Lower Merion School District 301 East Montgomery Avenue Ardmore, PA 19003

Demographic Study Public School Enrollments for Lower Merion School District 301 East Montgomery Avenue Ardmore, PA 19003

Prepared by

Sundance Associates 117 Greenvale Court Cherry Hill, NJ 08034-1701

Tel 856-755-0174 Fax 856-755-0176 E-mail: [email protected]

November 12, 2016

Table of Contents

Page Executive Summary i

BACKGROUND Public School District Profile 1 Constituent Municipal Profiles 2 Private/Public Schools Comparative Enrollments 4 Private Schools serving the District 5

GENERAL DEMOGRAPHICS Population Growth: Area, County and State 6 Population Growth: Constituent Municipalities 7 2010 Population by Age & Gender Pyramids 8 Comparative Populations by Age Group 9 Births: District Calendar & Municipal Annual Births 10

HOUSING Residential Permitting for New Construction 12 Proposed New Residential Construction Map 14 Proposed New Residential Construction List 15 School Age Children (SAC) from New Housing 16 Public School Age Children (PSAC) from New Housing 18

METHODOLOGY Cohort Survival Projections Standard Methodology 19 Adjustments to Standard Methods; Choice & New Housing 20

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS District Wide Enrollments by Year 21 Elementary Grade K-5 Enrollments 22 Middle School Grade 6-8 Enrollments 23 High School Grade 9-12 Enrollments 24 Comparative Enrollments by Grade Level Organization 25

Belmont Hills Elementary 26 Cynwyd Elementary 27 Gladwyn Elementary 28 Merion Elementary 29 Penn Valley Elementary 30 Penn Wynne Elementary 31

Bala Cynwyd Middle School 32 Welsh Valley Middle School 33

Harriton High School 34 Lower Merion High School 35

APPENDIX: Cohort Survival Worksheets

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study

Executive Summary

The Methodology used in projecting enrollments is the recommended method of the Pennsylvania Department of Education and is known as “Cohort Survival” or “Grade Level Progression”.

The Lower Merion School District (LMSD) had a student population of 8,382 students in 10 schools, organized as 6) Grade K-5 Elementary Schools, 2) Grade 6-8 Middle Schools, and 2) Grade 9-12 High Schools.

The Municipalities in the School District include Lower Merion Township and Narberth Borough in Montgomery County.

Private School enrollment runs approximately 16% at the Elemen- tary level, 22% at the Middle School level, and 15% at the High School level.

Population Trends are such that the LMSD population decreased by 1,976 people from 2000 to 2010. As per 5 decennial census, the area population has been slightly declining since 1970. The LMSD, with a year 2010 Constituent Municipal Populations are declining. Lower Merion constituent population of 62,107 continues to evidence moderate de- Township peaked in 1970 and Narberth Borough peaked in 1950. creases in population as in the last 20 years. Age & Gender Pyramids, with population counts in 5-year age group- ings, show Child Bearing Age groups to be comparably small; and that the School Age and Pre-school Age groups are successively smaller in size.

Population by Age Group from 2000 to 2010 reveals stability in all cate- The Childbearing Age group gories except Childbearing age, with greater stability in the School Age Is comparatively small and decreasing group and Pre-School Age groups. Childbearing Age lost 2,600 persons between the 2000 and 2010 census. between 2000 and 2010.

School Year Live Births in the LMSD had been generally declining Births over the last 3 years have since year 2006 with a high of 604 Births, and a year 2013 low of 533 increased following 7 years of Births. Births have recently increased to 604 in 2015, the same as the general decline. YEAR 2006 high.

Historic Residential permitting for new construction peaked at 112 units in year 2006. Permitting in the last 6 years averages just 40 permits/year. After averaging 40 units per year for the Future Residential Permitting and will increase due to 14 approved last 6 years, permitting will increase to projects totaling 1,901 units. Of those 1,712 will be occupied in time for 425 units per year from 2017-20. school year 2017 or later.

School Age Children that will be generated by these 1,712 units The significant increase of new multi- total 245 of which 235 will attend public schools. Modifications to the family housing will generate 235 public LMSD projection for students from accelerated new housing are made in school children. The standard projection is modified to include these this projection. These 235 anticipated new students are added to the pro- children. jection in the appropriate years, schools by attendance area and grade levels. .

Other Modifications to the projection are made for changes to the The standard projection is also modified to include the impact of changes Choice High School regulations. in High School choice.

ii Lower Merion School District Demographic Study

Executive Summary

District-wide Enrollment increased by 1,022 students in the historic 235 additional students are added to projection period to 8,382 students in 2016. In the projection period, the the standard projection resulting from the impact of accelerated new residen- district enrollment will again increase by 892 students to 9,274, and will tial construction. increase again by 94 students in the extended period to 9,367 students.

Elementary School Enrollment for Grades K-5 increased 493 students Elementary enrollments increased by 493 students in the historic period and in the historic period ending at 3,779 students in 2016. Enrollments in the will then decrease by 22 students in projection period, will decrease by 22 students including 109 elementary the projection period. level students from new housing. Enrollments decrease in the extended projection period by an additional 28 students to a low of 3,729. Individu- al schools are as follows;

Middle School Enrollments, for Grades 6- 8, increased by 205 students to end the historic perid at a new high of 1,933 students. During the pro- Middle School enrollments increased by 205 students in the historic period and jection period, enrollments increase by an additional 424 students to a will peak at the end of the 5-year projec- peak of 2,357 students at the end of the period. During the extended pro- tion period at 2,357 students after jection period, enrollments decrease by 98 students to 2,259 students by increasing an additional424 students year 2026, the end of the extended projection period. Individual schools are as follows;

High School Enrollments for grades 9-12, increased by 324 students High school enrollments increased by 324 students to 2,670 in the historic to 2,670 at the end of the historic period. During the projected period, period. The projected period will in- enrollments will increase to 3,160 in 2021, an additional increase of crease by 490 students and the extend- 490 student increase over the end of the historic period. During the ex- ed period by an additional 219 student. tended projection period enrollments will again increase by 219 students High school projections peak in year before ending the period at 3,379 students after peaking in 2024 at 3,440 2024 at 3,440 students. students. Individual schools are as follows;

iii

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study

Profile: School District

Lower Merion School District, or LMSD, is a public school district located 1. Bala Cynwyd Middle School in Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, United States. 510 Bryn Mawr Ave Bala Cynwyd PA 19004-2740 The school district includes residents of both Lower Merion Township 610-645-1480 and the Borough of Narberth. Established in 1836, LMSD is one of the oldest districts in Pennsylvania. It is the wealthiest school district in the 2. Belmont Hills Elem School state, and one of the wealthiest school districts in the country. 200 School Street Bala Cynwyd PA 19004-1997 SOURCE: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lower_Merion_School_District 610-645-1420

3. Cynwyd Elem School 101 W Levering Mill Rd Bala Cynwyd PA 19004-2738 610-645-1430 LMSD in Montgomery County, PA 4. Gladwyne Elem School 230 West Righters Mill Rd Gladwyne, Pa 19035-1533 610-645-1440

5. Harriton Sr High Sch 600 N Ithan Ave. Rosemont, Pa 19010-1773 610-658-3950

6. Lower Merion High Sch 315 E Montgomery Ave. Ardmore, Pa 19003-3339 610-545-1810

7. Merion Elem School 549 S Bowman Ave Merion Station, Pa 19066-1418 610-645-1470

8. Penn Valley Elem School 301 Righters Mill Rd. Narberth, Pa 19072-1316 610-645-1460

9. Penn Wynne Elem School 250 Haverford Rd. Wynnewood, Pa 19096-3203 610-645-1450

10 Welsh Valley Middle School . 325 Tower Lane Narberth, Pa 19072-1105 610-658-3920

SOURCE: http://www.melissadata.com/lookups/MapSchool.asp?geoid=4214160

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 1

Lower Merion Township Municipal Level Demographics

Lower Merion Township is a township in Montgomery County, Pennsyl- vania and part of the Pennsylvania Main Line. As of the 2010 U.S. Cen- sus, the township had a total population of 57,825. Lower Merion has the 5th highest per-capita income and the 12th highest median household income in the country with a population of 50,000 or more.

According to the United States Census Bureau, the township has a total area of 23.9 square miles (61.8 km²), of which, 23.7 square miles (61.4 km²) of it is land and 0.2 square miles (0.4 km²) of it (0.67%) is water.

As of the 2010 census, the township was 85.7% White, 5.6% Black or African American, 0.1% Native American, 6.0% Asian, and 1.9% were two or more races. 3.0% of the population were of Hispanic or Latino ancestry.

As of the census of 2000, there were 59,850 people, 22,868 households, and 15,024 families residing in the township. The population density was 2,526.1 people per square mile (975.4/km²). There were 23,699 housing units at an average density of 1,000.3/sq mi (386.2/km²). The racial makeup of the township was 90.30% White, 4.50% African American, 0.08% Native American, 3.42% Asian, 0.07% Pacific Islander, 0.50% from other races and 1.12% from two or more races. Hispanic or Latino of any race were 1.60% of the population.

There were 22,868 households, out of which 29.4% had children under the age of 18 living with them, 56.7% were married couples living together, 7.0% had a female householder with no husband present, and 34.3% were non-families. 28.3% of all households were made up of individuals, and 12.4% had someone living alone who was 65 years of age or older. The average household size was 2.42 and the average family size was 2.99.

In the township the population was spread out, with 21.7% under the age of 18, 10.7% from 18 to 24, 23.0% from 25 to 44, 26.2% from 45 to 64 and 18.5% who were 65 years of age or older. The median age was 41 years. For every 100 females there were 83.5 males. For every 100 women aged 18 and over, there were 78.7 males.

The median income for a household in the township was $86,373, and the median income for a family was $115,694 (these figures had risen to $114,608 and $148,123 respectively as of a 2007 estimate. Men had a median income of $77,692 versus $43,793 for women. The per capita income for the township was $55,526. About 1.9% of families and 4.5% of the population were below the poverty line, including 2.8% of those under age 18 and 5.6% of those age 65 or over.

SOURCE: Wikipedia for Lower Merion, Pa found on-line at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lower_Merion_Township,_Pennsylvania accessed on November 11, 2016.

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 2

Borough Narberth Municipal Level Demographics

Narberth is a borough in Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, United States. The population was 4,282 at the 2010 census. According to the United States Census Bureau, the borough has a total area of 0.5 square miles (1.3 km2), all of it land

Narberth is located on a parcel of land originally deeded to Edward Rees (which later became “Prees” and eventually “Price”), who arrived from Wales in 1682. A portion of this original tract became the 100-acre (0.40 km2) farm of Edward R. Price, who founded Elm as a Quaker- friendly town in 1881. The town name changed to Narberth in 1893, and Narberth was incorporated in 1895. In 1995, the borough celebrated its 100th birthday with a year-long celebration.

As of the 2010 census, the borough was 90.4% White, 1.9% Black or Afri- can American, 4.4% Asian, 0.1% Native Hawaiian, and 2.7% were two or more races. 2.4% of the population were of Hispanic or Latino ancestry.

As of the census of 2000, there were 4,233 people, 1,904 households, and 1,037 families residing in the borough. The population density was 8,571.7 people per square mile (3,335.4/km2). There were 1,981 housing units at an average density of 4,011.5 per square mile (1,561.0/km2). The racial makeup of the borough was 95.23% White, 1.18% African Ameri- can, 0.12% Native American, 2.27% Asian, 0.14% from other races, and 1.06% from two or more races. Hispanic or Latino of any race were 1.39% of the population.

There were 1,904 households, out of which 26.3% had children under the age of 18 living with them, 44.9% were married couples living together, 7.8% had a female householder with no husband present, and 45.5% were non-families. 37.2% of all households were made up of individuals, and 10.2% had someone living alone who was 65 years of age or older. The average household size was 2.22 and the average family size was 3.02.

In the borough the population was spread out, with 22.3% under the age of 18, 5.2% from 18 to 24, 34.9% from 25 to 44, 24.9% from 45 to 64, and 12.7% who were 65 years of age or older. The median age is 39.6 years. For every 100 females there were 85.1 males. For every 100 females age 18 and over, there were 81.0 males.

The median income for a household in the borough is $79,822. Males had a median income of $59,076 versus $41,518 for females. The per capita income for the borough was $35,165. About 2.6% of families and 3.4% of the population were below the poverty line, including 2.5% of those under age 18 and 6.4% of those age 65 or over.

The borough has many square blocks of fine old Victorian homes and apartment buildings, and most its families live north and west of down- town areas, extending north along Montgomery Avenue to North Wynne- wood Avenue.

SOURCE: Wikipedia for Narberth, Pa found on-line at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narberth_Pennsylvania accessed on November 11, 2016.

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 3

Public & Private Schools Comparative Enrollment 2010-14

The following data is an average of the period 2010-14 from the Ameri- can Community Survey 5-Year estimates.

Kindergarten enrollment was at 79.5% public, approximately 5% more than the county and 5% less than the state.

Elementary School (Grades 1-4) at 84.4% public is 5% more than the comparable county and about the same as the state public school enrollment levels.

Middle School (Grade 5-8) at 78.1% public is about 3% less than the comparable county and 7% less than the state public school enrollments.

High School (Grade 9-12) at 85.6% public is about 3% more than the comparable county and 1% less than the state public school enrollments.

With a district-wide enrollment around 8,400 students, each 1% is the equivalent of 84 students or four (4) classrooms.

SOURCE: American Community Survey 2010-14 found at http://factfinder.census.gov/ faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 4

Private Schools Listing

The private schools in the Lower Merion School District geographic area are having minimal impact on the enrollments, except for the general trend of moderately declining private school enrollment

No adjustments are made to the standard projection for private school enrollments. Trends are included in the standard projection.

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 5

Population Growth Comparative SD Area, County and State

The LMSD population was 62,107 persons, as of the US Census 2010. The LMSD population was 62,107 persons as of the US Census 2010. The school district area had a population of only 54,152 in 1950 and grew 19.2 % to 1960, the largest decade of growth. 1950-1960 was the largest decade of growth with an increase of over 10,300 The District population decreased from 1970-80, 1980-90 and 2000-10. persons.

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 6

Population Growth Constituent Municipalities

Narberth population peaked in 1950 at 5,407 persons.

Lower Merion Population peaked in 1970.

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 7

2010 Population Age & Gender Pyramid

The Age & Gender Pyramid for the School District (combined municipalities) illustrates population counts in 5 year groups with Males on the left and Females on the right, as of the 2010 U S Census.

Of particular interest in school demography is the size of the prime The under 5 age group is 916 persons childbearing age groups between 20 and 39 years of age. The female smaller than the 10-14 age group. counts in these groups are significantly reduced.

Of very real importance is that the 5-9 and then the Under 5 group is smaller and smaller as we move down the pyramid indicating smaller future enrollments.

Child Bearing Age

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 8

Comparative Population by Age Groups

Population by Age Group from 2000 to 2010 reveals changes in all but the Pre-School and School Age category.

Pre-School Age (0-4) increased by 44 between 2000 and 2010. Over the 10-year period, 2000-2010, Pre-School counts and School Age pop- School Age (5-17) decreased by only 28 students between 2000 and ulations were stable. 2010, an insignificant decrease.

Childbearing Age (18-39) decreased by 2,604 between 2000 and 2010 providing a potential for fewer births than in the past. As exhibited on page 10, Births were declining, but have increased the last 3 years.

Middle Age (40-64) increased by 880 between 2000 and 2010.

Seniors (65+) decreased by 268 persons between 2000 and 2010.

The stable Pre-School age group and stable School Age group supports a stable school enrollment, while the significant decrease in the Child Bearing Age group also indicates a possibility of decreasing Births.

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 9

District Annual Births

The number of babies born to families who reside in the district is a significant factor effecting enrollments. October to September “School Year” Birth counts from “5 years earlier” are used for the “Birth to Kinder- garten” Survival Ratios in the standard Cohort Survival projection method. They are the starting point for all cohorts. Births have been averaging 561 per year for the last 6 years paralleling the last 6 years of historic enrollment data Live Births in the area municipalities have been declining since year on which the projection is based. 2006 with a high of 604 Births, and a year 2013 low of 533 Births. The 6-year trend, is perhaps more indicative of recent levels of birth. The The 6-year trend is for about 8 more 6-year trend is for about 8 more births every year. births per year. However births could easily turn around and increase with an improved economy. However births could easily turn around and increase with an improved economy. It is for that reason that the Cohort Survival methodology is It is for that reason that the Cohort based on averages. The 6-year average is from the same years as the Survival methodology is based on averages. 6-years of historic enrollments that is the basis of the Cohort Survival projection used in this study. The 6-year average is 561 births per year.

Births are not available for year 2016 and forward, however data for Live Births through year 2024 are used in the 10-year projection. The recent 6-year average of 561 is used for those years.

SOURCE: The Health Statistics web pages maintained by the Division of Health Informatics within the Pennsylvania Department of Health found at http://www.statistics.health.pa.gov/Pages/default.aspx#.VckGXzZRGUk

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 10

Municipal Annual Births

Live Births in each contributing municipality are provided below.

Lower Merion births peaked at 553 in year 2006, and was a low of 479 in year 2013.

Narberth births have been stable just under 50.

Combined births peaked in 2015 at 607.

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 11

Past Residential Permitting by Municipality

Residential Permitting is significantly lower in the recent past.

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 12

Residential Permitting for New Construction Recession Levels

A Building Permit is obtained by a developer after approval of a major sub-division, and when construction of a “next phase” of residential units is eminent. Residential permits may also be for construction by an own- er of a single house along an existing roadway. Significantly, there is less development in the District in recent years. Residential permitting in the historic period peaked at 112 units in 2006.

The recent 6-year average of Residential Permits in years 2009 to 2014 The recent 6-year annual average (2008- is 40 units per year, largely Single Family. 2013) of residential units is just 40 units per year.

The future Multi-Family permits as graphed below are from approved of Year 2017 permitting is expected to be nearly approved housing as determined by local planning officials and an historic high of 635 units. further outlined on the following page. Build-out schedules by the Devel- opers anticipate permitting as high as 635 units in 2016 and 512 units in 2020.

SOURCE: Local Planning Departments

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 13

Residential Permitting for New Construction Location Map

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 14

Proposed Residential Construction by Year & Unit Type

There are 14 significant Multi- Family Residential Develop- ments, totaling over 1,900 units, that generate adjustments to the standard Cohort Survival methodology.

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 15

New School Age Children from New Construction

To estimate the number of School Age Children (SAC), or the Public School Age Children (PSAC), “multipliers” are applied to the number of units. After determination of the number of School Age Children, they are scheduled for entry into the school system based upon the construction schedule.

The source for the multipliers is Who Lives in Pennsylvania Housing, a Quick Guide to Pennsylvania Residential Demographic Multipliers by the Center for Urban Policy Research of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, as developed from the 2000 U. S. Census.

Five different multipliers are used in this study for each Type of housing (Rental Apartments and Condominium) and number of Bedrooms.

Application of the multipliers for unit types determines that 1,901 units over five years (beginning in year 2016) will generate 279 School Age Children and 268 Public School Age Children.

However, only students from 2017 and forward are added to the projection. Application of the multipliers for unit types determines that 1,712 units over four years (beginning in year 2017) will generate 245 School Age Children and 235 Public School Age Children.

A full tabulation of SAC and PSAC appears on the following pages.

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 16

New School Age Children from New Construction

Application of the SAC multipliers for unit types determines that 1,901 units over four years will generate 244 School Age Chil- dren.

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 17

Public School Age Children from New Construction

However, not all of the School Age Children will attend public school. Use of Public SAC Multipliers gen- erates only 235 students attending the public schools.

In year 2017, 101 students will be added across all 13 grade levels (about 7.8 per grade). Similarly, 35 are added in 2018, 35 in 2019, and 63 in year 2020, for a cumulative total of 235 new students.

In addition to a District-wide projection, this study also provides School-level projections. For that purpose, it is imperative that students from new housing that are added to the standard projection, be added in the correct school according to geographic bounda- ries for individual schools.

Specific school geographies im- pacted by the developments are as follows.

Cynwyd 149 students 69 students to elementary grades

Penn Wynne 26 students 12 students to elementary grades

Penn Valley 59 students 23 students to elementary grades

Bala Cynwyd MS 176 students 41 students to MS grades

Welsh Valley MS 59 students 14 to MS grades

Harriton High School 59 students 18 to High School grades

Lower Merion HS 176 students 56 to High School grades

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 18

Lower Cohort Survival Methodology Merion An Introduction SD

Cohort Survival is the name given to the method of projecting enrollments which is recommended by the Pennsylvania Department of Education. The most important terms, concepts and methodology are illustrated herein.

Cohort Survival projections are based on historic enrollment and birth Enrollment projections have been made data in the school district and incorporate six years of demographic data. using the Cohort Survival method. They are considered very reliable where trends are expected to continue, without significant change in housing or curriculum.

Cohort is the name given to the common groups of children originally born in a given year and progressing, together, through the school system, one grade level to the next.

Survival Ratios refer to the number of students from one year and grade level who “survive to” or enter the next grade level the following year. Historic Enrollments For example, in the sample partial table in the side bar, historic enrollments show 672 students in 1st Grade in year 2015-16, following a 454 student Kindergarten in year 2014-15. This yields a Kindergarten to First Grade Survival Ratio of 1.480 (or 672 ÷ 454). Another expression of the Survival Ratio would be that 148% of the Kindergarten students “survived” to 1st Grade.

Similar calculations are made for “survival” from Births Five Years Earlier to Kindergarten, and for each and every grade level transition in each and every year of historical enrollments which are used. In general, six years of historic data will yield five Survival Ratios for each grade level change, Birth to K, K to 1, Grade 1 to Grade 2, etc.

The Average Survival Ratio is then calculated for each grade level change. In the side-bar example 1.436 is the 6-year average Kindergar- ten to Grade 1 ratio and 1.036 is the 6-year Grade 1 to Grade 2 Survival Ratio.

The projections use the current school year 2016-17 enrollments, at the bottom of the Historic chart, as a base year. The Averaged Cohort Survival Ratios are applied to those base year enrollments and to the Projected Enrollments actual and estimated births, and projected into the next year, one grade level higher.

In the side-bar example 416 Kindergarten students in 2017-18 survive at a rate of 1.436 as a 2018-19 First Grade of 597 students. This similar projection is made across all grade levels for a 5-year period.

Finally, the individual grade level enrollment projections are summed across each year to determine district-wide enrollments in that year.

NOTE: The full worksheets for the standard District projection and the adjusted for accelerated housing projection can be found in the Appendix.

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 19

Cohort Survival Methodology Adjustments Adjustments to Standard Methods for High School Choice and for Accelerated New Housing

High School Choice

The High School Choice program was modified for School Year 2017-18. In order to account for that change, the Survival Rates for the High School include only the SRs since that change (four years of enrollment provides 3 SRs).

This adjustment results in 14 fewer High School students at the end of 5 years, and an increase of 11 students to Lower Merion HS and a decrease of 25 students to Harriton HS.

New Housing

As previously determined, 235 students are added to the projection from new housing. They are added in specific years according to the Devel- opers plans, and in specific geographies.

In this sample from the District-wide projection, 35 students are added in 2018-19 the second year of the projection. 35 students are evenly dis- tributed across all 13 grade levels at the rate of 2.73 students. This is rounded to 3 on the worksheet.

The calculation is then made as follows; 424 Kindergarden students are survived at a rate of 1.436, to which is added 2.73 students to project a First Grade class of 611.

This result is 597 students in the standard projection, a difference of 14 students after two years of new students from accelerated housing.

The District-wide difference between the combined Choice/Housing and the Standard projection, is 208 students at the end of 5 years.

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 20

District-Wide Enrollment

During the historic period, district-wide enrollments were increasing The District averaged 7,946 students in 13.9% with a peak in year 2016, with a count of 8,382 students, and with the historic period, and will average 8,945 in the projection period and a low of 7,360 at the beginning of the historic period. 9,385 in the extended projection period.

Growth in the last year was only 41 students compared with a prior 4-year average of 245 students. Growth has slowed.

During the projected period, enrollments will increase 10.3% by 892 students to a period high of 9,274 students in year 2021.

During the extended projection period, enrollments will increase to a period high of 9,400 students in year 2023.

During the projection period, 235 Public School Age Children (SAC) will enter the district from new housing.

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 21

Elementary Schools Kindergarten-Grade 5

Elementary level students are educated in six Grade K to 5 Elementary Elementary level enrollments averaged Schools. Grades K to 5 enrollments increased from a low of 3,286 to a 3,577 students in the historic period, will average 3,798 students in the projection high of 3,779 students in the historic period, with growth of 493 students. period, and will average 3,779 students in the extended projection period. In the projection period, K-Grade 5 enrollments stabilize and ultimately decrease by 22 students to 3,757 students at the end of the projection 109 students are added to the elementary projection from new housing. period in year 2021, and to 3,729 at the end of the extended projection.

Projected enrollments are below historic levels in both 5-year periods.

A year-to-year breakdown by grade level is as follows;

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 22

Middle School Grades 6-8

Middle school students attend two schools serving Grades 6 to 8. During the historic period, middle school enrollments increased by 206 students to an end of period count of 1,933.

During the projected period, enrollments increase to a high of 2,357 students at the end of the period,424 students higher than the end of the historic period. During the extended projection period, enrollments will decrease 98 students to 2,259 students in year 2026, 326 more than at the October 2016 end of the historic period

A year-to-year breakdown by grade level is as follows; Middle School enrollments which averaged 1,842 students in the historic period, will increase to an average of 2,231 students in the projection period, before increasing to an average of 2,235 students in the extended projection period.

54 middle school students are added from new housing.

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 23

High School Enrollment Grade 9-12

High School students are educated in two schools for Grades 9 to 12. During the historic period, high school enrollments increased, from 2,346 to 2,670 students, ending the period with a gain of 324 students.

During the projected period, enrollments increase to 3,160 students in 2021, an additional student increase of 490 over the end of the historic period.

During the extended projection period enrollments will peak at 3,440 students in year 2024, before decreasing to 3,379 in year 2025.

A year-to-year breakdown by grade level is as follows;

High School enrollments which averaged 2,527 students in the historic period, will average 2,916 students in the projection period, before increasing to an average of 3,371 students in the extended projection period.

72 students are added from new housing to the High School projection.

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 24

Comparative Enrollments by Grade Level Organization

Grade K-5 enrollments will peak at 3,813 students in year 2017 before stabilizing.

Grades 6-8 enrollments will peak at 2,357 students in 2021 at the end of the 5-year projection period.

Grades 9-12 High School enrollments will peak at 3,440 student in 2024 in the middle of the extended projection period.

K-Gr 5 enrollments peak in 2017, Gr 6-8 enrollments will peak in 2021 and Gr 9-12 enrollments will peak in 2024.

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 25

Elementary Enrollments Belmont Hills ES

Historic K to Grade 5 enrollments at the Belmont Hills School have been Belmont Hills enrollments, which gradually increasing. The historic period averages 469 students and increased in the historic period by 34 students, will stabilize in the future. ended at 485 students.

The projected period averages 498 students and the extended projection period averages 487 students. No students are from new housing.

A year-to-year breakdown by grade level is as follows;

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 26

Elementary Enrollments Cynwyd ES

Grade K-5 enrollments at the Cynwyd School are moderately fluctu- Cynwyd enrollments average 531 students in the historic period, ating. The peak in 2015 was 559 students. 539 in the projection period and 540 in the extended period. Enrollments will decline by11 students in the projection period, and then by 19 students in the extended projection period. 69 Children are added from new housing.

69 children are added from new housing.

A year-to-year breakdown by grade level is as follows;

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 27

Elementary Enrollments Gladwyn ES

Historic Gladwyn enrollments peaked in year 2015 at 738 students Gladwyn enrollments average before ending the period at 731 students. The historic period averaged 703 students in the historic period, 757 in the projection period and 703 students. 761 in the extended period.

The projected period averages 757 students with an overall gain of 28 No children are added from new students; and the extended projection period averages 761 students with housing. a decrease of 4 students

A year-to-year breakdown by grade level is as follows;

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 28

Elementary Enrollments Merion ES

Grade K-5 enrollments peaked in year 2015 at 614 students. The Merion enrollments average historic period averaged 570 students. 570 students in the historic period, 590 in the projection period and 597 in the extended period.. The projected period decreases by 29 students and averages 590 students. Extended projections increase by 11 students and averages 597 No children are added from new students. housing.

A year-to-year breakdown by grade level is as follows;

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 29

Elementary Enrollments Penn Valley ES

Penn Valley historic enrollments peaked in year 2015 at 705 stu- Penn Valley enrollments average dents, before ending the period at 667 students. The historic period 644 students in the historic period, 656 in the projection period and averaged 644 students. 661 in the extended period..

The projected period averages 656 students ending with an overall loss 23 children are added from new of 30 students; and the extended projection period averages 661 stu- housing. dents with an overall increase of 17 students.

A year-to-year breakdown by grade level is as follows;

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 30

Elementary Enrollments Penn Wynne ES

Penn Wynne historic enrollments peaked this October 2016 at 549 Penn Wynne enrollments average students. The historic period averaged 659 students. 659 students in the historic period, 769 in the projection period and 754 in the extended period.. The projected period averages 769 students with a period high of 782 students in 2019; and the extended projection period averages 754 stu- 12 children are added from new dents with a period decrease of 14 student. housing.

A year-to-year breakdown by grade level is as follows;

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 31

Middle School Enrollments Bala Cynwyd MS

Bala Cynwyd historic enrollments peaked in year 2013 at 922 stu- Bala Cynwyd MS enrollments average dents and decreased to 915, 50 students more than at the beginning of 894 students in the historic period, 1,112 in the projection period and the period. The historic period averaged 894 students. 1,112 in the extended period..

The projected period averages 1,112 students and peaks at 1,175 stu- 41 children are added from new dents in year 2021, following an increase of 260 students. The extended housing. projection period also averages 1,112 students with a period decrease of 48 students.

A year-to-year breakdown by grade level is as follows;

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 32

Middle School Enrollments Welsh Valley MS

Welsh Valley historic enrollments peaked in year 2016 at 1,018 stu- Welsh Valley MS enrollments average dents. The historic period averaged 948 students. 948 students in the historic period, 1,120 in the projection period and 1,140 in the extended period.. The projected period averages 1,120 students ending with a period gain of 173 students after the addition of 14 school age children from new 14 children are added from new housing; and the extended projection period averages 1,140 students housing. with period fluctuations.

A year-to-year breakdown by grade level is as follows;

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 33

High School Enrollments Harriton HS

Harriton High School historic enrollments peaked in year 2016 at Harriton HS enrollments average 1230 students. The historic period averaged 1,181 students. 1,181 students in the historic period, 1,319 in the projection period and 1,527 in the extended period.. The projection period averages 1,318 students, peaks at 1,423 students in year 2020, and ends with a period gain of 193 students, 18 of which 18 children are added from new are from new housing. The extended projection period averages 1,527 housing. students with a period increase of 109 students.

A year-to-year breakdown by grade level is as follows;

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 34

High School Enrollments Lower Merion HS

Lower Merion High School historic enrollments peaked in year 2015 Lower Merion HS enrollments average at 1230 students. The historic period averaged 1,347 students. 1,347 students in the historic period, 1,599 in the projection period and 1,845 in the extended period.. The projection period averages 1,599 students, peaks at 1,736 students in year 2021, and ends with a period gain of 296 students, 56 of which 56 children are added from new are from new housing. The extended projection period averages 1,845 housing. students with a period increase of 112 students.

A year-to-year breakdown by grade level is as follows;

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 35

Appendix:

COHORT SURVIVAL WORKSHEETS

Standard Methodology

Adjusted for Choice Change and for Impact of Accelerated Residential Construction

Lower Merion School District Demographic Study 36 Standard Cohort-Survival Enrollment Projection Worksheet

DISTRICT NAME: Lower Merion School District

COUNTY: Montgomery

DATA ISSUES: Enrollments are from the 10th Day reports. "s" = survival rate Births 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th K-5 K-5 PK PK PK PK-5 6th 7th 8th 6-8 6-8 9th 10th 11th 12th 9–12 9-12 PK K-12 K-12 PK-12 School 5 Sch Yrs. K Gr. Gr. Gr. Gr. Gr. Subt. EUG Total SCSE 3 yrs. 4yrs. Total Gr. Gr. Gr. Subt. MUG Total Gr. Gr. Gr. Gr. Subt. SUG Total Subt. Subt. Total Total Year Ago "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" (excl. PK) "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" excl. SCSE w/ SCSE

HISTORIC DATA 2011-12 604 0.684 413 585 556 564 568 600 3286 0 3286 0 0 0 3286 564 564 600 1728 0 1728 573 589 635 549 2346 0 2346 0 7360 7360 7360 1.458 1.050 1.029 1.028 1.044 1.050 1.051 1.037 1.093 1.010 1.020 1.006 2012-13 570 0.768 438 602 614 572 580 593 3408 0 3408 0 0 0 3408 630 593 585 1808 0 1808 656 579 601 639 2475 0 2475 0 7691 7691 7691 1.438 1.023 1.042 1.023 1.014 1.017 1.051 1.013 1.050 1.032 1.014 1.010 2013-14 577 0.778 449 630 616 640 585 588 3508 0 3508 0 0 0 3508 603 662 601 1866 0 1866 614 677 587 607 2485 0 2485 0 7859 7859 7859 1.383 1.044 1.071 1.031 1.036 1.037 1.002 0.997 1.068 0.993 0.991 1.017 2014-15 562 0.808 454 621 658 660 660 606 3659 0 3659 0 0 0 3659 610 604 660 1874 0 1874 642 610 671 597 2520 0 2520 0 8053 8053 8053 1.480 1.042 1.030 1.032 1.041 1.023 1.002 1.013 1.077 1.009 1.030 1.015 2015-16 549 0.847 465 672 647 678 681 687 3830 0 3830 0 0 0 3830 620 611 612 1843 0 1843 711 648 628 681 2668 0 2668 0 8341 8341 8341 1.422 1.022 1.019 1.003 1.013 1.009 1.010 1.005 1.080 1.020 0.995 1.018 2016-17 566 0.710 402 661 687 659 680 690 3779 0 3779 0 0 0 3779 693 626 614 1933 0 1933 661 725 645 639 2670 0 2670 0 8382 8382 8382 6 Yr Average 0.766 % Pop % 1Yr 3&4YO % 1Yr 4YO % Pop % Pop Survival Rate 0.766 1.436 1.036 1.038 1.023 1.030 5 Yr 0.00% 0% 0% 1.027 1.023 1.013 5 Yr 0.00% 1.075 1.008 1.005 1.016 5 Yr 0.00% Change # Students 493 493 493 205 205 324 324 1022 Change % Students 15% 15% 15% 12% 12% 14% 14% 14% 5-YR PROJECTIONS 2017-18 543 0.766 416 577 685 713 674 700 3766 0 3766 0 0 0 3766 709 709 634 2052 0 2052 660 666 729 656 2711 0 2711 0 8529 8529 8529 1.436 1.036 1.038 1.023 1.030 1.027 1.023 1.013 1.075 1.008 1.005 1.016 2018-19 533 0.766 408 597 598 711 730 694 3739 0 3739 0 0 0 3739 719 725 718 2163 0 2163 682 665 670 741 2757 0 2757 0 8659 8659 8659 1.436 1.036 1.038 1.023 1.030 1.027 1.023 1.013 1.075 1.008 1.005 1.016 2019-20 569 0.766 436 586 619 621 728 752 3742 0 3742 0 0 0 3742 713 736 735 2184 0 2184 772 687 669 681 2809 0 2809 0 8734 8734 8734 1.436 1.036 1.038 1.023 1.030 1.027 1.023 1.013 1.075 1.008 1.005 1.016 2020-21 604 0.766 463 626 608 643 636 749 3724 0 3724 0 0 0 3724 772 730 745 2247 0 2247 790 778 691 680 2938 0 2938 0 8909 8909 8909 6 Yr Avg 1.436 1.036 1.038 1.023 1.030 1.027 1.023 1.013 1.075 1.008 1.005 1.016 2021-22 561 0.766 429 664 649 631 658 655 3685 0 3685 0 0 0 3685 770 790 739 2299 0 2299 801 796 782 702 3082 0 3082 0 9066 9066 9066

Change # Students -94 -94 -94 366 366 412 412 684 Change % Students -2% -2% -2% 19% 19% 15% 15% 8.2% KEY to Number Colors The above information is prepared and certified by a qualified demographer. 99 Standard number with no modifications to methodology 99 Provisional, but uncertified births from the PA Department of Health Firm Name: Sundance Associates 117 Greenvale Ct. Cherry Hill NJ 08034 99 Births projected as an average of the prior 6 years, including provisional data…and projected students resulting from this "less accurate" average Name: George B. Sundell Tel 856-755-0174 Email: [email protected] 99 Students per Grade Level added for residential development Signature: Date: November 2, 2016

6-10 YR PROJECTIONS NOT CONSIDERED RELIABLE 1.008 1.005 1.016 2022-23 561 0.766 430 617 688 673 646 677 3731 0 3731 0 0 0 3731 672 788 800 2260 0 2260 795 807 800 795 3198 0 3198 0 9189 9189 9189 6 Yr Avg 1.436 1.036 1.038 1.023 1.030 1.027 1.023 1.013 1.075 1.008 1.005 1.016 2023-24 561 0.766 430 617 639 715 689 665 3755 0 3755 0 0 0 3755 696 688 798 2181 0 2181 860 801 812 813 3286 0 3286 0 9222 9222 9222 Continued 1.436 1.036 1.038 1.023 1.030 1.027 1.023 1.013 1.075 1.008 1.005 1.016 2024-25 561 0.766 430 617 639 664 732 710 3791 0 3791 0 0 0 3791 683 712 697 2091 0 2091 858 867 805 825 3355 0 3355 0 9237 9237 9237 1.436 1.036 1.038 1.023 1.030 1.027 1.023 1.013 1.075 1.008 1.005 1.016 2025-26 561 0.766 430 617 639 664 679 753 3783 0 3783 0 0 0 3783 729 699 721 2148 0 2148 749 864 872 818 3304 0 3304 0 9234 9234 9234 1.436 1.036 1.038 1.023 1.030 1.027 1.023 1.013 1.075 1.008 1.005 1.016 2026-27 561 0.766 430 617 639 664 680 699 3729 0 3729 0 0 0 3729 774 746 708 2227 0 2227 775 755 869 886 3285 0 3285 0 9241 9241 9241

Change # Students 43 43 43 -72 -72 203 203 175 Change % Students 1% 1% 1% -3% -3% 6% 6% 2%

Adjusted for Impact of New Housing Cohort-Survival Enrollment Projection Worksheet - District

DISTRICT NAME: Lower Merion School District

COUNTY: Montgomery

FALL REPORT AND Enrollments are from the 10th Day reports. "s" = survival rate Births 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th K-5 K-5 PK PK PK PK-5 6th 7th 8th 6-8 6-8 9th 10th 11th 12th 9–12 9-12 PK K-12 K-12 PK-12 School 5 Yrs. K Gr. Gr. Gr. Gr. Gr. Subt. SCSE Total SCSE 3 yrs. 4yrs. Total Gr. Gr. Gr. Subt. SCSE Total Gr. Gr. Gr. Gr. Subt. SCSE Total Subt. Subt. Total Total Year Ago "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" (excl. PK) "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" "s" excl. SCSE w/ SCSE V to 2 decimal places New Children 5-YR PROJECTIONS PLUS NEW HOUSING Cum Yr Add + Resid 8 7.81 888847 0 88823 0 888831 0 102 102 2017-18 543 0.766 424 585 693 721 682 708 3813 0 3813 0 0 0 3813 717 717 642 2075 0 2075 668 674 737 663 2742 0 2742 0 8630 8630 8630 1.436 1.036 1.038 1.023 1.030 1.027 1.023 1.013 1.075 1.008 1.005 1.016 + Resid 3 2.73 333316 0 3338 0 333311 0 137 35 2018-19 533 0.766 411 611 609 722 741 705 3799 0 3799 0 0 0 3799 730 736 729 2195 0 2195 693 676 680 752 2800 0 2800 0 8794 8794 8794 1.436 1.036 1.038 1.023 1.030 1.027 1.023 1.013 1.075 1.008 1.005 1.016 + Resid 3 2.71 333316 0 3338 0 333311 0 172 35 2019-20 569 0.766 439 593 636 635 742 765 3810 0 3810 0 0 0 3810 727 749 748 2225 0 2225 786 701 682 694 2863 0 2863 0 8898 8898 8898 1.436 1.036 1.038 1.023 1.030 1.027 1.023 1.013 1.075 1.008 1.005 1.016 + Resid 5 4.86 555529 0 55515 0 555519 0 235 63 2020-21 604 0.766 467 635 619 665 655 768 3810 0 3810 0 0 0 3810 791 749 764 2304 0 2304 809 797 710 698 3014 0 3014 0 9128 9128 9128 1.436 1.036 1.038 1.023 1.030 1.027 1.023 1.013 1.075 1.008 1.005 1.016 + Resid 0000000 0 0000 0 00000 0 235 0 2021-22 561 0.766 429 671 658 643 681 674 3757 0 3757 0 0 0 3757 789 809 759 2357 0 2357 822 815 801 721 3160 0 3160 0 9274 9274 9274 109 54 72 235 Change # Students -22 -22 -22 424 424 490 490 892 Change % Students -1% -1% -1% 22% 22% 18% 18% 11% New Children 6-10-YR PROJECTIONS PLUS NEW HOUSING NOT CONSIDERED RELIABLE Cum Yr Add + Resid 0000000 0 000 0 0000 0 00 2022-23 561 0.766 430 617 696 683 658 701 3784 0 3784 0 0 0 3784 693 808 820 2320 0 2320 816 828 820 815 3278 0 3278 0 9382 9382 9382 1.436 1.036 1.038 1.023 1.030 1.027 1.023 1.013 1.075 1.008 1.005 1.016 + Resid 0000000 0 0000 0 00000 0 00 2023-24 561 0.766 430 617 639 722 699 678 3785 0 3785 0 0 0 3785 720 709 818 2247 0 2247 882 822 832 833 3369 0 3369 0 9400 9400 9400 1.436 1.036 1.038 1.023 1.030 1.027 1.023 1.013 1.075 1.008 1.005 1.016 + Resid 0000000 0 0000 0 00000 0 00 2024-25 561 0.766 430 617 639 664 739 719 3809 0 3809 0 0 0 3809 696 737 718 2151 0 2151 880 888 826 846 3440 0 3440 0 9399 9399 9399 1.436 1.036 1.038 1.023 1.030 1.027 1.023 1.013 1.075 1.008 1.005 1.016 + Resid 0000000 0 0000 0 00000 0 00 2025-26 561 0.766 430 617 639 664 679 761 3790 0 3790 0 0 0 3790 739 712 746 2198 0 2198 772 886 893 840 3391 0 3391 0 9379 9379 9379 1.436 1.036 1.038 1.023 1.030 1.027 1.023 1.013 1.075 1.008 1.005 1.016 + Resid 000000 0 000 0 0000 0 00 2026-27 561 0.766 430 617 639 664 680 699 3729 0 3729 0 0 0 3729 782 756 721 2259 0 2259 803 778 891 908 3379 0 3379 0 9367 9367 9367

Change # Students -70 -28 -28 -98 -98 219 219 94 Change % Students -1% -1% -1% -4% -4% 7% 7% 1% KEY to Number Colors The above information is prepared and certified by a qualified demographer. 99 Standard number with no modifications to methodology 99 Provisional, but uncertified births from the NJ Department of Health & Senior Services Firm Name: Sundance Associates 117 Greenvale Ct. Cherry Hill NJ 08034 99 Births projected as an average of the prior 6 years, including provisional data…and projected students resulting from this "less accurat" average Name: George B. Sundell Tel 856-755-0174 Email: [email protected] 99 Students per Grade Level added for residential development 99 Cumulative number of special education students to be brought back in-district, included in the count below it Signature: Date: November 2, 2016