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Lower Merion School District Enrollment Study

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Lower Merion School District Enrollment Study Lower Merion School District Enrollment Study Lower Merion School District Enrollment Study Prepared By The Montgomery County Planning Commission April 27, 2015 Board of School Directors Dr. Robin Vann Lynch - President Dr. Melissa Gilbert - Vice President Laurie Actman Diane DiBonaventuro Ben Driscoll Dr. Marissa Golden Dr. Maureen O'Leary Virginia Pollard Subha Robinson Acting Superintendent Dr. Wagner Marseille, Ed.D. Table of Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Summary of Key Findings .............................................................................................................................. 3 School District Characteristics Population ........................................................................................................................................................ 5 Birth Patterns .................................................................................................................................................. 7 School District Enrollment........................................................................................................................... 9 Alternative School Enrollment .................................................................................................................. 11 Housing Activity Impacts of Housing on Enrollment ........................................................................................................... 15 Housing Units Built ...................................................................................................................................... 17 Housing Units Proposed ............................................................................................................................. 19 Housing Sales ................................................................................................................................................ 21 District Enrollment Projections Cohort Progression Model ........................................................................................................................ 25 Projected Enrollment Summaries ............................................................................................................. 29 Indicators of Projection Change ............................................................................................................... 33 School Profiles ............................................................................................................................................................. 37 Appendix ............................................................................................................................................................................ 50 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT Introduction The study employs the use of a cohort progression model to account for the above factors and form School districts can only plan for their future if they projections for each grade level over the next ten have some idea of what that future will entail. The years. The progression model tracks changes in number of students that will need to be served by grade sizes as they progress each year into the district facilities is the key variable that must be following grade. Over time, the averages of those understood in order to make prudent decisions. progression rates are applied to future grade sizes. This report gives an overview of the population and The additional data and analysis in this report help housing characteristics within the Lower Merion not only explain what has happened in the past but School District (LMSD) in order to establish the also how it will affect the future. These important conditions that have formed the most recent data points should be reviewed every year to enrollment trends. Future enrollments will depend determine if unanticipated activity is occurring and largely upon the following factors: how that might influence the projections and actual Recent and future births enrollments down the line. Housing activity Three years ago, the district hired another consultant, DeJong-Healy, who also used a cohort progression Moves in and out of the school district model to project enrollments. Those projections for Private, charter, home, and cyber school change the overall district have turned out to be fairly accurate after three years. The DeJong numbers for individual buildings were less accurate, especially pertaining to some of the elementary schools. This report is intended to improve upon the remaining projection years from the previous study by incorporating the most recent data and also utilizing detailed geographic information kept on record by the county. More specific and accurate projections for individual buildings and attendance boundaries are expected. 1 ENROLLMENT STUDY FIGURE 1: District School Locations and Elementary School Boundary Areas n n Belmont Hills ES Welsh Valley MS n n Cynwyd ESn Gladwyne ES n Cynwyd MS Penn Valley ES n Harriton HS n Merion ES n Lower Merion HS Belmont Hills Cynwyd n Gladwyne Penn Wynne ES Merion ´ Penn Valley Penn Wynne 2 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT multifamily units will continue to draw even more average almost 100 additional students per year Summary of Key Findings public school children as they offer the lowest barrier for the next five years before starting to decline The Lower Merion School District is in the midst of to families that want to send their children to a high again over the second five year period. A total a major growth spurt that has increased enrollment quality district. of 304 students will be added after ten years. by more than one thousand students over the last five The report implements these findings into three years. This report is intended to identify the most The high schools have been less subject to projection scenarios based on recent trends and a likely causes for this recent growth and then assess growth swings over the last ten years, but that variety of adjustments stemming from observable those causes to best determine how enrollment will will change. Increases in high school enrollment changes in demographic and enrollment patterns. be influenced over the next ten years. will rise throughout the next decade with peak The scenarios result in a high, medium, and low gains scheduled six to eight years out. The total Enrollment growth stems first from the overall projection, but all three options indicate considerable for the high schools will top 3,500 by 2024, an quality, reputation, and appeal of the Lower Merion growth on top of what has already happened in the increase of 1,000 students. School District. This is an underlying driver of all district. A near term reversal of recent growth is factors contributing towards growth, but there are at These are substantial growth figures, especially for virtually impossible since new students from the last the middle and high school levels. They are least three specific factors that have driven the few years are now in the system, especially in the district’s recent growth: supported by real data trends that are already younger grade levels, and most will remain in the occurring within Lower Merion. This report Students in Lower Merion and Narberth have system through their educational life. The forces that highlights those trends and provides the district with been enrolling in private schools at an brought them into the district may still be at work the expectations and understanding needed to plan exceedingly lower rate compared to public bringing more students as well. However, the ahead. school. Whereas about 38% of school-age projected growth will not affect all school levels and Additionally, the appeal of the district to outsiders children were in private school a decade ago, buildings the same. only about 32% attend private school today. should remain at a high level. Many people are The most likely projection scenario, referenced as embracing a more urban lifestyle, especially the This could be a swing of as many as 600-700 Option 2– Medium, implements the progression younger generation of millennials. Lower Merion students going to public school that would not model and adjusts it with increases for additional and Narberth provide walkability, proximity to have ten years ago. students brought on by new multifamily construction employment, public transportation, and one of the Multifamily homes, mostly rental apartments, and more students coming out of existing shortest commutes into downtown Philadelphia. are providing a greater number of public school multifamily developments. The following results are They also still maintain many suburban conveniences children than before. The rate has almost from Option 2: and advantages, including a high quality public doubled over the last eight years. Overall district enrollment will increase by education. Home sales have increased and a greater rate of 1,248 students over the next ten years, with public school students are coming out of these growth at its strongest during the first five of homes that have sold compared to those that those years. Enrollment peaks eight years out in have left the district. 2022, followed by slight declines. These three factors have measurably increased The elementary school level, which has grown enrollments in the LMSD and this growth will the most in recent years, will increase for continue
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