source: MCPC and PA Dept. of Health 2012‐13 66 131 120 129 120 109 675 42 2006‐07 123 2013‐14 71 110 132 128 140 120 701 26 2007‐08 90 2014‐15 90 103 112 145 137 151 738 37 2008‐09 112 Source: Lower Merion School District 2009‐10 104 FIGURE 50: Grade Progression Rates for Gladwyne ES 2010‐11 110 2011‐12 92 School Year Birth‐K K‐1 1‐2 2‐3 3‐4 4‐5 2012‐13* 98 6‐Yr Avg. 2009‐2014 0.742 1.437 1.081 1.071 1.067 1.052 2013‐14* 103
FIGURE 51: Gladwyne ES Enrollment Projections FIGURE 53: Housing Activity in Gladwyne ES Op on 1—High Op on 2—Medium Op on 3—Low % of Total Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual New Units Exis ng Housing Year Students Change Students Change Students Change Year Built Units Sold Units 2014‐15 (Current) 738 738 738 2009 17 150 2.2% 2015‐16 736 ‐2 735 ‐3 729 ‐9 2010 19 196 2.9% 2016‐17 741 5 740 5 724 ‐5 2011 19 182 2.7% 2017‐18 715 ‐26 714 ‐26 690 ‐34 2012 35 241 3.6% 2018‐19 717 2 715 1 682 ‐8 2013 25 259 3.8% 2019‐20 725 8 722 7 680 ‐2 Total 115 1028 15.3% Total Change 2014‐2019 ‐13 ‐16 ‐58 Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
41 ENROLLMENT STUDY
Merion Elementary School Birth activity has been fairly consistent since 2005 and this area has seen lower sales activity than some The Merion Elementary School has grown by 78 other school areas. Very little home construction is students since 2009 with some inconsistent jumps in occurring and no major proposals are being enrollment. The projections show that the school is considered. These trends all support the stability of in for another substantial increase in 2015-16, but enrollment at Merion shown in the medium will remain stable following next year. The growth projection. Over the long term, enrollment should in 2015 is coming from the departure of an hover just under 600 students under Option 2. undersized 5th grade class in 2014-15.
FIGURE 54: Merion Elementary School Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014 FIGURE 57: Number of Live Births in Merion ES
Year K 1 2 3 4 5 Total Change School Year Births 2009‐10 53 86 87 94 88 82 490 14 2003‐04 91 * 2012 and 2013 school year births are esti- 2010‐11 68 69 88 90 90 90 495 5 mates based on a 3 year average and adjusted 2004‐05 117 to match county totals. 2011‐12 68 97 75 95 95 100 530 35 2005‐06 102 Source: MCPC and PA Dept. of Health 2012‐13 82 97 107 81 89 93 549 19 2006‐07 101 2013‐14 73 100 102 105 80 89 549 0 2007‐08 106 2014‐15 75 94 103 114 102 80 568 19 2008‐09 97 Source: Lower Merion School District 2009‐10 100 FIGURE 55: Grade Progression Rates for Merion ES 2010‐11 100 2011‐12 103 School Year Birth‐K K‐1 1‐2 2‐3 3‐4 4‐5 2012‐13* 97 6‐Yr Avg. 2009‐2014 0.684 1.409 1.055 1.056 0.991 1.027 2013‐14* 102
FIGURE 56: Merion ES Enrollment Projections FIGURE 58: Housing Activity in Merion ES Op on 1—High Op on 2—Medium Op on 3—Low % of Total Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual New Units Exis ng Housing Year Students Change Students Change Students Change Year Built Units Sold Units 2014‐15 (Current) 568 568 568 2009 2 89 2.7% 2015‐16 600 32 600 32 594 26 2010 0 76 2.3% 2016‐17 606 6 605 5 592 ‐2 2011 1 89 2.7% 2017‐18 603 ‐3 602 ‐3 581 ‐11 2012 1 94 2.9% 2018‐19 601 ‐2 599 ‐3 571 ‐10 2013 0 96 2.9% 2019‐20 606 5 603 4 567 ‐4 Total 4 444 13.5% Total Change 2014‐2019 38 35 ‐1 Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
42 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
Penn Valley Elementary School expected to slow down growth and the departure of expected to bring about 35 students into the Penn the currently large class sizes will ultimately bring Valley area by 2018. Penn Valley Elementary School has grown each year enrollment back to under the current total by 2019 Home sales have not risen as dramatically as in other since 2009, adding 149 students in that time. The according to the Option 2 projection. areas and remain a relatively low percentage of total area had a surge in birth activity from 2004-2007 This area does have a few multifamily projects being housing units. The long term projection for Option 2 which has fueled growth over the last five years. The proposed and they are viewed as having a bit more of holds enrollment within the 650-670 range through school also has relatively high progression rates for an effect on school-age children than some of the its birth-kindergarten and kindergarten-1st grade 2024. other developments studied. The projects are transitions. A gradual lowering of birth activity is
FIGURE 59: Penn Valley Elementary School Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014 FIGURE 62: Number of Live Births in Penn Valley ES
Year K 1 2 3 4 5 Total Change School Year Births 2009‐10 63 96 89 84 95 84 511 41 2003‐04 76 * 2012 and 2013 school year births are esti- 2010‐11 68 89 97 93 89 88 524 13 mates based on a 3 year average and adjusted 2004‐05 94 to match county totals. 2011‐12 69 104 94 108 109 100 584 60 2005‐06 97 Source: MCPC and PA Dept. of Health 2012‐13 85 107 108 89 111 114 614 30 2006‐07 101 2013‐14 91 125 97 113 95 115 636 22 2007‐08 106 2014‐15 63 133 131 112 125 96 660 24 2008‐09 80 Source: Lower Merion School District 2009‐10 97 FIGURE 60: Grade Progression Rates for Penn Valley ES 2010‐11 73 2011‐12 95 School Year Birth‐K K‐1 1‐2 2‐3 3‐4 4‐5 2012‐13* 84 6‐Yr Avg. 2009‐2014 0.792 1.509 1.020 1.059 1.081 1.049 2013‐14* 89
FIGURE 61: Penn Valley ES Enrollment Projections FIGURE 63: Housing Activity in Penn Valley ES Op on 1—High Op on 2—Medium Op on 3—Low % of Total Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual New Units Exis ng Housing Year Students Change Students Change Students Change Year Built Units Sold Units 2014‐15 (Current) 660 660 660 2009 12 115 2.3% 2015‐16 700 40 700 40 693 33 2010 9 120 2.4% 2016‐17 695 ‐5 694 ‐6 679 ‐14 2011 3 121 2.4% 2017‐18 708 13 706 12 683 4 2012 4 130 2.6% 2018‐19 688 ‐20 685 ‐21 655 ‐28 2013 1 167 3.3% 2019‐20 654 ‐34 651 ‐34 612 ‐43 Total 29 653 13.0% Total Change 2014‐2019 ‐6 ‐9 ‐48 Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
43 ENROLLMENT STUDY
Penn Wynne Elementary School recent years. Its other progression ratios are not as The current growth should slow down and begin to high as some other areas though. This could be due reverse somewhat with overall enrollment only going The Penn Wynne Elementary School has experienced to more families coming into the area with children at up 18 by 2019-20, although it peaks at 720 in 2017- rapid growth just within the last couple of years, a younger age than kindergarten or having children 18 under Option 2. In the long term, enrollment is gaining 124 students since 2010. Birth activity after moving. Housing sales are very strong in Penn expected to stabilize under 700 students through affecting the recent classes has not declined in Penn Wynne with the highest percentage of housing units 2024. Wynne like it has in some areas and it should remain selling. consistent. Penn Wynne does have the highest birth- kindergarten ratio with larger kindergarten classes in
FIGURE 64: Penn Wynne Elementary School Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014 FIGURE 67: Number of Live Births in Penn Wynne ES
Year K 1 2 3 4 5 Total Change School Year Births 2009‐10 77 89 104 99 96 93 558 ‐7 2003‐04 105 * 2012 and 2013 school year births are esti- 2010‐11 71 97 90 99 107 94 558 0 mates based on a 3 year average and adjusted 2004‐05 114 to match county totals. 2011‐12 76 102 93 91 99 115 576 18 2005‐06 106 Source: MCPC and PA Dept. of Health 2012‐13 87 105 106 97 96 102 593 17 2006‐07 88 2013‐14 95 122 115 117 98 98 645 52 2007‐08 115 2014‐15 101 116 128 114 117 106 682 37 2008‐09 106 Source: Lower Merion School District 2009‐10 106 FIGURE 65: Grade Progression Rates for Penn Wynne ES 2010‐11 112 2011‐12 104 School Year Birth‐K K‐1 1‐2 2‐3 3‐4 4‐5 2012‐13* 102 6‐Yr Avg. 2009‐2014 0.807 1.317 1.032 1.014 1.021 1.035 2013‐14* 108
FIGURE 66: Penn Wynne ES Enrollment Projections FIGURE 68: Housing Activity in Penn Wynne ES Op on 1—High Op on 2—Medium Op on 3—Low % of Total Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual New Units Exis ng Housing Year Students Change Students Change Students Change Year Built Units Sold Units 2014‐15 (Current) 682 682 682 2009 0 137 3.4% 2015‐16 705 23 704 22 697 15 2010 0 133 3.3% 2016‐17 714 9 713 9 697 0 2011 0 134 3.3% 2017‐18 722 8 720 7 696 ‐1 2012 1 154 3.8% 2018‐19 706 ‐16 704 ‐16 671 ‐25 2013 13 163 4.1% 2019‐20 704 ‐2 700 ‐4 659 ‐12 Total 14 721 17.9% Total Change 2014‐2019 22 18 ‐23 Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
44 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
Bala Cynwyd Middle School still add more students each year from new students 200 students by 2019. Enrollment will decline coming into the district. during the second half of the decade but all three The Bala Cynwyd Middle School had been growing Enrollment will dip down next year based on the options still show an increase. Note that under either each year up until 2014, with a total of 86 students departure of an above average sized 8th grade class. option, growth will not be avoided in the next six added since 2009 gaining 124 students since 2010. However, more growth will follow over the next five years due to public school increases that have already The major factor influencing middle school growth is years as the recent increases at the elementary occurred. the prior year’s 5th grade class coming out of the schools, especially Penn Wynne ES, move into elementary schools in BCMS’s area. The middle school grades. Option 2 shows a gain of over progression rates show that all middle school grades
FIGURE 69: Bala Cynwyd MS Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014 FIGURE 72: Bala Cynwyd MS Enrollment Projections
Year 6 7 8 Total Change Op on 1—High Op on 2—Medium Op on 3—Low 2009‐10 283 265 267 815 16 Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual Year Students Change Students Change Students Change 2010‐11 268 295 268 831 16 2014‐15 (Current) 901 901 901 2011‐12 284 274 307 865 34 2015‐16 885 ‐16 884 ‐17 882 ‐19 2012‐13 318 292 283 893 28 2016‐17 918 33 916 32 911 29 2013‐14 290 332 300 922 29 2017‐18 999 81 996 80 987 76 2014‐15 280 299 322 901 ‐21 2018‐19 1,085 86 1,082 86 1,068 81 Source: Lower Merion School District 2019‐20 1,113 28 1,108 26 1,090 22 FIGURE 70: Grade Progression Rates for Bala Cynwyd MS 2020‐21 1,156 43 1,149 41 1,132 42 School Year 5‐6 6‐7 7‐8 2021‐22 1,108 ‐48 1,101 ‐48 1,063 ‐69 6‐Yr Avg. 2022‐23 1,112 4 1,103 2 1,041 ‐22 2009‐2014 1.025 1.035 1.022 2023‐24 1,051 ‐61 1,042 ‐61 954 ‐87 2024‐25 1,054 3 1,044 2 956 2 FIGURE 71: Housing Activity in Bala Cynwyd MS Total Change % of Total 2014‐2024 153 143 55 New Units Exis ng Housing Year Built Units Sold Units 2009 11 303 2.9% 2010 0 286 2.7% 2011 3 322 3.1% 2012 4 361 3.5% 2013 13 411 3.9% Total 31 1,683 16.1% Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
45 Welsh Valley Middle School school grades still add more students each year from Note that under either option, growth will not be new students coming into the district. avoided in the next six years due to public school The Welsh Valley Middle School has grown each Enrollment will continue to grow over the next five increases that have already occurred. year since 2009, with a total of 174 students added in years as the recent increases at the elementary that time. The major factor influencing middle schools move into middle school grades. Option 2 school growth is the prior year’s 5th grade class shows a gain of over 250 students by 2019. coming out of the elementary schools in WVMS’s Enrollment will decline during the second half of the area. The progression rates show that all middle decade but all three options still show an increase.
FIGURE 73: Welsh Valley MS Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014 FIGURE 76: Welsh Valley MS Enrollment Projections
Year 6 7 8 Total Change Op on 1—High Op on 2—Medium Op on 3—Low 2009‐10 279 249 271 799 15 Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual Year Students Change Students Change Students Change 2010‐11 281 289 259 829 30 2014‐15 (Current) 973 973 973 2011‐12 280 290 293 863 34 2015‐16 993 20 992 19 989 16 2012‐13 312 301 302 915 52 2016‐17 1,089 96 1,087 95 1,081 92 2013‐14 313 330 301 944 29 2017‐18 1,144 55 1,141 54 1,130 49 2014‐15 330 305 338 973 29 2018‐19 1,208 64 1,204 63 1,188 58 Source: Lower Merion School District 2019‐20 1,231 23 1,226 22 1,206 18 FIGURE 74: Grade Progression Rates for Welsh Valley MS 2020‐21 1,243 12 1,237 11 1,218 12 School Year 5‐6 6‐7 7‐8 2021‐22 1,225 ‐18 1,218 ‐19 1,173 ‐45 6‐Yr Avg. 2022‐23 1,199 ‐26 1,191 ‐27 1,120 ‐53 2009‐2014 1.039 1.033 1.022 2023‐24 1,164 ‐35 1,155 ‐36 1,057 ‐63 2024‐25 1,145 ‐19 1,134 ‐21 1,039 18 FIGURE 75: Housing Activity in Welsh Valley MS Total Change % of Total 2014‐2024 172 161 66 New Units Exis ng Housing Year Built Units Sold Units 2009 30 355 2.3% 2010 30 423 2.7% 2011 27 405 2.6% 2012 41 503 3.2% 2013 29 565 3.6% Total 157 2,251 14.4% Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
Harriton High School districts will see their high school grades start to decline, but the LMSD continues to bring in new The Harriton High School grew rapidly for four years students at this level for a net gain. from 2009 to 2012 and then remained steady. The Enrollment will grow at a high rate over the next major factor influencing high school growth is the eight years as a result of the growth that has already prior year’s 8th grade class coming out of the Welsh occurred at smaller grade levels. Student choice Valley MS area. The progression rates show that all zones and the International Baccalaureate program high school grades still add more students each year have been accounted for in these projections. from new students coming into the district. Many
FIGURE 77: Harriton HS Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014 FIGURE 80: Harriton HS Enrollment Projections
Year 9 10 11 12 Total Change Op on 1—High Op on 2—Medium Op on 3—Low 2009‐10 292 200 199 205 896 98 Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual Year Students Change Students Change Students Change 2010‐11 277 307 214 213 1,011 115 2014‐15 (Current) 1,170 1,170 1,170 2011‐12 280 283 312 211 1,086 75 2015‐16 1,224 54 1,223 53 1,211 41 2012‐13 299 282 296 311 1,188 102 2016‐17 1,241 17 1,239 16 1,214 3 2013‐14 294 308 289 294 1,185 ‐2 2017‐18 1,313 72 1,309 70 1,271 57 2014‐15 295 283 300 292 1,170 ‐15 2018‐19 1,373 60 1,368 59 1,319 48 Source: Lower Merion School District 2019‐20 1,445 72 1,439 71 1,383 64 FIGURE 78: Grade Progression Rates for Harriton HS 2020‐21 1,536 91 1,529 90 1,464 81 School Year 8‐9 9‐10 10‐11 11‐12 2021‐22 1,604 68 1,596 67 1,523 59 6‐Yr Avg. 2022‐23 1,685 81 1,675 79 1,594 71 2009‐2014 1.025 1.018 1.026 1.011 2023‐24 1,682 ‐3 1,670 ‐5 1,589 ‐5 2024‐25 1,680 ‐2 1,667 ‐3 1,558 ‐31 FIGURE 79: Housing Activity in Harriton HS Total Change % of Total 2014‐2024 510 497 388 New Units Exis ng Housing Year Built Units Sold Units 2009 30 355 2.3% A Note About Choice Zones: The LMSD offers 8th grade students from Welsh Valley MS living within a specified boundary 2010 30 423 2.7% surrounding Lower Merion High School the opportunity to attend Lower Merion HS instead of 2011 27 405 2.6% Harriton. The progression rates used for Harriton HS account for this effect. The rate observed 2012 41 503 3.2% for the grade 8-9 transition (1.025) would be considerably higher if not for some Welsh Valley students choosing to attend Lower Merion HS. 2013 29 565 3.6% The choice zone was expanded in 2014, so an adjustment was made to the projections under the Total 157 2,251 14.4% assumption that 40% of the students in the expanded choice zone would choose to attend Lower Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission Merion High School.
47
Lower Merion High School students coming into the district. Many districts will Baccalaureate program have been accounted for in see their high school grades start to decline, but the these projections. The Lower Merion High School was declining going LMSD continues to bring in new students at this back as far as the 2006-07 school year, but started to level for a net gain. increase beginning in 2012. The major factor Enrollment at Lower Merion HS will grow at a high influencing high school growth is the prior year’s 8th rate over the next nine years as a result of the growth grade class coming out of the Bala Cynwyd MS area. that has already occurred at smaller grade levels. The progression rates show that all high school Student choice zones and the International grades still add more students each year from new
FIGURE 81: Lower Merion HS Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014 FIGURE 84: Lower Merion HS Enrollment Projections
Year 9 10 11 12 Total Change Op on 1—High Op on 2—Medium Op on 3—Low 2009‐10 310 328 364 401 1,403 ‐67 Total Annual Total Annual Total Annual Year Students Change Students Change Students Change 2010‐11 307 313 333 378 1,331 ‐72 2014‐15 (Current) 1,350 1,350 1,350 2011‐12 293 306 323 338 1,260 ‐71 2015‐16 1,446 96 1,445 95 1,430 80 2012‐13 357 297 305 328 1,287 27 2016‐17 1,452 6 1,450 5 1,421 ‐9 2013‐14 320 369 298 313 1,300 13 2017‐18 1,497 45 1,494 44 1,452 31 2014‐15 347 327 371 305 1,350 50 2018‐19 1,525 28 1,520 26 1,467 15 Source: Lower Merion School District 2019‐20 1,552 27 1,545 25 1,489 22 FIGURE 82: Grade Progression Rates for Lower Merion HS 2020‐21 1,636 84 1,627 82 1,561 72 School Year 8‐9 9‐10 10‐11 11‐12 2021‐22 1,745 109 1,734 107 1,659 98 6‐Yr Avg. 2022‐23 1,814 69 1,802 68 1,718 59 2009‐2014 1.128 1.016 1.008 1.021 2023‐24 1,905 91 1,892 90 1,801 83 2024‐25 1,869 ‐36 1,854 ‐38 1,738 ‐63 FIGURE 83: Housing Activity in Lower Merion HS Total Change % of Total 2014‐2024 519 504 388 New Units Exis ng Housing Year Built Units Sold Units A Note About Choice Zones: 2009 11 303 2.9% The LMSD offers 8th grade students from Welsh Valley MS living within a specified boundary 2010 0 286 2.7% surrounding Lower Merion High School the opportunity to attend Lower Merion HS instead of 2011 3 322 3.1% Harriton. The progression rates used for Lower Merion HS account for this effect. The rate observed for the grade 8-9 transition (1.128) would be considerably lower if not for some Welsh 2012 4 361 3.5% Valley students choosing to attend Lower Merion HS 2013 13 411 3.9% The choice zone was expanded in 2014, so an adjustment was made to the projections under the Total 31 1,683 16.1% assumption that 40% of the students in the expanded choice zone would choose to attend Lower Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission Merion High School.
48 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
49 Appendix Part
LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
Appendix.1 Multifamily Inventory All multifamily developments with 20+ units and the number of enrolled LMSD students in 2006, 2010, and 2014. 2014-15 2010-11 2006-07 Date Students/ Student Student Student Name Unit Type Street Address Units Built unit Count Count Count Oak Hill/Tower at Oak Hill Multifamily Condo 1637 Oakwood Drive 753 1969 0.05 41 21 19 Green Hill Multifamily Condo 1001 City Avenue 543 1960 0.04 24 13 9 191 Condominium Multifamily Condo 191 Presidential Blvd 228 1963 0.04 9 3 3 Wynnewood Park Apartments Multifamily Rental 150 E Wynnewood Rd 224 1945 0.13 30 44 30 Thomas Wynne Apartments Multifamily Rental 200 N Wynnewood Ave 215 1950 0.17 37 17 12 Sutton Terrace Multifamily Condo 50 Belmont Ave 172 1974 0.00 0 0 2 Brynwood Apartments Multifamily Rental 250 E Wynnewood Rd 150 1950 0.21 32 29 24 Corinthian Multifamily Condo 190 Presidential Blvd 108 2006 0.03 3 6 1 Fairmont Multifamily Condo 41 Conshohocken State Rd 100 1976 0.00 0 0 0 Twelve Nineteen Condominium Multifamily Condo 1219 W Wynnewood Rd 96 1976 0.02 2 2 1 Suburban Court Apartments Multifamily Rental 113 Cricket Ave 95 1926 0.05 5 0 0 Wynnewood House Multifamily Rental 300 E Lancaster Ave 88 1956 0.03 3 3 1 Whitehall Apartments Multifamily Rental 410 Lancaster Ave 88 1926 0.02 2 1 0 Oakwynne House Apartments Multifamily Rental 1209 W Wynnewood Rd 84 1961 0.06 5 1 0 Wynnewood Plaza Condominium Multifamily Condo 346 E Lancaster Ave 83 1945 0.06 5 3 1 Latch's Lane Condominiums Multifamily Condo 40 Old Lancaster Rd 81 1948 0.09 7 6 5 Conwyn Arms Multifamily Rental 830 W Montgomery Ave 80 1954 0.15 12 11 8 Montgomery Court Multifamily Rental 214 Price Ave 73 1940 0.25 18 13 10 Trianon Apartments Multifamily Rental 20 Conshohocken State Rd 73 1976 0.04 3 0 0 Tedwyn Apartments Multifamily Rental 840 W Montgomery Ave 72 1959 0.00 0 0 0 Benson House Multifamily Condo 930 W Montgomery Ave 67 1977 0.00 0 0 0 429 Apartments Multifamily Rental 429 W Montgomery Ave 66 1940 0.05 3 8 9 The Mermont Multifamily Rental 906 W Montgomery Ave 66 1940 0.00 0 0 0 Wyndon Apartments Multifamily Rental 625 E Lancaster Ave 65 1948 0.18 12 5 3 Montgomery Plaza Multifamily Rental 120 E Montgomery Ave 64 1964 0.13 8 4 10 101 Apartments Multifamily Rental 101 Mill Creek Rd 62 1963 0.18 11 8 7 Mayflower Square Multifamily Condo 922 W Montgomery Ave 62 1952 0.00 0 0 0 Saint George's Apartments Multifamily Rental 119 Mill Creek Rd 60 1930 0.08 5 1 3 Narberth Hall Apartments Multifamily Rental 300 N Essex Ave 60 1929 0.12 7 3 1 Hampshires at Haverford Condos Multifamily Condo 104 Woodside Rd 59 1939 0.00 0 1 0 Llanfair House Apartments Multifamily Rental 17 Llanfair Rd 58 1966 0.05 3 1 0 Mermont Plaza Multifamily Rental 901 Montgomery Ave 55 0.13 7 3 3 Grays Lane House Multifamily Condo 100 Grays Lane & Montgomery Avenue 52 1975 0.02 1 0 0 The Greenhouse Multifamily Condo 19 Rock Hill Rd 50 1976 0.02 1 1 0 Dunfern Apartments Multifamily Rental 10 Montgomery Ave 50 1924 0.02 1 2 1 Thornbrook Manor Apartments Multifamily Rental 819 W Montgomery Ave 50 1939 0.00 0 0 0 Merion Court Apartments Multifamily Rental 118 Montgomery Ave 49 1954 0.35 17 9 9 Hunter House Multifamily Condo 449 W Montgomery Ave 49 1967 0.00 0 3 1 Bryn Mawr Gables Multifamily Rental 806 W Montgomery Ave 48 1930 0.00 0 0 0 One Montgomery Avenue Multifamily Rental 1 Montgomery Ave 46 1964 0.20 9 10 5 Lakeside Apartments Multifamily Rental 170 Lakeside Rd 45 1975 0.40 18 7 7 51 ENROLLMENT STUDY
2014-15 2010-11 2006-07 Date Students/ Student Student Student Name Unit Type Street Address Units Built unit Count Count Count Argyle Court Apartments Multifamily Rental 126 Argyle Rd 44 1920 0.05 2 2 0 Churchill Court Multifamily Condo 237 W Montgomery Ave 42 1920 0.00 0 0 1 Cynwyd Court Multifamily Condo 42 Conshohocken State Rd 38 1948 0.13 5 0 1 Edgehill Court Apartments Multifamily Rental 25 Old Lancaster Rd 37 1960 0.11 4 2 3 101 Cheswold Lane Condominiums Multifamily Condo 101 Cheswold Ln 33 1982 0.03 1 0 2 Pennmount Apartments Multifamily Rental 34 W Montgomery Ave 32 1965 0.28 9 2 4 Wynmont Multifamily Condo 1334 Montgomery Ave 32 1960 0.03 1 2 2 Merion Manor Multifamily Condo 212 Idris Dr 31 1925 0.00 0 0 0 Yorklynne Manor Multifamily Condo 415 City Ave 31 1926 0.16 5 7 3 Hardie Apartments Multifamily Rental 1 Oakland Ter 28 1925 0.04 1 0 1 Summit Court Apartments Multifamily Rental 101 Summit Ln 28 1952 0.36 10 7 5 Pennswood Condos Multifamily Condo 601 W Montgomery Ave 27 1960 0.00 0 0 0 Waterford Condos Multifamily Condo 383 Lakeside Rd 27 1989 0.00 0 0 1 Haverford Apartments Multifamily Rental 411 Lancaster Ave 26 1920 0.00 0 0 0 Cricket Club Multifamily Condo 103 W Montgomery Ave 25 1972 0.04 1 0 0 Bryn Mawr Court Multifamily Rental 805 W Montgomery Ave 25 1922 0.00 0 0 0 37 East Montgomery Condominiums Multifamily Condo 37 E Montgomery Ave 24 1965 0.08 2 1 1 (NONE) Multifamily Rental 859 Old Lancaster Rd 24 1960 0.17 4 0 0 Bernola Apartments Multifamily Rental 87 Rittenhouse Pl 24 1900 0.00 0 0 0 Narberth Station Apartments Multifamily Rental 280 Haverford Ave 24 1929 0.08 2 6 3 Sevilla Court Multifamily Rental 32 Conshohocken State Rd 24 1940 0.29 7 6 5 Beechwood Apartments Multifamily Rental 509 Conway Ave 24 1956 0.00 0 1 0 Breton Hall Apartments Multifamily Rental 117 N Essex Ave 24 1961 0.00 0 0 1 Haverford Gables Apartments Multifamily Rental 312 W Montgomery Ave 23 1920 0.13 3 3 1 Essex Manor Apartments Multifamily Rental 205 N Essex Ave 23 1962 0.00 0 0 0 Cambridge Square Multifamily Condo 120 Sibley Ave 21 2007 0.05 1 0 0
Coach House Multifamily Condo 1011 W Mongtomery Ave and 100-108 N. 21 1957 0.05 1 0 1 Essex House Multifamily Condo 226 Essex Ave 21 1973 0.00 0 0 0 Ardglen Apartments Multifamily Rental 18 W Montgomery Ave 21 1962 0.00 0 0 0 Llanberris Apartments Multifamily Rental 101 Conshohocken State Rd 21 1950 0.76 16 8 8 La Chanterelle Multifamily Condo 414 Old Lancaster Rd 20 1982 0.05 1 0 0 Llanalew Condos Multifamily Condo 100 Llanalew Rd 20 1977 0.05 1 0 2 Mansard House Multifamily Condo 264 W Montgomery Ave 20 1972 0.00 0 0 0 Llanfair Court Apartments Multifamily Rental 200 E Montgomery Ave 20 1960 0.30 6 8 11 Merioneth Apartments Multifamily Rental 20 W Montgomery Ave 20 1962 0.40 8 2 1
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Appendix.2 Individual Building BELMONT HILLS ES OPTION 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT Projection Datasheets YEAR BIRTHS KDG 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 64 49 79 93 84 70 98 473 A. BELMONT HILLS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 2016‐17 91 70 72 82 95 83 73 475 2017‐18 58 46 103 75 84 94 87 489 2018‐19 68 54 67 107 77 84 98 488 2019‐20 72 57 78 69 109 76 87 478
BELMONT HILLS ES OPTION 2 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT YEAR BIRTHS KDG 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 64 49 79 93 84 70 98 472 2016‐17 91 70 72 82 94 82 73 474 2017‐18 58 45 102 75 84 94 86 487 2018‐19 68 54 66 107 77 83 98 485 2019‐20 72 57 77 69 109 76 87 475
BELMONT HILLS ES OPTION 3 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT YEAR BIRTHS KDG 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 64 45 79 92 84 70 98 468 2016‐17 91 65 67 82 94 82 72 462 2017‐18 58 42 95 70 84 93 86 470 2018‐19 68 50 62 99 72 83 97 462 2019‐20 72 53 72 64 101 70 86 446
53 ENROLLMENT STUDY
B. CYNWYD CYNWYD ES OPTION 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT ELEMENTARY SCHOOL YEAR BIRTHS KDG 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 72 49 104 90 106 108 86 542
2016‐17 83 57 72 109 94 110 109 551 2017‐18 84 59 85 77 114 98 112 545 2018‐19 77 56 87 89 81 119 100 531 2019‐20 81 60 81 91 93 84 121 529
CYNWYD ES OPTION 2 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT YEAR BIRTHS KDG 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 72 49 104 90 106 107 86 542 2016‐17 83 57 72 109 93 110 109 550 2017‐18 84 59 84 76 114 98 112 543 2018‐19 77 55 86 89 80 118 99 529 2019‐20 81 59 80 91 93 83 120 526
CYNWYD ES OPTION 3 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT YEAR BIRTHS KDG 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 72 45 104 89 106 107 85 537 2016‐17 83 53 67 109 93 109 108 539 2017‐18 84 55 79 71 114 97 111 526 2018‐19 77 52 81 83 75 118 98 506 2019‐20 81 55 75 84 86 77 119 497
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C. GLADWYNE GLADWYNE ES OPTION 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT ELEMENTARY SCHOOL YEAR BIRTHS KDG 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 104 77 129 111 120 155 144 736
2016‐17 110 82 111 139 119 128 162 741 2017‐18 92 69 117 119 149 127 134 715 2018‐19 98 73 98 126 128 159 133 717 2019‐20 103 77 105 106 135 136 167 725
GLADWYNE ES OPTION 2 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT YEAR BIRTHS KDG 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 104 77 129 111 120 154 144 472 2016‐17 110 82 110 139 119 128 162 474 2017‐18 92 68 117 119 149 127 134 487 2018‐19 98 73 98 126 127 158 133 485 2019‐20 103 77 104 105 135 135 166 475
GLADWYNE ES OPTION 3 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT YEAR BIRTHS KDG 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 104 71 130 111 120 153 143 729 2016‐17 110 75 103 140 119 127 161 724 2017‐18 92 63 109 111 149 125 133 690 2018‐19 98 67 91 117 118 158 131 682 2019‐20 103 71 97 98 125 125 165 680
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D. MERION MERION ES OPTION 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT ELEMENTARY SCHOOL YEAR BIRTHS KDG 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 100 69 106 99 109 113 105 600
2016‐17 100 69 97 112 105 108 116 606 2017‐18 103 71 97 102 118 104 111 603 2018‐19 97 68 100 102 108 117 107 601 2019‐20 102 71 95 106 108 107 120 606
MERION ES OPTION 2 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT YEAR BIRTHS KDG 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 100 69 106 99 109 113 105 600 2016‐17 100 69 96 111 105 108 116 605 2017‐18 103 71 97 102 118 104 111 602 2018‐19 97 67 100 102 107 116 107 599 2019‐20 102 71 94 105 107 106 119 603
MERION ES OPTION 3 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT YEAR BIRTHS KDG 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 100 63 106 99 109 112 105 594 2016‐17 100 64 90 112 104 107 115 592 2017‐18 103 66 90 94 118 103 110 581 2018‐19 97 62 93 95 100 116 105 571 2019‐20 102 66 88 98 100 98 119 567
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E. PENN VALLEY PENN VALLEY ES OPTION 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT ELEMENTARY SCHOOL YEAR BIRTHS KDG 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 97 77 95 136 139 121 131 700
2016‐17 73 59 116 98 144 150 128 695 2017‐18 95 78 89 120 105 157 159 708 2018‐19 84 71 117 92 128 114 165 688 2019‐20 89 75 104 119 98 138 119 654
PENN VALLEY ES OPTION 2 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT YEAR BIRTHS KDG 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 97 77 95 136 139 121 131 700 2016‐17 73 59 116 97 144 150 127 694 2017‐18 95 77 89 120 104 157 159 706 2018‐19 84 70 117 92 128 114 165 685 2019‐20 89 74 104 119 97 138 119 651
PENN VALLEY ES OPTION 3 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT YEAR BIRTHS KDG 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 97 71 96 136 139 121 131 693 2016‐17 73 54 108 98 144 149 126 679 2017‐18 95 72 83 111 105 155 157 683 2018‐19 84 65 109 86 119 113 163 655 2019‐20 89 69 97 111 90 127 118 612
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F. PENN WYNNE PENN WYNNE ES OPTION 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT ELEMENTARY SCHOOL YEAR BIRTHS KDG 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 106 85 133 120 130 116 121 705
2016‐17 112 91 113 137 121 132 120 714 2017‐18 104 85 120 117 139 124 137 722 2018‐19 102 83 111 123 118 142 128 706 2019‐20 108 88 109 115 125 120 147 704
PENN WYNNE ES OPTION 2 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT YEAR BIRTHS KDG 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 106 85 133 120 130 116 121 704 2016‐17 112 90 112 137 121 132 120 713 2017‐18 104 85 119 116 139 124 137 720 2018‐19 102 83 111 123 118 142 128 704 2019‐20 108 88 109 114 124 120 146 700
PENN WYNNE ES OPTION 3 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT YEAR BIRTHS KDG 1 2 3 4 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 106 79 134 119 129 115 121 697 2016‐17 112 84 105 137 121 131 119 697 2017‐18 104 78 111 108 140 123 136 696 2018‐19 102 77 103 114 109 141 126 671 2019‐20 108 81 101 106 115 110 145 659
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G. BALA CYNWYD BALA CYNWYD MS OPTION 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT MIDDLE SCHOOL YEAR 5TH GRADE 6 7 8 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 312 288 290 306 885
2016‐17 345 320 300 298 918 2017‐18 360 356 334 309 999 2018‐19 335 371 371 343 1,085 2019‐20 387 345 386 381 1,113 2020‐21 319 399 360 397 1,156 2021‐22 338 327 413 368 1,108 2022‐23 334 348 340 424 1,112 2023‐24 318 343 361 348 1,051 2024‐25 336 328 356 370 1,054
BALA CYNWYD MS OPTION 2 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT YEAR 5TH GRADE 6 7 8 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 311 288 290 306 884 2016‐17 345 320 299 297 916 2017‐18 359 356 333 308 996 2018‐19 334 370 369 342 1,082 2019‐20 385 344 385 379 1,108 2020‐21 317 397 358 395 1,149 2021‐22 336 325 411 366 1,101 2022‐23 331 345 337 421 1,103 2023‐24 315 340 358 344 1,042 2024‐25 332 324 353 367 1,044 BALA CYNWYD MS OPTION 3 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT YEAR 5TH GRADE 6 7 8 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 311 287 290 305 882 2016‐17 342 318 298 296 911 2017‐18 356 351 331 305 987 2018‐19 330 365 364 338 1,068 2019‐20 383 338 379 373 1,090 2020‐21 291 393 351 388 1,132 2021‐22 309 298 406 358 1,063 2022‐23 305 317 309 415 1,041 2023‐24 290 312 328 315 954 2024‐25 306 297 323 335 956
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H. WELSH VALLEY WELSH VALLEY MS OPTION 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT MIDDLE SCHOOL YEAR 5TH GRADE 6 7 8 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 373 339 342 312 993
2016‐17 363 389 350 350 1,089
2017‐18 380 380 404 360 1,144 2018‐19 397 397 395 415 1,208 2019‐20 373 414 412 405 1,231 2020‐21 367 390 430 423 1,243 2021‐22 374 382 403 440 1,225 2022‐23 342 390 396 414 1,199 2023‐24 347 356 403 405 1,164 2024‐25 366 362 369 414 1,145
WELSH VALLEY MS OPTION 2 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT YEAR 5TH GRADE 6 7 8 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 373 338 341 312 992 2016‐17 362 388 350 349 1,087 2017‐18 379 379 403 360 1,141 2018‐19 396 396 394 414 1,204 2019‐20 372 412 410 403 1,226 2020‐21 365 388 428 421 1,237 2021‐22 371 379 401 437 1,218 2022‐23 339 387 393 411 1,191 2023‐24 344 353 400 402 1,155 2024‐25 363 358 366 411 1,134 WELSH VALLEY MS OPTION 3 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT YEAR 5TH GRADE 6 7 8 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 372 337 341 311 989 2016‐17 359 386 348 348 1,081 2017‐18 375 374 400 357 1,130 2018‐19 391 391 388 410 1,188 2019‐20 369 406 404 396 1,206 2020‐21 336 384 420 414 1,218 2021‐22 342 348 397 429 1,173 2022‐23 312 355 360 405 1,120 2023‐24 316 323 367 367 1,057 2024‐25 334 329 335 375 1,039
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I. HARRITON HARRITON HS OPTION 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT HIGH SCHOOL YEAR 8TH GRADE 9 10 11 12 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 312 327 301 291 304 1,224
2016‐17 350 301 334 310 295 1,241 2017‐18 360 340 310 347 316 1,313 2018‐19 415 349 350 321 353 1,373 2019‐20 405 402 357 360 326 1,445 2020‐21 423 393 410 368 365 1,536 2021‐22 440 410 401 422 372 1,604 2022‐23 414 427 418 412 428 1,685 2023‐24 405 399 435 430 418 1,682 2024‐25 414 391 407 447 436 1,680
HARRITON HS OPTION 2 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT YEAR 8TH GRADE 9 10 11 12 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 312 327 301 291 304 1,223 2016‐17 349 301 334 309 295 1,239 2017‐18 360 339 309 346 315 1,309 2018‐19 414 348 348 320 352 1,368 2019‐20 403 401 355 359 324 1,439 2020‐21 421 391 409 366 363 1,529 2021‐22 437 407 398 420 370 1,596 2022‐23 411 424 416 409 426 1,675 2023‐24 402 397 432 427 414 1,670 2024‐25 411 387 404 444 432 1,667 HARRITON HS OPTION 3 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT YEAR 8TH GRADE 9 10 11 12 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 311 321 298 289 303 1,211 2016‐17 348 293 324 305 292 1,214 2017‐18 357 330 298 334 309 1,271 2018‐19 410 338 336 307 338 1,319 2019‐20 396 388 342 343 309 1,383 2020‐21 414 376 392 350 346 1,464 2021‐22 429 392 380 400 352 1,523 2022‐23 405 406 396 388 403 1,594 2023‐24 367 383 411 404 391 1,589 2024‐25 375 345 387 419 407 1,558
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J. LOWER MERION LOWER MERION HS OPTION 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT HIGH SCHOOL YEAR 8TH GRADE 9 10 11 12 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 306 384 353 330 379 1,446
2016‐17 298 366 391 357 338 1,452
2017‐18 309 359 374 396 367 1,497 2018‐19 343 373 367 379 406 1,525 2019‐20 381 413 380 371 389 1,552 2020‐21 397 453 420 384 379 1,636 2021‐22 368 471 459 423 391 1,745 2022‐23 424 440 478 464 432 1,814 2023‐24 348 503 446 482 473 1,905 2024‐25 370 416 511 450 492 1,869
LOWER MERION HS OPTION 2 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT YEAR 8TH GRADE 9 10 11 12 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 306 383 353 330 379 1,445 2016‐17 297 366 390 357 338 1,450 2017‐18 308 358 374 396 366 1,494 2018‐19 342 371 365 378 405 1,520 2019‐20 379 410 378 369 387 1,545 2020‐21 395 451 417 382 377 1,627 2021‐22 366 468 457 420 389 1,734 2022‐23 421 437 476 461 429 1,802 2023‐24 344 499 443 479 470 1,892 2024‐25 367 412 506 447 489 1,854 LOWER MERION HS OPTION 3 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT YEAR 8TH GRADE 9 10 11 12 TOTAL STUDENTS 2015‐16 305 375 350 328 377 1,430 2016‐17 296 357 378 351 334 1,421 2017‐18 305 350 362 381 359 1,452 2018‐19 338 360 354 364 389 1,467 2019‐20 373 398 364 356 371 1,489 2020‐21 388 433 401 365 362 1,561 2021‐22 358 450 436 402 371 1,659 2022‐23 415 419 454 437 408 1,718 2023‐24 315 481 422 454 444 1,801 2024‐25 335 369 484 422 461 1,738
62