Lower Merion School District 301 East Montgomery Avenue Ardmore, PA 19003
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Demographic Study Public School Enrollments for Lower Merion School District 301 East Montgomery Avenue Ardmore, PA 19003 Prepared by Sundance Associates 117 Greenvale Court Cherry Hill, NJ 08034-1701 Tel 856-755-0174 Fax 856-755-0176 E-mail: [email protected] November 12, 2016 Table of Contents Page Executive Summary i BACKGROUND Public School District Profile 1 Constituent Municipal Profiles 2 Private/Public Schools Comparative Enrollments 4 Private Schools serving the District 5 GENERAL DEMOGRAPHICS Population Growth: Area, County and State 6 Population Growth: Constituent Municipalities 7 2010 Population by Age & Gender Pyramids 8 Comparative Populations by Age Group 9 Births: District Calendar & Municipal Annual Births 10 HOUSING Residential Permitting for New Construction 12 Proposed New Residential Construction Map 14 Proposed New Residential Construction List 15 School Age Children (SAC) from New Housing 16 Public School Age Children (PSAC) from New Housing 18 METHODOLOGY Cohort Survival Projections Standard Methodology 19 Adjustments to Standard Methods; Choice & New Housing 20 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS District Wide Enrollments by Year 21 Elementary Grade K-5 Enrollments 22 Middle School Grade 6-8 Enrollments 23 High School Grade 9-12 Enrollments 24 Comparative Enrollments by Grade Level Organization 25 Belmont Hills Elementary 26 Cynwyd Elementary 27 Gladwyn Elementary 28 Merion Elementary 29 Penn Valley Elementary 30 Penn Wynne Elementary 31 Bala Cynwyd Middle School 32 Welsh Valley Middle School 33 Harriton High School 34 Lower Merion High School 35 APPENDIX: Cohort Survival Worksheets i Lower Merion School District Demographic Study Executive Summary The Methodology used in projecting enrollments is the recommended method of the Pennsylvania Department of Education and is known as “Cohort Survival” or “Grade Level Progression”. The Lower Merion School District (LMSD) had a student population of 8,382 students in 10 schools, organized as 6) Grade K-5 Elementary Schools, 2) Grade 6-8 Middle Schools, and 2) Grade 9-12 High Schools. The Municipalities in the School District include Lower Merion Township and Narberth Borough in Montgomery County. Private School enrollment runs approximately 16% at the Elemen- tary level, 22% at the Middle School level, and 15% at the High School level. Population Trends are such that the LMSD population decreased by 1,976 people from 2000 to 2010. As per 5 decennial census, the area population has been slightly declining since 1970. The LMSD, with a year 2010 Constituent Municipal Populations are declining. Lower Merion constituent population of 62,107 continues to evidence moderate de- Township peaked in 1970 and Narberth Borough peaked in 1950. creases in population as in the last 20 years. Age & Gender Pyramids, with population counts in 5-year age group- ings, show Child Bearing Age groups to be comparably small; and that the School Age and Pre-school Age groups are successively smaller in size. Population by Age Group from 2000 to 2010 reveals stability in all cate- The Childbearing Age group gories except Childbearing age, with greater stability in the School Age Is comparatively small and decreasing group and Pre-School Age groups. Childbearing Age lost 2,600 persons between the 2000 and 2010 census. between 2000 and 2010. School Year Live Births in the LMSD had been generally declining Births over the last 3 years have since year 2006 with a high of 604 Births, and a year 2013 low of 533 increased following 7 years of Births. Births have recently increased to 604 in 2015, the same as the general decline. YEAR 2006 high. Historic Residential permitting for new construction peaked at 112 units in year 2006. Permitting in the last 6 years averages just 40 permits/year. After averaging 40 units per year for the Future Residential Permitting and will increase due to 14 approved last 6 years, permitting will increase to projects totaling 1,901 units. Of those 1,712 will be occupied in time for 425 units per year from 2017-20. school year 2017 or later. School Age Children that will be generated by these 1,712 units The significant increase of new multi- total 245 of which 235 will attend public schools. Modifications to the family housing will generate 235 public LMSD projection for students from accelerated new housing are made in school children. The standard projec- tion is modified to include these this projection. These 235 anticipated new students are added to the pro- children. jection in the appropriate years, schools by attendance area and grade levels. Other Modifications to the projection are made for changes to the The standard projection is also modi- fied to include the impact of changes Choice High School regulations. in High School choice. ii Lower Merion School District Demographic Study Executive Summary District-wide Enrollment increased by 1,022 students in the historic 235 additional students are added to projection period to 8,382 students in 2016. In the projection period, the the standard projection resulting from the impact of accelerated new residen- district enrollment will again increase by 892 students to 9,274, and will tial construction. increase again by 94 students in the extended period to 9,367 students. Elementary School Enrollment for Grades K-5 increased 493 students Elementary enrollments increased by 493 students in the historic period and in the historic period ending at 3,779 students in 2016. Enrollments in the will then decrease by 22 students in projection period, will decrease by 22 students including 109 elementary the projection period. level students from new housing. Enrollments decrease in the extended projection period by an additional 28 students to a low of 3,729. Individu- al schools are as follows; Middle School Enrollments, for Grades 6- 8, increased by 205 students to end the historic perid at a new high of 1,933 students. During the pro- Middle School enrollments increased by 205 students in the historic period and jection period, enrollments increase by an additional 424 students to a will peak at the end of the 5-year projec- peak of 2,357 students at the end of the period. During the extended pro- tion period at 2,357 students after jection period, enrollments decrease by 98 students to 2,259 students by increasing an additional424 students year 2026, the end of the extended projection period. Individual schools are as follows; High School Enrollments for grades 9-12, increased by 324 students High school enrollments increased by 324 students to 2,670 in the historic to 2,670 at the end of the historic period. During the projected period, period. The projected period will in- enrollments will increase to 3,160 in 2021, an additional increase of crease by 490 students and the extend- 490 student increase over the end of the historic period. During the ex- ed period by an additional 219 student. tended projection period enrollments will again increase by 219 students High school projections peak in year before ending the period at 3,379 students after peaking in 2024 at 3,440 2024 at 3,440 students. students. Individual schools are as follows; iii Lower Merion School District Demographic Study Profile: School District Lower Merion School District, or LMSD, is a public school district located 1. Bala Cynwyd Middle School in Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, United States. 510 Bryn Mawr Ave Bala Cynwyd PA 19004-2740 The school district includes residents of both Lower Merion Township 610-645-1480 and the Borough of Narberth. Established in 1836, LMSD is one of the oldest districts in Pennsylvania. It is the wealthiest school district in the 2. Belmont Hills Elem School state, and one of the wealthiest school districts in the country. 200 School Street Bala Cynwyd PA 19004-1997 SOURCE: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lower_Merion_School_District 610-645-1420 3. Cynwyd Elem School 101 W Levering Mill Rd Bala Cynwyd PA 19004-2738 610-645-1430 LMSD in Montgomery County, PA 4. Gladwyne Elem School 230 West Righters Mill Rd Gladwyne, Pa 19035-1533 610-645-1440 5. Harriton Sr High Sch 600 N Ithan Ave. Rosemont, Pa 19010-1773 610-658-3950 6. Lower Merion High Sch 315 E Montgomery Ave. Ardmore, Pa 19003-3339 610-545-1810 7. Merion Elem School 549 S Bowman Ave Merion Station, Pa 19066-1418 610-645-1470 8. Penn Valley Elem School 301 Righters Mill Rd. Narberth, Pa 19072-1316 610-645-1460 9. Penn Wynne Elem School 250 Haverford Rd. Wynnewood, Pa 19096-3203 610-645-1450 10 Welsh Valley Middle School . 325 Tower Lane Narberth, Pa 19072-1105 610-658-3920 SOURCE: http://www.melissadata.com/lookups/MapSchool.asp?geoid=4214160 Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 1 Lower Merion Township Municipal Level Demographics Lower Merion Township is a township in Montgomery County, Pennsyl- vania and part of the Pennsylvania Main Line. As of the 2010 U.S. Cen- sus, the township had a total population of 57,825. Lower Merion has the 5th highest per-capita income and the 12th highest median household income in the country with a population of 50,000 or more. According to the United States Census Bureau, the township has a total area of 23.9 square miles (61.8 km²), of which, 23.7 square miles (61.4 km²) of it is land and 0.2 square miles (0.4 km²) of it (0.67%) is water. As of the 2010 census, the township was 85.7% White, 5.6% Black or African American, 0.1% Native American, 6.0% Asian, and 1.9% were two or more races. 3.0% of the population were of Hispanic or Latino ancestry. As of the census of 2000, there were 59,850 people, 22,868 households, and 15,024 families residing in the township.