Gang violence in Chicago Innova ons in Research and Policy
Aurélie Ouss Homicides in Chicago very concentrated geographically… Homicides in Chicago very concentrated geographically…
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Homicide Rate by Age and Race 200
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• Research - Policy feedback – Research agenda around prac oners’ needs – Diffuse research out of academic circles 1. Generate rigorous evidence of “what works” 2. Insights from behavioral science – Ins tu ons and prac ces with correct models of human behavior 3. Innova ons in data use Mortality rates in the US
Mortality Rate by Cause of Death
700 600 500 400 300 200 100
0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005
Infant mortality (x10) Heart disease Cerebrovascular Homicide (x30) Gang-related homicides in Chicago
80%
70%
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0% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Gang-related Armed Robberies Domes c Alterca ons Who is involved with violence?
Gang-related homicides due to Percent of Crime Commi ed by Age street alterca ons Group, 2009
100% 0.35 90% 0.3 80% 70% 0.25 60% 0.2 50%
Axis Title 40% 0.15 30% 0.1 20% 10% 0.05 0% 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 0
More than 60% of gang-related Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter homicides are due to street alterca ons Violent crime vs. narco cs Property crime What works, for whom and why?
• “Gang violence”: gangs + violence • Impact violence vs. gang iden ty • Secondary Preven on • Mechanisms: reduce impulsive use of violence • And help kids stay engaged in school
• Method: randomized control trials Interven on implemented in Chicago Public Schools in 2009-10 AY
• “Becoming a Man” (BAM) • 27 weeks, in-school group sessions (1 session per wk), 10-15 students per group •Curriculum uses “check-ins,” role-playing, story-telling, homework, group ac vi es to get kids to think about why they’re doing what they’re doing
BAM results: genera ng rigorous evidence • Method: randomized control trial amongst at-risk youth – Sara Heller, Harold Pollack, Roseanna Anders, Jens Ludwig – Pilot year: 800 youth • Results: – 44% reduction in violent crime arrests during program year – Increases school engagement by around 7-8%—a critical outcome for long-term crime prevention. • The program cost around $1,100 per participant, while its impacts on criminal behavior generated benefits to society that are valued on the order of $3,600 to $34,000 per participant. • Adding on math tutoring
Insights from Behavioral Science
• People tend to make systema c mistakes – Don’t have all informa on on top of their mind – Get derailed from good intensions – Don’t get feedback • Use psychology to design be er decision-making environments • Improve policy design by being more realis c about human behavior • Applica ons to police accountability: – A endance to beat mee ngs – Outcomes of call-ins – Police feedback Hassle-free community involvement Plan making How meaningful feedback helps Predic ve analy cs
• Big ques on = who? • Important if limited resources – Financial, me, pa ence… • Data usually used: Crime numbers, policing numbers… • Can also be other places • Matching administra ve data • More computa onal power allow more sta s cal sophis ca on • Individual-level predic ons and neighborhood-level analyses • Transparency: all data is available in one place Chicago Data Portal Chicago Data Portal: Crimes Chicago data: 311 calls
Final thoughts: mul ple incremental changes vs. one “home run”
– Each interven on will not alone solve the problem of gang violence in Chicago – Goal: op mal por olio of interven ons – We need to be thinking about the por olio of strategies we can rely on rather than looking for a one-size fits all approach – Strategy: 1. Policy and research 2. Rigorous evidence 3. Realism about human behavior 4. Broader understanding of what data helps and how to use it